By the record of recent years, even a steady consumption of innings isn't guaranteed.

So much money spent for such mediocre returns

You don't know the "returns" until afterwards, right? Or I guess you could mean last year.

Of the year before....or the year before.....or the year before

Henry really must have some "Major League" type deal going, where he gets to make billions if the team really tanks in 2023. Lose Bogaerts, sign this guy and a bunch of expensive relievers, don't sign Eovaldi or Devers. There's clearly something nefarious going on; this level of incompetence cannot be rational.

Henry really must have some "Major League" type deal going, where he gets to make billions if the team really tanks in 2023. Lose Bogaerts, sign this guy and a bunch of expensive relievers, don't sign Eovaldi or Devers. There's clearly something nefarious going on; this level of incompetence cannot be rational.

Bloom could also simply be incompetent and Henry is distracted by his real businesses.

It is more of the last few years. In 2021, it was Garrett Richards and Martin Perez. In 2022, it was Michael Wacha and Rich Hill. In 2023, it is Kluber and Paxton.

Bloom is buying time with short-term veteran options for starting pitching, players who are typically available for short-term deals worth between $5m-$12m for a year (sometimes with some second-year option). They generally are not expected to provide ERA+ of above 100; rather, the definition of success is making 20+ starts, giving the team 120+ innings of 90-100 ERA+ pitching.

Meanwhile, Bloom hopes that a few things will happen with the time he is trying to buy:

1) One or more of these signings "pop" - Wacha is probably the best result of the batch thus far. The problem there is that the pitcher is going to use it as a successful "show me" year, so if Bloom wants to retain that pitcher, he is going to have pay more than he wants for a three-year deal. (Indeed, Wacha has not re-signed with Boston, likely because he knows this is his best shot to get a 3/$36m kind of deal, and Boston won't do that. If he can't get it out in the market, he may come back to Boston for $10m for a year, with a second-year option that vests if he hits targets, etc.)

2) Chris Sale returns to past form. They are paying him like an ace, which is a big part of the Red Sox problem right now: An eighth of their payroll is going to a guy who doesn't play. They can't plan like they have an ace...but their money for an ace is allocated for the next two years.

3) Younger guys will steadily fill in the starting rotation. Pivetta was probably the best trade Bloom has made - a relatively young pitcher who is very average...but is extremely durable. Basically, they can pencil in 30 starts and 170 innings at cheap money of average starting pitching. That is a very valuable asset. But Bloom is hoping he can finally start plugging in a few slots in the rotation with above-average young guys. The plan right now appears to include Bello, Whitlock, and maybe Houck in the rotation, Pivetta is a fourth slot (unless he is traded, which seems unlikely). Then Sale and Kluber are there, if they are healthy.

2021 represented everything going right with a plan like this: The rotation was historically healthy. Eovaldi pitched at the top of his game. Whitlock was a complete surprise in the bullpen, and for half a season, Ottavino was stone cold awesome. The offense was good enough to support a highly stable, average starting pitching staff, buttressed by an above-average bullpen.

2022 represented not the worst-case scenario...but a pretty bad one. The veteran stopgaps were not as reliable or healthy, forcing the 6th-through-9th-best options to make too many starts. They were mainly young guys (which is good!) but they were generally inconsistent: Seabold was awful, Winckowski and Crawford had moments, but generally poor...those three guys started 31 games in 2022. That's virtually an entire starting rotation slot. Bello was excellent down the stretch, and has a chance at being a legit above-average starter going forward. Whitlock could also be very good this year as a starter. Houck is tough to predict.

But the Kluber signing probably shuts the door on a Wacha return, so this is probably what we're looking at for 2023. I think Bloom having a job in Boston beyond 2023 is going to come down to the success of the young pitchers, and the health of Chris Sale. If both go well, this could be an excellent pitching staff. If neither goes well, this is one of the worst teams in baseball.

Henry really must have some "Major League" type deal going, where he gets to make billions if the team really tanks in 2023. Lose Bogaerts, sign this guy and a bunch of expensive relievers, don't sign Eovaldi or Devers. There's clearly something nefarious going on; this level of incompetence cannot be rational.

Nah, it's more of a Brewster's millions situation, where he has to spend all the money but have nothing to show for it to get the big payoff.


Kidding aside, and again noting that I don't understand what they are doing here, this team looks to be clearly improved over last year's. By position:

C same
1B much better
2B slightly better (assuming Story plays 2B)
SS much worse
3B same
LF much better
CF better
RF much better
DH better
Rotation same
Bullpen much better

This team, as currently constituted, looks like it should win in the low- to mid-80s. Adding a SS or 2B would do wonders for them (and not getting Segura for 2/17 is a mystery at this point). This is not to say I'm happy with how this is being done. I would rather they had the foresight to lock up Bogaerts and/or the guts to commit long-term to some top talent.

