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Monday, October 10, 2022
Postseason OMNICHATTER for the 2022 League Division & Championship Series
NL Match-ups:
Philadelphia vs Atlanta
San Diego vs Los Angeles
AL Match-ups:
Cleveland vs New York
Seattle vs Houston
Scoreboards for the Major Leagues and all minor leagues,
courtesy of Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee).
Hombre Brotani
Posted: October 10, 2022 at 04:16 PM | 511 comment(s)
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I suspect the Braves will win in 5 though from the start.
Cole, Cortes & Severino starting for the Yankees; Quantrill, Bieber & McKenzie for Cleveland. Officially TBD beyond that.
Looking at Sportsbook betting odds, I don't believe the favorites should be favored as heavily as they are, in all 4 cases.
@JesseRogersESPN
Per Rob Thomson: Phillies reliever David Robertson strained his right calf jumping up in the air when Bryce Harper homered against the Cards last round. He’s out for the division series.
10:35 AM · Oct 11, 2022
and I can only imagine a geek's results for the "run differential" on the worst call I've seen all year - bags loaded with Braves, 1 out, 2-1 count, and a pitch is way inside but called strike 2. then 3-2, then a 6-3 DP.
what's even worse (maybe) is that the previous pitch - a better one - also was inside and correctly was called a ball.
Still better than the Brady roughing the passer call, though.
May not matter, Fried doesn't seem to have it today. It's always frustrating when your top pitcher has an off day in a short series.
Nooooooo ooooo aaaa oooooo! Nooooo ooooo oooooo!
I don't really care for the Mariners, but they're definitely the far lesser of two evils against the Astros.
The other two series feature matchups where I'm varying levels of ok with both teams. I guess I'm pulling for the Phillies and Padres, just because the Dodgers and Braves have both won recently.
Fangraphs: Dodgers a 54-46 favorite, Braves also a 54-46 favorite (not sure if accounting for Phillies game 1 lead), Astros a 58-42 favorite, Yankees a 60.5-39.5 favorite.
Imagine designing a projection system that says the Dodgers and Padres are basically equally good teams.
Fried was coming off the flu. Neither pitcher made it out of the 4th, so both teams are burning plenty of pitchers.
Apparently only two AL teams besides the Indians won as many as 70 games that year.
Their record against just four teams--O's, Red Sox, A's, and Senators---was a jaw-dropping 75-13 (.852).
Including the World Series, the 111-43 Indians' record against winning teams that year was 22-26
Apparently only two AL teams besides the Indians won as many as 70 games that year.
Their record against just four teams--O's, Red Sox, A's, and Senators---was a jaw-dropping 75-13 (.852).
That's not as bad as it seems. The only winning teams were the 103-51 Yankees, and the 94-60 ChiSox. There were no teams between 78 and 93 wins.
Also, that includes the World Series. They were 11-11 vs. both the Yanks and Sox.
Mariners put up another one.
It is worth pointing out here that the 69-85 Red Sox actually had a winning record in games not against Cleveland (67-65); Cleveland went 20-2 against them.
TUE - GAME 1 in NY
WED - no game
THU - GAME 2 in NY
FRI - no game
SAT - GAME 3 in CLE
SUN - GAME 4* in CLE
MON - GAME 5* in NY
one tiny problem in the NYY-CLE series is that while the weather is delightful in The Bronx for Game 1 tonight (65 degrees and clear at first pitch) as well as for the weird off-day on Wednesday (would be same scenario), Thursday could be a washout. chance of rain from about 4 pm to midnight over 75 percent.
that would mean Game 2 on Friday after two off-days, then possibly 4 games in 4 days with no travel day to or from Cleveland.
the alternative is to play in the slop on Thursday night, which I guess they'll do (temps in the low 60s til late, so wet but not raw). but if the game has stops and starts, that could wreak havoc on both pitching staffs.
just noticed that rain gear might also be in order Sat night in Cleveland and Monday night in NYC.
13 man pitching staffs can handle a lot of havoc.
how about 12 man pitching staffs? because that's how many the Yankees and IndiGuardians each have for this series.
He's signed through some far-off year (2028).
It was a great game.
