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Sunday, November 13, 2022

OT - World Cup Thread

Group A - Sunday/Monday/Friday/Tuesday
Z-Qatar 0-0-3 -6
Z-Ecuador 1-1-1 +1
Y-Senegal 2-0-1 1
X-Netherlands 2-1-0 +4

Group B - Monday/Friday/Tuesday
X-England 2-1-0 +7
Z-Iran 1-0-2 -3
Y-UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!!!!! (All games 2PM) 1-2-0 +1
Z-Wales 0-1-2 -5

Group C - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday
X-Argentina 2-0-1 +3
Z-Saudi Arabia 1-1-1-2
Z-Mexico 1-1-1 -1
Y-Poland 1-2-0 0

Group D - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday
X-France 2-0-1 +3
Y-Australia 2-0-1 -1
Z-Denmark 0-1-2 -2
Z-Tunisia 1-1-1 0

Group E - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday
Y-Spain 1-1-1 +6
Z-Costa Rica 1-0-2 -8
Z-Germany 1-1-1 +1
X-Japan 2-0-1 +1

Group F - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday
Z-Belgium 1-1-1 -1
Z-Canada 0-0-3 -5
X-Morocco 2-1-0 +3
Y-Croatia 1-2-0 +3

Group G - Thursday/Monday/Friday
Y-Brazil 2-0-0+3
Serbia 0-1-1 -2
Switzerland 1-0-1 0
Cameroon 0-1-1 -1

Group H - Thursday/Monday/Friday
Y-Portugal 2-0-0 +3
Ghana 1-0-1 0
Uruguay 0-1-1 -2
South Korea 0-1-1 -1

X won group
Y advanced
Z eliminated

Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: November 13, 2022 at 06:35 PM | 823 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: off topic, soccer

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501. SoSH U at work Posted: December 05, 2022 at 10:17 AM (#6107995)

Flip

502. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 05, 2022 at 10:56 AM (#6108002)

Japan's goal came on one of the most beautiful crosses you'll ever see -- except that it ricocheted off a defender and to Maeda's feet. I guess that's part of the reason you put balls in the box -- even if you don't hit your target, the ensuing chaos can be creative.

503. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 05, 2022 at 12:41 PM (#6108033)

You know what's cool? The Fox Sports internet feed freezes like clockwork every time a player approaches the ball for a penalty kick.

504. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2022 at 12:43 PM (#6108034)

Three penalty saves for the Crotian GK. All decent but none that hard.

505. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2022 at 02:14 PM (#6108070)

We actually had a very competitive game finally which unfortunately I had to miss most of. And now this one is over. If we are going to have any upsets in this round it will have to be tomorrow.

506. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2022 at 02:31 PM (#6108075)

I would have preferred seeing Brazil beating up on Uruguay, or at least seeing the game get nasty and Suarez cry some more.

507. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 05, 2022 at 02:41 PM (#6108078)

Do you remember when Cameroon beat Brazil? Yeah...

508. spivey Posted: December 05, 2022 at 02:51 PM (#6108085)

Brazil out here just ####### about.

509. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2022 at 03:05 PM (#6108094)

Both the Netherlands and Argentina have lower odds of winning the tournament than they did when the tournament started. That's partly because neither has looked that great, but also in large part because they will very likely have to beat Brazil along the way.

510. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2022 at 03:09 PM (#6108096)

Brazil played their worst 90+ minutes (until going behind) of the tournament against their weakest opponent. That seems to be what happens when a team isn't particularly motivated, at least in this tournament.

I wouldn't read anything into Spain's or Portugal's performance either. (France's either, though at least there it was clear from the opening whistle they were starting all the backups and winning was not a priority.)

511. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 05, 2022 at 03:50 PM (#6108112)

538 has England as a veeeeeeeeeeery slight favorite over France (51-49). I still think England is better than they're getting credit for.

Meanwhile, after today there will only be one side from outside of Europe & South America -- Morocco, who will probably gone after tomorrow. Kind of a bummer. I was pulling for Japan against Croatia, but there's not much you can go when a goalkeeper has the greatest ten minutes of his life while you're kicking penalties.

512. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 05, 2022 at 03:53 PM (#6108114)

It does seem like, one of these days a team from outside the core group of regular favorites is going to score a WC. It would be nice if it were an African or an Asian team. If it was the Netherlands it wouldn't really seem that odd, though they have kind of turned into the Chicago Cubs of the World Cup. But even if it was some off-brand European team like Croatia or Denmark or something, that would be cool.

513. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 05, 2022 at 04:22 PM (#6108125)

Brazil is about 80% to beat Croatia. Croatia is both not a top-tier team and also has not looked very good this tournament, except when they ran circles around Canada's midfield.

If Spain and Portugal both win tomorrow, 7 of the top 8 teams (by betting odds) will still be alive, with only Germany missing out. If Spain hadn't conveniently lost to Japan we could conceivably be looking at all 8. Belgium was number 9.

Part of this is because the most fancied of the next group of teams did not advance, starting with Belgium, but also Uruguay and Denmark. Croatia did advance, but did not face a top tier team. That left a pretty big gap between the top 8 (minus Germany) and the rest. The only close game we've had was the one where no top-tier team was playing.

Switzerland is not good enough to win the tournament, but they have a good chance of upsetting Portugal. After the 4 teams outside the top 8 above, they were probably next most favored coming in, and clearly in the top half of teams at the WC. Even if they win I would say they have very little shot against Spain if Spain advances though.

514. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: December 05, 2022 at 04:49 PM (#6108134)

but there's not much you can go when a goalkeeper has the greatest ten minutes of his life while you're kicking penalties.

Eh. Those penalties he saved were pretty fucking ####.

515. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 05, 2022 at 04:50 PM (#6108135)

I'm basically on the anybody-but-Portugal tip now. Ronaldo must retire without a World Cup.

516. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 05, 2022 at 04:53 PM (#6108136)

Those penalties he saved were pretty ####### ####.

I didn't actually get to see them, on account of Fox's awesome stream, which froze every time a player approached the ball to shoot.

517. Textbook Editor Posted: December 05, 2022 at 11:06 PM (#6108176)

Eh. Those penalties he saved were pretty ####### ####.

I do feel bad saying this, but those 3 saved penalty takes were probably the worst 3 takes I've ever seen taken by one team in one shootout.

That said, Croatia is likely complete toast against Brazil (as South Korea would have been had they won), so in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter.

518. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: December 06, 2022 at 04:55 AM (#6108198)

That said, Croatia is likely complete toast against Brazil (as South Korea would have been had they won)

Goddammit! What is it with people here confusing Japan And Korea! Korea literally just got smoked by Brazil!

But yes, those penalties were dreadful.

519. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 06, 2022 at 11:04 AM (#6108222)

The specifics around Qatar hosting have more than a few troubling issues. However, having a WC in a non-traditional location really creates an opportunity for people. All the Moroccan matches I've seen the crowd support has been outrageously good. Senegal had a similar thing going as well. It's nice to see those fans getting that opportunity.

520. spivey Posted: December 06, 2022 at 11:16 AM (#6108224)

Morocco aren't great, but they are good in a pretty entertaining way.

521. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 06, 2022 at 11:28 AM (#6108226)

This game is incredibly boring.

522. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 06, 2022 at 12:38 PM (#6108248)

523. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 06, 2022 at 12:48 PM (#6108249)

And Spain is gone. That's what they get for going for 2nd place in their group. Good riddance. And good for Morocco, although their style of play was very uninteresting.

524. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2022 at 12:49 PM (#6108250)

Couldn't watch the game today, but all the worry about Spain being fairly toothless appears to have been founded after all. I did see some of those weak penalty takes.

This game really opens the door for the France/England winner. Portugal too of course.

525. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 06, 2022 at 12:49 PM (#6108251)

There's still one team from outside Europe & SA alive! Though I wish it had been Japan, since they're actually interesting to watch.

526. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 06, 2022 at 12:54 PM (#6108252)

Lends more credence to the idea that Spain were trying against Japan...it's just kind of the way they play.

527. jmurph Posted: December 06, 2022 at 01:01 PM (#6108253)

Ronaldo is benched, according to ESPN. Man must be tough to have EVERYONE always out to get you, can't imagine taking any other lesson from this.

528. Swedish Chef Posted: December 06, 2022 at 01:03 PM (#6108254)

Announcer -- I think it's Lalas? He's dumb enough to be Lalas -- insisting over and over and over again that penalty shootouts are not luck.

