Among the 36 pitchers with 40-44 WAR (deGrom is at 41.9), the average number of wins is 177, the most is by Jack Morris (by far, with 254)...and the least, also by far, is deGrom, with just 84.

Looking at it the other way, among the 114 pitchers with between 80 and 88 wins, deGrom's WAR is easily the highest among starting pitchers (Rivera is at 56.3 WAR and 82 wins). Blue Moon Odom is at the bottom with just 2.2 WAR.

He's not going to make it to the HOF is he? Johan Santana Pt 2.

he has more wins than Rivera, the only unanimous HOF electee.

just saying.

Totally unforeseeable!

When Sale got his extension from the Sox there was a discussion about whether he was better than DeGrom and it was pointed out that they were very similar in value.

And still are.

He's not going to make it to the HOF is he?

DeGrom will be 35 on June 19, so it looks like time is running out for his HoF chances. He’d have to be healthier than he’s ever been at an age when health usually gets worse not better to get back into the conservation. He may still be able to help the Rangers on occasion, but seems destined to join the “Hall of Fame Stuff But Couldn’t Stay Healthy” club.

"Healther than he's ever been?" He threw 1100 innings over less than his first 6 seasnons of service time. That's as healthy as a pitcher can be. He then threw a full 2020. He has been fragile over the last 3 seasons for sure but we're not talking about a guy who's been on and off the IL for his entire career. He's yet to miss a full season since making the majors.

Some pitchers barely age at all in their late 30s. Time will tell if deGrom is one of them but nobody was betting on Verlander winning the CYA at 39 (OK, I'm sure somebody was). The Unit missed about half his age 39 season, came back for 246 innings of a 176 ERA+ (2nd in CYA ... to 41-yo Clemens) and had another 800 solid innings left on his arm. Scherzer has started to miss some starts over the last 5 years but 2022-23 is still 192 innings and 6 WAR. Kershaw (same age as deGrom so not meant as a "promising" comp) hasn't had a 30-start season since 2015 but it's still 1000 innings of 158 ERA+, 27 WAR, 18 WAA. DeGrom doesn't need that much.

DeGrom is pretty obviously never getting to 3000 innings but where future voters are going to draw the Halladay/Pedro/Koufax line is unknown. I'm guessing he needs to make it to at least 2000 innings (with some success) or win another CYA.

Speaking of "healthier than he's ever been," he is having Tommy John surgery. That sucks.

He has been fragile over the last 3 seasons for sure

Those three seasons, plus 2016, when he had to be shut down in September, represent 40% of his career.

Some pitchers barely age at all in their late 30s. Time will tell if deGrom is one of them but nobody was betting on Verlander winning the CYA at 39 (OK, I'm sure somebody was). The Unit missed about half his age 39 season, came back for 246 innings of a 176 ERA+ (2nd in CYA ... to 41-yo Clemens) and had another 800 solid innings left on his arm. Scherzer has started to miss some starts over the last 5 years but 2022-23 is still 192 innings and 6 WAR. Kershaw (same age as deGrom so not meant as a "promising" comp) hasn't had a 30-start season since 2015 but it's still 1000 innings of 158 ERA+, 27 WAR, 18 WAA. DeGrom doesn't need that much.

This didn’t age well.

He threw 1100 innings over less than his first 6 seasnons of service time. That's as healthy as a pitcher can be. He then threw a full 2020. He has been fragile over the last 3 seasons for sure but we're not talking about a guy who's been on and off the IL for his entire career. He's yet to miss a full season since making the majors.

DeGrom only has 3 seasons (2017-19) in which he pitched 200 innings (201, 217 & 204). He hasn’t topped 100 innings since 2019, and it seems quite unlikely that he could have salvaged his HoF status in whatever 125-150 inning increments he might have had left. With the update on his Tommy John surgery, he’ll now be trying to come back for his age-37 season in 2025. Good luck to him, but the HoF seems unrealistic.

