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Sunday, November 13, 2022

OT - World Cup Thread

Group A - Sunday/Monday/Friday/Tuesday
Z-Qatar 0-0-3 -6
Z-Ecuador 1-1-1 +1
Y-Senegal 2-0-1 1
X-Netherlands
2-1-0 +4

Group B - Monday/Friday/Tuesday
X-England 2-1-0 +7
Z-Iran 1-0-2 -3
Y-UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!!!!! (All games 2PM) 1-2-0 +1
Z-Wales 0-1-2 -5

Group C - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday
X-Argentina 2-0-1 +3
Z-Saudi Arabia 1-1-1-2
Z-Mexico 1-1-1 -1
Y-Poland 1-2-0 0

Group D - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday
X-France 2-0-1 +3
Y-Australia 2-0-1 -1
Z-Denmark 0-1-2 -2
Z-Tunisia 1-1-1 0

Group E - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday
Spain 1-1-0 +7
Costa Rica 1-0-1 -6
Germany 0-0-2 -1
Japan
1-0-1 0

Group F - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday
Belgium 1-1-0 -1
Z-Canada 0-0-2 -4
Morocco 1-1-0 +2
Croatia 1-1-0 +3

Group G - Thursday/Monday/Friday
Y-Brazil 2-0-0+3
Serbia 0-1-1 -2
Switzerland 1-0-1 0
Cameroon 0-1-1 -1

Group H - Thursday/Monday/Friday
Y-Portugal 2-0-0 +3
Ghana 1-0-1 0
Uruguay 0-1-1 -2
South Korea 0-1-1 -1


X won group
Y advanced
Z eliminated

Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 13, 2022 at 06:35 PM | 391 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   1. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 13, 2022 at 06:51 PM (#6105411)
Italicized teams are my picks to advance so you can all mock me both pro-actively and then reactively.
   2. Textbook Editor Posted: November 13, 2022 at 09:25 PM (#6105423)
Want to throw down the mockable marker here: I think Iran has a puncher's chance of finishing second in the group. England's a bit of a mess and many players are reporting knackered, USA is inexperienced on this stage, and Wales has its own issues (and Bale may not be anywhere near fit to play even 60 minutes a game x 3 games in 8 days).

This might be the year we see a Greece in 2004 Euros scenario at the WC--someone no one ever expected winning it all. It's been such a compressed club schedule that most top players are going to show up exhausted, and that may open the door for complete mayhem.
   3. John Reynard Posted: November 14, 2022 at 06:54 AM (#6105434)
Italicized teams are my picks to advance so you can all mock me both pro-actively and then reactively.


I'd say you're not wildly off my own guesses.

I'd have Mexico rather than Poland in Group C, Spain rather than Japan in group E, and Portugal rather than South Korea in group H. But, that isn't so different.
   4. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 14, 2022 at 08:31 AM (#6105441)
I think TE is spot on all the way through. Iran are capable of getting out of the group. I mentioned to a friend this weekend that I think the US could go 3-0, 0-3 or anywhere in between. The group is really up for grabs.

As for the rest of the tournament, yeah I think weird #### happening is a distinct possibility. US94 and Asia02 both had some pretty strange results and I won't be remotely surprised if the same is true here. The timing of the tournament, the weather, even the atmosphere of the presumably sober crowds. It's very up in the air. I'm disgusted that it's in Qatar but I'm excited for the tournament.
   5. jmurph Posted: November 14, 2022 at 09:18 AM (#6105444)
I mentioned to a friend this weekend that I think the US could go 3-0, 0-3 or anywhere in between. The group is really up for grabs.

100%, and that goes for every team in the group (it would obviously be a surprise if England went 0-3, but I don't think they're in great shape at the moment).
   6. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 14, 2022 at 11:08 AM (#6105459)
The italicized teams are close to what betting odds expects, and post #3 is even closer. (Of course not picking either Spain and Portugal is clearly done with the awareness that those teams would be favored by betting odds.) There are still quite a few very tight races though.

edit: as far as mayhem goes, I tend to think there should be more uncertainty this year, so favorites should be a little less favored than normal. I don't know that this is showing up in the betting odds though.
   7. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 14, 2022 at 12:05 PM (#6105462)
             qualify   winner      elo     fifa        
Group A
netherlands      87      66        2040    1695
senegal          49      16        1687    1584
ecuador          46      13        1833    1464
qatar            18       5        1680    1440

Group B
england          88      69        1920    1728
usa              47      14        1798    1627
wales            44      13        1790    1570
iran             21       4        1817    1565

Group C
argentina        90      69        2141    1770
mexico           51      15        1821    1645
poland           49      14        1809    1549
saudi arabia     10       2        1640    1438

Group D
france           90      66        2005    1760
denmark          71      26        1971    1667
tunisia          20       4        1687    1508
australia        19       4        1719    1489

