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Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Ray, Burnes named 2021 Cy Young winners

Robbie Ray was named the American League winner and Corbin Burnes the National League winner of the Cy Young Award by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America in results revealed on Wednesday night on MLB Network.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 17, 2021 at 07:41 PM | 48 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: corbin burnes, cy young award, robbie ray

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   1. cardsfanboy Posted: November 17, 2021 at 07:58 PM (#6053371)
Not sure how cy Young shares are decided, but Waino who got 3 points in this election was the leader for most cy young shares received for someone who has never won it, but Gerrit Cole had to have gained massive ground here. (I don't think he'll pass Waino in this 'stat' but at 30 years old, either he'll win one someday or he has a good chance of taking this "title" (used to be Schilling's title--and Chris Sale is probably 5 fifth place votes of passing Waino also)
   2. Hombre Brotani Posted: November 17, 2021 at 08:19 PM (#6053373)
I need Burnes to string together a few 200 IP seasons. He's remarkable.
   3. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 17, 2021 at 11:23 PM (#6053389)

It really should have been Wheeler. I don’t know how you can look past 46 extra innings and only marginally (if at all) worse performance.
   4. Howie Menckel Posted: November 18, 2021 at 12:13 AM (#6053392)
family and friends of the leering, late "Match Game" show host from the 1970s may be pleased by the headline
   5. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: November 18, 2021 at 07:53 AM (#6053399)
To Howie's point, I was thinking, "What would Charles Nelson Reilly think?"...
   6. kcgard2 Posted: November 18, 2021 at 09:18 AM (#6053401)
I'm genuinely surprised Burnes won. I agree with #3, Wheeler pitched 30% more innings at equal effectiveness.
   7. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: November 18, 2021 at 09:30 AM (#6053402)
Burnes is great.

167 innings for the Cy Young winner is pathetic.
   8. Baldrick Posted: November 18, 2021 at 10:37 AM (#6053406)
Ten years ago, Justin Verlander won 24 games in his Cy Young winning season.

This year, the Cy Young recipients combined for 24 wins.
   9. Ron J Posted: November 18, 2021 at 10:41 AM (#6053407)
Bah. Who was the only 20 game winner in the NL? How can a pitcher that went 20-3 not win the Cy?

(Progress. Urias finished 7th and that's about right)
   10. Baldrick Posted: November 18, 2021 at 10:50 AM (#6053408)
The difference between Burnes and Wheeler was 46 1/3 innings at a 4.08 ERA.

The difference between DeGrom and Burnes was 75 innings at...a 4.08 ERA.
   11. The Honorable Ardo Posted: November 18, 2021 at 10:55 AM (#6053409)
Does 46 1/3 innings at a 4.08 ERA have value? Yes, so I would have put Wheeler #1. But it's not an egregious error to choose Burnes.

The real head-scratcher, for me, is Scherzer getting 1st place votes and finishing ahead of Buehler.
   12. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: November 18, 2021 at 10:57 AM (#6053410)
(Progress. Urias finished 7th and that's about right)


If Buster Olney were dead, he'd be rolling over in his grave.

Actually, it's shocking that Urias didn't even receive a 4th place vote. The argument is well and truly over.
   13. Dennis Eclairskey, closer Posted: November 18, 2021 at 11:34 AM (#6053422)
The real head-scratcher, for me, is Scherzer getting 1st place votes and finishing ahead of Buehler.

I think Scherzer coming to LA affected Buehler’s support on the CY ballot. There was no clear, obvious NL Cy Young but I’d have had Buehler as my pick.

If the starters keep getting lower and lower towards maybe 125-150 IP in the coming years, how is it before a reliever who throws around 75 IP gets back in the mix ?
   14. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 18, 2021 at 01:37 PM (#6053444)
Hmm, I hadn't looked at Buehler's stats in a while. He would have been a fine choice too, maybe even ahead of Wheeler.
   15. The Duke Posted: November 18, 2021 at 02:22 PM (#6053455)
The end of the season stats were interesting in the NL. Most of the big names had a subpar last two or three starts. They all kind of ran out of steam together.

