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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Sunday, November 13, 2022OT - World Cup ThreadGroup A - Sunday/Monday/Friday/Tuesday Group B - Monday/Friday/Tuesday Group C - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday Group D - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday Group E - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday Group F - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday Group G - Thursday/Monday/Friday Group H - Thursday/Monday/Friday Jose is an Absurd Sultan
Posted: November 13, 2022 at 06:35 PM | 823 comment(s)
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edit: Zimmerman might have gotten the ball even, but he came through the back and took out the man. That's a foul every day of the week.
I'll take the point. Coming into the game I would have been satisfied with that result but the way the game played out I think we could have gotten the win put away in the first half. I thought Adams was exceptional and Pulisic had a poor game. Zimmerman and Ream I thought were good with the one notable exception which I suppose is life as a center back personified.
To Voxter's question I'm fine bringing Aaronson off the bench. If I were to criticize Berhalter I feel like he waited a little too long in the second half to make adjustments either of tactics or of personnel and for that matter to have the team ready to play at the start of the second half. We let Wales back into the game. Probably need a draw on Friday with England now. That's doable.
Often when a team underperforms, and in particularly in the second half, people blame the coach (whether right or wrong). I wasn't able to watch the game closely enough to have an opinion on that.
seems like a fair draw to me.
or maybe I'm just in a good mood after my Orange won 2-nil
:)
someday, someone will invent a device that literally stops the clock during "down time" - then resumes as play does.
perhaps this magical device could even be visible to the public. that way, in the latter stages of a game, each team - and the fans - would know exactly how much time is left in the half or game.
there is a downside, of course - it becomes far more difficult to 'speed up' or 'slow down' the clock in order to benefit a preferred side.
other than that, I think it could work, gosh darn it !
I'm ambivalent about it for the same reason. I pretty much stopped watching all other sports now in large part because once the ads come on I switch away and never come back.
The odds you posted on the previous page had the US and Wales almost exactly even (47-44 to the US) in likelihood of advancing. I wouldn’t expect the odds to move in any kind of way that was meaningful. I’m not sure why the US would go up rather than down but I’d assume it’s within some kind of margin of error either way.
I do think the US was the better team overall. Wales were definitely better in the second half but I think the US were better by a greater margin in the first half. While they had a couple of chances I didn’t feel like Wales was creating much even with the pressure.
Something else we haven’t touched on is that Turner did a good job on the PK. He went the right way and got a hand to it but Bale just put enough on it to get it through.
All other things being equal, their odds should have fallen slightly v Wales with this draw. The opposite seems to have occurred. The US odds have gone up, or at least stayed the same, while the odds for Wales have definitely gone down. The only explanation I can really think of is that bettors were very unimpressed with Wales today.
current odds to advance: US about 50%, Wales, about 41% (Iran 14%, England 95%)
Of course the US has never lost to England in the World Cup nor have they ever lost a World Cup game played in the Middle East or in November so that’s a good sign and certainly statistically meaningful.
Now as I said, I may have missed a few spots and there’s a lot of noise in this small sample. But I figured it was worth checking out. What strikes me is it doesn’t seem like teams completely take the foot off the gas. Obviously England can’t go into that game and sleep walk, if they lose Wales wins the group and presumably they’d rather play Senegal/Ecuador rather than presumptive Group A winner Netherlands. Also as related to the specific situation here I think England will have a bit of extra motivation against Wales as there is some kind of rivalry there.
Obviously I’d rather not have to put my eggs in this particular basket. Getting something out of the game Friday would be huge. If the US does that they become huge favorites to advance as a win over Iran probably does the trick even with a draw. The only way that doesn’t happen is if Wales just demolishes Iran. Iran are kind of a shambles right now and some big numbers against them are doable but based on what I saw today I think it’s 50-50 at worst as to which of the US or Wales is more likely to get the bigger GD against Iran.
I think this is similar to the US-Germany game in 2014. The situation was basically what we would be seeing here and Germany still won though the US kept it close enough to get through as Portugal couldn’t put the hammer down on Ghana who were a similar mess to Iran.
Tl;dr I don’t think we should assume Wales will get anything from England even if England are already through.
2006:
Germany. - win
England - draw
Portugal-win
Brazil-win
Spain-win
2010:
Uruguay-win
Argentina-win
Netherlands-win
Paraguay-draw
Brazil-draw
2014:
Netherlands-win
Costa Rica-draw
France-draw
Argentina-win
Germany-win
Belgium-win
2018:
France-draw
Argentina-win
Belgium-win
5AM Argentina-Saudi Arabia
8AM Denmark-Tunisia
11AM Mexico-Poland
2PM France-Australia
England is currently 65% to beat Wales, which does not seem to be pricing in any discount, or at least not much, for England beating the US next round.
Aunt Bea, I appreciate that. but I think at this point, the cure is better than the disease.
and if not being bored by commercial breaks is an issue, then as I have often noted, just fall 5-10 minutes behind the "action" at times - and catch up at other times. the latter allows for some live social media interaction, which is usually the argument against my point. but, well, we can't have everything.