Group E
spain            87      49        2045    1715
germany          85      44        1960    1650
japan            21       6        1798    1560
costa rica        7       1        1743    1504

Group F
belgium          84      58        2025    1817
croatia          65      28        1922    1646
morocco          29       8        1753    1564
canada           22       6        1765    1475

Group G
brazil           90      70        2169    1841
switzerland      49      14        1929    1636
serbia           43      12        1892    1564
cameroon         18       4        1609    1471

Group H
portugal         83      56        2004    1677
uruguay          68      32        1936    1639
south korea      25       6        1786    1530
ghana            24       6        1540    1393

Iran and Ecuador are both hated by betting odds but have performed very well recently.

edit: or maybe it's that the media has fallen in love a bit with Senegal. With Mane hurt that should put even more of a damper on them, but it hasn't really.
   8. Swedish Chef Posted: November 14, 2022 at 12:49 PM (#6105468)
I feel pretty good about Sweden failing to qualify to this WC, no need to get into the moral quicksand. Sorry, Zlatan.
   9. Swedish Chef Posted: November 14, 2022 at 12:52 PM (#6105469)
Prediction: Brazil wins. Let's say they beat France in the final.
   10. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 14, 2022 at 04:31 PM (#6105507)
Rooting interests:

1. USA!
2. England
3. Netherlands
4. Random chaos

Last. As Italy is not in this tournament, I don't really have a team I loathe in this tourney. Though I'm sure I will by the time the finals come around. Probably Portugal, given the deeply annoying presence of you-know-who.

Predictions: I make all my soccer predictions using CRUYFF, a system by which I very carefully reach up my butt and pull things out of it.

1. Japan or Korea repeats the 2002 miracle, and an Asian team makes the semifinals.
2. Messi, in what is likely to be his last World Cup, finally goes bonkers and dominates the tournament in the way we have been waiting for him to do for years.
2A. As a result, Argentina makes the final again.
3. England finishes second in its group, leading to a histrionic freakout from the UK press. Then they win two matches in the knockouts, which does not silence the press at all.
4. France repeats as champs.
   11. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 14, 2022 at 07:20 PM (#6105523)
That means you have a final four of France, Argentina, England, and an Asian team. Fun!

Betting odds for tournament winner:
brazil        19.5

argentina     15
france        12

spain          9.5
england        9.5
germany        7.5
netherlands    6.5
portugal       5.5
belgium        5

denmark        2.5
uruguay        1.5
croatia        1.5
switzerland    0.5
serbia         0.5
senegal        0.5

mexico         0.3
poland         0.3
usa            0.25
ecuador        0.25
wales          0.2
morocco        0.2
japan          0.2
south korea    0.2
cameroon       0.2
canada         0.15
ghana          0.15
qatar          0.15
australia      0.1
iran           0.1
tunisia        0.1
saudia arabia  0.05
costa rica     0.05
   12. Howie Menckel Posted: November 14, 2022 at 07:54 PM (#6105528)
perhaps more 'accessible' World Cup odds:

Brazil 4 to 1
France 6-1
Argentina 6.5-1
England 7-1
Spain 8-1
Germany 10-1
Belgium 12-1
Netherlands 12-1
Portugal 12-1

everyone else is at least 28-1, including 100-1 shots U.S., Mexico, Poland, Serbia, and Wales

Saudi Arabia, Costa Rica, and Iran are 500-1
   13. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 14, 2022 at 08:08 PM (#6105530)
As Italy is not in this tournament, I don't really have a team I loathe in this tourney.


I'm sure both Croatia and Serbia players will manage to throws themselves wildly upon the ground each time a defender comes within a metre of them, then gesticulate wildly at the ref for the non-call. This will occur at least 15 times in every game they play. They are the least enjoyable of national teams every tournament.
   14. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 14, 2022 at 08:11 PM (#6105531)
I actually understand the other ones better, I think.
   15. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 14, 2022 at 08:13 PM (#6105532)
That means you have a final four of France, Argentina, England, and an Asian team. Fun!


It also means that one of the two doesn't win its group, given the draw. Which seems a touch unlikely. But, like I said -- I'm pulling this stuff out of my butt.
   16. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 14, 2022 at 08:21 PM (#6105533)
I don't think many of us are actually betting here. For myself I'm just interested in what percentage the betting markets, as a whole (using aggregator sites like oddschecker), are effectively giving to each team, adjusted for the vig. Since the numbers in my posts are all percentages that add up to 100% they should be pretty intuitive.

edit: I used to label all the tables with "percent chance" or something similar, but it feels like we have about 10 people following these threads and most of them are probably all too familiar with these odds posts already.
   17. Textbook Editor Posted: November 14, 2022 at 10:05 PM (#6105552)
If there was a way to short Brazil as title winners, I would do that. Alas, I don't think betting markets work that way.

