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Thursday, December 22, 2022

OT Soccer Thread - Hi Ho Hi Ho it’s Back to Club Football We Go

Premier League - Boxing Day December 26
Serie A - January 4
La Liga - December 29
Bundesliga - January 20
FA Cup - January 6
Champions League - February 14 (Knockout Stage)
MLS - February 25
Transfer Window - January 1 to January 31 (some differences within individual nations)

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 22, 2022 at 09:54 PM | 546 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off topic, soccer

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301. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: January 29, 2023 at 08:26 AM (#6114950)

flop?

302. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: January 29, 2023 at 09:23 AM (#6114954)

You know, in 20-odd years of posting here, I think that's the first time I've done the flip thing.

303. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2023 at 09:48 AM (#6114959)

Mitoma has been torching TAA a bit, so Klopp brings in Milner?

304. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2023 at 10:12 AM (#6114960)

That was so obviously a foul on Konate. Could, have been DOGSO too.

305. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2023 at 10:25 AM (#6114961)

Assuming the first half of this year is any indication, there are realistically just 4 teams left that can win the FA Cup. Brighton is one of them.

306. spivey Posted: January 29, 2023 at 10:28 AM (#6114962)

The models are the way they are for a reason, but Liverpool just aren't that good anymore. Feel like they're in the same space that Tottenham have been for the last several years (besides last year) where each match sees their overall ranking in models drop a little bit more.

It'll be interesting to see how the next few years goes.

307. spivey Posted: January 29, 2023 at 10:32 AM (#6114963)

Only saw the last 30 minutes but from the highlights it looks like it was a pretty great game. Matches like this where neither team wants a replay so both are pushing for a victory are often the best type of cup matches.

308. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: January 29, 2023 at 10:46 AM (#6114964)

Matches like this where neither team wants a replay so both are pushing for a victory are often the best type of cup matches.

Well, no replays in the FA cup (at least at this point) this year, but pushing to avoid penalties is a similar thing.

309. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2023 at 11:07 AM (#6114966)

I'm surprised City has only won the FA Cup once under Pep. Spurs haven't won it since '91, and Brighton only reached the final once, in '83.

Since Everton won it in '95, only 3 times has there been a winner outside of Arsenal, Chelsea, United, Liverpool, and City. The latest of those times was a very good Leicester team in 2021 (so, not that different from this year's Brighton maybe). There was also a pretty good Portsmouth team in 2007-2008 (maybe the 7th best team that year), which had a very easy run with the huge exception of United at Old Trafford. The last one was quite unexpected: Wigan in 2013, in a year they got relegated.

So one true surprise and a couple very mild surprises in 25+ years. I would call anyone outside of City, United, Tottenham, and Brighton winning it this year a bigger surprise than any of those other years save Wigan.

310. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2023 at 11:08 AM (#6114967)

Well, no replays in the FA cup (at least at this point) this year,

There are replays this year in the FA Cup for the 3rd and 4th rounds. Liverpool/Brighton would have gone to a replay. There were six replays in the 3rd round, and there will be at least five in the 4th round.

edit: the 1st and 2nd round also had replays.

311. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2023 at 11:15 AM (#6114968)

There are three relevant replays coming up, but so far in the 4th round not a single team from a lower tier has beaten its higher-tier opponent. I wouldn't bet on Wrexham to break that trend.

312. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: January 29, 2023 at 11:18 AM (#6114969)

There are replays this year in the FA Cup for the 3rd and 4th rounds. Liverpool/Brighton would have gone to a replay. There were six replays in the 3rd round, and there will be at least five in the 4th round.

Huh ... the Graun MBM said it would have gone to penalties ... eggs on me for trusting the MBM.

313. spivey Posted: January 29, 2023 at 11:31 AM (#6114970)

Liverpool had to replay last round against Wolves too (controversially)

314. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2023 at 11:39 AM (#6114971)

Wrexham down 0-1 after 2 minutes, and now might have lost both starting center backs. Yikes.

315. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2023 at 12:29 PM (#6114979)

The rest of that half was pretty even. 0-1 for the half is probably par for what you would have expected coming into the game, but Wrexham actually looked a bit better than that especially if you consider missing their defenders.

I would still expect Sheffield United to win this one, and probably by 2 or more goals. But for now at least it's a game.

316. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2023 at 01:11 PM (#6114983)

2-2 and a Sheffield United player sent off in the 7oth minute for an off the ball incident. The incident was hard to see since it was so far away from the camera.

317. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2023 at 01:25 PM (#6114986)

Wrexham has looked the better team up a man, not surprisingly, and they get a goal finally. If they hold on they will be only the 11th non-league team to make the 5th round. None have advanced past the 5th. 8 of those 10 lost to top-flight teams. Last year Boreham Wood lost to Everton. Strangely, one of the other two was a loss by Blyth to third-tier Wrexham in 1978.

edit: 3-3 now! So many poorly defended corners and throw-ins today. 4 of the 6 goals came that way I think.

318. spivey Posted: January 29, 2023 at 01:33 PM (#6114987)

Sheffield United seem like a very good set piece team. They destroyed Burnley earlier this year on a match where they had like legit 3 xG on set pieces.

319. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2023 at 01:39 PM (#6114993)

The xG on that game was not close. Wrexham dominated it--even moreso than I thought watching. Most of it must have come in the second half, where Wrexham came out very strong 11 v 11, and then when they hit a bit of a lull, went up a man and got almost all the good chances again after.

320. Richard Posted: January 29, 2023 at 01:48 PM (#6114995)

Auntbea, One non league side has reached the last 8 since the Cup took on its present format in the 1920s - Lincoln did it in 2016-17, winning at Burnley in the 5th round.

Dreadful from the Blades but they got away with it at the death. They would, I suspect, have won without Davies in goal. Foderingham would not have let that first one go in, and probably done better on the third.

321. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2023 at 03:53 PM (#6115016)

Oops you are right. Lincoln City won in the 5th round, but lost in the 6th (quarterfinals--last 8). I missed that.

322. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: January 29, 2023 at 04:22 PM (#6115025)

I’m watching the Real Madrid-Real Sociedad match and the pace of this game is brutal. Part of it is that Madrid just have basically all of the possession and Socidedad have packed in behind the ball but nothing is happening quickly. It is incredibly slow paced.

323. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 29, 2023 at 05:25 PM (#6115038)

Liverpool probably should have had 2 reds in that game, before the Brighton winner. In addition to the DOGSO shout (and honestly, even if you said no DOGSO it probably at the very least should have been a second yellow on Konate) there was also a really bad tackle by Fabinho. Considering all that, I'm very happy Brighton went through.

The "shoulder-to-shoulder" by the defender is very often simply a foul by the defense, and the Konate play was a pretty egregious example. To make matter much worse he was on a yellow and it probably should have been DOGSO too. Just a very bad miss by the refs and VAR too.

324. jmurph Posted: January 30, 2023 at 07:55 AM (#6115111)

In extremely baffling news Manchester City are apparently sending Cancelo out on loan (with an option to buy) to Bayern. He has had a down year so far but they have absolutely no cover back there. This is ridiculous.

EDIT: Last week's news that Gundogan is off to Barcelona appears to not be true, at least at the moment. Incredible that the entire European continent has like one credible soccer reporter. Can we send them Woj on loan with a buy option?

325. spivey Posted: January 30, 2023 at 09:14 AM (#6115115)

The Cancelo deal seems like it may (?) also stop Tottenham's deal for Pedro Porro. Maybe not, but there's some rumor mill City may try to buy him back now that Cancelo is leaving.

Pep's seemed to always have an attitude of "If you don't want to be here, we want to get you out of the squad asap".

Also, I think from a timing perspective City were due to spend another 50 million on a full back.

