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Sunday, November 13, 2022

OT - World Cup Thread

Group A - Sunday/Monday/Friday/Tuesday
Z-Qatar 0-0-3 -6
Z-Ecuador 1-1-1 +1
Y-Senegal 2-0-1 1
X-Netherlands
2-1-0 +4

Group B - Monday/Friday/Tuesday
X-England 2-1-0 +7
Z-Iran 1-0-2 -3
Y-UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!!!!! (All games 2PM) 1-2-0 +1
Z-Wales 0-1-2 -5

Group C - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday
X-Argentina 2-0-1 +3
Z-Saudi Arabia 1-1-1-2
Z-Mexico 1-1-1 -1
Y-Poland 1-2-0 0

Group D - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday
X-France 2-0-1 +3
Y-Australia 2-0-1 -1
Z-Denmark 0-1-2 -2
Z-Tunisia 1-1-1 0

Group E - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday
Spain 1-1-0 +7
Costa Rica 1-0-1 -6
Germany 0-0-2 -1
Japan
1-0-1 0

Group F - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday
Belgium 1-1-0 -1
Z-Canada 0-0-2 -4
Morocco 1-1-0 +2
Croatia 1-1-0 +3

Group G - Thursday/Monday/Friday
Y-Brazil 2-0-0+3
Serbia 0-1-1 -2
Switzerland 1-0-1 0
Cameroon 0-1-1 -1

Group H - Thursday/Monday/Friday
Y-Portugal 2-0-0 +3
Ghana 1-0-1 0
Uruguay 0-1-1 -2
South Korea 0-1-1 -1


X won group
Y advanced
Z eliminated

Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 13, 2022 at 06:35 PM | 391 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   101. Meatwad Posted: November 21, 2022 at 02:03 PM (#6106319)
Ok, makes sense.
   102. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 21, 2022 at 02:41 PM (#6106321)
Wales looks half asleep.
   103. Snowboy Posted: November 21, 2022 at 02:49 PM (#6106322)
That was a nice burst of speed by Pulisic to find some space, and then a lovely pass on to Weah, who finished it well. 1-0 USA
   104. Dolf Lucky Posted: November 21, 2022 at 02:53 PM (#6106323)
I know we're only 135 minutes in, but is Group B possibly the least floppy group in World Cup history?
   105. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2022 at 03:41 PM (#6106327)
uh oh.

edit: Zimmerman might have gotten the ball even, but he came through the back and took out the man. That's a foul every day of the week.
   106. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 21, 2022 at 03:49 PM (#6106329)
Why on earth didn't Aaronson start this match?
   107. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2022 at 03:52 PM (#6106331)
This new procedure for adding time to the end of halves is certainly different. Players might have to get used to games being slightly longer.
   108. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2022 at 04:08 PM (#6106334)
Well that sure fizzled out. The US got worse and worse as the game went on. I could only keep one eye on it, but it was still clear as day.
   109. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 21, 2022 at 04:10 PM (#6106335)
Yeah what's going on with the additional time? The England/Iran game I understood the big adds but not sure where 9 minutes came from.

I'll take the point. Coming into the game I would have been satisfied with that result but the way the game played out I think we could have gotten the win put away in the first half. I thought Adams was exceptional and Pulisic had a poor game. Zimmerman and Ream I thought were good with the one notable exception which I suppose is life as a center back personified.

To Voxter's question I'm fine bringing Aaronson off the bench. If I were to criticize Berhalter I feel like he waited a little too long in the second half to make adjustments either of tactics or of personnel and for that matter to have the team ready to play at the start of the second half. We let Wales back into the game. Probably need a draw on Friday with England now. That's doable.
   110. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2022 at 04:16 PM (#6106336)
I'll take the point but only considering how bad the US looked in the second half. This was a disappointing game, and their odds of advancing should have decreased meaningfully with this draw, considering the order of remaining ties.

Often when a team underperforms, and in particularly in the second half, people blame the coach (whether right or wrong). I wasn't able to watch the game closely enough to have an opinion on that.
   111. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 21, 2022 at 04:17 PM (#6106337)
I'll add that while I thought Pulisic played poorly he made a great pass for the goal.
   112. Snowboy Posted: November 21, 2022 at 04:19 PM (#6106338)
Just saw Gareth Bale interviewed live, post-game. He didn't know where the extra 9 minutes came from either?
   113. Howie Menckel Posted: November 21, 2022 at 04:30 PM (#6106340)
Circumstantial evidence here that the right side of the US v Wales field is downhill - best way to explain the flipflopping dominance.

seems like a fair draw to me.
or maybe I'm just in a good mood after my Orange won 2-nil

:)
   114. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2022 at 04:44 PM (#6106343)
Collina:

“What we already did in Russia [2018] was to more accurately calculate the time to be compensated,” the chairman of the FIFA referees committee told ESPN.

“We told everybody to don’t be surprised if they see the fourth official raising the electronic board with a big number on it, six, seven or eight minutes.

“If you want more active time, we need to be ready to see this kind of additional time given. Think of a match with three goals scored. A celebration normally takes one, one and a half minutes, so with three goals scored, you lose five or six minutes.

