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Sunday, November 13, 2022

OT - World Cup Thread

Group A - Sunday/Monday/Friday/Tuesday
Z-Qatar 0-0-3 -6
Z-Ecuador 1-1-1 +1
Y-Senegal 2-0-1 1
X-Netherlands 2-1-0 +4

Group B - Monday/Friday/Tuesday
X-England 2-1-0 +7
Z-Iran 1-0-2 -3
Y-UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!!!!! (All games 2PM) 1-2-0 +1
Z-Wales 0-1-2 -5

Group C - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday
X-Argentina 2-0-1 +3
Z-Saudi Arabia 1-1-1-2
Z-Mexico 1-1-1 -1
Y-Poland 1-2-0 0

Group D - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday
X-France 2-0-1 +3
Y-Australia 2-0-1 -1
Z-Denmark 0-1-2 -2
Z-Tunisia 1-1-1 0

Group E - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday
Y-Spain 1-1-1 +6
Z-Costa Rica 1-0-2 -8
Z-Germany 1-1-1 +1
X-Japan 2-0-1 +1

Group F - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday
Z-Belgium 1-1-1 -1
Z-Canada 0-0-3 -5
X-Morocco 2-1-0 +3
Y-Croatia 1-2-0 +3

Group G - Thursday/Monday/Friday
Y-Brazil 2-0-0+3
Serbia 0-1-1 -2
Switzerland 1-0-1 0
Cameroon 0-1-1 -1

Group H - Thursday/Monday/Friday
Y-Portugal 2-0-0 +3
Ghana 1-0-1 0
Uruguay 0-1-1 -2
South Korea 0-1-1 -1

X won group
Y advanced
Z eliminated

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 13, 2022 at 06:35 PM | 823 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off topic, soccer

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401. spivey Posted: December 01, 2022 at 11:58 AM (#6107465)

Lukaku what the actual #### man. Some of these are not that straightforward finishes, but that last one was even worse than I expected when I loaded the link from reddit.

402. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 01, 2022 at 12:05 PM (#6107470)

Every single Lukaku miss is explainable but taken in totality it's a total disaster.

Is that last one explainable? All he had to do was angle his body properly. I can't figure the last one out. I think I could have scored there, just by accident.

403. spivey Posted: December 01, 2022 at 12:06 PM (#6107471)

Is that last one explainable? All he had to do was angle his body properly. I can't figure the last one out. I think I could have scored there, just by accident.

I think he was caught between trying to trap it or trying to head/just barge it into the goal. The other misses may very well have been in his head at that point, it seemed like he just panicked.

404. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 01, 2022 at 01:26 PM (#6107479)

I think maybe he didn't think the ball would get to him - seemed like Lovren should have headed that away. Not really an excuse for a striker though, you should be ready for the ball to come to you.

405. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2022 at 02:49 PM (#6107492)

Germany not exactly dominating the score line. Luckily for them Spain does not look ready to lose either.

Costa Rica has I think 4 shots in 2.5 games. That's insanity.

406. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:12 PM (#6107498)

I see Germany did not take my advice and score a bunch early, and now they might be ######.

Once again a team that has nothing to play for is getting beaten. Spain gains nothing b y winning now, and probably is worse off actually. Germany should have scored a few goals to put pressure on them.

Germany needs to score at least one and then hope Spain does them a favor and draws level.

And now Costa Rica scores. This is absurd. One more and they advance. That would be funny.

407. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:20 PM (#6107499)

Germany looks like they could win this one still, but Spain might decide they don't want to score again, so it won't even matter.

edit: oh, letting Costa Rica score might have been smart by Germany actually, because now Spain has to worry about them scoring again and sending Spain out too. hehe.

408. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:26 PM (#6107501)

OH MY

409. jmurph Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:28 PM (#6107502)

This is WILD.

410. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:29 PM (#6107503)

Spain is now heading out if the current scorelines hold up. Now Spain needs to score to survive! And if that happens Germany can still advance if they score two,

411. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:38 PM (#6107505)

Does Spain try to get the draw just so they don't have to rely on Germany? If they do, Germany only needs one more goal to advance over South Korea.