Re 2: Santana had 51 WAR at age 31, and seemed to be well on his way to ~70 WAR -- he was averaging about 5 WAR per year in his last 3 seasons pre-injury.

But he only had 133 wins at age 31, and probably would've been well short of 200 by the time he was done...and the Hall doesn't usually cotton to starting pitchers with less than 200 wins unless they're named "Dizzy". (Or Sandy, or Addie.)

Some pitchers barely age at all in their late 30s.

Isn't it more like "virtually all pitchers age drastically in their mid-30s but a small handful of guys in the history of the game haven't?"

It sure seems like all the guys you named were more way, way more durable than deGrom in the first place; even Kershaw's thrown twice as many innings as deGrom has at the same age. Even someone like the Unit, who didn't really get established in the rotation until relatively late, still leaves deGrom in the dust in terms of IP through 35.

Find us a bunch of guys that had arm problems throughout their early and mid 30s before dominating in their late 30s and beyond - or even did a slow, graceful, Maddux-like fade - and you have a point. But absent that, you're really just highlighting how big of a hill deGrom would have to climb, which is the complete opposite of the point you're trying to make.

Some guys age well, sure, but they don't get more durable. Maybe deGrom can take up the knuckleball when he gets back to keep him in the rotation.

Find us a bunch of guys that had arm problems throughout their early and mid 30s before dominating in their late 30s and beyond

This just reminds me of why I love Charlie Morton so much. Waking up one day at 33/34 and being like, "What would happen if I tried to throw harder?" and then ripping through the league (mostly) from 34 to 39 (so far).

He’s 300 IP behind Lincecum (more WAR, though).

But he only had 133 wins at age 31, and probably would've been well short of 200 by the time he was done...and the Hall doesn't usually cotton to starting pitchers with less than 200 wins unless they're named "Dizzy". (Or Sandy, or Addie.)

And unless they have a big shiny C as their 'position' (the other C, closer, not catcher) the Hall really doesn't cotton to sub-100 wins like DeGrom has now.

Re 14: Morton didn't make the ASG until his 11th year in the majors...is this a record? (NOTE: Bobby Abreu made it in his ninth year.)

Re 14: Morton didn't make the ASG until his 11th year in the majors...is this a record? (NOTE: Bobby Abreu made it in his ninth year.)

Wakefield didn't make it until his 17th.

This didn’t age well.

How so? DeGrom is now having TJS at age 35 and hopefully return healthy at age 37 vs Verlander who had TJS at age 37 and returned healthy at age 39. You think I didn't expect "DeGrom to have TJS" would be coming soon? I even thought about pointing out that "strategically" it would make sense to put him under the knife now in hopes of getting three healthy years rather than having him yoyo on and off the IL for two years then give in and put him under the knife. Will he come back from TJS? I don't know ... neither do you. Wait and see.

And sure, old players fade away ... except Unit, Clemens, Ryan, Verlander, Scherzer, Moyer, Colon, Reuschel, Greinke, Blyleven, Schilling, Smoltz, Wells, Rogers, Brown, Pettitte ... hell, Charlie Morton is currently putting up a 122 ERA+ at age 39.

Johnson missed most of his age 32 season and half of his age 39 season. Verlander made 1 start in 2020 and missed all of 2021 (and if you're a stickler, 12 starts in 2015). Between ages 33-37, Colon made 47 starts in the majors. Reuschel missed a chunk of 32, all of 33, nearly all of 34, most of 35. Blyleven missed a chunk of 30, nearly all of 31 and a chunk of 32. Smoltz missed all of 33, was considered fragile enough he was consigned to the bullpen for 4 seasons. Brown missed a chunk of 36 and most of 37. Pettitte missed a chunk of 30, half of 32, a chunk of 38 and all of 39.

Pedro tore his rotator cuff. Johan hurt his shoulder twice. Coming back from shoulder injuries is a very different thing than TJS. But sure, second TJS is much tougher to effectively return from than the first.

