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OT Soccer Thread - Hi Ho Hi Ho it’s Back to Club Football We Go

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Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 22, 2022 at 09:54 PM | 546 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off topic, soccer

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401. jmurph Posted: February 06, 2023 at 11:18 AM (#6115902)

By xPts, Leeds should be mid-table (11th). I don't see how that's Marsch's fault.

Yeah it seems like the next guy is gonna look really good.

402. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 06, 2023 at 11:59 AM (#6115909)

The next guy likely will look really good. Leeds' position is a bit precarious though so a little more bad luck and the next guy could look even worse than Marsch.

403. The Marksist Posted: February 06, 2023 at 12:37 PM (#6115913)

Ha, I don’t think VVD has been the same since Pickford destroyed him, so I suppose so. Absolutely no idea what happened to Fabinho. But I think I’m ready to not consider him world class anymore.

Liverpool is just not very good right now. They still have good players, but the press isn't working and Fabinho has lost enough of his athleticism that he can't cover for the problems. Plus Joe Gomez isn't what he was before the injuries, Matip is getting old, and everyone is injured. There's not way I'd consider them top 8 in the world or whatever until something changes. They are definitely worse than Arsenal currently.

404. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 06, 2023 at 03:23 PM (#6115948)

I'm already hearing that idiotic "control their own destiny" with almost half the season remaining. Listen, no team is going on a 17-game winning streak.

On top of that, this was in reference to City who are behind Arsenal by 5 points with two games to play against them. But it's not even correct, because Arsenal have a game in hand. So, stupid and also wrong--the double whammy.

City does play Arsenal twice though, and even just draws in those games would be huge for Arsenal. The first is in 9 days in London.

405. SoSH U at work Posted: February 06, 2023 at 03:32 PM (#6115950)

I'm already hearing that idiotic "control their own destiny" with almost half the season remaining.

Or it's partner in absurdity, discussion of "the loss column" at any point before the last weekend of the season.

406. Mefisto Posted: February 06, 2023 at 03:43 PM (#6115953)

Looking at LFC and Chelsea this year, it's remarkable how quickly even the best teams can decline. I'm sure both will be back soon, but the decline seems to come out of nowhere.

407. jmurph Posted: February 06, 2023 at 04:13 PM (#6115959)

Listen, no team is going on a 17-game winning streak.

Obviously this is correct but I'm looking up the ridiculous end to the 18-19 season when Manchester City and Liverpool were so good. If I'm counting correctly City closed on a 14 game league winning streak, and Liverpool went 17 unbeaten in the league but had a few draws. Not bad.

408. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 06, 2023 at 04:32 PM (#6115967)

Deliberatively selective starting point...Tottenham went 19-2-2 to close out the season in 16-17 but Chelsea was too far ahead beforehand. That season bugs me way more than the Leicester season because I think Spurs were legitimately the best team in the league that year, they just got off to the usual slow start under Pochettino and Chelsea wasn't in Europe, so they could focus entirely on the league. To pick another selective starting point, after Spurs were out of Europe they won 12 of the last 13.

409. SoSH U at work Posted: February 06, 2023 at 05:02 PM (#6115973)

Liverpool went 17 unbeaten in the league but had a few draws.

Newcastle is on a 17-game unbeaten run right now, but with a #### ton of draws.

410. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 06, 2023 at 05:18 PM (#6115976)

In 2018-2019 City finished the season with 14 straight wins, which is the highest streak ever (Prem) to finish a season. Liverpool finished with 9 straight that year. City won by a single point. That was probably a once in a lifetime thing for two teams to finish like that. City had 32 wins on the year (tied record), and Liverpool had 30. Arsenal finished with 13 straight in 2001-2002, when they only won 26 total. United won 11 straight to finish the season in 1999-2000 in a season when they had 28 wins.

edit: All four of those streaks to end the season were part of the top 8 longest streaks ever in the EPL (going down to just 12 in a row). So, the three longest ever to finish a season almost certainly had to have been City (14), Arsenal (13), and United (11).

411. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 06, 2023 at 05:36 PM (#6115977)

Before the EPL the longest win streaks in the English top flight league were apparently only 14 games. None of those were at, or even straddled, the end of a season though, so it looks like City is the record.

412. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 07, 2023 at 08:39 AM (#6116014)

The Casemiro suspension (3 games) is probably excessive since he appears to have been scruffing the opponent by grabbing the collar of his shirt rather than actually going for his neck. Still, way uncalled for.

We'll see how it actually shakes out, but in some ways it;s not the worst time to have a 3-game league suspension. He'll miss Leeds x2 and a home game against Leicester, but that will leave him more rested for the three (arguably) more important games: Barcelona x2 and the EFL final against Newcastle.

Even if you think Europa is not worth caring about, two of the very most popular teams in the world going at it has to be an exception. And while they are both slightly off their heights, Barcelona is clearly a top 5 or 6 team right now and Manchester United can't be much worse than 10th-12th.

413. Mefisto Posted: February 07, 2023 at 08:57 AM (#6116016)

It's not likely to end well for United. McTominay and Eriksen are both injured, which leaves, I guess, Sabitzer and Fred (or maybe Lindelof) as available replacements.

414. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 07, 2023 at 12:33 PM (#6116035)

We are certainly never likely to know how things would have played out with Casemiro. Going into these 3 games I doubt he could be considered worth much more than a quarter point total. Expected points (now) based on betting odds: very close to 6. (538 likes Leeds and dislikes United, so they have it at 5.75, but also don't know about injuries, so maybe around 5.5 if you take that into account)

415. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 07, 2023 at 12:51 PM (#6116036)

Both United and Tottenham have already played Arsenal and City twice each. That's a bonus to those 4 teams who have easier schedules going forward. Arsenal still have yet to play City though.

Relevant because Newcastle (and Liverpool/Brighton/Chelsea) all have tougher schedules remaining for the Top 4 chase. Brighton has played Liverpool twice at least.

416. SoSH U at work Posted: February 07, 2023 at 01:02 PM (#6116038)

Relevant because Newcastle (and Liverpool/Brighton/Chelsea) all have tougher schedules remaining for the Top 4 chase. Brighton has played Liverpool twice at least.

The one thing Newcastle has going for it in this regard (other than not having European football to play) is the home/away split. They've got Arsenal, Man U, Tottenham, Liverpool and Brighton all at St. James'.

417. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 07, 2023 at 04:53 PM (#6116057)

With Sheffield United beating Wrexham and Burnley beating Ipswich, there was only one team from a lower division that has beaten its opponent in the FA Cup 4th round: League 2 Grimsby. They go to Southampton as the only team from League 2. Fleetwood Town is the only team from League 1.

Fulham still has to face Sunderland tomorrow.

418. Mefisto Posted: February 07, 2023 at 06:25 PM (#6116063)

Reports say that Qataris will bid for United. This is insane and I think it'll destroy the sport.

419. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 08, 2023 at 04:40 PM (#6116124)

Leeds has played well overall today. Except for the first quarter hour though this game has been pretty much as expected, with United creating almost all the dangerous chances. With so little time left now anything can happen.

420. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2023 at 07:46 AM (#6116478)

I'm still adjusting to the fact that it's possible to pull for Chelsea again. Just about sinking in.

421. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2023 at 08:03 AM (#6116479)

Second straight game it took West Ham 20 minutes plus going down to actually show up.

422. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2023 at 08:05 AM (#6116480)

No shots for West Ham for 24 minutes, then 6 from inside the box in the next 6 minutes.

423. jmurph Posted: February 11, 2023 at 09:34 AM (#6116482)

I like seeing Chelsea continue to be bad but holy god how was that penalty not given?

424. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 11, 2023 at 10:00 AM (#6116483)

Yeah, if that's not a penalty the rule needs to be rewritten. I think this highlights the VAR issue. The VAR ref knows if he sends the on field referee to the monitor that the ref is almost certainly going to overturn it. But the fact is he SHOULD have gone to look at it even if he didn't overturn it. That play warranted a second look. Either they need to make it clear that being called to look doesn't mean "you blew it" but "it's close, have a look" or they need to make the VAR ref the arbiter like baseball does.

425. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2023 at 10:10 AM (#6116484)

They just posted the supposed live odds 5 minutes into the scoreless Arsenal/Brentford game. Arsenal was being given just 49% to win. That's way, way different from the betting odds, which is more like 65%.

426. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2023 at 10:12 AM (#6116485)

Yeah this second look = change the call thing has to go. Either make the call from the VAR box directly or make the second look a real thing. VAR is probably a bad idea anyway, but no reason it has to be implemented this poorly.

427. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2023 at 10:14 AM (#6116486)

Arsenal has caught a couple breaks already, one on a terrible call. Should probably be 0-2. They are being outplayed to this point.

428. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 11, 2023 at 10:17 AM (#6116487)

VAR is probably a bad idea anyway, but no reason it has to be implemented this poorly.

Replay is a mess in virtually every sport. I think the NHL probably does it best but even that has flaws.

429. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2023 at 10:29 AM (#6116489)

Another huge chance for Toney. Brentford has only had two shots but both very easily could have been goals. The actual ball Brentford put in the back of the net was called off for what probably should not have been a foul.

430. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 11, 2023 at 10:33 AM (#6116490)

As someone who is delighting in Chelsea's failures this season, I have no earthly idea how that's not given as a penalty.

431. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 11, 2023 at 10:40 AM (#6116493)

I wouldn't say Leicester-Spurs has been well played but it has been very entertaining.

432. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 11, 2023 at 10:42 AM (#6116494)

Yeah, the passing is sloppy as hell for both teams, which has made it very chaotic.

433. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 11, 2023 at 10:49 AM (#6116495)

Cripes, I insult Lloris all the time for his howlers, but Forster is just awful. There's just no way you should be letting in that shot.

434. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2023 at 11:00 AM (#6116496)

Lemina of Wolves got a second yellow early in the second half of a critical relegation battle against Southampton. For dissent!

435. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: February 11, 2023 at 11:10 AM (#6116497)

Cripes, I insult Lloris all the time for his howlers, but Forster is just awful. There's just no way you should be letting in that shot.

His reaction times should be measured with an hourglass and watching him try to get down on shots is like watching a dead tree toppling over in a forest in slow motion.

436. SoSH U at work Posted: February 11, 2023 at 11:14 AM (#6116498)

Lemina of Wolves got a second yellow early in the second half of a critical relegation battle against Southampton. For dissent!

Wasn't it midway through the first half?

437. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2023 at 11:17 AM (#6116499)

Yes! Very early in the game though (which is what I must have been thinking).

438. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2023 at 12:14 PM (#6116501)

Wolves won anyway... By all rights that should be the death knell for Southampton. Can't lose games like that at home gifted to you.

Arsenal is looking shaky all of a sudden. If they are still favorites for the title, it must be by a very slim margin (assuming no City points deduction).

439. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2023 at 02:15 PM (#6116514)

In the Leipzig/Union game they just called a misplay by a defender trying something akin to a scorpion kick clearance a deflection. The ball went to a player who was in an offside position when the ball was originally played, so the ensuing equalizing goal was ruled out. Much consternation from the announcers. Huge game there with Union still leading late 1-2.

440. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: February 11, 2023 at 03:20 PM (#6116524)

The way the Gunners have played the last couple of weeks, I'm starting to feel okay about the fact that the first City match is happening while I'm in class.

441. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2023 at 09:12 PM (#6116571)

Apparently VAR blew two of the calls it is actually normally good at. Straight offside calls. The penultimate pass in the Brentford goal against Arsenal was received by a Norgaard who was in an offside position. There were multiple segments of that play and supposedly the lines never got drawn for that particular pass. Then, supposedly a Brighton goal was ruled out where the lines were drawn incorrectly.