Spain not getting the draw is risky, because Germany will go for broke with a very high line looking for the win and leaving themselves open for a counter. A goal by Costa Rica under these circumstances is unlikely but certainly not impossible.

412. spivey Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:40 PM (#6107506)

Spain has to press for a goal imo. This is amazing.

413. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:40 PM (#6107507)

What the hell, Germany and Spain. I leave for lunch and this is what happens? I almost hope Costa Rica wins now to send them both home.

414. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:41 PM (#6107508)

And Germany scores as I type that.

415. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:41 PM (#6107509)

Costa Rica could win. Germany is going to play with 11 men up soon, including Neuer.

edit: I guess not now. Spain maybe won't bother scoring now though, so it's a mixed blessing for Germany.

416. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:47 PM (#6107512)

I think we've learned in the last couple days you really can't rely on teams with nothing to play for. South Korea and Tunisia beating Spain and France would probably almost never happen under normal circumstances.

417. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:48 PM (#6107514)

Ugh, stupid Spain. How are you going to blow it like that? (I'm pulling for Germany on my late grandfather's behalf. He's watching this from heaven and shaking his head in disappointment.)

418. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:49 PM (#6107515)

Germany needs 4 more goals in extra time. Pretty sure that won't be happening.

edit: I don't think Spain blew it really. Losing was better for them than winning. There was only that minor moment of risk when Costa Rica had the lead.

419. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:52 PM (#6107517)

I haven't watched any of the Spain-Japan game - is there any evidence they threw that game to get Morocco instead of Croatia?

420. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:54 PM (#6107518)

You mean lost that game. And yes, the evidence is that they lost. They went a very long period without so much as a shot.

421. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:54 PM (#6107519)

Although now that I think about it, when Costa Rica was ahead, they were going out, so that's probably not the case. I guess they don't care about tying it up now.

422. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:57 PM (#6107521)

Japan through by beating Germany/Spain and losing to Costa Rica. The obvious route to the round of 16.

423. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2022 at 03:59 PM (#6107522)

I'm not actually suggesting Sapin threw the game. I'm only saying you can't expect a team with no incentive to win to actually get the win. I looked back at the games from the last several world cups and it's a running theme. Superior teams with nothing to play for often don't win, though the sample sizes are small.

We just had two more this tournament, though you can give an asterisk to Spain since there actually was a risk they could have gone out entirely, however small.

424. spivey Posted: December 01, 2022 at 04:00 PM (#6107523)

Germany with over 6 xG per infogol now. Germany actually have been pretty hard luck here. They dominated Japan per xG, had the slightly better chances in the Spain match (though most of that came in the last 20 minutes iirc), and were pretty dominant today. Defense was a bit leaky, really they were very Bayern-esque where they were going to let you have some chances, but were able to create a ton of chances for a national team.

425. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2022 at 04:06 PM (#6107524)

Yeah Germany is clearly one of the top 8 teams in the tournament, and maybe top 5. And, they didn't play that badly on top of that.

That said they absolutely could not lose that Japan game, because structurally it put them at a huge disadvantage. I noted this when it happened. Playing so casually at the back with a lead and especially when they still had a draw was just terrible.

426. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: December 01, 2022 at 04:24 PM (#6107527)

Germany only needs one more goal to advance over South Korea.

South Korea and Tunisia beating Spain and France

I would have let it go once, but... you do know Japan and South Korea are different countries?

427. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2022 at 05:58 PM (#6107531)

I do actually... I'm married to a Korean (though more accurately she is an Angelino whose immediate ancestry is half North Korean). To be fair I didn't watch even a minute of that Spain game, so maybe I can be forgiven.

428. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 01, 2022 at 06:04 PM (#6107533)

My main takeaway from today is . . . lol @ Germany.

429. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: December 01, 2022 at 06:40 PM (#6107535)

Japan through by beating Germany/Spain and losing to Costa Rica. The obvious route to the round of 16.

