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Sunday, November 13, 2022

OT - World Cup Thread

Group A - Sunday/Monday/Friday/Tuesday
Z-Qatar 0-0-3 -6
Z-Ecuador 1-1-1 +1
Y-Senegal 2-0-1 1
X-Netherlands 2-1-0 +4

Group B - Monday/Friday/Tuesday
X-England 2-1-0 +7
Z-Iran 1-0-2 -3
Y-UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!!!!! (All games 2PM) 1-2-0 +1
Z-Wales 0-1-2 -5

Group C - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday
X-Argentina 2-0-1 +3
Z-Saudi Arabia 1-1-1-2
Z-Mexico 1-1-1 -1
Y-Poland 1-2-0 0

Group D - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday
X-France 2-0-1 +3
Y-Australia 2-0-1 -1
Z-Denmark 0-1-2 -2
Z-Tunisia 1-1-1 0

Group E - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday
Y-Spain 1-1-1 +6
Z-Costa Rica 1-0-2 -8
Z-Germany 1-1-1 +1
X-Japan 2-0-1 +1

Group F - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday
Z-Belgium 1-1-1 -1
Z-Canada 0-0-3 -5
X-Morocco 2-1-0 +3
Y-Croatia 1-2-0 +3

Group G - Thursday/Monday/Friday
Y-Brazil 2-0-0+3
Serbia 0-1-1 -2
Switzerland 1-0-1 0
Cameroon 0-1-1 -1

Group H - Thursday/Monday/Friday
Y-Portugal 2-0-0 +3
Ghana 1-0-1 0
Uruguay 0-1-1 -2
South Korea 0-1-1 -1

X won group
Y advanced
Z eliminated

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 13, 2022 at 06:35 PM | 823 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off topic, soccer

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201. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 07:39 AM (#6106728)

The USA's odds have gone up, but only very slightly. I think their odds were too high based before this last game on the group structure, and the result today is very helpful as now they don't have to worry about that anymore.

202. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 08:33 AM (#6106729)

One defender had the goalkeeper half covered. That's more dangerous than a normal DOGSO where the keeper is the only defender, but fully available to try to block a shot.

203. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 08:42 AM (#6106730)

Actually any win by England today gives England a 7 goal differential edge on Iran. Factoring in an Iran win and England loss in the last game, there's still a 5 goal swing that would be required. That pretty much means England has won first in the group with a win today, in every way except mathematical certainty.

It's still not the same as actually having clinched, but I suppose with such an edge it would make that Wales game a bit of a wildcard.

204. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 08:44 AM (#6106731)

Ecuador/Senegal is very likely to come down to GD. That means Senegal needs to try to score more today. They can't expect Ecuador to lose by 3 goals.

205. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 09:00 AM (#6106732)

The Qatari player deviated from his line, intentionally jumping in front of the defender and slowing down to create body contact. Maybe it should still have been a penalty, but I can understand why it was not given.

206. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 09:12 AM (#6106734)

One thing that is not good about the Iran win today is now Iran knows most likely they will only need a draw to advance (assuming the USA does not beat England). If Iran had needed a win, or were already eliminated, they might have been easier to get a win against. Now they will happily sit back and play off the counter, which is the way they want to play anyway.

Yes, Iran could still need a win to advance, but they can play possum until at least halftime now (which they may have wanted to do anyway), and wait to see the score in the England/Wales game. If England is ahead they will know a draw is very, very likely to be enough.

207. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 09:42 AM (#6106735)

Qatar has looked much better today against Senegal. Still down 0-2 and the game is not over yet though. The offensive performance is likely partly a testament to the way Ecuador plays defense--they can be quite difficult to create against. Thought, their CONMEBL excellent defensive record is partly a result of their home games at altitude. On the road they are still good but not necessarily more stingy than the other teams like Uruguay and Colombia.

When they qualified for the world cup in 2014, Ecuador only gave up 3 goals at home in 9 games. On the road they were good but nothing special. The same was mostly true this year, with 7 goals given up but 3 of these were in blowout wins after they were already up by 4 goals (and even then, all 3 were penalties).

208. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 11:06 AM (#6106738)

Gab/Juls show again buying into the outdated Switzerland soccer stereotype as grinding out 1-0 wins and playing negative soccer. 538 has them as a slightly better than average offensive team in this tournament, and slightly below average defensive team. The game itself had an above average number of goal chances, with xG 1.9-0.9, and above average aggregate xG for the first round of games. In the last world cup Switzerland advanced despite giving up 4 goals in 3 games, and in Euro 2020 they gave up 5 goals and 3 games (and got eliminated). They gave up at least one goal in all 6 of those games.

209. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 11:44 AM (#6106739)

Why does it not surprise me that Wesley Schneider looks like he has gained 50 pounds since his playing days. He's 38 by the way.

210. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 11:53 AM (#6106740)

Ecuador outplayed the Netherlands in that half, and deserved that equalizer. Oh well. The Netherlands only had the one shot for the goal.

Ecuador will have to believe they can come back for the draw in the second half, which would make the final group games very interesting. Even if this scoreline holds up Ecuador will just need a draw to advance over Senegal on GD. If the Netherlands scores again to make it 2-0 you should really see Ecuador open it up as at that point they have essentially nothing to lose by giving up a 3rd goal.

211. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 12:00 PM (#6106741)

Ecuador's 1.5 games so far have featured a total of 17 shots and about 1.8 xG. Probably won't last like this through the second half, but still quite something so far.

They actually looked fairly lively this half, so today's 0.23 xG by Ecuador so far undersells the action a bit.

212. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 12:15 PM (#6106742)

Well. Now it really truly is game on. Senegal's chance of advancing just dropped a lot

The Netherlands would still basically be considered a lock to advance, except considering their play so far today you have to wonder a bit. First in the group is certainly at risk.

213. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 12:45 PM (#6106744)

Based on this performance, the USMNT should be licking their chops for a chance to face the Netherlands in the KOs.

214. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 12:52 PM (#6106745)

Announcers praising Ecuador for "taking up minutes" to get to the end of the game. Why the hell would Ecuador want to do that? A 1-1 draw is not that much better than a 1-2 loss, and a 2-1 win is way, way better. More importantly, they are beating Netherlands badly at both ends of the field and midfield as well, and I'm sure they are well aware of that. They should want to make use of every available moment.

With Enner Valencia out though now, I'm not sure if it still applies.

215. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 01:03 PM (#6106746)

Just two shots for the Netherlands, for 0.09 xG. They were bad when they were ahead, and just as bad when the game was level. That was an awful performance, worse than Belgium against Canada.

Has there ever been a WC winner that was severely ouplayed by a middle-of-the-pack team? I'm not talking about a team that happened to lose, like Argentina or Germany this year, but a team that was beaten badly all over the field regardless of whether or not they won (outside of a game where they have already clinched a spot in the next round). Not surprisingly, the Netherlands betting odds' of winning the trophy have decreased after this game, despite their odds of advancing and winning the group going up (or, for winning the group at least not going down).

Also not a good result for Senegal. Their odds of advancing have gone down after Round 1. They will need to beat Ecuador to advance unless something crazy happens in the other game. Should be a fun one, but we might see a fairly defensive Ecuador unless they go behind.

Qatar is eliminated just 6 days into the tournament. I believe that's the quickest (measured in days) since they expanded the world cup to 24 teams, and maybe the quickest in 50 years or more. Before that many teams played within 5 days, so someone probably got eliminated earlier. In recent years the second round of Group A games finished on the 7th day of the tournament, so getting eliminated on the 6th day was not actually possible. This year the schedule is more condensed since it is in the winter.

216. Textbook Editor Posted: November 25, 2022 at 01:24 PM (#6106747)

Interesting. England with same XI, which means a 4-3-3. There was some speculation that they'd go to the 3-4-3 against "better" teams, and if they don't use it against USA, it seems unlikely they'd use it against Wales, which means if they did trot it out for the KOs they'd be playing it for the first time in the tournament in a KO game, which seems a bit risky.

All that said, it's quite probable that the best defense for England is a good offense, and certainly the 4-3-3 lends itself to that way more than the 3-4-3.

217. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 25, 2022 at 01:53 PM (#6106748)

I didn't see the game, but the Dutch have 4 points after two matches. They're quite likely to advance. And my instinct is always to be careful about reading too much into one match. Sometimes Brentford just beats Man City at home one day.

218. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 25, 2022 at 01:55 PM (#6106749)

I'm not expecting much from the US here, really. I think this England team is wildly underrated by its long-suffering fans and attendant Anglophone media.

219. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 25, 2022 at 01:59 PM (#6106750)

Qatar is eliminated just 6 days into the tournament.

Couldn't have happened to a more deserving country.

220. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 01:59 PM (#6106751)

It's not that the Netherlands drew, it's the way it happened. Man City has never looked like that in any game under Pep. They were awful--they could play 100 games like that and I'd be surprised if they won a single one of them. They were incredibly lucky to even draw.

221. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 25, 2022 at 02:37 PM (#6106752)

England's forwards are just so much more aggressive than the US's. Mount and Saka don't dick around waiting to throw in a cross.

222. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 02:53 PM (#6106753)

That might be the best half the USA has played in a long time. We've seen England play worse, but it still was not good by them. I was worried there in the first 15 minutes, but the USA looked very good after that.

223. Pirate Joe Posted: November 25, 2022 at 02:55 PM (#6106754)

If the US can match that first half performance in the second half they could win this game.

224. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 25, 2022 at 03:06 PM (#6106755)

Pickford does not seem happy

225. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 25, 2022 at 03:10 PM (#6106756)

The refs have been extremely whistle-shy tonight.

226. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 25, 2022 at 03:41 PM (#6106757)

Shaq Moore has been profoundly unimpressive in his brief time on the pitch tonight.

227. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 03:56 PM (#6106758)

The USA easily earned their point tonight. With a little luck they would have had a famous victory. There was no second half letup like yesterday. It was a fairly uneventful half from both sides.

I'm sure the english media will have a lot of questions over this one! Let's enjoy it until the Iran game.

edit: and this is a game I can potentially forgive England for, despite them being much less than impressive. Netherlands this morning no.

228. Textbook Editor Posted: November 25, 2022 at 04:00 PM (#6106760)

England were pitiful. If Henderson is the answer you're certainly asking the wrong question.

The point is basically meaningless to the USA. They still need to beat Iran. Somewhat surprised USA didn't go at England's back line more--the game was definitely there to be won.

It would be hysterical for Iran to finish top of the group--and they very well could!

229. Russlan is not Russian Posted: November 25, 2022 at 04:06 PM (#6106761)

Couldn't have happened to a more deserving country.

It is really terrible how the Qatari army invaded a country under false pretense and killed hundreds of thousands of people.

The fact that this comment was made on the same day that the USA and England played against each other is incredible. It is really showing a lot of self-awareness.

230. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 25, 2022 at 04:12 PM (#6106762)

It is really terrible how the Qatari army invaded a country under false pretense and killed hundreds and thousands of people.

The fact that this comment was made on the same day that the USA and England played against each other is incredible. It is really showing a lot of self-awareness.

231. jmurph Posted: November 25, 2022 at 04:39 PM (#6106763)

Southgate preferring Mount to Foden is just bonkers.

It's not like it's some tactical thing where you think one is better than the other at the thing you want to do in this particular game, they do the same things, Foden is just clearly better at them.

232. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 25, 2022 at 05:48 PM (#6106767)

I was thrilled with the US performance. Really up and down the roster the guys did a great job. Moore wasn’t great after coming on and I thought Weah looked a bit off but that’s a nitpick. Pulisic was really good on corners, we needed to be more aggressive on those.

For the criticism of Bergalter he deserves credit for his choice of Turner as his number one. He was excellent today. Not a lot to do on shot stopping save the Mount chance but he was fantastic on crosses I thought. Going in needing the win on Tuesday is where I think we expected to be when the draw came out. I’ll take that.

233. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 06:21 PM (#6106768)

England's performance against the US was certainly worse than Germany's performance against Japan. The consequences were night and day though. England's draw makes them essentially assured of the next round (they'd have to lose by 4 to Wales to be eliminated) while Germany's loss put them on life support.

edit: and even though England has basically clinched a spot and their odds of winning the group are essentially the same as they were before today, their odds of winning the trophy have gone down. Bettors were not exactly impressed.

234. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2022 at 06:35 PM (#6106771)

Great day for the USA on the field by quality of play, but their odds of advancing from the group haven't changed at all. Still right around 50/50. Same as before the group stage, and same as after the draw with Wales. Their odds of winning the group are up slightly from yesterday, but still down from where they were before the group stage. (Theor odds of winning the trophy went up the tiniest bit, but are still very small.)

It's all STILL to play for. Should be a fun one Tuesday.

235. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 25, 2022 at 08:32 PM (#6106789)

SATURDAY SCHEDULE

5AM Tunisia-Australia
8AM Poland-Saudi Arabia
11AM France-Denmark
2PM Argentina-Mexico

236. Textbook Editor Posted: November 25, 2022 at 10:21 PM (#6106809)

Saudi Arabia could qualify tomorrow with a win and an Argentina loss. That’s a hell of a thing.

I think America played well but England played so poorly it’s hard to know what to think of what it all means going forward. That USA couldn’t break down England doesn’t bode well for an Iran team that knows all it needs is a draw to go through (assuming Wales draws or loses to England). The bus will be parked early in that one.

237. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2022 at 04:20 AM (#6106827)

Betting odds of at least one of those two happening: 30%

238. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2022 at 08:43 AM (#6106829)

Saudi Arabia made Poland look bad for 30 minutes, but Poland leading now finally. Despite Saudi Arabia's good play early they could only manage a single shot.

239. spivey Posted: November 26, 2022 at 09:23 AM (#6106830)

England was playing for a draw because a draw means they advance and almost certainly finish top of group, so it's important to consider that. But I think it was a reasonable matchup for the US because our one strong trait is athleticism and tenacity in the middle of the pitch, and the way England sets up can leave them outmanned there.

Maguire was very good, it must be said. Mason Mount keeping Foden out of the squad is certainly a choice.

240. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2022 at 09:52 AM (#6106831)

That second goal could easily end up being huge for Poland. This group has a high chance of ending up decided on goal differential, so that goal really helps Poland and hurts Saudi Arabia.

241. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2022 at 11:32 AM (#6106833)

Denmark is in the same position the USA was in yesterday, but they are a better team with a weaker opponent in Australia. Even a loss and they would still be strongly favored to advance.

edit: and likewise, all France truly needs today is a draw. A win is better though, just like it was for England. I don't believe either France or England started off the game looking for a draw. Maybe England settled for a draw earlier than they needed to and/or didn't really open it up, but even if all that is true it was still a bad performance, and reflects somewhat poorly on their ability to win the tournament.

242. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2022 at 01:20 PM (#6106837)

Aside from one 10-minute stretch where Denmark finally came alive (and could even have taken the lead!), this game was all France. They look very strong. Argentina will probably have to beat both Mexico and Poland to avoid France in the first round.

France becomes the first team to qualify for the KOs. France hasn't technically won the group, but they would need a massive goal turnaround by teams that are huge underdogs (Australia and Tunisia). There is no chance that will happen.

Denmark is almost 65% to win their game against Australia, which would almost certainly put them in. Tunisia would probably need to win by a better GD than Denmark to win the tie breaker.

243. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2022 at 02:46 PM (#6106848)

Almost no shots so far in the game for either team. That's a big win for Mexico, who haven't been sitting back in any real way. A draw would give Mexico a great chance to win the group and avoid France.

edit: and Argentina seems quite underwhelming to this point. Very little idea of what to do on offense. Tons of possession but little danger and I can't remember any quick transition offense.

244. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2022 at 03:00 PM (#6106850)

We must be setting some kind of record for scoreless first halves at a world cup. A full half the games played so far (12 of 24) have featured 0-0 first halves. 19 first half goals in the first 24 games is also very low, but is probably not be a record. 1990 apparently had very low first half scoring as well--I think 34 in 52 games total. It was also the lowest scoring world cup ever.

edit: that 1990 world cup was super low scoring, but only had 5 0-0 games. We've already had 5 in 23 games this year.
edit: 2006 and 2010 world cups I think had 7 0-0 draws each. Both were also very low scoring.

245. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2022 at 03:50 PM (#6106868)

Ochoa didn't look very good on either of those goals today. He saved them against Poland but not so much today. 2-0 puts Mexico on life support. They might need to put up a big number against Saudi Arabia. Poland will be playing for the stodgy draw against Argentina, who likely can't afford to lose. It could be very interesting or potentially very dull.

246. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2022 at 04:00 PM (#6106870)

I think that game might have set a world cup record for least number of shots: 9. xG was super low too. The two goals by Argentina were low expectation chance, both excellent shots, but both of which might have been saved on another day.

247. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 26, 2022 at 09:14 PM (#6106900)

Ochoa didn't look very good on either of those goals today.

Ochoa was once a great keeper who never got a fair shake in Europe, as far as I'm concerned. But he's 37 and it shows. The reflexes aren't what they once were.

248. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 26, 2022 at 09:52 PM (#6106907)

SUNDAY SCHEDULE

5AM Japan-Costa Rica
8AM Belgium-Morocco
11AM Croatia-Canada
2PM Spain-Germany

249. Textbook Editor Posted: November 26, 2022 at 10:29 PM (#6106916)

Germany isn’t out with a loss unless Japan wins but their path is on life support.

Have to say I’ve enjoyed the Telemundo coverage. I don’t understand 90% of what is said but at least it isn’t Fox. What’s been nice is being utterly aloof of anything the pundits say.

250. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2022 at 11:01 PM (#6106922)

Germany is out with a loss unless Costa Rica beats Japan. The odds are saying that's 10% only. Germany is not out with a draw no matter what, because technically they could catch Spain, but that's highly unlikely (approximately 0.5%, is my guess even if Germany/Spain draw). More likely, Japan would have to fail to win, but their odds of beating Costa Rica are high: 68%.

Anyway, Germany will know the result of the Japan game by the time they kick off, so will know if they absolutely need to beat Spain or if they can play for the draw if things aren't going their way.

A Japan draw and a Spain draw this round puts Germany going out if those two teams draw each other on the last day or Japan wins. Germany would have to root for Spain to beat Japan (which admittedly is pretty likely).

251. Russlan is not Russian Posted: November 27, 2022 at 12:28 AM (#6106929)

Did you know that it is possible for a current evil regime to weigh more heavily on one's considerations than history? It's true!

If you're looking for a lack of self-awareness, you might want to look in the mirror, bucko.

The Qatari regime is run by corrupt oligarchs who use the wealth from their country's natural resources for vanity projects, they've spent hundreds of billions of dollars for sports tournament instead of doing something that really matters. They are run of the mill tyrants.

But the US government has done and continues to do evil that the Qataris can't come close to.

I am not going to post anything more about politics.

252. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 27, 2022 at 01:48 AM (#6106933)

But the US government has done and continues to do evil that the Qataris can't come close to.

Like convince it's football fans that their team is exciting and passing the ball back and forth between your defenders, before the inevitable back pass to the keeper as opposed to counter attacking at full pace is a sound strategy?

That is a crime foisted upon an unsuspecting public.

253. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2022 at 05:52 AM (#6106935)

Another 0-0 first half. That's number 13.

I don't understand what Japan is doing today. They aren't even really trying to score. They also did nothing in the first half against Germany, but that was in an attempt to shorten the game, so it made sense for them as the weaker team. Japan just made it a lot easier for Costa Rica to get a draw.

Japan will still probably win (and the odds think so too, at 55%), but why make it harder for yourself. It's not like Costa Rica is a decent team that just had a bad game against Spain. They are not a good team at all.

254. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2022 at 06:40 AM (#6106936)

Honestly, Japan deserve that after not playing soccer for the first 45 minutes. They looked somewhat dangerous in the second half but pressure was mounting as they had not scored yet, leading to their own mistakes.

255. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2022 at 06:57 AM (#6106937)

I'll never understand it when the significantly better team shortens the game. Japan paid the price today. Now a draw by Germany will very likely be enough for them after all, and they are not even out with a loss.

256. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: November 27, 2022 at 06:59 AM (#6106938)

I blame AuntBea for this, for all his badmouthing of Costa Rica.

257. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2022 at 07:12 AM (#6106939)

Costa Rica has just 4 shots over 2 games now. That must be a record.

258. Thok Posted: November 27, 2022 at 07:13 AM (#6106940)

At this point Qatar is the favorite to finish last in the World Cup.

259. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2022 at 08:50 AM (#6106942)

Too bad. Offside was the right call there. The keeper absolutely has to play the man too if he is also that much a part of the play.

Yet another scoreless first half. That's 14 now.

260. spivey Posted: November 27, 2022 at 09:22 AM (#6106943)

Belgium's starting 11 is way off where they used to be. IMO they are well past their contender status of the last several years, and they don't even look like the best team in this group from what I've seen. They do have Courtois though, who is just absolutely incredible.

261. spivey Posted: November 27, 2022 at 09:24 AM (#6106944)

Morocco looks faster, scrappier, and more technical.

262. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2022 at 09:24 AM (#6106945)

Yeah Belgium has been going downhill for a while. They have gotten enough results to keep their FIFA and elo ratings high, but they are not very good anymore.

263. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2022 at 09:35 AM (#6106946)

That was bad by Courtois. A gift to Morocco.

264. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2022 at 09:54 AM (#6106948)

That second goal makes things a lot harder for Canada on tie breakers. And Belgium too, naturally.

265. Russlan is not Russian Posted: November 27, 2022 at 10:46 AM (#6106951)

What a horrible result for Japan. Disastrous. They did the hard thing they needed to do to advance, (beating either Germany or Spain). To lose to Costa Rica after doing that is just disastrous.

266. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2022 at 11:06 AM (#6106952)

I missed the first 3 minutes and Canada has already scored?

267. Snowboy Posted: November 27, 2022 at 11:17 AM (#6106954)

GOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAALLLLLLLL eh!

268. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: November 27, 2022 at 11:18 AM (#6106955)

I take the citizenship oath to King Chuckles on Friday, so I'm pretty stoked to see Davies do well there. Good omen.

269. spivey Posted: November 27, 2022 at 11:24 AM (#6106956)

Alfonso Davies is so ####### good. Think you could reasonably argue he's a top 5 player in the world. He's definitely the best LB in the world.

270. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: November 27, 2022 at 11:34 AM (#6106957)

I was at the US/CAN CONCACAF match when Canada finally got off the schneid and dudes were just bouncing off of him. He was so obviously the best player on the pitch then, and that was three years ago.

271. spivey Posted: November 27, 2022 at 11:40 AM (#6106958)

Canada's back line are making absurd tackle attempts when Croatia is on the break. They better score again because this defense is awful.

272. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2022 at 11:43 AM (#6106959)

They just need to get to halftime right now. They don't have any shots except their goal, and they are looking stretched at the other end.

edit: so much for that. I'm not liking Canada's chances right now at all. They need to figure something out. The good news is that if they can manage a draw today they still have a decent shot at advancing from the group, but it would likely require a 2-goal win over Morocco.

273. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: November 27, 2022 at 11:46 AM (#6106960)

That was gruesome.

274. spivey Posted: November 27, 2022 at 11:50 AM (#6106962)

Canada just seems completely unable to pass or retain the ball the last 20 minutes. They look more athletic, they need to play more longballs imo.

275. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2022 at 12:34 PM (#6106963)

Well it was fun while it lasted. If Canada had just even drawn Belgium they would be playing Morocco for a spot in the KOs.

While Canada is done, they can still play spoiler. If they beat Morocco by even a single goal Morocco could go out, depending on the result in the other game.

276. spivey Posted: November 27, 2022 at 02:26 PM (#6106966)

This match feels like the closest to a club match I've seen. Very strong coaches on both sides who play more "club style" football, with a lot of players very familiar with each other.

277. spivey Posted: November 27, 2022 at 02:36 PM (#6106967)

If Ferran Torres had a nickel for every goal he scored, he'd have about 8 nickels.

278. spivey Posted: November 27, 2022 at 03:37 PM (#6106969)

Musiala is ridiculous.