326. jmurph Posted: January 30, 2023 at 09:26 AM (#6115117)

Pep's seemed to always have an attitude of "If you don't want to be here, we want to get you out of the squad asap".

He definitely does this, it just seems less than ideal to do it late in the mid-season transfer window when they're already thin back there.

I've seen the Perro talk too but I'm skeptical. Pep has already seen him, I'd be surprised if he's changed his opinion. There is apparently a buy-back clause in there, but again all soccer reporting is fake so who the hell knows.

327. SoSH U at work Posted: January 30, 2023 at 09:42 AM (#6115120)

all soccer reporting is fake so who the hell knows

It's so bad. My club, for obvious reasons, is reportedly on the verge of seemingly hundreds of signings each window. More bizarrely, the fact that virtually all of these are clear BS does not seem to stop many fans from believing this time it's true.

328. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 30, 2023 at 09:52 AM (#6115123)

It's just clickbait, no? To me the real issue isn't that the reporting is so poor, but that there is an eager audience for it. I'm sure the reporters and publishers generally know exactly what they are doing, which is selling the "news".

329. SoSH U at work Posted: January 30, 2023 at 09:58 AM (#6115125)

It's just clickbait, no? To me the real issue isn't that the reporting is so poor, but that there is an eager audience for it. I'm sure the reporters and publishers generally know exactly what they are doing, which is selling the "news".

That's true of all bad journalism. But it doesn't make it any less defensible if it's the British press selling BS transfer claims or Tucker Carlson cynically stoking culture war fires. Just because there's an audience for nonsense doesn't justify the nonsense.

330. jmurph Posted: January 30, 2023 at 09:59 AM (#6115126)

I think there's some element of clickbait, sure, but this stuff existed pre-twitter, too, in the online versions of the various tabloids (and presumably the print versions for much longer?). Which is a type of clickbait, sure, but I'm just saying it's been around for a while.

331. spivey Posted: January 30, 2023 at 10:16 AM (#6115128)

There are very solid journalists, but the issue is they pretty much just have connections with 1-2 clubs, and in many cases are mouthpieces for the club. Ornstein is a good example. He's not going to just make #### up like a lot of "journalists" will. And they are rarely the ones that will break a story because usually someone has leaked something before the respectable journalist is going to report something is mostly done.

332. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 30, 2023 at 10:32 AM (#6115130)

It seems many people don't agree with this, and I'm sure it's not an either/or type of thing, but honestly I feel like professional sports are largely superfluous and I can't get at all worked up about clickbait in this setting. Carlson sure.

333. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: January 30, 2023 at 11:00 AM (#6115137)

The problem with the clickbait articles is they often are true to some degree. We see this in baseball all the time with ridiculous trade possibilities. The problem is some combination of the reporters not doing a reasonable due diligence on validity and readers not spending 12 seconds to think about stuff. If a reporter gets told by his source in the Tottenham front office that they are discussing benching Son fine, that's probably true in the sense that at some point someone brought it up, it doesn't make it imminent or likely but "SPURS TO BENCH SON" is a lot more useful headline than "SPURS DISCUSSING MANY OPTIONS TO GET TEAM ON TRACK." Nuance doesn't grab clicks.

334. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: January 30, 2023 at 11:02 AM (#6115138)

It seems many people don't agree with this, and I'm sure it's not an either/or type of thing, but honestly I feel like professional sports are largely superfluous and I can't get at all worked up about clickbait in this setting. Carlson sure.

I'd agree with that. Technically it's the same thing; journalists throwing #### out there to generate attention. But I'm a lot more bothered by someone doing it when it is related to the future of the planet and society than when it is related to the left back of a soccer team.

335. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 30, 2023 at 02:24 PM (#6115172)

Southampton vs Luton Town or Grimsby Town
Leicester City vs Blackburn Rovers or Birmingham City
Stoke City vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Wrexham or Sheffield United vs Tottenham
Fulham or Sunderland vs Leeds United
Bristol City vs Manchester City
Manchester United vs Derby or West Ham
Ipswich or Burnley vs Sheffield Wednesday or Fleetwood Town

The favorites avoid each other this round. And, we could have almost all EPL teams in the final 8. Probably will have 6 at any rate.

336. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: January 30, 2023 at 03:45 PM (#6115181)

It's so bad. My club, for obvious reasons, is reportedly on the verge of seemingly hundreds of signings each window. More bizarrely, the fact that virtually all of these are clear BS does not seem to stop many fans from believing this time it's true.

If you believe the reporting in the Gunnersphere, Declan Rice is practically already in Arsenal's backfield. They talk about it like it's fait accompli without ever saying why. I mean, he would be a great addition; they desperately need someone who can spell Thomas Partey but also play in the backfield. But why does that automatically mean he's on the train down from Birmingham?

337. jmurph Posted: January 31, 2023 at 09:43 AM (#6115255)

Jorginho to Arsenal is done as is Cancelo to Bayern.

The Jorginho deal seems like an American sports move you don't see quite as much in soccer- bring in a vet for depth on a short(ish) term deal. I think I like it for Arsenal.

338. Mefisto Posted: January 31, 2023 at 11:36 AM (#6115270)

Now I have even more reason to root for Leeds.

339. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 31, 2023 at 02:11 PM (#6115288)

So Spurs seem to have officially brought in Pedro Porro...and then they immediately loan out Doherty and Spence. Not that Spence was playing at all anyway.

340. SoSH U at work Posted: January 31, 2023 at 05:42 PM (#6115332)

Newcastle onto the final. Bruno G will be available, but he'll miss the next three PL games with a straight red card.

341. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 31, 2023 at 05:55 PM (#6115336)

Ironically, I guess that means he will be well-rested for his first game back, the EFL Cup final.

edit: watching the replay it's a fair red. I would say harsh luck as Guimares appears to be trying to play the ball, but there's no need to play on the edge when you are up 2 goals with 10 minutes left. At that point you don't need to take chances.

342. SoSH U at work Posted: January 31, 2023 at 06:03 PM (#6115338)

edit: watching the replay it's a fair red. I would say harsh luck as Guimares appears to be trying to play the ball, but there's no need to play on the edge when you are up 2 goals with 10 minutes left. At that point you don't need to take chances.

I couldn't watch the game and the replays I saw were lacking, but that seems to be the consensus from the Newcastle fans. Tough break, but the right call.

343. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 31, 2023 at 06:17 PM (#6115343)

Apparently Doherty is not a loan, Spurs just terminated his contract and he's signing for Atletico for 6 months. Very weird.

344. spivey Posted: January 31, 2023 at 09:16 PM (#6115348)

Spurs had to terminate him, apparently, because they had 8 international loans. That's actually one of the only things that will stop the EPL from running away from Europe in terms of quality, is that when they keep signing guys who then they need to move on, there's limits on where they can go. Almost all these guys will be back, as well, and they have to do it again.

345. Textbook Editor Posted: January 31, 2023 at 09:17 PM (#6115349)

Apparently Doherty is not a loan, Spurs just terminated his contract and he's signing for Atletico for 6 months. Very weird.

I'm not really sure WTF Doherty did to Conte, but it had to have been something. I really don't get it. I mean--yes, defensively he's limited, but when Spurs were on a run last Spring, he was clicking on all cylinders and actually Spurs struggled a bit after he went down with the season-ending injury.

I know having 3 right backs/wing backs might be 1 too many, but just watch--one of Porro or Royal will go down with an injury against City.

346. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: February 01, 2023 at 10:53 AM (#6115385)

he went down with the season-ending injury.

That might be your answer, it's possible he's just not quite the same player anymore.
Oh and Conte's no good awful season continues ... he had emergency gall bladder surgery last night and is out for an undetermined number of matches.