Is there a 2004 Greece team in this mix? I'm not sure any of the top 9 teams listed in #11 would qualify as "impregnable defensively," right? So I wonder if someone could park the bus, nick some counter goals, win a lot of 1-0s and PKs and find themselves in a final. With the state of the top players coming in, I think chaos is a real possibility.

Of course, no good defensive teams might mean a lot of 5-4s and 6-3s, which would also be fun.
   18. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 14, 2022 at 10:09 PM (#6105553)
If there was a way to short Brazil as title winners, I would do that. Alas, I don't think betting markets work that way.

On peer-to-peer trading sites like Betfair you can do this. For something like shorting Brazil to win the whole tourney the spread is not bad at all. This link shows you can get 5.2 (european odds) to bet against brazil, which is the equivalent of 80.8% that Brazil doesn't win. (They also might charge fees.) For these sites you are "trading" against another person, so can also put up a line (right now) at 5.1 (80.4%) and hope someone trades with you.
   19. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: November 15, 2022 at 07:21 AM (#6105590)
Is there a 2004 Greece team in this mix? I'm not sure any of the top 9 teams listed in #11 would qualify as "impregnable defensively," right? So I wonder if someone could park the bus, nick some counter goals, win a lot of 1-0s and PKs and find themselves in a final. With the state of the top players coming in, I think chaos is a real possibility.

Not sure I would call them defensively impregnable, but if I had to pick a complete dark horse team, I would pick Switzerland. They do rarely concede more than 1, max 2 goals though. They won their group ahead of Italy, with 2 draws against them. They beat France on penalties, then lost on penalties to Spain last Euros. So I would expect them to be in every game they are in, even if not necessarily favoured. And they are clearly not afraid of any of the big boys.
   20. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 15, 2022 at 08:27 AM (#6105593)
I've got a theory that in these kinds of tournaments teams in Group A have a slight advantage as they get a bit more rest (Greece 04 and Denmark 92 were both Group A teams for example). Senegal are in Group A and they are legitimately a good side though if Mane is hurt that's a tough hurdle to overcome.
   21. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: November 15, 2022 at 08:44 AM (#6105598)
My alternative strategy would be to pick a team that is likely to be well conditioned to the weather in Qatar. So Senegal likely would be a good pick for that as well.
   22. Textbook Editor Posted: November 15, 2022 at 09:25 AM (#6105604)
It would be amazing if Senegal won the WC. Like, perhaps the sports upset of all time? It would have to be in the conversation.

Thanks for the info in #18 & #19. I had sort of forgotten about Switzerland; that's a good tap for a dark horse.
   23. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 15, 2022 at 05:00 PM (#6105671)
538 weighs in on the group of death. It's... not good. They've ranked groups by average ELO to determine group of death status, and find that Spain/Germany/Japan/CostaRica is one of the 15 most "group of deathlike" in any world cup ever. That's laughable.

I know group of death is subjective, but it would have to contain at least three teams that are considered above average for the tournament, such that such a team has a decent chance of being eliminated at the group stage. (Otherwise, what's the point...?) While not a requirement necessarily, it also helps a lot if the 4th team in the group is competitive. Group E has arguably the worst team in the whole tournament and another one that is clearly below average.

On the other hand, they have identified what probably is the group of death here, that being Group G. Serbia is the best expected third-placed team in the tournament. Cameroon is decent for a 4th-placed team, and Brazil is the favorite in the whole tournament.

They have also noted correctly that the groups are more well balanced than they usually are for a WC.
   24. Howie Menckel Posted: November 15, 2022 at 07:06 PM (#6105694)
On peer-to-peer trading sites like Betfair you can do this.

don't think this is legal anywhere in the U.S.

New Jersey tried "exchange wagering" for horse racing a couple of years ago, and one of the features was (as suggested above) an opportunity to offer the marketplace a number on a horse NOT winning. but with no other states/tracks involved and the relatively small appetite that Americans have on gambling in general, it kind of just faded away.

Australian-based PointsBet is live legally in a number of U.S. states, and they tend to welcome any sort of bet at all. If you want to bet that Brazil not only doesn't win it all, but gets knocked out in the group stage and scores no more than 1 goal in 3 games, they'll presumably give you some hefty odds for that one.

I checked DraftKings and see:
- game lines (win, lose, or draw options)
- single-game parlays such as Argentina beats Saudi Arabia + game has 3 or more goals + Messi scores a goal. that's 100 to win 125 if all 3 legs come true
- goal scorer props like Valencia scores the first goal in Ecuador vs Qatar, 100 to win 450
- game props like Ecuador and Qatar both score, 105 to win 100
- corner kicks, like Over 8.5 of them in the England-Iran match, 120 to win 100

and - wow, so many more that I've given up.
   25. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 15, 2022 at 07:12 PM (#6105697)
don't think this is legal anywhere in the U.S.