“What we want to do is accurately calculate the added time at the end of each half. It can be the fourth official to do that, we were successful in Russia and we expect the same in Qatar.

“I am not talking about VAR intervention, this is something which is different and calculated by the Video Assistant Referee in a very precise way.
   115. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 21, 2022 at 05:14 PM (#6106350)
What's annoying about this match is that, other than Bale, there's not a single guy on the Wales squad who would get near the starting 11 for the USA. Not that you could tell from that second half display.
   116. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2022 at 05:55 PM (#6106354)
Early indications are that the US odds have gone up slightly despite the draw. I don't understand that unless people were either impressed with the way the US played or thought Wales were more shite than anticipated. Potentially it is the latter.
   117. Howie Menckel Posted: November 21, 2022 at 07:06 PM (#6106361)
“What we already did in Russia [2018] was to more accurately calculate the time to be compensated,” the chairman of the FIFA referees committee told ESPN.

someday, someone will invent a device that literally stops the clock during "down time" - then resumes as play does.

perhaps this magical device could even be visible to the public. that way, in the latter stages of a game, each team - and the fans - would know exactly how much time is left in the half or game.

there is a downside, of course - it becomes far more difficult to 'speed up' or 'slow down' the clock in order to benefit a preferred side.

other than that, I think it could work, gosh darn it !
   118. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2022 at 07:29 PM (#6106363)
Howie you may already know this, but one of the main reasons soccer fans don't fully embrace the idea of stopping the clock is that they are worried the next step is the broadcast breaking away to ads.

I'm ambivalent about it for the same reason. I pretty much stopped watching all other sports now in large part because once the ads come on I switch away and never come back.
   119. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 21, 2022 at 07:32 PM (#6106364)
Early indications are that the US odds have gone up slightly despite the draw. I don't understand that unless people were either impressed with the way the US played or thought Wales were more shite than anticipated. Potentially it is the latter.

The odds you posted on the previous page had the US and Wales almost exactly even (47-44 to the US) in likelihood of advancing. I wouldn’t expect the odds to move in any kind of way that was meaningful. I’m not sure why the US would go up rather than down but I’d assume it’s within some kind of margin of error either way.

I do think the US was the better team overall. Wales were definitely better in the second half but I think the US were better by a greater margin in the first half. While they had a couple of chances I didn’t feel like Wales was creating much even with the pressure.

Something else we haven’t touched on is that Turner did a good job on the PK. He went the right way and got a hand to it but Bale just put enough on it to get it through.
   120. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2022 at 07:51 PM (#6106366)
The US has the harder two games remaining, because they have to play England first. They really cannot afford to lose against England (current odds 62% England win) or they severely risk England not being fully motivated against Wales on the final day.

All other things being equal, their odds should have fallen slightly v Wales with this draw. The opposite seems to have occurred. The US odds have gone up, or at least stayed the same, while the odds for Wales have definitely gone down. The only explanation I can really think of is that bettors were very unimpressed with Wales today.

current odds to advance: US about 50%, Wales, about 41% (Iran 14%, England 95%)
   121. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 21, 2022 at 08:16 PM (#6106370)
I’m neither a bettor nor a statistician but is that change meaningful or just kind of a shrug? I’m with you, I’d have expected the odds to go in the opposite direction (probably by about the same amount) for the same reasons you say. That schedule is key.

Of course the US has never lost to England in the World Cup nor have they ever lost a World Cup game played in the Middle East or in November so that’s a good sign and certainly statistically meaningful.
   122. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2022 at 08:29 PM (#6106373)
That's a meaningful difference. England won and Iran lost, which are kind of a wash, I would say 2-3 percentage points in this situation could be a shrug and/or in the margin of error, but Wales odds have gone down more than that.
   123. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 21, 2022 at 09:09 PM (#6106377)
OK, so this is entirely by eyeball so I’m sure I got some stuff wrong. This is every situation where a team needed a draw to advance as group winners and what happened in their final match since 2006. The teams in that situation were 13W-6D-0L. Now a lot of these games had matchups that would show the team already on top of the group as heavy favorites anyway. I think England would be meaningful favorites over Wales in a normal situation (presumably a shade above that 62% against the US forecast).

Now as I said, I may have missed a few spots and there’s a lot of noise in this small sample. But I figured it was worth checking out. What strikes me is it doesn’t seem like teams completely take the foot off the gas. Obviously England can’t go into that game and sleep walk, if they lose Wales wins the group and presumably they’d rather play Senegal/Ecuador rather than presumptive Group A winner Netherlands. Also as related to the specific situation here I think England will have a bit of extra motivation against Wales as there is some kind of rivalry there.

Obviously I’d rather not have to put my eggs in this particular basket. Getting something out of the game Friday would be huge. If the US does that they become huge favorites to advance as a win over Iran probably does the trick even with a draw. The only way that doesn’t happen is if Wales just demolishes Iran. Iran are kind of a shambles right now and some big numbers against them are doable but based on what I saw today I think it’s 50-50 at worst as to which of the US or Wales is more likely to get the bigger GD against Iran.

