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Friday, January 24, 2020

Red Sox, Padres have reportedly discussed Mookie Betts trade that includes a surprising name

Tonight, on As The Mookie Turns:

Coming into the offseason, the Boston Red Sox were expected to make a blockbuster trade in order to get underneath the luxury tax. With two months remaining until Opening Day, the most obvious trade candidates—outfielders Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr., and left-handed starter David Price—all remain in town. It’s anyone’s guess as to how much longer that stays true, as the Red Sox continue to monitor the market and explore potential deals.

For evidence of that, consider how the Red Sox and San Diego Padres recently engaged on talks centered around Betts, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic. Lin notes that while a deal has been characterized as unlikely, the talks have included a “significant amount of prospect talent” heading to Boston, as well as outfielder Wil Myers, who would serve as salary ballast.

Betts, 27, recently agreed to terms on a one-year pact worth $27 million for what will be his final season of team control. He’s expected to earn even more through free agency, as he’s hit .299/.389/.535 (141 OPS+) over the last three seasons while playing high-grade defense in right field. Betts has so far resisted the Red Sox’s attempts at signing him to a long-term extension, preferring instead to test the market at year’s end and receive a contract fitting of his true value.

As always, my apologies for not linking to an item behind a pay wall.

 

QLE Posted: January 24, 2020 at 12:43 AM | 80 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mookie betts, padres, red sox, trade rumors

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   1. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 24, 2020 at 12:47 PM (#5919036)
Update:
Talks between San Diego and Boston regarding Betts are “ongoing,” Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. The Padres have proposed scenarios that would send Myers, controllable MLB assets and prospects to the Red Sox, though like Acee, he suggests the Padres’ very best prospects haven’t been included in talks. Speier adds that the Padres have been willing to “clear the bar” that was set by last year’s Paul Goldschmidt trade between Arizona and St. Louis, wherein the Cardinals sent catcher Carson Kelly, righty Luke Weaver, infield prospect Andy Young and a Competitive Balance draft pick to Arizona.
   2. Sweatpants Posted: January 24, 2020 at 01:01 PM (#5919046)
Wil Myers, who would serve as salary ballast
Yikes. Remember the Wil Myers arguments on here? He's still only 29 years old.
   3. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 24, 2020 at 01:03 PM (#5919047)
Seems like it would be pretty dumb for the Padres to back up the truck for one year of Mookie.
   4. Nasty Nate Posted: January 24, 2020 at 01:07 PM (#5919051)
Yikes. Remember the Wil Myers arguments on here? He's still only 29 years old.
He's already been in 2 much-discussed ramification-filled trades. If he's part of a Mookie trade, that would make 3.
   5. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 24, 2020 at 01:12 PM (#5919053)
Seems like it would be pretty dumb for the Padres to back up the truck for one year of Mookie.


If it keeps Preller from getting fired, it's probably worth it to Preller.
   6. Dock Ellis Posted: January 24, 2020 at 01:14 PM (#5919055)
I've said this before in other Red Sox threads but the Wil Myers contract is relatively unusual in that because his arb years were bought out and he's made a modest salary in 2017-19, his AAV is considerably lower than his salary for 2020-22.

He'll get paid $22.5M per year the next three seasons, but only $13,833,333 will apply to the luxury cap.
   7. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: January 24, 2020 at 02:33 PM (#5919094)
The prospects reportedly being discussed in the trade aren’t any of San Diego’s “top five minor leaguers,” which would mean the likes of Gore or Patino aren’t involved.


So, for a season (and first bargaining chance) of the second best player in baseball, who will be 28 when he hits free agency, the Red Sox are going to take on an additional 40m of payroll (but not luxury tax payroll!) for three years of a dude who was sub replacement level in the last season, maybe one dude in the top 100 overall prospects, and a handful of lotto tickets.

Thanks, I hate it.
   8. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: January 24, 2020 at 02:41 PM (#5919096)
I've said this before in other Red Sox threads but the Wil Myers contract is relatively unusual in that because his arb years were bought out and he's made a modest salary in 2017-19, his AAV is considerably lower than his salary for 2020-22.

He'll get paid $22.5M per year the next three seasons, but only $13,833,333 will apply to the luxury cap.
This is really interesting. It could create a situation in which the Padres would trade Myers for someone make $18 million/year, and both teams would save money on the deal. Almost an NBA-style cap space trade.
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 24, 2020 at 02:50 PM (#5919098)
So, for a season (and first bargaining chance) of the second best player in baseball, who will be 28 when he hits free agency, the Red Sox are going to take on an additional 40m of payroll (but not luxury tax payroll!) for three years of a dude who was sub replacement level in the last season, maybe one dude in the top 100 overall prospects, and a handful of lotto tickets.

