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Wednesday, January 30, 2019

OT Soccer Thread, v.2019

Looks like the last thread is closed, so onto the new!

Upcoming Matches of Interest
2/3 Madrid Derby
2/4 Manchester City v. Arsenal
2/10 Manchester City v. Chelsea
2/12 Manchester United v. PSG
2/13 Tottenham v. Dortmund
2/19 Liverpool v. Bayern Munich
2/24 Manchester United v. Liverpool
2/28 Chelsea v. Tottenham
3/2 North London Derby, Merseyside Derby, & El Classico
3/5 Dortmund v. Tottenham
3/9 Arsenal v. Manchester United
3/13 Bayern Munich v. Liverpool
3/16 Manchester Derby
3/30 Liverpool v. Tottenham

The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: January 30, 2019 at 07:08 PM | 2068 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: soccer

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101. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 10, 2019 at 10:40 AM (#5814066)

Spurs did not look good today. Very lucky to win and overcome some questionable calls, mostly not in their favor. They did catch a break on their second goal though. The Spurs player was looking to block the Leicester clearance with his body in the immediate runup to the goal, so if the ball hit his hand at all away from his body it probably should have been a hand ball. On replay it looks like the ball hits the elbow/forearm which is slghtly away from the body. I think that's given as a handball more often than not, considering the situation.

102. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 10, 2019 at 11:23 AM (#5814076)

3-0. The only drama left in this game is whether City will score another three to drop Chelsea behind Arsenal into 6th place. (I kid, but it's more likely than Chelsea coming back to force a draw.)

4-0 now. City is such a goal scoring machine most days anyway, it was always very likely that if Liverpool and City finished even on points that City would have a significantly better GD. Liverpool probably shouldn't bother with trying to run up the score in their games. Just focus on getting win after win.

103. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: February 10, 2019 at 11:27 AM (#5814078)

Citeh running rampant ...

104. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 10, 2019 at 11:37 AM (#5814080)

The GD is much more likely to come into play in the race for top 4. Chelsea has more to lose by a lopsided scoreline today than City has to gain. Since I generally root against both teams, I say bring on some more goals for City!

105. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: February 10, 2019 at 12:58 PM (#5814104)

Sarri out?

Well, he was pretty sorry ...

106. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: February 10, 2019 at 01:16 PM (#5814108)

And not shaking hands at the end?

Meh ...

107. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 10, 2019 at 01:47 PM (#5814112)

Amusingly 538's "Non-shot xG" had it as 2.1 - 1.6 in Chelsea's favor.

108. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 10, 2019 at 02:01 PM (#5814117)

Amusingly 538's "Non-shot xG" had it as 2.1 - 1.6 in Chelsea's favor.

It's statistical only, mostly based on stuff that happens in the box. It seems to reward teams that have box possession but can't get good shots off, and punish teams that have breakaways with big chances. I think it's one of those stats that has to be used in context. It seems less predictive than regular xG. If I were weighting actual goals, shot xG and non-shot xG (like 538 does), I might do 40/40/20 or 25/50/25. non-shot xG wouldn't be given as much weight as xG.

109. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 10, 2019 at 03:42 PM (#5814139)

For most teams, non-shot xGD does a fairly good job of tracking actual GD. For example, City is at +49 this year, which is close to the actual +54 (and closer than traditional xG as well). Chelsea is at +14 versus actual +16.

Biggest over-performers (in actual GD versus non-shot xGD) are Tottenham (+22) and Man. United (+13). Biggest under-performers are Huddersfield (-26) and Fulham (-17). I think everyone else is within 10 or close to it, and many teams are within 5.

Actual GD v xGD has Tottenham (+13), Arsenal (+11), Fulham (-13) and Huddersfield (-11) as the four biggest. All numbers approximate.

110. spivey Posted: February 10, 2019 at 04:08 PM (#5814146)

"takes Son completely out" is not at all an accurate description of that play, btw. Maquire, like all defenders, is justly upset when a player throws himself down unnecessarily on minimal contact trying to draw a penalty, even if there was contact. I could definitely do without the pointing in the face, but like the original embellishment, it's a way to work the ref.

I'm ok with it not being given, but he was fouled, I think it almost certainly *is* called anywhere else on the pitch, and Maguire is a ####### center back. He knows or should know the number one rule of stabbing on a ball like that is you absolutely can't do it unless you know you're going to be first to it.

I think Vertonghen's call was pretty soft too, and I think Son's was more a penalty than the one Spurs gave up, though I think Vertonghen did kind of go through the leg of Maddison. Beyond that, Leicester out-xG'ed Liverpool at home a week or two ago and played Man U straight up in the last week or so as well. They are good, and this was a classic match that we needed our elite talent to score goals because we weren't winning midfield. That happened.

