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Wednesday, January 30, 2019

OT Soccer Thread, v.2019

Looks like the last thread is closed, so onto the new!

Upcoming Matches of Interest
2/3 Madrid Derby
2/4 Manchester City v. Arsenal
2/10 Manchester City v. Chelsea
2/12 Manchester United v. PSG
2/13 Tottenham v. Dortmund
2/19 Liverpool v. Bayern Munich
2/24 Manchester United v. Liverpool
2/28 Chelsea v. Tottenham
3/2 North London Derby, Merseyside Derby, & El Classico
3/5 Dortmund v. Tottenham
3/9 Arsenal v. Manchester United
3/13 Bayern Munich v. Liverpool
3/16 Manchester Derby
3/30 Liverpool v. Tottenham

The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: January 30, 2019 at 07:08 PM | 2068 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: soccer

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   1001. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 16, 2019 at 07:02 PM (#5832627)
Juve flop!
   1002. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 16, 2019 at 07:14 PM (#5832639)
MCOA had the tweet of the Ajax/Juve match with "Ronaldo ran free of Ajax's defenders like they were process servers" imo.

Also lol get ###### Juventus.
   1003. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 16, 2019 at 07:38 PM (#5832670)
You have Barca at 58% against Liverpool? I'd definitely take Liverpool. That's a quite significant advantage.

City is being given close to 50% chance of reaching the final (a tad less), and they would be favorites over Barca. In order for Barca to get to 58% for the final you'd probably need Barca to be over 70% against Spurs/Ajax. I guess that's not impossible. I think you are then saying Liverpool is only 60% against Spurs/Ajax, and around 40% against City. not impossible, but seems still a huge gulf between Barca and Liverpool, which I don't think is justified.

   1004. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 16, 2019 at 08:10 PM (#5832692)
I don't think 58% is that significant of an advantage. 40% underdogs win all the time. But I think there is pretty clear daylight between Barca and Liverpool. If you asked me how many 2-leg series Barca would win against Liverpool out of 10, I would say about 6. Certainly closer to 6 than it is to 5. Maybe it's 56%? Maybe 57%? But that is splitting hairs. Like I said, 58 seems not unreasonable.

I mean looking for some comparables, looks like City were about 59% faves over Spurs before the first game. Liverpool is better than Spurs, but Barca is better than City... so that seems like about the same ballpark to me.
   1005. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 16, 2019 at 08:12 PM (#5832693)
538 has:
Barca 30%
Liverpool 27%
City 23%
Ajax 11%
Tottenham 8%
Porto >1%

City and Tottenham are 50/50 to advance, Ajax is 34% to make the final.
   1006. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 16, 2019 at 08:13 PM (#5832697)
Is Barca better than City? Barca and Liverpool seem about on the same level, with Man City a quarter step ahead to me.

I'd say the most likely outcome of Barcelona and Liverpool playing 10 times are five wins each.
   1007. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 16, 2019 at 08:19 PM (#5832702)
I mean looking for some comparables, looks like City were about 59% faves over Spurs before the first game. Liverpool is better than Spurs, but Barca is better than City... so that seems like about the same ballpark to me.


The betting odds have consistently favored City over Barca since relatively early in the year. That hasn't changed. City is still considered to be the better team.

City was given close to 80% over Tottenham over two legs prior to losing 1-0. They're currently at close to 59% over Spurs in betting odds (maybe 58%). It is easier for a favorite to win over two legs than in a 1-off, so that 80% might be about 70% in a 1-off.
   1008. spivey Posted: April 16, 2019 at 08:21 PM (#5832704)
I think I have Barca and Liverpool about even on team quality, and I think that particular matchup is strongly in Liverpool’s favor. Barca’s team is a bit old/unathletic and soft, especially in the middle of the park. This is nit picking of course, they are no worse than the third best team in the world.