Seems mindbogglingly stupid.
   10. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: January 24, 2020 at 03:02 PM (#5919101)
Presumably David Price would head to SD in that deal too. That sweetens the pot by ~$30m. And the quotation in 1 says that "controllable MLB talent" is included, citing Luke Weaver as comparable. Who on SD would be comparable to Weaver? Margot maybe? Lucchesi?
   11. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 24, 2020 at 03:06 PM (#5919104)
Who on SD would be comparable to Weaver? Margot maybe? Lucchesi?


Or Grisham, Hedges, or Naylor?
   12. Walt Davis Posted: January 24, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5919153)
Seems like it would be pretty dumb for the Padres to back up the truck for one year of Mookie.

Have you met AJ Preller?

the Cardinals sent catcher Carson Kelly, righty Luke Weaver, infield prospect Andy Young and a Competitive Balance draft pick to Arizona.

That's a pretty high bar and a foolish one for the Pads unless they can get Mookie to extend beforehand. Carson Kelly already looks very good (112 OPS+, 1.9 WAR in 365 PA as a C) and Weaver struck out 69 in 64 innings. Mookie would almost certainly top Goldschmidt's 2.8 WAR from last year but that was a bad trade for the Cards. But I have seen Preller's work and nothing would surprise me.

   13. DCA Posted: January 24, 2020 at 05:36 PM (#5919159)
To SD: Betts, Price

To Bos: Myers, Cal Quantrill, Franchy Cordero, Esteban Quiroz, Josh Naylor, Luis Torrens

For a year of Betts, and taking on Myers, the Red Sox get:

Price's salary off the books
6 years of Quantrill (mid-rotation starter to replace Price)
6 years of Cordero (takes over CF in 2021)
6 years of Quiroz (starting 2B in 2020)
6 years of Naylor (starting 1B in 2020)
6 years of Torrens (at least a backup catcher, starting 2021)

All those guys are totally blocked in SD.
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 24, 2020 at 05:41 PM (#5919160)
For a year of Betts, and taking on Myers, the Red Sox get:

Price's salary off the books
6 years of Quantrill (mid-rotation starter to replace Price)
6 years of Cordero (takes over CF in 2021)
6 years of Quiroz (starting 2B in 2020)
6 years of Naylor (starting 1B in 2020)
6 years of Torrens (at least a backup catcher, starting 2021)

All those guys are totally blocked in SD.


WTF would SD give up four players of starting calibre, and take on a #### load of bad salary, for one year of Betts? Who cares if the guys are blocked. This is not the only trade SD is allowed to make over the next two years.
   15. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 24, 2020 at 06:15 PM (#5919162)
Yeah, that would be absolute madness for the Padres.
   16. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 24, 2020 at 06:31 PM (#5919166)
Presumably David Price would head to SD in that deal too
Neither TFA nor the one linked in #1 include Price in this deal. This seems like a fallback trade after attempts to move Price by linking him to Betts failed.
   17. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: January 24, 2020 at 07:41 PM (#5919174)
Uh, you realize that every single player named by DCA is pretty shitty or likely to be pretty shitty, right? Like, calling these guys "starting calibre" is only true if you're planning on seeing how many games you can lose in a season. Every single one of them is expected to be well below average next year.

Myers
- Going to be 30. Was sub-replacement level last year. ZIPS projects a .240/.318/.440 season from him, for an OPS+ of 102. This would be a major bounceback given his 2019.

Quantrill - 27th ranked prospect in the Padres farm system per Fangraphs. Going to be 25. Calling him a mid-rotation replacement for David Price is... optimistic. ZIPs thinks he'll have an 83 ERA+ next year. ZIPS is higher on Quantrill than other projection systems.

Quiroz - 29th ranked prospect in the Padres farm system. Going to be 28 in 2020, hit decently in the PCL, and was traded to the Padres FROM the Red Sox before 2019. His ZIPS projections are .234/.323/.378 (a projected OPS+ of 89) and this is very likely good as he's going to get.

Cordero - 17th best prospect in the Padres farm system. Entering his age 25 season, missed almost the entire last two years to injury. Was something of a prospect before that, ZIPS projects him at .221/.285/.421, or an 87 OPS+. If he stays healthy he could become a useful player on a good team, like a poor man's JBJ.

Naylor - 11th best prospect in the Padres farm system. Young, was not awful as a rookie. Former 99th ranked BA prospect pre-2019. Probably the best player in the group. ZIPs projects .258/.329/.417 (100 OPS+) as a 23 year old 1B. He could turn out to be a good player, is probably not a starting caliber 1B right now.