347. spivey Posted: February 01, 2023 at 11:14 AM (#6115388)

Yes, Matt Cash and Villa's dirty ass team hurt Doherty. #### Steven Gerrard, that slipping charlatan of a manager.

I still feel like Doherty is better than Emerson, but Emerson has more long-term value, and at least offers something different in being defense-first.

348. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 01, 2023 at 03:34 PM (#6115418)

United went into the home game against Forest today up 3-0 in aggregate. So why start a strong team? They have a much more important game against Palace in 3 days. Looks likely to be an extremely dull watch. You have to be a diehard fan to turn this one on.

349. Mefisto Posted: February 01, 2023 at 05:41 PM (#6115432)

I was really hoping United would start reserves. They have an extremely congested schedule going forward and the starters need rest. Ten Haag did use all 5 subs so it's not like the regulars played the whole game.

350. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2023 at 01:55 PM (#6115510)

Posted in the wrong thread, but United is 56/44 over Newcastle for the EFL final.

Bale has moved on to greener pastures. His handicap of 2 at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am is extremely impressive. Doesn't top the amateurs though, at least not while Carlton from Fresh Prince of Bel Air is about.

351. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: February 02, 2023 at 03:27 PM (#6115522)

A Football Manager streamer I watch on Twitch started a rumour that James Ward-Prowse was going to ManU at the deadline, and watched the odds of that move on SkyBet drop from around 25/1 to 3/1 over the next hour. Some football clickbait site then put up an article about the rumour, citing the streamer as the source, while also noting that it was therefore probably false.

I didn't have the heart to tell the streamer in his chat that these articles are all auto-generated and that he hadn't gotten any actual human being to write about him, but I was impressed how quickly the SkyBet odds moved.

352. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 02, 2023 at 03:41 PM (#6115527)

That seems like a VERY inefficient market. I'm assuming there is no way to take the other side of all rumours...

353. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: February 02, 2023 at 04:38 PM (#6115531)

One assumes a very large percentage of bets are placed drunk at 1.30am after a protracted argument with mates at the pub.

354. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: February 02, 2023 at 06:56 PM (#6115535)

It's funny, so much of so many people's enjoyment of sports is mediated through gambling. I've never bet on a sporting match and I don't think I ever will. I guess when I played Scoresheet, that was a form of gambling, but it didn't really feel like it. It makes me feel very distant from the world of sports fandom sometimes.

355. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 02, 2023 at 10:09 PM (#6115543)

I’ve got a good friend who is a Leicester fan. I’m going to visit him in March on my way down to spring training and I proposed a bet at the start of the season that the team who is lower in the table when I get there on March 3rd pays for drinks and dinner the first night. My Everton team is 3 points back (and six goals behind) with four games left;

Everton: Arsenal, @Liverpool, Leeds, Villa

Leicester: @Villa, Spurs, @ManU, Arsenal

We agree this is a big weekend for the bet. I can’t afford Leicester to beat Villa and even a point hurts. I’m not sure Everton can get four points between now and the 3rd. I’m officially saving money because he’s getting liquored up on my credit card that night I think.

356. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 03, 2023 at 04:04 PM (#6115628)

I'm sure people saw this Ziyech transfer ###### by Chelsea. I heard there was some kind of appeal, but now that Chelsea is playing Ziyech today I guess they gave up on that?

357. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 04, 2023 at 08:05 AM (#6115664)

The first 30 minutes of this Everton/Arsenal game has been very fast paced with few fouls. Fun to watch despite not many high xG scoring chances. Everton has given as good as they've gotten from Arsenal to this point.

edit: and now Everton just miss on two big chacnes. The Calvert-Lewin one was given an xG of .62 on infogol--way too high since he was at full stretch and only got the slightest of touches, but it was still a big chance.

358. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 04, 2023 at 08:20 AM (#6115665)

Quite the half by Everton. By xG anyway that was one of the two worst halves of Arsenal's season, matched only by the second half at United.

359. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 04, 2023 at 09:00 AM (#6115666)

The broadcast just flashed the win probability (65th minute) at 70% Everton. Seemed way too high, and betting odds had it at a more believable 60%. Arsenal to win was flashed at 6%, while betting odds it around 10%.

I'm not sure what algorithm they are using but it is not similar to what betting odds are doing.

360. spivey Posted: February 04, 2023 at 09:14 AM (#6115667)

Dyche making Europe with a Burnley team that very little talent is as impressive as anything most managers have on their CV. I'm very interested to see how he does at Everton.

They've played really tough, aggressive football today.

361. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 04, 2023 at 09:35 AM (#6115668)

What a game by Everton. Deserved to win too. They were quick, energetic, and decisive for all 90 minutes.

Based on expectation certainly Arsenal's most underwhelming performance of the season.

By understat, Arsenal had most overperformed their xG this year of any team, with only Fulham anywhere near them. I would say they wouldn't be able to complain too much about some bounces going the other way. This wasn't really an example of bad bounces though. They were mostly just beaten.

Massive shakeup at the top and bottom of the table. I'm rooting hard for Arsenal to take the title, but they are (at the moment) second favorites again to City. Everton did themselves a lot of favors but they are not out of the doghouse yet as they are still considered one of the three most likely teams to get relegated, but stand-alone its under 50% now.

362. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: February 04, 2023 at 09:55 AM (#6115669)

I'm not sure what algorithm they are using but it is not similar to what betting odds are doing.

It's probably just a basic model that only includes score and time remaining, and makes no adjustments for team quality.

363. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 04, 2023 at 10:18 AM (#6115670)

Liverpool lol...

364. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 04, 2023 at 10:31 AM (#6115672)

It's probably just a basic model that only includes score and time remaining, and makes no adjustments for team quality.

Can't be just that. They just flashed United is being given 77% to win in the 27th minute. They are also (like Everton was) a home team up 1-0. So there must be some adjustment for team quality.

(Actual betting odds have United at over 85% right now (very different), so whatever they are doing does not seem to be based on betting odds.)

365. spivey Posted: February 04, 2023 at 10:36 AM (#6115673)

Can't be just that. They just flashed United is being given 77% to win in the 27th minute. They are also (like Everton was) a home team up 1-0. So there must be some adjustment for team quality.

It's really hard to model, tbf. You probably need to weight the favorites as even more favorites because they're going to be all out attacking and the worse team is going to be all out defending, most likely. Which adds variance, but increases the likelihood of a draw, I expect. Then maybe you need to think about if you're considering how the teams are actually playing in this game (this probably should be accounted for in a perfect scenario, but how you do it is really challenging given the small sample size). That's why... you always trust the betting odds. People that have millions or billions of dollars worth of incentives on getting this right, generally will.

366. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 04, 2023 at 10:38 AM (#6115674)

The broadcast just flashed the win probability (65th minute) at 70% Everton.

Those probabilities pop up in baseball all the time too. Both in season long situations and single game situations. They are generally less than useless IMHO.

I'm not sure if Wolves have been great or Liverpool terrible. Probably somewhere n between but if I didn't know anything about soccer (not a word from the peanut gallery!) and you told me one of these teams was 20 minutes from the league title last year and one of them was in the relegation zone I wouldn't assign the two teams the correct designation.

367. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 04, 2023 at 11:21 AM (#6115675)

Brighton's Undav failed to convert 3 big chances in the span of 10 seconds. Infogol has them at .55, .46, and .52.

Taking the highest (.55) or adding them all up (1.53) are both going to give misleading results. Using the 1-(1-i)^n yields about .89 xG.

368. Mefisto Posted: February 04, 2023 at 12:04 PM (#6115677)

I just have to say that Antony is an idiot and Casemiro lost his mind.

369. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 04, 2023 at 12:10 PM (#6115678)

I switched away from the game right after the second goal, so missed all the excitement.

