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Sunday, November 13, 2022
OT - World Cup Thread
Group A - Sunday/Monday/Friday/Tuesday
Z-Qatar 0-0-3 -6
Z-Ecuador 1-1-1 +1
Y-Senegal 2-0-1 1
X-Netherlands 2-1-0 +4
Group B - Monday/Friday/Tuesday
X-England 2-1-0 +7
Z-Iran 1-0-2 -3
Y-UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!!!!! (All games 2PM) 1-2-0 +1
Z-Wales 0-1-2 -5
Group C - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday
X-Argentina 2-0-1 +3
Z-Saudi Arabia 1-1-1-2
Z-Mexico 1-1-1 -1
Y-Poland 1-2-0 0
Group D - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday
X-France 2-0-1 +3
Y-Australia 2-0-1 -1
Z-Denmark 0-1-2 -2
Z-Tunisia 1-1-1 0
Group E - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday
Y-Spain 1-1-1 +6
Z-Costa Rica 1-0-2 -8
Z-Germany 1-1-1 +1
X-Japan 2-0-1 +1
Group F - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday
Z-Belgium 1-1-1 -1
Z-Canada 0-0-3 -5
X-Morocco 2-1-0 +3
Y-Croatia 1-2-0 +3
Group G - Thursday/Monday/Friday
Y-Brazil 2-0-0+3
Serbia 0-1-1 -2
Switzerland 1-0-1 0
Cameroon 0-1-1 -1
Group H - Thursday/Monday/Friday
Y-Portugal 2-0-0 +3
Ghana 1-0-1 0
Uruguay 0-1-1 -2
South Korea 0-1-1 -1
X won group
Y advanced
Z eliminated
Jose is an Absurd Sultan
Posted: November 13, 2022 at 06:35 PM | 823 comment(s)
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This might be the year we see a Greece in 2004 Euros scenario at the WC--someone no one ever expected winning it all. It's been such a compressed club schedule that most top players are going to show up exhausted, and that may open the door for complete mayhem.
I'd say you're not wildly off my own guesses.
I'd have Mexico rather than Poland in Group C, Spain rather than Japan in group E, and Portugal rather than South Korea in group H. But, that isn't so different.
As for the rest of the tournament, yeah I think weird #### happening is a distinct possibility. US94 and Asia02 both had some pretty strange results and I won't be remotely surprised if the same is true here. The timing of the tournament, the weather, even the atmosphere of the presumably sober crowds. It's very up in the air. I'm disgusted that it's in Qatar but I'm excited for the tournament.
100%, and that goes for every team in the group (it would obviously be a surprise if England went 0-3, but I don't think they're in great shape at the moment).
edit: as far as mayhem goes, I tend to think there should be more uncertainty this year, so favorites should be a little less favored than normal. I don't know that this is showing up in the betting odds though.
Iran and Ecuador are both hated by betting odds but have performed very well recently.
edit: or maybe it's that the media has fallen in love a bit with Senegal. With Mane hurt that should put even more of a damper on them, but it hasn't really.
1. USA!
2. England
3. Netherlands
4. Random chaos
Last. As Italy is not in this tournament, I don't really have a team I loathe in this tourney. Though I'm sure I will by the time the finals come around. Probably Portugal, given the deeply annoying presence of you-know-who.
Predictions: I make all my soccer predictions using CRUYFF, a system by which I very carefully reach up my butt and pull things out of it.
1. Japan or Korea repeats the 2002 miracle, and an Asian team makes the semifinals.
2. Messi, in what is likely to be his last World Cup, finally goes bonkers and dominates the tournament in the way we have been waiting for him to do for years.
2A. As a result, Argentina makes the final again.
3. England finishes second in its group, leading to a histrionic freakout from the UK press. Then they win two matches in the knockouts, which does not silence the press at all.
4. France repeats as champs.
Betting odds for tournament winner:
Brazil 4 to 1
France 6-1
Argentina 6.5-1
England 7-1
Spain 8-1
Germany 10-1
Belgium 12-1
Netherlands 12-1
Portugal 12-1
everyone else is at least 28-1, including 100-1 shots U.S., Mexico, Poland, Serbia, and Wales
Saudi Arabia, Costa Rica, and Iran are 500-1
I'm sure both Croatia and Serbia players will manage to throws themselves wildly upon the ground each time a defender comes within a metre of them, then gesticulate wildly at the ref for the non-call. This will occur at least 15 times in every game they play. They are the least enjoyable of national teams every tournament.