It is frustrating to play teams like Wolves and Leicester and get overrun in midfield. I'm not asking to bring in world class guys. But we shouldn't have a worse central midfield than the mid-table teams. I think that Poch probably leaves if they don't open the purse strings for that.

111. Mefisto Posted: February 10, 2019 at 05:55 PM (#5814170)

I thought the foul on Son was absolutely a penalty. Giving him a yellow just added to the absurdity.

Leicester are one replacement for Vardy away from being a top level team. Easier said than done, of course.

Looks like I may have been overly optimistic about Sarri and Chelsea last month. He sure is a stubborn guy.

ETA: If Poch does leave Spurs and goes to United, he's not likely to be happy with their midfield either.

112. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: February 10, 2019 at 06:21 PM (#5814180)

That was a clear pen on Son. Absolutely right that giving him a yellow (to Son, for diving, WTF?, do you know him???) was adding insult to injury.

Spurs need fullbacks and a midfield. Levy has been penny wise and pound foolish.

It's so ####### obvious and sooooooooooo frustrating.

[edit] Oh, and pay Toby and Christian what they want ...

113. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 10, 2019 at 08:47 PM (#5814198)

A very un unscientific survey of comments and opinions I just did showed about 70/30 think it was a penalty, and only about 10% of people thought it deserved a caution. A significant number of people thought Son thrust his leg into Maguire's plant foot unnecessarily, and if he had just run naturally there would have been no contact (or at least not enough to justify a penalty). The vast majority of people agree that Son didn't have to go down regardless of whether he created the contact or not, but only did so to try to draw the ref's attention to the contact. For most people it's ok to embellish so long as there was enough contact to warrant a penalty, so that didn't sway most people's opinion. The 10% that wanted to give Son a caution think it's not ok to embellish under any circumstance. Everybody saw the contact.

If you want to say it should be a penalty, I would respectfully disagree but could understand that perspective. I wouldn't call it a clear penalty though.

114. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2019 at 12:18 AM (#5814226)

Updated CL odds (odds right after the draw from December in parens). There really hasn't been much movement on these except ManU/PSG, with the Tottenham odds moving a little bit as well.

Man. City 94% (93%)
Barcelona 86.5% (85%)
Real Madrid 77.5% (78%)
Juventus 63% (63%)

PSG 61.5% (77%) - ManU resurgence, and PSG injuries. In addition to Neymar being out for both legs, Cavani and Meunier are out for the first leg. Veratti is supposed to be playing though.

Dortmund 55% (50%) - Tottenham injuries.
Porto 50% (53%)

Liverpool 50% (51%) - Liverpool drifted up a few percent for a while, but the shine has come off them just a tad, while Bayern has recovered quite a bit from their subpar start.

115. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 11, 2019 at 08:28 AM (#5814244)

You know, I kind of can see the Spurs might really be in the title race. They're only 5 points back with plenty of games to play and they, largely, control their destiny with games against Man City and Liverpool left. They are scuffling now but still winning and have Kane and Alli coming back. This is interesting. And then I watch Man City completely pants Chelsea and I think, hell naw, 3rd place is good enough. There is no way we are catching Man City. Maybe there's a small chance to reel in Liverpool, but not City. BTW, Tottenham's press is really suffering without Kane. Llorente can not press at all and I wanted to hug Son for his efforts to press in the final third ALL BY HIMSELF. My god, he must have been tired after that game. Llorente's lack of a motor makes things very hard for everyone else.

Sarri's time at Chelsea is reminding me a lot of AVB's time at Spurs. A lot of stale possession, relying on one player to make magic and win games, and just melting down against the best sides. Not altogether terrible, but scrapping for 4th place the best you can hope for unless it REALLY goes south (and it might and you end up with Tim Sherwood clowning around for 3 months)...

116. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2019 at 09:28 AM (#5814256)

Tottenham's current betting odds to be EPL winner is about the same as their betting odds of winning the Champions League: 3%. 538 has it as 4% CL and2% EPL.

117. The_Ex Posted: February 11, 2019 at 09:34 AM (#5814257)

If Spurs get knocked out of Europe, and if Man City and Liverpool go deep, as far as the semi-final, then Spurs have a chance to challenge. Pep usually plays the same players over and over so fatigue could set in as they are still playing in four competitions. Liverpool are out of the FA Cup and Oxlade Chamberlain could be back soon so their demise is less likely, but if Spurs beat them?

118. spivey Posted: February 11, 2019 at 09:37 AM (#5814258)

I think Tottenham is way more likely to win the CL. Mainly down to the randomness of it.

