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Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Padres To Sign Drew Pomeranz

A story in updates:

4:02pm: Pomeranz received an $8MM signing bonus and will be paid annual salaries of $4MM in 2020, $6MM in 2021 and $8MM in 2022-23, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (on Twitter).

1:54pm: Pomeranz will be guaranteed $34MM over a four-year term, pending a physical, Murray tweets.

1:20pm: Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that Pomeranz has been promised a rather stunning four-year guarantee (Twitter link). Robert Murray adds that it’ll pay him $8-9MM annually.

10:20am: The Padres have struck a deal with free agent lefty Drew Pomeranz, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The signing of the CAA client adds to what is quickly becoming a barn-burner of a day for the Friars, who have already struck a four-player swap with the Brewers.

 

QLE Posted: November 27, 2019 at 09:51 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: drew pomeranz, padres

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   1. Nasty Nate Posted: December 02, 2019 at 10:26 AM (#5904797)
So last year he was a SP who was available for basically free, and then after switching to the bullpen he dominated in 25 innings.

A good organization would take the lesson from this situation as "we should try to get the next basically-free former SP who could succeed as a setup man." A bad organization takes the lesson from this situation as "we must get Drew Pomeranz!"
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 02, 2019 at 12:09 PM (#5904827)

A good organization would take the lesson from this situation as "we should try to get the next basically-free former SP who could succeed as a setup man." A bad organization takes the lesson from this situation as "we must get Drew Pomeranz!"


Uh yup. Horrible signing.
   3. PreservedFish Posted: December 02, 2019 at 12:22 PM (#5904833)
I asked this question in another thread: with the rise of cynical/rigorously logical stathead front offices, FA salaries are dropping and general interest in FAs so tepid that there are open accusations of collusion. And yet ... relievers are still getting paid like crazy. Why? I feel like I understand everything that these statdork GMs are up to, except for this.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 02, 2019 at 12:25 PM (#5904834)
Why? I feel like I understand everything that these statdork GMs are up to, except for this.

Perhaps because you're rational, and this behavior is irrational?
   5. PreservedFish Posted: December 02, 2019 at 12:29 PM (#5904838)
Sure, but it seems like the clubs have become generally more rational, not less. This is an apparent exception.
   6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 02, 2019 at 04:46 PM (#5904987)
Sure, but it seems like the clubs have become generally more rational, not less. This is an apparent exception.


I think that making bullpen signings is, to a certain extent, insurance for the GM against getting fired over catching a bad beat in a playoff game. If he spent some money on the bullpen, he can point to that and say, well, who could have known that Castro would give up those runs? Whereas if he's got a bullpen that was cobbled together from scraps and chicken wire, not signing an expensive reliever or two kind of looks from the owner's chair like he didn't do his due diligence.

It's still a rational strategy, just not one that happens to be aligned with the goal of improving outcomes for the team as a whole.
   7. DCA Posted: December 02, 2019 at 04:58 PM (#5904995)
A good organization would take the lesson from this situation as "we should try to get the next basically-free former SP who could succeed as a setup man." A bad organization takes the lesson from this situation as "we must get Drew Pomeranz!"

Disagree. In order to find the basically-free former SP who succeeds as a good setup man, you may have to churn through several who do not. And that's going to be the case if you try again next year. Drew Pomeranz v2019 just showed that he's a better bet than Drew Pomeranz v2018, so he can - and should - be paid more.

And Pomeranz hardly showed up from nowhere. Yes, he was terrible in 2018, but from from 2014-2017 he put up 5 WAA / 9.4 WAR as a starter/swingman. He just needed to show he was back, not that he had arrived. Werd Bizzaroanz who had his first good 25 innings in the second half of 2019 doesn't get paid.
   8. PreservedFish Posted: December 02, 2019 at 05:13 PM (#5905005)
#6 - Yes. That may certainly be part of it.
   9. Nasty Nate Posted: December 02, 2019 at 05:22 PM (#5905010)
Disagree. In order to find the basically-free former SP who succeeds as a good setup man, you may have to churn through several who do not. And that's going to be the case if you try again next year. Drew Pomeranz v2019 just showed that he's a better bet than Drew Pomeranz v2018, so he can - and should - be paid more.

And Pomeranz hardly showed up from nowhere. Yes, he was terrible in 2018, but from from 2014-2017 he put up 5 WAA / 9.4 WAR as a starter/swingman. He just needed to show he was back, not that he had arrived. Werd Bizzaroanz who had his first good 25 innings in the second half of 2019 doesn't get paid.
Teams often have to churn through guys of Pomeranz' current status to find guys who succeed as a good setup man. Slapping a guaranteed deal on him doesn't make him a proven commodity in the bullpen.

But, yes, it makes sense that he can command a better contract now than a year ago.
   10. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 02, 2019 at 05:32 PM (#5905015)
Teams often have to churn through guys of Pomeranz' current status to find guys who succeed as a good setup man. Slapping a guaranteed deal on him doesn't make him a proven commodity in the bullpen.

