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Thursday, December 22, 2022

OT Soccer Thread - Hi Ho Hi Ho it’s Back to Club Football We Go

Premier League - Boxing Day December 26
Serie A - January 4
La Liga - December 29
Bundesliga - January 20
FA Cup - January 6
Champions League - February 14 (Knockout Stage)
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Transfer Window - January 1 to January 31 (some differences within individual nations)

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 22, 2022 at 09:54 PM | 349 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   201. jmurph Posted: January 14, 2023 at 12:27 PM (#6113193)
Not meaning to be argumentative and disrupt the spirit of the thread, and also I'm more than willing to concede that City were generally outplayed over the full 90 today. Silva and Cancelo in particular were terrible (as they have unfortunately been all too often this season after both being great last season).
   202. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 14, 2023 at 12:28 PM (#6113194)
There are two different sub-rules. In one, he has to make a clear attempt to play the ball. If he does, an opponent need only be impacted. It's quite debatable whether Rashford made a clear attempt to play the ball. Under the old interpretation he probably did, but under the new interpretation he may not have.

The second sub-rule requires only an obvious action. It's clear Rashford made an obvious action. However, this rule also requires a defender to be impacted in his ability to play the ball (not merely impacted generally). It's not so clear any City defender's ability to play the ball was impacted.

It's very clear to me City's players were impacted and there was an obvious action by Rashford. However, both those things are not sufficient.
   203. jmurph Posted: January 14, 2023 at 12:28 PM (#6113195)
Can't even fully appreciate the continued Liverpool meltdown because of this! But I'm sure just one more big attacking signing will do the trick for them.
   204. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 14, 2023 at 01:28 PM (#6113202)
That penalty call in the Brentford game was bad too. Just saw it.
   205. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 14, 2023 at 01:51 PM (#6113203)
There's a lot of noise online that a player has to be "physically impacted" by an offside player that interferes with the play but does actually not touch the ball. I don't think this is, or can be, the rule generally (at least not if you say there were no City players "physically impacted" on this play). For example, there have been many plays where on a free kick an offside player tries to head the ball but just misses, drawing the GK to his direction. Drawing the GK was rightly considered interfering with the GK.

The IFAB examples contain plenty of cases where "goalkeeper needs to delay his action to wait and see if the attacking player in an offside position touches/plays the ball". These cases might have all been a little more obvious in terms of GK indecision than the play today (though I think the play today Ederson was also pretty clearly having to defend two different players), but they are also interference without obvious "physical impact".

I'm not even sure what physical impact means in this context. A defender's mental state will affect his physical actions, obviously, so it must mean something more than that if it is intended to mean anything at all. The only thing I can think of is that the defender's physical actions were obviously different than they would have been without the offside player. Even if so, I think that pretty clearly applies to the play today as well. Those claiming that all the City players would have taken more or less the same actions without Rashford changing his run to stand over the ball must be watching a different game.
   206. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 14, 2023 at 03:50 PM (#6113210)
I missed the United-City match because somehow my last semester of law school is also my most difficult. Anyhoozy, I'm starting to feel like there's someone on high pulling strings for Arsenal, and I don't even believe there's anyone on high. Draw at home to Newcastle? No worries, City will play like crap and find a way to lose to United, keeping the Gunners at least five points clear no matter what happens tomorrow.
   207. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 15, 2023 at 11:36 AM (#6113243)
I am now missing the North London Derby because I'm sitting in the longest, dumbest, and most pointless Zoom meeting of all time. We're now in hour four of a woman reading off a series of powerpoint slides, often five or six times each.
   208. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 15, 2023 at 11:46 AM (#6113245)
####### Lloris. Has an excellent World Cup and goes right back to doing this #### for Tottenham.
   209. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 15, 2023 at 11:57 AM (#6113246)
Arsenal has two great shots and one goal. The goal did not come from either of those shots. This is a weird game sometimes.
   210. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 15, 2023 at 12:18 PM (#6113249)
Arsenal are current favorites to win the league, and will still be favorites after the game unless Spurs come back to force at least a draw.
   211. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 15, 2023 at 01:30 PM (#6113258)
I didn't get to see much of the second half because of this effing Zoom meeting, but the first half was a whipping of the professional grade.
   212. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 15, 2023 at 02:07 PM (#6113264)
I didn't get to see much of the second half because of this effing Zoom meeting, but the first half was a whipping of the professional grade.