That may be true at the extreme margin, but literally every study I've ever seen is that there is no way to predict who will win a shootout with reliability.

On one hand, yes, it's hard to predict, even England wins a shootout sometimes. On the other hand, if you take a penalty and the goalie saves or you miss the goal, you can't blame it on bad luck, it's all skill.

529. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2022 at 01:07 PM (#6108256)

If the goalie saves a penalty kick it is often at least partially bad luck for the kicker. Many identical kicks are surely not saved. It's a minority of converted penalties that are unsavable. I would guess less than 1/3.

Have to hit the frame of course.

530. SoSH U at work Posted: December 06, 2022 at 01:17 PM (#6108262)

If that first missed kick had been a foot inside, rather than off the post, the Moroccan keeper might have saved it anyway. He guessed right every time, and he got really far over to the corner on the first shot.

531. jmurph Posted: December 06, 2022 at 01:53 PM (#6108270)

If that first missed kick had been a foot inside, rather than off the post, the Moroccan keeper might have saved it anyway. He guessed right every time, and he got really far over to the corner on the first shot.

I'm not sure he even had to guess on the Busquets kick, it was so poorly struck.

532. SoSH U at work Posted: December 06, 2022 at 02:17 PM (#6108275)

I'm amazed at how much the color commentator sounds like Mary Carillo.

533. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: December 06, 2022 at 02:23 PM (#6108276)

LOL ... Ronaldo's replacement scores!

534. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2022 at 02:36 PM (#6108280)

Great. Another 2-0 lead by the significant favorite.

535. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: December 06, 2022 at 02:38 PM (#6108281)

I'm basically on the anybody-but-Portugal tip now. Ronaldo must retire without a World Cup.

How would you feel about Portugal winning, while Ronaldo rots on the bench, while having to pretend to be happy about it?

536. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2022 at 02:51 PM (#6108287)

Yeah this is great. The thing that could surpass it is if Santos tries to put him in, in extra time up by multiple goals, and Ronaldo storms off. Then gets sent on the next plane home.

537. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 06, 2022 at 03:13 PM (#6108290)

This is the best Portugal has looked all tournament. Funny that it comes with Ronaldo sitting out.

538. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 06, 2022 at 03:17 PM (#6108291)

How would you feel about Portugal winning, while Ronaldo rots on the bench, while having to pretend to be happy about it?

That would be great. I'm usually up for new countries winning the WC, and if Ronaldo just has to bathe in humiliation as it happens, all the better.

This is the best Portugal has looked all tournament. Funny that it comes with Ronaldo sitting out.

I'm increasingly of the opinion that he's fallen off a cliff due to age and isn't really a top-flight player anymore.

539. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 06, 2022 at 03:30 PM (#6108293)

Portugal - playing much better without Ronaldo. Announcers - obsessed with whether Ronaldo is coming on or not.

540. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: December 06, 2022 at 03:32 PM (#6108294)

You're saying Ronaldo is the new Poochie?

541. spivey Posted: December 06, 2022 at 03:34 PM (#6108296)

Ronaldo's replacement having a hat trick is brilliant stuff.

542. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 06, 2022 at 03:55 PM (#6108303)

You're saying Ronaldo is the new Poochie?

The Fox announcers were sure treating him that way.

543. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2022 at 04:04 PM (#6108305)

Betting odds for tournament winner (percentages):

            ORIGINAL    ROUND 16    CURRENT
brazil        19.5        29.5         35

france        12          15           18
argentina     15          16           13
england        9.5         9.5         12.5
portugal       5.5         7           12.5

netherlands    6.5         4            5.5

croatia        1.5         2            1.75
morocco        0.2         0.6          1.75

spain          9.5        12.5  **
switzerland    0.5         1
japan          0.2         1
usa            0.25        0.6
senegal        0.5         0.5
poland         0.3         0.3
south korea    0.2         0.25
australia      0.1         0.25

germany        7.5 **
belgium        5   * 
denmark        2.5 *
uruguay        1.5 *

serbia         0.5
mexico         0.3
ecuador        0.25
wales          0.2
cameroon       0.2
canada         0.15
ghana          0.15
qatar          0.15
iran           0.1
tunisia        0.1
saudia arabia  0.05
costa rica     0.05

* upset (out 1 round early)
** major upset (out 2 rounds early)

Argentina and the Netherlands are both still down from pre-tournament, and Croatia barely up (despite not being expected to get this far) in large part because Brazil looms. Also none have looked very good.

544. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2022 at 04:10 PM (#6108307)

Quarterfinal odds to advance:

brazil        84
argentina     60
portugal      72
france        55

545. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 06, 2022 at 04:12 PM (#6108308)

I get it that Argentina wasn't exactly masterly in their first game, but I still find it bizarre that their odds have gone *down* now that they're out of the group stage and through the first knockout round. This is still the same side that blew through qualifying without a loss, administering thrashings to Uruguay and Italy along the way. It's still captained by the greatest player of all time. It still has Di Maria to partner with him. It's still as deep as any team save Brazil.

They tripped on their own dicks against Saudi Arabia. It happens sometimes. But this team should still easily be the second-favorite, and by a fairly wide margin.

546. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2022 at 04:17 PM (#6108310)

this team should still easily be the second-favorite, and by a fairly wide margin.

I think it's probably a combination of 2 things. The first is they almost certainly have to beat Brazil, whereas the other favorites might get lucky and Argentina or the Netherlands beats Brazil instead. That's what happened 4 years ago when Belgium beat a superior Brazil. The second is that Argentina really hasn't looked good on offense almost the whole tournament. They haven't known what to do for large stretches now of multiple games. Whether that's more predictive than what they did in qualifying I'm not sure, but it has to carry some weight.

547. jmurph Posted: December 06, 2022 at 04:17 PM (#6108311)

I assume a big chunk of that giant Brazil-France odds gap is that Croatia have not been super impressive and France have to play England?

548. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 06, 2022 at 04:21 PM (#6108312)

I assume a big chunk of that giant Brazil-France odds gap is that Croatia have not been super impressive and France have to play England?

France has had injury problems, too. A fully healthy France would probably much better odds.

549. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 06, 2022 at 04:28 PM (#6108313)

Probably also worth noting that Argentina was about 90% to make the KOs, and also 90% to beat Australia. Each time they advanced they got a low boost (somewhat counteracted after the group stage from drawing weak Australia). In particular this last round they got little boost from advancing over Australia, which they were expected to do, which was likely more than counteracted by having their next opponents Netherlands and Brazil both winning. Add on top of that they had a poor game against Australia (competition adjusted) and it's not too much of a surprise their odds have gone down since the last round anyway.

550. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 06, 2022 at 04:39 PM (#6108318)

I would love to see Ronaldo float up to space in the middle of the World Cup final saying "My planet needs me."

[Fox note: "Ronaldo died on the way to his home planet."]

551. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: December 07, 2022 at 03:37 PM (#6108573)

I thought Argentina was overrated coming into the Tournament, so I think they are now roughly properly rated.

552. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2022 at 12:55 PM (#6108737)

This year there was a clear gap between the top nine teams (through Netherlands and Belgium) and the rest of the teams, starting with Denmark and Croatia. Unsurprisingly that's not always the case though.

In 2018 there was no notable gap in odds all the way through to Russia, who was host but definitely not a top team. It's debatable whether Croatia should have been considered a top team, but their pre-tournament odds were not much worse than Portugal or Uruguay, which themselves were not given much worse odds than England in 7th. Russia's were not much worse than Croatia either. (Top 6 in 2018 were Brazil/Germany/Spain/France/Argentina/Belgium.)

2014 was even messier. After the top 5 it was a log jam down to Portugal as 13th most favored. (Top 5 in 2014 were Brazil/Argentina/Germany/Spain/Belgium. The next 8 were France/Colombia/Italy/Netherlands/Uruguay/England/Chile/Portugal.)

All this is to say that we have 2 teams clearly outside the top group in the final 8 this year, with Morocco and Croatia. That seems about an average number, but it's not always so clear. In 2018 we had Russia/Croatia/Uruguay/Sweden in the last 8, none of which were in the top 8 or really given a real shot to win the whole thing pre-tournament, but of which only Sweden was a big surprise to get to the last 8. In 2014 the only team that made the quarterfinals that was not in the top 8 and considered to have very little shot was Costa Rica. In 2010 there was Ghana and Paraguay for sure, and maybe Uruguay as well. In 2006 it was probably only Ukraine, though Portugal was borderline as well. 2002 had the most clear suprises that I can recall, with the USA, South Korea, Senegal and Turkey. South Korea and Turkey made the semis (with Turkey beating Senegal to get there). 1998 had just Denmark who was not that much of a surprise, and Croatia who was right on the borderline anyway. 1994 had Romania and Bulgaria (with player of the tournament Stoichkov, who was one of the best players in the world at that time).

553. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 08, 2022 at 06:46 PM (#6108819)

Spain only had 2 shots before the 78th minute, and were apparently pretty dire until they made their subs. After they were much more dangerous, and played well enough in the last 50 minutes or so to get a goal, which they never actually got. They did allow some chances the other way in that time. Still for the vastly superior team they gave away so much of the game for nothing.

Morocco set up to defend against Spain's preferred style and Spain stubbornly took way too long to change. We saw the USMNT do that in the first half against the Netherland, and we saw the Netherlands do it the entire game against Ecuador. Sometimes coaches need to be a little more flexible before too much of the game gets away from them. (I'm actually a little more sympathetic here to the Berhalter and the USMNT, as they were underdogs.)

554. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 08, 2022 at 07:25 PM (#6108824)

I think Morocco is gettting something of a home field bounce. The games of theirs I’ve seen the crowds have been wild for them. That, combined with being disciplined and a few true world class players is working. I wouldn’t expect them to beat Portugal but I wouldn’t put it past them at all.

555. I am going to be Frank Posted: December 09, 2022 at 08:52 AM (#6108850)

Portugal has players willing to try risky passes, unlike Spain. For Portugal's sake - Ronaldo doesn't see the field unless it's in a blowout.

556. I am going to be Frank Posted: December 09, 2022 at 10:25 AM (#6108861)

That should be a red.

557. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2022 at 11:07 AM (#6108863)

Only 1 of 8 round of 16 games had a scoreless first half. We are off to a good start in the quarterfinals though. I think that's now 27 scoreless first halves in 57 games. We likely won't reach the coveted 50% now, but we've had a good run.

558. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 09, 2022 at 12:13 PM (#6108875)

What an unbelievable goal.

559. JJ1986 Posted: December 09, 2022 at 12:51 PM (#6108881)

I had to take a call and turned the game off after the first extra 15. Pretty shocked when I turned the tv back on.

560. sanny manguillen Posted: December 09, 2022 at 12:56 PM (#6108884)

Livakovic's wikipedia page just received this edit: "He is regarded as the greatest goalkeeper of all time and in January 2023 joined Manchester United for £300M."

561. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2022 at 01:30 PM (#6108890)

So Croatia gets one shot on goal and it's deflected in. Nice. I thought Croatia actually played pretty well considering the competition, but in no way would they be expected to advance on another day where the two teams play like that again.

562. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: December 09, 2022 at 01:33 PM (#6108892)

I had to take a call and turned the game off after the first extra 15. Pretty shocked when I turned the tv back on.

I can beat that. Last minute of extra time, the half appeared to be petering out, and it seemed like a good time to relieve myself of my first half pint. Came back to them discussing how heartbroken Croatia must be feeling.

So then I figured, obviously, if I stay and watch the second half of ET, it will just end 1-0. So I made the executive decision to go walk my dog. Came back just in time to see Marquinhos ball bounce of the goalpost, and Croatia going mental.

563. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 09, 2022 at 02:07 PM (#6108898)

Did these teams play in the semis in 2010? Or am I remembering wrong?

564. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2022 at 02:18 PM (#6108900)

Netherlands beat Uruguay in the 2010 semi-finals.

565. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2022 at 02:38 PM (#6108904)

With the Brazil result and now that pretty pass from Messi, Argentina are now the heavy favorite to win the tournament.

566. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 09, 2022 at 02:44 PM (#6108906)

1. It was the 2014 semifinal, which ended on penalty kicks. I remember it now, because I was listening on the radio driving north through the San Joaquin Valley and the signal faded out just before the kicks started.

2. They also met in the 1978 final, with the Netherlands managed to reach despite the fact that Cruyff had suddenly retired while still at his peak.

567. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2022 at 02:54 PM (#6108907)

By betting odds, Argentina are not actually heavy favorites over France (but are still favorites). Heavy favorites over all others.

568. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2022 at 02:58 PM (#6108908)

Disappointed that we had a goal that first half. I'm not sure what the odds of that were, but I would have put good money on these two not managing to score in the first half. 6 shots across the two teams was also probably an above par amount. 2 from inside the box was probably about what was expected.

569. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2022 at 03:12 PM (#6108911)

Croatia hasn't lost this tournament, but only has the 1 win against Canada. xGD of about -6.

570. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 09, 2022 at 03:20 PM (#6108912)

Argentinians sure have a thing for getting handsy with the ball.

571. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 09, 2022 at 03:50 PM (#6108918)

Yikes - some fireworks now. That shot into the bench should be a red, no?

572. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2022 at 03:52 PM (#6108920)

Fernandes should have been sent off. That absolutely has to be at least two yellows for him (tackle plus kick...)

573. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 09, 2022 at 03:52 PM (#6108921)

10 minutes of extra time. This thing ain't over.

574. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 09, 2022 at 03:54 PM (#6108922)

Argentina seems to be hanging on for dear life. Every ball into the box is panic time with all the Dutch giants in there.

575. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 09, 2022 at 04:00 PM (#6108925)

As a fairly unknowledgeable neutral observer, it appears Argentina has gotten the benefit of the doubt on more than their fair share of calls in this one.

576. The Gary DiSarcina Fan Club (JAHV) Posted: December 09, 2022 at 04:02 PM (#6108926)

Wow. Unbelievable. What a turn of events.

577. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2022 at 04:05 PM (#6108927)

Wow what a perfect execution on that goal. Probably helped to set it up that they had a kick from the exact location just a few minutes earlier.

578. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 09, 2022 at 04:06 PM (#6108928)

Holy #### is the best analysis I can give on that one. That was fantastic.

579. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2022 at 04:06 PM (#6108929)

If that second yellow had been given Argentina could have been ###### now.

If this goes to pens, it may be end up being the mythical 3+ hours soccer game.

I think that's the only game in the tournament where a team has come back from 2 to even draw level.

580. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2022 at 04:15 PM (#6108931)

South Korea came back from 2 down to lose to Ghana anyway. Cameroon came back from 2 down to draw Serbia. There have been something close to 30 games where a team had a 2-goal lead.

581. Fancy Pants Handle struck out swinging Posted: December 09, 2022 at 04:22 PM (#6108932)

If that second yellow had been given Argentina could have been ###### now.

Messi should have also picked up 2 yellow cards by now. Not getting one for that handball was ridiculous. They should be down to 9.

582. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2022 at 04:29 PM (#6108934)

We've seen 12 shots total in 105 minutes. 6 in each half and none so far in extra time. 1 was a penalty. 4 goals.

583. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2022 at 04:36 PM (#6108935)

I like how all these players are complaining about fouls that are very clear yellows.

584. I am going to be Frank Posted: December 09, 2022 at 04:41 PM (#6108936)

Wow both these matches are bonkers.

585. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2022 at 04:45 PM (#6108937)

Argentina had more shots in the last 10 minutes of the game than they had in the previous 110 minutes (7 v 6). Funny how facing the crapshoot of penalties tends to focus the minds of the favorite. Too little too late though.

586. Adam M

Posted: December 09, 2022 at 04:46 PM (#6108938)

Why did the Dutch play so passively in extra time? What they were doing at the end of regulation was working, and it seemed like they had all the momentum.

587. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 09, 2022 at 04:47 PM (#6108939)

I wonder if they were just out of gas. They had to do so much to turnover the two goal deficit I think they might have just been cooked

588. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 09, 2022 at 04:58 PM (#6108943)

Bummer of an ending for the Dutch, but this side isn't nearly as good as the one with Robben, van Persie, and Kuyt that went to the semis in consecutive seasons and came within inches of winning the whole thing in 2010.

Hearts in throats for Argentina, but with Brazil out they're the best team left and have a relatively easy opponent in the semis. Whoever wins England-France is probably going to have to go through Portugal to get to the final. Even if they do that, they're going to be exhausted when they get there.

589. TFTIO was writing C programs in the '90s Posted: December 09, 2022 at 05:04 PM (#6108945)

This was great.

590. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2022 at 05:22 PM (#6108948)

The oddsmakers no longer think Argentina is the best team in the tournament. France/England combined have significantly better odds than Argentina, and if France wins, even if they have to face Portugal, I'm guessing their odds won't really be any lower than Argentina's odds going into the semis. If France/Argentina were scheduled to play in 4 days, France would be favored. England/Portugal probably not that far behind Argentina now in terms of expected quality.