Right?

430. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 01, 2022 at 10:33 PM (#6107556)

By Infogol, Germany had the best aggregate GD of any team at the group stage, and Australia had the second worst. Costa Rica was the worst.

431. spivey Posted: December 02, 2022 at 09:16 AM (#6107576)

A couple of things you could say about Germany - in a knockout style (and also in just a low scoring game like soccer in general), it's probably better to have slightly lower xGD if you can limit xGA. I think they were good enough to win the WC, but on the whole I would also say they probably had too many mistakes in them from a defensive perspective to actually pull it off.

And Neuer I think has gotten to skate quite a bit because of the defense, but he didn't cover himself in glory this tournament. Both Costa Rica goals I would expect a top keeper to prevent. 2nd goal from Japan was tricky and definitely more on the defense, but he didn't do much there.

Musiala looks like he could be the best player in the world in a few years though.

432. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 02, 2022 at 10:23 AM (#6107587)

Ghana may want to just decline PKs against Uruguay.

433. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 02, 2022 at 11:50 AM (#6107590)

Wow, South Korea with the stoppage time goal to lead! Now Uruguay need a goal.

434. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: December 02, 2022 at 12:35 PM (#6107597)

Him:
Sad Suarez is the best Suarez

Me:
True, but only because Cannibal Suarez is the 2nd best Suarez
And unrepentant Handball Suarez is third
Depending upon where you rank racially abusive Suarez, of course.

435. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2022 at 01:37 PM (#6107610)

I saw that whole Ghana/Uruguay game. Uruguay whined a lot, but they were on the short end of some marginal calls. Combined with the bad call in the Portugal game, they really got shafted and probably should have advanced.

That said, I was going to be full of praise for them, getting 2 goals early. A third goal would have given Uruguay insurance, and I expected them to keep pushing for it. I was in disbelief when, after South Korea had drawn level, Uruguay was awfully casual for very long stretch of the game, barely trying to score. South Korea only needed a single goal and it was clear Portugal had given up trying to score for their part. They only had two shots from way outside the box until the 90th minute.

It's like Uruguay didn't learn thing from the France and Spain games.

I also think this puts to bed the idea that teams can rely on a team that is ahead in the group to help them out. If a team has nothing to play for you have to assume them losing has a decent chance of occurring. And you definitely can't expect them to push for a goal in the second half of their game.

436. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2022 at 02:46 PM (#6107614)

Just another stereotypical stodgy 0-0 defensive game by Switzerland. I guess we should have expected this, considering all they needed was a draw today.

437. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 02, 2022 at 02:49 PM (#6107615)

Serbia and Switzerland wanted to make up for all those 0-0 first halves with some fireworks. I approve.

438. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2022 at 03:06 PM (#6107617)

Do I think Brazil will go on to beat Cameroon? Yes! But at this point I wouldn't be shocked if it ends scoreless of if Cameroon even manages to win 1-0.

439. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2022 at 03:09 PM (#6107618)

That goal was very sweet. One bonus for Switzerland--now they can withstand a 3-3 draw combined with a Cameroon 1-0 win.

440. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2022 at 03:52 PM (#6107623)

Cameroon scored. lolol. One more goal by Switzerland and they win the group.

edit: the lesson is: don't let it go down to the last day if your opponents are facing a team that has qualified! Switzerland's third goal right now is the only thing keeping them going through. A 2-2 draw would not have been enough.

441. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2022 at 04:01 PM (#6107626)

Tunisia beats France. Japan beats Spain. South Korea beats Portugal. Cameroon beats Brazil. All four of those highly favored teams suffer no consequences for losing, and Spain actually benefitted. Japan and South Korea advance based on the largesse, and Tunisia and Cameroon would also have advanced with just slightly different results in the other group game (e.g., one fewer goal by Switzerland, or one more goal by Denmark or fewer goal by Australia).