But I could see Liverpool’s gegenpress bull-in-a-China shop shenanigans in midfield put Barca to the sword unless they play pretty cautiously like City now do. Good news is we will very likely see the matchup.
   1009. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 16, 2019 at 08:27 PM (#5832709)
Pre-draw betting odds before the QFs (good read on expected team strength at that time).

City: 28%
Barca: 22%
Juve: 19%
Pool: 15%
United: 7%
Spurs: 6%
Ajax: 4%
Porto: 1%

The take-aways are that bettors thought Liverpool isn't that great, Juve is great, and City is much better than Barca. Nothing has really changed except now Ajax is now considered better than they were (probably about the equal of Spurs) and Juve is out. My personal read is that Juve was a bit overrated, Ajax a bit underrated and Liverpool a bit underrated (and United a bit overrated).

Odds going into the last round:

Liverpool over Porto: 81%
City over Spurs: 80%
Juve over Ajax: 77%
Barca over United: 76%
   1010. spivey Posted: April 16, 2019 at 08:30 PM (#5832711)
Speaking of Tottenham, Winks is not going to play and Lamela/Alli are game time decisions. Tottenham will have less than 35% possession. Poch I don’t think will have much of a choice but to bunker and do long balls.
   1011. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 16, 2019 at 08:35 PM (#5832713)
I still feel like Spurs will pinch a goal tomorrow ... and then City needs 3.

I'm feeling weirdly optimistic ... a decidedly un-Spurs way to feel ...
   1012. spivey Posted: April 16, 2019 at 08:48 PM (#5832717)
I don’t trust city to play like the best team in the world in Europe, because they mostly haven’t. But a lot of their best players didn’t play last game.

I am happy Wanyama hit the ground running. He’s among the best defensive mids in the world when healthy and knows his limitations. I think we will need 90 massive minutes from him and Verts.
   1013. spivey Posted: April 16, 2019 at 09:15 PM (#5832721)
Other thing which could come into play here. I think there is a realistic chance for extra time. Not sure if anyone has done any research on it it’s more of an advantage to have home field 30 extra minutes or have the away goals advantage.
   1014. jmurph Posted: April 17, 2019 at 09:16 AM (#5832782)
I still feel like Spurs will pinch a goal tomorrow ... and then City needs 3.

I'm feeling weirdly optimistic ... a decidedly un-Spurs way to feel ...

As a fan of the other team, I don't feel great. 2-1 either way seems like a perfectly likely outcome to me, and that obviously won't get it done for City.
   1015. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 11:29 AM (#5832824)
Other thing which could come into play here. I think there is a realistic chance for extra time. Not sure if anyone has done any research on it it’s more of an advantage to have home field 30 extra minutes or have the away goals advantage.


I'm not feeling extra time, since there's only one outcome that can produce it, 1-0 City. If Spurs score, the match will be resolved in the regular 90, one way or the other.
   1016. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 12:01 PM (#5832836)
Ruh roh ...

Liverpool talisman Mohamed Salah is ready to move on from Anfield after handing in a transfer request, according to AS.

The report claims Salah is unhappy due to a long-standing issue with manager Jurgen Klopp -- and the club's owners have tried to persuade the Egypt international to change his mind, but said they would facilitate his exit, should he still feel the same way in the summer.
   1017. jmurph Posted: April 17, 2019 at 12:12 PM (#5832843)
It seems roughly impossible to believe that Salah has officially requested a transfer, right now.
   1018. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 17, 2019 at 01:22 PM (#5832869)
Yeah, that seems entirely uncredible.

edit: And the only reporting of this is coming from someone who just so happens to be close to Real Madrid.
   1019. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 02:08 PM (#5832895)
Actually, I hope it's not true, I quite like Salah (ever since I saw the documentary We Must Go about Bob Bradley's tenure as coach of the Egyptian national team, which everyone should check out if they haven't seen it already) and would be sad if he and Klopp didn't get along and he was demanding to leave.
   1020. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 02:10 PM (#5832899)
Teams:

Manchester City (4-1-2-3) Ederson; Walker, Kompany, Laporte, Mendy; Gundogan; De Bruyne, D Silva; B Silva, Aguero, Sterling.
Substitutes: Muric, Stones, Sane, Fernandinho, Mahrez, Otamendi, Jesus.