Torrens - ZIPS projects .236/.295/.361, or a 76 OPS+. That would be a significant improvement over his career 26 OPS+. Also, he's already got over a year of service time. Not even listed in the Padres prospect reports.

So you've got one C+/B- prospect in Naylor, and then replacement or below replacement players. Meanwhile, Betts and Price could very easily be worth 12 WAR combined next year... a total I might take the under on for all six years of those dudes + Myers.

Did you guys just see a bunch of names and think "oh, prospects, what a fool idea to trade prospects for one year of a perennial MVP candidate and a 3-4 WAR starting pitcher!"
   18. Walt Davis Posted: January 24, 2020 at 07:51 PM (#5919175)
By the way, is Myers supposed to be the "surprising name", I wasn't clear.

All those guys are totally blocked in SD.

The Padres only won 70 games. 70-win teams, even ones stocked with emerging young talent, are rarely blocking anybody much less 5 players. Naylor is blocked by Hosmer's money if he continues to stink in the OF. Torrens is "kinda blocked" if Mejia turns out good. Quiroz is blocked if Ty France can successfully transition to 2B (Profar is FA at the end of the year even if he doesn't stink). Cordero would be blocked for a year then, when Betts leaves, he's at worst 4th OF and that only if Grisham sticks ... then Pham leaves. And the notion that any pitcher is blocked given current usage is kinda quaint but Quantril had the 4th most starts on the Pads last year anyway.

Margot going the other way makes some sense. Just 3 years of control left, he gets pushed to the bench by Betts (assuming Grisham gets the nod, ZiPS rather likes him), and he's already making $2.5 M which is nothing as a starter but is a bit much for a team like the Pads to pay for 4th OF (esp with Cordero around). Now if the Red Sox really are eating money in the deal, then they can get an extra prospect.

EDIT: Seeing #17, I did have Quiroz confused with somebody else. Yeah, at 28, nothing to worry about.
   19. PreservedFish Posted: January 24, 2020 at 08:35 PM (#5919179)
#18 stole my comment. I'm tickled by the idea that the Padres have 6 players that are totally blocked but would be able to waltz into important positions with the Red Sox.
   20. Dock Ellis Posted: January 24, 2020 at 09:02 PM (#5919184)
The Padres have 6 of Baseball America's top 100 prospects, plus three more who just missed the list, and none of them are listed in #13.
   21. Dock Ellis Posted: January 24, 2020 at 09:09 PM (#5919187)
god what a shitty fcking time to be a Red Sox fan. I really really don't want to be entertaining hypotheticals of what Mookie would fetch in a trade for uninspiring stupid Padres prospects to distract myself from the big fat very ominous dark cloud that is hanging over this team.
   22. Dock Ellis Posted: January 24, 2020 at 09:13 PM (#5919188)
Pedro shared this clip of David Ortiz the Twin absolutely destroying a pitch from peak vintage Pedro and it brought me so much joy and then I got sad because fucck this team rn
   23. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 24, 2020 at 09:28 PM (#5919191)
At the moment the entire team (sans manager) is returning for this season and if Sale and Price can be healthy-ish there is no reason this team won’t be very good. For all the chatter about saving money or trading Mookie is there any indication that either is happening? There is not.
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 24, 2020 at 09:39 PM (#5919193)
Uh, you realize that every single player named by DCA is pretty shitty or likely to be pretty shitty, right? Like, calling these guys "starting calibre" is only true if you're planning on seeing how many games you can lose in a season. Every single one of them is expected to be well below average next year.

Giving up anything for Betts and Price, and Price's full contract is a bad trade. $126M for one year of Betts and whatever Price has left has huge negative value.

   25. DCA Posted: January 24, 2020 at 09:40 PM (#5919194)
I'm tickled by the idea that the Padres have 6 players that are totally blocked but would be able to waltz into important positions with the Red Sox.

That's what happens when the Red Sox run up a huge payroll, spending money and prospects recklessly but more or less successfully, and then in a quick about-face into austerity decide to ignore emerging roster holes at SP, 1B, and 2B, and appear poised to do the same with impending openings in CF and at C, because they are not getting under the cap this year.
   26. DCA Posted: January 24, 2020 at 09:42 PM (#5919195)
$126M for one year of Betts and whatever Price has left has huge negative value.

But not as much negative value as Myers, which, along with Preller's desperation, is how you can also get a pupu platter of second tier prospects.
   27. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 24, 2020 at 09:48 PM (#5919196)
But not as much negative value as Myers, which, along with Preller's desperation, is how you can also get a pupu platter of second tier prospects.