As usual Tottenham were much improved in the second half, but Ramsdale made a few good saves. The xG for the game ended up being about even.
   213. SoSH U at work Posted: January 15, 2023 at 02:23 PM (#6113267)
Newcastle's 1-0 win featured Mitrovic's penalty waved off because the ball bounced off his plant foot before going in.
   214. jmurph Posted: January 15, 2023 at 02:38 PM (#6113269)
Hilarious quote from Conte on Arteta and Arsenal (before the match):
"It’s not difficult if you have time and patience. It’s normal when you work with the same young players and after four years they develop and become stronger."

Arteta just passed the 3 year mark at Arsenal, Conte himself has never managed anywhere for 4 years (one 3 year stint, several 2, couple 1s) so I don't really know what he's going on about there.
   215. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 15, 2023 at 03:47 PM (#6113274)
Arteta just passed the 3 year mark at Arsenal, Conte himself has never managed anywhere for 4 years (one 3 year stint, several 2, couple 1s) so I don't really know what he's going on about there.


I know it goes against the pattern these days, but I certainly hope Arteta sticks around a lot longer than that. This is the best it's felt to be an Arsenal fan since before Wegner got senile.
   216. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 15, 2023 at 04:47 PM (#6113283)
betting odds
Winner
arsenal        53.5
city           39

united          5.5
newcastle       1.5
field           0.5

Top 4
arsenal        97.5
city           97

united         78

newcastle      54

liverpool      33
tottenham      23

brighton        8.5
chelsea         7.5

brentford       1
field           0.5
  
Relegation
bournemouth    74

everton        57
southampton    51

forest         26
wolves         25.5
leeds          22
leicester      19.5
west ham       16.5

palace          6

villa           1.2
brentford       0.8
fulham          0.5

   217. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 15, 2023 at 05:06 PM (#6113287)
united 5.5
newcastle 1.5
field 0.5


Hey, wait. I got a new complaint.

I get that United has a game in hand, but Newcastle is far better than MU.
   218. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 15, 2023 at 05:35 PM (#6113289)
I get that United has a game in hand, but Newcastle is far better than MU.
The betting odds don't think so, and neither does 538. Or elo. In fact, nobody thinks so. They've performed better than United over the first half of the season on underlying numbers, but even that has only been by a little bit once you regress penalties a bit.

Even when they played head to head United outplayed them (though it was close, and United were at home). Honestly I'm not seeing it.

United also has an easier remaining schedule (played City twice already, where Newcastle has played Fulham twice), plus a game in hand.

Most importantly, a half season of games is just a sample--it should not be thought of as true talent. It has to be regressed towards overall expected talent, where United is expected to be better than Newcastle for good reason.

All that said, Newcastle is pretty close to United right now, but the game in hand and the easier schedule makes quite a bit of difference too.
   219. SoSH U at work Posted: January 15, 2023 at 05:47 PM (#6113292)
Most importantly, a half season of games is just a sample--it should not be thought of as true talent.


For the record, it's not really a half season. Newcastle performed better in the second half of the 2021-22 season.

But I think the forecasts are fairly reasonable, for the reasons you say and because Man U seems to be playing at a pretty high level right now.

   220. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: January 15, 2023 at 06:46 PM (#6113299)
I get that United has a game in hand, but Newcastle is far better than MU.


As a non-bettor do teams like ManU (Yankees, Lakers, Cowboys) get a boost of any sort just by virtue of the breadth of their fandom (and fears of fans of other teams)?

Relegation
everton 57

I need a drink or five.
   221. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 15, 2023 at 06:55 PM (#6113302)
The teams have been very close in xGD over the last 38 games or so. The second half of the last season they were roughly identical according to fbref (united with an insignificant lead), and understat had United as ahead by a small but significant margin. United has the slightest edge in xPoints over the last 38 games.

