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Sunday, November 13, 2022

OT - World Cup Thread

Group A - Sunday/Monday/Friday/Tuesday
Z-Qatar 0-0-3 -6
Z-Ecuador 1-1-1 +1
Y-Senegal 2-0-1 1
X-Netherlands 2-1-0 +4

Group B - Monday/Friday/Tuesday
X-England 2-1-0 +7
Z-Iran 1-0-2 -3
Y-UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!!!!! (All games 2PM) 1-2-0 +1
Z-Wales 0-1-2 -5

Group C - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday
X-Argentina 2-0-1 +3
Z-Saudi Arabia 1-1-1-2
Z-Mexico 1-1-1 -1
Y-Poland 1-2-0 0

Group D - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday
X-France 2-0-1 +3
Y-Australia 2-0-1 -1
Z-Denmark 0-1-2 -2
Z-Tunisia 1-1-1 0

Group E - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday
Y-Spain 1-1-1 +6
Z-Costa Rica 1-0-2 -8
Z-Germany 1-1-1 +1
X-Japan 2-0-1 +1

Group F - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday
Z-Belgium 1-1-1 -1
Z-Canada 0-0-3 -5
X-Morocco 2-1-0 +3
Y-Croatia 1-2-0 +3

Group G - Thursday/Monday/Friday
Y-Brazil 2-0-0+3
Serbia 0-1-1 -2
Switzerland 1-0-1 0
Cameroon 0-1-1 -1

Group H - Thursday/Monday/Friday
Y-Portugal 2-0-0 +3
Ghana 1-0-1 0
Uruguay 0-1-1 -2
South Korea 0-1-1 -1

X won group
Y advanced
Z eliminated

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 13, 2022 at 06:35 PM | 823 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off topic, soccer

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301. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2022 at 01:29 PM (#6107036)

I continue to not understand why letting obvious offsides play on for 10 or 15 seconds before raising the flag is a thing.

The second Cameroon goal today, is why. What seems obvious in the moment does not always turn out to be correct.

302. jmurph Posted: November 28, 2022 at 02:25 PM (#6107050)

The second Cameroon goal today, is why. What seems obvious in the moment does not always turn out to be correct.

But that wasn't obvious! I'm not referring to the close cases like that.

303. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2022 at 02:54 PM (#6107054)

It seemed obvious at the time, even from the booth. That's the problem. On top of that, the linesman often has to look in two directions at the same time, so there is often a delay between seeing the kick and seeing the line, if the linesman is even in the line. That split second difference can make an onside play look "obviously offside", which requires the linesman to use more of a buffer so as not to get the call wrong.

One thing to keep in mind is the linesman does not have the main camera view, or anything close to it. Especially if the play is on their side of the field and even worse a fast break coming down their side its extremely difficult to see everything happening exactly as it happens. It's way easier from the booth.

304. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2022 at 03:15 PM (#6107060)

Another 0-0 first half. Still 2.5 goals per game overall is not that low.

Ronaldo claimed the goal but he might not have touched it at all.

305. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2022 at 03:42 PM (#6107064)

Looks like Uruguay will need to beat Ghana to advance, and unless they get a goal here will need Portugal not to capitulate badly to South Korea.

edit: South Korea not managing to draw the game against Ghana despite their siege on goal in the last 20 minutes is really a shame. In retrospect they would have faced off against a Portugal who had already clinched top spot in the group, where a win would put them in and even a draw with luck.

edit2: and I'm quite happy that Bruno took that penalty rather than Ronaldo. Luckily Ronaldo was off the field.

306. bestergonomicgamingchair.com Posted: November 28, 2022 at 03:49 PM (#6107066)

I have no respect for drunk idiots who run on the field for no damn reason, but I've got nothing but respect for this guy's cannonballs and messages.
Take your pick of the three ...

307. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 28, 2022 at 03:51 PM (#6107067)

Really wish the referee had carded Suarez there, Suarez was so close to the ref he had to avoid him to signal for the penalty.

308. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 28, 2022 at 04:16 PM (#6107070)

TUESDAY SCHEDULE (I think I have this right but I'm not 100%)

10AM
Netherlands-Qatar
Ecuador-Senegal

NED/ECU win -both advance
QAT/SEN win - Senegal advance, goal difference ECU/NED
QAT/ECU win - ECU win group, NED advance
NED/SEN win - both advance, NED win group
NEDwin/ECUSEN draw - NED win group, Ecuador advance
QATwin/ECUSEN draw - ECU win group, SEN/NED GD
NEDQAT draw/ECU win - ECU win group, NED advance
NEDQAT draw/SEN win - Senegal win group, NED advance on GD
BOTH DRAW - ECU wins group, NED advance

2PM
England-Wales
USA-Iran

ENG/USA win - both advance ENG win group
ENG/IRN win - both advance ENG win group
WAL/IRN win - Iran win group, ENG/WAL goal difference (3 goal win for Wales to advance)
WAL/USA win - USA win group, ENG/WAL goal difference (3 goal win for Wales to advance)
ENG win/USAIRN draw - ENG win group, Iran advance
WAL win/USAIRN draw - ENG win group, IRN/WAL GD
ENGWAL draw/USA win - ENG win group, USA advance
ENGWAL draw/IRN win - IRN win group, ENG advance
BOTH DRAW - ENG win group, Iran advance

309. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2022 at 04:24 PM (#6107071)

Updated betting odds:

                 original         after round 1       after round 2
             qualify   winner    qualify   winner    qualify   winner
Group A
netherlands      87      66          96      78          98      77
ecuador          46      13          67      19          70      17
senegal          49      16          34       3          32       6
qatar            18       5           3

Group B
england          88      69          95      83         100*     87  
iran             21       4          12                  49       6** 
usa              47      14          49       9          48       7
wales            44      13          42       8           3

Group C
argentina        90      69          65      39          82      65
poland           49      14          42      19          68      31
saudi arabia     10       2          49      22          26       4
mexico           51      15          44      20          24


Group D
france           90      66          96      81         100     100***
denmark          71      26          66      16          64
australia        19       4          12                  33
tunisia          20       4          26       3           3

Group E
spain            87      49          92      76         100****  89 
germany          85      44          35       5          79     
japan            21       6          71      19          13      11
costa rica        7       1           2                   8         

Group F
morocco          29       8          36      10          87      30
croatia          65      28          54      22          73      48
belgium          84      58          85      63          40      22
canada           22       6          25       5

Group G
brazil           90      70          96      87         100      99
switzerland      49      14          63      11          61       1
serbia           43      12          37       2          36
cameroon         18       4           4                   3

Group H
portugal         83      56          90      73          100     99
uruguay          68      32          60      17           51
ghana            24       6          15       2           41      1
south korea      25       6          35       8            8

Notes:
*        England not a true 100% to advance, but would have to lose by at least 4.
**       Iran back from much less than 1% to win the group
***      France not a true 100% to win the group, but would need a 6-goal turnaround.
****     Spain not a true 100% to win the group, but would need an 8-goal turnaround.
other    Wales, Australia, and Costa Rica can all technically still win their groups, but won't.

310. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2022 at 07:55 PM (#6107096)

The USA odds are wild--basically 50/50 all the way through so far.

Results by conference:
African teams have done slightly better than expected, but still are expected to get 1 or 2 teams in out of 5, so not much has really changed.
Asian teams are now doing slightly worse than expected. They were expected to get 1 team in out of 5, and now that's somewhat iffy.
North American teams have done worse than expected. Originally expected to get 1 or maybe 2 teams in out of 4. Now the expectation is less than one team.
South America teams very slightly better than expected. Still 3 of 4 expected to advance.
European teams are doing almost exactly as expected. Still about 9 expected to advance. Belgium's downfall has been more than made up for by all the other European group favorites advancing.

Of course, there will still be some surprises on the last day, so the above could change.

311. Textbook Editor Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:55 PM (#6107112)

Do I have this right...

IF Netherlands wins A, they'd play USA if they're in 2nd in B.

IF the USA wins, they'd then face the winner of C 1st (assuming Argentina) vs. D 2nd (assuming Denmark).

I often think USA making the quarterfinals in 2002 was the high-water mark for USMNT at the WC, but if they made the semifinals this year and go through Argentina to get there, that would absolutely be the high-water mark.

312. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2022 at 11:18 PM (#6107114)

If they made the semi-finals no matter who they beat it would be considered the high water mark, probably for a long time. Teams often get to the semis without beating one of the 5 or 6 favorites along the way. Poland could even eke out a draw against Argentina and win Group C.

Just beating Iran and making it to the KOs would feel like a success of a world cup for me. Anything more is gravy.

313. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 28, 2022 at 11:33 PM (#6107116)

Some of the permutations above are missing a few things:

10AM
Netherlands-Qatar
Ecuador-Senegal

NED/ECU win -both advance winner decided by goal difference (really, all tie breakers)
QAT/SEN win - Senegal win group, goal difference ECU/NED to advance
QAT/ECU win - ECU win group, NED advance
NED/SEN win - both advance, NED win group
NEDwin/ECUSEN draw - NED win group, Ecuador advance
QATwin/ECUSEN draw - ECU win group, SEN/NED GD
NEDQAT draw/ECU win - ECU win group, NED advance
NEDQAT draw/SEN win - Senegal win group, NED advance on GD
BOTH DRAW - ECU/NED advance group winner by later tie breakers (level on GD)

2PM
England-Wales
USA-Iran

ENG/USA win - both advance ENG win group
ENG/IRN win - both advance ENG win group
WAL/IRN win - Iran win group, ENG/WAL goal difference (4 goal win for Wales to advance) - 3 is level on GD, with Wales behind on goals scored
WAL/USA win - USA win group, ENG/WAL goal difference (4 goal win for Wales to advance)
ENG win/USAIRN draw - ENG win group, Iran advance
WAL win/USAIRN draw - WAL advance on GD; ENG/IRN GD to advance (WAL would have to beat ENG by probably 7 for IRN to advance) group winner ENG/WAL (4 goal win for WAL)
ENGWAL draw/USA win - ENG win group (USA win group with maybe 4 but probably 5 goal win), USA advance
ENGWAL draw/IRN win - IRN win group, ENG advance
BOTH DRAW - ENG win group, Iran advance

314. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2022 at 08:52 AM (#6107126)

Supposedly the goal was definitively Bruno's (according to FIFA tech), and not Ronaldo's. That makes the narcissistic "goal" celebration by Ronaldo all the more ironic and pathetic.

315. Textbook Editor Posted: November 29, 2022 at 09:53 AM (#6107131)

I honestly think "pro-Ronaldo" people are less pro-Ronaldo and more just "anti-Messi" people--i.e., contrarians to be contrarian.

Ronaldo is a such loathsome individual, and I can only hope his end-of-career temper-tantrums ruin his standing in the pecking order of all-time great players. In hindsight Real Madrid make precisely the right call at the right time in getting rid of him.

316. jmurph Posted: November 29, 2022 at 10:02 AM (#6107135)

Alright the permutations posted are too complex for my simple brain, someone tell me which 10am game matters more.

EDIT: The tv man has explained to me that the winner of Senegal-Ecuador advances (assuming the Netherlands win), is that correct?

317. spivey Posted: November 29, 2022 at 10:22 AM (#6107137)

I often think USA making the quarterfinals in 2002 was the high-water mark for USMNT at the WC, but if they made the semifinals this year and go through Argentina to get there, that would absolutely be the high-water mark.

Cheers Geoff.

318. Dolf Lucky Posted: November 29, 2022 at 10:31 AM (#6107139)

Alright the permutations posted are too complex for my simple brain, someone tell me which 10am game matters more.

The ECU/SEN game matters way more. Holland is essentially through. Senegal needs to win to advance. If they don't win, Ecuador will advance.

319. jmurph Posted: November 29, 2022 at 10:46 AM (#6107140)

Perfect set-up for an exciting second half in Senegal-Ecuador- it's been fun so far.

320. Howie Menckel Posted: November 29, 2022 at 10:52 AM (#6107141)

that Senegal guy, who pretended to have been shot multiple times by snipers in an effort to draw a card on Ecuador, has a future in pro wrestling if this soccer gig doesn't work out !

321. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: November 29, 2022 at 11:31 AM (#6107147)

Holy wow.

322. jmurph Posted: November 29, 2022 at 11:32 AM (#6107148)

This is great stuff, love it.

323. Dolf Lucky Posted: November 29, 2022 at 11:41 AM (#6107150)

The situations that arise for the 3rd matches of each group are so much fun. Little wonder that FIFA has killed the concept that produces such fun.

324. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2022 at 12:01 PM (#6107155)

Good win by Senegal. Ecuador's negative play did not serve them well in the first half at all, and though they are a good team we are all probably better off without having to watch a very dull England/Ecuador matchup.

325. jmurph Posted: November 29, 2022 at 12:01 PM (#6107156)

The situations that arise for the 3rd matches of each group are so much fun. Little wonder that FIFA has killed the concept that produces such fun.