279. spivey Posted: November 27, 2022 at 03:40 PM (#6106970)

Germany have been outstanding the last 20 minutes, that goal was well deserved imo.

280. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 27, 2022 at 03:59 PM (#6106971)

Spain should have put this game away earlier. Hey were the better team for an hour fairly conclusively I thought. Can’t let Germany hang around though. That result seems right.

281. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2022 at 03:59 PM (#6106972)

Sadly I had to miss the end.

If Germany wins by 2, the only way they go out is if Japan beats Spain. Spain will have seen the result of the game earlier and may not have any incentive to finish top of the group, so could likely survive a loss putting Germany out. While that’s fairy unlikey, Germany would be wise to try to get a couple early goals so as to focus Spain’s attention on the minor risk they could pass Spain on GD.

282. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2022 at 04:36 PM (#6106973)

Also Costa Rica can still win the group, with a win and a draw in the other game. That is very unlikely. If they can pull off a miracle draw they likely advance though, so they are not totally out of it yet. By betting odds, their odds are pretty much where they were when the tournament started. Germany's and Japan's are down slightly.

Germany has no real chance to win the group now, so if they advance they face 1st in group F, with the winner of that game facing the 1H/2G winner. That's a weak quadrant in which Germany would be the favorite.

Assuming Spain wins the group their quadrant would likely have Brazil, so they may not have tons of incentive to win. They could also face Belgium in the first round.

England and France will likely end up in the same quadrant, and it could get even harder if Argentina does not beat Poland. If Argentina beats Poland, they will have an easy quadrant with the Netherlands as likely the next best team.

283. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2022 at 04:46 PM (#6106974)

There are still a lot of games left for more surprises, but for now the only real surprise in the group stage is Morocco over either Belgium or Croatia. The only way realistic way Morocco does not advance is if they lose and Belgium beats Croatia.

Iran/Australia/SaudiaArabia/SouthKorea could all still surprise (basically, all the Asian teams have surprised to this point, including Japan who gave it all back with the loss to Costa Rica!), and we could get a surprise group winner. The other ones were tossups though: USA/Ecuador/Poland/Switzerland.

Oh yeah, and yet another scoreless first half. An amazing 15 in 28 games.

284. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2022 at 05:21 PM (#6106975)

After 2 rounds of games for all the top teams, save Brazil and Portugal, the pecking order of teams has changed slightly. France has leapfrogged Argentina as expected second best, and Spain has more or less caught them for 3rd/4th. England has dropped back from a tie with Spain and are now basically level with Germany for 5th/6th. Portugal has moved ahead of Netherlands for 7th. And the Netherlands and Belgium are both falling even further back relative to the other teams.

The above makes sense based on quality of play we have seen so far. Brazil and France have been great even relative to expectations, Spain has been good, Germany ok, and Argentina and England a little weak. Belgium and the Netherlands have been bad. Portugal maybe too early to say.

It's only been a couple games and people's perception could change quite a bit with another group game, but for some of these teams (France/England/Spain) it might be hard to read too much into the last remaining group game since there is little at stake in their remaining game.

285. Russlan is not Russian Posted: November 27, 2022 at 08:36 PM (#6106983)

Both Michigan and Ohio State didn't really have strong schedules. OSU's best win is probably the victory over Penn State. After that, is it Notre Dame, a team that lost 4 games including against Stanford and Marshall?

286. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: November 27, 2022 at 10:09 PM (#6106987)

Well, to be fair, this IS a take ...

On Tuesday against Iran, we win or go home. The problem is, US sports are built around “Let’s get ’em next time”; around coming in last so you can get a draft pick; around rewarding failure. We don’t have promotion and relegation. We don’t have ownership groups who have felt the sting of an inadequate team, and thus a sting to their business. Because when your team lose, it means you’ve hired the wrong people to hire the wrong people to hire the wrong people. You lost. But in American sports, there is no sting to coming in last. So often when the USA play soccer, we don’t know how to win – we’re not used to having to win – and so we try to not lose. And we end up getting exactly what we deserve: a tie. Even if many of our players compete in leagues with promotion and relegation, that culture still permeates USA soccer.

