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Tuesday, October 12, 2021

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-12-2021

Alaska Daily Empire, October 12, 1921:

The Giants won a nerve wrecking pitcher’s battle from the Yankees this afternoon by a score of 2 to 1. The spitballer Douglas won the decision by a hair line over the underhand slinger Carl Mays.
...
The series now stands, Giants 4 and the Yankees 3. The series will continue until one team wins five games.

Before the game, John McGraw had speculated that Shufflin’ Phil Douglas might miss his start because of a severe cold, but obviously Douglas came through.

Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: October 12, 2021 at 08:19 AM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dugout, history, world series

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   1. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: October 12, 2021 at 08:21 AM (#6045742)
OCTOBER 12 HAS A PRETTY GOOD BIRTHDAY TEAM, MR. PRESIDENT.

C: Rick Ferrell (30.8 WAR)
1B: Phil Weintraub (9.0 WAR)
2B: Ketel Marte (18.0 WAR)
3B: Pop Smith (13.1 WAR)
SS/Manager: Joe Cronin (64.8 WAR)
LF: Jose Valentin (31.6 WAR)
CF: Tony Kubek (18.4 WAR)
RF: Pete Hill (4.2 WAR)

SP: Sid Fernandez (32.7 WAR)
SP: Dixie Davis (13.9 WAR)
SP: Al Smith (7.6 WAR)
SP: Erv Brame (5.5 WAR)
SP: Tanyon Sturtze (4.6 WAR)
RP: Tony Fiore (1.3 WAR)

Blogger: Murray Chass
Broadcaster: Dick Stockton
Fun names: Malachi Kittridge, Dutch Holland, Bub Kuhn, Chub Collins, Bobo Osborne
Not that one: John Kennedy
Neither of those ones: Al Unser
Spent a year playing for a team that didn't exist: Rupert Mills
   2. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: October 12, 2021 at 11:11 AM (#6045769)
SP: Sid Fernandez (32.7 WAR)

I am always surprised to see that he ranks 4th all time in fewest hits/9 with 6.85. The 3 guys above him are who you'd expect: Ryan, Koufax, Kershaw.
   3. The Honorable Ardo Posted: October 12, 2021 at 12:59 PM (#6045815)
Another "Not that one": Charlie Morton, who played from 1882 to 1885, batting .197/.240/.269.

Which still makes him the best-hitting Charlie Morton of all time, by a wide margin.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: October 12, 2021 at 05:33 PM (#6045869)
Tough positional decisions on today's team. Three very good defensive SS in Cronin, Valentin and Kubek with Kubek maybe the best of the three. All three have time at other positions, usually playing them well, especially Valentin at 2B. And Marte is rated as average at SS, very good at 2B and terrible in CF. Given Valentin has just 44 starts in the OF, Kubek 96 more in LF than elsewhere and Marte has 160 starts in CF, I think the "rules" of the birthday team should probably shift those positions around. In real life, I suspect it would be Marte in LF, Valentin at 2B and Kubek in CF. We could consider shifting Cronin too but he had even less time away from SS. Given there are two SS and a 4.2 WAR player in the OF, I assume the OF choices are slim and none today.

So really, it's like a 21st century team with all these versatile guys who can play IF and OF. And if ever there was a not-too-old-school SP designed for today's usage, it's Sid Fernandez. He only averaged a bit over 6 IP/start anyway. Tell Sid to put in max effort for as many innings as he could against today's hitters and I'm pretty sure he'd be K'ing at least 10 per 9 (which he was doing at the end anyway).

I am always surprised to see that he ranks 4th all time in fewest hits/9 with 6.85. The 3 guys above him are who you'd expect: Ryan, Koufax, Kershaw.

Which is the sort of pitcher he was. There may have never been a more flyball pitcher than Fernandez. We don't have G/F for his entire career but what we do have gives him a career G/F ratio of 0.37. We have GO/AO for the whole career and that's 0.43. MLB averages at the time were 0.81 and 1.07. For comparison, Joey Gallo is 0.44 and 0.64 (league averages haven't budged). Flyballs in play of course have a terrible BA and his HR/FB and HR/PA were only a bit worse than league average so, along with the high K-rate, that leads to low BA (209 career BAA).

You'd think that would be a guy whose ERA was a lot lower than his FIP given FIP plugs in a league-average BABIP. His ERA is better but not by a huge amount, just 0.16/9. He comes out much better in WAR though because a K and FB pitcher will also generally give up very few unearned runs (just 53 for his career)** -- his RA9 is barely higher than his FIP. His ERA was about 0.37 better than average; his RA9 was about 0.6 better. So his FIP+ looks to be just 106, his ERA+ 111 and his RA9+ about 117. bWAR says his defenses were average so I think all of those differences are "real" and due to all those flyballs.

** Greg Maddux had a single season where he was charged with 25 unearned runs, gave up 225 for his career (obviously much longer than Sid's) and his RA9 was 0.40 higher than his ERA (Sid 0.25).
   5. AndrewJ Posted: October 12, 2021 at 07:53 PM (#6045910)
No pebbles in the outfield -- today's Birthday Team centerfielder should be fine.
   6. vortex of dissipation Posted: October 13, 2021 at 12:14 AM (#6046009)
Spent a year playing for a team that didn't exist: Rupert Mills


The Rupert Mills story is one of my all-time favorite baseball stories.
   7. Nasty Nate Posted: October 13, 2021 at 08:05 PM (#6046175)
Yogi Berra was just the Final Jeopardy solution.
   8. John DiFool2 Posted: October 13, 2021 at 08:59 PM (#6046188)
Since awhile back someone said they never heard of the SF Crab:

https://www.mlb.com/news/the-crazy-crab-was-the-most-hated-mascot-in-sports-history

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