My ballot was Wheeler, Buehler, gausman, wainwright and alcantara. I use a little bit of the “how important to his team was he” logic and I believe you have to be up there in innings. Burnes, scherzer and Degrom didn’t have enough innings. Urias was awfully good. He might have been my sixth vote

To me the innings thing is more of an issue of what would 46 more innings, packed into his starts have done to Burnes’ overall numbers. Would he have been hit harder, gotten an injury like Degrom?

Alcantara finished strong - I bet he is in the mix next year. Everyone said the brewers pitchers wouldn’t hold up. They all did and I think they have four guys who could make a run at the Cy next year. They should really spend some money and upgrade the offense - their window is now.
   16. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 18, 2021 at 03:07 PM (#6053461)
Burnes had 4 fewer starts than Wheeler and 5 fewer than Buehler...part of that was due to missing 2 weeks with COVID, but I think he missed another start or two later in the season for some reason. So it's not just that he didn't go as deep into games.

Burnes was great and I don't really have a problem with him winning the award. He certainly should have been in the discussion. However, I wouldn't vote for a guy who only had 167 inning when there were equally good candidates with >200.
   17. Jose is Absurdly Correct but not Helpful Posted: November 18, 2021 at 04:01 PM (#6053468)
All year I've thought it was Burmes not Burnes.

Also every time I see this headline I think of former Expo Ray Burris. Lot of time with the Cubs and bounced around a bit but he's an Expo in my recollection.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: November 18, 2021 at 05:20 PM (#6053480)
Certainly Burris's biggest moments came with the Expos in the 1981 NLCS -- a CG shutout in G2 and 8 innings, 1 R non-decision in G5. A whopping 4 Ks over those 17 innings. :-)

In my mind, that's always the "ex-Cub" series. In G1, Hooton threw 7+ shutout innings for the win. In G2, Burris had his shutout. In G3, short-time Cub Jerry White hit the game-winning 3-run HR in the 6th. In G4, Hooton went 7+ giving up 1 UER for the win. In G5, Burris did his best then Monday hit a 9th-inning HR off of Steve Rogers. Arguably, all 5 games "won" by an ex-Cub.

G3 and 4 drew over 54,000 in Montreal. Alas G5 was a Monday day game and drew just 36,000.

I expected Scherzer to squeak this one out. I suspect he might have if the Dodgers had overtaken the Giants. The numbers to Burnes are all quite close actually except for HR/9 where the gap is quite large, will be interesting to see if Burnes can maintain that. And Scherzer beats him slightly in bWAR, I'll assume Burnes is ahead in fWAR. It is kinda startling that a 2.43 ERA could be 0.8 worse than a FIP, but there it is.

CFB, that sort of stuff is easy enough to check at b-r but looks like you'll have to wait until tomorrow for the career tables to be updated. Anyway, go down to Wainwright's CYA shares, click on the detail and it will give the share for each year (just 7% for 2021). Wainwright should move up to 2.04 career which will move him up to 20th, tied with Gibson, ahead of Greinke. He's still first among non-winners but Cole has shot up to 1.90 which puts him second, a smidgen ahead of Sale at 1.88. Scherzer has now jumped to 4.61, 3rd all-time, sneaking past Kershaw and passing Verlander on the way. He's still 0.3 behind Maddux but will need to turn into Randy Johnson to catch Randy Johnson.
   19. Hombre Brotani Posted: November 18, 2021 at 05:24 PM (#6053481)
All year I've thought it was Burmes not Burnes.
It's pronounced "boooo-urnes."
   20. cardsfanboy Posted: November 18, 2021 at 07:03 PM (#6053488)
CFB, that sort of stuff is easy enough to check at b-r but looks like you'll have to wait until tomorrow for the career tables to be updated. Anyway, go down to Wainwright's CYA shares, click on the detail and it will give the share for each year (just 7% for 2021). Wainwright should move up to 2.04 career which will move him up to 20th, tied with Gibson, ahead of Greinke. He's still first among non-winners but Cole has shot up to 1.90 which puts him second, a smidgen ahead of Sale at 1.88. Scherzer has now jumped to 4.61, 3rd all-time, sneaking past Kershaw and passing Verlander on the way. He's still 0.3 behind Maddux but will need to turn into Randy Johnson to catch Randy Johnson.