Eric Wynalda

287. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 27, 2022 at 11:16 PM (#6106989)

Spain will have seen the result of the game earlier and may not have any incentive to finish top of the group

This is incorrect. Round 3 group stage games are always played at the same time to try to prevent teams from tanking or playing for a draw. Spain and Germany play their respective games in round 3 at the same time, just like all the other groups.

288. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 27, 2022 at 11:31 PM (#6106990)

I meant that Spain will have seen the results of the Group F games, so will know who has finished first in that group and may not have much motivation to finish first themselves, for example, if Morocco wins Group F. Regardless, it looks pretty likely that finishing second in Group E will be a little better than finishing first.

289. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 28, 2022 at 06:36 AM (#6106993)

Aboubakar with the great "I think I'm offside" finish...but he turns out to be onside and it counts!

290. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2022 at 07:59 AM (#6106995)

That was quite a game. I don't understand Serbia's defending like that with a 2-goal lead and tiebreaker likely wrapped up over Switzerland if they just didn't concede again. A 3-1 scoreline was great for them. 3-2 only ok, and 3-3 bad. At least they didn't give up a 4th.

It was fun to see Cameroon shine given space to work with.

291. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2022 at 08:32 AM (#6106996)

With that goal by Ghana, no team will now get skunked. All have at least one goal or one point (via 0-0 draws). Unless South Korea comes back to win, all teams will have at least a point other than Qatar and Canada.

292. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:03 AM (#6106999)

Well that was quite an exciting game. Ghana goal was under siege in the end from repeated crosses, but no luck for South Korea. They will need to beat Portugal and hope some of the other results go their way.

293. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:17 AM (#6107002)

Post-game announcers disappointed in South Korea, saying they just didn't have enough and implying that they were outplayed. South Korea was the better team on the day, all things told. Pundits can't see anything but the score, and it's embarrassingly lame. There's quite a bit of variation in high xG games like that one, and it didn't go South Korea's way today.

294. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2022 at 11:48 AM (#6107013)

After two wild games, we get yet another scoreless first half. That's 16 out of 31 now.

295. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 28, 2022 at 12:25 PM (#6107018)

After a fair amount of discussion around the semi-automated offside speeding things up it certainly hasn't seemed to make any difference in terms of speed of reviews.

296. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2022 at 12:43 PM (#6107021)

Switzerland is in an interesting spot here. A draw is much better than a 1-goal loss, but a 1-goal loss is a lot better than a 2-goal loss. A 2-goal loss means Serbia would advance with a draw over Switzerland (assuming Brazil does not lose to Cameroon).

Oh wait, Serbia drew Cameroon. So a 1-goal loss here is almost as bad, maybe just as bad, as a 2-gioal loss.

I take it all back. Switzerland should go for broke now. They cannot survive even a 1-goal loss next week as it stands.

297. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2022 at 12:56 PM (#6107026)

Switzerland was playing very well in the second half until the goal, after which they tried to open it up and only gave up more chance the other way. They were a bit lucky not to give up another one, but I don't think it matters at all. They are in with a draw unless Cameroon beats Brazil. Out with any loss.

298. SoSH U at work Posted: November 28, 2022 at 12:56 PM (#6107027)

I take it all back. Switzerland should go for broke now. They cannot survive even a 1-goal loss next week as it stands.

What do you mean? Unless Cameroon somehow beats Brazil, all the Swiss need to do is get a draw with Serbia.

299. jmurph Posted: November 28, 2022 at 12:59 PM (#6107030)

After a fair amount of discussion around the semi-automated offside speeding things up it certainly hasn't seemed to make any difference in terms of speed of reviews.

I continue to not understand why letting obvious offsides play on for 10 or 15 seconds before raising the flag is a thing.

300. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2022 at 01:28 PM (#6107034)

What do you mean? Unless Cameroon somehow beats Brazil, all the Swiss need to do is get a draw with Serbia.

Right, that's exactly what I meant. I was somehow originally still thinking that they were level with Brazil, which would have them at 4 points and +1 GD, which would have been enough to survive a -goal loss. Now they can't survive any loss.

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