It also means that one of the two doesn't win its group, given the draw. Which seems a touch unlikely. But, like I said -- I'm pulling this stuff out of my butt.
edit: I used to label all the tables with "percent chance" or something similar, but it feels like we have about 10 people following these threads and most of them are probably all too familiar with these odds posts already.
Is there a 2004 Greece team in this mix? I'm not sure any of the top 9 teams listed in #11 would qualify as "impregnable defensively," right? So I wonder if someone could park the bus, nick some counter goals, win a lot of 1-0s and PKs and find themselves in a final. With the state of the top players coming in, I think chaos is a real possibility.
Of course, no good defensive teams might mean a lot of 5-4s and 6-3s, which would also be fun.
On peer-to-peer trading sites like Betfair you can do this. For something like shorting Brazil to win the whole tourney the spread is not bad at all. This link shows you can get 5.2 (european odds) to bet against brazil, which is the equivalent of 80.8% that Brazil doesn't win. (They also might charge fees.) For these sites you are "trading" against another person, so can also put up a line (right now) at 5.1 (80.4%) and hope someone trades with you.
Not sure I would call them defensively impregnable, but if I had to pick a complete dark horse team, I would pick Switzerland. They do rarely concede more than 1, max 2 goals though. They won their group ahead of Italy, with 2 draws against them. They beat France on penalties, then lost on penalties to Spain last Euros. So I would expect them to be in every game they are in, even if not necessarily favoured. And they are clearly not afraid of any of the big boys.
Thanks for the info in #18 & #19. I had sort of forgotten about Switzerland; that's a good tap for a dark horse.
I know group of death is subjective, but it would have to contain at least three teams that are considered above average for the tournament, such that such a team has a decent chance of being eliminated at the group stage. (Otherwise, what's the point...?) While not a requirement necessarily, it also helps a lot if the 4th team in the group is competitive. Group E has arguably the worst team in the whole tournament and another one that is clearly below average.
On the other hand, they have identified what probably is the group of death here, that being Group G. Serbia is the best expected third-placed team in the tournament. Cameroon is decent for a 4th-placed team, and Brazil is the favorite in the whole tournament.
They have also noted correctly that the groups are more well balanced than they usually are for a WC.
don't think this is legal anywhere in the U.S.
New Jersey tried "exchange wagering" for horse racing a couple of years ago, and one of the features was (as suggested above) an opportunity to offer the marketplace a number on a horse NOT winning. but with no other states/tracks involved and the relatively small appetite that Americans have on gambling in general, it kind of just faded away.
Australian-based PointsBet is live legally in a number of U.S. states, and they tend to welcome any sort of bet at all. If you want to bet that Brazil not only doesn't win it all, but gets knocked out in the group stage and scores no more than 1 goal in 3 games, they'll presumably give you some hefty odds for that one.
I checked DraftKings and see:
- game lines (win, lose, or draw options)
- single-game parlays such as Argentina beats Saudi Arabia + game has 3 or more goals + Messi scores a goal. that's 100 to win 125 if all 3 legs come true
- goal scorer props like Valencia scores the first goal in Ecuador vs Qatar, 100 to win 450
- game props like Ecuador and Qatar both score, 105 to win 100
- corner kicks, like Over 8.5 of them in the England-Iran match, 120 to win 100
and - wow, so many more that I've given up.
Maybe not. I made a good living doing only this for three/four years on a now defunct site, but it was before the UIGEA (2006)
Weather reports are calling for temps in the near future to be in the mid-high 80s. Hot, but not anything that remarkable for anybody outside of maybe the Nordic countries. The average high in Doha in December is 76, which is actually quite pleasant, though I always preferred low 60s for my outdoor athletics.
Netherlands have a very good defense. Well, at least on the theory that Van Dijk's defensive troubles for Liverpool this season are because he was holding himself back for the World Cup.