For the record, have I ever told you how much I love your input, you just do a freaking incredible job.
   21. Jack Sommers Posted: November 18, 2021 at 11:19 PM (#6053522)
For the record, have I ever told you how much I love your input, you just do a freaking incredible job.


Same here
   22. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 18, 2021 at 11:25 PM (#6053524)
This year, the Cy Young recipients combined for 24 wins.

Second lowest total for Cy young winners in the 1 per league era. it took the strike year of 1981 AND one of the awards going to a reliever to come in at 19. Otherwise, every year that a reliever grabbed one of the Cys, the combined total was higher.
   23. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: November 18, 2021 at 11:45 PM (#6053527)
The ALL-TIME leader in K/9 is... Robbie Ray. Nolan Ryan only had two seasons that matched Ray's CAREER mark. Wow, context matters. (Ryan pitching in 2021 would have been a lot of fun. Well, not to watch. But the box scores would have been fun to look at.) The career mark had belonged to Chris Sale, but that slacker only struck out 11 batters per 9 innings this year, and fell off the pace.

Eight of the top 10 in K/9 are active. Ryan (#16) is the top ranked pitcher to not appear in the 21st century. Here, in all it's glory, is the K/9 career leader board, for players who didn't appear in the 21st century:

16 - Ryan
22 - Koufax
29 - McDowell
33 - Lee Smith
48 - Eric Plunk
49 - El Sid
51 - J.R. Richard
72 - Bob Veale
77 - Mark Davis

Of course we knew the game has changed dramatically, but that's wild. 87 of the top 100 in all-time K/9 have pitched since 2000. Also, this list is a fun collection of pitchers. I did not expect to see Eric Plunk.
   24. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 18, 2021 at 11:56 PM (#6053528)
Second lowest total for Cy young winners in the 1 per league era. it took the strike year of 1981 AND one of the awards going to a reliever to come in at 19. Otherwise, every year that a reliever grabbed one of the Cys, the combined total was higher.
Very telling. I assume the 9 wins separating the CY winner from the league leader this year (in the NL) is also a record for years in which a starter won.
   25. SoSH U at work Posted: November 19, 2021 at 12:09 AM (#6053529)
Very telling. I assume the 9 wins separating the CY winner from the league leader this year (in the NL) is also a record for years in which a starter won.


Probably. When Felix won, he trailed CC by eight wins.

   26. cardsfanboy Posted: November 19, 2021 at 09:02 AM (#6053537)
Update on Cy Young Shares. Walt nailed it with Cole moving to 1.90, Waino jumped to 1.98 , Scherzer jumped to 4.61. (just a reminder, that the Cy Young voting has changed from 3 spots to 5 spots relatively recently--- this is the first time Wainwright received votes on a ballot with five spots)
   27. BDC Posted: November 19, 2021 at 09:13 AM (#6053539)
every year that a reliever grabbed one of the Cys, the combined total was higher

Speaking of which, the last reliever to win a CYA was Eric Gagne in 2003. From the first (Mike Marshall in 1974) to Dennis Eckersley in 1992, it was unremarkable for a reliever to win; then a decade till Gagne, now almost two with none. Despite or because of the shrinkage of starter workload in the 21st century. Relievers are more important than ever now, but I guess two things happened: the mystique wore off closers and so few relievers had more than one inning per appearance.
   28. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 19, 2021 at 09:24 AM (#6053541)
deGrom’s first CYA he also trailed the leader by 8 wins. His second award he trailed the leader by 7. So 9 is probably the most for a SP.
   29. cookiedabookie Posted: November 19, 2021 at 12:48 PM (#6053569)
Of course we knew the game has changed dramatically, but that's wild. 87 of the top 100 in all-time K/9 have pitched since 2000.