Not sure that's true. We're not even sure Price can pitch this year.
   28. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: January 24, 2020 at 11:17 PM (#5919210)
David Ortiz ∈ Twins is pretty weird. Especially since the swing and the celebration are exactly the same.
   29. Jack Sommers Posted: January 25, 2020 at 12:31 AM (#5919213)
Padres 109 ERA- last year

From 2015-2019 they have team 111 ERA-, tied with Detroit for 2nd worst in baseball these last 5 years

They just dont get it
   30. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 25, 2020 at 01:01 AM (#5919215)
Now I am one fan who is more than happy to give ownership and the multiple FO personnel a huge pass on many things after 4 titles since 2004.

However, everyday chatter about dumping your best player for magic beans, in combination with the possibility of going into spring training without a manager, has me totally dismayed.

This is a club with nearly infinite financial resources, it's a club I'm sure, like NY, LA, Cubs and St. Louis, that a lot players would actually want to play for so I'm finding this offseason just puzzling and trying to sort out WTF they are doing?

The owner has billions, the FO is filled with really smart people, but all of this is like they've put the work experience kid in charge and just said, hey intern guy, you make all the decisions because we don't really give a sh*t how it looks to the public.

The whole thing is just weird. You'd never see the Dodgers or St Louis running around like chooks with their heads cut off.
   31. Darren Posted: January 25, 2020 at 10:33 AM (#5919237)
Most important question: chooks?

Next, the Red Sox haven't actually done anything with Mookie. It's all talk at this point. I feel fairly confident that if they deal him, it's because they're pretty sure he's not willing to sign long term for anywhere near a reasonable rate in Boston.

This is a club with nearly infinite financial resources, it's a club I'm sure, like NY, LA, Cubs and St. Louis, that a lot players would actually want to play for so I'm finding this offseason just puzzling and trying to sort out WTF they are doing?


All of these teams have made moves to stay or get under the cap at times. The Red Sox are no different.

Chooks?
   32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 25, 2020 at 11:38 AM (#5919240)
Next, the Red Sox haven't actually done anything with Mookie. It's all talk at this point. I feel fairly confident that if they deal him, it's because they're pretty sure he's not willing to sign long term for anywhere near a reasonable rate in Boston.

They still shouldn't trade him; even if there's a 0% probability of resigning him. They're contenders. They have a good team. They should try to win in 2020.

All of these teams have made moves to stay or get under the cap at times. The Red Sox are no different.

The Yankees, Dodgers, and Cards have never publicly toyed with the idea of trading one of the best 10 players in the game to get under the cap.

The Cubs are engaging in similar "chookiness" this off-season with Bryant, and getting killed for it, too.

   33. mathesond Posted: January 25, 2020 at 12:55 PM (#5919253)
Chooks?


That takes me back 25 years, when I was living in Whistler and cooking with a few Aussies. It refers to chickens, if I recall correctly.
   34. Adam Starblind Posted: January 25, 2020 at 01:09 PM (#5919255)

David Ortiz ∈ Twins is pretty weird. Especially since the swing and the celebration are exactly the same.


Didn't look like there was a bat flip though. One of the great things about Ortiz was that he could flip his bat however he wanted because he wasn't somebody you wanted to get in a fight with.
   35. Adam Starblind Posted: January 25, 2020 at 01:11 PM (#5919256)

That takes me back 25 years, when I was living in Whistler and cooking with a few Aussies. It refers to chickens, if I recall correctly.


Correct, it's Aussie for chicken. In college I knew a girl that Aussies called that for some reason.
   36. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 25, 2020 at 01:26 PM (#5919259)
I feel fairly confident that if they deal him, it's because they're pretty sure he's not willing to sign long term for anywhere near a reasonable rate in Boston.
What would a ‘reasonable rate’ be for Mookie Betts at this point, $350M/10 years? More?
   37. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 25, 2020 at 02:06 PM (#5919262)
I think 350/10 is fairly reasonable, maybe go 400/12 or something to get the gross number up and save a bit on the average. I’ve felt all along that in some ways the Machado/Harper/Trout deals make Mookie an easier signing. The framework is there (somnewhere in the middle of all of those). At that point you just decide if you are willing to lay that out or not.
   38. Dock Ellis Posted: January 25, 2020 at 03:05 PM (#5919265)
The Yankees definitely dgaf about being under the cap. 2018 was the first time they were under in 15(!) years. They were above last year and they will be above this year.
   39. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 25, 2020 at 03:37 PM (#5919266)
I think the position of most teams affected by the cap, including the Yankees, has evolved as the tax rates increased and the draft pick penalties kicked in. There now seems to be something of a consensus the costs of being permanently above the highest threshold are just too great, and you have to avoid the highest level fairly regularly, while dipping below even the lowest tax threshold often enough to re-set the tax rate a couple times a decade. IMHO, it’s a mistake for MLB to have gone to a system that deters extending a home-grown potential Hall of Fame player. The Red Sox have plenty of money, they can afford Mookie, and might be willing to pay him if not for the tax & draft penalties that are caused by what now looks like bad contracts for other players. MLB should consider some version of the NBA’s ‘Larry Bird Rule’, which allows teams to exceed the salary cap when re-signing their own players. That’s not perfect, since it’s another arbitrary rule helping just some players to receive fair market value, but it’d be better than what we have now. Of course, it’s quite possible, perhaps even likely, that the owners, including those in Boston, are actually quite happy with a system that allows them to avoid the risks that come with taking on a $350M commitment for a single player.
   40. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 25, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5919268)
Yes, a chook is a chicken.

