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Monday, July 26, 2021

Padres Discussing Eric Hosmer Trades

Eric Hosmer “has surfaced in recent trade discussions,” according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The motivation for such discussions seems to be at least partly connected to the Padres’ luxury tax situation, as Rosenthal notes,”The most recent calculation, provided by MLB around the All-Star break, has the Padres over the CBT threshold by roughly $2 million.”  On a related note, the Padres had the Pirates pick up much of the tab for recent acquisition Adam Frazier.

After going 71-91 in the 2017 season, the Padres signed Hosmer to a huge eight-year, $144MM deal, sending a signal they were ready to compete. Since that time, the Padres have only gotten more aggressive, handing out even bigger contracts to Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., along with a number of high profile trades for marquee names such as Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. This has succeeded at pushing the Friars into contention. They got as far as the NLCS in 2020 and currently hold down a wild card spot in 2021. Hosmer’s contribution to the club, however, has been mercurial. In 2018 and 2019, his wRC+ tallies were 95 and 91, producing negative fWAR numbers in the process. The shortened 2020 season seemed to be a bounceback, with a wRC+ of 127 and an fWAR of 0.9. But 2021 has seen him trail off again, with his wRC+ down to 96 and his fWAR in negative territory again.  Hosmer’s contract still has four years remaining on it after 2021.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 26, 2021 at 12:10 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: eric hosmer, padres

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   1. Rowland Office Supplies Posted: July 26, 2021 at 12:28 PM (#6030432)
I guess "Whatever you do...don't even think about trying to dump Hosmer on us" counts as discussion.
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 26, 2021 at 12:56 PM (#6030442)
Thank god Nick Pratto has broken out this year, otherwise I can totally see the Dayton Moore giving up real players to get Hosmer back.
   3. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: July 26, 2021 at 01:03 PM (#6030447)
The money is problematic but Hosmer the player would be a good fit for the Red Sox. He's Jimmie Foxx compared to Bobby Dalbec. But I can't see a way to make a deal that is worth it to both teams. The Sox aren't going to want to absorb much if any of that contract and even if/when they bail on Dalbec they should be optimistic about Casas.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 26, 2021 at 01:19 PM (#6030453)
Any "trade" would be attach a good prospect to him and eat $50M of $70M left, and get nothing.
   5. Rally Posted: July 26, 2021 at 01:19 PM (#6030454)
Once upon a time the Red Sox made that trade. In 1984, they traded for Bill Buckner. Probably less of a contract albertross. Certainly in nominal terms. Even inflation adjusted, I’m sure Buckner’s 747k in 1985 was less bothersome than Hosmer’s 21 million. Hosmer is 31, has 1578 hits and a 108 career ops+. Through age 31, Buckner had 1588 hits and a 103.

As far as contracts go, Hosmer’s isn’t that extravagant. 21 million next year but then 13 million per year for 2023-25. So 60 million over 4 years. Less than half what the top paid players are making per season. The contract doesn’t hurt, being stuck with a 1B who hits like Hosmer is what hurts.

   6. Nasty Nate Posted: July 26, 2021 at 01:37 PM (#6030459)
No one is stuck with him.
   7. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: July 26, 2021 at 02:04 PM (#6030462)
Counting the last 35% of this season, Hosmer is (as #5 notes) 4/$60m after this year, plus about $8m left in 2021.

To Jose's point in #3, the Red Sox need an average player there through 2022, and then (probably?) can plan on Casas getting a shot at being the everyday 1B starting in 2023.

Hosmer's problem, of course, is the same one most of us have in life: time and money. His contract is too long, and it is too much money.

How much is San Diego willing to eat to get Hosmer out of there? Would they eat $40 million of it? And if so, would they do what the Yankees did when they traded Ottavino to Boston, and throw in a decent prospect, too?

It'd still be $28 million over 4+ years for Boston...still not good enough, probably.
   8. Darren Posted: July 26, 2021 at 04:41 PM (#6030518)
If Fangraphs values for prospects are to be believed, and the Padres are willing to include one of their top 4 prospects, this could be pretty attractive. The Red Sox, in particular, seem quite willing to spend to improve their farm system. Otherwise, it's really hard to see a fit.
   9. Hank Gillette Posted: July 26, 2021 at 06:32 PM (#6030568)
Hosmer and a boatload of money for a player to be named later.
   10. DL from MN Posted: July 26, 2021 at 06:35 PM (#6030569)
Detroit would probably trade Miguel Cabrera for Hosmer. I don't know why San Diego would be interested in that deal.
   11. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: July 26, 2021 at 07:02 PM (#6030574)
Hosmer has seemingly lost his Saberhagen-like ability to put up All Star seasons in odd-numbered years. Which is inconvenient for him and the Padres right now.
   12. DFA Posted: July 26, 2021 at 07:05 PM (#6030578)
Hosmer plus MacKenzie Gore and half of Hosmer's contract could net an interesting player IMO.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: July 26, 2021 at 07:09 PM (#6030579)
The best fits for the Red Sox are Rizzo or Gallo. And even if they would want to keep either player longer term, JDM's contract is up after next year so they can move them or the kid to DH. I don't know if they have the prospects for a Gallo trade (he's still under control in 2022) but 2 months of Rizzo probably won't cost very much. It's such an obvious trade I have trouble believing it hasn't happened yet. But if the Red Sox are desperate enough that Hosmer looks remotely attractive, they should call the A's about Moreland.