I watched the end of a college football game live on Saturday (Ohio State-Maryland) and - never again. I think there were 3 plays run in real-time 10 minutes. ridiculous. next time I'll spend 8 minutes doing something productive (like posting inanity on BBTF) rather than sit hostage to commercials.
If FIFA really does stick to its guns and include back in the clock every second wasted for time wasting, maybe players will start playing soccer at the end of games and we won't have to stop the clock officially and bring in ads. I'll believe it when I see it.
I truly appreciate the candor.
let's fix the clock first.
then, next up - suspending players for comical "OW, I've just been shot by a sniper!" collapses that happen to end the moment the duped official hands out a yellow card. another easy fix.
just because American sports timing tends to be overly anal-retentive does not mean that a different approach doesn't also suck as much - or more. both things can be true.
Already clinched teams never lost!
Records against category of opponent:
6 wins, 1 draw against teams needing a win
2 wins, 3 draws against teams needing a draw, and all 5 of those 2nd placed teams advanced in second!
1 win, 1 draw against eliminated teams
Part of that middle group above is sleepy games against teams that only need a draw who are not pushing hard for the win. That is where England/Wales will be if England beats the US and Wales beats Iran. Both teams that lost (2006 Mexico and 2014 Nigeria) advanced anyway, and were never in real danger of going out as the other group games were going their way. Mexico started the game with a big GD edge on Angola, and after the 23rd minute Nigeria had a 2+ goal gap over Iran.
Out of the 5 games, only England/Sweden had any goals after the 50th minute. 2018 France/Denmark and 2010 Brazil/Portugal were 0-0.
You have to go back to 2002 to find a case where a team needing a draw failed to advance against an opponent who had already clinched. It happened twice! South Africa v Spain and Costa Rica v Brazil.
2006:
England - draw (Sweden needed a draw)
Portugal - win (Mexico needed a draw)
Brazil - win (Japan needed a win)
Spain - win (Saudi Arabia needed a win)
2010:
Argentina - win (Greece needed to win)
Netherlands - win (Cameroon was eliminated)
Brazil - draw (Portugal needed a draw)
2014:
Colombia - win (Japan needed a win)
Costa Rica - draw (England was eliminated)
France - draw (Ecuador needed a win) France had not actually clinched, but would have had to lose by 4+ goals
Argentina - win (Nigeria needed a draw)
Belgium - win (South Korea needed a win)
2018:
France- draw (Denmark needed a draw)
Croatia - win (Iceland needed a win, and Croatia got their own winner very late when Iceland was pushing to win)
2018 - Belgium v England both teams had already qualified.
2014 - Netherlands v Chile both teams had already qualified
2014 - Germany v USA - Germany had not clinched
2010 - Uruguay v Mexico neither team had clinched, and GD for both was similar
2010 - Paraguay had not clinched
2006 - Germany v Ecuador both had clinched
If the US loses, then if Wales beats Iran Group B will have the scenario where Wales just needs a draw, described in the post immediately above. If Wales only draws Iran, Group B will be the scenario described in this post. Both seem far from ideal for the USA.
This is still a very small sample size, but it does align somewhat with intuition.
eloratings.net has this as tied for the biggest elo swing in any international game ever, with USA/England in 1950. They have bigger swings for some 2-goal upsets but that's a function of elo.
WC 10 most notable upsets by elo
1934 - Sweden 3 - 2 Argentina
1950 - USA 1 - 0 England
1950 - Uruguay 2 - 1 Brazil
1982 - Algeria 2 - 1 West Germany
1998 - Nigeria 3 - 2 Spain
2002 - Senegal 1 - 0 France
2006 - Ghana 2 - 0 Czech Republic
2010 - Switzerland 1 - 0 Spain
2018 - South Korea 2 - 0 Germany
2022 - Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Argentina
edit: also it was a much bigger result in that it was the third group game and sent Italy home. That raises the stakes enormously versus a game like the one today, even if it does not affect ELO.
Denmark is not yet at any risk of not advancing, but have little chance of winning the group now. It's unclear whether finishing second in the group will turn out to be a disadvantage. The Group C winner is wide open now, but Argentina is still favorite.
It's like they still are pretending not to understand the purpose of rule for the linesperson leaving the flag down, because they find it just so offensive that the game has to be called back for an offside a few seconds later.
SoccerRoos up 1-0 on France!
80+ minutes to go, but a really nice inside move by Leckie, great cross, and Goodwin fires it home.
He should have gone off holding his jockstrap, because he got deked right out of it.)
France respond quickly (and easily) and take it all back and more. 2-1 France, Giroud his 50th goal in national kit.
They both viewed the Saudi Arabia game as a must win regardless, and nothing has changed with Argentina losing the first game.
I will keep the home fires burning for a crazy result like Greece 2004.
Italy had a normal rating (for them) at the time of the North Korea game in 1966.