I think Darren's point is valid. Maybe he's given some indication that he is keen to move on and play somewhere else but does not want to go down the Arenado 'they are disrespecting me" path and trying to keep it all civil.

I think they should keep the team together for 2020, see how it all plays out, then offer him something like 11/380 and if he doesn't bite, then so be it.

   41. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 25, 2020 at 04:58 PM (#5919272)
I think they should keep the team together for 2020, see how it all plays out, then offer him something like 11/380 and if he doesn't bite, then so be it.


This is how I feel. If they go for it this year then at the end of the year he signs elsewhere for stupid money, so be it. But don't give up on the season, you put together a team like this so that you have seasons like 2020 where you have a chance.
   42. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 25, 2020 at 05:11 PM (#5919273)

I think they should keep the team together for 2020, see how it all plays out, then offer him something like 11/380 and if he doesn't bite, then so be it.


Seems utterly logical.
   43. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 25, 2020 at 05:30 PM (#5919274)
I think they should keep the team together for 2020, see how it all plays out, then offer him something like 11/380 and if he doesn't bite, then so be it.
Seems like there would be a better chance of such an offer being accepted if it was made NOW. Perhaps after the 2018 season would have been even better, but that’s water under the bridge now.
   44. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 25, 2020 at 07:34 PM (#5919280)
Yeah I don’t know how these things work. I’ve never negotiated for $380 million. I suspect there is an element of wanting to wait it out a bit on both sides, the Sox don’t want to start the negotiations at 11/380 because that allows Mookie to counter with 13/450 and try to meet in the middle.

Likewise Mookie probably doesn’t want to just say 11/380 because if the Sox say “OK” then he might feel like he’s left something on the table.
   45. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 25, 2020 at 07:37 PM (#5919281)
Snapper - The problem is that so many people have bought into this “don’t let him go for nothing” idea that I just find so ridiculous. Some of it is the cult of the prospect, the Sox don’t need to rebuild their farm system, if they keep the players they have there is no reason they can’t be very good for many years to come. The core of that lineup is sensational.

The other part of it is people think Mookie walking away for just a drat pick gets you nothing in return but ignores the current season. There is actual value to this year coming up (as there is all seasons).

This is particularly true with the CBA expiring after 2021. I’m not convinced we aren’t getting a year off and part of my thinking on not getting too worried about the luxury tax is I suspect the players are going to make that go away or at least make the penalties be significantly decreased.
   46. Walt Davis Posted: January 25, 2020 at 07:57 PM (#5919286)
Yeah, I got a bit suckered by #13. I don't follow prospects too closely and (a) I recalled Quantrill was a 1st round pick and had made prospect lists and I just assumed he had continued to progress; (b) I'd heard of Naylor, also a 1st round pick, and for me to have heard of a prospect generally means they've had some buzz; (c) I recalled Cordero looking like solid 4th OF guy, maybe borderline CF which he had looked like in 2018 but didn't realize he'd been hurt for almost all of 2019; (d) like I mentioned, I had Quiroz confused with somebody else although I'm not sure who (not Urias since I knew he'd been traded); (e) Torrens I knew nothing about and was mostly ignoring.

Now I'll still say that those first 3 guys look like usable players to me and I'll be surprised if they aren't ranked a good bit lower than they should be on the Padres' prospect lists. ZiPS still has Cordero as 4th OF and Quantrill would seem to be in the mix of a bunch of AAAA types for 5th starter (unless Price was acquired) but Naylor is the only one here with a genuine shot at being genuinely good and he is probably blocked (esp if Myers is still around) until they are willing to cut bait on Hosmer. So the long list in #13 is more like one of those trades with the (old?) OOTP AI where you just keep piling on fungible guys until it surrenders. It might still be worth it to the Sox to get out from under Price but who knows.