I think this is similar to the US-Germany game in 2014. The situation was basically what we would be seeing here and Germany still won though the US kept it close enough to get through as Portugal couldn’t put the hammer down on Ghana who were a similar mess to Iran.

Tl;dr I don’t think we should assume Wales will get anything from England even if England are already through.

2006:
Germany. - win
England - draw
Portugal-win
Brazil-win
Spain-win

2010:
Uruguay-win
Argentina-win
Netherlands-win
Paraguay-draw
Brazil-draw

2014:
Netherlands-win
Costa Rica-draw
France-draw
Argentina-win
Germany-win
Belgium-win

2018:
France-draw
Argentina-win
Belgium-win
   124. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 21, 2022 at 09:29 PM (#6106378)
TUESDAY SCHEDULE:

5AM Argentina-Saudi Arabia
8AM Denmark-Tunisia
11AM Mexico-Poland
2PM France-Australia
   125. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2022 at 09:34 PM (#6106379)
Thanks Jose, that is interesting. When I get a chance I might take a look at those games. Anyway, we have a good chance of finding out what people think in a few days if Wales beats Iran and England beats the US.

England is currently 65% to beat Wales, which does not seem to be pricing in any discount, or at least not much, for England beating the US next round.
   126. Howie Menckel Posted: November 21, 2022 at 09:35 PM (#6106380)

Howie you may already know this, but one of the main reasons soccer fans don't fully embrace the idea of stopping the clock is that they are worried the next step is the broadcast breaking away to ads.

I'm ambivalent about it for the same reason. I pretty much stopped watching all other sports now in large part because once the ads come on I switch away and never come back.


Aunt Bea, I appreciate that. but I think at this point, the cure is better than the disease.

and if not being bored by commercial breaks is an issue, then as I have often noted, just fall 5-10 minutes behind the "action" at times - and catch up at other times. the latter allows for some live social media interaction, which is usually the argument against my point. but, well, we can't have everything.

I watched the end of a college football game live on Saturday (Ohio State-Maryland) and - never again. I think there were 3 plays run in real-time 10 minutes. ridiculous. next time I'll spend 8 minutes doing something productive (like posting inanity on BBTF) rather than sit hostage to commercials.

   127. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 21, 2022 at 09:56 PM (#6106384)
Also, honestly, what problem does stopping the clock even solve? And, again honestly, is that really worth changing something that is integral to the game?
   128. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2022 at 10:25 PM (#6106390)
Also, honestly, what problem does stopping the clock even solve? And, again honestly, is that really worth changing something that is integral to the game?
This one is easy. Time wasting late in the game is a blight on soccer. It's ugly, unsporting, and dull, and generally terrible as a spectacle for fans. The end of a close game should be an exciting sprint not a limping, gasping crawl where almost no soccer is being played. Time wasting has been shown time and again to be very effective because referees have not historically put all or even half the time wasted back on the clock, so teams have had every incentive to keep doing it.

If FIFA really does stick to its guns and include back in the clock every second wasted for time wasting, maybe players will start playing soccer at the end of games and we won't have to stop the clock officially and bring in ads. I'll believe it when I see it.
   129. Howie Menckel Posted: November 22, 2022 at 01:55 AM (#6106408)
Time wasting late in the game is a blight on soccer. It's ugly, unsporting, and dull, and generally terrible as a spectacle for fans. The end of a close game should be an exciting sprint not a limping, gasping crawl where almost no soccer is being played.

I truly appreciate the candor.

let's fix the clock first.

then, next up - suspending players for comical "OW, I've just been shot by a sniper!" collapses that happen to end the moment the duped official hands out a yellow card. another easy fix.

just because American sports timing tends to be overly anal-retentive does not mean that a different approach doesn't also suck as much - or more. both things can be true.
   130. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 22, 2022 at 02:12 AM (#6106411)
I redid the list from above, and found 9 wins and 5 draws by a team that had already effectively clinched, playing a team that had not clinched. The parentheses show what the opponent needed. I think the italicized ones were wrong.

Already clinched teams never lost!

Records against category of opponent:

6 wins, 1 draw against teams needing a win
2 wins, 3 draws against teams needing a draw, and all 5 of those 2nd placed teams advanced in second!
1 win, 1 draw against eliminated teams

Part of that middle group above is sleepy games against teams that only need a draw who are not pushing hard for the win. That is where England/Wales will be if England beats the US and Wales beats Iran. Both teams that lost (2006 Mexico and 2014 Nigeria) advanced anyway, and were never in real danger of going out as the other group games were going their way. Mexico started the game with a big GD edge on Angola, and after the 23rd minute Nigeria had a 2+ goal gap over Iran.

Out of the 5 games, only England/Sweden had any goals after the 50th minute. 2018 France/Denmark and 2010 Brazil/Portugal were 0-0.

You have to go back to 2002 to find a case where a team needing a draw failed to advance against an opponent who had already clinched. It happened twice! South Africa v Spain and Costa Rica v Brazil.


