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Monday, December 06, 2021

Red Sox, Astros Interested In Trevor Story

The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros have expressed interest in free agent shortstop Trevor Story, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman in his latest insider piece for Audacy’s “Big Time Baseball” podcast. Heyman reiterates that he’s also heard Seattle convey interest in the shortstop, as MLBTR covered prior to the lockout last week. As is the case with all player-team connections made in the lockout age, no talks can take place between either party until the lockout is lifted.

Interestingly, Boston was recently cited as a team who reached out to free agent shortstop Carlos Correa’s camp. The path to that connection being anything more than due diligence lies in moving All-Star Xander Bogaerts off the position, an option neither the player nor Boston front office have indicated is on the table. The takeaway from a potential Correa pursuit is in many ways identical to a hypothetical Story one— sign an All-Star shortstop to guard against a Bogaerts departure, improving infield defense in the interim.

Just like Boagaerts, Story has yet to give a firm indication that he’ll be anything but a shortstop heading into the 2022 season.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 06, 2021 at 07:49 PM | 7 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, red sox, trevor story

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: December 06, 2021 at 08:46 PM (#6056448)
FWIW, TZ, DRS, Statcast all rate Bogaerts clearly below average (but not Jeter-y); Inside Edge I'm pretty sure comes out the same way -- apparently 2021 was the first time he's ever made a "remote" play; UZR puts him average (but I don't recall where the positional adjustment is made there). Based on those, moving X for Story seems perfectly reasonable.
   2. The Honorable Ardo Posted: December 07, 2021 at 12:13 AM (#6056469)
Walt, a quick question: what qualifies as a "remote" play and how often will a good defensive shortstop have one?
   3. Walt Davis Posted: December 07, 2021 at 06:08 AM (#6056478)
You'd probably better take that up with inside edge (one of the measures at fangraphs). They say "remote" is a play made 1-10% of the time. Per IE, Bogaerts has had 134 remote opps in his career and just made his first this year. They say Story has made 3 in 92 opportunities. Correa is 6 in 89; Ahmed 6 in 85; Javy 4 in 57 at SS. Simmons on the other hand has made 13% of these plays.

It's not a big deal, it's 20 or so balls a year so just missing 1-2 plays a year. It's more an indicator of range, probably means he misses a few extra of the next bucket (10-40%) -- Andrelton 48%; Javy 34%; Xander just 18%.

If you dig deep enough into fangraphs, you can get the seasonal SS split and find out what an average SS does. It's a flaw in IE (or maybe fg's presentation of it) that you have to dig for that stuff.

None of this an endorsement of IE -- I have no idea if it's any better/worse than any of the others. I just found it kinda amazing he had never made such a play.
   4. Darren Posted: December 07, 2021 at 01:56 PM (#6056518)
I thought ESPN and others reported that Bogaerts was willing to move off short?
   5. Darren Posted: December 07, 2021 at 02:01 PM (#6056520)
As for his defense, he looks okay or there but even by the eye test you can see her lacks fine range. In light of this, a move to third would make the most sense, which makes this a question about Devers too. TZ thinks Devers it's pretty bad and OOA agrees. UZR likes him though. Devers makes a lot of throwing errors (I think) and a move to 1b would help. That's a lot of moving!
   6. The Honorable Ardo Posted: December 07, 2021 at 04:16 PM (#6056546)
Thank you very much, Walt!

I agree with the consensus that Xander's SS defense is below average but not completely unplayable.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: December 07, 2021 at 08:39 PM (#6056571)
Didn't comment at the time but those Andrelton IE numbers are just awesome. On those "remote" plays, even the good defensive SS seem to make about 7% of them -- Andrelton a whopping 13%. The 10-40% bucket -- near as I can tell, these buckets tend to be skewed so "10-40%" plays are probably made about 30% of the time on average -- and here comes Andrelton at 48%. I get the feeling that a play that's made 99% of the time, Andrelton manages to make it 104% of the time.

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