Edit:
I know some will be skeptical that the rotation is equal to last year's, but last year's rotation only put up 8.6 fWAR. That seems like a very reasonable baseline for this year, even if Sale, Whitlock, and Paxton are unable to stay healthy. (I mean, of course Sale is going to be healthy. What are the chances he misses time again--he's due!)

The Red Sox have to be one of the most unpredictable teams in MLB right now - they could go to the WS if things break right (IE: players don't break), or they could be dead last in MLB if things go wrong (IE: lots of breakage). The rotation is nuts - Sale (11 games past 3 years, but before that was up to a 7 fWAR pitcher), Kluber (5 total WAR past 4 years combined but was a 5-7 fWAR guy before that for 5 years in a row), Paxton (6 games past 3 years, but a 3-4 WAR guy for 4 years in a row before that), Pivetta (meh, a 2-3 fWAR guy but also had injury issues 2019-20 it seems with 0.1 WAR between those years), and Garrett Whitlock (throw just 151 IP in the majors over 2 seasons). TONS of variability there. If everyone is healthy that could be a killer rotation, but the odds of that has to be viewed as very low. Boston's MVP should they win this year is going to be their trainer if he can keep those guys from falling apart (tons of duct tape needed).

I think the biggest issue for the Red Sox is the division now - the Jays are finally spending like the massive market they are, the Yankees are acting like the Yankees again, the Rays always find a way, and the O's finally have hope. The AL East is a beast. Should be interesting with a more balanced schedule how it changes things for the WC - I wouldn't be shocked if the AL Central finds itself without a 500 team (although I think Cleveland should be OK). With the AL West having strong teams in Houston, Seattle, and Texas (blowing a fortune) mixed with the Angels having 2 generational players you have a lot of really, really good teams out there. Poor Oakland and most of the AL Central will be spending the next couple of years dreaming of a group of kids gelling at just the right time to give them a 2-3 year window of contention then another decade of crap.

Yeah there is a wide range of outcomes which wouldn't be too surprising, but I think it's almost impossible that they end up with either the worst or the best record in MLB (assuming no huge surprise transactions in the coming 3 months).

LF much better
CF better
RF much better
DH better

Did I miss something? (actually asking) Yoshida upgrades one of those positions. How are Verdugo, Hernandez, Duran and nobody an upgrade on Verdugo, Hernandez, Duran and JDM? Or is this a "those first 3 guys have to be better" statement? JDM wasn't good last year but a rotation of Dalbec and whichever maybe 100 OPS+ OF isn't playing today doesn't seem promising.

2) Chris Sale returns to past form. They are paying him like an ace, which is a big part of the Red Sox problem right now: An eighth of their payroll is going to a guy who doesn't play. They can't plan like they have an ace...but their money for an ace is allocated for the next two years.

$22M shouldn't really be constraining them. That's not nearly ace money anymore, and their 2023 CBT payroll currently sits at $200M, including Sale.

If they spent the extra $70M that we know they can afford, they probably be a contender.

I mean, of course Sale is going to be healthy. What are the chances he misses time again--he's due!

Rumor has it that Sale may be traded, which might improve the Red Sox balance sheet, if anyone still goes to or watches the games.

Did I miss something? (actually asking) Yoshida upgrades one of those positions. How are Verdugo, Hernandez, Duran and nobody an upgrade on Verdugo, Hernandez, Duran and JDM? Or is this a "those first 3 guys have to be better" statement? JDM wasn't good last year but a rotation of Dalbec and whichever maybe 100 OPS+ OF isn't playing today doesn't seem promising.

Presumably Yoshida represents a big upgrade on Bradley and a cast of thousands. Even if he's just a 2 win player that's about a 3 win improvement. Verdugo...I think will be better. He has been worse every year of his Sox career for some reason. He was very good in the second half last year and I think just generally is a good player so I think an improvement there is reasonable to expect. Similarly I think with Hernandez somewhere between 2021 and 2022 is probably a reasonable baseline.

Turner vs. Martinez is actually mildly interesting given the trade nature of the FA signings. If I had to use the highly sophisticated system Darren used I'd say LF/CF are "better", RF is "much better" and DH is "about the same."

Did I miss something? (actually asking) Yoshida upgrades one of those positions. How are Verdugo, Hernandez, Duran and nobody an upgrade on Verdugo, Hernandez, Duran and JDM? Or is this a "those first 3 guys have to be better" statement? JDM wasn't good last year but a rotation of Dalbec and whichever maybe 100 OPS+ OF isn't playing today doesn't seem promising.

Yes, you missed the Turner signing. He projects to be better than JDM was last year.