On possible Mookie price -- Trout kinda messed it up for everybdy. With signing bonus, he made $36 last year, $36 this year then $35.5 for the 10 years after that. Rendon just got $35 AAV and there's no room between Rendon and Trout for the #2 player in the game. Obviously somebody will top Trout's AAV in the next few years and it might be Mookie this year but it's hard to see anybody getting to $40 soon. Mookie will be turning 28 as he enters FA so it's hard to see more than 10/$360 (or its NPV equivalent) for him. If the Red Sox or his new team make him an extension offer along those lines, I'd recommend he take it as it's hard to see him adding more than maybe $10 M even if some team is willing to beat that. (Assuming he doesn't despise Boston to the point of being willing to walk away from $30 M or so to get out.)

On the Cubs and Bryant -- I think fans are mainly upset that the Cubs have done almost literally nothing this offseason than they are that Bryant has been dangled as trade bait. Note that followed doing pretty much nothing the offseason before. Lester is a year older, Cishek is gone (for a measly 1/$6), there's no strong rumors Castellanos will be back, leaving an OF of Schwarber, Almora, Heyward and Happ, still no 2B other than Bote/Descalso/Happ, no 5th starter other than Chatwood/Alzolay/Mills. As to Bryant, between the injury-riddled 2018 and a nice but not star-level 2019, we're not sure he's even among the top 20 position players anymore much less in the top 10. Hopefully it's just a blip along the way (Rendon had a couple of seasons like those among his 6-WAR gems) but I think we'd be content if the Cubs flipped Bryant for multiple real, young solutions in problem areas. (Tricky bit finding a trade partner will to do that.)

At this point it's not clear a team will get more than 7-8 WAR out of Bryant at a cost of $40-42 M over the next two years. Even setting aside the alternatives teams had/have in Rendon, Donaldson and Arenado (and assuming the grievance is decided in the team's favor), how many future wins are you willing to trade for that?
   47. Darren Posted: January 25, 2020 at 10:22 PM (#5919303)
I read on SOSH that the most recent offer to Mookie (per Bradford) was something like 10/$320 before the 2019 season, FWIW.
   48. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 25, 2020 at 11:17 PM (#5919308)
That seems like a reasonable starting point that can get the Sox where they need to be. I’d feel good if that was the offer. I wouldn’t blame Mookie for turning it down but that’s not the Jon Lester situation revisited.
   49. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 26, 2020 at 11:40 PM (#5919470)
The Dodgers & Diamondbacks are now said to be in on Mookie, with LA supposedly considering taking on David Price, too. You’d have to have some confidence in the medical review to actually do that. Might want Price to throw a few Spring Training innings before taking the plunge.
   50. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 27, 2020 at 01:38 PM (#5919626)
Fleshing out the details on the Padres proposal:
Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune updates the situation from the Padres’ perspective, covering quite a few notable details on the discussions. The Friars are said to be trying to structure a deal around a pair of young MLB-level players: one outfielder (Manuel Margot or Josh Naylor) and one pitcher (Cal Quantrill or Joey Lucchesi).

Supposing that aspect of the prospective arrangement meets with the desires of the Boston front office, there’s still the matter of sorting out the money. As has been reported previously, the Friars wish to offload as much as possible of the Wil Myers contract, in no small part due to the fact that Betts is set to play for $27MM in 2020. But the sides are currently deadlocked on the dollars, with the Sox “offering to assume about half” of the $61MM still owed Myers and the Pads wishing “to eat only about a quarter.”
In their best seasons, the 4 Lucchesi mob members mentioned above put up less than half the WAR that Betts contributed in either of his two best seasons, and Boston is reportedly only being offered their choice on half of those guys. Seems to be all about the money, and, if the reporting is anywhere close to accurate, it doesn’t sound like that much money, since even the Padres are in play.
   51. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 27, 2020 at 02:32 PM (#5919656)
The Padres acquiring Betts is something multiple people in the organization continued over the past couple days to predict as only marginally possible.


From the article linked by Clapper. If the proposed trade is one the Sox are willing to do (I'm not buying that) I think the Padres would not give a flying #### about the money on Myers and get it done.
   52. Dock Ellis Posted: January 27, 2020 at 03:05 PM (#5919674)
welp the Diamondbacks just nabbed Starling Marte so there goes their need for a CF
   53. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 27, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5919684)
welp the Diamondbacks just nabbed Starling Marte so there goes their need for a CF

Didn't they already have to good Marte in CF?
   54. Dock Ellis Posted: January 27, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5919690)
two good Martes are better than one
   55. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 28, 2020 at 06:02 PM (#5920056)
Getting ‘more serious’?
Jon Heyman

@JonHeyman
Sense is that Red Sox seem more serious than ever about a Mookie Betts deal, and rivals are starting to think a trade may happen. Dodgers and Padres are teams most often publicly linked though no sense yet who may be most likely.