As to the Padres ... $2 M over the threshold is nothing. 4/$60 going forward is not a lot. Hosmer and everybody else who makes money except Machado are long gone before Tatis starts making real money. Giving playing time to Hosmer is the problem. (Note b-r projects some huge payrolls for the Padres in 2023-24 but that's because of the assumptions about young players and arb ... those numbers assume the Padres will have 26 arb-eligible players in 2023 and about 35 in 2024. I think we can safely say that's not gonna work out that way. The 2023 guaranteed payroll is listed as just $98 M.)

Still, if you can sell a prospect for the equivalent of $60 M, you probably should most of the time unless it's a top prospect. Just as an example, Hosmer was drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft. Out of that first round (46 picks) even, only 13 players have made it to 8 career WAR. The next 4 rounds add another 10 or so players to the list. International signings probably add another 10 or so (wild guess). Or if you prefer, Hosmer debuted in 2011 and 26 position players and 20 pitchers who debuted in 2011 have made it to 8 WAR. At any given point, $60 is probably a fair price for a team's #3-4 prospect. As long as you know what you're doing, you won't go too wrong selling prospects at $60 M ... and if you don't know what you're doing, you probably shouldn't be a MLB GM.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: July 26, 2021 at 07:19 PM (#6030583)
#10 hits on one way such a deal may go down -- flip Hosmer for somebody else's bad contract that happens to be structured more the way the Padres want with a bit of a prospect making up any difference. I don't think Cabrera's 2/$64 meets their criteria ... I'm not sure what would. Heyward's 2/$44 might work but the Cubs have no use for Hosmer -- even if they trade Rizzo I'd expect them to make him an offer this offseason but maybe it could be worked out.
   15. DL from MN Posted: July 26, 2021 at 10:15 PM (#6030623)
if the Red Sox are desperate enough that Hosmer looks remotely attractive, they should call the A's

Pretty sure they could get Sano from the Twins
   16. Howie Menckel Posted: July 26, 2021 at 10:27 PM (#6030626)
another weird part about the Hosmer signing is that at the time the Padres had a blue-chip 1B prospect in Josh Naylor.

at age 22 in 2019, they had Naylor pretend to be a corner OF - and he posted a 91 OPS+ in 279 PA.

then they shipped him to Cleveland in a 9-player trade last summer that did net the Padres Mike Clevinger, who of course has not pitched this year.

Naylor hasn't really panned out for the Indians, but he's still only 24, a plausible and controllable young talent struck me as more appealing than overpaying a meh vet like Hosmer - which MLB figured out a year or two later, to the Padres' chagrin.
   17. DL from MN Posted: July 27, 2021 at 10:49 AM (#6030692)
flip Hosmer for somebody else's bad contract that happens to be structured more the way the Padres want

Hosmer for Trevor Bauer?
   18. DL from MN Posted: July 27, 2021 at 02:54 PM (#6030738)
Heyward's 2/$44 might work but the Cubs have no use for Hosmer -- even if they trade Rizzo I'd expect them to make him an offer this offseason but maybe it could be worked out.

The Cubs are one of the few clubs that have the payroll room to eat the Hosmer contract. Heyward plus Kimbrel for Hosmer is almost even money. Wil Myers moves back to 1B.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: July 27, 2021 at 06:07 PM (#6030777)
#16 (and #18): Even better, they already had Wil Myers (the RHB Hosmer) signed long term. Signing Hosmer was one thing; signing him for $18 AAV or even a bit higher was kinda OK; signging him for more then 3-4 years was a bizarre idea; signing him for 8 years when you still had 5 years left on Myers' contract was a really, really bad idea. I'm still not convinced Preller knows what he's doing.
   20. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 27, 2021 at 06:40 PM (#6030781)
I feel like they had money burning a hole in their pocket and they wanted to make a big splash somehow.
   21. Zach Posted: July 27, 2021 at 08:02 PM (#6030798)
Thank god Nick Pratto has broken out this year, otherwise I can totally see the Dayton Moore giving up real players to get Hosmer back.

Hoz really saved Moore from himself on that deal. Months went by with the Royals as the only bidder and no interest from Hosmer's end.

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