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Monday, July 27, 2020

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 7-27-2020

[Indianapolis] Indiana Daily Times, July 27, 1920:

A star baseball hurler ought to confine his speed to the diamond, according to Motorcycle Patrolman George F. Bailey, who testified in traffic court Monday that he found Carl Mays, the Yankee pitcher, driving his automobile at thirty-five miles an hour on St. Nicholas avenue.

Yeah, jeez, if Carl Mays isn’t careful, he could kill someone.

Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: July 27, 2020 at 10:24 AM | 7 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: carl mays, carl that kills people, dugout, history

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   1. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: July 27, 2020 at 10:25 AM (#5966005)
An excellent Birthday Team today, one of the best we've seen in months. There's a ton of infield depth.

C: Biz Mackey (0 WAR, Negro Leagues legend)
1B: Ray Boone (25.8 WAR)
2B: Davy Force (17.1 WAR)
3B: Alex Rodriguez (117.5 WAR)
SS: Joe Tinker (53.2 WAR)
LF: Don Lock (12.0 WAR)
CF: Tom Goodwin (8.5 WAR)
RF: Ryan Flaherty (0.9 WAR)

SP: Max Scherzer (60.1 WAR)
SP: Rube Walberg (36.6 WAR)
SP: Shane Rawley (20.8 WAR)
SP: Charley Hall (5.6 WAR)
SP: Brian Kingman (2.1 WAR)
RP: Yoervis Medina (2.8 WAR)

Manager/backup infielder: Leo Durocher (4.0 WAR)
Backup C: Jack Hiatt (8.5 WAR)
Backup infielder: Bump Wills (16.5 WAR)
Backup infielder: Rich Dauer (14.4 WAR)
Backup infielder: Shea Hillenbrand (6.3 WAR)
General Manager: Ed Short
Umpire: Harry Wendlestedt
-5.21 career WAR: Enrique Wilson (-5.2 WAR)
-7.2 career WAR: Jim Lillie (-7.2 WAR)
Fleet's brother: Welday Walker (-0.1 WAR)
Fun names: Moose Baxter, Irish McIlveen
Big in Japan: Brian Sikorski (-0.1 WAR)
Shot on the team bus while in drag: Kyle Denney (-0.6 WAR)
   2. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 27, 2020 at 03:47 PM (#5966137)
Jack Hiatt never got a starting job, but he was quite a good hitter for a catcher, with a lifetime 109 OPS+ based mostly on drawing bunches of walks. He finished with a higher lifetime OBP (.374) than slugging percentage (.363).

Playing in Candlestick Park in 1968 isn't going to make anyone's hitting stats look decent. Hiatt hit .232 with 4 homers that year, good for a 110 OPS+.
   3. Eric L Posted: July 27, 2020 at 03:57 PM (#5966139)
I remember Hiatt and Dick Dietz as an effective offensive catching duo. Both would be more appreciated in today’s game. The defense was ...
   4. The Honorable Ardo Posted: July 27, 2020 at 04:21 PM (#5966148)
For a brief moment (between the two Sunday night games) all 30 teams were either 2-1 or 1-2. No one started the 2020 season 3-0 or 0-3.

If we assume each game is a random Bernoulli trial, the odds of that outcome were 1 out of 5600 [1 out of (4/3)^30 = 5599.7]. That's the most conservative estimate possible; we know that some teams have more true talent than others, so the actual odds were even longer.
   5. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 27, 2020 at 05:29 PM (#5966184)
If we assume each game is a random Bernoulli trial, the odds of that outcome were 1 out of 5600 [1 out of (4/3)^30 = 5599.7]. That's the most conservative estimate possible; we know that some teams have more true talent than others, so the actual odds were even longer

the stat boy on the Dan Patrick show said that this is the first year since 1954 that no MLB team started out 3-0
   6. Walt Davis Posted: July 27, 2020 at 07:05 PM (#5966209)
#4 ... not to the 30th power because the outcomes aren't independent (one team wins, another has to lose). What you've got are 15 binomials with 3 trials each and adding up the times that all 15 series ended with either 2H, 1T or 1H, 2T.

Or if you prefer, each series (50/50 per game) had a 2/8 chance of ending in a sweep so 3/4 not ending in a sweep. (3/4)^15 is 1.3%
   7. The Honorable Ardo Posted: July 28, 2020 at 05:33 PM (#5966474)
Thank you, Walt. 1.3% is about 1 in 77 odds. Which, humorously enough, jibes well with 2020 being the first time since 1954 that this had happened.

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