Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-21-2020

Whenever Tubby Spencer pops up in the news, you know it’s going to be good.

Pittsburgh Gazette Times, October 21, 1920:

W.H. McCarthy, president of the Pacific Coast Baseball League, announced today he had received a letter from Edward Spencer, former catcher for the Salt Lake club, that Babe Borton, suspended Vernon player, had offered him a $1,700 bribe.

Borton emphatically denies Tubby’s accusation and insists that he only offered Spencer $500 to throw a game.

Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: October 21, 2020 at 10:45 AM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dugout, history

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: October 21, 2020 at 10:46 AM (#5984240)
A nice pitching staff on today's Birthday Team. Whitey Ford is one of the better #2 starters in the Birthday League.

Greinke's a Hall of Famer, right? Two ERA titles, 200+ wins, 72 WAR and counting, a Cy Young Award, six Gold Gloves, six All-Star Games, approaching 3000 strikeouts, one of the better hitting pitchers of the 21st century. He kind of feels like a guy the voters are going to forget, like they did with Rolen, Lofton, and Whitaker.

C: Toby Hall (4.7 WAR)
1B: Franklin Stubbs (2.7 WAR)
2B/Manager: Bill Russell (31.3 WAR)
3B: Johnny Goryl (1.6 WAR)
SS: Khalil Greene (8.5 WAR)
LF: George Bell (20.0 WAR)
CF: Ted Uhlaender (2.8 WAR)
RF: Gabe Gross (4.6 WAR)

SP: Zack Greinke (72.2 WAR)
SP: Whitey Ford (57.1 WAR)
SP: Non-Spaceman Bill Lee (31.2 WAR)
SP: Bill Bevens (4.6 WAR)
SP: Frank Papish (4.5 WAR)
RP: Jerry Garvin (7.1 WAR)

Umpire: Vic Delmore
Fun names: Tim Spooneybarger, Juan Tyrone Eichelberger, Jon Coutlangus, Finners Quinlan
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 21, 2020 at 01:36 PM (#5984293)
SP: Zack Greinke (72.2 WAR)
SP: Whitey Ford (57.1 WAR)


I'm sort of skeptical on the relative WAR here. Ford pitched 3170 innings at a 133 ERA+. Greinke is at 2939 at 125 ERA+. Ford has 140 UER vs. 80, but that must be era based, because Ford is getting dinged for good D behind him while Greinke is neutral.
   3. SoSH U at work Posted: October 21, 2020 at 03:59 PM (#5984338)
He kind of feels like a guy the voters are going to forget, like they did with Rolen, Lofton, and Whitaker.


Rolen will be elected by the BBWAA within three years. Four tops.
   4. Jaack Posted: October 21, 2020 at 04:45 PM (#5984357)
I'm sort of skeptical on the relative WAR here. Ford pitched 3170 innings at a 133 ERA+. Greinke is at 2939 at 125 ERA+. Ford has 140 UER vs. 80, but that must be era based, because Ford is getting dinged for good D behind him while Greinke is neutral


I'm guessing Ford gets hurt a lot by the relative weakness of the AL at the time, particularly since he never had to face the best team in the league.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: October 21, 2020 at 05:03 PM (#5984369)
#2: Hard to say. Besdies defense, Greinke gains on RA9role (basically a reflection of relievers pulling down lgERA) and a big difference in park factors (100 vs 95). Eyballing it, the defensive difference gives Greinke about 5-6 wins, the role component about 4-5 wins, the park factor 6-7 wins and another 1.5 wins on batting. On the one hand, that's a lot of adjusting; on the other hand, we can't just wave all of that adjusting away. If we adjust for PF then the RA9opp-RA9 gap for Ford and Greinke is the same which would still leave Ford with the small innings edge.

I'm not sure what the comment about the UER gap being "era-based" means. By this account, Ford had good defense but still gave up many more UER. The UER are probably mostly the product of many more BIP. Contact rates obviously vary by era but those are still actual runs allowed. Avoiiding UER is one of the benefits of high K-rates. Any "era effect" on UER is already built into RA9opp anyway.

One place the "benefits" of UER can show up is in the ERA vs FIP difference. Greinke's ERA and FIP are the same; Ford "out-pitched" his FIP by half a run per 9. That could be Ford magic or it could mean that his ERA is "artificially" low because a lot of the runs that were his fault got blamed on his fielders rather than counted in his ER. (Most likely some mix of the two of course.) I use ERA+ all the time too but we know that approach favors guys charged with lots of UER; it would be nice if b-r gave us RA+ and FIP+ as well.

