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OT Soccer Thread - Hi Ho Hi Ho it’s Back to Club Football We Go

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Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 22, 2022 at 09:54 PM | 546 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off topic, soccer

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501. Baldrick Posted: February 16, 2023 at 03:27 AM (#6117331)

It drives me crazy when referees don't call obvious fouls in the box because 'the shot was already away.' But it's also deeply frustrating when they are sporadically called, since they have such an enormous impact and I think you can justifiably be annoyed about the lack of consistency.

More broadly, I find myself increasingly annoyed these days with how pivotal penalties end up being in the game. I don't really have an alternative, but it's a fundamentally very silly thing that minor disagreements about the precise application of a vague rule pretty consistently end up deciding critical games. I think that's actually a big part of what makes VAR so aggravating--that it just heightens the attention in this area.

For the game itself, it mostly fit my expectations. I haven't had the chance to watch much of either team this year, but I didn't see much to change my opinion that City will win the title, and probably do it with a game or two to spare in the end. Arsenal were good, but not that good. And City weren't great, but it was certainly enough.

502. Mefisto Posted: February 16, 2023 at 08:20 AM (#6117340)

My solution to the problem of having penalties be so critical is to call more penalties. Although Lee Dixon was giving a biased take, it *should* be true that a foul outside the box is a penalty inside it. Short term, this will drive everyone nuts. Long term, defenders will have to adjust and the games will give more opportunities for the skill players to shine.

503. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 16, 2023 at 08:38 AM (#6117342)

My solution to the problem of having penalties be so critical is to call more penalties. Although Lee Dixon was giving a biased take, it *should* be true that a foul outside the box is a penalty inside it. Short term, this will drive everyone nuts. Long term, defenders will have to adjust and the games will give more opportunities for the skill players to shin

I don't agree with this at all. If penalties were called very tight in the box, the very best offense would be to lob crosses in all day and have forwards play very aggressively. Yeah the forwards would get a lot of fouls called against them, but this type of play would also force the defense to play aggressively in kind, and there would be a ton of penalties too. This would be ugly and not a situation where skill players shine. It's a direct consequence of penalties usually being too strong reward for fouls in the box.

504. jmurph Posted: February 16, 2023 at 08:40 AM (#6117344)

My solution to the problem of having penalties be so critical is to call more penalties. Although Lee Dixon was giving a biased take, it *should* be true that a foul outside the box is a penalty inside it. Short term, this will drive everyone nuts. Long term, defenders will have to adjust and the games will give more opportunities for the skill players to shine.

I pretty much agree with this and have said similar things about handball calls before. To Baldrick's point, as the game is called now they let a ton of stuff go regularly, and goalkeeper's have special rules (they're basically allowed to murder people on corners when the ball is in the air), that when one does get called it ends up feeling unjust.

505. spivey Posted: February 16, 2023 at 08:49 AM (#6117345)

I agree with AuntBea. At the highest level players are always going to be trying to game the system. I think calling more penalties would just lead to a scenario where tactics likely change a lot and not necessarily in an entertaining way, and a majority of goals would be scored via penalty. It also would still have some of these questions come up. You can't completely get rid of contact in the game. So you have to draw the line somewhere, and there will always be controversy on where that line is and on calls close to it.

I personally think there should be ref discretion on levels of fouls in the box, and the most egregious fouls or fouls denying a strong GSO can have a penalty, but other fouls should have a punishment more in line with the crime (maybe a further back penalty/free kick). And/or changing the dimensions of the box.

Edit: I should add I'm probably ok with a few more penalties called, but I don't think a fundamental shift in how they're called would necessarily be good.

506. SoSH U at work Posted: February 16, 2023 at 08:56 AM (#6117347)

I personally think there should be ref discretion on levels of fouls in the box, and the most egregious fouls or fouls denying a strong GSO can have a penalty, but other fouls should have a punishment more in line with the crime (maybe a further back penalty/free kick). And/or changing the dimensions of the box.

That's how I feel. The problem for me is the punishment is too often far out of proportion with the offense. I'd much rather see penalties when a goal-scoring chance is truly denied, but less penal results when they're not.

507. Mefisto Posted: February 16, 2023 at 09:55 AM (#6117354)

I'm not sure how anyone could define "GSO". But assuming that problem away, if you only penalize GSOs defenders will just commit fouls earlier in the sequence. And what's the punishment for a foul in the box that doesn't deny a GSO? Indirect free kick? Not very entertaining AFAIAC.

508. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: February 16, 2023 at 09:56 AM (#6117356)

That's how I feel. The problem for me is the punishment is too often far out of proportion with the offense. I'd much rather see penalties when a goal-scoring chance is truly denied, but less penal results when they're not.

The problem with that approach is that it incentivises defenders to hack people down in the box. True DOGSOs are exceedingly rare (in part because of the added red card to the offense). You end up eliminating probably 98% of current penalties. And if you do that, why wouldn't defenders just hack down attackers? You will end up increasing fouls in the penalty area by an order of magnitude.

509. SoSH U at work Posted: February 16, 2023 at 10:51 AM (#6117365)

And what's the punishment for a foul in the box that doesn't deny a GSO? Indirect free kick? Not very entertaining AFAIAC.