I feel like the only way that the Tottenham wins the league is with significant injuries to Liverpool and City. Even with City, it's hard to see. They are so deep at so many positions. It's hard to imagine Pool and City not bossing midfield vs. Spurs, which basically means any results will be massively against the run of play. And those teams are just way more comfortable in getting 3 points off of weak teams, this years absurd stretch of non-draws not withstanding.

119. spivey Posted: February 11, 2019 at 12:38 PM (#5814294)

I have no idea how Ramsey is set to have among the highest wages in the world, assuming the reports are true. Seems like a Sanchez-level contract that is a massive overpay even before it starts.

120. jmurph Posted: February 11, 2019 at 01:05 PM (#5814307)

If Poch does leave Spurs and goes to United

Just for the record, there's virtually no chance this happens, right? 50 million pounds, supposedly, plus United are getting results under OGS. I imagine he just gets a two year deal.

121. jmurph Posted: February 11, 2019 at 01:06 PM (#5814309)

I have no idea how Ramsey is set to have among the highest wages in the world, assuming the reports are true. Seems like a Sanchez-level contract that is a massive overpay even before it starts.

I agree this is obviously crazy, but are they just sort of pricing in that they're getting him with no transfer fee?

122. spivey Posted: February 11, 2019 at 01:13 PM (#5814315)

I agree this is obviously crazy, but are they just sort of pricing in that they're getting him with no transfer fee?

I mean, I think they are, but I don't see why they had to go so high anyways. Who else would even come close to this?

I feel like wage structure at clubs does matter some, and it's weird to me that Ramsey, who I rate as probably one of the worst of the Juventus starters next year, is getting paid like double anyone else.

123. Topher Posted: February 11, 2019 at 01:25 PM (#5814326)

I mean, I think they are, but I don't see why they had to go so high anyways. Who else would even come close to this?

I find this part fascinating. Because I think I agree that nobody else was likely to come close to those wages but at the same time, plenty of teams should be willing to approach that level assuming they wouldn't blush at a €50M+ fee.

Post-Bosman, the clubs have done a remarkable job of keeping wage structures more or less the same regardless of how you were acquired or whether or not you re-upped. This makes zero sense for an individual transaction. Why is Pogba, for example, likely making pretty much close to the same wages had he come on a free?

I do recognize that players that leave on a free seem to make a bit more in wages than they otherwise would, but nowhere near the package it would have taken to acquire the player and pay a transfer fee.

In my mind, most stars should almost always be running out their contracts but few end up doing that.

124. jmurph Posted: February 11, 2019 at 01:36 PM (#5814334)

In my mind, most stars should almost always be running out their contracts but few end up doing that.

MCoA made this point on twitter today. Grab that payday when you're 20 or 21, moving to a big team for the first time via a massive transfer, sure. But after that, they should be running them down more.

125. spivey Posted: February 11, 2019 at 01:42 PM (#5814341)

I'm pretty worried that is what Eriksen is doing. I'd love for him to resign... but you know, if he isn't, it'd be nice to have 100 million pounds to reinvest in the squad.

126. Mefisto Posted: February 11, 2019 at 02:28 PM (#5814365)

I'm not at all confident about OGS as a long term manager. We'll know a lot more after the next month. But that's a huge sum of money and it could be spent on players....

127. jmurph Posted: February 11, 2019 at 02:55 PM (#5814375)

People are now reporting Ramsey will actually make 250K per week, not 400.

128. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 11, 2019 at 03:25 PM (#5814384)

People are now reporting Ramsey will actually make 250K per week, not 400.

If true, that's still crazy money for Aaron ####### Ramsey. That said, I don't believe anything when it comes to "reporting" on salaries. The information is nowhere near as transparent as it is in American sports.

129. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 11, 2019 at 03:27 PM (#5814386)

A couple more weeks of rooting for Man U should do it.

It makes me feel gross, but you gotta do what you gotta do.

130. The Marksist Posted: February 11, 2019 at 03:38 PM (#5814394)

A couple more weeks of rooting for Man U should do it.

It makes me feel gross, but you gotta do what you gotta do.

It's possible he's actually a good manager, right?

131. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 11, 2019 at 03:46 PM (#5814398)

It's possible he's actually a good manager, right?

Sure. Let's give him a few years and find out.

132. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: February 11, 2019 at 03:46 PM (#5814399)

A more interesting question is which manager Man U could hire, at doubtless significant expense, would clearly be better?

133. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 11, 2019 at 03:55 PM (#5814406)

I think a lot more will be said about Ole, one way or the other, after the next several games (in order):

v PSG (CL)
at Chelsea (FA cup)
v Liverpool (EPL)
at Palace (EPL)
v Southampton (EPL)
at PSG (CL)
at Arsenal (EPL)
v Man. City (EPL)

That's 6 very hard games, one that's decently challenging (away to Palace) and one easy one (Southampton).