In LF, Yoshida projects to be better than Verdugo was. In center, Hernandez projects to be better this year than last year. And in right, Verdugo projects to be better than Bradley and the others they ran out there.

[7]

Number of players that meet criteria in a season for a team, in 2022, in the regular season, requiring ERA+ <= 100 and Innings Pitched >= 120 and ERA+ >= 90 and Games Started >= 20, sorted by descending instances.

                                                             
Rk   Team Season Count                            Player List
1     SEA   2022     3 Chris Flexen Marco Gonzales Robbie Ray
2     BOS   2022     2                 Rich Hill Nick Pivetta
3     NYY   2022     1                        Jameson Taillon
4     ATL   2022     1                         Charlie Morton
5     COL   2022     1                         German Marquez
6     CHW   2022     1                             Lance Lynn
7     BAL   2022     1                           Jordan Lyles
8     OAK   2022     1                             Cole Irvin
9     HOU   2022     1                           Jose Urquidy
10    TEX   2022     1                               Jon Gray
11    ARI   2022     1                            Zach Davies
12    NYM   2022     1                        Carlos Carrasco

Provided by Stathead.com: View Stathead Tool Used
Generated 12/30/2022.

The OF was so bad last year that projecting this year's OF to be better is almost meaningless. It's still not going to be good enough. An OF of Yoshida Hernandez Verdugo hits what? 45 HRs, tops? Not good enough.


I'd even take the under on that (45), after looking at BBRef. Hernandez averages 17 over 162 games. He won't play 162 games. Verdugo averages 14 over 162 games. He won't play 162 games. Yoshida isn't a power hitter. As it stands, they'll small ball their way to 5th place.

Yoshida and Casas have to be very good for this lineup to be any good. If Sale is healthy for most of the year, and if at least two of the young starters pan out this year, then the pitching will be excellent, and even an average offense would be good enough for this to be a playoff team.

But:
1) That is an awful lot of "ifs" - it reminds me of the typical Peter Gammons "Diamond Notes" item from the late '80s. If management is building a team based on hitting the jackpot on Sale/Whitlock/Bello/Houck/Casas/Yoshida being healthy and effective as the basis for spending 2/$32m on a closer, then this team really doesn't know what it is doing.

2) Verdugo. I don't get why many people think he is better than what he is - a slightly-above-average hitter who is a below average baserunner and defender. One of his closest career comps on BB-Reference is Coco Crisp, which is funny, given that the Sox also acquired Crisp in a trade back in the mid-2000s. Verdugo is a little better hitter than Crisp was at the same age...but Crisp was an excellent defensive center fielder and base stealer. 2007 Coco Crisp was a more valuable player than 2022 Alex Verdugo. This is the problem with Verdugo - if he doesn't hit, he has little value...and he has been in decline as a hitter in each of his three years in Boston. We don't have anything better to replace him, so we should obviously keep him and hope that he at least flattens out, rather than continue to decline. I'd be amazed if Verdugo/Hernandez/Yoshida combined for 40 HRs this year.

3) This is the most disengaged I've seen the Red Sox fan base entering a season since at before the Pedro Martinez trade after the 1997 season, and maybe since the 1994 strike season. Management wildly misunderstood the affection the fan base had for Bogaerts; the lingering PTSD of the Mookie trade; and the lack of capital for management for the four championships. The Celtics own New England right now, and while the NHL doesn't command the same broad, game-to-game appeal of the other major sports, the Bruins are easily the best team in the NHL. When the Bruins are competing at a high level in the playoffs, the intensity locally is hard to match - I am very excited for the Bruins and Celtics this spring. Now imagine the Red Sox, particularly if they do not start out hot, competing against the top-seeded Celtics (NBA playoffs start April 15th) and the top-seeded Bruins (playoffs start April 17th), both potentially going well into June this year. If management doesn't seem to care about its fans, why should be care about the team right now? I will always be engaged with the team and the sport on an analytical level - it is fun to debate and discuss baseball - but in terms of, you know, actually watching games? Not so much, not right now.

The OF was so bad last year that projecting this year's OF to be better is almost meaningless. It's still not going to be good enough. An OF of Yoshida Hernandez Verdugo hits what? 45 HRs, tops? Not good enough.

Getting better is good though. See, you get better there and in other places as well and you win more games.

Getting better is good though. See, you get better there and in other places as well and you win more games.

There's no guarantee of that, especially when other teams are also improving!


As it stands, they're pinning their hopes on Sale, Kluber, Jansen, Houck Whitlock Bello, the supposed improved bullpen (we'll see) and small ball. Good luck.

BTW, last year the OF combined for 38 HRs, not counting JDM's 16. I'm not sure how many he hit while playing the field. They'll likely be right around that # this year.

Fangraphs says 44 HR for the BOS OF, which was only third worst in baseball, ahead of CLE and DET.

