Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Looks like the last thread is closed, so onto the new!
Upcoming Matches of Interest
2/3 Madrid Derby
2/4 Manchester City v. Arsenal
2/10 Manchester City v. Chelsea
2/12 Manchester United v. PSG
2/13 Tottenham v. Dortmund
2/19 Liverpool v. Bayern Munich
2/24 Manchester United v. Liverpool
2/28 Chelsea v. Tottenham
3/2 North London Derby, Merseyside Derby, & El Classico
3/5 Dortmund v. Tottenham
3/9 Arsenal v. Manchester United
3/13 Bayern Munich v. Liverpool
3/16 Manchester Derby
3/30 Liverpool v. Tottenham
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
4-0 now. City is such a goal scoring machine most days anyway, it was always very likely that if Liverpool and City finished even on points that City would have a significantly better GD. Liverpool probably shouldn't bother with trying to run up the score in their games. Just focus on getting win after win.
Well, he was pretty sorry ...
Meh ...
Biggest over-performers (in actual GD versus non-shot xGD) are Tottenham (+22) and Man. United (+13). Biggest under-performers are Huddersfield (-26) and Fulham (-17). I think everyone else is within 10 or close to it, and many teams are within 5.
Actual GD v xGD has Tottenham (+13), Arsenal (+11), Fulham (-13) and Huddersfield (-11) as the four biggest. All numbers approximate.
I'm ok with it not being given, but he was fouled, I think it almost certainly *is* called anywhere else on the pitch, and Maguire is a ####### center back. He knows or should know the number one rule of stabbing on a ball like that is you absolutely can't do it unless you know you're going to be first to it.
I think Vertonghen's call was pretty soft too, and I think Son's was more a penalty than the one Spurs gave up, though I think Vertonghen did kind of go through the leg of Maddison. Beyond that, Leicester out-xG'ed Liverpool at home a week or two ago and played Man U straight up in the last week or so as well. They are good, and this was a classic match that we needed our elite talent to score goals because we weren't winning midfield. That happened.
It is frustrating to play teams like Wolves and Leicester and get overrun in midfield. I'm not asking to bring in world class guys. But we shouldn't have a worse central midfield than the mid-table teams. I think that Poch probably leaves if they don't open the purse strings for that.
Leicester are one replacement for Vardy away from being a top level team. Easier said than done, of course.
Looks like I may have been overly optimistic about Sarri and Chelsea last month. He sure is a stubborn guy.
ETA: If Poch does leave Spurs and goes to United, he's not likely to be happy with their midfield either.
Spurs need fullbacks and a midfield. Levy has been penny wise and pound foolish.
It's so ####### obvious and sooooooooooo frustrating.
[edit] Oh, and pay Toby and Christian what they want ...
If you want to say it should be a penalty, I would respectfully disagree but could understand that perspective. I wouldn't call it a clear penalty though.
Man. City 94% (93%)
Barcelona 86.5% (85%)
Real Madrid 77.5% (78%)
Juventus 63% (63%)
PSG 61.5% (77%) - ManU resurgence, and PSG injuries. In addition to Neymar being out for both legs, Cavani and Meunier are out for the first leg. Veratti is supposed to be playing though.
Dortmund 55% (50%) - Tottenham injuries.
Porto 50% (53%)
Liverpool 50% (51%) - Liverpool drifted up a few percent for a while, but the shine has come off them just a tad, while Bayern has recovered quite a bit from their subpar start.
Sarri's time at Chelsea is reminding me a lot of AVB's time at Spurs. A lot of stale possession, relying on one player to make magic and win games, and just melting down against the best sides. Not altogether terrible, but scrapping for 4th place the best you can hope for unless it REALLY goes south (and it might and you end up with Tim Sherwood clowning around for 3 months)...
I feel like the only way that the Tottenham wins the league is with significant injuries to Liverpool and City. Even with City, it's hard to see. They are so deep at so many positions. It's hard to imagine Pool and City not bossing midfield vs. Spurs, which basically means any results will be massively against the run of play. And those teams are just way more comfortable in getting 3 points off of weak teams, this years absurd stretch of non-draws not withstanding.