1,191
4:16 PM - Jan 28, 2020
   56. bfan Posted: January 28, 2020 at 06:25 PM (#5920062)
The Dodgers & Diamondbacks are now said to be in on Mookie, with LA supposedly considering taking on David Price, too. You’d have to have some confidence in the medical review to actually do that. Might want Price to throw a few Spring Training innings before taking the plunge.


The deal may be done by then. Sometimes you just have to take the plunge. It is Mookie F***ing Betts were talking about here.
   57. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 28, 2020 at 06:35 PM (#5920063)
I read on SOSH that the most recent offer to Mookie (per Bradford) was something like 10/$320 before the 2019 season, FWIW.


Merloni is saying 10/300 was the offer with Mookie countering at 12/420. Honestly if those are the starting points there is no reason not to find a middle ground. Assuming both sides understand they have to give a little there is probably something to be done with opt-outs and whatnot to find a way to get to a place they can meet.
   58. Nasty Nate Posted: January 28, 2020 at 07:05 PM (#5920068)
New contract agreement in place!
   59. Nasty Nate Posted: January 28, 2020 at 07:06 PM (#5920069)
...for mitch moreland
   60. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 28, 2020 at 07:07 PM (#5920072)
Merloni is saying 10/300 was the offer with Mookie countering at 12/420. Honestly if those are the starting points there is no reason not to find a middle ground. Assuming both sides understand they have to give a little there is probably something to be done with opt-outs and whatnot to find a way to get to a place they can meet.
The Red Sox’s offered AAV is a bit low, given recent signings, and Mookie’s counter is a little long in years, but, yeah, ~ $385/11years could do it. However, it doesn’t seem like the Red Sox are so inclined, if the current reporting is even ‘in the ballpark’. My guess is the bright boys don’t think risking that much on a single player is the smart play. They are bringing back Mitch Moreland, so you have that going for you.
   61. Nasty Nate Posted: January 28, 2020 at 07:20 PM (#5920073)
According to Lou Merloni, the Red Sox have made extension offers to Betts in each of the last three offseasons, with last year's proposal coming at 10 years, $300 million. Betts, however, countered with an asking price of 12 years, $420 million.
Those might be numbers from a year ago.
   62. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 28, 2020 at 07:27 PM (#5920074)
Good deal on Moreland. I was hoping they'd bring him back. He can hold down first for a bit and hopefully Dalbec pushes him out of the job at some point.
   63. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 30, 2020 at 05:41 PM (#5920612)
Buster Olney - Red Sox Deep Into Mookie Betts Talks With Dodgers:
The two sides have talked about possible trade combinations that involve veteran left-hander David Price, and some that don't include Price. The Red Sox see the benefit of opening spring training without the question of Betts' future hanging over the team, sources said. Betts, 27, will be eligible for free agency after the 2020 season, and the Red Sox have repeatedly broached the idea of signing him to a long-term deal, without success. Rival executives think it's inevitable that the Red Sox will trade Betts before the July 31 deadline.
   64. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 30, 2020 at 05:45 PM (#5920613)
The Red Sox see the benefit of opening spring training without the question of Betts' future hanging over the team, sources said.
You hear stuff like this all the time, but it just seems like BS narrative, right? Unless the Sox' outfielders are going to start dropping fly balls left and right because they lost them in the question of Betts' future.
   65. Jeff Frances the Mute Posted: January 30, 2020 at 05:50 PM (#5920614)
You hear stuff like this all the time, but it just seems like BS narrative, right? Unless the Sox' outfielders are going to start dropping fly balls left and right because they lost them in the question of Betts' future.

This is how people talk themselves into poor decisions.
   66. bfan Posted: January 30, 2020 at 05:58 PM (#5920616)
It was the Padres willingness to at least set a floor on the Mookie Betts market that kept the Dodgers-Red Sox talks going.

I have said this before and I will say it again: I think the Padres exist to make the baseball off-season more interesting and to gin up baseball thoughts and talks among the fans. The Padres will sign an FA at enormous costs, even if the FA does not have enormous skill; they will trade just about anyone for anyone else; and they will mention everyone on their 40 man in trade talks. I know the Seattle GM got a lot of press for his constant wheeling and dealing a year or so ago; he has nothing on A. J. Preller, who gets a lifetime achievement award in this category.
   67. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 30, 2020 at 06:32 PM (#5920631)
You hear stuff like this all the time, but it just seems like BS narrative, right? Unless the Sox' outfielders are going to start dropping fly balls left and right because they lost them in the question of Betts' future.