A disaster! Arsenal did escape a likely goal on a phantom foul and didn't deserve to win by any stretch, if that's any comfort. Brighton on the other hand completely blasted Palace and should have won on almost any other day.

442. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:37 AM (#6116591)

Leeds/ManU first half is about as sloppy as you will see in the Premier League these days.

443. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: February 12, 2023 at 09:40 AM (#6116592)

444. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:08 AM (#6116593)

Announcers again stating that "Leeds would be happy to take a point" in this one, going into the second half of a level game, where Leeds looked no worse than United in the first half.

Considering their position in the table, their expectation of about a point coming in, and the fact that it is still level and Leeds are not being outplayed, I don't see why they would not go for the win at least until United show that they are taking charge of the game, if that ever happens. A draw is not that good of a result for Leeds today, and leaves them in the thick of the relegation mess.

445. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:59 AM (#6116595)

United were probably outplayed for 75 minutes, but once Rashford scored Leeds fell apart. Could have been worse but for some close offside calls. 4 points in two games against Leeds is a par for United, and they played well enough to earn about 4 points. Par for Leeds would have been about 1.5 points, and across two games they probably played well enough for that. They only got 1 point though, so their season of accumulating fewer points than one would expect based on underlying performance has so far continued after Marsch.

edit: apparently xG had Leeds as doing even better than I thought, so you might adjust those to 3.5 expected for United based on performance and 2.0 for Leeds.
edit2: or even 3.25 -- 2.25, depending whose stats you believe.

446. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 12, 2023 at 01:45 PM (#6116616)

EPL winner

city       49
arsenal    45

united      5.4
newcastle   0.4
field       0.2

The Wednesday Arsenal/City game is massive. City is a slight favorite despite the game being in London. A draw by Arsenal doesn't look quite as sweet for them as it did a week ago, but it still would likely put Arsenal back as favorites for winning the title.

447. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 12, 2023 at 08:53 PM (#6116718)

Brentford has been very good all year. Brighton has been excellent--arguably better than anybody but City and Arsenal. The betting odds doesn't believe in either of them much yet. Both are now in the top 21 of ELO. 538 loves Brighton, and has them as 14th in the world. Brentford 31st.

Right now by clubelo the EPL has 10 teams in the top 25. The traditional six naturally, and Newcastle now, But also Brighton and Brentford, with even Leicester holding on to 25th. That's partly because the EPL has done well in Europe, but it's also because Brighton and Brentford are also doing very well in the EPL.

Big European matchups this week, so we might see some shakeup.

448. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 12, 2023 at 10:30 PM (#6116778)

PGMOL admitted they blew the VAR offside calls in the Brighton and Arsenal games. Very poor job by the VAR officials in both games.

The judgment calls I am pretty forgiving because you can poll 1000 people and it seems in all cases at least 20% have an opposing view. For these purely mechanical calls wtf VAR.

449. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 13, 2023 at 07:24 AM (#6116802)

Hell of a week in injuries for Spurs: Lloris, out for up to 6 weeks, Bissouma, foot surgery, Sessegnon, hamstring, out for up to 6 weeks and finally Bentancur, reportedly done for the season and perhaps up to 6 months with a knee injury.

Funny how going into the City game Spurs actually had a completely healthy team, and a week later their season seems pretty much over due to injuries. I don't see a world where Spurs make Top 4 or go far in the Champions League without Bentancur. Maybe they can fluke the FA Cup.

450. Mefisto Posted: February 13, 2023 at 08:26 AM (#6116809)

Newcastle really benefit from not having to play so damn many games.

451. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2023 at 08:29 AM (#6116810)

A week of really bad calls in the EPL. In addition to the two blown offside calls, there was the intentional handball by Soucek against Chelsea that was let go.

Just a reminder that these terrible calls happen to every team.

