Croatia has close to -8 xG in their last 4 games (none of which they won either). That's very bad. Opponents have mostly been tough though, so they deserve a modicum of slack. Still, they won't finish the tournament with the most negative xG, but only because Costa Rica.

Croatia came in here solidly in the middle of the second tier of teams, so they should be nowhere near a semifinal, but winning a round of 16 game would only have been a mild surprise. To my mind though they've looked quite a bit worse than that here. If I had to rank teams by only performance in this tournament and not by results or expectation coming in, they'd definitely be in my bottom 10. I'm not exactly thrilled Argentina made the final after what happened in the Netherlands game, but I'm so glad it's not Croatia.

Without lawyering it up too much I think there was no way for the player to avoid the keeper there. That's the difference. The keeper was second to the ball and while he pulled out of the challenge he still impeded the player without playing the ball at all. I think if you could make a case that the player could have reasonably avoided contact it would be a different story, I don't think you can here though.


That's fair. I felt like maybe he could have avoided him/leg didn't matter since he mostly hit him in the groin, but I think it's fair that the keeper hadn't been there long enough to really establish position.

Croatia looked very good against Canada (better than anyone else), but yeah, mostly terrible besides that.

Croatia came in here solidly in the middle of the second tier of teams, so they should be nowhere near a semifinal, but winning a round of 16 game would only have been a mild surprise.

All respect to Japan for what they did in the group, but they were definitely a friendly draw for Croatia in the round of 16. And of course Croatia only even made the round of 16 because Lukaku missed 4 chances, Belgium's xG was something like 3 that game.

Oh yeah I just meant coming into the tournament, Croatia getting to the last 8 would have only been a mild surprise. But now that you mention it they were very likely to play Germany or Spain (well, maybe 75% likely assuming they made it out of the group), so probably advancing out of the round of 16 was never really expected to be in the cards, and should have been considered a pretty big surprise were it to happen.

As it was, they were fairly strongly favored to beat Japan and were probably actually outplayed in the game anyway.

As far as I can tell from having watched most of the Belgium and Argentina games, and parts of the Brazil and Japan games, and also looking at the stats for all the Croatia games, the idea that Croatia suddenly played a bad game at the wrong time is pure fantasy. Considering the way they played, pretty much every little thing had to go their way for them even to be in the tournament at this point, probably including Japan beating Spain and Germany.

Unlike Croatia, Morocco really has to a large extent stifled their opposition's ability to get good looks. Morocco has given up about 6 xGA in 5 games (1.2 per game) whereas Croatia has given up about 12.5 in 6 games (2.1 per game). Morocco has had some tough opponents as well, though not quite as tough as Croatia. They were also supposed to be quite a bit weaker coming into the tournament.

Morocco has been a team playing over their heads, executing their game plan extremely well, and riding a little luck to pull off some big upsets. Full credit to them for getting this far. Croatia, no.

This is the case of a game where the teams are so uneven it's likely Morocco's best strategy is to not really push much to try to level things until the last 15/20 minutes or so. France on the other hand should be trying to use the length of the game to press their superiority a bit to put the game out of reach.

Sadly, an early goal by France slows the game down since France loses some urgency to score and Morocco gains little urgency for now.

Had it's moments but was never really in doubt, due to that early France goal.

We had a great quarterfinal round, but the round of 16 and the semis were not very good. In large part it was due to the mismatches in both those rounds.

Final looks very, very tasty now.

It is set up for a perfect capstone to Messi's career if Argentina can win. Defeating the reigning champs in his last World Cup. Though I do think England would have been a tougher test.

I just revisited the Guardian's minute-by-minute for France-Argentina in the round of 16 in 2018. (Doubt we'll get 7 goals in this final). The writer said this after the game ended:

Have we just seen Lionel Messi’s last ever World Cup game? It’s baffling to think that he’s never scored a goal in a knockout game. It will be understandable if he decides to call time on his international career.

Now four years later Messi is still around, playing excellently in this World Cup, and the same two teams are facing off in the final.

It would be less fun, I think, if Messi's WC play lived up to his club play. This year has been his chance to say, "See? There really is no football environment in which I do not excel."