Fangraphs says 44 HR for the BOS OF, which was only third worst in baseball, ahead of CLE and DET.

Boston’s outfield would have been more respectable with Betts & Benintendi, of course, but the 2022 version produced slightly less than 71% of Aaron Judge’s 2022 HRs. Not sure if the over or under would be the better bet for 2023.

Boston’s outfield would have been more respectable with Betts & Benintendi

And Schwarber.

Boston’s outfield would have been more respectable with Betts & Benintendi, of course, but the 2022 version produced slightly less than 71% of Aaron Judge’s 2022 HRs. Not sure if the over or under would be the better bet for 2023.

Another invaluable contribution to a thread about the Red Sox.

not counting JDM's 61. I'm not sure how many he hit while playing the field.

Zero. JDM did not play the field last year.

Getting better is good though. See, you get better there and in other places as well and you win more games. There's no guarantee of that, especially when other teams are also improving!

Nothing is guaranteed. However, if you don't think the outfield will be much better in 2023, you must not realize how bad it was in 2022. According to BBRef, the three outfield added up to -4.5 WAA. That's an incredible number. ZIPS projects their three starters--Yoshida, Hernandez, and Verdugo--for about 7 WAR in 2023 (so maybe 5 WAA). Backups Refsnyder, Duran, and Rafaela are all also in positive territory. The Fangraphs depth charts come to a similar conclusion, I think, though it's a little hard to tell because Yoshida's not listed yet.

As it stands, they're pinning their hopes on Sale, Kluber, Jansen, Houck Whitlock Bello, the supposed improved bullpen (we'll see) and small ball. Good luck.

What is it about the bullpen that makes you think it's not improved? The rotation is a big fat question mark but I don't feel any worse about it than I did about last year's rotation.

And what's wrong with "small ball" if it involves getting on base and hitting for high average, rather than relying more on HRs? As long as they're producing, what's the problem?

Some other interesting numbers from this page:

Position, 2022 WAA total (MLB rank)

C -0.4 (t14)
1B -2.3 (t25)
2B -0.1 (t16)
3B +1.8 (7)
SS +3.0 (4)
LF -1.7 (t25)
CF -1.4 (t26)
RF -1.4 (t23)
DH -1.2 (20)

All OF combined -4.5 (28)
Total Non-P -4.5 (19)

SP 1.3 (15)
RP -3.1 (25)
All P -1.9 (18)

Total -6.4 (21)

The obvious weak spots from last year are the entire OF, 1B, DH, and RP. They also lost multiple SP and their SS. So those were the holes. Besides SS (the biggest loss), I think they've filled all of these reasonably.

Here's about what I'd expect in 2023:

C 0
1B +0.5
2B +0.5
3B +1.5
SS ???
LF +1
CF +0.2
RF 0
DH -0.3

All OF combined +1.2
Total Non-P +3.4 (+ or - SS)

SP +0.5
RP +1.5
All P +2

Total +5.4 (+ or - SS)

Very quick and dirty, and admittedly very unsure on the rotation and SS.

I ask this every year and never get an answer: What were the projections for 2022, and the actual results?

What is it about the bullpen that makes you think it's not improved?

Relievers aren't reliable, over time. Especially without a good starting rotation. I said this last year and was told that the Red Sox were no different than any other team, in terms of bullpen usage. And then the Red Sox bullpen imploded, as I predict it will again in 2023 unless they sign some good starting pitchers.

And what's wrong with "small ball" if it involves getting on base and hitting for high average, rather than relying more on HRs? As long as they're producing, what's the problem?

Who's going to produce? LOL here we go again.

I'm not in the mood for this pollyanna bullshit tonight. The Red Sox sucked from day 1 last year. They had one very good month. They sucked the rest of the way. There is nothing to make me believe that 2023 won't be a near repeat of last year.

Happy New Year.

Relievers aren't reliable, over time.

So we just throw up our hands and assume they're all interchangeable? Everyone's unreliable (except me, I'm reliably biased in favor of the Red Sox), and relievers moreso. They still appear to be better.

I ask this every year and never get an answer: What were the projections for 2022, and the actual results?

ZIPS was off by 10 wins last year for the Sox. They had them winning 88 games (gulp). And as I recall, you had them as lousy from the start of the season, even when they had that nice streak in June where they got up to 10 games over .500, Captain Joe stuck to his guns. And you were right. (Humorously enough, the 2021 ZIPS projections had the Sox going 79-83, 13 games shy of their 92 win total.)

Projections aren't always right. And they're sometimes quite wrong. But they're better than guy feeling in most cases. That's why, although mostly defer to them, I was trying not to blindly follow projections above. For example, Steamer has Sale throwing 147 IP and Paxson 135 IP; ZIPS has them at 82 and 126, respectively. Both the Steamer numbers seem way to high and ZIPS seems high for Paxson. So I didn't include those in my prediction above.