370. SoSH U at work Posted: February 04, 2023 at 12:35 PM (#6115679)

Damn, VAR ruled out a Joe Willock goal 35 seconds into the game, only to see the resulting goal kick end up with Wilson scoring in the third minute.

371. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 04, 2023 at 12:44 PM (#6115681)

West Ham might end the day in the bottom three at this rate.

372. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 04, 2023 at 01:41 PM (#6115687)

Undav's three failed attempts were actually only over about 4 seconds total.

373. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 04, 2023 at 02:01 PM (#6115692)

Burnley is now being given over 98% chance to be promoted. Sheffield United is also still very likely at over 80%. Then it's anybody's guess, though maybe it's finally Middlesbrough's year as they look pretty good under Carrick.

374. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 04, 2023 at 02:26 PM (#6115697)

West Ham played Newcastle tough today. They are nowhere near bad enough to be in the relegation battle--it's all the draws that have put them there.

I guess I would say West Ham is a top half team this year, and betting odds treats them as such. There seems to be a big dropoff this year after the top 6 plus Newcastle and Brighton.

375. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 04, 2023 at 04:32 PM (#6115721)

It was a nice 45 minutes or so where I thought maybe Everton would spare me from spending all my money on drinks and wings when I get to Atlanta next month.

376. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 04, 2023 at 05:46 PM (#6115746)

It's Newcastle that has had all the draws, not West Ham.

Despite this, West Ham has been very unlucky with results this season while Newcastle is pretty much breaking even. In Newcastle's case, you might have expected another win or two to replace some draws, but balanced out by 3 or 4 more losses also replacing draws. In West Ham's case, you might have expected 4 or so of their losses to be draws, and 4 or so of their draws to be wins. West Ham mostly has had a tough time actually scoring their xG chances, and the underperformance has generally been coming at very costly times.

If Newcastle keeps drawing at this rate, which is highly doubtful, they would set the 38 game EPL record for draws, currently at 17. They've also only lost two games in all competitions all year. Once away to Liverpool in August and again at Sheffield United in the FA cup. Haven't lost at home this year. After Bournemouth next week they have three hard games: Liverpool, United, and City. One each home, neutral, and away. By odds they should lose (before pens) a little more than one of those.

377. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 04, 2023 at 06:04 PM (#6115757)

It's probably too much to hope for that Leicester loses all of its next three games. Realistically I think that means Everton will have to win both the home games against Villa and Leeds. You never know though.

378. SoSH U at work Posted: February 04, 2023 at 06:28 PM (#6115769)

Once away to Liverpool in August and again at Sheffield United in the FA cup.

And Liverpool needed the eighth minute of five minutes of stoppage time to do it. Sheffield Wednesday, however, needed no such bonus time.

379. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 04, 2023 at 06:44 PM (#6115770)

I was just looking at the Premier League table...I recognize this is probably mainly due to individual talent, but I'm surprised Tottenham are third in goals scored despite how dire they usually look attacking.

I am not surprised that the goals conceded are mid-table.

380. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 05, 2023 at 10:03 AM (#6115790)

Navas is already earning his keep at Forest.

381. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 05, 2023 at 10:47 AM (#6115791)

Liverpool, Arsenal, and Real Madrid, three teams currently rated in the top 8 in the world, and maybe better than that, all had losses to far inferior teams this weekend. (The other 5: City, Bayern, Barcelona, PSG, and Napoli).

382. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 05, 2023 at 10:57 AM (#6115794)

Huge win by Forest, despite being second best most of the day.

Leeds is definitely in a relegation battle now. Unlike West Ham, they are not quite good enough to survive a lot of bad results. They will probably need to get results that are no worse than their underlying performance the rest of the year to survive. Back-to-back games against Manchester United coming this week.

383. SoSH U at work Posted: February 05, 2023 at 11:10 AM (#6115796)

Liverpool, Arsenal, and Real Madrid, three teams currently rated in the top 8 in the world, and maybe better than that, all had losses to far inferior teams this weekend. (The other 5: City, Bayern, Barcelona, PSG, and Napoli).

