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Thursday, December 22, 2022
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Yeah it seems like the next guy is gonna look really good.
Liverpool is just not very good right now. They still have good players, but the press isn't working and Fabinho has lost enough of his athleticism that he can't cover for the problems. Plus Joe Gomez isn't what he was before the injuries, Matip is getting old, and everyone is injured. There's not way I'd consider them top 8 in the world or whatever until something changes. They are definitely worse than Arsenal currently.
On top of that, this was in reference to City who are behind Arsenal by 5 points with two games to play against them. But it's not even correct, because Arsenal have a game in hand. So, stupid and also wrong--the double whammy.
City does play Arsenal twice though, and even just draws in those games would be huge for Arsenal. The first is in 9 days in London.
Or it's partner in absurdity, discussion of "the loss column" at any point before the last weekend of the season.
Obviously this is correct but I'm looking up the ridiculous end to the 18-19 season when Manchester City and Liverpool were so good. If I'm counting correctly City closed on a 14 game league winning streak, and Liverpool went 17 unbeaten in the league but had a few draws. Not bad.
Newcastle is on a 17-game unbeaten run right now, but with a #### ton of draws.
edit: All four of those streaks to end the season were part of the top 8 longest streaks ever in the EPL (going down to just 12 in a row). So, the three longest ever to finish a season almost certainly had to have been City (14), Arsenal (13), and United (11).
We'll see how it actually shakes out, but in some ways it;s not the worst time to have a 3-game league suspension. He'll miss Leeds x2 and a home game against Leicester, but that will leave him more rested for the three (arguably) more important games: Barcelona x2 and the EFL final against Newcastle.
Even if you think Europa is not worth caring about, two of the very most popular teams in the world going at it has to be an exception. And while they are both slightly off their heights, Barcelona is clearly a top 5 or 6 team right now and Manchester United can't be much worse than 10th-12th.
Relevant because Newcastle (and Liverpool/Brighton/Chelsea) all have tougher schedules remaining for the Top 4 chase. Brighton has played Liverpool twice at least.
The one thing Newcastle has going for it in this regard (other than not having European football to play) is the home/away split. They've got Arsenal, Man U, Tottenham, Liverpool and Brighton all at St. James'.
Fulham still has to face Sunderland tomorrow.
Replay is a mess in virtually every sport. I think the NHL probably does it best but even that has flaws.
His reaction times should be measured with an hourglass and watching him try to get down on shots is like watching a dead tree toppling over in a forest in slow motion.
Wasn't it midway through the first half?
Arsenal is looking shaky all of a sudden. If they are still favorites for the title, it must be by a very slim margin (assuming no City points deduction).
A disaster! Arsenal did escape a likely goal on a phantom foul and didn't deserve to win by any stretch, if that's any comfort. Brighton on the other hand completely blasted Palace and should have won on almost any other day.
Considering their position in the table, their expectation of about a point coming in, and the fact that it is still level and Leeds are not being outplayed, I don't see why they would not go for the win at least until United show that they are taking charge of the game, if that ever happens. A draw is not that good of a result for Leeds today, and leaves them in the thick of the relegation mess.
edit: apparently xG had Leeds as doing even better than I thought, so you might adjust those to 3.5 expected for United based on performance and 2.0 for Leeds.
edit2: or even 3.25 -- 2.25, depending whose stats you believe.
The Wednesday Arsenal/City game is massive. City is a slight favorite despite the game being in London. A draw by Arsenal doesn't look quite as sweet for them as it did a week ago, but it still would likely put Arsenal back as favorites for winning the title.
Right now by clubelo the EPL has 10 teams in the top 25. The traditional six naturally, and Newcastle now, But also Brighton and Brentford, with even Leicester holding on to 25th. That's partly because the EPL has done well in Europe, but it's also because Brighton and Brentford are also doing very well in the EPL.
Big European matchups this week, so we might see some shakeup.
The judgment calls I am pretty forgiving because you can poll 1000 people and it seems in all cases at least 20% have an opposing view. For these purely mechanical calls wtf VAR.
Funny how going into the City game Spurs actually had a completely healthy team, and a week later their season seems pretty much over due to injuries. I don't see a world where Spurs make Top 4 or go far in the Champions League without Bentancur. Maybe they can fluke the FA Cup.
Just a reminder that these terrible calls happen to every team.
And as was the case of Arsenal/Brentford this weekend, sometimes in the same game.
I just introduced my kids to the Maradona Hand of God goal, so I'm inclined to agree!
I mean, it must be the latter. They don't have any incentive to do the former.
Maybe it's also that even if there is a points deduction, in all likelihood it will hit in a future year?
edit: Liverpool had two very nice goals on the break today. Worth a watch.
Now that they are down maybe we will see them do something.
Overall PSG looked terrible until Mbappe came in but now really deserve a draw at least.
edit: it's days like this when it's clear Messi is no longer the best player in the world anymore.
The positive for Tottenham is that Skipp/Sarr did pretty well in midfield.
PSG on the other hand is now level with Leipzig as the least likely team to advance to the quarterfinals, given just 18%.
Yeah Milan aren't great either- given the 1-0 deficit I get the odds being what they are, but I think Tottenham have a very good chance to advance.
At this point, is anybody a match for Bayern, other than maybe City when everybody's healthy and playing well? I can't think of one.
Well, Son's a mess, Kulu's had two very bad matches in a row, Conte hasn't been willing to admit either and won't aggressively sub during matches when plan A obviously isn't working.
I am not sanguine about this season. They may take Inter at home, but I don't see them going any further.
But I was being kind to PSG. What I should have said was that without Mbappe they looked abominable and didn't look like they would beat Bayern if they played them 1000 times. They had nothing. That all changed dramatically once they brought him on early in the second half.
(Just kidding--know you meant Milan)
In an ideal world Arsenal wins it this year and City gets hit with penalties in a future year. Or even better yet, future years (plural).
Well, that didn't last long ...
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/feb/15/southampton-end-talks-with-jesse-marsch-over-length-of-contract
Lose and nobody really blames you, win and stay up and you get the plaudits and likely an extended contract.
The announcer was Lee Dixon, who's hardly an unbiased source.
This didn't disappoint, that's a great goal.
That did not feel like a 3-1 win for Manchester City, felt pretty tense until the 3rd goal (and they were in fact pretty shaky for the few minutes leading up to the final goal). But good win nonetheless.
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