Maybe not. I made a good living doing only this for three/four years on a now defunct site, but it was before the UIGEA (2006)
   26. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 15, 2022 at 07:34 PM (#6105702)
My alternative strategy would be to pick a team that is likely to be well conditioned to the weather in Qatar. So Senegal likely would be a good pick for that as well.


Weather reports are calling for temps in the near future to be in the mid-high 80s. Hot, but not anything that remarkable for anybody outside of maybe the Nordic countries. The average high in Doha in December is 76, which is actually quite pleasant, though I always preferred low 60s for my outdoor athletics.
   27. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 15, 2022 at 07:38 PM (#6105705)
I'm not sure any of the top 9 teams listed in #11 would qualify as "impregnable defensively," right?

Netherlands have a very good defense. Well, at least on the theory that Van Dijk's defensive troubles for Liverpool this season are because he was holding himself back for the World Cup.
   28. Pirate Joe Posted: November 15, 2022 at 08:44 PM (#6105710)
They have also noted correctly that the groups are more well balanced than they usually are for a WC.


That is because they seeded all the pots by FIFA ranking, rather than put the teams from the same confederation all into the same pot.

As an example, in 2014 the US (FIFA ranked 13) was in the same pot with Australia (57) and Iran (49). Chile (12) was in the same pot as Cameroon (59) and Nigeria (33). So you could have possibly ended up with Spain (1), Chile (12), the US (11) and the Netherlands (8) in the same group. Nothing even remotely close to that could have happened with the current draw procedure.

   29. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 15, 2022 at 10:31 PM (#6105723)
Right I had forgotten. It is striking as this WC has probably the most well balanced groups of any tournament ever except for 1978, at least measured by 538's ELO method once you adjust for number of groups (more groups being more chance for imbalance between best/worst group).
   30. The Marksist Posted: November 16, 2022 at 09:40 AM (#6105750)
Anyone know if there's a way to add the "soccer" tag to this thread?
   31. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 16, 2022 at 09:45 AM (#6105751)
I think Jose might be able to do it, since he originated it.
   32. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 16, 2022 at 04:42 PM (#6105815)
I thought the World Cup heads around here might be interested in this:

The Rest Is History, one of my favorite podcasts, recently did a 3-episode series on World Cup history. The third episode has England legend Gary Lineker, talking about his friendship with Diego Maradona, corruption at the notorious Zurich meeting in 2010, and how winning the Golden Boot in 1986 changed his life.

About the show: The Rest Is History is hosted by Dominic Sandbrook and Tom Holland (not the actor), a couple of what you'd call "public historians" in the UK. They're funny, they're friendly, they're irrepressibly English and perfectly pleased to be so. The show is a generalist sort of thing, so they've covered everything from Assyria to Watergate, usually in hour-long episodes that come out twice a week like clockwork.
   33. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 16, 2022 at 07:28 PM (#6105849)
30. The Marksist Posted: November 16, 2022 at 09:40 AM (#6105750)
Anyone know if there's a way to add the "soccer" tag to this thread?

Edit |Close
31. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 16, 2022 at 09:45 AM (#6105751)
I think Jose might be able to do it, since he originated it.


Done. Sorry about that.
   34. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: November 17, 2022 at 09:14 AM (#6105903)
I guess we know why Ivan Toney didn't make the England squad.
   35. manchestermets Posted: November 17, 2022 at 10:00 AM (#6105908)
don't think this is legal anywhere in the U.S.


While this may well be true, is there any significant chance that someone doing it in the US would get in trouble for it?
   36. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 17, 2022 at 10:44 AM (#6105911)
I guess we know why Ivan Toney didn't make the England squad.


Do we know if Southgate was aware of the allegations?
   37. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 17, 2022 at 10:50 AM (#6105912)
   38. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 17, 2022 at 02:27 PM (#6105940)
Prior to my workout, I weighed in at 80.9 kg (178.3 pounds), but after just 45 minutes of running, I had dropped down to 80.4 kg (177.2).

This is kid stuff. It's not uncommon for me to come back from a long run outside 8 or so pounds lighter than I started, and that includes drinking a fair amount of water. I weight less than this guy too.

The loss of electrolytes is probably also overstated here. Professional half marathoners don't usually eat or drink anything and burn more calories than a soccer player would in a match. Some full marathoners don't take in any calories or even drink anything either (but most do), and they burn way more calories and electolytes than a soccer player would in a game.

Potentially it's more the dilution of electrolytes by sweating a lot out and replacing with plain water that is a bigger consideration. Probably the most important point though is overall training and fitness, and preparation prior to game day. Just trying to handle hydration and electrolyte issues on the day of competition is a very poor substitute.
   39. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 17, 2022 at 04:02 PM (#6105967)
I don't know about 8 lbs, but the day I ran my second marathon (when I wasn't lifting weights anymore, so I was at my lightest) I weighed in at 160 when I got up and 156 when I got home.