452. jmurph Posted: February 13, 2023 at 09:01 AM (#6116816)

Like most people, I suspect, I have a complicated relationship with VAR because it does get so many important calls right. But when we still get these massive mistakes in the era of ubiquitous replay, it's even more frustrating than it was pre-VAR.

453. SoSH U at work Posted: February 13, 2023 at 09:09 AM (#6116818)

Just a reminder that these terrible calls happen to every team.

And as was the case of Arsenal/Brentford this weekend, sometimes in the same game.

454. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2023 at 09:15 AM (#6116819)

Right! That other call in Arsenal's favor was also terrible. Can't blame that one directly on VAR though as the whistle blew before the ball was put in the net, so it was unreviewable. You can blame it on the on-field ref blowing the whistle too early in the age of VAR though.

455. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 13, 2023 at 09:17 AM (#6116820)

I've been going through past World Cups on the FIFA web site - the amount of decisions that were obviously wrong turns me in favor of VAR. Yeah, it takes too long sometimes, and sometimes still gets important decisions wrong, but at least the obvious mistakes generally get fixed.

456. jmurph Posted: February 13, 2023 at 10:10 AM (#6116830)

I've been going through past World Cups on the FIFA web site - the amount of decisions that were obviously wrong turns me in favor of VAR. Yeah, it takes too long sometimes, and sometimes still gets important decisions wrong, but at least the obvious mistakes generally get fixed.

I just introduced my kids to the Maradona Hand of God goal, so I'm inclined to agree!

457. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2023 at 06:12 PM (#6116981)

Top 4 odds

city         97.5
arsenal      97.5

united       85

newcastle    48

tottenham    29.5
liverpool    22.5

brighton     11.5
chelsea       6

field         2.5

458. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2023 at 06:16 PM (#6116984)

Relegation odds

southampton    77.5
bournemouth    77

everton        45

leeds          30.25
forest         28

west ham       12.5
wolves         11.5
leicester       8.5
palace          8.5

villa           1

field           0.25

459. Mefisto Posted: February 13, 2023 at 06:17 PM (#6116986)

I'm curious: are bettors simply ignoring the chance that City will get hit with penalties? Or do they just consider the risk to be very small?

460. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: February 13, 2023 at 06:47 PM (#6116988)

Or do they just consider the risk to be very small?

I mean, it must be the latter. They don't have any incentive to do the former.

461. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2023 at 08:08 PM (#6117002)

Yeah if there is any discount at all it must be very small. I can't think that these lines are contingent on City not getting a points deduction this year.

Maybe it's also that even if there is a points deduction, in all likelihood it will hit in a future year?

462. Mefisto Posted: February 13, 2023 at 08:24 PM (#6117007)

I personally think that City will get away with a slap on the wrist, but I'm not risking any money to hold that (cynical) opinion. If I were a gambler, I'd want some sort of hedge.

463. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2023 at 08:57 PM (#6117017)

From the little bit I have read on this, the earliest timeline for a verdict/penalty is on then order of "months". I think it's highly unlikely they'll get a points deduction this year. Even if the case is near final they probably wouldn't deduct points with just weeks left in the season.

464. Mefisto Posted: February 13, 2023 at 09:57 PM (#6117023)

I wonder what happens if they retroactively take the title away from City. Not sure if that's possible, or if penalties can only look forward.

465. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2023 at 10:53 PM (#6117032)

Newcastle is slightly favored at home against Liverpool this weekend. It's not quite a must win for Liverpool, but it's very much a must not lose. A win and Liverpool would be almost right back in the thick of it. They would be 6 points back of Newcastle with a game in hand and a slightly easier schedule.

edit: Liverpool had two very nice goals on the break today. Worth a watch.

466. jmurph Posted: February 14, 2023 at 09:08 AM (#6117066)

Jesse Marsch is apparently going to take over at Southampton.

467. Mefisto Posted: February 14, 2023 at 09:19 AM (#6117068)

Good for him. I wonder if he can get some more Americans into the EPL. :)

468. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 14, 2023 at 10:45 AM (#6117076)

This is horrible.