Messi was still best in world and 31 years old at that time. It was incredibly likely he would be playing and still very good at this moment in time.

The family will release a statement as to cause of death soon. I no longer suspect foul play. It was not PE. https://t.co/OKRV6XEvgL

— Eric Wahl (@ziplamak) December 13, 2022

Odds for the final are as close to 50/50 as you can get. France is about 50.5% to be champion.

Croatia is about 55% for third place.

My CRUYFF predictions came closer to true than one would expect -- Messi is finally having the WC we all have wanted to see from him, Argentina's in the final, a non-Europe/SA team made the semis. Hell, England even outplayed its opponent in the quarters, and British media has been a shitshow.

Anyway, for Sunday's match, CRUYFF predicts Argentina 2 - 1 France. Messi with a goal and an assist, Di Maria and Griezmann with the other goals.

Number of times Mbappe falls over for no reason: 12.

Not including the England/France game where France was only a minor favorite, betting odds predicted just over 3 upsets in the 13 games we've had in the KOs so farm which matches the 3 we've had: Morocco over Spain, Morocco over Belgium, and Croatia over Brazil. 2 of the 3 were in the quarterfinals though, which is a little unusual.

Number of times Mbappe falls over for no reason: 12.

Oh man of all the players in this game to single out for this, I don't think he'd make my top 10!

I meant Morocco over Portugal above. Morocco over Belgium was one of the true group stage upsets.

2 of the 3 were in the quarterfinals though, which is a little unusual.

Where would you expect them? The quarters seems like the round that would be most likely to happen. The round of 16 still has too many lesser teams that are just not able to keep up while the quarters is generally good teams across the board. And of course once you've had the upsets in the quarters the semis get less likely because there is a greater gulf in talent than there otherwise would have been.

If teams are too evenly matched I wouldn't even really call that an upset for these purposes, as noted by England against France which I counted as too even to result in an upset, even though France was a 55% favorite. I would expect most upsets to be in the round of 16. I might look back and see what actually happened in prior years when I get a chance.

Ah. I was assuming you were calling an "upset" for these purposes any game where the underdog won regardless of variance. I guess with that in mind how many games COULD an upset have occurred? I don't know what the odds were but off the top of my head pretty much every game in the quarters and semis (except the two Morocco games) would have been within 60-40 likelihoods.

Yeah 40/60 is borderline (e.g. Netherlands, Argentina) but I would count that as a notable upset for this purpose.

If you count 60/40 as sufficient, then every game so far could have had an upset except England/France. It's not like that every year though.

Odds for the round of 16:

Netherlands   67
Argentina     90
France        88
England       78
Croatia       63
Brazil        89
Spain         78
Portugal      67

Quarterfinal odds to advance:

brazil        84
argentina     60
portugal      72
france        55

Semis odds to advance:

argentina     71
france        78  

2018 had three notable upsets, one each in the octos (Russia over Spain), the quarters (Belgium over Brazil), and the semis (Croatia over England). 3-4 games were too close to have real upsets.

2014 I don't think had any. Even Brazil as hosts were only very small favorites over Germany. (Not counting the third place game, where Netherlands beat Brazil.)

2010 had just one: Netherlands over Brazil in the quarters. Germany over Argentina in the semis was only a minor upset.

2006 had two: Portugal over England and France over Brazil, both in the quarters. Ukraine over Switzerland, Portugal over Netherlands, and France over Spain, all in the octos, were only minor upsets, as was Italy over Germany in the semis.

2002 had four: South Korea over Italy, Senegal over Sweden, and USMNT over Mexico (2-0) in the octos, and South Korea over Spain in the quarters.

1998 had two: Denmark over Nigeria in the octos, Croatia over Germany in the quarters. France over Brazil in the final was a small upset.

Before 1998 there were only 6 groups so third place teams made it too. I didn't look back further.

There was only one major upset in the semis (Croatia over England 2018), and none in the finals. On the other hand, there were lots of quarters upsets, and definitely by far the most by percentage once you take into account the number of games.

Netherlands over Brazil in the quarters.