134. spivey Posted: February 11, 2019 at 04:13 PM (#5814409)

OGS seems like a solid enough manager, though I can't help but notice that they seem to be pretty significantly overperforming with him while significantly underperforming xG with Mourinho. That makes me smile because Mourinho is insufferable.

But Man U has played 3 good teams:

@ Leiceister: Lost xG 1.75-1.45
@ Tottenham: Lost xG 1.80-0.96
@ Arsenal: Lost xG 1.8-1.2

I mean, all are road games, so they're tough games. Now he's facing PSG without Cavani and Neymar.

Things have gone well, the players seem happy and they're playing more attacking. But I'm decidedly wait and see. I still think they're a pretty solid cut below the top tier of the league.

135. Mefisto Posted: February 11, 2019 at 04:22 PM (#5814411)

I agree with 134. Solskjaer has made sensible changes, but that doesn't make them a top level team or him a top level manager. His first test will be the schedule in 133. Then we have to see who's going to make the calls for new signings (assuming he gets that chance). I trust Poch on both scores. I wouldn't yet trust Solskjaer. Still, 50 million is a lot of money.

136. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: February 11, 2019 at 04:43 PM (#5814417)

Before this season, I would have said that Poch was going nowhere. After the last 2 transfer windows and the stadium shitshow, I'm just not sure where his mind is now, though I do know where Daniel Levy's is and Poch will not come cheap to any team looking to pry him away ...

137. spivey Posted: February 12, 2019 at 10:11 AM (#5814570)

Was there a discussion of good *coughs* soccer streams and/or replay sites?

138. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 12, 2019 at 10:22 AM (#5814571)

139. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: February 12, 2019 at 10:57 AM (#5814584)

I think of the three, PSG was/is the most likely destination if it happens, so a lot is riding on today's CL matchup, but I can't see Poch sticking around if there isn't a significant investment in the squad this off season; he's fighting for the toughest top 4 in football with at least one hand tied behind his back, at a certain point, the project becomes not worth it any more. Levy is leaving things late and it's not fun to watch when it's so obvious. Penny wise and pound foolish comes to mind, FFP has to be respected, but there is obviously a middle ground there and Spurs having to (supposedly) sell in order to spend ... anything ... is a giant frustration.

Coughing up for Toby and Christian would be a significant start, but that just seems less and less and less likely and more and more stupid by the day ...

140. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 12, 2019 at 05:09 PM (#5814694)

ManU is effectively out of the CL now, barring a miracle, and are only given about a 40% chance at Chelsea to stay in the FA cup. After this weekend it's likely they'll only have 4th in the league to play for.

141. spivey Posted: February 12, 2019 at 06:39 PM (#5814710)

Man U got bossed in the middle of the park because of course they did, especially after the first half hour or so. The Sanchez/Mata forced subs didn't do them any favors, of course. The Pogba red was pretty harsh for me. I think he genuinely thought he was going to beat Alves to that ball, and I don't think it was that hard or malicious.

142. Mefisto Posted: February 12, 2019 at 07:02 PM (#5814714)

I didn't have a problem with Pogba's red. Heck, I thought Young and Kimpebe should have been sent off too.

For me, the big issue for United was the loss of Lingard and Martial. Having those 2 in the team forced PSG to play more conservatively in order to avoid fast breaks. In addition, Lingard does a lot of work pressuring the opponents and Martial is the usual out ball. Forced replacements with Mata and Sanchez completely changes the team and the reasons why United have been successful for the past 2 months. Neither is useful on a fast break, neither defends very well, and Sanchez isn't useful for an out ball. That's not to say that either is a bad player -- though I think Sanchez is about done -- just that they don't fit United's current needs (mostly 2 quality midfielders and a right back).

143. manchestermets Posted: February 13, 2019 at 04:50 AM (#5814782)

they don't fit United's current needs (mostly 2 quality midfielders and a right back).

They have a right back (Dalot), but for some reason they won't play him. He's consistently looked better than Young when he has played - when it briefly looked like it was Young that had been sent off last night it gave me a glimmer of hope for the second leg.

I'd say the needs are a centre half, a central midfielder and a right winger. They'd need another centre half regardless, but for all the talk of Lindelof's recent improvement under Solskjaer he's still looked horribly slow, and Mbappe giving him a five yard start for the second goal last night epitomised that. Matic is pretty much done - he's fine against mediocre premier league teams, but he the game bypassed him last night. I like Lingard, but I honestly think he's just a touch below the class required if United want to be winning the league again.