That is because they seeded all the pots by FIFA ranking, rather than put the teams from the same confederation all into the same pot.
As an example, in 2014 the US (FIFA ranked 13) was in the same pot with Australia (57) and Iran (49). Chile (12) was in the same pot as Cameroon (59) and Nigeria (33). So you could have possibly ended up with Spain (1), Chile (12), the US (11) and the Netherlands (8) in the same group. Nothing even remotely close to that could have happened with the current draw procedure.
The Rest Is History, one of my favorite podcasts, recently did a 3-episode series on World Cup history. The third episode has England legend Gary Lineker, talking about his friendship with Diego Maradona, corruption at the notorious Zurich meeting in 2010, and how winning the Golden Boot in 1986 changed his life.
About the show: The Rest Is History is hosted by Dominic Sandbrook and Tom Holland (not the actor), a couple of what you'd call "public historians" in the UK. They're funny, they're friendly, they're irrepressibly English and perfectly pleased to be so. The show is a generalist sort of thing, so they've covered everything from Assyria to Watergate, usually in hour-long episodes that come out twice a week like clockwork.
Done. Sorry about that.
While this may well be true, is there any significant chance that someone doing it in the US would get in trouble for it?
Do we know if Southgate was aware of the allegations?
This is kid stuff. It's not uncommon for me to come back from a long run outside 8 or so pounds lighter than I started, and that includes drinking a fair amount of water. I weight less than this guy too.
The loss of electrolytes is probably also overstated here. Professional half marathoners don't usually eat or drink anything and burn more calories than a soccer player would in a match. Some full marathoners don't take in any calories or even drink anything either (but most do), and they burn way more calories and electolytes than a soccer player would in a game.
Potentially it's more the dilution of electrolytes by sweating a lot out and replacing with plain water that is a bigger consideration. Probably the most important point though is overall training and fitness, and preparation prior to game day. Just trying to handle hydration and electrolyte issues on the day of competition is a very poor substitute.
(Let's not talk about what I weigh now.)
I have cramped but never during a workout. For me it's always later in the day before my body has fully recovered, usually when making an unusual motion with my legs and in particular my littler toes (toe cramps).
Does Qatar not allow gatorade?
betting 538 qualify winner qualify winner elo fifa Group A netherlands 87 66 79 53 2040 1695 senegal 49 16 51 21 1687 1584 ecuador 46 13 48 19 1833 1464 qatar 18 5 22 7 1680 1440 Group B england 88 69 80 55 1920 1728 usa 47 14 53 22 1798 1627 wales 44 13 32 11 1790 1570 iran 21 4 34 12 1817 1565 Group C argentina 90 69 84 60 2141 1770 mexico 51 15 54 21 1821 1645 poland 49 14 38 13 1809 1549 saudi arabia 10 2 24 7 1640 1438 Group D france 90 66 83 55 2005 1760 denmark 71 26 65 29 1971 1667 tunisia 20 4 31 10 1687 1508 australia 19 4 22 6 1719 1489 Group E spain 87 49 81 47 2045 1715 germany 85 44 76 40 1960 1650 japan 21 6 34 11 1798 1560 costa rica 7 1 8 2 1743 1504 Group F belgium 84 58 62 36 2025 1817 croatia 65 28 54 28 1922 1646 morocco 29 8 46 21 1753 1564 canada 22 6 37 15 1765 1475 Group G brazil 90 70 91 72 2169 1841 switzerland 49 14 48 13 1929 1636 serbia 43 12 41 11 1892 1564 cameroon 18 4 20 4 1609 1471 Group H portugal 83 56 81 53 2004 1677 uruguay 68 32 65 30 1936 1639 south korea 25 6 36 12 1786 1530 ghana 24 6 18 5 1540 1393538 loves the USA vis a vis Wales. Group G is shockingly identical to betting odds.