This was a great ####### match. My brother & I watched it in a Brazilian bar in Alphabet City. I had just moved to New York and he had just finished his junior year at NYU. You have never seen a group of people more heartbroken than a hundred Brazilian expats on a boiling hot day after their brilliant team has tumbled to an opponent they expected to dominate.

Also the match that made me a fan of Dirk Kuyt, a dude I'd never really heard of before that tournament.

We've had only one close to even matches in the KOs this year and I think the tournament has suffered a little for it. So far we've really only had France/England, and we will get one more tomorrow with France v Argentina.

Out of the 15 games each of the last few years (team advancing from each pair listed first), listing games close to 50/50 ...

2018 had 4: France/Argentina, Uruguay/Portugal, and Sweden/Switzerland in the octos, and France/Belgium in the semis. The slightly favored team advanced in half of them (France both times).

2014 had 5: CostaRica/Greece in the octos, Germnany/France in the quarters, Germany/Brazil and Argentina/Netherlands in the semis, and Germany/Argentina in the finals. The favorites advanced in four of the five, with only Germany pulling the very minor upset over Brazil.

2010 had 4: Ghana/USA and Germany/England in the octos, Germany/Argentina in the quarters, and Spain/Germany in the semis. All were slight upsets except Spain over Germany.

2006 had 6: Portugal/Netherlands, Ukraine/Switzerland, and France/Spain in the octos, Germany/Argentina in the quarters, Italy/Germany in the semis, and Italy/France in the finals. Four of these resulted in minor upsets, with only Germany over Argentina and Italy over France being expected.

2002 had 3: Turkey/Japan in the octos, and Brazil/England and Turkey/Senegal in the quarters. Turkey pulled the minor upset both times (and did it again in the third place game. Like Morocco they were never favored in the KOs). England was only a slight underdog to Brazil that year, but could not take advantage after losing the lead and Brazil going down to 10 with 30+ minutes left. That game featured the GK error by Seaman on the Ronaldinho free kick.

1998 had 5: Argentina/England and Croatia/Romania in the octos, France/Italy and Netherlands/Argentina in the quarters, and France/Brazil in the finals. The only upset was France over Brazil, but I'm not sure about the Crotia/Romania game so it's possible Romania was a slight favorite.

27 close matches in 6 years--4.5 per year.

So we will have had just 2 close matchups and 3 big upsets. 4 of 5 in the quarters or later. Only 1 in the semis or final.

2018 had 4 close matchups and 3 big upsets. 3 out of the 7 in the quarters or later. 2 in the semis or final.
2014 had 5 close matchups and 0 big upsets. 4 out of the 5 in the quarters or later. 3 in the semis or final.
2010 had 4 close matchups and 1 big uspet. 3 out of the 5 in the quarters or later. Only 1 in the semis or final.
2006 had 6 close matchups and 2 big uspets. 5 out of the 8 in the quarters or later. 2 in the semis or final.
2002 had 3 close matchups and 4 big upsets. 3 out of the 7 in the quarters or later. None in the semis or final.
1998 had 5 close matchups and 2 big upsets. 4 out of the 7 in the quarters or later. Only 1 in the semis or final.

I would call this year below average in terms of knockout stage intrigue, but it has certainly had its moments.

Also the match that made me a fan of Dirk Kuyt, a dude I'd never really heard of before that tournament.

One of my favorite players. He struck me as the kind of guy you'd want to have as a teammate. He just did all the little things and never seemed to be out for himself.

Morocco have looked tired today. I'm sure some of that is a lack of energy for the third place game but they've made a number of uncharacteristic* errors on clearances and the like.

* at least for this tournament, I'm not any kind of Moroccan football expert.

Has any team ever cared about the third place game?

I don't know how much they cared but the reactions of the two teams at the end certainly suggested they cared. Not "World Cup Final" level caring but a hell of a lot more than a friendly.

I think teams generally do care. A lot of the world is still watching, and to some extent they are playing for pride and their fans.

Winning the third place game is probably lower priority than in any other game at the world cup other where a team has already been eliminated or clinched their group, but it still matters much more than a friendly anyway.

The last 7 world cups KO stage tally. "Good" games are counted mostly as games that were still in doubt late, and where the big favorite didn't jump out to an early lead that they never relinquished.