I don't want Sanchez anywhere near the team again. He should definitely be out in the summer, and the spin for the failure of the signing can be conveniently directed at Mourinho. Lukaku and Mata should be the players to come in for Martial and Lingard against Chelsea, and I'd rather see more of Tahith Chong and Angel Gomes than any more of Sanchez.

144. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 13, 2019 at 07:35 AM (#5814786)

The Pogba red was pretty harsh for me. I think he genuinely thought he was going to beat Alves to that ball, and I don't think it was that hard or malicious.

Can't agree. That was a clear yellow and it was borderline straight red.

145. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2019 at 09:58 AM (#5814807)

It's easily a yellow. Whether Pogba was just tired or annoyed or what, he seemed to be playing the man and not the ball. He may have been trying to get his body in between Alves and the ball, but even if so he was way late, too far away (so he had to reach with his leg), and worst of all came with his studs high. If he had made more contact you would have seen people justly calling for a straight red.

The really dumb thing is that there was little hope at that point in the game for much to change in ManU's favor, and it wasn't in an especially critical location on the field. Pogba really needed to be playing more cautiously there considering he was on a yellow.

146. Mefisto Posted: February 13, 2019 at 10:30 AM (#5814840)

Pogba is prone to these kinds of fouls, where he seems to lose track of the larger picture because he's trying too hard.

147. spivey Posted: February 13, 2019 at 10:33 AM (#5814844)

For me, the big issue for United was the loss of Lingard and Martial. Having those 2 in the team forced PSG to play more conservatively in order to avoid fast breaks. In addition, Lingard does a lot of work pressuring the opponents and Martial is the usual out ball.

Rashford was also playing/dropping deeper with Martial there. I agree. It was a very frenetic pressing game the first 30-35 minutes, with neither team looking super comfortable breaking the press. I thought it was even and probably the best build up play was coming from United until the second half.

148. Mefisto Posted: February 13, 2019 at 10:50 AM (#5814854)

Credit to PSG too. Under Solskjaer, United score goals in 2 ways: fast breaks by the front three; or something brilliant from Pogba. PSG completely shut down Pogba in the first half, which forced Matic to do lots of dribbling/passing, neither of which he's all that good at. They also sat fairly deep and prevented any fast breaks. Plus they bet that Mbappe could break faster; they were right.

149. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 13, 2019 at 12:57 PM (#5814941)

Declan Rice has broken Ireland's hearts. What are everyone's thoughts on Rice? Is he GOOD or is he West Ham good? He looks pretty good to me but he reminds me an awful lot of Eric Dier. I like Dier so I'd say that's GOOD, I guess. I just don't think he's the second coming of Frank Lampard. Since he's home grown I expect him to a squad player at Man City or Man United before too long.

150. Mefisto Posted: February 13, 2019 at 01:09 PM (#5814952)

MCOA described Rice as "not good yet", but with the potential to become good. Seems fair.

ETA: Oops, sorry, that was Mike Goodman who said that. See https://statsbomb.com/2018/10/statsbomb-mailbag-real-madrid-declan-rice-penalties-marriage-advice-and-more/

151. jmurph Posted: February 13, 2019 at 02:05 PM (#5814998)

Nice article in the NYTimes about the guy who is principally known for posting in this thread, and secondarily for his day job at Sports Reference.

152. spivey Posted: February 13, 2019 at 02:21 PM (#5815017)

xG of the PSG/Man U game via Caley_Graphics was 1.9-0.3. This counts the M'Bappe miss where he was offsides and would have been overturned by VAR, so let's say it's more like 1.5-0.3. Still pretty impressive for a road performance.

--

For Tottenham, looks like they're lining up in a 5-3-2, with Foyth starting. I'm not loving that, though Poch has earned a lot of the benefit of the doubt.

Looks like Dortmund are starting Pulisic. Reus is out injured and their center backs are also pretty injured IIRC.

153. Mefisto Posted: February 13, 2019 at 02:25 PM (#5815020)

Still pretty impressive for a road performance.

Even more impressive when you add in that they were missing Neymar and Cavani.

154. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 13, 2019 at 02:47 PM (#5815035)

Not really confident with this lineup, but you can't fight injuries. Just stay in the tie, lads, the cavalry is coming for the return leg if you keep it close!

155. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 13, 2019 at 03:07 PM (#5815041)

Some confident work from Foyth there.

156. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 13, 2019 at 03:17 PM (#5815042)

Fine line between confident and reckless, Juan.

157. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 13, 2019 at 03:50 PM (#5815051)

Well, hanging in there. Spurs are creating chances in build up but Dortmund look more dangerous on the break. Not having Rose or Davies really hurts in this game. Vertonghen doesn't have the motor to play as a wingback. I saw this first hand when I saw him play LB against Chelsea at White Hart Lane. He gets gassed and that was 5 years ago! This game is going to make a man out of Juan Foyth, too.

