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Tuesday, January 26, 2021

Philadelphia Phillies keep J.T. Realmuto with 5-year, $115 million deal, sources say

Catcher J.T. Realmuto and the Philadelphia Phillies are in agreement on a five-year, $115.5 million contract, sources confirmed to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The 29-year-old Realmuto continues to be one of the best all-around catchers in the majors, hitting .266 with 11 homers and 32 RBIs with the Philadelphia Phillies during the pandemic-shortened season. He did not accept an $18.9 million, one-year qualifying offer in favor of searching for a longer-term deal on the free-agent market.

Since 2018, Realmuto leads all MLB catchers in WAR (10.1), RBI (189), stolen bases (16) and is second in slugging percentage (.489) and OPS (.825). His 57 home runs during that span ranks third among MLB catchers.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 26, 2021 at 03:17 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: j.t. realmuto, phillies

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   1. asinwreck Posted: January 26, 2021 at 03:25 PM (#6001871)
A wild ride to get where everyone thought he'd be 12 months ago.
   2. Jack Sommers Posted: January 26, 2021 at 03:55 PM (#6001880)
He's a terrific player, but I'm skeptical this works out well for them. Catcher decline and all.

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1961 to 2020,
Younger than 30, Played at C, (70 %)
OPS+>=102, OPS+<=122,
PA<=4000, PA>=2000
oWAR>=0, dWAR>=0
WAR/pos>=14, WAR/pos<=24),
sorted by greatest WAR Position Players

                                                                                                                                                                       
Rk             Player WAR/posV OPS+   PA oWAR dWAR From   To   Age   G   AB   R   H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS      Pos      Tm
1           Tony Pena     22.4  104 3091 16.9 10.6 1980 1986 23-29 801 2872 307 821 140 15  63 340 174  28 372  10 22 13  89 42 41 .286 .327 .411 .738    *2/H3     PIT
2       J.T. Realmuto     19.8  111 2940 18.9  5.1 2014 2020 23-29 732 2699 380 749 156 19  95 358 179   9 559  36  1 22  62 44 14 .278 .328 .455 .783   *2/H3D MIA-PHI
3    Manny Sanguillen     19.0  107 2819 14.2  8.5 1967 1973 23-29 710 2683 310 814 114 35  38 343  90  48 204   9 11 23  78 19 19 .303 .325 .414 .740   *2/9H7     PIT
4     Victor Martinez     17.0  120 3014 20.0  1.0 2002 2008 23-29 722 2658 357 793 170  1  88 451 296  44 356  25  0 35  99  1  3 .298 .370 .462 .832   *2/3HD     CLE
5       Brian Downing     16.8  109 2710 17.3  3.6 1973 1980 22-29 764 2286 304 607  91  7  47 285 352  16 356  19 34 19  67 27 17 .266 .365 .373 .739 *2/DH975 CHW-CAL
6          Tom Haller     15.2  113 2216 14.7  3.9 1961 1966 24-29 620 1913 247 473  59 10  93 271 249  42 319  23 15 15  38 10 16 .247 .339 .434 .773  *2/H937     SFG
7     Jonathan Lucroy     15.1  109 2761 14.9  4.3 2010 2015 24-29 710 2500 298 705 140 16  66 337 217   7 391  15  6 23  75 24  9 .282 .340 .430 .770   *2/H3D     MIL
8          Javy Lopez     14.9  113 3006 16.7  2.5 1992 2000 21-29 790 2761 343 800 130 10 143 467 184  21 493  29  5 27  99  7 16 .290 .338 .499 .837    *2/HD     ATL
9     Yasmani Grandal     14.8  115 2660 14.7  3.8 2012 2018 23-29 726 2280 295 547 110  5 113 339 348   7 634  11  2 19  65  6  6 .240 .341 .441 .782   *2/H3D SDP-LAD
10      Terry Kennedy     14.6  103 3193 14.0  5.1 1978 1985 22-29 821 2941 301 802 155  9  70 420 201  55 491  11  9 31  72  3  7 .273 .318 .403 .721   *2/H73 STL-SDP


Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool Used
Generated 1/26/2021.
   3. Ron J Posted: January 26, 2021 at 04:39 PM (#6001886)
#2 Yeah that was probably the clearest finding on James' two studies on aging. Catchers age badly. (Not of course that all catchers do. They just fairly clearly age less well than other positions)

Sometimes the bat's enough to allow them to move. VMart and Downing for instance.
   4. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:11 PM (#6001902)
Looks like the entire Division is making an effort to win this year. Rare for 2021.
   5. The Duke Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:29 PM (#6001908)
That’s a lot of good teams in the East beating the snot out of one another. If the MLB goes back to just playing your regional teams, it will be brutal.
   6. cardsfanboy Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:30 PM (#6001909)
I'm fairly certain that it will look like a bad deal in years 4 and 5, but I don't think that matters to the Phillies. As of right now, you have the Mets, Braves, Phillies, Dodgers and Padres pretty clearly ahead of everyone in the National League, the only reason that the Central will have a team in the playoffs is because they have to. ... which is a bit weird compared to a year ago even.
   7. Tin Angel Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:36 PM (#6001912)
More like J.T. Realdinero, am I right?
   8. Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus Posted: January 26, 2021 at 06:57 PM (#6001923)
As of right now, you have the Mets, Braves, Phillies, Dodgers and Padres pretty clearly ahead of everyone in the National League,

I think the Padres and Dodgers are pretty clearly ahead of everyone, then there's the Mets, then another level down with team like the Braves and Phillies (though I don't think the Phillies have really closed the gap on the Braves quite yet). Phillies might actually be about equal to the least bad NL central team.
   9. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 26, 2021 at 10:06 PM (#6002007)
The Mets finished the equivalent of 24 games, if you extrapolated the results, behind the Braves last season. Maybe if the Mets sign Bauer and/or Bradley, they might be on the Braves level. Certainly, as constructed the Mets are not another level above the Braves.
   10. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: January 26, 2021 at 10:24 PM (#6002019)
Great news! Great relief.

