Stroman has a tough decision to make. He was cruising to a very big payday but then stank for about 5 starts and then hit the IL from which he hasn't really come back yet -- he's pitching relief stints for the Cubs right now. (He might be our closer right now, it's hard to tell since we don't win games anymore.) He's got a $21 M player option which has turned out to be the QO. He can beat that no doubt but he should talk to the Cubs. Maybe he can get a deal similar to the first one, something that guarantees him (say) $25 next year with an opt-out or 2/$50. Basically I'm sure he'd like to reset his value, the Cubs would like to have him back next year, the Cubs would probably not like a long-term commitment. There's a middle ground in there somewhere.

The Cubs are in a tough spot with Bellinger. He's been great, hard to understand how a hitter this good forgot how to hit for a couple of years. But who knows how much he's looking for now plus the Cubs top prospect PCA is a CF (and a damn fine defensive one). Bellinger as a big money 1B is not that attractive (he is stellar defensively at 1B though). Note, Suzuki and Happ both under contract for the next few years, plus PCA plus Morel is a decent young hitter best suited to DH or LF probably plus Canario is another OF with real potential. It's not clear PCA will hit but if I had to guess at an upside comp for him, it would be Bellinger (or maybe Steve Finley or Devon White).

Yes or no on

Teoscar Hernandez
Kenta Maeda
Rhys Hoskins

Bellinger is very much one of those guys where the Cubs need to understand exactly what the hell happened:

2017 - 143 OPS+ at age 21
2018 - 120
2019 - 167 and MVP
2020 - 112
2021 - 44 wtf
2022 - 81
2023 - 136 at age 27

If all they get out of him is, "I'm just focusing better on helping the ballclub" and such, I'd be a bit skittish.

If they find out - and this wouldn't have to go public - that he was dealing with some severe personal life issues that were out of his hands and which have now been resolved in whatever fashion - then I'd be bullish.

and since the Cubs for damn sure ought to know, if they surprisingly didn't even make him the QO - I might sit this one out of I'm another team.

what has his public explanation been, and does it seem plausible?

Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray and Josh Hader are among the players who are near locks to receive and reject the QO this winter. Jordan Montgomery and Lucas Giolito were taken out of QO consideration by midseason trades, while Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman are ineligible as previous recipients.

Will the Marlins qualify Jorge Soler if he opts out? What about the Phillies and Rhys Hoskins or the Mariners and Teoscar Hernandez?

#3: There is zero percent chance the Cubs don't offer Bellinger the QO and zero percent chance he accespts it (barring a horrible injury between now and then). The decision is whether to make him a very, very big offer before he becomes an FA.

#2: Hoskins is an easy no. I'm not sure he gets a multi-year offer for $20 M.

Teoscar I was gonna say no but might have talked myself around to yes -- Haniger got 2/$28 plus a player option, Conforto got 2/$36 and both of thoee guys were coming off worse years than Teoscar. So a year of Teoscar at $20 is hardly terrible while another team is pretty likely to rock up to give him 2/$36.

Maeda I'll say no -- 36-yo average, fragile starter isn't a good gamble at $20 plus his track record of performance and durability isn't particularly better than Smyly (1/$8) or Miley (1/$5) or Heaney (1/$13). It wasn't all injury, some was just getting stuck in those ridiculously deep (when everybody was healthy) Dodger rotations but Maeda has just 123 starts and 687 innnings over the last 7 seasons. Even when healthy, 25 starts and 125 IP is about the best you can hope for.

Or as an extreme counter-example, the Dodgers got Kershaw coming off 22 starts, 122 IP, 177 ERA+ for 1/$20 ... and he's repeated that this year. And that's about right, Kershaw is about 2/3 of an elite starter these days and that should be around $20-25 M AAV. Maeda is at best about 2/3 of Kyle Freeland who is around $15 AAV. If the Twins like Maeda and he likes the Twins, offer him 1/$10 or so and he'll take it.

Garbage starters were getting 1/$10M last offseason. Thor got $13M. Maeda should be able to find 2 years $30M.

the Dodgers got Kershaw coming off 22 starts, 122 IP, 177 ERA+ for 1/$20

Kershaw didn't want to play anywhere else. He could have found more elsewhere.