In the JV game, Ajax and Real are 0-0.

158. spivey Posted: February 13, 2019 at 03:50 PM (#5815053)

Foyth does way too much risky #### in terms of doddling on the ball and making runs that really clear out space, which if he loses the ball opens up a ton of space. Not having a real LB is also really compromising the Tottenham left flank against Sancho. And yeah, Sancho has been as advertised.

159. spivey Posted: February 13, 2019 at 03:54 PM (#5815056)

Sissoko's passing has also been shambolic.

That said, Moura and Son have been dangerous. But Dortmund's front line has been too. Tottenham isn't getting bossed in midfield quite as much as I was worried about.

160. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 13, 2019 at 04:02 PM (#5815060)

If it was Pepsi's goal to create the world's most off-putting commercials, then well played.

161. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 13, 2019 at 04:05 PM (#5815063)

Insert your Son puns here! Mine is Let the Son shine in!

162. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 13, 2019 at 04:06 PM (#5815064)

My dog really freaks out to my reaction when Spurs score. Who knew pit bulls were such wusses.

163. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: February 13, 2019 at 04:43 PM (#5815072)

#getjanyvertshisgoal!!!

A two goal difference is what is wanted ... Oops, Nando just made it three!!!
(Edit) Still isn't done, without a late goal.here from.BvB, I heavily figure Spure' chances

164. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 13, 2019 at 04:45 PM (#5815073)

Holy shit.

165. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 13, 2019 at 04:53 PM (#5815074)

That was brilliant from Poch. Verts is struggling so instead of dropping the team back into a bunker he pushes the line up to compress the space Pulisic and Sancho had to work with and Verts can concentrate on just being a great footballer. European nights!

166. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: February 13, 2019 at 04:55 PM (#5815077)

Holy #### Jan Vertonghen.

167. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 13, 2019 at 05:11 PM (#5815085)

The xG and non-shot xG numbers were almost the same in the PSG win as the Tottenham win. Both losers had their moments, but in the end got almost no quality chances and were soundly beaten.

The sad news of the day is that Real stole won from Ajax. We saw that happen a few times last year... the xG numbers don't even include the goal that was ruled out.

168. spivey Posted: February 13, 2019 at 06:13 PM (#5815107)

Yesssssss. Such an amazing performance from Tottenham in the second half, and have to say a pretty disappointing one from Dortmund. Aurier should start all critical matches from now on.

169. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: February 13, 2019 at 09:23 PM (#5815140)

The xG and non-shot xG numbers were almost the same in the PSG win as the Tottenham win. Both losers had their moments, but in the end got almost no quality chances and were soundly beaten.

So, MCoA had the Spurs/BvB game @ 2.0 v 0.4 which is further apart than I would think, but damn if there weren't 15 minutes or so where I was just irrationally giddy ...

https://twitter.com/Caley_graphics/status/1095805933270245378/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1095805933270245378&ref_url=https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2019/2/13/18223712/tottenham-3-0-dortmund-champions-league-goals-match-report-son-vertonghen-llorente-bvb-highlights

170. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: February 14, 2019 at 04:00 AM (#5815185)

This might warm the cockles of my heart even more Spurs' win this afternoon:

Blackpool have been put into receivership so the club can be sold and the proceeds used to pay off some of the £22m owed by their owners, the Oyston family, to the Latvian banker Valeri Belokon, a court has ordered.

English Football League rules state that if a club suffer “an insolvency event”, which includes the appointment of a receiver, they receive a 12-point deduction, but the league has not yet determined whether that penalty will be imposed in this case.

The receivership of the club, an associated company and other assets owned by Owen Oyston and his son, the former club chairman Karl, was ordered by the high court after it heard the money is still owed to Belokon.

The millions are owed by the Oystons to Belokon following a court judgment in 2017 that the Oystons “illegitimately stripped” the club of £26.77m in a salary and other payments to their own companies, following Blackpool’s single 2010-11 season in the Premier League. They were ordered to pay that sum to Belokon, plus the £4.5m cost of his 20% investment in the club in 2006, a total of £31m, of which only £10m is understood to have been paid.

Graun

171. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 14, 2019 at 08:36 AM (#5815202)

I'm still buzzing from that game yesterday. What an ass kicking that second half was. That was right up there with the demolition of defending champs Inter and the comfortable win last year against Real in recent Spurs history. Just gotta enjoy these moments when they come. I'm really a little shocked by how much Harry Winks has progressed in the last year. And that was a good learning experience for Juan Foyth. I think it's interesting to compare Foyth's development to John Stones who also made many of the same mistakes early in his career that Foyth is making now. I think they'll end up being very similar players.

172. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 14, 2019 at 09:55 AM (#5815221)

This is a funny message board thread.

173. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 15, 2019 at 12:24 PM (#5815659)

Your Generation X guide to the Champions League

I am shocked The Guardian didn't open this up to comments below the line.

174. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 15, 2019 at 01:30 PM (#5815690)

Not a day for upsets in the Europa league yesterday. All teams in the top 4 leagues either won their games or achieved fairly difficult road draws. (Lazio also lost to Sevilla in the only head-to-head.)

Except of course Arsenal.

The only other upset to speak of was Salzburg losing to Brugge, also on the road. Both Arsenal and Salzburg are still favored to advance.

175. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt!

Posted: February 15, 2019 at 02:15 PM (#5815717)

Except of course Arsenal.

I enjoyed the flood of "can't even master BATE on Valentine's Day" hacky jokes yesterday!

176. Mefisto Posted: February 16, 2019 at 07:42 PM (#5815923)

JFC. The Sun (yes, I know) is reporting that Mohammed bin Salman is making an offer to buy Manchester United.

177. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 17, 2019 at 09:09 AM (#5815954)

Real Madrid lost to Girona at home, and according to xG got thoroughly outplayed in the process. They weren't one of the best teams in the CL last year but won it anyway. It would be shocking and depressing if that happened again this year, considering that they seem to be significantly worse now.

Ramos got another red in then 90th minute of the Girona game.

By all rights, Ramos should miss the first game of the CL quarters for getting an intentional caution late in the Ajax game to clear his slate of yellows, something he admitted to on social media and which has a specific proscribed punishment (missing an extra game, which would be the first game of the quarterfinals). UEFA better not wimp out.

178. spivey Posted: February 17, 2019 at 09:12 AM (#5815955)

I think Ajax can still win that tie. They played Bayern really tough on the road and Bayern is way better than Real.

179. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 17, 2019 at 09:15 AM (#5815956)

Man what a let-off for Wolves. Clear penalty should have been called on that handling in the box. Wolves have been the better team today, but they got a break there.

180. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 17, 2019 at 09:20 AM (#5815957)

538 is really high on Ajax overall, probably undeservedly so. They give Ajax still a 24% chance to advance. Betting odds have it as just under 10%. Depending on where you fall on that spectrum, they either have a puncher's chance or it would take a major upset. I'd put it somewhere in between. Maybe 15%.

181. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 17, 2019 at 09:57 AM (#5815963)

Heh. Bristol poured it on in the second half, but couldn't get the goal they needed. Wolves just survived.

182. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 17, 2019 at 11:18 AM (#5815969)

How useless are player ratings? Despite the fact that Real Madrid's loss was arguably the biggest upset in La Liga this year, and definitely the biggest if you count the fact that they also lost the xG battle by a significant margin, ESPN gave every Madrid player and coach at least a 6 (including subs), with the exception of Ramos who got a red card (4) and Marcelo who got a 5.

If everybody on Real Madrid truly had an average day, how did they end up giving up so many quality chances and losing the game? Absent truly bad luck, which should be reflected at least somewhat in the xG totals, if everyone truly had an average day the game should never have been in doubt let alone lost.

183. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 17, 2019 at 11:25 AM (#5815971)

If you forget for a second how good City really is, this FA cup is quite open. Wolves, Watford and Palace are all good enough to beat Chelsea or Man U, especially if they get a home draw.

184. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 17, 2019 at 11:38 AM (#5815973)

Clear missed penalty on Doncaster. Again a handling in the box. Should have been no question based on the rules as they are currently supposed to be applied.

185. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 17, 2019 at 11:41 AM (#5815974)

I think the Ajax odds are a mix of three things;

1. I think they are in fact pretty good.

2. Frankie de Jong is very very very good. A good striker is in my opinion the kind of player who changes things in a way no other player on the pitch can. That guy who can finish the only chance or two chances that fall to him over 90 minutes can be a very big deal.

3. Real are probably being underrated a bit numerically because of the first half of the season which may or may not result in an accurate assessment of Real Madrid as they are on February 16th.

186. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 17, 2019 at 11:50 AM (#5815977)

I really don't understand 538's odds here (24% Ajax advance). In order for the odds to be that high, you'd basically have to think Ajax was equal to Madrid in Madrid, because a draw or 1-0 loss does Ajax no good, and even a 2-1 loss only gives them a 50% chance. In other words, you'd have to think they were better than Madrid by at least the HFA. Even 538, who is very high on Ajax (has them a hair behind Napoli, and Chelsea's equal), doesn't think they are as good as Madrid, and certainly not better than them by a margin equal to the HFA.