K%+ rankings, minimum 2000 IP:

1. Dazzy Vance 225
2. Nolan Ryan 183
3. Randy Johnson 176
4. Sandy Koufax 173
5. Lefty Grove 170
6. Bob Feller 168
7. Pedro Martinez 168
8. Van Mungo 161
9. Lefty Gomez 160
10. Walter Johnson 160
11. Tommy Bridges 158
12. Johnny Vander Meer 156
13. Sam McDowell 153
14. Roger Clemens 150
15. Hal Newhouser 150
16. Bob Shawkey 147
17. Max Scherzer 143
18. Ron Guidry 142
19. Johan Santana 142
20. David Cone 141
21. Hippo Vaughn 140
22. Bobo Newsom 140
23. Curt Schilling 139
24. Dutch Leonard 138
25. Allie Reynolds 138
26. Tom Gordon 137
27. Charley Root 136
28. Carl Hubbell 135
29. Clayton Kershaw 135
30. Steve Carlton 135

Much more historically mixed, with some fun names in there.
   30. Born1951 Posted: November 19, 2021 at 01:04 PM (#6053573)
K%+ rankings, minimum 2000 IP:

Very cool list. Dazzy Vance's dominance was amazing.
   31. taxandbeerguy Posted: November 19, 2021 at 03:43 PM (#6053594)
29 - How far back does that go to? Dazzy Vance is just wow. I would expect to see a couple other flamethrowers on there in the form of Rube Waddell and Amos Rusie although they have pre 1900 careers, so may not have qualified.
   32. Hombre Brotani Posted: November 19, 2021 at 05:37 PM (#6053613)
1. Dazzy Vance 225
The Dazzy Vance story is kind of remarkable. How many guys end up having a good career beginning in his 30s, much less a Hall of Fame career?
   33. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: November 19, 2021 at 05:56 PM (#6053621)
How many guys end up having a good career beginning in his 30s, much less a Hall of Fame career?


Hoyt Wilhelm almost qualifies. (Of course Vance also only almost qualifies.) I can't think of anyone who qualifies without the "almost" qualifier.
   34. Ron J Posted: November 19, 2021 at 06:22 PM (#6053627)
Vance explaining his style:

“Most pitchers try to save their arm. They won’t put much stuff on the ball except in the pinch. I generally put a lot of stuff on every thing I throw. That’s my theory of getting results with the least effort in the long run. But I always plan to have something up my sleeve. I don’t cut loose with everything I’ve got more than four or five times a game. When the bases are full and you’ve got two and three on the batter, you’re pretty apt to let fly and get your shoulder blades, your ears and your tonsils behind that pitch.”

Or to put it another way, while he was active nearly all pitchers pitched to contact and he simply put a lot more on the ball than nearly anybody else. (and most of the people who went higher effort didn't stay effective all that long. George Earnshaw came up a pure power pitcher but lost the A+ fastball early -- though he also got a late start in the majors) Though he wasn't a modern maximum effort pitcher. He also needed more more rest than most top pitchers of the day (going on 4 days or longer rest in over half of his starts) and in Brooklyn he ran into a manager smart enough to accommodate this.
   35. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 19, 2021 at 06:31 PM (#6053630)
What's the "almost," Ziggy? Vance had 33 innings of 62 ERA+ ball in his 20s.
   36. SoSH U at work Posted: November 19, 2021 at 06:34 PM (#6053631)
What's the "almost," Ziggy? Vance had 33 innings of 62 ERA+ ball in his 20s.


I took it to mean that he almost had a career that started in his 30s, not when the good portion started.
   37. Padraic Posted: November 19, 2021 at 06:53 PM (#6053632)
These low IP, low win, dominant pitchers are boring for season awards. It's a joke. I would complain about the AL Cy Young, but I think Ray's 187 led the league!

People kind of forget this in the "Win is dead" narrative of 2010, but King Felix pitched a hell of a lot more innings then most anyone else that year. Only 12 more than CC (#3), but 40 more than Price (#2) and Lester (#4). 20 more IP than any non-CC pitcher who received votes.