Tottenham Hotspur (4-D-2) Lloris; Trippier, Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Rose; Wanyama; Sissoko, Eriksen; Alli; Lucas Moura, Son.
Substitutes: Gazzaniga, Sanchez, Lamela, Llorente, Foyth, Davies, Skipp.


Dele plays and Moura and Son are up top. I predict they will cause City's back line trouble today.
   1021. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:04 PM (#5832931)
Another pet peeve: Announcers who don't know what a "blue moon" is.
   1022. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:06 PM (#5832933)
I was really hoping it would take a little longer than that.
   1023. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:08 PM (#5832935)
BUT I WASN'T EXPECTING A QUICK REPLY
   1024. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:08 PM (#5832937)
Great finish, but that was just too easy.
   1025. aberg Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:09 PM (#5832938)
Good god.
   1026. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:09 PM (#5832939)
GAME ON!
   1027. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:09 PM (#5832940)
And it appears my stream is 30 seconds behind or so, heh.
   1028. I am going to be Frank Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:10 PM (#5832941)
Is anyone else annoyed that City have their sky blue kits and Spurs have their dark blue/green kits on?
   1029. I am going to be Frank Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:10 PM (#5832942)
Wow! Spurs may be better without Kane. Ok probably not, but today maybe?!?
   1030. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:10 PM (#5832943)
Well no OT tonight then.
   1031. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:11 PM (#5832944)
Laporte is having a disaster! I'll take it!
   1032. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:11 PM (#5832945)
I do love Son. Son of gun.
   1033. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:12 PM (#5832946)
And no matter what, I will stand by my take from earlier, that City is not better than Barca.
   1034. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:12 PM (#5832947)
What is happening here? Spurs just left Silva in an absurd amount of space for no reason!
   1035. aberg Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:13 PM (#5832948)
wtf is happening
   1036. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:13 PM (#5832949)
What the #### is going on?
   1037. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:13 PM (#5832950)
This is insanity though.
   1038. I am going to be Frank Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:13 PM (#5832951)
Damn Bernado had so much space and time.
   1039. jmurph Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:13 PM (#5832952)
Wow! Spurs may be better without Kane. Ok probably not, but today maybe?!?

I had a post swallowed earlier about this. Son is so much scarier for me as a fan of the other team. Kane is obviously a magical finisher but Son just seems to do a lot more.

Anyway, glad I can't watch this today, looks like I'm missing nothing good!
   1040. I am going to be Frank Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:15 PM (#5832954)
So if City don't advance, does Pep spend 80M or 100M on a new CB?
   1041. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:16 PM (#5832955)
I am afraid to go to the kitchen to get a beer. And I really need one.
   1042. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:16 PM (#5832956)
Man, went down to make lunch ... and it's 2-2???

O.o?

Madness!

A little defense from Spurs would be nice here, dammit.

   1043. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:17 PM (#5832958)
So if City don't advance, does Pep spend 80M or 100M on a new CB?


If they're smart, they'll pick up Toby for 25M.

Man, losing him this summer is going to piss me off royally.
   1044. Jose Needs an Absurd Ukulele Concert Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:18 PM (#5832959)
I am afraid to go to the kitchen to get a beer. And I really need one.


I'd go right to the hard liquor.
   1045. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:22 PM (#5832962)
That did not look like a foul by Wanyama before that 3rd goal.
   1046. aberg Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:26 PM (#5832966)
If they're smart, they'll pick up Toby for 25M.