Not coincidentally, FIFA announced yesterday that they are planning to have 12 groups of 4 rather than 16 of 3 in the next world cup with 48 teams. If you think this tournament is a bit of a farce (as I do...), a final group game between just two of the three group would have been an absolute joke for a lot of those groups.

edit: Brazil finally tried much harder to score at the very end of the game. Probably they knew they had a chance to lose group lead to Switzerland. If Serbia had been leading Switzerland probably they don't bother.

442. Howie Menckel Posted: December 02, 2022 at 06:38 PM (#6107645)

pre-World Cup odds:

Brazil 4-1 - Monday vs South Korea
France 6-1 - Sunday vs Poland
Argentina 6.5 to 1 - Saturday vs Australia
England 7-1 - Sunday vs Senegal
Spain 8-1 - Tuesday vs Morocco
Germany 10-1 - ELIMINATED
Belgium 12-1 - ELIMINATED
Netherlands 12-1 - Saturday vs USA
Portugal 12-1 - Tuesday vs Switzerland

.............

New World Cup odds:
Brazil 2.25 to 1
Argentina 4.5 to 1
France 5-1
Spain 6.5 to 1
England 9-1
Portugal 12-1
Netherlands 18-1

Croatia 35-1
Japan 65-1
Switzerland 65-1
Morocco 80-1
USA 90-1
Senegal 100-1
South Korea 150-1
Poland 180-1
Australia 200-1

..............

latest rankings I could find for the survivors:

1 Brazil
3 Argentina
4 France
5 England
7 Spain
8 Netherlands
9 Portugal
12 Croatia
15 Switzerland
16 USA

18 Senegal
22 Morocco
24 Japan
26 Poland
28 South Korea
38 Australia

443. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2022 at 08:06 PM (#6107653)

3 teams had effectively qualified for group winner coming into the games this last round. All 3 lost (France/Portugal/Brazil), and only Brazil was ever in any danger of losing their group lead, and then for only a few minutes, during which time they tried very hard to score for basically the first time all game.

3 other teams had clinched or virtually clinched a spot but were only playing for group winner (Netherlands/England/Spain). Of these, Spain actually preferred to lose, and so proceeded to lose.

444. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: December 02, 2022 at 08:16 PM (#6107658)

3 teams had effectively qualified for group winner coming into the games this last round. All 3 lost (France/Portugal/Brazil), and only Brazil was ever in any danger of losing their group lead, and then for only a few minutes, during which time they tried very hard to score for basically the first time all game.

I watched the 2nd half of the Brazil game but they did look like they were trying to score in the 2nd half. They didn't play their A-team certainly (Neymar, Casemeiro, Vini Jr, et al.) but Brazil did play attacking football for the entire second half, they were just pretty wasteful. They had 11 corner kicks and 21 attempts at goal.

445. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2022 at 08:16 PM (#6107659)

Odds for the round of 16:

Netherlands   67
Argentina     90
France        88
England       78
Croatia       63
Brazil        89
Spain         78
Portugal      67

Relative to these odds, 538 prefers the underdog in every single game.

446. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2022 at 08:21 PM (#6107660)

Brazil never loses that game if they are trying the whole time. They racked up half their xG in just 7 minutes once they went behind and were in danger of losing the top spot in the group.

447. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: December 02, 2022 at 08:35 PM (#6107665)

Why wouldn't Brazil be trying the whole game? If they lost they would have a much more difficult game against Portugal.

448. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: December 02, 2022 at 09:34 PM (#6107677)

They didn't play their A-team certainly (Neymar, Casemeiro, Vini Jr, et al.)

Neymar is injured fwiw.

449. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: December 02, 2022 at 09:52 PM (#6107681)

Why wouldn't Brazil be trying the whole game? If they lost they would have a much more difficult game against Portugal.

Obviosuly, it would increase their risk, not guarantee a game against Portugal.

450. spivey Posted: December 02, 2022 at 10:38 PM (#6107693)

Luis Enrique has been pretty adamant that Spain was trying to win. I think a lot of it is less instruction and just guys aren't going in 100% on challenges, etc. when they don't feel that urgency.

451. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2022 at 10:47 PM (#6107696)

Luis Enrique has been pretty adamant that Spain was trying to win. I think a lot of it is less instruction and just guys aren't going in 100% on challenges, etc. when they don't feel that urgency.No reason to believe him. For me the real point though is that if a team mostly goes through the motions then even if they are far superior to their opposition they can lose pretty easily. At least in international soccer. We see it all the time in friendlies.

Brazil did lose, and are not facing Portugal. For the few minutes when there was a real chance they might have to play Portugal they tried very hard all of a sudden.

Brazil is now 89% to advance over South Korea in a game that matters, considered to be a superior team to Cameroon.

452. Textbook Editor Posted: December 02, 2022 at 11:03 PM (#6107699)

I'd have to think if Australia manages to beat Argentina (even if on pens) it would be up there with all-time WC upsets.

This *could* be the year we have a complete outsider in the final. Lots of results have been odd, and when you throw the 50/50 randomness of a shootout into the mix, it could get even stranger. I'm rooting for chaos.

453. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2022 at 11:04 PM (#6107700)

I know Howie already posted these, but here they are in another format


Betting odds for tournament winner (percentages):<pre>
            ORIGINAL    CURRENT
brazil        19.5        29.5

argentina     15          16
france        12          15
spain          9.5        12.5

england        9.5         9.5
portugal       5.5         7
netherlands    6.5         4
croatia        1.5         2

switzerland    0.5         1
japan          0.2         1
usa            0.25        0.6
morocco        0.2         0.6
senegal        0.5         0.5
poland         0.3         0.3
south korea    0.2         0.25
australia      0.1         0.25

germany        7.5
belgium        5
denmark        2.5
uruguay        1.5
mexico         0.3
ecuador        0.25
wales          0.2
cameroon       0.2
canada         0.15
ghana          0.15
qatar          0.15
iran           0.1
tunisia        0.1
saudia arabia  0.05
costa rica     0.05

The Netherlands is the only team whose odds have gone down. That's what a crushing horrible loss can do to you. Brazil has really opened up a gap as they have been impressive, but they also should sail right through to the semis now considering their opposition, with or without Neymar. Argentina has been much less impressive and their odds show it, especially considering they have Australia and then the Netherlands/USA.

454. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 02, 2022 at 11:15 PM (#6107703)

Until this final week with the huge upsets in games that didn't matter for the top teams, I feel like we had a normal number of upsets. All the expected group winners except Belgium (and Spain, who didn't care to) won their groups. In the end there were only three second place surprises, but two were the very sketch ones from this week. The other one was Australia, who frankly were very lucky to make the KOs despite being inferior to the opposition in every game.

We did have some memorable upsets but I think we get a few every year. The Saudi Arabia one over Argentina is as close to pure fluke as you will see.

Betting odds expects 2 upsets in the round of 16, which would be a normal number. I'm hoping for the USA to be at least one.

455. Howie Menckel Posted: December 03, 2022 at 12:31 AM (#6107714)

Brazil has really opened up a gap as they have been impressive, but they also should sail right through to the semis now considering their opposition, with or without Neymar. Argentina has been much less impressive and their odds show it, especially considering they have Australia and then the Netherlands/USA.

Are 3 opening-round matches really enough to bury Argentina?

this is not my domain, so I claim no expertise. but I would have guessed that a team at that high level cannot be so easily dismissed.

I know with American sports, reading too much into unimpressive postseason wins of games or series - especially with a veteran - team - often is perilous.

flu bug has hit the Dutch, and they are not a high-end contender for the title, so I do understand increased skepticism of them.

456. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 06:02 AM (#6107719)

Argentina is still being given the second best odds here. Taking into account expected competition they would be third after France. Hardly buried, just downgraded a tad.

As for it having been only 3 games, this is international soccer. Teams don’t play many competiitive games, so for better or worse each recent performance weighs pretty heavily on the next game in a tournament like this. The most recent 3 games in club soccer would be weighted much less for future expectation.

457. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 03, 2022 at 07:56 AM (#6107720)

Spain was definitely trying to win for most of the game in my opinion. It was only when they got to added time and it was exceedingly unlikely for Costa Rica to come back that they relaxed.

458. Howie Menckel Posted: December 03, 2022 at 09:16 AM (#6107728)

As for it having been only 3 games, this is international soccer. Teams don’t play many competiitive games, so for better or worse each recent performance weighs pretty heavily on the next game in a tournament like this.

I see that is is taken that way, but do historical results tend to back up that belief?

459. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 09:47 AM (#6107729)

Spain didn't have a single shot for close to an hour in the middle of the game, during which time Japan scored twice.

460. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 09:57 AM (#6107730)

I see that is is taken that way, but do historical results tend to back up that belief?

There's little else to base expectation on. It's often 3 games now versus a handful of competitive games in the past year or two. Of course the 3 should be fairly heavily weighted.

461. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 03, 2022 at 10:10 AM (#6107731)

Well, that was fast.

462. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 10:30 AM (#6107732)

The USMNT looked good before the Netherlands goal, but have been terribe since. They can't move the ball through Netherlands midfield at all, and look vulnerable both in the potential to give the ball away and on counters.

The goal itself was too easy as well.

463. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 10:37 AM (#6107733)

This is exactly the game the Netherlands wants playing with a lead. Berhalter will have to seriously shake it up at halftime if not before.

464. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 03, 2022 at 10:40 AM (#6107734)

Yeah, currently the US has no idea what to do when they have the ball.

465. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 03, 2022 at 10:42 AM (#6107735)

I have to admit I'm not familiar with Ferreira but he does not look good.

466. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 03, 2022 at 10:45 AM (#6107737)

Yeah, currently the US has no idea what to do when they have the ball.

Perhaps an ironic comment right after the Weah rocket shot, but this looks like a repeat performance of the early minutes against England. They get into this pattern where they play pretty good possession ball, but they just -- won't -- shoot. It seems like everybody other than Weah and Pulisic lacks faith in their shot.

467. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 03, 2022 at 10:47 AM (#6107738)

They also started making some better runs after I posted that, but once again they leave someone unmarked in the box and it's 2-0.

468. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 10:49 AM (#6107739)

Wow what a disappointing half that was. And they even let Blind score.

Have to give credit to the Netherlands here, as they played the game they wanted to. The USMNT was a bit unlucky but they also seem to have no idea how to play this Netherlands team, so they are deservedly behind.

This is van Gaal's game, and Berhalter does not seem to have been ready for it at all.

edit: agree Dest making some penetrating dribbles was a big help, but they waited a long time even for that.

469. nick swisher hygiene Posted: December 03, 2022 at 10:50 AM (#6107740)

Yeah, I'm seeing the same thing Voxter--guys trying impossible passes in crowded areas....

470. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 03, 2022 at 11:12 AM (#6107741)

Reyna finally gets a half to try to help the US rescue this.

471. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 03, 2022 at 11:30 AM (#6107746)

What are all of your thoughts on how much of this passive attack style is lack of skill, youth, or Berhalter? His subbing really hasn't seemed to be effective at all, but I can't sort the playstyle vs. youth of the team, vs simple lack of skill. Pulisic does have a pretty good (for the US) goal/minute rate, but the lack of shots overall is just depressing.

472. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 03, 2022 at 11:32 AM (#6107747)

Shitty shot, but IT WAS AN ATTEMPT AT LEAST

473. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 03, 2022 at 11:33 AM (#6107748)

Memphis tries to gift the US a goal, unfortunately the player in position to take advantage was Haji Wright.

And of course he scores a second after I posted that. Basically accidentally.

474. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 03, 2022 at 11:35 AM (#6107749)

and somehow they score on a pass (not a shot) from Pulisic

475. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 03, 2022 at 11:39 AM (#6107750)

And more bad defending puts it back out of reach. All three goals were from a player left unmarked in the box.

476. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 11:53 AM (#6107753)

The US has really found much more success breaking down the Netherlands in the second half. They just wasted 35+ minutes in the first half doing nothing, which was a big mistake.

477. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 12:02 PM (#6107755)

That was a closer game than the scoreline. The US was done in by some shoddy defending, some very good finishing, and by wasting close to half the game while being down a goal. Playing the way they did today (including the coaching in this) I doubt they win more than 1 in 3, but it feels like there could have been potential for this game to be much more evenly matched.

478. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 12:06 PM (#6107756)

It looks like the Netherlands would be around 30% to advance over Argentina, if they face each other.

479. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 03, 2022 at 12:21 PM (#6107758)

Gabriel Jesus is out for the rest of the tournament. Bad news for Brazil, but I'm sure they've got five guys who can slot right in. Potentially worse news for Arsenal, who definitively do not have that.

Does make Arsenal a potential player for Pulisic, who wants out at Chelsea.

480. spivey Posted: December 03, 2022 at 01:01 PM (#6107762)

Per infogol, US had a higher xG than Netherlands. US defense was always the weak link (besides striker). And the 3rd goal, obviously US was chasing the game and not getting back. The Netherlands did a good job of man marking in the middle of the field, especially in the first half, which made it hard for the US to get good attacks going. But I think the story of the match was ultimately the Netherlands took their chances and the US didn't.

481. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 02:00 PM (#6107768)

Also that first goal by the Netherlands was way undervalued by xG. Second one probably a little as well. The US goal had a higher xG rating than both, almost as high as both put together, which is laughably wrong.

There's a little more to the story though, in that once the US went behind they didn't have any idea what to do for a long time. That won't show up in the xG, but long stretches of no xG for either side favors the leading team at least if teams are not very mismatched, and that period was a major period of win for the Netherlands.

482. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 02:48 PM (#6107775)

That half was dullsville. Things will have to pick up in the second as Australia comes out of their shell a bit. I would say that Argentina is biding their time until then, but they were equally unadventurous at 0-0.

483. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 03:12 PM (#6107780)

Argentina finally got their third shot of the game. It came because they did a good job of beating a pretty good press. And Australia has only started to press this half because they are trailing.

484. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 03:18 PM (#6107781)

Ugh. Game over. Australia can't win doing that.

485. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 03, 2022 at 03:37 PM (#6107784)

In the end, getting to the knockouts was a pretty good result for the US. I had slightly higher hopes than that because it's pretty clear that this starting 11 far out-strips any they've ever had before. But they're young, and getting out of the group stage ain't nothing for a country with no tradition in particular. If these guys stay healthy and they can add some legs off the bench, 2026 might be pretty interesting on home turf.

486. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 03:56 PM (#6107786)

I think getting out of the group stage is a good accomplishment, even in retrospect with Wales a but weaker than expected. This group was not an especially weak or anything.

The USMNT is not anywhere near as good as the best 8 teams in the world right now, which probably does not include the Netherlands either. They are right on the cusp of being top 16, maybe slightly lower if you include some of the teams that didn't make it to the WC. Of course almost any team can make it to the quarters with a lot of luck but getting there for a team like the US would have an overachievement.

487. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 03:57 PM (#6107788)

Wild! Australia had a great chance at the end. Not exactly the great Argentina performance today that people were expecting against this weak Australia side.

488. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 05:52 PM (#6107801)

The Netherlands are being given a much better chance than I thought, and maybe it's because of the games today: 39%.

489. spivey Posted: December 03, 2022 at 09:28 PM (#6107833)

Also that first goal by the Netherlands was way undervalued by xG. Second one probably a little as well. The US goal had a higher xG rating than both, almost as high as both put together, which is laughably wrong.

You can always pick apart individual xG items. It also had some weird toe poke that Bergwijn had at the end of the game while stretching and being closed down by the GK as higher than Pulisic's 3rd minute chance.

I think all in all, the US played pretty well. Yes there were stretches the US looked like they didn't know what to do offensively. That's ok imo, the US have less talent - we shouldn't expect them to just dominate. Netherlands rightly realized that the US midfield is what drives their team, it's the best unit of the team. So they just overloaded that and even were man marking Adams and the other guys. Netherlands has better players. Every one of their defenders is better than every defender on the US. They're not even starting de Ligt (or de Vrij, who plays for Inter).