Just for the record, there's virtually no chance this happens, right? 50 million pounds, supposedly, plus United are getting results under OGS. I imagine he just gets a two year deal.
I agree this is obviously crazy, but are they just sort of pricing in that they're getting him with no transfer fee?
I mean, I think they are, but I don't see why they had to go so high anyways. Who else would even come close to this?
I feel like wage structure at clubs does matter some, and it's weird to me that Ramsey, who I rate as probably one of the worst of the Juventus starters next year, is getting paid like double anyone else.
I find this part fascinating. Because I think I agree that nobody else was likely to come close to those wages but at the same time, plenty of teams should be willing to approach that level assuming they wouldn't blush at a €50M+ fee.
Post-Bosman, the clubs have done a remarkable job of keeping wage structures more or less the same regardless of how you were acquired or whether or not you re-upped. This makes zero sense for an individual transaction. Why is Pogba, for example, likely making pretty much close to the same wages had he come on a free?
I do recognize that players that leave on a free seem to make a bit more in wages than they otherwise would, but nowhere near the package it would have taken to acquire the player and pay a transfer fee.
In my mind, most stars should almost always be running out their contracts but few end up doing that.
MCoA made this point on twitter today. Grab that payday when you're 20 or 21, moving to a big team for the first time via a massive transfer, sure. But after that, they should be running them down more.
If true, that's still crazy money for Aaron ####### Ramsey. That said, I don't believe anything when it comes to "reporting" on salaries. The information is nowhere near as transparent as it is in American sports.
It makes me feel gross, but you gotta do what you gotta do.
It's possible he's actually a good manager, right?
Sure. Let's give him a few years and find out.
v PSG (CL)
at Chelsea (FA cup)
v Liverpool (EPL)
at Palace (EPL)
v Southampton (EPL)
at PSG (CL)
at Arsenal (EPL)
v Man. City (EPL)
That's 6 very hard games, one that's decently challenging (away to Palace) and one easy one (Southampton).
But Man U has played 3 good teams:
@ Leiceister: Lost xG 1.75-1.45
@ Tottenham: Lost xG 1.80-0.96
@ Arsenal: Lost xG 1.8-1.2
I mean, all are road games, so they're tough games. Now he's facing PSG without Cavani and Neymar.
Things have gone well, the players seem happy and they're playing more attacking. But I'm decidedly wait and see. I still think they're a pretty solid cut below the top tier of the league.
Solari and Solskaer have turned things around and Real and Man U and I don't see Poch leaving for any other club.
Coughing up for Toby and Christian would be a significant start, but that just seems less and less and less likely and more and more stupid by the day ...
For me, the big issue for United was the loss of Lingard and Martial. Having those 2 in the team forced PSG to play more conservatively in order to avoid fast breaks. In addition, Lingard does a lot of work pressuring the opponents and Martial is the usual out ball. Forced replacements with Mata and Sanchez completely changes the team and the reasons why United have been successful for the past 2 months. Neither is useful on a fast break, neither defends very well, and Sanchez isn't useful for an out ball. That's not to say that either is a bad player -- though I think Sanchez is about done -- just that they don't fit United's current needs (mostly 2 quality midfielders and a right back).
They have a right back (Dalot), but for some reason they won't play him. He's consistently looked better than Young when he has played - when it briefly looked like it was Young that had been sent off last night it gave me a glimmer of hope for the second leg.
I'd say the needs are a centre half, a central midfielder and a right winger. They'd need another centre half regardless, but for all the talk of Lindelof's recent improvement under Solskjaer he's still looked horribly slow, and Mbappe giving him a five yard start for the second goal last night epitomised that. Matic is pretty much done - he's fine against mediocre premier league teams, but he the game bypassed him last night. I like Lingard, but I honestly think he's just a touch below the class required if United want to be winning the league again.
I don't want Sanchez anywhere near the team again. He should definitely be out in the summer, and the spin for the failure of the signing can be conveniently directed at Mourinho. Lukaku and Mata should be the players to come in for Martial and Lingard against Chelsea, and I'd rather see more of Tahith Chong and Angel Gomes than any more of Sanchez.
Can't agree. That was a clear yellow and it was borderline straight red.