2006:
England - draw (Sweden needed a draw)
Portugal - win (Mexico needed a draw)
Brazil - win (Japan needed a win)
Spain - win (Saudi Arabia needed a win)

2010:
Argentina - win (Greece needed to win)
Netherlands - win (Cameroon was eliminated)
Brazil - draw (Portugal needed a draw)

2014:
Colombia - win (Japan needed a win)
Costa Rica - draw (England was eliminated)
France - draw (Ecuador needed a win) France had not actually clinched, but would have had to lose by 4+ goals
Argentina - win (Nigeria needed a draw)
Belgium - win (South Korea needed a win)

2018:
France- draw (Denmark needed a draw)
Croatia - win (Iceland needed a win, and Croatia got their own winner very late when Iceland was pushing to win)



2018 - Belgium v England both teams had already qualified.
2014 - Netherlands v Chile both teams had already qualified
2014 - Germany v USA - Germany had not clinched
2010 - Uruguay v Mexico neither team had clinched, and GD for both was similar
2010 - Paraguay had not clinched
2006 - Germany v Ecuador both had clinched


   131. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 22, 2022 at 02:44 AM (#6106413)
If you go back to 1998, you actually can find a case where the team who won had clinched the top spot in the group already, proceeded to lose on the last day. It also happened twice! Brazil lost to Norway allowing Norway to advance over Morocco, and Nigeria lost to Paraguay allowing Paraguay to advance over Spain. Both teams had already clinched first place in the group before playing their final game, which is very rare. It can only happen if one team wins both their first two games while the other two group games end in draws. It hasn't happened at all in the past 5 world cups (over 40 groups)--the last time it happened was 1998, when it happened twice. And both times the group winner lost their final game.

If the US loses, then if Wales beats Iran Group B will have the scenario where Wales just needs a draw, described in the post immediately above. If Wales only draws Iran, Group B will be the scenario described in this post. Both seem far from ideal for the USA.

This is still a very small sample size, but it does align somewhat with intuition.
   132. Where have you gone Brady Anderson? Posted: November 22, 2022 at 07:09 AM (#6106416)
Big upset in the early game. Argentina was much better in the first half. Messi scored on a penalty, Argentina had two goals waved off due to offsides, and Saudi Arabia never really threatened. Saudi Arabia dominated the first 15 minutes of the second half, scored two quick goals, and then were able to hold on.
   133. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 22, 2022 at 07:11 AM (#6106417)
By ELO that might have been the biggest upset in World Cup history.
   134. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 22, 2022 at 07:28 AM (#6106418)
Group C now could go to anyone. Saudia Arabia was considered to be one of the worst teams in the tournament, and Argentina won of the very best.

eloratings.net has this as tied for the biggest elo swing in any international game ever, with USA/England in 1950. They have bigger swings for some 2-goal upsets but that's a function of elo.

WC 10 most notable upsets by elo

1934 - Sweden 3 - 2 Argentina
1950 - USA 1 - 0 England
1950 - Uruguay 2 - 1 Brazil
1982 - Algeria 2 - 1 West Germany
1998 - Nigeria 3 - 2 Spain
2002 - Senegal 1 - 0 France
2006 - Ghana 2 - 0 Czech Republic
2010 - Switzerland 1 - 0 Spain
2018 - South Korea 2 - 0 Germany
2022 - Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Argentina



   135. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 22, 2022 at 08:16 AM (#6106420)
How many people (like me) said "man, I'd wake up if this was a good game but I'm not waking up to watch Argentina curbstomp Saudi Arabia."
   136. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 22, 2022 at 08:21 AM (#6106421)
   137. Swedish Chef Posted: November 22, 2022 at 08:26 AM (#6106422)
I'm surprised North Korea-Italy 1-0 in 1966 is missing in that list.
   138. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 22, 2022 at 09:48 AM (#6106429)
It was a very big upset, but North Korea had a high ELO at that time, as they had hardly ever lost in international soccer, and had some good results. Maybe they were overrated by ELO due to limited history. Don't forget they also jumped out to a 3-0 lead on Portugal.

edit: also it was a much bigger result in that it was the third group game and sent Italy home. That raises the stakes enormously versus a game like the one today, even if it does not affect ELO.
   139. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 22, 2022 at 10:14 AM (#6106431)
After a couple of "chalk" days the first two games today have been a bit surprising. KSA obviously is a huge shocker and I think Tunisia have to be delighted to take a point of the Danes.
   140. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 22, 2022 at 10:26 AM (#6106433)
I could only watch bits of it but Denmark did not look that good.

Denmark is not yet at any risk of not advancing, but have little chance of winning the group now. It's unclear whether finishing second in the group will turn out to be a disadvantage. The Group C winner is wide open now, but Argentina is still favorite.
   141. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 22, 2022 at 11:24 AM (#6106442)
Are these announcers thick? Ian Darke (if it was him) said that the offside was obvious "and was in a wide position" so should have been called immediately. Now it's true it was fairly obvious (at least from the booth), but the Mexican player got the ball and right away had an excellent look at goal. That wasn't any kind of wide position.

