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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Thursday, November 17, 2011Red Sox could bring on Omar Minaya to baseball ops staffWell, we know where he learned obp from…ops, I’m not quite sure.
Repoz
Posted: November 17, 2011 at 10:37 AM | 37 comment(s)
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1. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: November 17, 2011 at 11:22 AM (#3995489)Screw the Mets!
Uhm... ok.
This seems like a case of when things are going well, everything looks great, and when things go poorly (e.g., Sept. 2011), everything looks terrible.
From Matsuzaka to Iglesias, it seems like only months ago that Shipley was being lauded for running one of the best int'l departments in baseball. Now all of a sudden, in addition to the major changes with the GM, manager, medical staff, front office, etc., the Sox apparently have decided they need major changes internationally.
I'm not defending the Sox' record internationally. My point is simply that either the media was feeding us a lot of nonsense for the past few years vis-a-vis the Sox being a model franchise or the Sox are overreacting to a bad month.
The problems with the Red Sox international scouting and development don't really have anything to do with Matsuzaka or Iglesias. Those are MLB or close-to-MLB talents that the Sox paid the most money for. The problem the Sox have had is in the traditional international arena, paying $50k and $500k for kids out of Venezuela or the DR and developing them into impact talents. Do you have any evidence of this? If the media was telling you that the Sox were great internationally because of Matsuzaka, the media was feeding you a line you should never have bought in the first place - $100M signings are done by the whole baseball ops department, not by the international division. And I can't remember a single article, anywhere, which talked about the successes of the Red Sox academies in the DR or the Red Sox scouting in Venezuela or elsewhere in Latin America.
I've seen some little notes about the Red Sox being leaders in East Asian scouting, but that's a relatively minor part of the international game. There are many more ballplayers in Latin America, and the Sox have gotten very little out of their LA scouting and development.
I wasn't talking about you. I simply used your comment as a jumping-off point.
I've read plenty of such articles, and I've also seen Shipley's name mentioned in the offseason rumor mill for better jobs elsewhere. Until the last couple of days, I hadn't gotten the impression that Shipley's stock had fallen, which would be the logical result of running a dept. that was seen as underperforming.
The international aspect aside, if there were so many deficiencies in the Sox' operations, why did we not start hearing anything about it until late September? It's not like the Sox have just two beat writers, like the Astros. As people said after the controversial Hohler piece, how or why did all of this stay under wraps for so long? Maybe the tide turned and I missed it, but as of late August, I was under the impression that the Sox were still seen as having a model bb ops dept. Now, one bad month later, few areas of their bb ops have been left untouched. As bad as Sept. was for the Sox, it seems like an odd turn of events.
I don't think there are hardly any "deficiencies" in the Sox' operations. I think that Terry Francona, as players' managers are wont to do, hit his expiration date with the club. He was not a deficient manager previously, but this is what happens to managers. Except that the entire baseball ops team that was working for Theo Epstein is now working for his assistant, Ben Cherington. They're bringing in an advisor to help with one subset of baseball operations which had been underperforming. That seems like the sort of thing a good, competent baseball ops department does.
Theo Epstein left, against the wishes of ownership, replaced by his long-time assistant with everyone in baseball ops taking chained promotions to fill the department. I see no suggestion of "deficiencies" there. If Epstein's baseball operations department was seen as a significant problem, they wouldn't be keeping all of the same people on to run things.
Terry Francona left - as I've said, he was a good manager who hit his expiration date. These things happen. The Sox are looking at mostly Francona clones - players managers who will be solid company men, pretty good with numbers and good with the media.
They've overhauled the medical staff, which has been a subject of major criticism for the last two years. The major cause of the team's underperformance in both 2010 and 2011 was injuries. The team is staying affiliated with MGH, but Gill is out and the structure of the team's medical department will be entirely reconsidered.
They're bringing in Omar Minaya as an advisor, hopefully to oversee international scounting and development, where the club has been weak.
I don't see any major changes to most of baseball operations, I don't see any new "deficiencies" being identified, just existing deficiencies being addressed. I wish they'd gotten to the medical staff thing a year ago, when it would have been equally justified. I wish they'd brought in someone to advise international scouting and development five years ago. I'm sad Theo's gone, but I'm confident his replacements will have similar philosophies, methods, and results.
You have an overhaul of the training and medical staffs, which is obviously were deficiencies in the Sox organization. You have a new advisor coming in to help with international scouting - not necessarily an overhaul, just a new advisor. You have a new manager, which is a pretty normal development after two disappointing seasons, and the candidates all look a lot like new versions of the guy who left.