(Let's not talk about what I weigh now.)
   40. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 17, 2022 at 05:17 PM (#6105973)
I think I'm a little above normal on the water loss point (on the Patrick Ewing side of things...). I've actually had people say in all seriousness and surprise to me "oh, I didn't know it was raining today" after a hard run.

I have cramped but never during a workout. For me it's always later in the day before my body has fully recovered, usually when making an unusual motion with my legs and in particular my littler toes (toe cramps).
   41. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 17, 2022 at 08:04 PM (#6105983)
That sounds like a friend of mine from college. We played intramural basketball together -- him in the post, me on the perimeter. We used to call him "Slippery Pete" because he'd get so sweaty playing skins in shirts-and-skins that guys would slide off his back.
   42. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 18, 2022 at 10:42 AM (#6106053)
Potentially it's more the dilution of electrolytes by sweating a lot out and replacing with plain water that is a bigger consideration.


Does Qatar not allow gatorade?
   43. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 18, 2022 at 11:45 AM (#6106056)
I know it's probably a joke, but the actual evidence on sports drinks such as Gatorade in preventing cramps is very mixed, especially since they're usually too dilute to be much better than water.
   44. Mefisto Posted: November 18, 2022 at 01:44 PM (#6106075)
Gatorade is more sugar than electrolytes.
   45. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 19, 2022 at 01:14 AM (#6106143)
Betting odds with 538 added:
                 betting              538
             qualify   winner   qualify  winner      elo     fifa        
Group A
netherlands      87      66        79      53        2040    1695
senegal          49      16        51      21        1687    1584
ecuador          46      13        48      19        1833    1464
qatar            18       5        22       7        1680    1440

Group B
england          88      69        80      55        1920    1728
usa              47      14        53      22        1798    1627
wales            44      13        32      11        1790    1570
iran             21       4        34      12        1817    1565

Group C
argentina        90      69        84      60        2141    1770
mexico           51      15        54      21        1821    1645
poland           49      14        38      13        1809    1549
saudi arabia     10       2        24       7        1640    1438

Group D
france           90      66        83      55        2005    1760
denmark          71      26        65      29        1971    1667
tunisia          20       4        31      10        1687    1508
australia        19       4        22       6        1719    1489

Group E
spain            87      49        81      47        2045    1715
germany          85      44        76      40        1960    1650
japan            21       6        34      11        1798    1560
costa rica        7       1         8       2        1743    1504

Group F
belgium          84      58        62      36        2025    1817
croatia          65      28        54      28        1922    1646
morocco          29       8        46      21        1753    1564
canada           22       6        37      15        1765    1475

Group G
brazil           90      70        91      72        2169    1841
switzerland      49      14        48      13        1929    1636
serbia           43      12        41      11        1892    1564
cameroon         18       4        20       4        1609    1471

Group H
portugal         83      56        81      53        2004    1677
uruguay          68      32        65      30        1936    1639
south korea      25       6        36      12        1786    1530
ghana            24       6        18       5        1540    1393

   46. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 19, 2022 at 01:20 AM (#6106145)
538 pretty much hates Europe right across the board, with the minor exception of Group G and maybe Group H. 538 is neutral on South America, but loves the rest of the world. This is a lot like the same divide we see in club soccer, where betting odds likes the favorites a lot better.

538 loves the USA vis a vis Wales. Group G is shockingly identical to betting odds.
   47. I am going to be Frank Posted: November 19, 2022 at 07:37 AM (#6106146)
I'm really ambivalent about the World Cup but will watch anyway. The head of FIFA is definitely not setting my mind at ease.

I may make some small bets. I really like Portugal but Ronaldo drama and his age give me some pause. I'm guessing there isn't any value in betting Brazil, Argentina or France.
   48. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 19, 2022 at 08:25 AM (#6106147)
world cup winner: betting odds & 538

              odds         538

brazil        19.5         22

argentina     15            8
france        12            9

spain          9.5         11
england        9.5          7
germany        7.5          7
netherlands    6.5          6
portugal       5.5          8
belgium        5            3

denmark        2.5          3
uruguay        1.5          3
croatia        1.5          2
switzerland    0.5          1
serbia         0.5          1
senegal        0.5          1

mexico         0.3          1
poland         0.3          0.5
usa            0.25         1
ecuador        0.25         1
wales          0.2          0.4
morocco        0.2          1
japan          0.2          0.7
south korea    0.2          0.4
cameroon       0.2          0.2
canada         0.15         0.4
ghana          0.15         0.1
qatar          0.15         0.15
australia      0.1          0.15
iran           0.1          0.4
tunisia        0.1          0.4
saudia arabia  0.05         0.15
costa rica     0.05         0.05
   49. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 19, 2022 at 08:34 AM (#6106149)
Interestingly, betting odds and 538 pretty much agree on overall winner by the top 2 conferences, with no betting odds bias towards Europe v South America, like there was at the group stage. Europe is being given 61% to win by betting odds, and 59% by 538. South America is 36% by betting odds, and 34% by 538.