It's like they still are pretending not to understand the purpose of rule for the linesperson leaving the flag down, because they find it just so offensive that the game has to be called back for an offside a few seconds later.
   142. Snowboy Posted: November 22, 2022 at 02:15 PM (#6106468)
OH BOY!
SoccerRoos up 1-0 on France!
80+ minutes to go, but a really nice inside move by Leckie, great cross, and Goodwin fires it home.
   143. Snowboy Posted: November 22, 2022 at 02:18 PM (#6106470)
(France's Hernandez goes off holding his knee, replaced by another Hernandez [his brother] after the goal.
He should have gone off holding his jockstrap, because he got deked right out of it.)
   144. Textbook Editor Posted: November 22, 2022 at 02:32 PM (#6106472)
Well that was a fun 10 minutes thinking about the Round of 16 and QF matchups with the Live C and D Group Tables. Not so much now.
   145. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 22, 2022 at 02:35 PM (#6106475)
That was a hell of a cross on that Aussie goal.
   146. Snowboy Posted: November 22, 2022 at 02:37 PM (#6106476)
But the Aussies fall apart as quickly as a cake left out in the rain.
France respond quickly (and easily) and take it all back and more. 2-1 France, Giroud his 50th goal in national kit.
   147. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 22, 2022 at 02:40 PM (#6106477)
The announcers in the Mexico/Poland game were making a big stink about how the Saudi Arabia win made it much less likely that a draw would advance versus had Argentina won as expected. No evidence for that though. A draw is a semi-bad result for both teams in any circumstance, since they only share 2 points instead of 3. Pre-game odds had them at 51/49. Now they are at 44/44. Considering the discount for getting a draw, that's basically only a little bit less than it would have been had Argentina won and the two teams drawn.

They both viewed the Saudi Arabia game as a must win regardless, and nothing has changed with Argentina losing the first game.
   148. Textbook Editor Posted: November 22, 2022 at 10:44 PM (#6106540)
The real fun will be if both Brazil and Argentina manage to go out in the group stage. Then you really have a wide-open tournament.

I will keep the home fires burning for a crazy result like Greece 2004.
   149. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 05:33 AM (#6106560)
Argentina's ELO was pretty much tied with its bet ever, and near the best for any international team ever, due to that 36 game streak. Of course, Brazil was still ahead of them. Argentina matched that rating back in the 40s and 50s, but never in the Maradona era. So by ELO they are almost certainly overrated at the moment. Aside from Brazil, other teams only have had ratings as high as Argentina did at special moments in their history, like Hungary in the 50s and Spain in the 2010a. Just another reason why the Saudi Arabia game was such an ELO upset.

Italy had a normal rating (for them) at the time of the North Korea game in 1966.
   150. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 05:43 AM (#6106561)
538 thinks these two teams are pretty evenly matched. Betting odds does not agree. Morocco has looked good over the past few years in qualifying (where they had an easy route, but absolutely dominated) and Afcon, where they only lost to Egypt in extra time in a close game.
   151. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 06:59 AM (#6106565)
4 draws in 9 games so far, 3 of the 4 goalless.

The draw today helps Canada a lot. Even with a loss against Belgium they will still have a good chance to advance. They will need to beat somebody though, and they have the same problem as the USA in the Croatia plays Belgium last. A loss to Belgium followed by a draw to Croatia would likely put them at a structural disadvantage going into the last game.
   152. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 23, 2022 at 08:08 AM (#6106567)
WEDNESDAY SCHEDULE:

5AM - Morocco-Croatia
8AM - Germany-Japan
11AM - Spain-Costa Rica
2PM - Belgium-Canada

Let's just pretend I put this up last night.
   153. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 09:15 AM (#6106570)
Out of the 5 groups played so far, an expected 2nd or 3rd place team has only lost in one of them: Senegal lost to the expected first place team Netherlands. If Japan loses today it will be the first time an expected second places team has beaten an expected third place team, but it would come with an asterisk, because Spain/Germany are really 1a/1b here.

It's because of all the draws. USA/Wales, Mexico/Poland, Denmark/Tunisia, Croatia/Morocco were all 2 v 3 matchups and all ended in draws. We have another one of these 2 v 3 matchups tomorrow with Uruguay taking on South Korea.

It's crazy that 6 of the 8 groups have the 2 v 3 matchup in the first game, since the order was done by random draw. It does partly explain why we have so many draws already.

The last two 2 v 3s are Ecuador/Senegal and Serbia/Switzerland, both in the last game.

(Why all the focus on 2 v 3? If the game doesn't end in a draw it determines which 4 teams advance probably close to 90% of the time.)

edit: and now that I am thinking about it--having the 2v3 game in the first round will probably tend to lead to more cautious play as neither team wants to lose and believes they can make it up in the other games. If the 2v3 game is on the last day one of the teams likely knows it needs to win and we don't get a stagnant game.
   154. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 09:47 AM (#6106572)
Well. Germany is in serious, serious trouble now, and to make matters much worse they have to play Spain next. They have the same structural disadvantage as the USA and Canada.
   155. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 23, 2022 at 10:01 AM (#6106574)
I declare the World Cup officially strange.
   156. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 10:08 AM (#6106577)
Germany played a little too loose at the back in that game, and got burned on multiple occasions in the second half. They got pretty unlucky not to score more themselves though.