But the Phillies didn't even make the 8-team NL playoffs last year with Realmuto. I don't see how they end up in the "pretty clearly ahead" tier having the same team as last year (minus Didi Gregorius and plus Archie Bradley), even accounting for the bullpen likely reverting from "worst in several generations" to average. If Realmuto didn't come back I think they'd be the pick for last in the division.
   11. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: January 26, 2021 at 10:24 PM (#6002020)
FWIW, Fangraphs is on board with Moses' take on the NL. Dodgers and Padres clearly on top, with the Mets next, projected to 5+ more wins than the Braves over a full season. The Nats are the only other team projected over .500 in the NL. The Central is the NFC East of MLB.
   12. SoSH U at work Posted: January 27, 2021 at 01:40 AM (#6002077)
I'm with Russlan.
   13. Rally Posted: January 27, 2021 at 09:27 AM (#6002112)
Jack,

What would be interesting to see from that list is how much value those players had from ages 30-34. Grandal is mostly useless for a comp, but the others have made it through those ages.

Pena 4.2
Manny S 9.3
VMart 11.5 (2 years C, 2 DH, 1 injured)
Brian 13.8 (all as LF)
Haller 13.9
Lucroy 2.7
Javy 15.3
Kennedy 7.0

Average 9.7
   14. Rally Posted: January 27, 2021 at 09:35 AM (#6002115)
The Mets finished the equivalent of 24 games, if you extrapolated the results, behind the Braves last season. Maybe if the Mets sign Bauer and/or Bradley, they might be on the Braves level. Certainly, as constructed the Mets are not another level above the Braves.


The Mets don't need Bauer to be good. They just need to replace the absolute dreck from the bottom of their rotation. Last year deGrom was great, and Peterson solid. The other 4 starters combined to give them 137 innings of a 7.19 ERA, winning 2 games and losing 16. A full season of Stroman and eventual return of Thor will go a long way towards fixing that.
   15. SoSH U at work Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:08 AM (#6002122)

The Mets don't need Bauer to be good. They just need to replace the absolute dreck from the bottom of their rotation.


So, like the Braves.
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:16 AM (#6002123)
The Mets finished the equivalent of 24 games, if you extrapolated the results, behind the Braves last season. Maybe if the Mets sign Bauer and/or Bradley, they might be on the Braves level. Certainly, as constructed the Mets are not another level above the Braves.

You can't pro-rate last year and reach any meaningful conclusions; it was too weird. If you look at the actual roster analysis, the Mets look better than the Braces.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts
   17. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:26 AM (#6002129)
What would be interesting to see from that list is how much value those players had from ages 30-34.
Average 9.7
Yikes.
   18. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:39 AM (#6002133)
So, like the Braves.

Or like almost any team in the league.
   19. The Honorable Ardo Posted: January 27, 2021 at 06:49 PM (#6002302)
Tom Haller played for the 1971 Dodgers, who had 48-year-old Hoyt Wilhelm and 24-year-old Charlie Hough.

Hough pitched for the 1993/1994 Florida Marlins with Dave Weathers.

Weathers pitched for the 2008/2009 Cincinnati Reds with Johnny Cueto.

Only two degrees of separation between a very much active starting pitcher and a man who fought in the Battle of the Bulge. Wow.
   20. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 27, 2021 at 10:13 PM (#6002330)
By the time Weathers joined the Reds, he had already lost that battle.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: February 02, 2021 at 04:33 PM (#6003371)
Back in the dark ages, when the A's traded for Kendall, I did some comp magic on this type of C. I think I dove reasonably deep with big, medium, small sets of comps increasinbly similar to Kendall. Kendall at his best was probably better than Realmuto, "played hurt" a couple of years, bounced back to some place probably not quite as good as Realmuto then went to the A's at 31.

Anyway, long way around to the basic conclusion, kinda regardless of which list I looked at, that the outcomes for your durable, good-hitting Cs entering their early 30s:

25%: Both the bat and the durability remained. By the bat "remaining" I mean they suffered what seemed reasonably standard age-based decline but remained a good hitter for a C. In WAR terms, probably somewhere around 3 average.

25%: The bat remained but the durability collapsed -- maybe due to injury. Usually either a couple of good seasons then broken or 5 solif half-time seasons -- so a 3 WAR player but in only about 3 years playing time 30-34 (or whatever).

25%: The durability remained but the bat collapsed to average for a C or a bit worse. This is where Kendall ended up although you can't expect that insane level of durability (417 starts over 3 years left on the contract). Again somewhere around average (or better for Kendall per bWAR).

25%: Both collapse.

If anything, the short list in #2 looks a bit promising but then I would have been looking ages 31-33 not 30-34 so that might do it (i.e. Kendall had 4 WAR under his belt for age 30 already, would have been true for many of the guys I comped him to).

By the way, McCann's another recent comp (I think he overqualifies on PA) and he's not very promising with 7 WAR over 30-34. Yadi though comes in at 16 WAR (nearly 4 on Rfield).

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