Regardless, just looking at performance over the last 38 games you would probably say Newcastle has been better, but it's at worst close. The biggest difference is in actual GD, where Newcastle has been much better.
   222. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 15, 2023 at 06:58 PM (#6113303)
United probably gets a small boost, but unless it's a one-off game with huge betting amounts (like the superbowl... not sure there is anything like that in soccer maybe the CL final or WC final) it's not going to be too significant because the houses are repeat players and over the long run they make more money letting fans overbet on teams like United rather than getting even money on both sides.
   223. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 15, 2023 at 06:59 PM (#6113304)
In fact, nobody thinks so.


Nobody but me. /humanbeinz
   224. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 15, 2023 at 07:00 PM (#6113305)
I need a drink or five.


Hasn't it been like 70 years since Everton was relegated?
   225. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: January 15, 2023 at 07:51 PM (#6113309)
Everton have been in the top flight since 1954-55.

Yup, definitely going for the sixth drink.
   226. Richard Posted: January 16, 2023 at 02:25 AM (#6113331)
Last non top flight seasons for PL clubs:

1915 Arsenal
1954 Everton
1962 Liverpool
1975 Man Utd
1978 Tottenham
1989 Chelsea
2002 Man City
2012 Southampton, West Ham
2013 Palace
2014 Leicester
2017 Newcastle, Brighton
2018 Wolves
2019 Villa
2020 Leeds
2021 Brentford
2022 Fulham, Bournemouth, Forest

Everton will escape. As usual.
   227. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 17, 2023 at 03:55 PM (#6113492)
Having now read many, many people's somewhat informed opinions of the Rashford offside play (and discounting all uninformed opinions), I am unpleasantly surprised that probably more than half these somewhat informed people think the goal was correctly given under the current rules. Of these that think it was correctly called, probably the majority again (but a minority overall) think that giving a goal was appropriate and the rule is fine as is.

Needless to say, I disagree on both points, but very vehemently on the second. I don't think that was correctly called a goal under the current rules as I have understood them to be interpreted, and more importantly, no way in hell should it be a goal under any reasonable set of rules.
   228. SoSH U at work Posted: January 17, 2023 at 04:11 PM (#6113497)
and more importantly, no way in hell should it be a goal under any reasonable set of rules.


Absolutely.
   229. Mefisto Posted: January 18, 2023 at 04:34 PM (#6113600)
Yet again I just can't understand how VAR is supposed to work with penalties.
   230. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 18, 2023 at 04:36 PM (#6113601)
Recalling that Newcastle penalty not given a couple weeks ago. Just had a similar one not given to United. These plays are pretty common where sometimes they are called and sometimes not. I was a little more surprised that this one today was not given on VAR.
   231. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 18, 2023 at 04:42 PM (#6113602)
Arsenal caught a small break there too, with Casemiro now missing their game on yellow accumulation.
   232. SoSH U at work Posted: January 18, 2023 at 04:52 PM (#6113603)

Recalling that Newcastle penalty not given a couple weeks ago. Just had a similar one not given to United. These plays are pretty common where sometimes they are called and sometimes not. I was a little more surprised that this one today was not given on VAR.


What happened?

   233. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 18, 2023 at 04:53 PM (#6113604)
That was a perfect free kick. Truth is though is that United hardly deserves to win this game the way they've played in the second half. Sitting on a lead while not playing well did not work out for them today.
   234. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 18, 2023 at 04:56 PM (#6113605)
What a ####### amazing tackle by AWB. After Casemiro not expecting the ball two feet from the goal line with nobody in front of him. Heh.

edit: that Casemiro "miss" has an xG of 0.60 on infogol. That's way too high, considering, but still what a chance missed.
   235. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 18, 2023 at 04:59 PM (#6113606)
What happened?
Nothing that special. Pass to McTominay who was running in the box and got a clear first touch on it (and would have been able to reach it after the touch) before the defender appeared to lightly clip his leg whereupon he went down. Defender never touched the ball.
   236. Mefisto Posted: January 18, 2023 at 05:00 PM (#6113607)
AWB made an equally impressive one in the first half, though it wasn't as important.
   237. Mefisto Posted: January 18, 2023 at 07:33 PM (#6113614)
That was a really bad result for United -- gave away 2 points and lost a key player for the Arsenal game on Sunday.
   238. jmurph Posted: January 19, 2023 at 09:51 AM (#6113639)
Manchester City are apparently selling Gundogan to Barcelona. This doesn't make any sense at all for either team.