The bullpen won't appear to be better, to me, until they show that they are better, but with what the starting rotation looks like right now, I don't think they'll have a chance to be very good. They'll be overworked, again, pitching from behind most games.

Projections are coin flips, it seems. Their best hitters will be Devers, Turner, Casas, Arroyo, Yoshida and Story. Verdugo and Hernandez are minor talents. Catching is a black hole, offensively. Yuck.

Catching is a black hole, offensively. Yuck.

Yeah, I am not buying into the McGuire & Wong combo at C. Plaweki may have sucked pretty badly, but Vazquez was a solid + for the team. I see McGuire as a low floor, low ceiling guy. If he does hit for his projected high 80's OPS+ I will be surprised.

Yes, you missed the Turner signing. He projects to be better than JDM was last year.

If you can’t be optimistic in the off-season when can you, but Turner is 3 years older than Martinez, and BB-Ref projects a .776 OPS for Martinez, with .768 for Turner. Maybe Turner will play more in the field, but he hasn’t had positive defensive WAR since 2019, so that may not really be a plus.

Fangraphs says 44 HR for the BOS OF, which was only third worst in baseball, ahead of CLE and DET.

That is actually 44 HR among all the BOS players who qualified as OF (qualified according to Fangraphs), including their stats while playing other positions. Note the disparate plate appearance totals among teams using that filter.

If you select “OF” in the split drop-down menu instead (or use the Splits Leaderboard page), you will see that actual outfielders across all of Boston’s 2022 lineups had 39 HR. Still 5th worst in MLB, ahead of COL and KCR as well.

@37 nice catch, thanks for the info

I see McGuire as a low floor, low ceiling guy. If he does hit for his projected high 80's OPS+ I will be surprised.

Why would you? 87 OPS+ career, 90 last year. He'll be 28 so no particular reason to worry about age-related decline. I'd be happier with him as a #2 catcher instead of a #1, but average players for minimum salary are not a bad thing.

average players for minimum salary are not a bad thing.

Wasn't he 10% below average last year? They can't afford to go with a bunch of stiffs making the minimum.

Wasn't he 10% below average last year? T

Not for a C. Fangraphs has him at 1.6 WAR in 274 PA.

. . . average players for minimum salary are not a bad thing.

Maybe for roster filler, or helping the owner’s balance sheet, but securing & retaining above-average players is the key to on-field success in MLB.

Maybe for roster filler, or helping the owner’s balance sheet, but securing & retaining above-average players is the key to on-field success in MLB.

I didn't realize that good players are important to success.

Maybe for roster filler, or helping the owner’s balance sheet, but securing & retaining above-average players is the key to on-field success in MLB.

No team is above average everywhere. If you have a couple of 2-win regulars making <$1M, or 1-win Rps making the minimum, that's how you can afford to add above average free agents.

I'm a lot more worried about Wong (and the depth behind him) than I am about McGuire. McGuire looks like a perfectly acceptable, averagish-or-slightly-below starter. Wong has a nice projection but his defense has been questioned in the past and his track record is a bit spotty. I like him and I'm glad they're giving him a shot, but I'm not very confident. Lord help this team if either of these guys get hurt. Ronaldo Hernandez and Stephen Scott are interesting, but there's a lot of variance there as well.

There are always guys with MLB catching experience available in a pinch.

I mean, they can trade a PTBNL for a Sandy Leon, probably.

Why would you? 87 OPS+ career, 90 last year. He'll be 28 so no particular reason to worry about age-related decline. I'd be happier with him as a #2 catcher instead of a #1, but average players for minimum salary are not a bad thing.

Because I think he's going to get exposed as the primary C. As you say - he'd be a perfectly cromulent back up. Vazquez proved he could maintain his hitting over 400-500 PA, and his D is better. If McGuire does slip at the plate, or Wong is as bad as Plaweki was, C will definitely be below average.

Part of what frustrates me about the way the Red Sox are being constructed is that multiple positions in the lineup are being filled as "value" players, acting like they are Tampa or Pittsburgh...but the payroll will be comfortably north of $200 million. Where is all the money going that they have no SS, a below-average catching situation, a rookie at 1B, a below-average outfield, and tremendously uncertainty with the starting pitching? Well, the 2023 salaries include:

Sale 27.5m
Story 20m
Devers ~17m
Jansen 16m
Yoshida 15m
Turner 11m
Hernandez 10m
Kluber 10m
Barnes 7.5m
Martin 7m
Verdugo ~$7m
Pivetta ~$6m
Paxton $4m

That's pretty much everybody projected to make more than about $2m in 2023. Those 13 players will make about $158 million in 2023 playing for the Red Sox. What are they getting for that $158 million?