The low wins were a result of a bad team and luck, not an ability to go deep in games. Felix had 25 decisions that year, Burnes had a whopping 16 decisions. There is no narrative. I buy that he may have had an objective benefit to the Brewer's equal to Wheeler, but 11-5 is so dull.
   38. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: November 20, 2021 at 12:01 AM (#6053661)
Is Burnes unable to go deep in games? These days the reason that pitchers get pulled early is mostly that it's suboptimal, from the team's perspective, to have them pitch longer. Not that they couldn't do it.

There is no narrative.


Narrative doesn't win baseball games. But if you want one, he struck out 234 batters in only 167 innings. That's pretty crazy. It's the 8th-best ratio all-time. (And two of the seasons ahead of him were in the short 2020 "season".) The narrative is that when he was on the hill, he just mowed down batters, who didn't stand a chance. (Also evidenced by leading the league in ERA.) They didn't just get out, they didn't even put the ball in play. Another way to look at it is that 46% of the outs that he recorded were by strikeout. (Sure, context. But narrative doesn't need to adjust for context. See, e.g., Sandy Koufax.)
   39. I don't want to talk about Rocco Posted: November 20, 2021 at 02:52 AM (#6053670)
Brewers had pitchers on a 6 man rotation all season. Management big on limiting guys from facing lineup a third time 100 pitches max.

Unless Burnes, or anyone, was just crushing the opponent six innings was the max a guy would pitch. Seven innings was a big deal.

Burnes missed time with COVID. And any pitcher had anything hinting of injury was shut down min 2 weeks
   40. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 20, 2021 at 07:05 AM (#6053676)
Did the Brewers really have a 6-man rotation? Burnes started 28 games, missed two weeks to COVID, and had one or two other missed starts later in the season. That seems like pretty normal usage.

Edit: so, looking it up, Burnes only pitched twice on 4 days’ rest all season. Wheeler did it 14 times, Buehler did it 13 times. So there’s definitely some truth to what you wrote.
   41. I don't want to talk about Rocco Posted: November 20, 2021 at 08:31 AM (#6053679)
40: not some truth. Fact. From one of many articles online discussing Brewers approach. This is from MLB

Managerial decision: Six-man rotation
The Brewers knew they had talented starting pitchers, but there was no road map for how to use them over a 162-game regular season coming off the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Early on, club officials decided to build in extra rest, first via the off-days on the schedule and then by adding a sixth starter in Eric Lauer. It’s hard to argue with the results. Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are legitimate National League Cy Young Award contenders. Freddy Peralta was, too, before coming down with some minor shoulder irritation in mid-August that represented the only arm trouble for Milwaukee's starters so far. Houser has taken a big step forward, including throwing the Brewers’ first nine-inning complete-game shutout in seven years on Sept. 4 against the Cardinals. And Lauer has bounced back in a big way from a disappointing debut season with Milwaukee in 2020.

“This is about getting seven months' worth,” manager Craig Counsell said at the All-Star break. “And so that's been the focus since Day 1, is seven months of pitching. … There's not necessarily a known right answer, that we have a book to use to figure that out, but I think what we've done so far for the starters has helped them feel fresh every time they take the mound.”
   42. I don't want to talk about Rocco Posted: November 20, 2021 at 08:34 AM (#6053680)
From a Yahoo article:

How the Brewers built in extra rest

In addition to their elite positioning on the ERA leaderboard, the Brewers’ top three starters are among the league leaders in a different stat: Starts on five or more days of rest.

A "normal" five-man rotation would send pitchers to the mound on four days rest most of the time, but as Rob Mains has documented at Baseball Prospectus, the modern game is shifting that definition of normal. In far more dramatic fashion than any other contender, the Brewers are making a habit of giving their best pitchers extra rest. In 2021, Woodruff has made a league-leading 22 starts with five or more days rest. Peralta has made 19, and Burnes will make his 20th such start Tuesday night against the Cincinnati Reds — who are in a race for the second NL wild-card spot.