The good news is that Spain/Germany matchup just got a whole lot more spicy. It's after the Japan/Costa Rica game, so if Japan wins that one it will really be game on. If Japan can't beat Costa Rica you might see a situation where both Spain and Germany end up playing more cautiously and settle for the draw.
   157. Where have you gone Brady Anderson? Posted: November 23, 2022 at 10:09 AM (#6106580)
That was a lot like the Argentina/Saudi Arabia game. The favorite was in control for the first half but only came away with one goal, the underdog had a short burst of dominance in the second half and then held on. I think part of the lesson is not to get complacent once you have a lead. Run up the score so you have a margin for error.
   158. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: November 23, 2022 at 10:31 AM (#6106584)
I think part of the lesson is not to get complacent once you have a lead.

I think the lesson is to not go up 1:0 by penalty.

Speaking of penalties, apparently Japan had a penalty appeal late in the game. I say apparently, because it was never shown here. They were too busy showing super-slow-mo shots of Japanese fans celebrating, while the commentators were getting all excited. Then 2 mins later, when they were showing the replay, they aborted it to go back to the action, and never went back to it. Just horrifically awful TV direction.
   159. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 11:00 AM (#6106589)
That was a lot like the Argentina/Saudi Arabia game. The favorite was in control for the first half but only came away with one goal, the underdog had a short burst of dominance in the second half and then held on.
Kind of. The first halves were very similar across the board (underdog severely outplayed and doing nothing at all on offense, and even going down 0-1 on penalties) and the second halves were both 2-0 to the underdogs who each played much better than they did in the first half. That's where the similarities end though.

Saudi Arabia scored two goals on like 0.1 xG in the second half, which was horrendously fortunate. On the other hand they played a great defensive second half.

Japan was the opposite. They had 1.4 xG and two goals was only somewhat fortunate based on their offensive display in the second half. They were super leaky at the other end though, and were hugely fortunate that Germany didn't score on them again.

Overall Argentina got the shorter end of the stick on these losses. Germany gave up too much in the back to ever be assured of a win or even a draw. Argentina should have done more offensively but if they give up that little on any other day they would almost never lose.
   160. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: November 23, 2022 at 11:12 AM (#6106593)
Argentina did have 3 goals called off for offsides (albeit two of them very clear cut). I am never really comfortable crediting those with zero xg. The timing of a run on a through ball is its own random probability outcome. The ones that end up offside should still count a certain percentage of the xg generated, and the ones that are onside should not really get 100% of the xg. (I acknowledge this would be very difficult to implement, but on an individual game, I think these kind of things are noteworthy, because xg does not capture them).
   161. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 11:19 AM (#6106594)
For sure they usually indicate scoring chances, sometimes great scoring chances, and it's worth mentioning them in the context of any individual game. To be pedantic I'm fine they are not in xG, because a lot of other good scoring chances aren't either. xG is an imperfect measure.

I wouldn't give too much credit for plays where the offensive player is more than a yard offside though. That's often created intentionally through good defensive play and positioning.
   162. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 11:35 AM (#6106596)
Costa Rica is so bad. They really shouldn't be here.

edit: in prior years they played stingy and nasty, which worked somewhat well in this type of tournament. They weren't even good enough to do that very well at the qualifying stages, and were lucky to finish 4th in concacaf, and even luckier to draw new zealand.
   163. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 11:57 AM (#6106601)
Costa Rica finished 4 points ahead of Panama in qualifying, with a lower group xGD. (They finished level with the USA on points but finished way, way behind the USA on xGD). In Costa Rica's two head to heads with Panama, they had a win and a draw. In those two games combined Panama outshot Costa Rica 34-13, and had the better of them on most other statistics as well.
   164. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 12:06 PM (#6106604)
The Japan/Germany game was a big elo upset too, but nothing like Saudi Arabia/Argentina. Argentina had a fantastic elo rating before the game, and still do even with the loss, whereas Germany's was already near a team low for the last 50+ years, and now has basically tied this low of the last 50 years. Japan is also no Saudi Arabia. Even before the game they had the best elo in Asia (with South Korea a close second).
   165. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 23, 2022 at 12:36 PM (#6106609)
These goals potentially all matter for Spain, if everyone beats Costa Rica and Germany > Spain and Spain > Japan (both plausible) it would come down to GD.
   166. Textbook Editor Posted: November 23, 2022 at 12:56 PM (#6106617)
If Japan beats Puerto Rico, then Germany is out even with a draw against Spain. That seems quite possible and is genuinely shocking.

Now to really spice things up we need Brazil to lose tomorrow and Switzerland to win, which potentially means Brazil would be out with a loss against the Swiss in the 2nd game. Embrace the chaos.
   167. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 01:03 PM (#6106622)
Costa Rica might turn out to be exhibit A of why FIFA should do head-to-head tie breakers at the group stage. At this point, I'd like to see all 3 of these teams run up the score. Plus, Costa Rica being here on some level offends me. They are not even any kind of feel good story as they have been in the WC many times over the past few years and this might be their worst team in a long time.
   168. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: November 23, 2022 at 01:14 PM (#6106625)
If Japan beats Puerto Rico, then Germany is out even with a draw against Spain. That seems quite possible and is genuinely shocking.