(Honestly, which rich team is more poorly run than Barcelona?)
   239. spivey Posted: January 19, 2023 at 10:19 AM (#6113642)
I think it makes a ton of sense for City actually, assuming it happens. They got all of his best years, have guys who need more playing time who are also world class, and this gives them a chance to refresh and get their squad younger in the center of the pitch, which they need to do (KDB getting older and Silva could maybe leave).

Barcelona I feel like must not have any analytics department. They seem to sign guys for how great they've been rather than how good they'll be going forward.
   240. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: January 19, 2023 at 10:35 AM (#6113644)
(Honestly, which rich team is more poorly run than Barcelona?)


Until the last 6 months or so Manchester United could step into that.

And I don't think we can dismiss Juventus in this discussion.
   241. jmurph Posted: January 19, 2023 at 11:21 AM (#6113646)
I think it makes a ton of sense for City actually, assuming it happens. They got all of his best years, have guys who need more playing time who are also world class, and this gives them a chance to refresh and get their squad younger in the center of the pitch, which they need to do (KDB getting older and Silva could maybe leave).

Well I'm not seeing any indication they're going to replace him now, so it's an immediate loss of depth. If they replace him then sure, yeah, I'm all for it.

   242. jmurph Posted: January 19, 2023 at 11:23 AM (#6113647)
And I don't think we can dismiss Juventus in this discussion.

Good call, though I think they've slipped quite a bit financially (still very rich obviously).
   243. jmurph Posted: January 19, 2023 at 11:31 AM (#6113648)
Chelsea also gaining steam, for the record.
   244. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 19, 2023 at 02:54 PM (#6113668)
Chelsea also gaining steam, for the record.


I think you have to give Chelsea a pass until the new ownership group has been in place a little longer, no?
   245. jmurph Posted: January 19, 2023 at 03:09 PM (#6113670)
9 minute mark, still 0-0, I couldn't be more sure of a Spurs win today.
   246. jmurph Posted: January 19, 2023 at 03:10 PM (#6113671)
I think you have to give Chelsea a pass until the new ownership group has been in place a little longer, no?

Oh definitely, I just think they've been a mess so far, seemingly no plan at all.
   247. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 19, 2023 at 03:45 PM (#6113673)
Spurs score from the opposing keeper making a horrible mistake! I prefer being on the other side of that.
   248. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 19, 2023 at 03:46 PM (#6113675)
Emerson scores? The actual ####?
   249. jmurph Posted: January 19, 2023 at 03:46 PM (#6113676)
Well for me Ederson's ratio of hollywood passes to horrorshow errors has tipped in a direction I don't particularly love.

And then that. Sure yeah makes sense, ballgame.
   250. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 19, 2023 at 03:49 PM (#6113677)
lol at City. Spurs looked outclsassed early but have really grown into it. Then the GK mistake and now this. City is in trouble!
   251. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 19, 2023 at 03:55 PM (#6113678)
I dunno, I actually didn't think Spurs looked outclassed at any point. Which is weird for this season.
   252. jmurph Posted: January 19, 2023 at 04:06 PM (#6113679)
Agree that "outclassed" is a bit strong but City were clearly the better team prior to the Ederson mistake.

Then they immediately melted down to allow a second, similar in that way to the United game this past weekend after the first goal.
   253. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 19, 2023 at 04:12 PM (#6113680)
Well, that didn't take long for Spurs to #### it up.
   254. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 19, 2023 at 04:18 PM (#6113682)
And Ederson atones for the first half error with that save on Perisic.
   255. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 19, 2023 at 04:23 PM (#6113683)
Mahrez just decided to take over the game this half, I guess.
   256. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 19, 2023 at 04:26 PM (#6113685)
WTF Spurs I work for 30 minutes and they are down?
   257. spivey Posted: January 19, 2023 at 04:26 PM (#6113686)
Lloris is so finished. I guess I'm happy for him he had the dead cat bounce in the World Cup. But he needs to be benched yesterday.
   258. spivey Posted: January 19, 2023 at 04:27 PM (#6113687)
WTF Spurs I work for 30 minutes and they are down?


