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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Sunday, November 13, 2022OT - World Cup ThreadGroup A - Sunday/Monday/Friday/Tuesday Group B - Monday/Friday/Tuesday Group C - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday Group D - Tuesday/Saturday/Wednesday Group E - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday Group F - Wednesday/Sunday/Thursday Group G - Thursday/Monday/Friday Group H - Thursday/Monday/Friday Jose is an Absurd Sultan
Posted: November 13, 2022 at 06:35 PM | 823 comment(s)
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I wouldn't read anything into Spain's or Portugal's performance either. (France's either, though at least there it was clear from the opening whistle they were starting all the backups and winning was not a priority.)
Meanwhile, after today there will only be one side from outside of Europe & South America -- Morocco, who will probably gone after tomorrow. Kind of a bummer. I was pulling for Japan against Croatia, but there's not much you can go when a goalkeeper has the greatest ten minutes of his life while you're kicking penalties.
If Spain and Portugal both win tomorrow, 7 of the top 8 teams (by betting odds) will still be alive, with only Germany missing out. If Spain hadn't conveniently lost to Japan we could conceivably be looking at all 8. Belgium was number 9.
Part of this is because the most fancied of the next group of teams did not advance, starting with Belgium, but also Uruguay and Denmark. Croatia did advance, but did not face a top tier team. That left a pretty big gap between the top 8 (minus Germany) and the rest. The only close game we've had was the one where no top-tier team was playing.
Switzerland is not good enough to win the tournament, but they have a good chance of upsetting Portugal. After the 4 teams outside the top 8 above, they were probably next most favored coming in, and clearly in the top half of teams at the WC. Even if they win I would say they have very little shot against Spain if Spain advances though.
Eh. Those penalties he saved were pretty fucking ####.
I didn't actually get to see them, on account of Fox's awesome stream, which froze every time a player approached the ball to shoot.
I do feel bad saying this, but those 3 saved penalty takes were probably the worst 3 takes I've ever seen taken by one team in one shootout.
That said, Croatia is likely complete toast against Brazil (as South Korea would have been had they won), so in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter.
Goddammit! What is it with people here confusing Japan And Korea! Korea literally just got smoked by Brazil!
But yes, those penalties were dreadful.
That may be true at the extreme margin, but literally every study I've ever seen is that there is no way to predict who will win a shootout with reliability.
This game really opens the door for the France/England winner. Portugal too of course.
That may be true at the extreme margin, but literally every study I've ever seen is that there is no way to predict who will win a shootout with reliability.
On one hand, yes, it's hard to predict, even England wins a shootout sometimes. On the other hand, if you take a penalty and the goalie saves or you miss the goal, you can't blame it on bad luck, it's all skill.
Have to hit the frame of course.
I'm not sure he even had to guess on the Busquets kick, it was so poorly struck.
How would you feel about Portugal winning, while Ronaldo rots on the bench, while having to pretend to be happy about it?
That would be great. I'm usually up for new countries winning the WC, and if Ronaldo just has to bathe in humiliation as it happens, all the better.
I'm increasingly of the opinion that he's fallen off a cliff due to age and isn't really a top-flight player anymore.
The Fox announcers were sure treating him that way.
Argentina and the Netherlands are both still down from pre-tournament, and Croatia barely up (despite not being expected to get this far) in large part because Brazil looms. Also none have looked very good.
They tripped on their own dicks against Saudi Arabia. It happens sometimes. But this team should still easily be the second-favorite, and by a fairly wide margin.
France has had injury problems, too. A fully healthy France would probably much better odds.
[Fox note: "Ronaldo died on the way to his home planet."]
In 2018 there was no notable gap in odds all the way through to Russia, who was host but definitely not a top team. It's debatable whether Croatia should have been considered a top team, but their pre-tournament odds were not much worse than Portugal or Uruguay, which themselves were not given much worse odds than England in 7th. Russia's were not much worse than Croatia either. (Top 6 in 2018 were Brazil/Germany/Spain/France/Argentina/Belgium.)
2014 was even messier. After the top 5 it was a log jam down to Portugal as 13th most favored. (Top 5 in 2014 were Brazil/Argentina/Germany/Spain/Belgium. The next 8 were France/Colombia/Italy/Netherlands/Uruguay/England/Chile/Portugal.)
All this is to say that we have 2 teams clearly outside the top group in the final 8 this year, with Morocco and Croatia. That seems about an average number, but it's not always so clear. In 2018 we had Russia/Croatia/Uruguay/Sweden in the last 8, none of which were in the top 8 or really given a real shot to win the whole thing pre-tournament, but of which only Sweden was a big surprise to get to the last 8. In 2014 the only team that made the quarterfinals that was not in the top 8 and considered to have very little shot was Costa Rica. In 2010 there was Ghana and Paraguay for sure, and maybe Uruguay as well. In 2006 it was probably only Ukraine, though Portugal was borderline as well. 2002 had the most clear suprises that I can recall, with the USA, South Korea, Senegal and Turkey. South Korea and Turkey made the semis (with Turkey beating Senegal to get there). 1998 had just Denmark who was not that much of a surprise, and Croatia who was right on the borderline anyway. 1994 had Romania and Bulgaria (with player of the tournament Stoichkov, who was one of the best players in the world at that time).
Morocco set up to defend against Spain's preferred style and Spain stubbornly took way too long to change. We saw the USMNT do that in the first half against the Netherland, and we saw the Netherlands do it the entire game against Ecuador. Sometimes coaches need to be a little more flexible before too much of the game gets away from them. (I'm actually a little more sympathetic here to the Berhalter and the USMNT, as they were underdogs.)
I can beat that. Last minute of extra time, the half appeared to be petering out, and it seemed like a good time to relieve myself of my first half pint. Came back to them discussing how heartbroken Croatia must be feeling.
So then I figured, obviously, if I stay and watch the second half of ET, it will just end 1-0. So I made the executive decision to go walk my dog. Came back just in time to see Marquinhos ball bounce of the goalpost, and Croatia going mental.
2. They also met in the 1978 final, with the Netherlands managed to reach despite the fact that Cruyff had suddenly retired while still at his peak.
If this goes to pens, it may be end up being the mythical 3+ hours soccer game.
I think that's the only game in the tournament where a team has come back from 2 to even draw level.
Messi should have also picked up 2 yellow cards by now. Not getting one for that handball was ridiculous. They should be down to 9.
Hearts in throats for Argentina, but with Brazil out they're the best team left and have a relatively easy opponent in the semis. Whoever wins England-France is probably going to have to go through Portugal to get to the final. Even if they do that, they're going to be exhausted when they get there.
Argentina is currently 70% to beat Croatia, and 34% to win the tournament (so, currently about 50/50 against their final opponent, weighted most heavily to France but with England and Portugal being not unlikely either). Brazil was 84% to beat Croatia.
FWIW, 538 has the 4 favorites as basically dead even now, but that was true before the tournament also, except England was considered a step behind the other three.
52. Howie Menckel Posted: November 20, 2022 at 12:12 AM (#6106216)
ok, I have chosen the Dutch at 12-1.
easiest draw in the field, from what I can see, and they are pretty good.
not sure they can get through the main draw without winning a PK round, but am saying there's a chance.
Bummer about Brazil going out imo. Brazil/Argentina would have been ####### wild.
That’s insane, I like to think I’m not a conspiracy theorist but boy howdy that’s something else.
[edit] Ah, I see that was posted over in the other thread, but I owe no Coke, since I posted that snippet last night on Discord!
Croatia has now done it twice, and this tournament is not over yet.
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