And that's it. If you make a big deal out of Epstein being replaced by all the people who worked with Epstein, then it looks like a big overhaul. I think that's the wrong reading, and then all you've got is training and medical, and a new advisor in international scouting and development. They aren't doing major offseason upheaval.
All of MC's other (very good) points aside, when Matsuzaka and Iglesias are your successes, you're not doing a very good job.
Sorry, no. I wasn't trolling above — i.e., I wouldn't have said I've read articles if I hadn't. Moreover, I've seen Shipley's name mentioned on a constant basis as a vital member of the Sox staff and as a rumored candidate for better jobs elsewhere, both of which would seem illogical if the consensus is that he's been running a below-average int'l dept.
(Either way, I'm going offline for a while, so perhaps we should agree to disagree.)
I explicitly said in #6 that I wasn't defending the Sox' int'l track record.
When a GM and manager who won two World Series in seven years — the team's first two WS wins since forever — both leave unexpectedly, amid borderline shocking amounts of acrimony and infighting, I count that as major upheaval. But again, we should probably agree to disagree.
I have no doubt there have been articles that discuss Shipley quite positively. But I think that was a result of the Sox success. The team was doing well, winning 90-something games every year, so of course the international scouting guy was great (and so was the manager, the GM, the assistants, the medical staff, etc). If the recent poor showings on the field made the team (and the media) reconsider these assumptions, that's a good thing.
As for MC, he has definitely been talking about the international scouting problem for a long time.
Ha ha. I guess this completes the circle. This was exactly my point in my very first comment above — "This seems like a case of when things are going well, everything looks great, and when things go poorly (e.g., Sept. 2011), everything looks terrible" — a comment with which MCoA apparently disagreed.
What I disagreed with was your claim that the "Sox are overreacting to a bad month" - a claim not about the media, but about the Red Sox organization. As I've laid out repetitively, I think that's a misreading of the changes in the Red Sox organization since October.
EDIT: I think it's both the case that the Sox are a very strong organization and that they needed to fix some problems in the organization, problems which were integral to their disappointing seasons in 2010 and 2011. I don't think either that the praise of the organization was bullshit or that the Sox are overreacting. If someone said the Red Sox were without flaw or without peer, that was bullshit. But you can be very good and have a bad year, and you can be very good but have flaws you want to fix.
The changes on the medical staff have been somewhat expected for a long time now and Theo seems to have left voluntarily.
The best way to find such a discussion is to put "gammons" and "red sox latin american program" in a google search. The most relevant link comes back to this .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)! Theo is mentioned, Minaya is too. Our man Matt has this:
What I disagreed with was the claim that "few areas of their bb ops have been left untouched" and there has been "major offseason upheaval", suggesting major overhauls in the way the club is run. You talk about there being "so many deficiencies" in the Sox organization, and as an alternative that "the Sox are overreacting". There have been changes, so you're not technically wrong, but baseball ops is the same thing it always was, just with Theo's assistant now at the head of the table. There were some deficiencies which are being addressed, in what look to me like reasonable and measured ways.
During Minaya's tenure, the Mets had basically no success in developing Latin American players. The only year they made a significant investment they signed Fernando Martinez and Deolis Guerrera, neither of who has had major league success or is currently regarded as a top prospect. In other years, they signed clear second tier prospects like Francisco Pena, Wilmer Flores, Jefry Marte, Juan Urbina and Cesar Puello. Some of those players have had a modicum of minor league success, but again, none are regarded as top prospects. There have been no lower tier signings who have broken out to be much more than expected, unless Reuben Tejada excites you. Of course, these poor results may be partly due to ownership's unwillingness to invest, but for an executive such as Minaya who has built a reputation on scouting of Latin America, you would expect much better.
My memory is pretty hazy, and I don't really keep close track of the Mets, but as #27 indicated, it's not clear that Minaya had that much success with international player development while with the Mets. Montreal might be a different story, but how much was due to Minaya if he wasn't able to replicate it elsewhere? Still, it probably doesn't hurt Boston to have another prominent name in the front office.
Leaking that tidbit is very meta.
Good. This makes it easier for me to snark somewhere, as i've wanted too all week, that Minaya can take a Red Sox gig. (all week it's been reported he's been apparently offered a gig with TO to scout) I have never cared for him as an exec. Maybe he's un-luddited himself in recent years, and mouths off less in the "I don't talk OBP" speak.