2022: 3 major upsets, 0 minor upsets, 2 even matchups, 6 good games (2 octos, 4 quarters, 0 semis, final still to be played).
2018: 3 major upsets, 2 minor upsets, 4 even matchups, 11 good games (7 octos, 2 quarters, 2 semis)
2014: 0 major upsets, 1 minor upset, 5 even mathchups, 12 good games (7 octos, 3 quarters, 1 semi, 1 final). Despite all the exciting games, the only upset was the infamous Germany over Brazil (7-1), which was a minor upset and does not count as a good game by this measure.
2010: 1 major upset, 3 minor uspets, 4 even matchups, 10 good games (4 octos, 3 quarters, 2 semis, 1 final).
2006: 2 major upsets, 4 minor upsets, 6 even matchups, 11 good games (6 octos, 3 quarters, 1 semi, 1 final).
2002: 4 major upsets, 2 minor upsets, 3 even matchups, 11 good games (6 octos, 3 quarters, 1 semi, 1 final).
1998: 2 major upset, 1 or 2 minor upsets, 5 even matchups, 11 good games (5 octos, 4 quarters, 2 semis). This final does not count as a good game by this measure, but was still very much in doubt until France got their second early in the second half. It gets some bonus points for being a minor upset and for the host winning.

The worst final since 1998 was, in my opinion, the one from 2018. France was a big favorite, took the early lead, and the game only felt like it was really in doubt for parts of the first half while it was level. Virtually all games have moments where things could have gone the way of the underdog (Morocco hitting the post on the overhead kick in the semis, for example), but mere moments of doubt doesn't make a game good for me--has to be prolonged excitement. The 2018 final did not have that. I like goals too, but to me what really makes a game exciting first and foremost is a close scoreline where the big favorite is not leading, and second, open and attacking play.

2022 is notable for how few games were really in doubt and good games to enjoy for a neutral. I would call it the least interesting knockout stage of the world cup since it moved to 32 teams in 1998. The quarters were fantastic but the other two rounds were notably uninteresting, in each case probably the worst in the last 7 world cups. Even a very good final probably won't save this world cup from being one of the least interesting of the last 2.5 decades. I didn't look back further. Couple that with the bribery and corruption and the idiotic location, and it will likely be remembered as one of the worst world cups ever.

The knockout stage has been such a snooze. France England and Netherlands Argentina were about the only truly exciting games. Brazil Croatia was a great extra period but other than that I thought wasn’t that good.

anybody home?

South America has won 7 of the 10 matchups with Europe in the finals, but that's really because they won the first 4 more than half a century ago, three by Brazil and one by Argentina. They've split the last 6, starting with Argentina in 1986. I thinkl the favorites won all of them, except when France beat Brazil in 1998.

Game is now a true 50/50 by betting odds.

Lloris down not sure what happened there.

I was surprised to see DiMaria in the lineup but he's looked really good so far (as I type that he skies one natch). France a bit like Morocco yesterday, they look just a bit off it. Not playing badly but not playing as crisply as they have been.

Argentina not going full Netherlands 2010 but they are taking shots when they get them.

penalty that looked reallyi ticky tack

I thought so too but man you can't give the ref that chance. What a great penalty by Messi.

Yeah, that was weak. This is what drives me crazy about soccer...too often the penalty does not fit the crime.

the good news is that the ARG goal should put a little more urgency into FRA game.

France is getting outclassed again.

Wonder if the virus is taking it out of France a bit. They are definitely off their game right now.

OK, now that was a real goal. Well executed.

That was a beautiful goal.

goodbye FRA. counter attack set up by a series of great touch passes

I can't help but think this match would have been more competitive if England hadn't allowed France to steal that game a few days ago.

That was exquisite.

good pt. by Jose. The ref seems to be calling a really tight game.

Do they no longer spray paint the line when they do a free kick? That was so much fun with everyone cheating up

Giroud off. Wow.

Dembele has been awful so yeah but I'm shocked at Giroud. Wouldn't expect to take off a goal scorer. I think Holden is right though, it's probably about a change of formation.

Di Maria was Argentina's best player in the first half. Starting him turned out to be the right move.

Argentina's midfield completely owned France's especially for the first 30 minutes.