Yes but in exchange we'll get many more mediocre teams involved, so it's really win-win.

(I haven't thought about this for more than 10 seconds but expanding the field is just about making sure the US and (especially) China qualify, right?)

326. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 29, 2022 at 02:01 PM (#6107179)

OK, let's go guys.

327. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 29, 2022 at 02:23 PM (#6107183)

This seems untenable - either the US is going to tire and this game stagnates, or they finally break through and get a goal.

328. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 29, 2022 at 02:25 PM (#6107184)

This feels like a qualifier. For once the US is the more talented and dynamic team. Feels like a game against El Salvador. That's not a guarantee of a win, we know that but it feels like the US should feel confident. They seemed to be better in the second half a lot during CONCACAF

329. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 29, 2022 at 02:39 PM (#6107188)

YEAaahhhhh!!!!!

330. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 29, 2022 at 02:42 PM (#6107189)

Hmm, would you take a fastball to the nuts for a world cup goal? Think we know the answer to that one!

331. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 29, 2022 at 02:46 PM (#6107191)

Hope the Pulisics don't want grandkids.

332. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 29, 2022 at 02:51 PM (#6107193)

Dest has been great so far, not sold on Robinson at the moment though.

333. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 29, 2022 at 02:52 PM (#6107194)

MMA are playing SO well this whole tournament.

334. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 29, 2022 at 02:53 PM (#6107195)

That was REALLY tight.

335. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 29, 2022 at 02:54 PM (#6107196)

Wow that was close!

336. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:10 PM (#6107201)

Not that I think he should be starting over Pulisic, obviously, but every time Aaronson's on the pitch he does interesting things and I'm not convinced he should be coming off the bench.

337. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:11 PM (#6107203)

10 shots to none for the USMNT so far. I was not expecting this.

338. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:15 PM (#6107204)

I was not expecting this.

I don't know, if you just eyeball their rosters it's clear that the US has far better players. I never really understood why the betting odds and 538 had this at basically even money.

339. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:16 PM (#6107205)

England has now effectively clinched the group. At the moment, the groups A&B are exactly as predicted coming into the tournament, though the USA over Wales and Senegal over Ecuador were considered very close to tossups.

Iran now needs to score. Their first shot was a dangerous one.

edit: it was even money for a US win versus draw/loss. That means the USA was a fairly strong favorite.
edit2: also, what I meant was while I expected Iran to play defensively, I didn't expect such a margin of shots. There is essentially no team that expects to survive a 20-0 shot barrage (extrapolated over the full game) and escape with a draw.

340. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:20 PM (#6107206)

I expected the US to be the better team, didn't expect them to be as dominant as they were in the first half. Second half hasn't started as cleanly.

341. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:25 PM (#6107208)

Robinson-heavy-first-touch, it's like it's his name.

342. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:28 PM (#6107211)

So lucky Iran missed there. That was a huge chance that only ended in a mediocre xG shot attempt, that missed. The USMNT lucked out.

343. SoSH U at work Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:38 PM (#6107213)

If Sargent is hurt, it's his own damn fault. He could have easily leaped over the defender, but he dragged the leg.

344. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:38 PM (#6107214)

So if Sargent has to go off we have to make our final subs here right? One. more window?

345. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:44 PM (#6107216)

Does the halftime sub not count as one of the three windows?

346. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:47 PM (#6107218)

Jeez what are we looking at for extra time here - 8 min?

347. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:50 PM (#6107219)

This is so nerve-wracking. I'd really like to have the ball a bit.

348. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:55 PM (#6107221)

Musah looks tired.

349. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 29, 2022 at 03:59 PM (#6107222)

I was about to agree with you on Musah but that was a great play. Dude looks cooked though.

350. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: November 29, 2022 at 04:03 PM (#6107224)

Wow. That was intense.

351. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 29, 2022 at 04:04 PM (#6107225)

that would have been a bullshit penalty

352. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 29, 2022 at 04:04 PM (#6107226)

HELL YEAH!!!

353. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: November 29, 2022 at 04:05 PM (#6107227)

I was about to agree with you on Musah but that was a great play. Dude looks cooked though.

As a coach, when you tell your players you want them to give 110%, that's what you mean. When you've got nothing left, give a little bit more. Musah did there.

354. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: November 29, 2022 at 04:05 PM (#6107228)

wow, might want to consider scoring more than 1 goal a game. Super happy they won though!

355. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: November 29, 2022 at 04:05 PM (#6107229)

Double post

356. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 29, 2022 at 04:08 PM (#6107232)

How many headers did Zimmerman win?

357. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2022 at 04:14 PM (#6107234)

I like the USMNT's chances against the Netherlands. Early betting odds has it as 1 in 3. That's quite a bit better than Senegal against England.

358. Howie Menckel Posted: November 29, 2022 at 05:07 PM (#6107243)

dramatic finish for US-Iran.

notable: US sportsbooks were offering almost 4-1 odds today on an Iran win, because over 90 pct of the money was on US and they couldn't make a line high enough to lure money in on Iran.
Iranic - er, ironic - because at those odds, that was the smarter play (that lost). US was even-money to win iirc.

meanwhile, as noted in Post 52, my pre-Cup wager was on Netherlands at 12-1 to win it all.
figured they might play US in Round of 16 and here we are.
and likely would have to beat Argentina in QF, which is unlikely but it's why I got long odds in the first place.

359. spivey Posted: November 29, 2022 at 05:19 PM (#6107246)

Netherlands looked very unconvincing in their group matches.

If Pulisic can't play and Reyna doesn't play, I don't know where the US gets goals from, though.

Also, the US almost looks like a good squad and then we're going and giving huge minutes to Agoos-level ##### like Shaq Moore and Haji Wright.

####### play Yedlin and Reyna. Yedlin may be bad, but he's respectably bad. Shaq Moore is like having me out there.

360. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 29, 2022 at 05:28 PM (#6107247)

notable: US sportsbooks were offering almost 4-1 odds today on an Iran win, because over 90 pct of the money was on US and they couldn't make a line high enough to lure money in on Iran.

And, because Iran didn't need to win. They had zero shots when the game was level. What were the odds for a draw? That may have been where the smart money was, but based on today's game I don't know if that's even true. The US winning 50% of the time on a game like this seems pretty reasonable, and Iran won't win many.

edit: also, you can get the Netherlands at better odds now than you could when the tournament started, even with them winning their group, not having to face England, and potentially not having to face Argentina. They have not been good.

361. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 29, 2022 at 07:09 PM (#6107259)

I like Moore but he’s been poor twice, go with Yedlin. Reyna I wonder about fitness. Sargent was good today but also not a finisher, give Gio a shot.

362. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 29, 2022 at 07:11 PM (#6107260)

10AM
Tunisia-France
Australia-Denmark

FRA/AUS win - France win group, both advance
FRA/DEN win - France win group, both advance
TUN/AUS win - FRA/AUS advance, tiebreaker to win group
TUN/DEN win - FRA win group, DEN advance
TUN win/AUSDEN draw - FRA win group, AUS advance
FRA win/AUSDEN draw - FRA win group, AUS advance
FRATUN draw/AUS win - France win group, Australia advance
FRATUN draw/DEN win - France win group, Denmark advance
BOTH DRAW - France win group, Australia advance

2PM
Poland-Argentina
Saudi Arabia-Mexico

POL/KSA win - POL win group, KSA advance
POL/MEX win - POL win group, MEX advance
ARG/KSA win - ARG/KSA advance, tiebreakers to win group
ARG/MEX win - ARG win group, MEX/POL tiebreakers to win group
POL win/KSAMEX draw - Poland win group, KSA advance
ARG win/KSAMEX draw - ARG win group, POL/KSA tiebreakers to advance
POLARG draw/KSA win - KSA win group, POL advance
POLARG draw/MEX win - POL advance, ARG/MEX tiebreakers to advance
BOTH DRAW - POL win group, ARG/KSA tiebreakers to advance

363. Pirate Joe Posted: November 29, 2022 at 07:24 PM (#6107262)

Yedlin may be bad, but he's respectably bad. Shaq Moore is like having me out there.

Joe Scally, good enough to start in the Bundesliga, not good enough to play ahead of Shaq Moore.

Apparently.

364. Textbook Editor Posted: November 29, 2022 at 08:10 PM (#6107265)

The 2pm games tomorrow could be quite the joyride.

365. Howie Menckel Posted: November 29, 2022 at 08:37 PM (#6107269)

And, because Iran didn't need to win.

yes, good point

366. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 29, 2022 at 10:09 PM (#6107277)

If Pulisic can't play

The man took a hard shot to the nuts. God love him, but he should be available.

367. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 29, 2022 at 10:11 PM (#6107278)

Also, the US almost looks like a good squad and then we're going and giving huge minutes to Agoos-level ##### like Shaq Moore and Haji Wright.

Yeah, Moore was notably terrible in his minutes. This is a team with options; he shouldn't be one of them.

368. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 29, 2022 at 10:29 PM (#6107280)

Pulisic was stumbling around like someone concussed after that. As much as it looked like a nut shot I wonder if he got his head scrambled a bit when he came to an abrupt stop.

369. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2022 at 12:21 AM (#6107289)

Early odds on the round of 16 games are (to advance): US 32%, Senegal 22%. I think I like both underdogs at those odds.

To be fair to Howie above, in retrospect it's easy to say that the way the US and Iran played the odds seemed reasonable. I think if Iran had played a bit more on the front foot today in the first half they might have had a better shot to at least get the draw, and certainly the win. Had we all known the coach's game plan going in would be quite so defensive I think it's a lot harder call.

What's interesting is Iran was so much better this tournament when they opened it up. They were a horror show playing defensively, or trying to, against England, and did nothing to threaten the US in the first half while giving up way too many chances, presumably trying to hold onto their draw.

It seems like a common theme--defending deep and compact is a very effective strategy, but an integral part of it has to be transitioning to breaks and making use of the open field as soon as you gain possession of the ball. This is a problem with some defensive minded approaches when teams are inferior or just looking for a draw, but is as big a problem when teams are defending a lead in the last 10 minutes of the game. Defending with all 11 with no hope of forcing counters is suboptimal, even with limited time left (unless maybe you are in the last 2 minutes or something).

370. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2022 at 11:40 AM (#6107308)

Well what do you know. France hadn't technically clinched top spot in the group prior to the game today, but they sure are playing like they are aware that the game is virtually meaningless, considering their GD edge (6 goal turnaroud, so they are still very, very safe). This appears to be the scenario mentioned upthread where the already group winner rolls over for inferior opposition, allowing them to sneak in on the last day--the one we wanted the US to avoid. Unfortunately for Tunisia Australia is currently winning.

Also France seems to have rotated virtually their entire team.

371. jmurph Posted: November 30, 2022 at 11:57 AM (#6107310)

Man that is a terrible overall performance from Denmark, pretty surprising.

372. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2022 at 11:57 AM (#6107311)

Congratulations to Australia! Well played and did just enough to give themselves a chance for the win.

And what happened to Denmark. 3 straight under par games for them.

373. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2022 at 12:03 PM (#6107313)

The ref made the right call in ruling that last second French goal offside, based on the latest IFAB guidelines. This was a lot like the play off the crossbar in the EPL game where they allowed the goal, unbelievably in my view.

374. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: November 30, 2022 at 02:19 PM (#6107335)

I don't suppose we have a chance of seeing an actual first-half goal from Saudi Arabia or Mexico, despite both wanting a win (Mexico by multiple goals).

375. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2022 at 02:25 PM (#6107338)

I got wrapped up in work so forgot about that first half thing. What are we at now, 20 out of 38?

376. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2022 at 02:39 PM (#6107340)

That was contact, but not a ton and it was after the play, but it was on the face. Historically that has not been a PK, but maybe times are changing.

377. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2022 at 02:52 PM (#6107345)

By my count that makes 22 scoreless first halves in 40 games. That's astounding.

378. Meatwad Posted: November 30, 2022 at 02:58 PM (#6107348)

I would love to see Poland move on, at worst they can draw to advance but a win would be quite nice.

379. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2022 at 03:08 PM (#6107350)

It's hard to imagine Poland coming back now, but you never know. They are still in line to advance, considering Mexico has not scored.

It's not actually true that Poland needs to score, considering the score in the Mexico game. They shouldn't leave the back door open just yet.

380. SoSH U at work Posted: November 30, 2022 at 03:11 PM (#6107352)

Now it's a little more interesting.

381. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2022 at 03:28 PM (#6107355)

Right now the group is being decided on yellow cards.

I think Poland is up 3 on yellow cards (i.e., are comfortably ahead and likely would advance if it came down to fair play). Things can change quickly at the end of games though, even if the score stays level.

382. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 30, 2022 at 03:34 PM (#6107356)

This is nuts. The good news for Poland is Argentina have no need to press. They’ll keep coming but they aren’t going to be going all out.

383. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2022 at 03:34 PM (#6107357)

Argentina is up 2-0 but they still are trying to do Mexico a favor by scoring more it looks like. Maybe they are just happy they can finally get some offense going and are enjoying it.

edit: now I'm seeing post 382. Still 15 minutes left plus extra time, so we'll see if they dial it back. They are just passing the ball around now.

384. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2022 at 03:51 PM (#6107360)

With the game this close to over, Poland's primary motive has to be not to give up another goal.

385. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: November 30, 2022 at 03:58 PM (#6107362)

And that's it for Mexico. They came so close.

386. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2022 at 03:58 PM (#6107363)

A goal by Saudi Arabia doesn't change anything at all. Mexico still just needs one goal.

But it is not enough! The saddest part here is that this did not go to fair play.

What a crazy couple of games.

387. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2022 at 04:07 PM (#6107365)

Argentina should be big favorites to make it to the semis now, considering the teams in their quartile, the best being the Netherlands. France has England. Brazil has likely Spain, and Portugal has likely Germany. Belgium if they advance likely faces Germany or Brazil.

388. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 30, 2022 at 05:17 PM (#6107376)

France is a massive favorite over Poland, and Argentina is a prohibitive favorite over Australia (over 90% right now). The USA/Netherlands is still considered by far the closest matchup. I don't expect that will be the case after Friday though.

389. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: November 30, 2022 at 06:00 PM (#6107380)

Would have been wild if we had second place in a group come down to fair play two World Cups in a row.\

Poland are complete rubbish. It's kind of stunning that they advanced.

390. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 30, 2022 at 08:03 PM (#6107396)

THURSDAY SCHEDULE

10AM
Canada-Morocco
Croatia-Belgium

CAN/CRO win - CRO win group, MAR advance
MAR/BEL win - MAR win group, BEL advance
CAN/BEL win - BEL win group, CRO/MAR tiebreakers
MAR/CRO win - MAR/CRO advance, tiebreakers for group
CAN win/CROBEL draw - CRO win group, BEL/MAR tiebreakers
MAR win/CROBEL draw - MAR win group, CRO advance
CANMAR draw/CRO win - CRO win group, MAR/BEL tiebreakers
CANMAR draw/BEL win - BEL win group, MAR advance
BOTH DRAW - CRO win group, MAR advance

2PM
Japan-Spain
Costa Rica-Germany

JAP/CRC win - JAP/CRC advance, tiebreakers for group
ESP/GER win - ESP win group, GER advance
JAP/GER win - JAP win group, GER/ESP tiebreakers
ESP/CRC win - ESP win group, CRC advance
JAP win/CRCGER draw - JAP win group, ESP/CRC/GER tiebreakers
ESP win/CRCGER draw - ESP win group, CRC advance
JAPESP draw/CRC win - CRC win group, ESP advance
JAPESP draw/GER win - ESP win group, JAP/CRC/GER tiebreakers
BOTH DRAW - ESP win group, JAP/CRC tiebreakers

391. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: November 30, 2022 at 08:31 PM (#6107401)

France and England in the quarters would be wild if they both get there.

392. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: December 01, 2022 at 10:06 AM (#6107439)

Holy wow.

393. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 01, 2022 at 10:40 AM (#6107442)

Well, one of the 2018 semifinalists is going out in the group stage. Canada look like they've just packed it in.

394. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 01, 2022 at 10:40 AM (#6107443)

And of course as I say that Canada score.

395. jmurph Posted: December 01, 2022 at 10:48 AM (#6107448)

Belgium should be so much better.

396. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2022 at 11:26 AM (#6107451)

I saw that Canada first half and they were not good. They were done in though by some terrible goalkeeping play, and could well have not given up any goals with a bit more discipline, considering they got lucky that last one was chalked off.

397. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2022 at 11:31 AM (#6107452)

Another scoreless first half, now 23 out of 42 games. I will now be disappointed if we don't hit 32 out of 64 for the tourney.

398. jmurph Posted: December 01, 2022 at 11:50 AM (#6107462)

Every single Lukaku miss is explainable but taken in totality it's a total disaster.

399. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2022 at 11:51 AM (#6107463)

Doesn't appear to be Lukaku's day.

400. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: December 01, 2022 at 11:55 AM (#6107464)

Good finish by the Canadians.

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