I recently learned that he's 30 already. I just assumed that he was in his mid-20s because his name is Toby.
   1047. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:34 PM (#5832970)
Shockingly, with Trippier at RB, Spurs can't defend at all. It doesn't help that Rose and Wanyama have also been terrible. Spurs will need to score again.
   1048. The Marksist Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:35 PM (#5832972)
Meanwhile it's a good thing none of my streams are working so I couldn't watch Liverpool give up 13 shots in 30 minutes because I might be dead. And now that they snagged a goal entirely against the run of play, I'm feeling a little better.
   1049. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:39 PM (#5832975)
Never thought I'd say it, but Sissoko going off may spell Spurs' doom ...
   1050. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:39 PM (#5832976)
Oh no. Sissoko struggling. The only midfielder on Tottenham's bench is Oliver Skipp.
   1051. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:40 PM (#5832977)
I know it's a function of injuries, but wow is Tottenham's bench bad today. 4 defenders, Skipp, Llorente, and Gazzaniga.
   1052. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:41 PM (#5832980)
Interesting. Poch bringing on Llorente rather than Skipp. I guess Alli will drop back but he's barely recovered from injury himself.
   1053. I am going to be Frank Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:46 PM (#5832984)
I can't believe he's bringing on Llorente. Is Llorente even capable of holding up the ball? I figure you have to bring on a midfielder or defender.
   1054. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:47 PM (#5832985)
Well, Dele's not really recovered, his hand's still broken, he's just playing with the cast on (and I imagine he will for the rest of the season).

But losing Sissoko (likely for the season), could prove fatal not only in this tie, but in the race for Top 4.
   1055. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:47 PM (#5832986)
This is going to be a ridiculous second half.

Meanwhile, Liverpool have to be like 99% to advance at this point since Porto would need four unanswered goals.
   1056. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:48 PM (#5832987)
Is Llorente even capable of holding up the ball? I figure you have to bring on a midfielder or defender.

The only midfielder on the bench is Skipp, who hasn't been very good against much lesser opposition than City. I could have seen bringing in a defender and switching to 3 at the back.
   1057. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:49 PM (#5832990)
I know it's a function of injuries


Well, that and Daniel Levy's complete failure of a year's worth of transfer policy.
   1058. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:50 PM (#5832991)
So this game started...very unusually, but it's settled down into what I expected before the start. Tottenham can barely escape their own half and need to soak up pressure. Which doesn't exactly invite confidence, given our current defense.
   1059. I am going to be Frank Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:50 PM (#5832992)
I saw Skipp warming up - bringing a young player like that is super risky.
   1060. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:53 PM (#5832993)
I saw Skipp warming up - bringing a young player like that is super risky.


Let's just say that Huddersfield suddenly came alive in attack when Skipp came on for Sissoko at the weekend ...

I can agree with #1056, bringing on another CB and going back 3, especially given Trippier's having a torrid time today, made more sense ...
   1061. jmurph Posted: April 17, 2019 at 03:57 PM (#5832996)
2-1 either way seems like a perfectly likely outcome to me

What kind of dummy posted this earlier?

Yeah, I'm thinking it's going to take 5 for City. I can't decide if fatigue will mean more action in the 2nd or less. Whoever is doping most effectively, I guess.
   1062. spivey Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:00 PM (#5832998)
I think Poch thought there was too much time to bunker and wants Moura/Son wider.

I’d bring Sanchez on around the 60th minute, agree that Trippier has been awful.
   1063. spivey Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:01 PM (#5833000)
Man City are ####### terrified of Son, AND THEY SHOULD BE
   1064. jmurph Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:03 PM (#5833001)
Ha, MCoA has the 1st half xG at 0.7 to 0.4 for City.
   1065. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:04 PM (#5833002)
Ha, MCoA has the 1st half xG at 0.7 to 0.4 for City.

Makes sense. Lots of good finishes, Silva's goal required a deflection, Son's first goal probably should have been saved by Ederson.
   1066. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:05 PM (#5833004)
45 minutes for glory ... to do is to dare ... CYOS!!!
   1067. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:07 PM (#5833005)
Oh good even if Spurs somehow pull this through Son misses the next match.
   1068. spivey Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:10 PM (#5833006)
To say Spurs look nervy is an understatement.
   1069. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:10 PM (#5833007)
At this rate this half has started, I don't think that will be a problem ...