In lieu of caving to the pressures of a long, grueling season, the Brewers have accumulated and used depth to fill that tricky fifth day. Beyond fourth starter Adrian Houser, they also re-signed veteran starter Brett Anderson and acquired lefty Eric Lauer. Swingman Brent Suter has started once, and regularly provides length out of the bullpen that allows the top of the pitching pyramid to stay on the stretched-out schedule.
   43. I don't want to talk about Rocco Posted: November 20, 2021 at 08:41 AM (#6053681)
This is where someone else shows up and explains how what the Brewers did wasn’t really a six man rotation

Just sharing that this is how the Crew described trying to give the main starters additional rest during the season. Call it load management like in the NBA if that is preferred

Woody and Burnes didn’t like it But they did their thing and didn’t openly ##### about the approach. But when asked they were candid and said they would prefer to pitch more frequently. Freddy liked it.

I am sure Brett F———- Anderson loved it as he got to pitch in the majors when he should be coaching
   44. I don't want to talk about Rocco Posted: November 20, 2021 at 10:53 AM (#6053689)
Ok those posts had an edge. Sorry. But yeah, Brewers made it an emphasis to give starters rest even though that meant not great options started though Lauer picked it up late
   45. Jesse Barfield's Right Arm Posted: November 20, 2021 at 12:19 PM (#6053701)
Narrative doesn't win baseball games. But if you want one, he struck out 234 batters in only 167 innings.


Correct. Narrative's don't win games, but they do make for a more interesting awards season. That's why I like to use separate stats for team building/analysis and giving awards. Starting pitchers who go deep into games are more interesting than guys that strike out a bunch of people in 5/6 IP, turn the game over to people who strike out ever more per 9, and compile all of 15 decisions.

Another way to look at it is that 46% of the outs that he recorded were by strikeout.


That's even more boring!
   46. Walt Davis Posted: November 20, 2021 at 05:09 PM (#6053765)
For the record, have I ever told you how much I love your input

You have, many times. And I've probably never said that I appreciate your appreciation.
   47. Walt Davis Posted: November 20, 2021 at 06:45 PM (#6053780)
I've found it useful to either distinguish between "man" and "day" in discussing rotations or to refer to half-men.

There are lots of off-days during the season, give or take one per week. So SPs get "extra" rest all the time. Back in the late 70s until the early 90s, many teams ran a 5-day rotation. This sort of pattern:

Maddux on Mon, Glavine on Tues, Smoltz on Wed, off-day on Thurs, #4 starter on Fri, Maddux on Sat, Glavine on Sun, off-day on Mon, Smoltz on Tues, #4 on Wed, Maddux on Thurs ... etc. Your top 3-4 starters went with 4-days rest unless the schedule gave them a 5th day off. Your #5 starter got skipped basically every time you didn't play 5 games in 5 days.

That's a 5-day rotation or, given all the skips of #5, a 4.5-man rotation. I picked the Braves because they were the last team I know of to do it (plus a usually healthy rotation makes these things easier to see). For example, the 1993 Braves had 144 starts from the big 3 and Avery; 14 from Pete Smith and 6 from Mercker (for some reason, they were legit starts, not a bullpen day, maybe a platoon thing with Smith late in the season). That was by design.

For the last 30 years or so, most of baseball has been in a 5-man (or 5-game I suppose) rotation -- which is just not skipping your #5 even if you could. Over time, I'd say it's also become common in a long stretch with no days off to mix in a 6th starter at some point. There will be plenty of times when the whole rotation gets a 5th day off due to an off-day. In 2018, Scherzer made 33 starts and had more than 4 days rest 13 times. His longest stretch of starts on 4 DR each was just 3 (twice).

For the Brewers, I wonder if they had more off-days than most teams. As noted, Burnes made 28 starts, he missed two in his first stint away and one in his second so would have made 31 starts while almost never starting on 4-days rest. I suspect the Brewers are running a 5.5 man/6-day rotation.