The entertainment value is not really my concern.

The problem with that approach is that it incentivises defenders to hack people down in the box. True DOGSOs are exceedingly rare (in part because of the added red card to the offense). You end up eliminating probably 98% of current penalties. And if you do that, why wouldn't defenders just hack down attackers? You will end up increasing fouls in the penalty area by an order of magnitude.

I can't imagine this is so unworkable. You caution anyone for such a non GSO-foul, for instance. You're only going to get so many opportunities to hack someone in the box that way.

Too often, to me, the cost of a penalty is simply not commensurate with the act. I'd like to see that fixed.

510. Mefisto Posted: February 16, 2023 at 10:51 AM (#6117366)

I also don't think that "lobbing crosses into the box" will be the consequence. For one thing, it's just not a very effective tactic now, and I don't think the reason is uncalled fouls. For another, it wouldn't mesh well with the idea of "denying a GSO" because it would be too hard to define a GSO in that context and because it would just incentivize fouls *before* a "GSO".

511. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 16, 2023 at 11:56 AM (#6117380)

The penalty rule definitely needs changing somehow, and I'm not sure what the best solution is. I am fairly sure though (IMHO) that the way penalties are called now is a direct response to the fact that the punishment is too often not commensurate with the crime. Giving a penalty is just too much reward much of the time, so the standard for a penalty are very high. This is consequence of trying to make the game better, more satisfying, and more watchable. Simply lowering the standard for what is a penalty without changing other aspects of the rule is not going to change things for the better.

512. Baldrick Posted: February 16, 2023 at 12:34 PM (#6117388)

My somewhat radical solution is to give referees a range of punishments and let them decide which to apply. Worst offenses just result in an automatic goal (think Suarez handling it to prevent a goal). Bad fouls that seem to deny genuine goal scoring chances get a penalty. Lesser offenses get a free kick from outside the box, but let the team taking the kick select their own location.

This would probably be a disaster. But maybe not?

513. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 16, 2023 at 12:55 PM (#6117392)

As a partial solution that no doubt would not be enough, I've always wanted the penalty "spot" to be changed to a line running the width of the box and exactly 12-yards from the goal line. Then, the ball would be placed on the penalty line at the same width of the field where the foul occurred.

They'll never do this of course, but it would be more fun if you ask me.

514. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 16, 2023 at 01:22 PM (#6117397)

Ter Stegen is keeping Barcelona in this.

515. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 16, 2023 at 01:24 PM (#6117398)

Worst offenses just result in an automatic goal (think Suarez handling it to prevent a goal).

Related to my comment about VAR earlier...if this had happened in the age of VAR, Ghana wouldn't have even had a penalty, because there was an uncalled offside before Suarez handled. (Also, the free kick that led to that whole situation came off of a blatant dive by the Ghanaian player, but obviously VAR doesn't look at that sort of thing.)

516. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 16, 2023 at 01:24 PM (#6117399)

Would an old school MLS style penalty kick be better? It feels to me that a PK should be more of a 50-50 proposition than it currently is. It needs to be harsh enough a punishment to discourage fouling but not so harsh as to make refs hesitant to call it.

What about this? Fouls in the box aren't automatically PKs but if it's not a PK it's a red card?

I dunno, just spitballing ideas. I agree with AuntBea, I'd like to see some change but I'm not sure what change would be better.

517. jmurph Posted: February 16, 2023 at 01:42 PM (#6117407)

If we're fixing things they also need to dramatically shrink the penalty area.

518. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 16, 2023 at 02:06 PM (#6117410)

Rashford forced a great save from ter Stegen in the first half, scores the first, and sets up the second. Crazy form he's in.

519. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 16, 2023 at 02:37 PM (#6117416)

Is this what it's like when you watch games that don't have Tottenham involved?

520. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 16, 2023 at 02:56 PM (#6117425)

United hardly played the perfect game, but they still probably should have won. They were the better team today, in Spain no less. They might actually be slight favorites to advance now.

521. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 16, 2023 at 04:56 PM (#6117479)

Similarly to Forster in Tottenham-Milan, Lossl in Midtjylland-Sporting makes a great save to deny a point-blank header from Coates, but Coates just follows up his own shot and scores.

522. NaOH Posted: February 16, 2023 at 05:11 PM (#6117485)

I'm not a soccer person, but I'll poke my head in here to note that between February 21 and March 14 T-Mobile and Metro customers can use the T-Mobile Tuesdays app to get free access to the Apple MLS Season Pass. It provides access to all live MLS regular season and playoff matches, and the Leagues Cup, with no blackouts. Besides using the proper cellular carrier, this also requires any device/browser—not all having to be from Apple—which supports the Apple TV app.

Press Release

523. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 17, 2023 at 11:30 AM (#6117590)

United are still viewed as the inferior team to Barca, but since they have the home game they are favorites to advance at 55%. These two teams along with Arsenal are the big favorites to win Europa, so the game next weak is very high leverage.

Chelsea and Tottenham are both down a goal but have the home game to make up for it. Both slight underdogs to advance in the CL.

524. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2023 at 09:30 AM (#6117760)

Quite the game this morning. I was about to despair for Arsenal's chances for the title.

Even an empty net final second goal, which I almost always see blown for some reason or another, was scored immaculately.

525. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2023 at 09:45 AM (#6117761)

Upemecano off early on a dodgy DOGSO, and not long after Gladbach scores. Bayern in trouble here.

526. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2023 at 09:52 AM (#6117762)

Milwall had the big win today over Sheffield United. United is still mostly sitting pretty, so it's too early to worry about them. Maybe more interestingly, most of the other usual suspects favored for the playoffs are now all out of the top 6 in the table: West Brom, Norwich, and Watford are all suffering a bit. We could have a playoff wihtout any of them, which would be a big surprise coming into the year.

Middlesbrough was also picked to have a good year, and they are mostly living up to it at the moment.

527. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2023 at 10:01 AM (#6117763)

Arsenal played 90 minutes creating almost zero chances despite having tons of the ball--the second half against City and the first half against Villa. Luckily that changed just in time for the win today.

528. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2023 at 10:33 AM (#6117773)

Six EPL games happening right now--all 6 are 0-0 after 30 minutes.

529. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2023 at 11:01 AM (#6117778)

It delights me to no end that an otherwise good but unremarkable player is probably the best free kick taker the world has ever seen.

530. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2023 at 11:28 AM (#6117781)

Lots of time left for these fragile leads to collapse, but at the moment the three favorites for the drop are all winning.

531. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 18, 2023 at 11:45 AM (#6117784)

City spurned chance after chance to get a second, and they've been punished for it.

532. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 18, 2023 at 12:00 PM (#6117789)

Twelve minutes of stoppage time? Did someone get shot?

533. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2023 at 12:06 PM (#6117791)

Somehow Chelsea lost despite all that, and even more crazily, Brighton lost and City drew. The xG on those last two are ridiculous.

Arsenal is the favorite again? It will be close anyway.

edit: and with the other teams all winning, Leeds is now in real risk of being relegated.

534. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2023 at 12:22 PM (#6117795)

Fulham is currently ahead of Brighton in the table, despite a 30+ non-pen xGD goal difference.

535. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2023 at 12:34 PM (#6117797)

City is still the betting favorite to win the title. It's very close again though.

Also, so much for City controlling their own destiny.

536. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2023 at 12:44 PM (#6117798)

Nunez has a ridiculously high non-pen xG per 90. As high as Haaland, with more xA as well. Except for a bit of finishing, he's been really, really good. To me he looks like a good finisher too going through a dry spell (as opposed to a club-footed donkey) so I have very high hopes for him.

edit: well, if you are going to get a DOGSO, might as well be while you are already down 2 goals...

537. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2023 at 01:27 PM (#6117803)

Assuming Liverpool holds on, they will be pretty much neck-and-neck with Newcastle for top 4. Spurs need to win tomorrow to stay close.

538. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: February 18, 2023 at 02:08 PM (#6117804)

Liverpool played great to start but since going up a man have not been very good. They have had to work far harder than they should have.

539. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2023 at 02:14 PM (#6117806)

Yes, it's been a very curious game. Liverpool has looked way too casual after going up and could have been punished on another day.

edit: on one play just a few minutes ago VVD was up for a free kick or something and the ball was given away, and he slowly worked his way back to the back line--took a very long time about it while then ball was in play the whole time.

I know they are not likely to lose this one, but Klopp is screaming on the sideline I think he also sees a lack of urgency from Liverpool. Newcastle on the other hand has been playing with belief despite the long, long odds. Oh well it's over now anyway.

540. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 18, 2023 at 07:36 PM (#6117838)

I have to imagine once they were two goals and a player up Liverpool had an eye on Real Madrid on Tuesday.

541. spivey Posted: February 19, 2023 at 10:27 AM (#6117881)

PSG have been kind of falling apart lately. Saved at the death by an impressive Messi free kick. But it sounds like Luis Campos (sporting director) went down onto the side line mid-game and started shouting at the refs and players. That club is ####### ridiculous.

542. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 19, 2023 at 10:40 AM (#6117883)

EPL winner odds:

city         50
arsenal      43.5
united        6.25
field         0.25

543. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 19, 2023 at 11:49 AM (#6117888)

West Ham get away with a clear handball in the box again. The hell?

544. spivey Posted: February 19, 2023 at 03:18 PM (#6117902)

Run in for 4th should be great.

545. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 19, 2023 at 05:55 PM (#6117909)

Top 4 odds

city         98
arsenal      97.5

united       85

liverpool    39
newcastle    36.5
tottenham    34

brighton      6.5
chelsea       2
field         1.5

546. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 19, 2023 at 06:02 PM (#6117911)

Relegation odds

bournemouth    71
southampton    65

leeds          42
everton        34

forest         27
wolves         21.75
west ham       19

leicester       9.5
palace          8.5

villa           2

field           0.25

Leeds/Southampton 6-pointer next weekend.

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Thursday, December 22, 2022

OT Soccer Thread - Hi Ho Hi Ho it’s Back to Club Football We Go

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