City can do that to anyone, and Spurs are absolutely no exception.
   259. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 19, 2023 at 04:27 PM (#6113688)
I meant outclassed in the first 10-20 minutes only. Anyway, it's way moot now.
   260. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 19, 2023 at 04:48 PM (#6113694)
Great pass from Lenglet to Mahrez.
   261. The Original SJ Posted: January 20, 2023 at 10:23 AM (#6113736)
Hi, I used to post here. I am a soccer fan now.

Anyway, you guys play football manager? I dipped my toe in last year on the switch, then jumped in the deep end on my macbook with the full version. I had success last year bringing Ipswich from the third level to the EPL, but they became a yoyo-club. This year, I chose to start a save with Leeds

Question: I seem to be good at it but I do not know why, but since it looks like I will qualify for Europe in Year 1, what is the best time to convince ownership to increase the transfer budget. Has anyone had any success with this? I really need another central defender in the worst kind of way, I am dramatically out-peforming xG in both directions.

Anyway, I will hang up and listen.
   262. jmurph Posted: January 20, 2023 at 04:36 PM (#6113790)
Whoooooaaaaaa, 15 point deduction for Juventus for financial shenanigans.

EDIT: I think they are under two separate investigations and I'm not sure which one this punishment is for. Unaccounted for wages during covid financial restrictions, I think?
   263. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 20, 2023 at 04:58 PM (#6113793)
Whoooooaaaaaa, 15 point deduction for Juventus for financial shenanigans.


I think maybe we have a winner in the "worst-run wealthy team" sweepstakes. Yowza.
   264. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 20, 2023 at 05:02 PM (#6113794)
Also, Fabio Paratici, former sports director at Juve, banned for 2 and a half years. He's now director of football ops at Spurs, and nobody knows how this does or doesn't affect him outside Italy.
   265. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: January 20, 2023 at 05:14 PM (#6113798)
Anyway, you guys play football manager?


I've only dabbled since the halcyon days of Championship Manager 3 and my Wolves save with 17-year-old Robbie Keane. If you're looking for advice, I've found the YouTube channel of 'Zealand' has a lot of entertaining tutorials and deep dives into how FM works.
   266. jmurph Posted: January 20, 2023 at 05:19 PM (#6113800)
I think maybe we have a winner in the "worst-run wealthy team" sweepstakes. Yowza.

They apparently lost $246 million last season, and over $500 million combined over the past 3 seasons, so it's possible they're simply no longer rich.

   267. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: January 21, 2023 at 02:55 AM (#6113820)
The Deloitte rankings that came out the other day had them ranked 11th in revenue, just behind Arsenal. They aren't quite the giant they used to be (outside of Italy), but not considering them rich would be a step to far, imo. Revenue is a far bigger consideration than profit, in terms of how rich a club is. A team spending beyond its means doesn't really change how rich they are (as long as they can avoid bankruptcy). Otherwise, you end up with a situation where Barcelona, or any of the Oil teams, are not considered rich, which is just patently nonsense.
   268. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 21, 2023 at 07:39 AM (#6113822)
That was a strange offside. Silva should have scored first time to make it moot, and Havertz was behind Silva when he was offside except not totally behind the ball.
   269. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 22, 2023 at 09:51 AM (#6113892)
Not only did Wolves not have a shot in that first half, they didn't seem to have anything that had any hope of ever leading to a shot. City looked a bit out of synch too so it was a pretty dull half. I'll probably focus on Leedds/Brentford in the second half.
   270. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 22, 2023 at 11:28 AM (#6113899)
For reasons I'm at a loss to understand, if I want to watch EPL matches through my PS4, I can only do so through Telemundo. So I'm settling in for yet another Arsenal match en español. Though about half the ads are in English, which is interesting.
   271. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 22, 2023 at 11:42 AM (#6113902)
If Arsenal wins today, City/Arsenal combined will be given about 98% to win the title.
   272. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 22, 2023 at 12:10 PM (#6113906)
I have to say, Nketiah has been a pleasant surprise since Jesus went down. I was really worried about him, but here he is with yet another goal.
   273. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 22, 2023 at 12:51 PM (#6113910)
United has two goals out of very little offense. Arsenal still has a very strong chance to win this game for being the much better team this far.
   274. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 22, 2023 at 12:54 PM (#6113911)
This game has been absolutely bonkers.
   275. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 22, 2023 at 12:57 PM (#6113913)
Any word on why Arsenal took out White? Because I'm watching in Spanish I never heard an explanation I understood.
   276. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 22, 2023 at 01:06 PM (#6113915)
It would be so Arsenal to lose this match on some bullshit like that.
   277. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 22, 2023 at 01:15 PM (#6113916)
they need to card this ##### for simulation
   278. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 22, 2023 at 01:21 PM (#6113918)
I guess the answer to the question, "How long can the ball ping around MU's box without ever going into the goal?" is "About 29 minutes."
   279. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 22, 2023 at 01:27 PM (#6113919)
I know I said I would be pleased to get 8 points from the last 4 matches, but not to get 3 out of this match would have been a #####. Arsenal took 24 shots to United's 5, created 18 chances to United's 3, possessed the ball 58% of the time, and generally looked like the much better side. Nothing like the Newcastle match, where the opponent's defense lowered on Arsenal like a wall of PNW clouds and just smothered them.