Just google stuff like "Craig Shipley", "Boston Red Sox", "international", then filter out stuff from post-September 2011. e.g.
"Another organization that has put abundant resources into international scouting is the Boston Red Sox, considered by some as the emerging leader in procuring foreign talent." Baltimore Sun, Dec 2009
"18. Craig Shipley: The former utility infielder is the point man on the Red Sox' increasingly aggressive -- and thus far remarkably successful -- forays into Japan." Chadd Finn, ranking Shipley as the 18th most important Red Sock (1 spot behind Bill James) in the Boston Globe, Nov. 2008
Not saying I agree, but the Sox have been talked up on the international front since they signed Dice-K.
Until there's a good-sized article this is as good a synopsis as we're likely to see. My guess is that Minaya gets a pat on the back for his international signings from time to time from people unfamiliar with his work because otherwise you couldn't say anything good at all about the poor man.
As one of a batch of scouts, sure, why not? On second thought, why? What kind of horror would someone have to wreak on a baseball organization that Minaya didn't in order to dq themselves from consideration? Even his good-looking work with bit players at the beginning of his Mets tenure looked more and more flukish as time went on.
Does it work that way for baseball execs, though? As for negotiating a multiyear deal for Minaya, I'm just not seeing the demand or the rationale. You just might want that dollar back.
I can't really comment on Minaya's competence, but the Red Sox also hired Allard Baird, perhaps one of the worst GMs ever, as some sort of consultant. I can't really say if Baird contributed much, but I can't rule out that he's generated baseball anti-knowledge during his time with Boston.
Speaking generally and not re: Minaya specifically, you have to remember: No matter how bad someone in MLB might be at their job, they're still friends with, and likely a source for, a whole lot of reporters. When such people are fired, the reporters often repay the favor by writing mindless paeans about the fired exec's plans to "return to his roots in scouting" and how he "remains a respected evaluator," blah blah blah. It's been going on forever.
Brewers: 0
Cardinals: 0
Diamondbacks: 2 (Montero, Parra)
Phillies: 2 (Ruiz, Bastardo)
Yankees: 3 (Cano, Mo, Nova)
Tigers: 0
Rangers: 0
Rays: 0
Maybe I missed a few players. Obviously, a number of these guys were signed many years ago. Only Parra, Bastardo and Nova were signed after 2002, when Epstein was named GM.
I'm not totally sure what my point is, but I think it's this: we really cannot evaluate the international scouting ability and potential of someone like Minaya (or Epstein or Shipley). It's just not possible. There will never be enough hard evidence. Even if they left more meaningful statistical records, a GM or scouting director is just one dude working at the head of a large organization. We have virtually no ability to interpret how fit these guys are at these specific tasks.
So a quick dismissal like this,
During Minaya's tenure, the Mets had basically no success in developing Latin American players
while undoubtedly true, might not actually be terribly useful in evaluating Minaya as a candidate for this job. First we have to put it in context: how much better are other teams doing? I also wonder how professional scouts evaluate the jobs that they're doing. Teams can go years without graduating legit starters from the minors, and a great scout, at the end of a long career, may only be able to count a handful of really solid players that he's signed. There is a lot of failure in this business, and all the people that are in it every day probably have a better understanding of this. Maybe some of these modestly successful (but ultimately useless) players are something to be proud of. Maybe Timo Perez is a feather in your cap.
GMs are not like baseball players, and the stats on the back of their card do not tell us everything we need to know. If someone like Baird or Minaya is reputed to be an excellent scout, or a good fit with the Sox, we don't have the evidence to disprove it.
Either way, almost 30 percent of MLB players in 2011 were foreign-born. That seems like a suitably large sample size from which to determine which teams (and, to an extent, which scouts and executives) are good and bad at evaluating and signing foreign players. (It might actually be easier to quantify the abilities of international scouts than it is with their draft counterparts, since int'l players are free agents and are specifically targeted by teams and scouts. With the draft, it's tougher to quantify, since the worst scout in baseball could luck into getting Strasburg or Griffey Jr. while the best scout in baseball could be with a team that has no first-round pick that year, etc.)
Without a doubt, the dreaded "human element" is a big factor in the success rate of players — which, thus, affects the success rate of scouts — but it seems like a stretch to suggest the evaluators can't be evaluated. The track records might be less black and white than a B-R page, but over time, scouts develop track records nonetheless.
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