They'll be massively fortunate to get 4 WAR out of this deal. That would require Pomeranz being a top-flight set up man each of the four years. Given what we know about relievers, how likely is that? More likely, they're paying $34M for 2 wins.
   11. Dock Ellis Posted: December 02, 2019 at 05:46 PM (#5905018)
I think it also takes some buying-in on the pitcher's part to accept a transition to RP and for Pomeranz, that wasn't a straight-forward path. He had to stink up the joint as a starter in Boston and SF before being traded to MIL and fully embracing his new role and changing his approach. I think there are guys that have to fail in their current role more than once before they just up and accept a new one. Sure, the Red Sox or the Giants could've put him in the bullpen but it doesn't necessarily follow that he would've been as lights-out as he was with the Brewers. Maybe Pomeranz had to go through get traded twice before he realized/accepted his fate.
   12. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 11:12 AM (#5905181)
I think it also takes some buying-in on the pitcher's part to accept a transition to RP and for Pomeranz, that wasn't a straight-forward path.


That's exactly what a few of the guys on MLB radio said - SD *had* to overpay to convince Pomeranz to go to the pen. He's getting cheap starter money, but agrees to be a reliever.
   13. Nasty Nate Posted: December 03, 2019 at 11:23 AM (#5905191)
Good point that it sometimes takes buy-in to move starters to relievers.

That's exactly what a few of the guys on MLB radio said - SD *had* to overpay to convince Pomeranz to go to the pen. He's getting cheap starter money, but agrees to be a reliever.
I have to be dubious about this statement from those guys. He had a 5.97 ERA as a starter last year, and further and further away from his success in that role. His cheap starter money after last off-season was $1.5m.
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 11:42 AM (#5905193)
I have to be dubious about this statement from those guys. He had a 5.97 ERA as a starter last year, and further and further away from his success in that role. His cheap starter money after last off-season was $1.5m.

Agreed. He is being paid like an already-established elite set-up man. Maybe you needed 2/16 to get him to the pen, bu 4/34 just seems like they were bidding against themselves.
   15. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: December 03, 2019 at 11:48 AM (#5905194)
How does it require "buy-in"? The manager tells him that he's a relief pitcher. What's he going to do - pitch poorly in the hopes that his poor performance will get him back into the rotation?

The most likely explanation of why he pitched so well for the Brewers is that it was only 26 innings, and pretty much anything can happen in 26 innings. (Call it the pitching corollary of Voros' Law.)
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 12:19 PM (#5905203)

The most likely explanation of why he pitched so well for the Brewers is that it was only 26 innings, and pretty much anything can happen in 26 innings. (Call it the pitching corollary of Voros' Law.)


Yup. Just picked a random OK relief pitcher (Luis Cessa of the Yankees).

From June 19 to August 12 he threw 27.2 IP with a 1.95 ERA, 29 K, 9 BB. Probably every mediocre reliever has a similar stretch.
   17. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 12:54 PM (#5905234)
How does it require "buy-in"? The manager tells him that he's a relief pitcher. What's he going to do - pitch poorly in the hopes that his poor performance will get him back into the rotation?


He may not pitch poorly on purpose, but I bet a guy who doesn't think of himself as a reliever is not going to pitch as well when he is forced into that role. Some players don't want to DH, some don't want to bat lead off, or 4th. Doesn't seem crazy to me that a team would want a player to feel comfortable in the role they are assigned.

I am also assuming Pomeranz has a much higher opinion of himself than you all here. He may only have warranted a $1.5m contract offer, but he certainly wasn't thinking that. You can say the Padres only needed to offer 2/16 to get him in the pen, but clearly either Pomeranz's agent is fantastic, or Drew was not going to accept *only* 2/16.
   18. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 12:58 PM (#5905237)
The most likely explanation of why he pitched so well for the Brewers is that it was only 26 innings, and pretty much anything can happen in 26 innings. (Call it the pitching corollary of Voros' Law.)


This is probably the explanation, but keep in mind there is an established "starter to the pen for rehab, or to close out a postseason run" mindset that implies the pitcher is still a starter, not a reliever.
   19. PreservedFish Posted: December 03, 2019 at 01:02 PM (#5905241)
That's exactly what a few of the guys on MLB radio said - SD *had* to overpay to convince Pomeranz to go to the pen.


That's a heckuva negotiating tactic.

"We'll pay you your market rate."
"Naaahhh ... I'm just not really into it."
"OK, would extra money help?"
"I mean, I guess so."
   20. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 03, 2019 at 01:34 PM (#5905265)
That's a heckuva negotiating tactic.

"We'll pay you your market rate."
"Naaahhh ... I'm just not really into it."
"OK, would extra money help?"
"I mean, I guess so."


How about:

We'd like you to take a lesser role.
Eh, thanks for now, I'd like to check out other options.
OK, what if we offered you more money?
Deal.
   21. PreservedFish Posted: December 03, 2019 at 01:41 PM (#5905271)
Mine's funnier though.

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