Surely Germany could still advance on GD if Japan then beat Spain. I mean, it's looking extremely unlikely, but still possible.
   169. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 01:26 PM (#6106626)
Yeah Germany can't count on that! If Japan beats Costa Rica Sunday morning, which is fairly likely (68% right now), Germany will have to go for broke against Spain. It's not looking good for Germany at all. Not much better than 1/3 chance of advancing by betting odds.
   170. Textbook Editor Posted: November 23, 2022 at 02:00 PM (#6106632)
Germany would have to make up an 8 goal difference in the last game if they draw with Spain. Now, could Japan beat Spain 2-0 and then Germany thump Costa Rica 7-0? I suppose it's possible, but that's the kind of thing that would be necessary if Japan beats Costa Rica and Germany draws with Spain on Sunday. That's a tough climb.

But, hey, beat Spain and suddenly the world's your oyster, and it's possible it's Spain grasping for a result in the last game.
   171. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 02:03 PM (#6106633)
Even if Spain loses to Germany, they will almost certainly just need to beat Japan to advance. Current odds are 74%. That's hardly grasping at straws.

On the other hand, even if Germany beats Spain they might need to score a lot of goals against Costa Rica to advance. That's never a guarantee.
   172. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 02:18 PM (#6106635)
Canada is looking great so far. Pity about the weak penalty take.
   173. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 23, 2022 at 02:23 PM (#6106637)
And pity about the ref flagging for offside when Hazard passed it directly to a Canadian player.
   174. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 23, 2022 at 02:29 PM (#6106639)
First, I must admit my Canadian bias as I have Canadian heritage. But Belgium are getting a lot of weak calls in their favor.
   175. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 02:33 PM (#6106641)
It's wild to see Canada boss Belgium like this. They really should be ahead by now. Shots are 11-2 and that's not really overselling it.
   176. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: November 23, 2022 at 02:41 PM (#6106643)
Canada really should have taken the lead around the 30 minute mark.
   177. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 02:46 PM (#6106645)
Well that sucks.
   178. Textbook Editor Posted: November 23, 2022 at 04:02 PM (#6106657)
That was the first (of many I'm sure) deeply unfair result of the WC. Canada deserved at least a draw, and there's a great argument fully deserved the win.
   179. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: November 23, 2022 at 04:07 PM (#6106658)
Look, I was only making the point that they wouldn't be mathematically eliminated with a draw. Even if their chances would be more theoretical than real.
   180. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 04:09 PM (#6106659)
Terrible result. Still, with Canada looking so good and the other teams in the group drawing, they are far from out of this.

Don't bet on Belgium as your dark horse. I know Canada has the ability to surprise a lot of people but that was a bad performance.
   181. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: November 23, 2022 at 04:29 PM (#6106660)
It would have been fitting for Davies to score the first goal for Canada, as they have never scored a goal in the competition. Canada looked really good, and I do think they are the class of North America right now.
   182. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2022 at 06:38 PM (#6106665)
Bettors were impressed with Canada. Despite the loss their odds of advancing, and even winning the group, did not go down at all. The odds were probably too low to start with, and it helps that the other group game was a draw. The rest of the group was a disappointment
   183. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 23, 2022 at 10:35 PM (#6106677)
THURSDAY SCHEDULE:

5AM Switzerland-Cameroon
8AM Uruguay-South Korea
11AM Portugal-Ghana
2PM Brazil-Serbia
   184. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 23, 2022 at 10:39 PM (#6106678)
I’m with you, of the four CONCACAF teams I think Canada has been the best in their first game despite the result. The draw in the other game really is big for them.
   185. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 24, 2022 at 11:43 AM (#6106692)
Ronaldo is such a ####. Now that he is at best a mediocre player it must be miserable to play with him. Probably wasn't so great even in the best of times.
   186. Your favorite TFTIO, me! Posted: November 24, 2022 at 11:51 AM (#6106694)
Portugal makes it very easy for me to root for Ghana, is what I'll say there. We do live in or at worst directly adjacent to "Little Portugal" so I always root for Portugal to go out early in tournaments, as the honking and shouting tends to be very subdued when they do.
   187. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 24, 2022 at 12:03 PM (#6106695)
Goals per game so far are only slightly lower than expected. The problem is that close to half the goals have come in just two blow-out games: England/Iran and Spain/Costa Rica. Add in France/Australia and the three blowouts have had 20 of the 34 goals scored so far, leaving just 14 for the other 11.5 competitive games.
   188. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 24, 2022 at 12:25 PM (#6106697)
Pretty soft penalty but I've seen softer ones for sure. Couldn't be overruled by VAR.
   189. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: November 24, 2022 at 12:42 PM (#6106698)
Thought Joao Felix was a step offside on Portugal's second. Surprised they didn't even seem to check it.
   190. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 24, 2022 at 03:11 PM (#6106700)
The Serbian wall on that Neymar free kick was only 9 yards away. Ball was hit into the top of the wall.
   191. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 24, 2022 at 03:35 PM (#6106701)
Richarlison just had the goal of the tournament so far.
   192. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 24, 2022 at 04:18 PM (#6106708)
revised betting odds after 1 group gaem
                 original             current     
             qualify   winner    qualify   winner
Group A
netherlands      87      66          96      78  
ecuador          46      13          67      19
senegal          49      16          34       3
qatar            18       5           3