Regardless, Maeda does not rate a QO.

No ... Eovaldi got 2/$34, Quintana 2/$26, Stripling 2/$25, Manaea 2/$25, Heaney 2/$25, Smyly 2/$19, Lyles 2/$17, Clevinger 1/$12, Gibson 1/$10, Boyd 1/$10, Cueto, Greinke, Lorenzen, etc. all <$10.

Again, over the last SEVEN seasons, Maeda has 687 IP with a 103 ERA+ and 5.6 WAR. He's not a "once great" pitcher, he has been mediocre and fragile for a long time. He has 41 starts over the last 3 years, just 21 this year so it's not like any team can think he's finally healthy again. Kyle Gibson isn't much of a pitcher but he hasn't missed more than a couple of starts over the last 7 years. Now Matt Boyd's agent earned his commission but guys like Thor, Kluber, Clevinger, etc. get $13 M becaue they used to be Thor, Kluber, Clevinger. Maeda was never a top starter.

Eovaldi, coming off 4.3 WAR in 2021 and 1.5 WAR in 20 starts in 2022, declined the QO and got just 2/$34. Martin Perez coming off a 5 WAR fluke in a mediocre career took the QO. Tyler Anderson coming off a 4 WAR fluke in a mediocre career declined the QO and got 3/$39. Heaney, Kershaw, Clevinger, Manaea, Wacha, Taillon, Thor were not offered the QO; Quintana was not eligible.

The Twins would be silly to give him the QO -- he's their 5th-best starter. He'd be foolish not to take it if they do. Any team that offers him 2/$30 is making a mistake -- the guy's gonna be 36, why give him 2 years? He'll get a 1/$13 offer? Sure, something like that, maybe from the Twins. Maeda is a 1-WAR pitcher with the potential to be a 1.5 WAR pitcher in a healthy season. He'll be paid like a 1-WAR pitcher.

respectfully walt, as a lurker who has enjoyed your writing over the years, I disagree - maeda might finally be healthy for the first time in years. as a dodgers fan, he always seemed to semi-regularly have vague elbow things pop up, and then he finally got the inevitable tj. he was also amazing in the short pandemic year. yes he's gonna be 36 but it would not surprise me at all to see him get offers in the 3/40-45 range, or at a very minimum in the chicken strip-manaea range, which means the qo might actually be in play if you think he can give you 350+ innings over those three years.

I think the smart play is to give Teoscar the QO, and his smart move is to reject it.

If he takes the QO and stays with the Mariners, he probably won’t be worth $20 million to them, but will outhit whoever they put at DH in his stead.

3--I know nothing and don't care enough to look for info, but long COVID with a gradual recovery would fit the timing pretty well, no?

#12 I don’t know, but the fact that Bellinger has continued to play good defense throughout this period—and play full seasons—makes it much less likely.

is Bellinger the comeback player of the year?

Jeimer Candelario has an argument for comeback player.

respectfully walt, as a lurker who has enjoyed your writing over the years, I disagree - maeda might finally be healthy for the first time in years. as a dodgers fan, he always seemed to semi-regularly have vague elbow things pop up, and then he finally got the inevitable tj. he was also amazing in the short pandemic year. yes he's gonna be 36 but it would not surprise me at all to see him get offers in the 3/40-45 range, or at a very minimum in the chicken strip-manaea range, which means the qo might actually be in play if you think he can give you 350+ innings over those three years.

Something something pitchers'll break your heart.

Bellinger had shoulder surgery after the 2020 season. In early 2021 he suffered a hairline fracture of his fibula in a collision. Later that season he broke a rib in a collision. These all seem like pretty good explanations for why he hit poorly.

makes sense. and if that's the answer, I'd bid early and often.

he is in his prime years, if healthy. and he sure looks healthy.

plus being able to be a plus CF or a plus 1B - depending on a team's needs - is a nice bonus.

Bah. Where are you sign Bellinger for his "versatility" and it turns out the real need is at point guard or goalie?