I'm interested as to why you go NY over the Guardians as other then Yankee fans I can't see any sane baseball fan supporting NY in this match up.
this hallowed record will last - well, just over 24 hours, until Kershaw claims it back in his Game 2 start.
............
meanwhile, this is a stellar "GET OFF MY LAWN!" effort by a grizzled scribe:
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
The Yankees have gone full minor leagues -- Lights out with Nick Swisher waving an interlocking NY banner in a No. 99 jersey. I mean Yankee legend Nick Swisher. I remember when this used to be Yankee Stadium. #TheGoodOldDays
7:35 PM · Oct 11, 2022
Generally in the playoffs I support my team (obviously) I support the team that beat my team, and just other teams that I don't dislike. I have no real rooting interest for any team in the AL, so it's what it is. I have an active dislike of the Astros, as pretty much every fan of baseball does. The Bagwell/Biggio Astros were great, but the current iteration is not worthy of anyone liking them, even if you love someone like Verlander or Alvarez.
Gee, only 12 pitchers, with three days off, what ever will they do!
goes into a HR trot with his Little League clout to RF, slaps hands with the first base coach, goes into a narcissistic stroll - then gets caught out easily in an attempt to get back to first base when he finds out it wasn't a HR after all, but off the wall.
he should be benched, but he won't be.
Totally threw me
So are the Dodgers really a 630 team vs the Padres? That seems a bit high but they did go 14-5 in the regular season which is well above that. But they were just 14-12 against the other NL playoff teams ... but put those together for 28-17 which is 62%. That does all fall apart for the Braves who were just 11-8 vs the Phils and 30-28 vs NL playoff teams overall, hard to see how to get them close to a 58% probability. But arguably even harder for fg to get the Dodgers down to just 54/46 which would put the Dodgers about just a 52-48 favorite in each game.
The binomial assumptions -- the p in each game the same, each game independent of the rest -- probably aren't satisfied but as long as independence approximately holds, it doesn't matter a whole lot whether the p changes some from game to game as long as the mean is about right.
And of course it's right here that I remember these are 3 of 5, not 4 of 7 ... doesn't make a huge difference but the Dodgers would have to be 65-66% favorites in each game.
What does that little rant even mean? What's he complaining about?
In which direction? He's been at this a long while and has been pretty durable. I suppose I don't identify Freeman as one of those guys who debuted "really young" but he had a cup of coffee at 20 and was full-time at 21. He just finished his 12th full season.
He doesn't think Swisher is a True Yankee ... but obviously he's forgotten about this! . The Yanks go for the title this weekend!!
Another Selig-Manfred difference: Selig never would have let the epic HRDX take attention away from the playoffs.
Re: the Astros game, I endorse the thought process - better Ray than Sewald, and no use loading the bases for Bregman - but, man, did it ever blow up.
Jolly Old St. Nick seconds that emotion. Swisher was a True Yankee from the day he donned the pinstriped laundry.
Of course now that LA is up 1-0, sure, Id give it 77% :)
Atlanta needs a win today. Strider is on the NLDS roster, but not sure if he'll be durable and effective, and their other options are shaky.
"This wasn’t the first time Donaldson has been thrown out on the base paths this season after pimping a ball that ended up not clearing the fences. He has given up an out several times this season because of his poor decision-making."
[Boone not surprisingly was mealy-mouthed after the game. zero reason for Donaldson not to keep hot-dogging it - zero consequences no matter how many times he does it.]
teams now spend millions on minutiae designed to give them possibly a tiny edge in winning, yet a player loafing in a postseason close game is not something where any effort appears to be made toward preventing a repeat performance. it's absurd. and Donaldson isn't good enough to make for a complicated calculus here, either.
I am really, really, really loath to defend Donaldson, but, I mean, he put up 2.4 WAR this year. No, it's not anything extraordinary, but that's above average, and its not like there are guys on the street who can simply hustle their way to that kind of production. With LeMahieu out, the only alternative is Marwin Gonzalez and his 64 OPS+. You're damn right there isn't a complicated calculus here, its clear they need to keep playing the guy.