Argentina is currently 70% to beat Croatia, and 34% to win the tournament (so, currently about 50/50 against their final opponent, weighted most heavily to France but with England and Portugal being not unlikely either). Brazil was 84% to beat Croatia.

FWIW, 538 has the 4 favorites as basically dead even now, but that was true before the tournament also, except England was considered a step behind the other three.

591. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 09, 2022 at 05:27 PM (#6108949)

What I'm seeing is Argentina as a significant favorite and everybody else other than Morocco basically even at 538.

592. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 09, 2022 at 05:33 PM (#6108950)

Dead even in quality at 538, not dead even in chance to win the tournament. As you noted, Argentina has the easiest route remaining of any team, which gives them the highest odds. The oddsmakers don't think they are the best team (after Brazil) anymore though, as they did before the tournament started.

593. Howie Menckel Posted: December 09, 2022 at 05:34 PM (#6108951)

a moral victory, perhaps - but still a loser

52. Howie Menckel Posted: November 20, 2022 at 12:12 AM (#6106216)
ok, I have chosen the Dutch at 12-1.

easiest draw in the field, from what I can see, and they are pretty good.

not sure they can get through the main draw without winning a PK round, but am saying there's a chance.

594. spivey Posted: December 09, 2022 at 07:08 PM (#6108956)

On paper, Argentina's team feels way worse than England and France.

Bummer about Brazil going out imo. Brazil/Argentina would have been ####### wild.

595. /muteself 57i66135 Posted: December 09, 2022 at 09:59 PM (#6108964)

Free to read: What happened when Qatar World Cup security detained me for 25 minutes for wearing a t-shirt supporting LGBTQ rights, forcibly took my phone and angrily demanded that I remove my t-shirt to enter the stadium. (I refused.) Story: https://t.co/JKpXXETDkH pic.twitter.com/HEjr0xzxU5
— Subscribe to GrantWahl.com (@GrantWahl) November 21, 2022

America’s most prominent soccer reporter, Grant Wahl, has passed away while covering the World Cup in Doha, Qatar, according to his brother, Eric.

596. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 09, 2022 at 10:06 PM (#6108965)

Nothing to see here, please disperse.

That’s insane, I like to think I’m not a conspiracy theorist but boy howdy that’s something else.

597. Red Menace Posted: December 10, 2022 at 04:51 AM (#6108977)

A year ago I told myself I wasn't going to watch this world cup in protest of... everything. Of course I gave in. Friday was thrilling and I was glad I compartmentalized and watched the sports. But if this shitty petrol-state killed a US journalist I'm done with this whole wretched endeavor...

598. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: December 10, 2022 at 07:09 AM (#6108980)

He'd been feeling sick for weeks, from what I've read. I wouldn't jump to any conclusions.

599. Miserable, Non-Binary Candy is all we deserve CoB Posted: December 10, 2022 at 08:40 AM (#6108982)

Yeah, this was from an ESPN piece last night

U.S. media seated near him said Wahl collapsed while in the media press box at Lusail Iconic Stadium during extra time and could not be revived. Wahl was covering his eighth World Cup.

He wrote Monday that he had visited a hospital while in Qatar.

"My body finally broke down on me. Three weeks of little sleep, high stress and lots of work can do that to you,'' Wahl wrote. "What had been a cold over the last 10 days turned into something more severe on the night of the USA-Netherlands game, and I could feel my upper chest take on a new level of pressure and discomfort. I didn't have Covid (I test regularly here), but I went into the medical clinic at the main media center today, and they said I probably have bronchitis. They gave me a course of antibiotics and some heavy-duty cough syrup, and I'm already feeling a bit better just a few hours later. But still: No bueno.''

[edit] Ah, I see that was posted over in the other thread, but I owe no Coke, since I posted that snippet last night on Discord!

600. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: December 10, 2022 at 10:33 AM (#6108986)

Aside from Croatia, the only team that has one in PKs twice in the same tournament was Argentina in 1990. No team has had advanced to PKs three times in the same tournament, though Croatia was very close in 2018, winning over England in extra time in the semis after already going through twice on PKs.

Croatia has now done it twice, and this tournament is not over yet.

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