Eleven points from four matches since the break. Not bad.
   280. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 22, 2023 at 01:28 PM (#6113920)
Arsenal probably needed to win to stay favorites to win the league. Well deserved on their part today. United would have been very lucky to escape with a draw.

A fun game the way it played out but United has to be much better than that to hold on to a CL spot. Even against Arsenal in London, which is clearly going to be one of their two or three hardest games of the year.


   281. Mefisto Posted: January 22, 2023 at 01:28 PM (#6113921)
That was a great game. Arsenal deserved the win, but I thought we might pull out a draw.
   282. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 22, 2023 at 01:34 PM (#6113922)
EPL winner odds:
arsenal    55
city       43
united      1.25
newcastle   0.75
   283. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 22, 2023 at 01:39 PM (#6113923)
I think I hurt my shoulder celebrating that last goal.
   284. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 22, 2023 at 02:26 PM (#6113929)
Relegation odds (fulham still plays tomorrow):

bournemouth    74

everton        57
southampton    56

wolves         26
forest         25.5
leicester      21.5
leeds          19
west ham       13.5

palace          5.5

villa           0.75
brentford       0.75
fulham          0.5
   285. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 22, 2023 at 02:34 PM (#6113930)
Top 4 odds (tottenham still plays tomorrow):
arsenal      98.5
city         98

united       75

newcastle    55

liverpool    30
tottenham    21.5

brighton     10.5
chelsea      10

field         1.5

   286. jmurph Posted: January 22, 2023 at 02:44 PM (#6113931)
Everton will surely survive, it's what they do, but I don't see them as obviously better than any of the teams currently outside the relegation zone other than Forest and maybe Wolves. So yeah, they should finish above them, but it looks like it will be pretty close (especially since Forest has 6 more points than Everton already).
   287. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 22, 2023 at 03:23 PM (#6113932)
united 75

newcastle 55


Sing it with me now:

Newcastle United is better
Than Manchester United
As one can see
From their relative performances
In North London
   288. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 23, 2023 at 12:23 PM (#6114024)
Anybody curious about how Fulham can be so high in the table despite being a lousy team--the obvious one is penalties: +4 which might be the highest in the league which is very unusual for a poor team. (Mitigated by Mitrovic missing a few.) Also apparently teams are racking up reds against them. That can't be sustainable.
   289. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 23, 2023 at 01:50 PM (#6114031)
I did in fact hurt my shoulder celebrating that last goal. I can't reach anything over my head in the kitchen.
   290. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 23, 2023 at 03:48 PM (#6114051)
United was missing Casemiro and probably would have played quite a bit better on most other days. Even still, I don't see how anyone could have watched that game and thought it was at all close except for the scoreline. People are making a big deal about the last 30 minutes or whatever, but Arsenal was way better than United for the first 60 minutes too.

The scoreline really biases fans and pundits from seeing overall quality of a team's performance, whether in game or after it is over. I'm continually surprised by how strong the effect is.

edit: and I'm just remembering now that the announcers on whatever channel I was watching with 15 minutes left had the silliest exchange on this point. The play-by-play guy asked the other whether the teams might be settling in for a draw. At that point in the game United might have been quite happy to do so, with a draw on the road considered a median event for them coming in and their performance in no way justifying it. Arsenal however? No effing way they were interested in settling for a draw having been far, far, better to that point in the game, currently having the run of play, having close to two points as their expectation coming in, having amassed tons of wins this year and expecting another one coming to the game. And their position in the table is in no way safe with City lurking behind them, and they know it. Why would they ever be settling for a draw right then? To even suggest it was ludicrous.