Now on RA9role ... I'll admit to not seeing why this is going up. For the last few years, starter and reliever ERA have been a near-match ... this year 4.46 for SP (some of whom are openers) and 4.44 for relievers (some of whom are ... delayed starters?). Relievers still have the easier job so there's justification for giving starters a bump but that bump is no longer explained by the ERA gap. For most of Greinke's career, RA9role was around 0.17 then it went up to 0.20 with the rabbit ball, then 0.22 last year and a whopping 0.26 this year. Rally, can you fill us in on how this is calculated?
   6. Walt Davis Posted: October 21, 2020 at 05:18 PM (#5984372)
#4: Good catch. Ford loses out there too. Despite more IP, his rep value is 241 (RAR - RAA) while Greinke's is 286. Ford gets a bit back on the Rrep to wins adjustment (basically an era scoring adjustment thing). Ford got about 15 Rrep per 200 IP; Robin Roberts (kinda the same era) got 19 per 200; Grainke has gotten about 19.5 per 200. I don't think there's any Rrep adjustment in Ford not having to face the Yankees but that would lead to a lower RA9opp (assuming the Yanks were among the top scorers). RA9opp would also pick up any usage patterns of Ford being saved for the better-hitting teams.
   7. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: October 21, 2020 at 05:34 PM (#5984376)
Re: Greinke's hall of fame chances, don't forget that he's not done yet. He was still productive this year, and if he hadn't switched leagues in the middle of the season last year would probably have gotten some down-ballot Cy Young votes. If he can hang around for another 30-35 wins, his case will look somewhat better to traditionalists. And with his conversion to productive junk baller, he seems like the kind of guy who will be able to hang on for a while. He's not going to sail in, but I'm pretty confident that he'll be elected eventually.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: October 21, 2020 at 05:45 PM (#5984378)
#3: probably optimistic but with the weakness of upcoming ballots, his chance of eventual election are very good. His main issue at this point, besides not being quite halfway to 75% obviously, is that there is a pretty big group clustered at 28-36%. At least some of those in the cluster will get elected but I'm not convinced they'll select Rolen as one of those -- why Rolen not Helton, Sheffield, Kent, Wagner? (Possibly all will go.) And occasionally a cluster like that does just get stuck but I'd guess that usually only happens when the ballot starts getting crowded.

Anyway, it's in situations like this where BBWAA collective behavior is extra difficult to predict and probably extra susceptible to irrational or external forces. A Blyleven campaign would likely get him over the line for sure; a Schilling-like idiocy could get him stuck. Essentially to be elected in a few year, at this point Rolen has to "go Aparicio": 28%; 32%; 37%; 42%; 67%; 85%. It would also give him a voting history similar to Billy Williams. So clearly possible, mainly a question of whether he's got another 15-20 point jump coming this year (wouldn't surprise me) or he'll move more slowly.

For those that hadn't looked, the 2021 ballot is as weak as can be. The top debut candidates are Tim Hudson, Buehrle and Torii Hunter. Schilling sails in, presumably B & C remain stuck, then it's Vizquel at 53% last year, then Rolen at 35%. Votes per ballot should plunge but it's hard to see it plunging below 5.5, maybe even hold at 6. The backlog 2020 results eat up about 5 names per ballot, possibly Hudson and Buehrle will do better than we might expect (Clemens & Pettite are the only SPs on the ballot). How many voters will be willing to submit a ballot with only 1 (or 3 if B&C voters) names on it?
   9. SoSH U at work Posted: October 21, 2020 at 05:58 PM (#5984382)
At least some of those in the cluster will get elected but I'm not convinced they'll select Rolen as one of those -- why Rolen not Helton, Sheffield, Kent, Wagner?


Because he's the one making the most progress. Sheffield has roids, so he's not going anywhere. Kent is already seven years in; he's just not on track. Helton's got a chance to ride Rolen's coattails (or pass him, but I doubt it). Wagner maybe, but those innings are going to hurt (and he's only got five years left).

Rolen has jumped from 10 percent (below all those guys) to above them in the past two ballots. Momentum may not exist in ballgames, but it does in Hall voting.

Essentially to be elected in a few year, at this point Rolen has to "go Aparicio":


You don't need to look back that far. He needs to go Walker: 34.1, 54.6, 76.

   10. AndrewJ Posted: October 21, 2020 at 07:41 PM (#5984396)
On this day in 1993: Curt Schilling shuts out the Blue Jays in Game 5 of the Series.

In 1980: The Phils win their first World Series with a 4-1 win over the Royals.

In 1975: Game Six of the '75 World Series.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogIs the Hall leaving out too many players?
(68 - 4:02pm, Dec 01)
Last: Barry`s_Lazy_Boy

NewsblogRoyals ink Michael A. Taylor to one-year contract
(7 - 3:37pm, Dec 01)
Last: RoyalFlush

NewsblogA push to recognize the statistics of Black players from baseball’s era of apartheid
(37 - 3:35pm, Dec 01)
Last: Mike Webber

NewsblogNBA Post-Bubble offseason thread
(1950 - 3:29pm, Dec 01)
Last: I am going to be Frank

NewsblogOT - Soccer Thread - Winter Is Here
(196 - 3:01pm, Dec 01)
Last: AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale

NewsblogOT - November* 2020 College Football thread
(206 - 2:43pm, Dec 01)
Last: ramifications of an exciting 57i66135

NewsblogMets not bringing back bench coach Hensley Meulens
(3 - 2:40pm, Dec 01)
Last: Adam Starblind

NewsblogYankees officially axe Staten Island affiliate; new team expected at Richmond County Ballpark
(23 - 2:17pm, Dec 01)
Last: Der-K's emotional investment is way up

NewsblogEmpty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird
(10657 - 2:11pm, Dec 01)
Last: bunyon

NewsblogBill James: The Biggest Problem With WAR
(75 - 1:31pm, Dec 01)
Last: Kiko Sakata

NewsblogFelicity Huffman Plots Acting Return in ABC Baseball Comedy
(26 - 12:55pm, Dec 01)
Last: Ron J

NewsblogSt. Paul Saints to become Twins' top minor-league team; Class AA in Wichita
(4 - 12:02pm, Dec 01)
Last: Mike Webber

NewsblogReport: Phillies can't re-sign Realmuto due to massive financial losses
(32 - 8:47pm, Nov 30)
Last: Lowry Seasoning Salt

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 11-30-2020
(6 - 6:58pm, Nov 30)
Last: VCar

NewsblogMel Rojas Jr. Drawing Interest After MVP-Caliber KBO Season
(5 - 3:21pm, Nov 30)
Last: crict

Page rendered in 0.3265 seconds
48 querie(s) executed