They diverge on the rest of the conferences, unsurprisingly. 3% by betting odds and 7% by 538.
   50. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 19, 2022 at 08:42 AM (#6106150)
One other interesting point. 538 thinks Group F is very well balanced while betting odds thinks it is nothing special. 538 loves Canada and Morocco. 538 rates Canada as by far the best 4th placed team in any group, and rates Morocco as tied for best 3rd place team in any group, with Serbia. Croatia is considered an average second placed team, and Belgium is considered by far the worst 1st placed team.

If 538 is even half right it could be a very entertaining group. And I will also enjoy rooting for Canada.
   51. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 19, 2022 at 05:54 PM (#6106192)
Karim Benzema out of the World Cup due to a thigh injury.
   52. Howie Menckel Posted: November 20, 2022 at 12:12 AM (#6106216)
ok, I have chosen the Dutch at 12-1.

easiest draw in the field, from what I can see, and they are pretty good.

not sure they can get through the main draw without winning a PK round, but am saying there's a chance.

but I could be wrong. easily.
   53. Textbook Editor Posted: November 20, 2022 at 09:45 AM (#6106222)
So 10 min into the pregame on Fox and I have to turn it off. The backslapping and “gee Qatar is great!” vibe is nauseating.

If I watch the Spanish-language feed I at least I won’t understand all the Qatar bootlicking.

Hopefully Ecuador wins big today.
   54. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2022 at 11:06 AM (#6106223)
Pre-game broadcasts is anathema to be under the best of circumstances. No way in hell I would have watched even a second of any of it prior to this one.

I almost considered turning on the game a minute or two late as I thought the pre-game ceremonial #### would have encroached on the scheduled game time, but luckily it started pretty much right on time.

And now Ecuador have scored! It's a good start to the tourney.

edit: scratch that. I suspect bribery.
   55. Textbook Editor Posted: November 20, 2022 at 11:09 AM (#6106224)
Ok so someone gonna have to explain how that goal was off side. Home cooking starting early in Qatar. Guess I should pencil them into the QF.
   56. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 20, 2022 at 11:10 AM (#6106225)
Seriously, where was the offsides and hey fox how about a replay? The one they showed there were three guys between Valencia and the goal
   57. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 20, 2022 at 11:16 AM (#6106226)
How is that offside? The touch comes after the kick and the ball is touched by the keeper. That needs explaining to me.
   58. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2022 at 11:19 AM (#6106227)
Does anyone understand that offside call? They called it on number 11, but who played the pass? The "pass" appeared to be the bad punch by the GK, where 11 was also involved in the pass (maybe he partially got his head on it? But he can't be offside passing to himself). Am I missing something?
   59. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 20, 2022 at 11:22 AM (#6106228)
Unrelated to the terrible offside, is anyone else having video issues while streaming? The picture quality I’m getting is awful.
   60. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2022 at 11:26 AM (#6106229)
No 2 challenged for the ball, and number 11 received the ball. They are calling that a "pass" by number 2 to number 11. I think that is highly questionable. See link.

edit: it's really hard to tell on that video if it was played by #2 or punched by the keeper.
   61. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 20, 2022 at 11:33 AM (#6106230)
Yeah I think they botched it. It’s not going to matter because it seems like Qatar are terrible. And if I hear “scientifically accurate” offside from John Strong I’m going to get stabby.
   62. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2022 at 11:34 AM (#6106231)
It's comforting to know that the home team is even worse than expected. Let's hope they go 0-3, and if they fail to score a goal, so much the better.
   63. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 20, 2022 at 11:49 AM (#6106232)
I’m pretty good at separating art and artist. I was expecting to have no issues watching this tournament but so far I’m annoyed. I’m sure the first goal being overturned was correct for some reason and even if it was wrong it wasn’t a bribe or anything but man, it looked shady, then we’ve got John Strong blathering on about Qatar being a proud nation. Dude, I don’t need you to call out their sins during the match but I don’t need you pumping their tires either. And now they show the “excited Qatari fans” and I can’t help but wonder if those are just the people paid to be there.
   64. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 20, 2022 at 11:54 AM (#6106233)
I paid for a month's streaming so I can indoctrinate the girls (5 and 7) into what really matters about the World Cup: rooting for the colonizers to get their teeth kicked in by the former colonies, and to see cruel national stereotypes played out on the pitch in the most on-the-nose way possible.
   65. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 20, 2022 at 12:01 PM (#6106234)
Is that going to be the extent of the discussion about the offsides call? Man Fox, you are allowed to be critical.
   66. Textbook Editor Posted: November 20, 2022 at 12:04 PM (#6106235)
Telemundo has every game with no Fox-fluffing. FWIW.
   67. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2022 at 12:06 PM (#6106236)
In that VAR graphic for the offside they show the position of the second defender but not the GK, so it's not totally clear the GK isn't the second to last defender. They also don't show if the Ecuador player (#2) even touched the ball. Both of these would be critical facts.
   68. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2022 at 12:10 PM (#6106238)
It may have been offside anyway, but it's virtually certain that VAR graphic they showed is useless because the GK seems to be the second to last defender. See, e.g., here, at 30 seconds. 27 seconds maybe even better. It's still very hard to tell if the GK or #11 is closer to the goal line, but whatever it is it is much closer than the VAR graphic showed.

