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Friday, November 04, 2022

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.


Chris Bassitt (Mets)
Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox)
Willson Contreras (Cubs)
Jacob deGrom (Mets)
Edwin Díaz (Mets)
Aaron Judge (Yankees)
Brandon Nimmo (Mets)
Carlos Rodón (Giants)
Dansby Swanson (Braves)
Trea Turner (Dodgers)
There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 04, 2022 at 05:20 PM | 1 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: qualifying offers

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   1. John Northey Posted: November 06, 2022 at 09:47 PM (#6104587)
I think we'll see a few surprising guys get QO's this year as it looks like the market is going to go bonkers. $20 mil will be the new mid-range price (solid regular, might make an AS team or two, but not a HOF type guy) if it isn't already. The QO is $19.65 mil for one year. The old saying that there is no such thing as a bad 1 year deal could cause teams to get silly this year with it. This feels a lot like the late 80's early90's when prices skyrocketed after collusion - highest ever was $2.6 mil in the 1989 season, then new records set 6 times in the offseason, broke again in April, then in June Canseco signed for $4.7 mil a year - an 81% increase from the all-time record from less than a year earlier. In the 91/92 offseason $5 mil was broke by Clemens, $7 mil hit by Sandberg in March 92 before things stabalized until after the strike. Then Albert Belle cracked $11 million in early 96, peaking at $17 mil in late 2000 before A-Rod shattered things with his $25 per deal, which he later broke with $27 per in 2007, $30 mil finally set by Manny Machado in 2019, broke by Trout's $35 mil. Cole barely broke that with $36 mil then Scherzer got $43 per starting this past season. If Judge doesn't crack $50 mil per I'd be surprised (only way he doesn't if it is done for luxury tax reasons - spread out over 15 years or something when the team only expects 10 max then pays him to sit at home).

Smart teams will sign guys quickly this winter.

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