Group B
england          88      69          95      83
usa              47      14          49       9
wales            44      13          42       8
iran             21       4          12 

Group C
argentina        90      69          65      39
saudi arabia     10       2          49      22
mexico           51      15          44      20
poland           49      14          42      19

Group D
france           90      66          96      81
denmark          71      26          66      16
tunisia          20       4          26       3
australia        19       4          12     

Group E
spain            87      49          92      76
japan            21       6          71      19
germany          85      44          35       5
costa rica        7       1           2    

Group F
belgium          84      58          85      63
croatia          65      28          54      22
morocco          29       8          36      10
canada           22       6          25       5

Group G
brazil           90      70          96      87
switzerland      49      14          63      11
serbia           43      12          37       2
cameroon         18       4           4

Group H
portugal         83      56          90      73
uruguay          68      32          60      17
south korea      25       6          35       8
ghana            24       6          15       2

Canada is the only team whose odds have gone up despite losing (slightly up, but still up). Belgium's odds have basically stayed the same despite winning.

USA/Mexico/Canada odds are all almost exactly where they were before round 1. It's all still to play for. If the US draws they will be in good shape. A Mexico draw would be fantastic for them, and would almost assure them of the next round. A Canada draw is not ideal, but would still keep them in it.
   193. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 24, 2022 at 04:49 PM (#6106709)
Revised betting odds for trophy
            original     current

brazil        19.5         27

france        12           12           
spain          9.5         12
england        9.5         11

argentina     15            9.5
portugal       5.5          6.5
netherlands    6.5          6.5

belgium        5            3.5
germany        7.5          3
denmark        2.5          2

uruguay        1.5          1.2
croatia        1.5          1
switzerland    0.5          0.7
japan          0.2          0.7
serbia         0.5          0.5
ecuador        0.25         0.4

mexico         0.3          0.3
usa            0.25         0.25
poland         0.3          0.25
senegal        0.5          0.25
morocco        0.2          0.2
wales          0.2          0.2
saudia arabia  0.05         0.2
south korea    0.2          0.2

canada         0.15         0.15
tunisia        0.1          0.1
ghana          0.15         0.1
australia      0.1          0.1
cameroon       0.2          0.1
qatar          0.15         0.04
iran           0.1          0.04
costa rica     0.05         0.02
   194. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 24, 2022 at 09:03 PM (#6106713)
FRIDAY SCHEDULE

5AM Wales-Iran
8AM Qatar-Senegal
11AM Netherlands-Ecuador
2PM USA-England
   195. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 04:54 AM (#6106722)
Wales/Iran is expected to be the closest match of the day. USA/England the least close.
   196. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 05:55 AM (#6106723)
Not the highest quality game of the tournament so far, but it was well contested and could go either way. Iran hasn't played any possession offense--they move the ball straight up the field and look to score. Have been somewhat dangerous doing that, including the offside goal.

The USA is a better team than Iran and should be able to beat them when they play, but it will not be easy. Odds currently are 50/50 for a US win. All the more reason not to lose today v England.
   197. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 06:05 AM (#6106724)
538's in-game odds are very strange. Like the betting odds, 538 had Wales as a favorite today: 44% win 31% loss, which was close to betting odds which had 45% win 30% loss. At the half, betting odds has it at Wales 36% win, 22% loss, which make sense because Wales came in as the better team. 538 bizarrely has Iran now favored to win the game 27% for Wales 28% for Iran. That is very hard to understand, since I didn't think they used in-game stats to predict the rest of the game (and even if they did, it would still be strange for 1/2 game where neither team had many chances to change their overall odds so much).
   198. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 06:48 AM (#6106725)
That red card was half DOGSO half serious foul. Hard to say overall it was not earned.
   199. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 07:04 AM (#6106726)
Iran was far superior to Wales this second half. They deserved to win.

Iran's odds in the last game have gone up, in part because they have more to play for, and in part because people's perception of them likely has improved. US odds of a win against Iran now 46%.

If England beats the USA, they will have effectively clinched first in the group, but if it's a narrow win they could still have some minor risk of finishing second on GD. Either way, it won't be a situation where they have absolutely nothing to play for against Wales, so I'd be shocked if Wales can get the upset. What that means is that unless the USA pulls the shock win today, whether the USA draws or loses probably doesn't matter much. Beat Iran on the last day and they advance. That's all they could have hoped for coming in to the tournament.
   200. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 25, 2022 at 07:07 AM (#6106727)
Good result for USA. Now if they beat Iran they're almost certainly through, regardless of what happens against England.

I think the defenders had the keeper covered so it wasn't DOGSO for me, but the foul itself was clearly red.
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