The draw today helps Canada a lot. Even with a loss against Belgium they will still have a good chance to advance. They will need to beat somebody though, and they have the same problem as the USA in the Croatia plays Belgium last. A loss to Belgium followed by a draw to Croatia would likely put them at a structural disadvantage going into the last game.
5AM - Morocco-Croatia
8AM - Germany-Japan
11AM - Spain-Costa Rica
2PM - Belgium-Canada
Let's just pretend I put this up last night.
It's because of all the draws. USA/Wales, Mexico/Poland, Denmark/Tunisia, Croatia/Morocco were all 2 v 3 matchups and all ended in draws. We have another one of these 2 v 3 matchups tomorrow with Uruguay taking on South Korea.
It's crazy that 6 of the 8 groups have the 2 v 3 matchup in the first game, since the order was done by random draw. It does partly explain why we have so many draws already.
The last two 2 v 3s are Ecuador/Senegal and Serbia/Switzerland, both in the last game.
(Why all the focus on 2 v 3? If the game doesn't end in a draw it determines which 4 teams advance probably close to 90% of the time.)
edit: and now that I am thinking about it--having the 2v3 game in the first round will probably tend to lead to more cautious play as neither team wants to lose and believes they can make it up in the other games. If the 2v3 game is on the last day one of the teams likely knows it needs to win and we don't get a stagnant game.
The good news is that Spain/Germany matchup just got a whole lot more spicy. It's after the Japan/Costa Rica game, so if Japan wins that one it will really be game on. If Japan can't beat Costa Rica you might see a situation where both Spain and Germany end up playing more cautiously and settle for the draw.
I think the lesson is to not go up 1:0 by penalty.
Speaking of penalties, apparently Japan had a penalty appeal late in the game. I say apparently, because it was never shown here. They were too busy showing super-slow-mo shots of Japanese fans celebrating, while the commentators were getting all excited. Then 2 mins later, when they were showing the replay, they aborted it to go back to the action, and never went back to it. Just horrifically awful TV direction.
Saudi Arabia scored two goals on like 0.1 xG in the second half, which was horrendously fortunate. On the other hand they played a great defensive second half.
Japan was the opposite. They had 1.4 xG and two goals was only somewhat fortunate based on their offensive display in the second half. They were super leaky at the other end though, and were hugely fortunate that Germany didn't score on them again.
Overall Argentina got the shorter end of the stick on these losses. Germany gave up too much in the back to ever be assured of a win or even a draw. Argentina should have done more offensively but if they give up that little on any other day they would almost never lose.
I wouldn't give too much credit for plays where the offensive player is more than a yard offside though. That's often created intentionally through good defensive play and positioning.
edit: in prior years they played stingy and nasty, which worked somewhat well in this type of tournament. They weren't even good enough to do that very well at the qualifying stages, and were lucky to finish 4th in concacaf, and even luckier to draw new zealand.
Now to really spice things up we need Brazil to lose tomorrow and Switzerland to win, which potentially means Brazil would be out with a loss against the Swiss in the 2nd game. Embrace the chaos.
Surely Germany could still advance on GD if Japan then beat Spain. I mean, it's looking extremely unlikely, but still possible.
But, hey, beat Spain and suddenly the world's your oyster, and it's possible it's Spain grasping for a result in the last game.
On the other hand, even if Germany beats Spain they might need to score a lot of goals against Costa Rica to advance. That's never a guarantee.
Don't bet on Belgium as your dark horse. I know Canada has the ability to surprise a lot of people but that was a bad performance.
5AM Switzerland-Cameroon
8AM Uruguay-South Korea
11AM Portugal-Ghana
2PM Brazil-Serbia
Canada is the only team whose odds have gone up despite losing (slightly up, but still up). Belgium's odds have basically stayed the same despite winning.
USA/Mexico/Canada odds are all almost exactly where they were before round 1. It's all still to play for. If the US draws they will be in good shape. A Mexico draw would be fantastic for them, and would almost assure them of the next round. A Canada draw is not ideal, but would still keep them in it.
5AM Wales-Iran
8AM Qatar-Senegal
11AM Netherlands-Ecuador
2PM USA-England
The USA is a better team than Iran and should be able to beat them when they play, but it will not be easy. Odds currently are 50/50 for a US win. All the more reason not to lose today v England.
Iran's odds in the last game have gone up, in part because they have more to play for, and in part because people's perception of them likely has improved. US odds of a win against Iran now 46%.
If England beats the USA, they will have effectively clinched first in the group, but if it's a narrow win they could still have some minor risk of finishing second on GD. Either way, it won't be a situation where they have absolutely nothing to play for against Wales, so I'd be shocked if Wales can get the upset. What that means is that unless the USA pulls the shock win today, whether the USA draws or loses probably doesn't matter much. Beat Iran on the last day and they advance. That's all they could have hoped for coming in to the tournament.
I think the defenders had the keeper covered so it wasn't DOGSO for me, but the foul itself was clearly red.
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