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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Sunday, November 13, 2022OT - World Cup ThreadGroup A - Sunday/Monday/Friday/Tuesday Group B - Monday/Friday/Tuesday Group C - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday Group D - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday Group E - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday Group F - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday Group G - Thursday/Monday/Friday Group H - Thursday/Monday/Friday Jose is an Absurd Sultan
Posted: November 13, 2022 at 06:35 PM | 823 comment(s)
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It's still not the same as actually having clinched, but I suppose with such an edge it would make that Wales game a bit of a wildcard.
Yes, Iran could still need a win to advance, but they can play possum until at least halftime now (which they may have wanted to do anyway), and wait to see the score in the England/Wales game. If England is ahead they will know a draw is very, very likely to be enough.
When they qualified for the world cup in 2014, Ecuador only gave up 3 goals at home in 9 games. On the road they were good but nothing special. The same was mostly true this year, with 7 goals given up but 3 of these were in blowout wins after they were already up by 4 goals (and even then, all 3 were penalties).
Ecuador will have to believe they can come back for the draw in the second half, which would make the final group games very interesting. Even if this scoreline holds up Ecuador will just need a draw to advance over Senegal on GD. If the Netherlands scores again to make it 2-0 you should really see Ecuador open it up as at that point they have essentially nothing to lose by giving up a 3rd goal.
They actually looked fairly lively this half, so today's 0.23 xG by Ecuador so far undersells the action a bit.
The Netherlands would still basically be considered a lock to advance, except considering their play so far today you have to wonder a bit. First in the group is certainly at risk.
With Enner Valencia out though now, I'm not sure if it still applies.
Has there ever been a WC winner that was severely ouplayed by a middle-of-the-pack team? I'm not talking about a team that happened to lose, like Argentina or Germany this year, but a team that was beaten badly all over the field regardless of whether or not they won (outside of a game where they have already clinched a spot in the next round). Not surprisingly, the Netherlands betting odds' of winning the trophy have decreased after this game, despite their odds of advancing and winning the group going up (or, for winning the group at least not going down).
Also not a good result for Senegal. Their odds of advancing have gone down after Round 1. They will need to beat Ecuador to advance unless something crazy happens in the other game. Should be a fun one, but we might see a fairly defensive Ecuador unless they go behind.
Qatar is eliminated just 6 days into the tournament. I believe that's the quickest (measured in days) since they expanded the world cup to 24 teams, and maybe the quickest in 50 years or more. Before that many teams played within 5 days, so someone probably got eliminated earlier. In recent years the second round of Group A games finished on the 7th day of the tournament, so getting eliminated on the 6th day was not actually possible. This year the schedule is more condensed since it is in the winter.
All that said, it's quite probable that the best defense for England is a good offense, and certainly the 4-3-3 lends itself to that way more than the 3-4-3.
Couldn't have happened to a more deserving country.
I'm sure the english media will have a lot of questions over this one! Let's enjoy it until the Iran game.
edit: and this is a game I can potentially forgive England for, despite them being much less than impressive. Netherlands this morning no.
The point is basically meaningless to the USA. They still need to beat Iran. Somewhat surprised USA didn't go at England's back line more--the game was definitely there to be won.
It would be hysterical for Iran to finish top of the group--and they very well could!
It is really terrible how the Qatari army invaded a country under false pretense and killed hundreds of thousands of people.
The fact that this comment was made on the same day that the USA and England played against each other is incredible. It is really showing a lot of self-awareness.
Did you know that it is possible for a current evil regime to weigh more heavily on one's considerations than history? It's true!
If you're looking for a lack of self-awareness, you might want to look in the mirror, bucko.
PS go #### yourself.
It's not like it's some tactical thing where you think one is better than the other at the thing you want to do in this particular game, they do the same things, Foden is just clearly better at them.
For the criticism of Bergalter he deserves credit for his choice of Turner as his number one. He was excellent today. Not a lot to do on shot stopping save the Mount chance but he was fantastic on crosses I thought. Going in needing the win on Tuesday is where I think we expected to be when the draw came out. I’ll take that.
edit: and even though England has basically clinched a spot and their odds of winning the group are essentially the same as they were before today, their odds of winning the trophy have gone down. Bettors were not exactly impressed.
It's all STILL to play for. Should be a fun one Tuesday.
5AM Tunisia-Australia
8AM Poland-Saudi Arabia
11AM France-Denmark
2PM Argentina-Mexico
I think America played well but England played so poorly it’s hard to know what to think of what it all means going forward. That USA couldn’t break down England doesn’t bode well for an Iran team that knows all it needs is a draw to go through (assuming Wales draws or loses to England). The bus will be parked early in that one.
Maguire was very good, it must be said. Mason Mount keeping Foden out of the squad is certainly a choice.
edit: and likewise, all France truly needs today is a draw. A win is better though, just like it was for England. I don't believe either France or England started off the game looking for a draw. Maybe England settled for a draw earlier than they needed to and/or didn't really open it up, but even if all that is true it was still a bad performance, and reflects somewhat poorly on their ability to win the tournament.