Belgian goalkeeper Arne Espeel died after he collapsed on the pitch on Saturday moments after saving a penalty for his team....

According to reports in Belgian media, Espeel saved the spot kick but dropped to the ground afterward. Emergency services rushed to help Espeel and tried to revive him with a defibrillator, but he was pronounced dead shortly after he was taken to a hospital.

469. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2023 at 04:16 PM (#6117117)

PSG without Mbappe is no match for this Bayern team. Maybe no match for most of the teams in the CL KOs. They look bad.

Now that they are down maybe we will see them do something.

470. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2023 at 04:46 PM (#6117120)

With Mbappe on PSG had two huge chances, one leading to a marginally offside goal. The other actually also looked marginally offside on the Mbappe run, but since it did not result in a goal the Mbappe run was never checked. (Mbappe was way offside when he actually put the ball in the net, but that didn't mean much.) Now a third chance, but a great block.

Overall PSG looked terrible until Mbappe came in but now really deserve a draw at least.

edit: it's days like this when it's clear Messi is no longer the best player in the world anymore.

471. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2023 at 04:54 PM (#6117121)

Pavard with a highly deserved second yellow. Announcers wondering whether he got the slightest touch on the ball, but it's totally irrelevant. That was a yellow card tackle regardless of whether he nicked the ball or not.

472. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: February 14, 2023 at 05:34 PM (#6117135)

Probably be best for everyone if Conte just resigned "over family time" and "for health reasons".

473. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 14, 2023 at 06:26 PM (#6117143)

Perisic looks completely washed up but he has to play every game because Sessegnon is hurt and Spurs have no one else for that position. It's great! (Not that Sessegnon has been amazing when he plays...)

The positive for Tottenham is that Skipp/Sarr did pretty well in midfield.

474. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 14, 2023 at 07:16 PM (#6117148)

I didn't see the game, but it doesn't look like Spurs played well. Still, they are being given a 40% chance to advance with the home game coming up and no away goals rule.

PSG on the other hand is now level with Leipzig as the least likely team to advance to the quarterfinals, given just 18%.

475. jmurph Posted: February 15, 2023 at 07:53 AM (#6117196)

I didn't see the game, but it doesn't look like Spurs played well. Still, they are being given a 40% chance to advance with the home game coming up and no away goals rule.

Yeah Milan aren't great either- given the 1-0 deficit I get the odds being what they are, but I think Tottenham have a very good chance to advance.

476. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: February 15, 2023 at 08:04 AM (#6117199)

PSG without Mbappe is no match for this Bayern team.

At this point, is anybody a match for Bayern, other than maybe City when everybody's healthy and playing well? I can't think of one.

477. Baldrick Posted: February 15, 2023 at 08:53 AM (#6117202)

Well, they started 2023 with four draws in a row in the league IIRC. So they're not exactly firing on all cylinders at the moment.

478. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: February 15, 2023 at 09:35 AM (#6117204)

but I think Tottenham have a very good chance to advance.

Well, Son's a mess, Kulu's had two very bad matches in a row, Conte hasn't been willing to admit either and won't aggressively sub during matches when plan A obviously isn't working.
I am not sanguine about this season. They may take Inter at home, but I don't see them going any further.

479. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 15, 2023 at 09:52 AM (#6117206)

At this point, is anybody a match for Bayern, other than maybe City when everybody's healthy and playing well? I can't think of one.

City is still the big favorite to win the CL. Other than that, probably no one.

But I was being kind to PSG. What I should have said was that without Mbappe they looked abominable and didn't look like they would beat Bayern if they played them 1000 times. They had nothing. That all changed dramatically once they brought him on early in the second half.

480. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 15, 2023 at 09:53 AM (#6117207)

They may take Inter at home, but I don't see them going any further.

The earliest they could face Inter is in the quarters, so that means they would reach the semis at least. Not bad!