I think there is some validity to it. How much I have no idea. But dealing with a bunch of BS from media, Mookie himself constantly wondering what his future is, other players whose playing time will be impacted by whether or not Mookie is there wondering about their future...it's human nature for that to be a distraction and have an impact. I don't think it's going to turn a 95 win team into a 65 win team or anything but the less of that BS you have to deal with the better I think.
   68. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 30, 2020 at 06:50 PM (#5920635)
But dealing with a bunch of BS from media, Mookie himself constantly wondering what his future is, other players whose playing time will be impacted by whether or not Mookie is there wondering about their future...it's human nature for that to be a distraction and have an impact.
Good thing everyone will initially be preoccupied with questions about their sign-stealing activities, and speculation about who will be the new Red Sox Manager, eh?
   69. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: January 30, 2020 at 06:53 PM (#5920636)
1. Make sure Mookie is good and distracted about his contract situation.
2. Mookie has a #### season in 2020 because he's so darn distracted.
3. Re-sign him for pennies on the dollar because of his #### 2020.
4. Profit!
   70. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 02, 2020 at 04:12 PM (#5921142)
Inevitable?
Peter Gammons
@pgammo
Three different NL folks today predicted Betts-to-L.A. is "inevitable." Consensus deal:Alex Verdugo, Inf Jeter Downs, pitcher, maybe A prospect. Think P is LH Caleb Ferguson, 95 MPH FB/CB guy, 113-39 K-BB in 93.1 IP, eventual starter. Got brushed off Gray
Just a coincidence if the news breaks on Super Bowl Sunday? If they really want to bury a Mookie trade, they’ll wait until Monday when it’d be overshadowed by Truck Day.
   71. jmurph Posted: February 03, 2020 at 10:05 AM (#5921286)
MLB Network @MLBNetwork
"This is going to happen, Mookie Betts is getting traded. The only question is when and where." - @Ken_Rosenthal

   72. Moses Taylor, glorified meat shield Posted: February 03, 2020 at 12:03 PM (#5921311)
I know the Seattle GM got a lot of press for his constant wheeling and dealing a year or so ago; he has nothing on A. J. Preller, who gets a lifetime achievement award in this category.

Preller has been GM of the Padres for 1 year longer than Dipoto has been in Seattle (though Dipoto has a brief interim stint with the DBacks). This article on Dipoto's trading is from 2 years ago*, and Preller looks like an amateur in comparison.

*An update from last August, commemorating his 100th trade.
   73. SoSH U at work Posted: February 03, 2020 at 12:14 PM (#5921314)
Preller has been GM of the Padres for 1 year longer than Dipoto has been in Seattle (though Dipoto has a brief interim stint with the DBacks)


He was also the GM for the Angels for four years.
   74. Dock Ellis Posted: February 03, 2020 at 12:36 PM (#5921316)
HELL YEAH ITS TRUCK DAY
   75. DCA Posted: February 03, 2020 at 12:55 PM (#5921319)
Consensus deal:Alex Verdugo, Inf Jeter Downs, pitcher, maybe A prospect.

This would be a steal for the Red Sox. Verdugo has more excess pre-FA value than Betts. Downs is a good prospect. Ferguson is a decent one. Either there's some other value going to LA (they have no bad contracts, so not that) or both teams value the pole position to re-sign Betts similarly and very highly (for a guy who seems committed to test the market).
   76. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: February 03, 2020 at 05:18 PM (#5921384)
74 - There’s a thread for that!

75 - No it wouldn’t it would suck. Trading Mookie is terrible.
   77. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: February 03, 2020 at 05:39 PM (#5921393)
So I'm no longer going to be negative about this thing. The trade proposed in #75 is a good one for 1 year of Mookie.

Maybe they've had discussions of "hey, we'd like to pay you bucketloads of cash but need to reset our tax, how about you help us do that this year? We'll get some good young guys in return AND we'll back up the truck for you in 2021?"

To which Mookie responds, "That's brilliant, I'm in!"

Yes, that is how it is going to play out. Such a cunning plan, everyone is fooled!
   78. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 03, 2020 at 06:00 PM (#5921396)
This would be a steal for the Red Sox. Verdugo has more excess pre-FA value than Betts.
A deal that leaves a team weaker isn’t a steal, unless the spreadsheet is the sole measure, which it shouldn’t be. That Boston would trade Betts without making a realistic fair market value offer remains a mystery.
   79. Darren Posted: February 03, 2020 at 10:08 PM (#5921435)
^^^sounds very concerned
   80. Nasty Nate Posted: February 04, 2020 at 08:12 AM (#5921453)
Careful Darren, he's extremely sensitive and thin-skinned about people noticing or acknowledging his posts on a public forum.

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