France becomes the first team to qualify for the KOs. France hasn't technically won the group, but they would need a massive goal turnaround by teams that are huge underdogs (Australia and Tunisia). There is no chance that will happen.
Denmark is almost 65% to win their game against Australia, which would almost certainly put them in. Tunisia would probably need to win by a better GD than Denmark to win the tie breaker.
edit: and Argentina seems quite underwhelming to this point. Very little idea of what to do on offense. Tons of possession but little danger and I can't remember any quick transition offense.
edit: that 1990 world cup was super low scoring, but only had 5 0-0 games. We've already had 5 in 23 games this year.
edit: 2006 and 2010 world cups I think had 7 0-0 draws each. Both were also very low scoring.
Ochoa was once a great keeper who never got a fair shake in Europe, as far as I'm concerned. But he's 37 and it shows. The reflexes aren't what they once were.
5AM Japan-Costa Rica
8AM Belgium-Morocco
11AM Croatia-Canada
2PM Spain-Germany
Have to say I’ve enjoyed the Telemundo coverage. I don’t understand 90% of what is said but at least it isn’t Fox. What’s been nice is being utterly aloof of anything the pundits say.
Anyway, Germany will know the result of the Japan game by the time they kick off, so will know if they absolutely need to beat Spain or if they can play for the draw if things aren't going their way.
A Japan draw and a Spain draw this round puts Germany going out if those two teams draw each other on the last day or Japan wins. Germany would have to root for Spain to beat Japan (which admittedly is pretty likely).
If you're looking for a lack of self-awareness, you might want to look in the mirror, bucko.
The Qatari regime is run by corrupt oligarchs who use the wealth from their country's natural resources for vanity projects, they've spent hundreds of billions of dollars for sports tournament instead of doing something that really matters. They are run of the mill tyrants.
But the US government has done and continues to do evil that the Qataris can't come close to.
I am not going to post anything more about politics.
Like convince it's football fans that their team is exciting and passing the ball back and forth between your defenders, before the inevitable back pass to the keeper as opposed to counter attacking at full pace is a sound strategy?
That is a crime foisted upon an unsuspecting public.
I don't understand what Japan is doing today. They aren't even really trying to score. They also did nothing in the first half against Germany, but that was in an attempt to shorten the game, so it made sense for them as the weaker team. Japan just made it a lot easier for Costa Rica to get a draw.
Japan will still probably win (and the odds think so too, at 55%), but why make it harder for yourself. It's not like Costa Rica is a decent team that just had a bad game against Spain. They are not a good team at all.
Yet another scoreless first half. That's 14 now.
edit: so much for that. I'm not liking Canada's chances right now at all. They need to figure something out. The good news is that if they can manage a draw today they still have a decent shot at advancing from the group, but it would likely require a 2-goal win over Morocco.
While Canada is done, they can still play spoiler. If they beat Morocco by even a single goal Morocco could go out, depending on the result in the other game.
If Germany wins by 2, the only way they go out is if Japan beats Spain. Spain will have seen the result of the game earlier and may not have any incentive to finish top of the group, so could likely survive a loss putting Germany out. While that’s fairy unlikey, Germany would be wise to try to get a couple early goals so as to focus Spain’s attention on the minor risk they could pass Spain on GD.
Germany has no real chance to win the group now, so if they advance they face 1st in group F, with the winner of that game facing the 1H/2G winner. That's a weak quadrant in which Germany would be the favorite.
Assuming Spain wins the group their quadrant would likely have Brazil, so they may not have tons of incentive to win. They could also face Belgium in the first round.
England and France will likely end up in the same quadrant, and it could get even harder if Argentina does not beat Poland. If Argentina beats Poland, they will have an easy quadrant with the Netherlands as likely the next best team.
Iran/Australia/SaudiaArabia/SouthKorea could all still surprise (basically, all the Asian teams have surprised to this point, including Japan who gave it all back with the loss to Costa Rica!), and we could get a surprise group winner. The other ones were tossups though: USA/Ecuador/Poland/Switzerland.
Oh yeah, and yet another scoreless first half. An amazing 15 in 28 games.
The above makes sense based on quality of play we have seen so far. Brazil and France have been great even relative to expectations, Spain has been good, Germany ok, and Argentina and England a little weak. Belgium and the Netherlands have been bad. Portugal maybe too early to say.
It's only been a couple games and people's perception could change quite a bit with another group game, but for some of these teams (France/England/Spain) it might be hard to read too much into the last remaining group game since there is little at stake in their remaining game.
Eric Wynalda
This is incorrect. Round 3 group stage games are always played at the same time to try to prevent teams from tanking or playing for a draw. Spain and Germany play their respective games in round 3 at the same time, just like all the other groups.
It was fun to see Cameroon shine given space to work with.
Oh wait, Serbia drew Cameroon. So a 1-goal loss here is almost as bad, maybe just as bad, as a 2-gioal loss.
I take it all back. Switzerland should go for broke now. They cannot survive even a 1-goal loss next week as it stands.
What do you mean? Unless Cameroon somehow beats Brazil, all the Swiss need to do is get a draw with Serbia.
I continue to not understand why letting obvious offsides play on for 10 or 15 seconds before raising the flag is a thing.
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