I still can't tell if it's the GK or Ecuador #2 who touched the ball on the offending "pass".
   69. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: November 20, 2022 at 12:17 PM (#6106239)
I paid for a month's streaming so I can indoctrinate the girls (5 and 7) into what really matters about the World Cup: rooting for the colonizers to get their teeth kicked in by the former colonies

So you are rooting against the US then?
   70. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 20, 2022 at 12:29 PM (#6106241)
I mean, the geopolitical narratives are always great. But more like, Senegal just taking it to France.
   71. Snowboy Posted: November 20, 2022 at 12:31 PM (#6106242)
I can’t help but wonder if those are just the people paid to be there.


Jose I'll second many of your sentiments. (Although I am not streaming, I'm watching network broadcast, so it's clear and plenty of replays.)
I don't know who the commentators are, and I've got it on mute half the time (I wouldn't normally be watching at all, but Mrs. Snowboy got up early to watch the opening ceremonies {BTS-Jung Kook} and has been asking me soccer questions all morning) but the guys on my feed (which I don't believe is FOX, up here in Canada) came as close to the line of saying "that was a bullshit call" about that first "offside" disallowed goal as English soccer commentators can get. It reeked off a "fixed" call for the host team. Made me want to ask what the O/U was on disallowed goals in Qatar games? It should probably be more than the O/U on _actual_ goals scored by Qatar.

As for the crazies jumping and down behind the goal, they are absolutely paid to be there and put on a show. But why do you call them "people" when you should just call them "men"? Years of being bashed on the head with political correctness has changed your speech, but P.C. has never reached the shores of Qatar. They do not consider women to be equal, and they are unabashed and unapologetic about it.

As for Qatar's play, it could be worse. At least they are taking it on the chin, they're not flopping about and whingeing, or injuring their better opponents.
   72. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 20, 2022 at 12:32 PM (#6106243)
Watching the replay of the disallowed goal I still can't figure out a ball that came off an attacker and went to another attacker who was in an offside position.

After a pretty dominant first half Ecuador seems to have taken their foot off the gas a bit here in the second half. If I were them I'd want one more goal but they have to be thrilled.
   73. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2022 at 12:41 PM (#6106245)
Yeah any group of four with one team significantly worse than the others is always at bigger risk of being decided on GD. Still pretty unlikely though.
   74. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2022 at 01:00 PM (#6106246)
Home team fans leaving early, many as early as the half, also sure is quite the ringing endorsement for putting the world cup in this country.
   75. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2022 at 02:37 PM (#6106249)
This angle shows the offside the best. The GK still seems like the last defender the call should be keyed off of, but it is very close versus the other defender, so it probably doesn't matter.

It's still impossible to tell from anything I've seen that the ball hit the Ecuadorian player's head. It did bounce in a strange direction so most likely it did hit his head anyway.
   76. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 20, 2022 at 04:50 PM (#6106252)
I've just come to the conclusion that it's not worth taking the refereeing in Qatar's matches seriously. Maybe hasn't been for a while.
   77. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2022 at 08:03 PM (#6106261)
The 11 shots in the game (five for Qatar, six for Ecuador) were the fewest of any World Cup game since records began in 1966.
   78. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 20, 2022 at 09:13 PM (#6106262)
MONDAY* SCHEDULE (we’ll see if I stay energized enough to keep this going for the next two weeks). All times will be eastern time zone times;

8AM England v Iran
11AM Senegal v Netherlands
2PM USA v Wales

* this always said Monday, I don't know what Howie is talking about.
   79. Textbook Editor Posted: November 20, 2022 at 09:20 PM (#6106263)
I'm going to enjoy immersing myself in Telemundo coverage from here on out. Rob Stone, Dempsey, and Lalas should be ashamed of themselves for the absolute fluff job they gave Qatar in the opening 10 minutes of coverage. It was awful, pathetic. Their cheerleading was nauseating and I hope to hell the coverage bombs.