But it's not just xG. US had more possession, more shots, more shots on target, better pass accuracy, more corners. Yes, some of the US xG came chasing the game, but they also gave up a huge xG chance chasing the game (the 3rd goal), so imo those even out a bit. It's a match that on a different day the US wins a fair bit. I'm happy with how the US played because they played their game, they pressed the Netherlands, played them tough, and did it with a young team where many of their best players weren't 100% match fit.

490. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 03, 2022 at 10:02 PM (#6107837)

I think the US did well in the second half, which was very even. I thought they were terrible in the first half after the first few minutes. The stats for the US in the first half were all better than the Netherlands in those stats you mentioned, but they were definitely not the better team in that half. By the time they played pretty well the game was effectively already over.

It's not so much that they lost but the way it happened that is a bit frustrating. At least 2 of the three Netherlands goals came from leaving a player wide, wide open in a dangerous area in the box, and for a long stretch of the game they didn't know what to do at all offensively. Also that they were behind the whole game--by 1 goal doing nothing, and by the time they started playing well were already down by 2. It was difficult to be too excited at any point really.

On another day where they don't make the same mistakes and have a better gameplan down a goal they maybe play the Netherlands even. That wouldn't surprise me, and overall I'm impressed with the team this tournament. That doesn't make the actual game today much less disappointing though.

491. spivey Posted: December 03, 2022 at 10:35 PM (#6107841)

It is interesting to watch you make emotional arguments about the USMNT when your whole persona is that xG is the only thing that matters and people are fools for thinking otherwise.

492. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: December 04, 2022 at 04:48 AM (#6107859)

You can always pick apart individual xG items.

If we are nitpicking xG results, I would add that the Neds had what I thought was a clear and obvious penalty not called for them. I was shocked that VAR didn't even seem to look at it.

493. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 04, 2022 at 10:59 AM (#6107866)

They ruled the big Giroud miss offside anyway, but it must have been in the buildup because Giroud was clearly not offside.

494. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 04, 2022 at 11:56 AM (#6107869)

Why in the world do players keep doing the stupid pause and hop before taking the penalty?

And, as is usual after I post something, he does it again and it works.

495. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 04, 2022 at 03:16 PM (#6107886)

These knock-out round games would be a lot more fun if the favorites didn't keep jumping out to 1-0 and then 2-0 leads.

496. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 04, 2022 at 04:12 PM (#6107889)

If they do 12 groups of 4 in 2026, I don't think they have decided on a format yet. One possibility is to let all second place teams advance but give "round of 32" byes to the 8 group winners with the most points. Each of these 8 could then face a winner of the 8 matches for the 16 remaining teams.

497. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 04, 2022 at 04:16 PM (#6107890)

These knockout games so far have not been particularly interesting. It does make for some tasty matchups in the quarters. Netherlands now at 40% and England at 45% to win their games. Those are both considered more evenly matched than any from this round.

498. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 04, 2022 at 08:30 PM (#6107909)

I'm guessing in 2026 they will do 12 groups of 4, with the top 8 third place teams making it through. That will make for a much less interesting group stage, but it's still better than 16 groups of 3.

With all the upsets in the last group game, all the groups except one had a third placed team with at least 4 points. That's pretty unusual.

499. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 04, 2022 at 09:21 PM (#6107932)

England at 45% to win their games.

Still think people are underestimating England. Also not confident enough about that to place any money on it. That said, I'd take the Lions over Les Bleus at the moment.

500. aberg Posted: December 05, 2022 at 09:50 AM (#6107990)

If they do 12 groups of 4 in 2026, I don't think they have decided on a format yet. One possibility is to let all second place teams advance but give "round of 32" byes to the 8 group winners with the most points. Each of these 8 could then face a winner of the 8 matches for the 16 remaining teams.

I like that this model would at least decrease the teams who take their foot off the gas in group game 3.

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