(Just kidding--know you meant Milan)

481. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: February 15, 2023 at 09:56 AM (#6117208)

Also, if City does get hit with a points deduction this year -- unlikely though that seems at the moment -- it would significantly cheapen any Arsenal league title, at least for me.

482. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 15, 2023 at 10:21 AM (#6117213)

Yeah Arsenal winning this straight out would be extremely satisfying. Winning it due to a large points deduction would be deflating (but still nice).

In an ideal world Arsenal wins it this year and City gets hit with penalties in a future year. Or even better yet, future years (plural).

483. Spivey Posted: February 15, 2023 at 11:41 AM (#6117217)

See, I'm rooting for City. Arsenal fans don't deserve to be happy, and City don't have fans.

484. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: February 15, 2023 at 12:26 PM (#6117222)

Jesse Marsch is apparently going to take over at Southampton.

Well, that didn't last long ...

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/feb/15/southampton-end-talks-with-jesse-marsch-over-length-of-contract

485. Mefisto Posted: February 15, 2023 at 12:32 PM (#6117224)

I'm not sure Saints are in a position to haggle over contract length at this point.

486. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: February 15, 2023 at 02:05 PM (#6117238)

I'm not sure Marsch was either and taking the job for the rest of the season seems a pretty solid gig.
Lose and nobody really blames you, win and stay up and you get the plaudits and likely an extended contract.

487. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 15, 2023 at 03:14 PM (#6117250)

Mistake by both sides and the game is level. ( Bad backpass, and poor GK by Ederson to make the unnecessary foul). Arsenal has been the better team so far for sure.

488. Mefisto Posted: February 15, 2023 at 03:14 PM (#6117251)

I don't see that as a penalty.

489. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 15, 2023 at 03:18 PM (#6117253)

Disagree on the penalty. The defender ran into the attacker and never got the ball. That it's in the box and the defender in this case is the keeper shouldn't matter. That's a penalty. As one of the announcers said if that happens at midfield it's a foul all day.

490. Mefisto Posted: February 15, 2023 at 03:24 PM (#6117256)

Except that it happens all the time with keepers and they don't get called. ETA: As Mike Goodman put it, "Nketiah got the shot off and then got fouled which is a penalty and rarely called as such."

491. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: February 15, 2023 at 03:29 PM (#6117259)

I'm almost glad I can't watch this. Just following the scoreline is driving me crazy.

492. Mefisto Posted: February 15, 2023 at 03:36 PM (#6117262)

As one of the announcers said if that happens at midfield it's a foul all day.

The announcer was Lee Dixon, who's hardly an unbiased source.

493. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 15, 2023 at 03:45 PM (#6117265)

I don't know if this is a recent refereeing development, but I've seen that kind of thing called a penalty more often than not recently. I think Argentina-Croatia in the World Cup is another example.

494. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 15, 2023 at 03:51 PM (#6117268)

I thought Argentina got a penalty on a similar play in the World Cup.

495. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 15, 2023 at 04:16 PM (#6117277)

This has not been a good second half for Arsenal.

496. Spivey Posted: February 15, 2023 at 04:29 PM (#6117278)

Adeyemi scored one of the more spectacular single handed goals you'll see. Absolutely rinsed Enzo in the process.

497. jmurph Posted: February 15, 2023 at 04:37 PM (#6117280)

Adeyemi scored one of the more spectacular single handed goals you'll see. Absolutely rinsed Enzo in the process.

This didn't disappoint, that's a great goal.

That did not feel like a 3-1 win for Manchester City, felt pretty tense until the 3rd goal (and they were in fact pretty shaky for the few minutes leading up to the final goal). But good win nonetheless.

498. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 15, 2023 at 04:43 PM (#6117282)

City seemed to be in total control in the second half. It was night and day from the first.

499. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 15, 2023 at 04:46 PM (#6117284)

Dortmund seems to be barely hanging on here at the end. If they take the one-goal lead into Chelsea they will be favorites to advance.

500. Mefisto Posted: February 15, 2023 at 04:48 PM (#6117286)

Flip.

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