Four starting pitchers, at least two of whom (Sale and Paxton) are extremely uncertain, in terms of their health; and the other two of whom are (if things go reasonably well) slightly below-average pitchers who could give you 300 innings combined.

A second baseman.
A third baseman.
An outfield (Verdugo, Hernandez, and Yoshida) who don't seem like they'll collectively be much above average.

Three relievers, including a closer.

A DH/3B/1B who is a slightly-above average bat.

No C, no SS, no 1B, pretty crappy outfield, no front-line starting pitcher, included in this $158m.

The only player on this list who is a legit stud is Devers...who increasingly appears to be gone in 2024. Yoshida is the only other player on this list who could reasonably be better two years from now than they are right now.

#48 -

I think what's most notable about that list is that Devers, Casas, and Barnes are the only homegrown talent on the team. I guess you could add Verdugo, Pivetta, and Sale to that list, if you consider they were acquired with people signed by the Sox, but the rest of the team are FA's. The Sox have not been successful locking in their drafted/internatial signed talent into contracts that may be larger (>$20M) but provide so much more value than the handful of $10M-$15M contracts that rely on career years to see a marked value to the team. I think it's a lot easier to fill in the gaps when you have a solid, expensive, base.

I think what's most notable about that list is that Devers, Casas, and Barnes are the only homegrown talent on the team. I guess you could add Verdugo, Pivetta, and Sale to that list, if you consider they were acquired with people signed by the Sox, but the rest of the team are FA's.

None of that should be a surprise, though, right? Baseball America had Boston's farm system ranked 11th last year (both midseason and preseason), 21st before 2021, 22nd before 2020, and 30th before 2019. This is what Dombrowski set up the team to have, and what Bloom is trying to undo.

This is what Dombrowski set up the team to have, and what Bloom is trying to undo.

I'm ok with waiting 4 or 5 years to begin to see a light at the end of the tunnel. This is bleak. It can't get much worse.

None of that should be a surprise, though, right?

I mean, considering they had Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts in their organization rather recently, yeah, it is a surprise. Christian Vazquez would make the team better, Benintendi would be rather helpful (although I was 100% fine with his trade), and Eduardo Rodriguez would slot in nicely. It's almost like Ben Cherington was rather good at scouting young talent. I know it's early, but is there any move Bloom has done that you are impressed with?

Huge Devers extension is possibly imminent, according to the internet.

I know it's early, but is there any move Bloom has done that you are impressed with?

Pretty much everything having to do with Garrett Whitlock. Grabbing him in Rule 5, moving him to the rotation, signing him through 2027. I think he's drafted well, which is partly a function of being in good draft position, but I think they've done pretty well to identify talent in the slots they've had.

11/331 for Devers, starting in 2024

Christian Vazquez would make the team better

I wanted to come back to this. I'm not convinced he would. I like the guy and wish him well, but I think there's a far better chance we just witnessed his last good year than that he's going to maintain at that level. He's at an age where he "should" be losing 5-7 points of OPS+ per year. That his OPS+ went up from 2021 to 2022 is IMO mostly just random variation that went in his favor in 2022. Lose the favorable randomness and ding him for aging another year and he's probably sitting around an 82 OPS+ in 2023. I don't think that's an improvement on McGuire. Even setting that aside, Vazquez signed for 3 years; he's probably averaging 76 OPS+ over that contract, at which point he might not be an improvement on Wong.

Back to your other question that I partly addressed in #54, I'm somewhat impressed by Bloom's dispassionate view on players. Admittedly this is a TON easier to say after the Devers signing. Trading Vazquez is one of those moves I'd have a hard time making in his role, but I think it was the right move to make. I wouldn't have been this disciplined.

Lose the favorable randomness and ding him for aging another year and he's probably sitting around an 82 OPS+ in 2023. I don't think that's an improvement on McGuire.

It most definitely is an improvement on Wong though. Toss out the Kenley Jansen signing, use that $ to give Vazquez his 3 years at $10 per and toss the difference between Vazquez and Jansen to Brad Boxberger. Vazquez is in place for 3 years (and tradeable if McGuire or Wong takes the next step), there's a clear back up C in place, and if Wong develops, great! That to me is a much better plan than signing an over the hill reliever (who's not going to help the team the next time they are in serious contention) and relying an average at best starting C and a completely unproven backup C. Do they have *anybody* in the system if Wong sucks?

The Vazquez trade reminded me a little bit of the Renfroe trade and the Ottavino trade, in one respect.

In the Renfroe-for-JBJ trade, it was a financial loser for the Red Sox, but in exchange for the extra financial obligation, Boston got a pair of offense-first prospects: David Hamilton and Alex Binelas. Binelas has struggled in AA; Hamilton is the best basestealer in the minor leagues, but his defense is average, and it is not clear his bat will survive AAA, much less the bigs. He is 24.

