I smell a rat. This looks like another deal where TB is paying something close to "full price" (given these are arb buyout deals) on borderline guys who had "beeakout" 2022s. As with pretty much any deal of this type, if the guy is good to the point where the option year(s) become a bargain, then it works out well for the team. And with most teams you'd add "and if it flops, it's not much money" but this is the Rays. One possibility is that they have faith in their own projections and think the breakouts are for real -- and maybe only one of them needs to be for real for these deals to work out well in the collective.

But I keep wondering if these extensions are almost designed to be traded. Fairbanks in particular -- Tampa is paying him much more than arb non-closers get which might make sense if he was gonna be their next closer. But they haven't had one since 2019 and that guy (and 2018 closer Sergio Romo) were clearly not viewed as long-term guys. It's as if they plan to use him as a closer in 2023 and, if he succeeds, then some other team will overpay for that contract. Diaz meanwhile is a guy whose poor-mediocre glove has always balanced out his above-average bat until last year when he put up a 143 OPS+. A late bloomer (well, Cuban) about to move to 1B/DH, turning 31 ... why pay full arb price and why worry about him leaving in two years if you go year to year. But if he can kinda repeat this year, then you can sell high on this conttract. Of course they could have sold high this offseason without the contract.

So I'm thinking they're seeing extra trade value in having the extension already signed. My spidey sense tells me that next offseason, we'll see at least one of the headlines "Rays trade closer Fairbanks for prospects" or "Rays trade all-star 1B Diaz for prospects." Of course it's the Rays, probably a decent bet on those headlines anyway.

I think Walt is probably right: Based on these players' current roles, levels of performance, and contract situation, there really aren't any "savings" for the team. The value comes from either:

1) Expected increased performance
2) Higher-leverage roles, and/or
3) Increased trade value because of team control

One thing I like about the Rays is that they are always trying things, always interesting, and typically successful in their innovations. When you take all of the concerns and complaints you hear about MLB, concerns about the long term health, etc., it typically comes down to: Major-league baseball needs to become more entertaining. I mean, the NBA is a very entertaining product, but they are very concerned about the length of the season devaluing the regular-season games, and a ton of "load management", especially on the back end of back-to-backs. They only play 82 games, and it is a problem - if baseball is going to keep playing anything like 162 games, they need the product to be more interesting on a day-to-day basis, as well as throughout the calendar year. It isn't just the product on the field (though that is the primary goal, obviously); it is also the product off the field. The Rays make talking about baseball more interesting, and I appreciate that a lot.

Another possibility - as the AL East becomes more competitive (Orioles are arriving, Blue Jays have arrived and are sticking around) the Rays are incentivized to make these floor-raising moves instead of being able to count on scrap-heaping their way into third place or better.

Another possibility - as the AL East becomes more competitive (Orioles are arriving, Blue Jays have arrived and are sticking around) the Rays are incentivized to make these floor-raising moves instead of being able to count on scrap-heaping their way into third place or better.

I'm a little surprised the Rays aren't going the other way here. If the division is that tough, why not trade these older, current value guys now, and reload? They've got a bunch of former hot prospects (Josh Lowe, Taylor Walls, Vidal Brujan) that could use to play every day to see what they are.

I don't think the division is getting tougher to the degree that it would shape their plans. It would be a fools errand to try to wait around for the other 4 teams to be collectively soft, because when it happens it's hard to predict in advance enough to be useful.

I don't think the division is getting tougher to the degree that it would shape their plans.

I don't know if it is or isn't, just reacting to the hypothesis.

I'm a little surprised the Rays aren't going the other way here. If the division is that tough, why not trade these older, current value guys now, and reload?

Why do that when this front office has proven that they can remain competitive without burning it to the ground first? If they're confident that they can continue winning now and also be in good position three years from now, they should absolutely do that.

Also, I wonder if Tampa might be more sensitive to sustained periods of being not-good than some other teams. Nobody's coming out the historic Tropicana Field for the vibe, after all, or because they're attached to specific players. They start losing, and I imagine ticket sales and TV/radio advertising dry up quickly, and that can send them into a spiral that's hard to get out of. That sort of thing isn't really helping the A's get a new ballpark/city, but is instead destroying a fanbase that's been there twice as long as the one in Tampa.

I don't think the division is getting tougher to the degree that it would shape their plans. It would be a fools errand to try to wait around for the other 4 teams to be collectively soft, because when it happens it's hard to predict in advance enough to be useful.

Yeah. Been waiting 30 years for a soft Yankee team.

I am very surprised that The Rays will continue to renew the contract because the previous information contexto wordle released did not mention much about this issue.