To his extremely minor credit the colour guy implied that Arsenal probably would not be happy with a draw, but it was so tepid he gets very little credit.
   291. Mefisto Posted: January 23, 2023 at 04:52 PM (#6114060)
Speaking as a United fan, I was *hoping* for a draw.
   292. SoSH U at work Posted: January 23, 2023 at 07:03 PM (#6114081)
edit: and I'm just remembering now that the announcers on whatever channel I was watching with 15 minutes left had the silliest exchange on this point. The play-by-play guy asked the other whether the teams might be settling in for a draw. At that point in the game United might have been quite happy to do so, with a draw on the road considered a median event for them coming in and their performance in no way justifying it.


I heard that. Wasn't it like when Arsenal had the ball inside the penalty area for minutes at a time?
   293. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 24, 2023 at 08:57 AM (#6114161)
The scoreline really biases fans and pundits from seeing overall quality of a team's performance, whether in game or after it is over. I'm continually surprised by how strong the effect is.


Yeah, and Arsenal could have won that match 5-0 on the exact same quality of play.
   294. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 24, 2023 at 04:43 PM (#6114230)
Inadvertent handball by Southampton player sent it to the knee of the Newcastle defender and in for an own goal. Ruled out but not clear why. The announcers say that maybe it came off the attacker's own arm, which would have made ruling the ball out squarely within the handball rules. It was very hard to tell.

edit: I also didn't realize these EFL semis were still two-legged. Make them single elimination and play them at Wembley already.
   295. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 26, 2023 at 02:45 PM (#6114622)
One datapoint on the expected relative quality of Manchester United and Newcastle will be the betting odds for the EFL final, where for the moment it looks like Manchester United is 57% or so to take the trophy over Newcastle if they face each other in the final.
   296. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 27, 2023 at 02:41 PM (#6114796)
In what could be an interesting preview of the 2026 World Cup, the 2024 Copa America will be held in the USA with 16 teams, 6 from Concacaf.
   297. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 28, 2023 at 03:31 PM (#6114892)
Reading has beaten Manchester United only once ever, in the FA cup back in 1927. The main reason is that Reading has spent essentially their entire history outside the top flight, whereas it's the opposite for Manchester United. They also just missed each other in the 30s where Manchester United spent a bunch of seasons in the second tier.

I think they only played three seasons in the same division, but in each of those Fergie years United won the league while Rading was either relegated or nearly so. Even then Reading didn't do too badly, drawing 2 of the 6 matchups and losing the other 4 by just one goal.

Still scoreless today but it is very one-sided.

edit: Reading actually managed 8th in 2006-2007, and 6th in GD. Pretty impressive if it was not a fluke. They were relegated their other two years in the prem (2007-2008 and 2012-2013). United also won one of the four games by 2 goals, the other three by a single goal.
   298. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 28, 2023 at 04:30 PM (#6114907)
Pet peeve: a striker allowing the ball to go through his legs and then deflecting it with the back part of the instep should not be called a "back heel". It's completely different from a reverse direction pass where someone actually uses the back of the heel.

edit: and in the vast majority of cases, the heel is not used at all on these plays. Fred didn't use his heel.
   299. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 28, 2023 at 04:32 PM (#6114908)
Here's a real back heel goal.
   300. Baldrick Posted: January 29, 2023 at 06:30 AM (#6114949)
edit: Reading actually managed 8th in 2006-2007, and 6th in GD. Pretty impressive if it was not a fluke. They were relegated their other two years in the prem (2007-2008 and 2012-2013). United also won one of the four games by 2 goals, the other three by a single goal.

It wasn't a fluke. They were genuinely very good that year. Coming up off a record points total in the Championship and basically relying on the same squad. In terms of true talent, they probably weren't quite as good as the final table suggested, but they were definitely a deserving mid-table side.

Then they modestly underperformed the following year and got relegated after that crazy run by Fulham in their first Hodgson season just barely overtook them.
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