In the Ottavino trade, the Red Sox took on his salary so that they could also "buy" Franklin German, a relief pitching prospect with a chance of making it to the bigs later this year.

In terms of the Vazquez trade, Bloom got a couple of bat-first mid-range prospects from Houston: Enmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu.

All five of the prospects are depth prospects - no blue-chippers, typically bat-first (for the four position players), none of them likely to impact the big league team (German may have the best chance of making the Red Sox). But here is one problem with this approach: four of the five prospects in this post take up spots on the 40-man roster (all but Binelas), even though they aren't on a track to help the Red Sox. I think that is because Bloom feels an obligation to prove these trades weren't failures by holding on to these acquisitions longer than a team hoping to be a playoff contender should.

To me, this sums up Bloom's tenure thus far: A lot of motion, but not necessarily a lot of movement forward. Of SoxProspects.com's Top 20 Red Sox prospects, only one (Enmanuel Valdez, at #17) is the result of an acquisition from another team. Eight of those between #21 and #40 were acquired by Bloom from other organizations - but few if any of those eight will ever play in the big leagues.

At this point, I'd like Bloom to focus less on quantity of players, and more on quality. The Devers extension is truly one of the first signs in this direction in the last three years.

It most definitely is an improvement on Wong though.

In year 1 of his 3-year deal, sure. Over the length of the contract Vazquez would be more like 76 OPS+, which isn't. But he would get paid around $28 million more than Wong.

If I were at the game when Vazquez comes to the plate at Fenway for the first time with the Twins I'd give him a standing ovation.

All five of the prospects are depth prospects - no blue-chippers, typically bat-first (for the four position players), none of them likely to impact the big league team (German may have the best chance of making the Red Sox). But here is one problem with this approach: four of the five prospects in this post take up spots on the 40-man roster (all but Binelas), even though they aren't on a track to help the Red Sox. I think that is because Bloom feels an obligation to prove these trades weren't failures by holding on to these acquisitions longer than a team hoping to be a playoff contender should.

He still needs to make room for Turner and Kluber on the 40-man, so I'm assuming he's planning to trade away some of the people there. Don't read intent into 40-man status at this point in the offseason. There are very few players on the 40-man who in the first week of 2023 would prevent better players being added later.

That aside, I'd guess that the rankings of the prospects added to the 40-man in the last couple of months are better than those of the prospects that have been dropped in that time. Like, in September Jeter Downs had dropped to around 25th in the soxprospects.com prospect rankings; Bazardo was 39th. Rafaela, Walter, Murphy, and Valdez were all top-15 in September. Those seem like reasonable additions, and (relatively speaking) quality.

In year 1 of his 3-year deal, sure. Over the length of the contract Vazquez would be more like 76 OPS+, which isn't. But he would get paid around $28 million more than Wong.

From 2017 to 2020 Mitch Moreland got paid $21M to perform adequately at 1B - 6 WAR total. After the Sox traded him the the Sox have run through Chavis, Dalbec, Shaw, Franchy, Danny Santana, and Schwarber. Results have been less than good, with the only one to perform well, Schwarber, the only one who was making any sort of money. This is my fear for the C position - seemingly since 2010 at least there's been an absolute black hole of suck at one position in the IF for a few years, 3B for a while - the Middlebrooks to Sandoval era was just spectacular - then 2B after Pedroia got hurt, and 1B the last two years.

I know teams cant stock every position with serious $, but the Sox already have allotted low paid positions - namely 1B with Casas (unless Turner takes over there?), SS with someone (or 2B if Story shifts) and for all their averageness Verdugo et al are a relatively cheap OF. Maybe stick a know quantity at C, pay $28M and don't turn it into a ####### joke of a position.

I equate Connor Wong with Blake Swihart - 'rangier' athletic C's that can play another position, so they are sexy, but turns out they don't really have any elite skills to actually contribute. There's at least a 50% chance Vazquez accumulates more WAR in the next three years than Wong does for the rest of his career.

I equate Connor Wong with Blake Swihart

So you agree he’s a future MVP! WOOOOO!

I know teams cant stock every position with serious $, but the Sox already have allotted low paid positions - namely 1B with Casas (unless Turner takes over there?), SS with someone (or 2B if Story shifts) and for all their averageness Verdugo et al are a relatively cheap OF. Maybe stick a know quantity at C, pay $28M and don't turn it into a ####### joke of a position.

Hell, while we're at it let's move Story to SS and let's pay $10m per year for Dustin Pedroia to play 2B. He's a former MVP and a known quantity.