[edit] City is bloody well queuing up now ...
   1070. jmurph Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:12 PM (#5833010)
So the game saturday morning is going to be a 0-0 draw, right?
   1071. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:12 PM (#5833011)
No idea how City have not scored yet this half.
   1072. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:15 PM (#5833014)
Somehow we had Son defending Aguero in the box for a moment there.
   1073. spivey Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:18 PM (#5833015)
Needed to capitalize there
   1074. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:18 PM (#5833016)
Son was almost in again but the touch was poor. Llorente almost gets a good header. Eriksen has a good shooting opportunity. Things are momentarily looking okay...and, Aguero scores.
   1075. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:18 PM (#5833018)
No idea how City have not scored yet this half.


They have now ...

   1076. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:19 PM (#5833021)
It's amazing how often Aguero scores at the near post like that.
   1077. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:22 PM (#5833023)
*sigh*
   1078. I am going to be Frank Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:22 PM (#5833024)
Spurs have no one else they can put on to help them score another goal.
   1079. jmurph Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:23 PM (#5833025)
De Bruyne looks absolutely cooked.
   1080. aberg Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:24 PM (#5833026)
De Bruyne looks absolutely cooked.


FWIW, he played great against Palace over the weekend. Does that mean he isn't fit to play 2 matches a week? Or that the step up in quality is too much for him right now? That, I don't know.
   1081. spivey Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:25 PM (#5833027)
Alli has been so bad giving the ball away
   1082. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:26 PM (#5833028)
Alli has been so bad giving the ball away

The entire team other than Lloris, Vertonghen, Alderweireld, and Son have been poor.
   1083. jmurph Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:29 PM (#5833030)
FWIW, he played great against Palace over the weekend. Does that mean he isn't fit to play 2 matches a week?

Seems like he hasn't been fully fit in at least a year. But nearly fully fit KDB is still a good thing.
   1084. jmurph Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:29 PM (#5833031)
I still feel very strongly that City will need a 5th to hold on.
   1085. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5833034)
My oh, my, oh my.

Uh, oh, looks like it hit the arm first ...

Calling an overturned goal here.

Sigh.
   1086. I am going to be Frank Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5833035)
4-3 with at least 15 minutes left.
   1087. jmurph Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5833036)
Yeah, because of that.
   1088. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:33 PM (#5833037)
LOLOLOL. This game is just stupid.
   1089. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:33 PM (#5833038)
Llorente scores off his hip!
   1090. I am going to be Frank Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:33 PM (#5833040)
looks good Biff is right.
   1091. jmurph Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:34 PM (#5833041)
Did it even touch Llorente? Looks like an OG to me.
   1092. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:35 PM (#5833042)
He has his arm pressed against his body. It does hit his elbow, but there is just no way that should be an intentional handball.
   1093. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:35 PM (#5833043)
Glad to be wrong.

COYS!!!
   1094. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:35 PM (#5833044)
Ref indicates it is indeed off the hip.

Even if it glanced Llorente's elbow, isn't it good anyway? Arm at the side and clearly unintentional. We've seen those goals given many times before.
   1095. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:36 PM (#5833047)
Time to start drinking heavily.
   1096. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:37 PM (#5833048)
That had to be a goal. Did the fact that it touched his arm have anything to do with what happened on the play? Seemingly not.
   1097. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:40 PM (#5833051)
Hmmm ... Ben Davies into a back three ... or midfield?
   1098. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:41 PM (#5833052)
Apparently that is still fine this year, but starting next year anything off the arm leading to a goal is handball, intentional or not.
   1099. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:41 PM (#5833053)
Time to start drinking heavily.

You weren't already?
   1100. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 17, 2019 at 04:42 PM (#5833054)
Flippity
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