Francona had a complete boner of a game last night, leaving his average-ish starter in for a third time through the lineup despite having an elite bullpen that was completely rested, leaving his .512 OPS vs LHP 1B in against a LH reliever, putting the lesser fielder in RF and the better fielder at DH only for a key misplay to affect the game, not PH-ing for his catcher in the 7th despite carrying 3 catchers on the DS roster specifically for that purpose, and there has been zero public criticism of him. It's even more absurd.
This is just obviously false.
Everyone loves Yordan, Verlander, and Dusty.
um, Oswaldo Cabrera has started 133 games at 3B in the minors. he batted 5th last night in LF, where he has started 9 games (1 minors, 8 majors).
Aaron Hicks had 1.8 WAR in 2022. Matt Carpenter, who is active and started 2 G at 3B for the Yankees this year, has the magical 2.4 WAR figure you seem to so admire.
if you want to make a point and incentivize players to stop loafing, you can - and they won't. so be it. with any luck, it will happen again and this time cost the Yankees a game.
? Aaron Hicks is an outfielder ?
Me neither. Every team bends the rules. The Cardinals got stung for stealing info from these very same Astros and everyone hand waves it away. Both the Red Sox and Yankees were accused of electronic assisted sign stealing, etc.
Didn't the Braves get fined for shenanigans with the international draft or something?
I'm not saying it's right, just that I'm not one to single out one team for bending the rules. If someone else wants to take that high and mighty stand, well then the soapbox is all yours.
We've all been treated recently to a barrage of articles, statements, memes questioning the legitimacy of the numbers 73, 70, 66. Sure, these are individual numbers but they did have an impact on team records & accomplishments. If Bonds' achievements are discounted, should Baker's be as well?
This is not my position. There are many many reasons why a particular baseball game is won or lost (leaving aside games featuring a transcendant Yordan Alvarez). I haven't gone back to review the record, but as a fan I thought Baker made some big mistakes during the 2002 World Series & I wish Bonds had a ring.
We seem to give managers a lot of leniency anyway; otherwise who could possible root for the team managed by Aaron Effing Boone?
A big difference is that the Cardinals' scandal had little to do with anything that affected the game on the field. This was one overly zealous analytics guy who had the keys to the system and guessed correctly that the ex-Cardinal (Luhnow) had kept his same password in Houston, and was convinced that Luhnow had appropriated proprietary intellectual property, and in his twisted brain decided to hack into their system and expose him. That's very different from the players on the field that everyone recognizes, along with coaches and staff, implementing a plan to cheat during games.
BTW, the average fan may have yawned---and I wouldn't blame him/her--but the Cardinal guy lost his job, was arrested, went to prison, and is banned from working in MLB ever again.
And the Cardinals had to give up their first two draft picks from the next year, both of which went to Houston as compensation.
Cardinals/Dodgers/Yankees and maybe the Red Sox are somewhat immune from having their reputations tarnished, because they aren't generally liked outside of their own fanbases. So if they do something, it's just another reason for people who don't like them, to continue not liking them. (among the lesser ( :) )teams I might put the Marlins in the same category)
You're speculating that others did not know about this. I'm inclined to disagree.
This I 100% agree with.
I suppose in my humble opinion I don't get the out and out vitriol that seems to be the level of hatred people usually reserve for Putin, Idi Amin or paedophiles. It's a game. Teams bend the rules all the time in search of an edge whether it's directly on the field or in the back of stat rooms; it's still cheating.
I supposes I'm speculating, but that's based on the opinion reached in the MLB investigation.
That's fair enough.
It's a temporary vitriol. It will subside in time, but it's going to be there for a few years. Nobody hates the White Sox anymore.(at least not for the Black Sox scandal)
Basically it will die down eventually but more than likely the Astros will need a couple of losing seasons in that time frame for people to forget. If they keep winning, people will dislike them.
I get free subscriptions to MLB.tv because of the annual T-Mobile giveaway. That includes the home and away radio broadcasts. Don't you at least still get those or international radio feeds?
The guy who programs music for Fox is a Deadhead.
They've been playing Dead stuff as intros and outros for a few years already.
And didn't Jerry sing the National Anthem at a Giants game with Weir and Welnick once?
PS...which shows u going to?
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