I may make some small bets. I really like Portugal but Ronaldo drama and his age give me some pause. I'm guessing there isn't any value in betting Brazil, Argentina or France.
odds 538 brazil 19.5 22 argentina 15 8 france 12 9 spain 9.5 11 england 9.5 7 germany 7.5 7 netherlands 6.5 6 portugal 5.5 8 belgium 5 3 denmark 2.5 3 uruguay 1.5 3 croatia 1.5 2 switzerland 0.5 1 serbia 0.5 1 senegal 0.5 1 mexico 0.3 1 poland 0.3 0.5 usa 0.25 1 ecuador 0.25 1 wales 0.2 0.4 morocco 0.2 1 japan 0.2 0.7 south korea 0.2 0.4 cameroon 0.2 0.2 canada 0.15 0.4 ghana 0.15 0.1 qatar 0.15 0.15 australia 0.1 0.15 iran 0.1 0.4 tunisia 0.1 0.4 saudia arabia 0.05 0.15 costa rica 0.05 0.05They diverge on the rest of the conferences, unsurprisingly. 3% by betting odds and 7% by 538.
If 538 is even half right it could be a very entertaining group. And I will also enjoy rooting for Canada.
easiest draw in the field, from what I can see, and they are pretty good.
not sure they can get through the main draw without winning a PK round, but am saying there's a chance.
but I could be wrong. easily.
If I watch the Spanish-language feed I at least I won’t understand all the Qatar bootlicking.
Hopefully Ecuador wins big today.
I almost considered turning on the game a minute or two late as I thought the pre-game ceremonial #### would have encroached on the scheduled game time, but luckily it started pretty much right on time.
And now Ecuador have scored! It's a good start to the tourney.
edit: scratch that. I suspect bribery.
edit: it's really hard to tell on that video if it was played by #2 or punched by the keeper.
I still can't tell if it's the GK or Ecuador #2 who touched the ball on the offending "pass".
So you are rooting against the US then?
Jose I'll second many of your sentiments. (Although I am not streaming, I'm watching network broadcast, so it's clear and plenty of replays.)
I don't know who the commentators are, and I've got it on mute half the time (I wouldn't normally be watching at all, but Mrs. Snowboy got up early to watch the opening ceremonies {BTS-Jung Kook} and has been asking me soccer questions all morning) but the guys on my feed (which I don't believe is FOX, up here in Canada) came as close to the line of saying "that was a bullshit call" about that first "offside" disallowed goal as English soccer commentators can get. It reeked off a "fixed" call for the host team. Made me want to ask what the O/U was on disallowed goals in Qatar games? It should probably be more than the O/U on _actual_ goals scored by Qatar.
As for the crazies jumping and down behind the goal, they are absolutely paid to be there and put on a show. But why do you call them "people" when you should just call them "men"? Years of being bashed on the head with political correctness has changed your speech, but P.C. has never reached the shores of Qatar. They do not consider women to be equal, and they are unabashed and unapologetic about it.
As for Qatar's play, it could be worse. At least they are taking it on the chin, they're not flopping about and whingeing, or injuring their better opponents.
After a pretty dominant first half Ecuador seems to have taken their foot off the gas a bit here in the second half. If I were them I'd want one more goal but they have to be thrilled.
It's still impossible to tell from anything I've seen that the ball hit the Ecuadorian player's head. It did bounce in a strange direction so most likely it did hit his head anyway.
8AM England v Iran
11AM Senegal v Netherlands
2PM USA v Wales
* this always said Monday, I don't know what Howie is talking about.
I'm not saying they had to open the way Linekar did on the BBC coverage but surely there's a middle ground?
On the soccer front--anyone else think it's strange France is not replacing Benzema? I mean, sure, whoever they picked likely wouldn't be playing much anyway, but does anyone think this indicates some vague hope he could get some sort of minutes in a WC Final should France make it?
no idea what country/time zone you are in, but I believe US plays Wales on MONDAY at 2 pm, no?
No late nights for Andy!
Yeah if the prognosis is 3-4 weeks (which is what I've read) it probably makes sense to leave him on the roster and hope he can contribute in a semi and/or final.
And you have to understand, they needed 10 minutes of time in the first half to check on the Iranian goalkeeper who was blasted in a head-to-head collision, then another four minutes three minutes later when what was obvious to millions of people watching on TV finally dawned on the officials at the game, that the player had no business being on the field.
This is just going to keep escalating.
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