In the time since the first season Vazquez played for Boston, the primary backup catcher (the catcher with the 2nd most PA) has produced roughly a 65 OPS+. In 3 of those seasons that primary backup was Vazquez himself. Kevin Plawecki, Sandy Leon, and maybe Ryan Hanigan were the others. The role Wong is in for 2023 has been a joke, and Vazquez has been part of the punchline. That's fine, because the backup catcher role has simply not mattered enough for anyone to notice how bad it's been. My point is that the quality of the backup catcher is a red herring when we're talking about improving the team. Like, anyone could make a top 10 list of the biggest problems with the roster as it stands right now (assuming you replace 2 people from the current 40-man with Turner and Kluber) and I don't think OMG THE WONG will be on anyone's list. Wong is probably slightly better than what they've had all along, but it doesn't matter.

FWIW the six AL teams that had positive WAA from catcher last year had starting catchers (the ones with the most PA) with no more than one season of 200+ PA entering last year. They were all relatively new to a starting role, and no more a known quantity than Reese McGuire. The nine teams with negative WAA mostly had known quantities as starters: Vazquez, Salvy, Maldonado, Stassi, Sanchez, etc. This isn't predictive or anything; I'm just saying the teams that might have thought they were set at catcher actually weren't.

The role Wong is in for 2023 has been a joke,

Which is exactly why I want them to spend money there! They are spending 3M at C and 16M for a 'closer'. I disagree with that.

They are spending 3M at C and 16M for a 'closer'. I disagree with that.

I'm on board for half of this - although I agree with the broader intent of the statement. I think Reese McGuire as fine for the next year or two as a 100-game-a-year catcher, especially if spotted against favorable matchups, is an inexpensive move for a fine defensive catcher. I am concerned that Wong will be so poor as a hitter that using him even 50-60 games a year will prove unacceptable, but this team isn't going anywhere in 2023, anyway, so let's find out if Wong has any value.

If I understand the broader point, however, it is the odd allocation of over $200 million in 2023. Spending 2/$32m on a 35-year-old closer on this team is like getting your car that needs a new transmission new upholstery, instead.

The team is spending very little money on C, 1B, and potentially 4/5th of the rotation (Pivetta, Paxton, Whitlock, Bello). At the moment, they are not paying any SS (counting Story as a 2B).

They are paying their three top-paid bullpen guys (Jansen, Martin, Barnes) $30.5m in 2023. They are paying their entire starting outfield (Verdugo, Hernandez, Yoshida) $32m. Is this typical? Is this wise?

I predict there will be at least a dozen times this year where Jansen comes into a non-save situation to "get some work", because there will not be enough consistent save opportunities to use him in a "typical" way. Ugh.

Spending 2/$32m on a 35-year-old closer on this team is like getting your car that needs a new transmission new upholstery, instead.

My hypothesis on the bullpen spend - and mind you, I've done none of the legwork to evaluate whether it has any basis in reality - is that bullpen talent is a help if you're having a great season, and if you're not then they are excellent trade chips because contenders always need another reliever and are willing to give up prospects for them.

I'm old enough that air conditioning was still optional equipment on a new car when I first shopped around. The sales guy said that it was worthwhile not just because it's more comfortable but because it would add around $700 to the resale value whenever I decided to sell the car. I did what little research I could do back in those prehistoric days and found $700 was a reasonable estimate for the boost in resale value. And the cost of A/C as optional equipment on a new car? $700. So I pay $700, use the A/C for a time, and then when I discard it someone gives me my $700 back? Sure, why wouldn't I do that? That, in a nutshell, is my hypothesis on paying money for bullpen talent.

(counting Story as a 2B)

I have no inside knowledge but I think we should be counting Story as a SS. I mean, when he signed it was universally acknowledged that we might have acquired Bogaerts' replacement at SS one year early. And it's probably easier to find someone else to fill 2B than SS otherwise (especially in-house). Plus, Story has an opt-out after 2025, at which point Mayer should be ready to take over. It's almost like they planned it that way.

My hypothesis on the bullpen spend - and mind you, I've done none of the legwork to evaluate whether it has any basis in reality - is that bullpen talent is a help if you're having a great season, and if you're not then they are excellent trade chips because contenders always need another reliever and are willing to give up prospects for them.

I like the Martin signing exactly because of this - 2 year, not too expensive deal. He works out great this year but the team sucks? See what you can get for him. But Jansen's contract doesn't really have the opportunity to provide excess value. Kimbrel signed for 1/10 & Chapman is still a FA, why would you want to trade for Jansen's 16M in '24?

ETA:
Barnes should be put in closing spots as well (assuming he's not toast) so he can be showcased and moved for something (the Workman trade was a very nice piece of work). bUt JAnsEn iS tHe CLosER noW.

I'm old enough that air conditioning was still optional equipment on a new car

I'm old enough that it wasn't available at all on new cars, I think. None of the cars we had had AC.