I'm confident Liverpool is not better than that.

384. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 05, 2023 at 11:28 AM (#6115799)

Liverpool is exactly 50/50 to advance over RealMadrid in the CLs. Their odds of winning the CL is slightly higher than RealMadrid too (maybe due the current bad form being considered more a little more temporary than that of RealMadrid).

Despite the tough matchup that both of these teams have against each other, they are both considered more likely to win the CL than Napoli. All of that puts Liverpool as "considered to be" in the top 6 of the world, though certainly it is debatable. (Arguably higher depending on how you view Arsenal and even Barcelona as well.)

385. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 05, 2023 at 11:33 AM (#6115800)

Relegation odds


bournemouth    81
southampton    70

everton        44

leeds          29
forest         22
wolves         19

leicester      14
west ham       12
palace          7

villa           1.25

field           0.75

386. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 05, 2023 at 11:38 AM (#6115801)

Leeds' problem is that while they have not really played bad enough to be relegated, of the 6 or 7 teams that have played and are bad enough, three are now well ahead of them in the table. And a fourth is Everton who there is good reason to think might not be as bad as they have played, especially now with a new coach. It's not a good spot for Leeds to be in.

387. spivey Posted: February 05, 2023 at 12:26 PM (#6115802)

I think it would be unwise to consider Liverpool better than Arsenal. I know form is temporary and class is permanent, but a lot of these Arsenal players I think are on the way to world class, and Liverpool’s world class players have not been (besides Salah) for long enough to where it is fair to ask if it’s gone.

And I say this as someone who thinks Arsenal is over performing by a good bit.

Liverpool has had a ton of bad games in a row now it feels.

388. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: February 05, 2023 at 12:29 PM (#6115804)

So you are saying class is temporary?

389. spivey Posted: February 05, 2023 at 12:48 PM (#6115806)

Ha, I don’t think VVD has been the same since Pickford destroyed him, so I suppose so. Absolutely no idea what happened to Fabinho. But I think I’m ready to not consider him world class anymore.

390. spivey Posted: February 05, 2023 at 12:57 PM (#6115808)

Tottenham playing quite well.

391. spivey Posted: February 05, 2023 at 12:58 PM (#6115810)

When Tottenham has their best 10 plus a RB out there, they are pretty good. Porro could be amazing.

392. spivey Posted: February 05, 2023 at 01:15 PM (#6115811)

Romero is a “well if he doesn’t get sent off he’ll have had a good game” player

393. spivey Posted: February 05, 2023 at 01:21 PM (#6115814)

Pep has City in prime Barca form for whining to the ref.

394. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 05, 2023 at 01:39 PM (#6115815)

Yeah, I know every team does it but City was particularly egregious today with surrounding the ref and complaining.

395. Mefisto Posted: February 05, 2023 at 02:55 PM (#6115818)

@386: Yeah, and today's loss -- a game they deserved to win -- was especially harmful.

396. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 05, 2023 at 03:08 PM (#6115820)

EPL winner

arsenal    55
city       40

united      4
newcastle   0.8
field       0.2

397. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 05, 2023 at 03:19 PM (#6115826)

Top 4

arsenal      98
city         97.5

united       81

newcastle    51
tottenham    39

liverpool    12
brighton     12
chelsea       7.5

field         2

398. jmurph Posted: February 06, 2023 at 09:52 AM (#6115894)

So will Pep stick around to manage City in the Championship next year? I don't like the idea of him balancing playing time over the additional 8 league games.

399. jmurph Posted: February 06, 2023 at 10:26 AM (#6115896)

Marsch is out at Leeds. Everytime I see them I think they look decent but the results are what they are, I guess.

400. Mefisto Posted: February 06, 2023 at 11:15 AM (#6115901)

By xPts, Leeds should be mid-table (11th). I don't see how that's Marsch's fault.

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