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Friday, January 10, 2020

Red Sox, Mookie Betts avoid arbitration with a 1-year, $27 million deal

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 10, 2020 at 02:03 PM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: c.r.e.a.m., mookie betts, red sox, wu-tang 4ever

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   1. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 10, 2020 at 02:20 PM (#5914596)
wu-tang 4ever

   2. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 10, 2020 at 03:21 PM (#5914632)
Cash Rules Everything Around Me.

C'mon, man.
   3. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: January 10, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5914640)
This is good news. Not that I think it means a damned thing regarding the long term prospects for Mookie but more that it means I won’t have to read/hear/listen to the inevitable “they are going to arbitration they have poisoned the well” takes that would have come had they not settled.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: January 10, 2020 at 03:49 PM (#5914642)
AP headline was "Betts signs record deal" which, while technically correct, was not the $450 million extravaganza the headline suggested.
   5. SoSH U at work Posted: January 10, 2020 at 04:06 PM (#5914653)
Not that I think it means a damned thing regarding the long term prospects for Mookie but more that it means I won’t have to read/hear/listen to the inevitable “they are going to arbitration they have poisoned the well” takes that would have come had they not settled.

Not just that. If the Sox make a reasonable offer, and he leaves for a bigger deal elsewhere, for whatever reason, I'll wish him well. I really didn't want to see them peddle him ahead of time.
   6. AndrewJ Posted: January 10, 2020 at 04:43 PM (#5914668)
You can build a lot of video replay rooms for $27 million...
   7. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 10, 2020 at 06:03 PM (#5914692)
In arbitration news from 2020 AL East contenders:
The Yankees have deals with all of their eligible players. The team announced an arrangement with Aaron Judge, but details aren’t yet available. Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter.
Will be interesting to see what Judge gets. Avoiding arbitration is probably best for all, but I would have liked to see how the arbitrator addressed Judge’s incredible popularity (best selling MLB jersey for 3 years, devoted Yankee Stadium seating section, opening the ballpark early to allow fans to watch his batting practice, etc.).
   8. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 10, 2020 at 06:25 PM (#5914696)
The link in #7 has now been updated to show Judge got $8.5M.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: January 10, 2020 at 08:34 PM (#5914719)
At first glance, $8.5 seemed low for this caliber of player. He's hurt by missed time but it's still 19 WAR over three years and over 5 both of the last two even with missed time. Bryant is probably the closest at $10.9 with 19 WAR and a NVP and no missed time -- but he was also just a super-2 and it was two years ago. I can't decide if that's too harsh a "penalty" for Judge's lost time or not. But then Mookie got $10.5 as a full arb coming off 22 WAR in 3 years and 2 in his debut, also two years ago. Two years ago is a factor but also one extra WAR per year should be worth at least $2 M even in arb. Lindor went to his first arb for 2019 with 3.113 service time and got $10.9 on >19 WAR in 3 years and 24 over 4 -- that would seem to be worth a couple million too. A "downside" comp would be Arenado who got just $5 M as a super-2 on 14 WAR in <3 years back in 2015; he got almost $12 the next year after adding 6.6 WAR -- putting Judge somewhere in between those two numbers seems OK but I probably would have expected higher given the time lag.

Obviously a bargain as essentially all arb salaries are and I think being over-penalized for missed time but within the reasonable range. Also given how flat salaries have been the last few years, the inflation factor is fairly trivial.

This brings me back to the Luis Robert contract though. In year 4 of that deal, Robert is guaranteed $9.5 and will be paid over $20 M total in the first 4 years. In his first 4 years, he'll be $10 M ahead of Judge (in raw dollars). If Judge has two more years like the first 3, then he'll probably make at least $42 and maybe closer to $50 over his last two arb years. That would put Judge at $52-60 while Robert will be at $50 -- barring substantial inflation in salaries, Robert needs to be as good or better than Judge for the White Sox to come out even a little bit ahead on the first 6 years of that contract. And Judge at $52-60 is quite top-end ... we now have Mookie at just under $60 for his pre-FA years.

Now of course if Robert is as good as Judge, the White Sox save a ton of money in years 7 and 8 -- Robert will get another $38 M while Judge might well make that for one season of FA. Even if Robert is "just" a 4-WAR player, they probably make back the money they overpaid (relative to the arb market) for years 1-6. But needing a young player to become a 4-WAR player to break even is a big ask. I still think they should have waited a year or two to see him in the majors.
   10. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: January 10, 2020 at 09:25 PM (#5914724)
Mookie Betts can now afford:

13 LaFerrari Alperts


122,727 Craftsman 140 CC Manual-Push Lawnmowers


167,701 shares of Microsoft


180,000 ferrets


1,038,461 copies of his own rookie card


a 28,421,052 mile Uber ride


8,437,500 gallons of milk


4,090,909 gallons of milk (if purchased in Japan)


88 six-litre bottles of 1947 Cheval-Blanc


19,203 flights from Boston to Tasmania


818,181 cubic yards of mulch
   11. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 10, 2020 at 10:12 PM (#5914730)
Great news. Let's concentrate the best talent in the AL East and not in some time zone that might as well be in Australia. Even as a Yankees and Orioles fan, I love watching Mookie play.

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