He hasn’t topped 100 innings since 2019

You'll recall 2020, the season in which there were just 60 games played when deGrom made all 12 of his starts. This means the statement "He has been fragile over the last 3 seasons for sure but we're not talking about a guy who's been on and off the IL for his entire career" is true. So what's your point?

It sure seems like all the guys you named were more way, way more durable than deGrom in the first place; even Kershaw's thrown twice as many innings as deGrom has at the same age. Even someone like the Unit, who didn't really get established in the rotation until relatively late, still leaves deGrom in the dust in terms of IP through 35.

I'm not sure what decade you think we are living in. Kershaw made the majors at age 20 ... one would hope he has more IP than a guy who didn't debut until age 26. Of course deGrom isn't going to come back and start throwing 270 innings a year. If he comes back, he will make 30 starts a year at about 6 IP/start just like today's top starters do. Unless it's down to 5 for everybody by 2025.

Wakefield didn't make it until his 17th.

Nor did Moyer. And from his age 39 season on, he put up 118 wins.

And sure, old players fade away ... except Unit, Clemens, Ryan, Verlander, Scherzer, Moyer, Colon, Reuschel, Greinke, Blyleven, Schilling, Smoltz, Wells, Rogers, Brown, Pettitte ... hell, Charlie Morton is currently putting up a 122 ERA+ at age 39.

What is even your point with all this? Your initial assertion was that "Some pitchers barely age at all in their late 30s". Now you've named a bunch of guys to your original few who plainly faded as they hit their late 30s. Moving goalposts.

Sure, guys pitch late into their careers from time to time. Obviously that is not remotely a controversial statement. But that's not what you said originally, and none of these guys seem like an appropriate comp for where deGrom is at now.

If he comes back, he will make 30 starts a year at about 6 IP/start just like today's top starters do. Unless it's down to 5 for everybody by 2025.

Well, sure, if you stipulate that he'll come back and make 30 starts a year, then it's easy to argue that he'll come back and make 30 starts a year.

But literally the entire point is that it seems extremely unlikely that he'll do that at his age and given his history of injury. This isn't even his first TJ! He'll be back by 2025, and by then it will have been 6 years since he made 30 starts in a season. You think it's anywhere close to a given that he'll be able to do that even once, much less for a few years after that?

I mean ... nothing's impossible! If you want to say that it's strictly-speaking possible that deGrom comes back and is good enough to mount a strong HoF case, in the sense it's possible that Matt Mervis will win an MVP award someday, then OK, have fun with your truism. But you're going a couple steps beyond that, and very plainly pointing to a handful of outliers - whose career profiles have little in common with deGrom in the first place, except for the very superficial facts that "they're pitchers who, like all pitchers, occasionally had arm problems" - and extrapolating some pretty unreasonable assumptions from them.

I think that if deGrom comes back and has a long career, it'll be as a reliever. Smoltz is probably the one guy you've named who makes a little bit of sense as a comp, although obviously Smoltz's lost year came earlier in his career than deGrom's by what seems like a meaningful amount to me ... big difference between doing this at 32 and 35, I'm guessing, and certainly big enough that 4 years as a reliever would almost certainly bring deGrom to the end of his career without the last act as a starter that Smoltz had.

At any rate, the odds of deGrom ever making 30 starts in a year again seem like practically zero to me. They probably weren't all that great even when the Rangers signed him. And there's no sense in pretending that this surgery isn't a grievous blow to his HoF chances.

Nor did Moyer. And from his age 39 season on, he put up 118 wins.

If deGrom could reinvent himself as a crafty lefty, that would definitely help his longevity.

If deGrom could reinvent himself as a crafty lefty, that would definitely help his longevity.

He has the left elbow of a 16-year-old. Could pitch well into his fifties.

You'll recall 2020, the season in which there were just 60 games played when deGrom made all 12 of his starts.

While this is evidence he was healthy in 2020, it's certainly not evidence that he can remain healthy over whatever we'd be expecting from starters whenever he returns from this injury.