When you put it all together, it's very difficult for a neutral-field underdog to get much higher than a 15% chance to overcome a 1-2 home loss in a home and home.

187. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 17, 2019 at 12:28 PM (#5815985)

Swansea were abject in the first half, it looked like Brentford were set to go through already up 1-0. Instead it’s all gone tits up in the second half, Swansea have scored three goals, Brentford have had a man sent off for DOGSO.

188. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: February 17, 2019 at 01:36 PM (#5815992)

I was once on a baseball team that lost 56-0 in an international team tourney game, so I can feel for these guys ...

Serie C’s bottom club Pro Piacenza have endured a tough season, resulting in point deductions and forfeiting matches but their latest setback was almost beyond belief as they were only able to field seven players in a 20-0 defeat at mid-table Cuneo.

Before Sunday, Pro Piacenza had forfeited four games and faced being thrown out of the league if they had failed to complete another match. To avoid that fate, they scraped together seven teenagers – the minimum number of players required – who were willing to be lambs to the slaughter for the unenviable task of taking on 11 professionals. In addition to a lack of players, there were no coaching staff on hand for Pro Piacenza, meaning their teenage captain also had to take on the role of manager.

Graun

189. spivey Posted: February 17, 2019 at 02:37 PM (#5815997)

Ajax is good but they aren’t even leading their league right now and I think Feyenoord beat them 6-2 recently. They are not on the Napoli/Chelsea level for me.

Edit: Ramos is probably the best Real player these days so him missing the home leg could actually matter.

190. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 18, 2019 at 03:53 PM (#5816199)

I hate the different standards for a foul in the box by the attacker versus the standards for a defender. I’m fine with officials not wanting to give penalties but let the attackers create the same kind of mayhem defenders are allowed to get away with.

And I have no love for Chelsea but Matic should have been sent off for the second yellow. The ref choked there pure and simple.

191. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: February 18, 2019 at 04:00 PM (#5816202)

#190 ... +1

If it's enough of a foul it's enough of a foul, regardless of time, place and whether you already booked a player ...

192. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 18, 2019 at 04:07 PM (#5816204)

Nuremberg are doing Bayern Munich a solid. If they hold on for 15 more minutes the lead is just 3 points.

193. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: February 18, 2019 at 04:28 PM (#5816212)

So ... Sarri out, sometime quite soon, right?

194. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 18, 2019 at 04:35 PM (#5816213)

I gotta think he is. It’s stupid to get rid of him, you hire Sarri you should give him time to put together the team he wants but Chelsea have demonstrated pretty conclusively that patience is not part of the drill.

195. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: February 18, 2019 at 04:36 PM (#5816214)

Nuremberg hold on for the 0-0. Dortmund 3 points up and they are really in bad form. I won’t be shocked if Bayern have regained first place by the start of baseball season.

196. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: February 18, 2019 at 04:37 PM (#5816215)

I hate the different standards for a foul in the box by the attacker versus the standards for a defender.

It's Bayesian, and necessary. In many plays, the ref can't really tell who initiated the contact. Because the punishment is not at all symmetric, the ref can't call fouls evenly or offensive players would just create contact on every play in the box, knowing that they'll get a significant number of calls there way.

The only way to make it work is to make the punishment significantly less unequally harsh. Basically either change the penalty rule or put up with the way it's called now.

Dortmund is in a tailspin. Sure they probably outplayed Nurnberg, but not by much--they only had 1 xG or so, and Nurnberg is terrible. It's a game they could not drop points in.

197. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: February 18, 2019 at 04:52 PM (#5816220)

So, what's "The Tie" of the quarters?

I think I'm leaning Wolves vs United ...

198. spivey Posted: February 18, 2019 at 05:06 PM (#5816222)

I mean straights are dire for Chelsea right now but they're still probably the best of the teams fighting for 4th, they're in the Carabao Cup final, and winning the Europa League is very much in play even if they manage to not finish top 4. But if he doesn't finish top 4 and doesn't win anything else, yeah, he's probably gone. I think he deserves some blame, but is getting too much. Their roster has filled with malcontents, is aging, and has had a goal scoring problem ever since Diego Costa left.

My worry is less this game and more the lack of a backup plan. They've struggled when teams man-mark Jorginho, which to be fair is also a reflection of the other players on their team. I think it's pretty naive to go into the Etihad and line up like they did.

199. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: February 18, 2019 at 05:16 PM (#5816225)

they're in the Carabao Cup final

Well, somebody has to be there for City to kick the ball around against ...

200. spivey Posted: February 18, 2019 at 05:17 PM (#5816226)

Dortmund is dealing with a lot of injuries, but yeah, they're fading fast.

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