I'm not saying they had to open the way Linekar did on the BBC coverage but surely there's a middle ground?

On the soccer front--anyone else think it's strange France is not replacing Benzema? I mean, sure, whoever they picked likely wouldn't be playing much anyway, but does anyone think this indicates some vague hope he could get some sort of minutes in a WC Final should France make it?
   80. Howie Menckel Posted: November 20, 2022 at 10:51 PM (#6106267)
TUESDAY SCHEDULE

no idea what country/time zone you are in, but I believe US plays Wales on MONDAY at 2 pm, no?
   81. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 20, 2022 at 11:24 PM (#6106268)
8AM England v Iran
11AM Senegal v Netherlands
2PM USA v Wales


No late nights for Andy!
   82. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 21, 2022 at 08:16 AM (#6106272)
On the soccer front--anyone else think it's strange France is not replacing Benzema? I mean, sure, whoever they picked likely wouldn't be playing much anyway, but does anyone think this indicates some vague hope he could get some sort of minutes in a WC Final should France make it?


Yeah if the prognosis is 3-4 weeks (which is what I've read) it probably makes sense to leave him on the roster and hope he can contribute in a semi and/or final.
   83. SoSH U at work Posted: November 21, 2022 at 08:22 AM (#6106273)
Allowing Iran's keeper to stay on the pitch was disgraceful.
   84. Dolf Lucky Posted: November 21, 2022 at 08:43 AM (#6106274)
Did Landon Donovan have a recent lobotomy or did he study at the Troy Aikman School of Broadcasting?
   85. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 21, 2022 at 09:15 AM (#6106277)
Huh, I've actually been liking Donovan and I'm not a big fan of his.
   86. Dolf Lucky Posted: November 21, 2022 at 09:46 AM (#6106281)
He clearly knows the game (duh) and he's made a few tactical comments that are interesting/insightful, but his voice belongs in a Valentino movie and his cadence comes across as...slow. Just fill the roles with Brits and be done with it.
   87. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 21, 2022 at 10:12 AM (#6106284)
I forget how great it is to have the games streaming on my second screen while I work.
   88. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2022 at 10:38 AM (#6106286)
How many stoppage minutes did that game have across both halves?
   89. jmurph Posted: November 21, 2022 at 10:44 AM (#6106287)
24, I think. 14 in the first, 10 in the second.
   90. SoSH U at work Posted: November 21, 2022 at 10:47 AM (#6106288)
Yes, 24, but they also blew past 10 in the second due to the VAR check.

And you have to understand, they needed 10 minutes of time in the first half to check on the Iranian goalkeeper who was blasted in a head-to-head collision, then another four minutes three minutes later when what was obvious to millions of people watching on TV finally dawned on the officials at the game, that the player had no business being on the field.
   91. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 21, 2022 at 11:20 AM (#6106292)
The body control of these dudes is so astonishing.
   92. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2022 at 11:50 AM (#6106293)
Iran's last goal was at 90+13, according to the reports.
   93. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2022 at 12:07 PM (#6106296)
No rainbows allowed in the stadium. Tons of replies in this twitter post appear to be paid for by the host country, as they basically all say a variant of the same thing.
   94. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 21, 2022 at 12:45 PM (#6106304)
premature maybe
   95. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2022 at 12:55 PM (#6106307)
Senegal is now losing 0-1 to the Netherlands. The announcers say that means they will probably have to beat Ecuador to advance. Considering this game is just a one goal loss, and Ecuador only beat Qatar by 2, my guess is Senegal would still be close to 50/50 to advance if they draw Ecuador. They would likely have the GD advantage (though not certainly). It's a bit hypothetical for now as we'll know after the next round of games anyway, because Senegal plays Qatar and Ecuador plays Netherlands.
   96. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2022 at 01:03 PM (#6106308)
A 2-goal loss is not as good as a 1-goal loss. Senegal might have to try to score a few goals against the host team.
   97. Textbook Editor Posted: November 21, 2022 at 01:38 PM (#6106315)
I hope Senegal and Netherlands beat Qatar like a drum. It would be fun to see only their paid supporters remain in the stadium as they lose 9-0.
   98. Textbook Editor Posted: November 21, 2022 at 01:43 PM (#6106316)
And now Belgium being told they have to remove the word "Love" on the inside of their Away kit collar.

This is just going to keep escalating.
   99. Meatwad Posted: November 21, 2022 at 01:49 PM (#6106317)
Sorry for the dumb question but what do those 5 letter codes mean that I see on the scores? For instance team USA has the code DLDWD.
   100. jmurph Posted: November 21, 2022 at 01:51 PM (#6106318)
Draw Loss Draw Win Draw (recent results)
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