he seems popular! I wonder if this will push him up over $200 mil.

Kim is supposed to be a really good SS. The Padres can't really move Xander to 3B. And they still have Tatis, but maybe he's just going to play RF forever.

I think the following four statements are all true:

1) A free agent seen as an excellent shortstop will generally command more money than an excellent player at another position.
2) A free agent seen as willing and able to move to another position on the diamond will generally command more teams that interested than somebody who is seen as SS-only.
3) Bogaerts is (presumably) looking for the most money he can get in this bite at free agency. Unless he decides to take a short-term deal so that he can improve his value on the free agent market in a year or two (this seems unlikely), this is his real shot to cash in.
4) Like EBay, a free agent player is worth as much as the team willing to pay him the most.

So I think this comes down to which dynamic will push his value up the highest. Either it will be because a few teams see him as a long-term outstanding shortstop, (low supply!); or a larger number of teams creating upward bidding because he is fulfilling a wider array of teams' needs (high demand!). Whatever will get him more money, that's what he'll do, right?

2) A free agent seen as willing and able to move to another position on the diamond will generally command more teams that interested than somebody who is seen as SS-only.

I'm not sure we have enough real-world examples to know. It's tautological in the sense that a willingness to move (assuming anybody has ever refused) expands the market and therefore the competition for services but beyond that? That is sure, if Story had refused to move to 2B then the Red Sox probably don't sign him and presumably that was the best offer he got. (Nitpick: surely whether you are "seen" as willing to move is pretty immaterial. The team makes an offer contingent on the player moving ... and if the agent thinks team A should be interested in their client as a 3B and their client is willing to move to 3B, the agent will let the team know.)

Kim is supposed to be a really good SS. The Padres can't really move Xander to 3B. And they still have Tatis, but maybe he's just going to play RF forever.

Kim is a really good SS, but he's better suited to utility IF because he can also play 3B and 2B quite well while his bat is not as well suited to starter/everyday player. If Bogaerts is willing to slide over to 2B, which I have no idea whether he's suited to or not, this could allow Cronenworth to slide over to 1B to fill the hole there. I'd say this is the likely scenario, or possibly see if Bogaerts is willing to move to the OF as I don't think the Tatis in the OF experiment/experience was successful. He really wants to play SS and he does seem a tad temperamental/immature

Bogaerts defense ratings improvements seem to track with the Red Sox shift % increase over the last several years. Without the shift next year to cover him, there is a pretty decent chance his defense ratings move back towards double digit negative.

Kim had a 105 wRC+; I think that's just fine for plus defense at short.
I also don't see SD signing Xander, though they've surprised me before.

If Bogaerts is willing to slide over to 2B, which I have no idea whether he's suited to or not, this could allow Cronenworth to slide over to 1B to fill the hole there.

Shouldn't Bogaerts be the one to move to 1B in that scenario? Cronenworth has experience at 2B and is good there. Bogaerts doesn't, and probably won't be.

If he goes to the Padres, I think he plays SS in year 1 (Kim to 2B, Cronenworth to 1B to begin the year, Tatis in the mix later) and then either moves to 3B in 2024 (if Machado leaves) or 1B/OF/DH (if Machado stays) with better fielders (some combo of Kim/Tatis/Cronenworth/Merrill/FA) covering 2B/SS.

Bogaerts defense ratings improvements seem to track with the Red Sox shift % increase over the last several years. Without the shift next year to cover him, there is a pretty decent chance his defense ratings move back towards double digit negative.

I'm not sure how directly those things can be linked, but I fear you might be on to something. I'm of the opinion that getting a bat-first SS for the season where they move away from the shift is not a great idea. For that kind of money I get one of the other three that really is an excellent glove and can stay at SS longer.

Giving Bogaerts SS money and then playing him at 1B sounds sub-optimal. Late season crash and burn notwithstanding, Josh Bell has a better career OPS+ and will surely cost a lot less.

then either moves to 3B in 2024 (if Machado leaves)

Machado is just 3 months older than X and is the better player ... they'd probably be better off convincing Manny now to stay than signing a new deal with X. Of course what the Padres most need is a healthy, productive (while un-roided) Tatis which, if they had one, would make X totally superfluous. Manly a team with Machado, Tatis, Cronenworth and Kim in-house already surely has a better use for its resources than X. I'd be looking at Rodon ... or figuring out what it would take to keep Soto around ... along with offering Manny an extra year or an extra $5 per year to keep him around.

 Der-K's tired of these fruits from poisoned trees Posted: November 30, 2022 at 05:11 PM (#6107374) Kim had a 105 wRC+; I think that's just fine for plus defense at short.

You may be right. He took a big step forward last season from 2021, but it was mostly against LH pitching, he hit RH about the same. With his defensive skills he'd probably be fine for another year or two as a starter in the IF. I could see him at 2B with Cronenworth moving to 1B if that's the way they want to play it. I don't see him displacing Tatis at SS though.

Shouldn't Bogaerts be the one to move to 1B in that scenario? Cronenworth has experience at 2B and is good there. Bogaerts doesn't, and probably won't be.

If he goes to the Padres, I think he plays SS in year 1 (Kim to 2B, Cronenworth to 1B to begin the year, Tatis in the mix later) and then either moves to 3B in 2024 (if Machado leaves) or 1B/OF/DH (if Machado stays) with better fielders (some combo of Kim/Tatis/Cronenworth/Merrill/FA) covering 2B/SS.

I hadn't thought about Bogaerts moving that far down the D spectrum, but the latter scenario you describe makes as much sense as anything else I can think of if they really do have interest in him. Still, I'm with Walt, the team needs to do everything it can to make sure Machado stays after 2023.