Was the card for simulation, or what?

did he give Fernandez a yellow for diving?

ARG still attacking, still fighting for the ball at midfield. Its been all ARG. FRA had a number of silly turnovers in the early going as well.

I count only three real attacks for FRA, that header at 19' was probably the only real chance. I guess whatever happened at 35'; before the counter attack 2nd goal, was some sort of attack for FRA. After that nothing.

FRA would do well to flop, this guy is calling a really tight game.

The penalty was very soft. Di Maria felt a light hand on his back and dived, and got lucky that the feet tangled afterwards. It probably gets called fairly often but I bet would not be given on a VAR review if not given on the field.

France can't blame the refs though. They've been beaten soundly to this point.

I thought he grabbed DeMaria's shirt but yeah, it does get called quite often so...

ARG back on the attack, they are providing entertainment

My brother reports that his twitter feed is full of people speculating that Grioud is recovering from the flu, which might explain why he came off so quickly.

Despite or maybe because of Argentinas dominance this has been an entertaining game. Early goals open games up.

Yeah, that was weak. This is what drives me crazy about soccer...too often the penalty does not fit the crime.

The sport has improved greatly in the last 20-30 years, but ultimately I agree.

I think it's a fundamental flaw of the game that penalty kicks - and the extreme likelihood of a rare goal resulting from them - are so arbitrarily handed out.

While I have generally enjoyed watching the World Cup this year, that fundamental flaw will continue to keep me from following the sport otherwise.

that's ok - they clearly don't need me (or many others who feel the same way).

and yes, it helps a little that Argentina has dominated the game. but am still not satisfied.

90 minutes til NFL main window !

EDIT: and yes, I kept watching and saw France tie it up.
makes the bogus Argentina penalty kick all the more annoying, alas.

It will be pretty lame in my opinion if Messi wins the golden ball because he scored 4 penalties. He only had 2 goals from open play.

Well now.

Well, this is going to be interesting.

Ok here we go.

That was incredible.

Jesus

Holy Schnikes.

Well well well now.

OMG Mbape with the equalizer

Holy ####

If France wins this tournament after being thoroughly outplayed by both England and Argentina I'm going to be annoyed.

This has not been an open game in my view, as it's been too one-sided. France has two shots now. None through 60 minutes, and have very seldom looked dangerous at all. We could be in for an exciting finish though. It's a bit of a cookie-cutter of the Netherlands/Argentina game through 80 minutes.

edit: and now!

WOW!

Should be a fun 10-15 minutes!!

this is nuts

Cant help but think if ARG was playing more conservatively FRA would not have got the equalizer that quickly.

The game has been tightly called but very fair I think

who is more likely to win now? Obviously ARG outplayed them for 80 min but what state of mind are they in?

holy ####### ####

This went from a total snoozer to a manic thriller over the course of 90 seconds.

Argentina took the initial lead in all 7 games they played, and gave it up 3 times. They even had a little but of trouble holding on against Australia in a 4th game.

That must be some kind of record.

that last attack in stoppage time: did the attack begin before the 8 min was done? not sure

Mesi rocket at min 6 of stoppage just barely deflected.

If France wins this tournament after being thoroughly outplayed by both England and Argentina I'm going to be annoyed.

Im totally torn: on the one hand they dont deserve to win on the other hand I want to see a great game.

This game changed dramatically after 65 minutes or so, when Di Maria came off. France continued to get better when they brought in their subs in the 71st minute.

France were definitely the better team over the last 20+ minutes.

Wonder if Scaloni should have been more aggressive with changes. Only one sub in the first 90. In retrospect maybe a sub after the first goal to just settle things.

holy #### again

this is ####### incredible

What Voxter said. This is sensational. Great players doing great things in the biggest stage.

Oh.

My.

God.

So happy for messi

did he call a hand ball?

Crazy

Damn.

why the hand ball?

But I was told when Kane missed that it's clearly stupid to have the same player take two penalties in one game.

####, spoke too soon

Both teams playing prevent defenses? :)


And we go to PKs.

That kick save was insane.

Wow

End to end right before extra time is over, neither team settling for penalties there, that was for sure.