The really dumb thing is that there was little hope at that point in the game for much to change in ManU's favor, and it wasn't in an especially critical location on the field. Pogba really needed to be playing more cautiously there considering he was on a yellow.
Rashford was also playing/dropping deeper with Martial there. I agree. It was a very frenetic pressing game the first 30-35 minutes, with neither team looking super comfortable breaking the press. I thought it was even and probably the best build up play was coming from United until the second half.
ETA: Oops, sorry, that was Mike Goodman who said that. See https://statsbomb.com/2018/10/statsbomb-mailbag-real-madrid-declan-rice-penalties-marriage-advice-and-more/
--
For Tottenham, looks like they're lining up in a 5-3-2, with Foyth starting. I'm not loving that, though Poch has earned a lot of the benefit of the doubt.
Looks like Dortmund are starting Pulisic. Reus is out injured and their center backs are also pretty injured IIRC.
Even more impressive when you add in that they were missing Neymar and Cavani.
In the JV game, Ajax and Real are 0-0.
That said, Moura and Son have been dangerous. But Dortmund's front line has been too. Tottenham isn't getting bossed in midfield quite as much as I was worried about.
A two goal difference is what is wanted ... Oops, Nando just made it three!!!
(Edit) Still isn't done, without a late goal.here from.BvB, I heavily figure Spure' chances
The sad news of the day is that Real stole won from Ajax. We saw that happen a few times last year... the xG numbers don't even include the goal that was ruled out.
So, MCoA had the Spurs/BvB game @ 2.0 v 0.4 which is further apart than I would think, but damn if there weren't 15 minutes or so where I was just irrationally giddy ...
https://twitter.com/Caley_graphics/status/1095805933270245378/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1095805933270245378&ref_url=https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2019/2/13/18223712/tottenham-3-0-dortmund-champions-league-goals-match-report-son-vertonghen-llorente-bvb-highlights
Graun
I am shocked The Guardian didn't open this up to comments below the line.
Except of course Arsenal.
The only other upset to speak of was Salzburg losing to Brugge, also on the road. Both Arsenal and Salzburg are still favored to advance.
I enjoyed the flood of "can't even master BATE on Valentine's Day" hacky jokes yesterday!
Ramos got another red in then 90th minute of the Girona game.
By all rights, Ramos should miss the first game of the CL quarters for getting an intentional caution late in the Ajax game to clear his slate of yellows, something he admitted to on social media and which has a specific proscribed punishment (missing an extra game, which would be the first game of the quarterfinals). UEFA better not wimp out.
If everybody on Real Madrid truly had an average day, how did they end up giving up so many quality chances and losing the game? Absent truly bad luck, which should be reflected at least somewhat in the xG totals, if everyone truly had an average day the game should never have been in doubt let alone lost.
1. I think they are in fact pretty good.
2. Frankie de Jong is very very very good. A good striker is in my opinion the kind of player who changes things in a way no other player on the pitch can. That guy who can finish the only chance or two chances that fall to him over 90 minutes can be a very big deal.
3. Real are probably being underrated a bit numerically because of the first half of the season which may or may not result in an accurate assessment of Real Madrid as they are on February 16th.
When you put it all together, it's very difficult for a neutral-field underdog to get much higher than a 15% chance to overcome a 1-2 home loss in a home and home.
Graun
Edit: Ramos is probably the best Real player these days so him missing the home leg could actually matter.
And I have no love for Chelsea but Matic should have been sent off for the second yellow. The ref choked there pure and simple.
If it's enough of a foul it's enough of a foul, regardless of time, place and whether you already booked a player ...
The only way to make it work is to make the punishment significantly less unequally harsh. Basically either change the penalty rule or put up with the way it's called now.
Dortmund is in a tailspin. Sure they probably outplayed Nurnberg, but not by much--they only had 1 xG or so, and Nurnberg is terrible. It's a game they could not drop points in.
I think I'm leaning Wolves vs United ...
My worry is less this game and more the lack of a backup plan. They've struggled when teams man-mark Jorginho, which to be fair is also a reflection of the other players on their team. I think it's pretty naive to go into the Etihad and line up like they did.
Well, somebody has to be there for City to kick the ball around against ...
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main