The Brewers used the same 5 guys for their first 20 games ... which took place over 24 days. So every team with that schedule would have been the same. The way the schedule worked out, it basically reset exactly as they'd like -- Woodruff pitched on the 1st, 7th, 13th, 19th ... and 25th which was game #21. Burnes pitched on the 3rd, 8th, 14th, 20th ... and 26th. Houser was the original #3 guy and he pitched on 6 days rest on the 27th. But they weren't going to get a day off this week so on the 28th (Wed) they put in a 6th starter. This is also when Burnes starts his 2+ week time away.

That allowed them to keep Woodruff on the 1st of May, on 5 days rest. He was back on 4 days rest on the 6th. But then 4 games and one day off and he's back on the 12th although he could have started the 11th on 4-days rest, pushing Peralta out to 6 days. He pitched again on the 18th following a day off then on the 24th although he could have gone on the 23rd, again pushing Peralta further out. To this point though, that's the same usage he'd have gotten in a 5-man rotation -- i.e. a strict 5-man also doesn't push back Peralta's start in favor of Woodruff on 4 DR. In the last week of May, with no days off, they add a 6th starter again and Woodruff goes on the 30th but the 6th starter goes again on June 1.

So we're at the end of May and the Brewers have used a 6th starter three times. First at the end of April during a 17 games in 17 days stretch (and with Burnes out); next at the end of May in both turns of a 12 games in 12 days stretch.

The Brewers then played a lot with 37 games in 39 days until the AS break. The 6th starter is in there most of the time during this stretch but they did take advantage of both of the scheduled days off to use a 5-man turn. Most 5-man rotations probably wouldn't have used a 6th starter so often but they probably would have mixed in a couple of 6th starts during that kind of stretch.

After the AS break it does look like they went to a fairly strict 6-man rotation. They did have a couple of rainout/DHs and a 16/16 stretch but also plenty of chances to go back to a 5-man when they still used a 6-man. Of course they were cruising to the division title through Sept and many teams will add a 6th man in those circumstances. Anyway, I'd say they were running a 6-day rotation in the first half and probably a 6-man rotation in the second half. Some splits

Woodruff: 18 starts in 92 games first half (5-man rotation**); 12 starts in 70 games (6-man rotation)
Peralta: 17 starts (1 relief); 10 starts
Houser: 16 starts (1 relief); 10 starts (1 relief)
Anderson: 13 starts; 11 starts
Lauer: 9 starts, 11 starts
Burnes: 15 starts (plus 2 starts missed); 13 starts
Others 4 starts; 3 starts

Question of cause and effect. Peralta, Houser and Lauer all had ERA+ over 130 and even Anderson was at 101. Do they stick with a 6-man rotation if, say, Anderson puts up an 80 ERA+?

** EDIT: I mean they were probably running a 5.5-man or 6-day rotation but had so many off-days that a standard 5-man rotation would have been the same)

   48. Walt Davis Posted: November 20, 2021 at 07:07 PM (#6053788)
#29: That's interesting that only a couple of modern guys show up with Scherzer in the middle and Kershaw near the bottom. Of course few pitchers are in the 2000 IP range these days but it also reflects that is the whole era/context that's much different, not that individual performances are necessarily off the charts.

Along those lines, I wonder what HR%+ would look like today. We are not seeing massive individual seasonal totals nor massive career totals necessarily -- even Bryce Harper at his current pace will need to reach 10,000 PAs to get to 500 HR and it's far from clear that guys like Gallo will hang on long enough to put up monster totals. With the HR binge, it's more that "everybody" is gonna hit at least 250 HRs now.

As an example, Canseco had a 5.7% rate in a 2.5% context (259 HR%+); Gallo 6.6% in a 3.2% context (206); Bobby Bonds 4.1% in a 1.9% context (216); Klu 4.3/2.1 (205); Rudy York 4.1/1.3 (315). Gallo as a modern-day equivalent of Klu or Bonds seems perfectly reasonable to me. York (and Trosky) were freaks of their day.

A big difference is that Javy Baez (4.6 HR%) and Correa (4.1) hit them as/more often than Bonds, Klu, York, Trosky while playing GG defense at SS ... but still, prime Ernie Banks kicks all their butts. (Prime EB hit HRs as often as Gallo for crying out loud.)

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