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Sunday, November 13, 2022

Red Sox Rumors: Boston ‘High On The List’ For Star Free Agent

He will be 36 in January. Consider me unenthused.

Of course, I’m not willing to pay $30 a month for NESN so I only watch a game or two a year now. That’s after watching around 100 games on TV and another ten at Fenway for years and years. I get it, though, the Red Sox don’t need fans like me.

Boston is going to be “high on the list” of potential landing spots for José Abreu, as reported by Bruce Levine on a recent episode of the “Inside the Clubhouse” podcast (h/t MassLive). Other realistic options for the longtime Chicago White Sox first baseman reportedly are the Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins and World Series champion Houston Astros.

“When you talk about the Boston Red Sox, when you talk about the Houston Astros, when you talk about Miami, those are real fits for Abreu,” Levine said, as transcribed by MassLive’s Christopher Smith.

jimfurtado Posted: November 13, 2022 at 10:51 AM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agency, red sox

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   1. Darren Posted: November 13, 2022 at 01:35 PM (#6105369)
Fangraphs crowdsource says he gets 2/$32 mil. That sounds good to me, but he does seem to be getting a lot of attention, so maybe he gets a 3rd year?

This is also a fun reminder that the Red Sox, after missing out on Abreu, pivoted to spending $72 million on Rusney Castillo. Fun memories!
   2. The Mighty Quintana Posted: November 13, 2022 at 02:19 PM (#6105377)
Yeah, while he made a lot of money, that damn contract kept him from being a backup OF in the majors with the luxury tax penalties it would have triggered. I love 2/$30M for Abreu, he's sort of a Galarraga-type - I think he could be productive until 40.
   3. cHiEf iMpaCt oFfiCEr JE Posted: November 13, 2022 at 02:49 PM (#6105379)
If everyone loves the idea of Abreu at $30-32M/2, then it stands to reason he'll receive closer to $40M.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: November 13, 2022 at 03:24 PM (#6105384)
Y'never know. The Sox were able to regularly get Ortiz for a couple of years around $30 M ... so sure these days that should be $35 or $40 you'd think. But the "ugh 36" reaction is not really justified for a 2-year DH contract -- it could backfire but all you're doing is paying the guy a bit to hit until he can't hit anymore. He hit last year, he'll probably hit this year, eventually the bubble will burst but you won't be on the hook for enough to matter.

EDIT: call it 2/$35 with a $17.5 team option with a $2.5 M buyout.
   5. shoelesjoe Posted: November 13, 2022 at 07:06 PM (#6105414)
Supposedly the Orioles are going to loosen the purse strings this off-season. Mountcastle only put up a .729 OPS as their 1st baseman this season, which probably won't make if they decide to compete in 2023. Abreu might be the middle of the order bat they were missing, but if teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros are in the hunt it'll probably take three years guaranteed to sign him.
   6. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: November 14, 2022 at 08:10 AM (#6105438)
As a Red Sox fan, I'm willing to wait a while longer for a consistently competitive team, but what I'd really like, coming out of this 2022-2023 offseason, is a clear idea of what the plan is.

I think the plan is to keep building the depth and quality of the farm system, filing in holes in the interim with (generally) short-term veterans. But if that was the case, then why didn't the team do whatever it took last year to go under the soft salary "caps" that would have reset Boston's penalty status?

At the moment, the 2023 Red Sox do not seem poised to truly compete, which makes me question the wisdom of signing a 36-year-old to a multiyear deal.
   7. Darren Posted: November 14, 2022 at 04:24 PM (#6105503)
As a Red Sox fan, I'm willing to wait a while longer for a consistently competitive team, but what I'd really like, coming out of this 2022-2023 offseason, is a clear idea of what the plan is.


Why are you willing to wait? The team has $80 mil.+ available under the threshold and the resources to go well beyond, and there are some excellent players available.

I think the plan is to keep building the depth and quality of the farm system, filing in holes in the interim with (generally) short-term veterans. But if that was the case, then why didn't the team do whatever it took last year to go under the soft salary "caps" that would have reset Boston's penalty status?


Yeah, that was an odd choice, given that it didn't appear to be that hard. Also, it's sort of funny seeing them linked to multiyear deals for Abreu and Eovaldi while apparently hesitant about 30-year-old Bogaerts long term.
   8. Darren Posted: November 14, 2022 at 04:29 PM (#6105505)
My guess on the plan:

--Fill the rotation with 8 or so decent quality starters who might not be very durable, and hope that their absences line up nicely.
--Keep gambling in the bullpen.
--Add position mid-range players on short deals, hoping to mix and match to play to their strengths.
--Avoid long-term deals.

I don't love it.
   9. pikepredator Posted: November 14, 2022 at 04:30 PM (#6105506)
it's sort of funny seeing them linked to multiyear deals for Abreu and Eovaldi while apparently hesitant about 30-year-old Bogaerts long term.


Makes me want to go all Joe Pesci on you "you think I'm funny? Funny how?"

But yeah the idea that they're signing lower tier older guys to short term contracts before locking up younger stars isn't comforting.

So I looked at Abreu's spray charts to see how he'd fit a Fenway and tried to convince myself the monster would turn some of his outs into singles but not turn his HR into doubles and also that he'd wrap some more HR around the Pesky pole.
   10. Nasty Nate Posted: November 14, 2022 at 04:32 PM (#6105508)
Also, it's sort of funny seeing them linked to multiyear deals for Abreu and Eovaldi while apparently hesitant about 30-year-old Bogaerts long term.
I'm not sure what you mean. They would love to have Bogaerts for more years at whatever AAV Eovaldi gets.
   11. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 14, 2022 at 05:27 PM (#6105512)
Crowdsourcing expects Eovaldi and Abreu to sign for 2 years/$30-$35M, while Bogaerts is an 8 year/$250M investment.
   12. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: November 14, 2022 at 05:46 PM (#6105513)
--Avoid long-term deals.


Then they will never sign another great player. They can't even lock up the good, young guys they already have in house(Devers for instance).

It's really not that hard. Lock up your good, young position players, trade for and sign SP for 3/4 years for good money, cobble together a pen utilising whatever analytics Tampa uses.

Since Fenway sports are selling LFC AND going cheap with the Red Sox it would seem that maybe John is struggling to pay the mortgage!

The sad part about last season was the OF production was dreadful and they hit like 9 homers, yet they traded Renfroe for pennies on the dollar and didn't sign Schwarber(who apparently really wanted to stay) and those 2 guys hit like 75 homers last year. Sure, not the best fielders around, but geez, at least you'd have a decent RF and a guy who would be taking over the DH slot this year.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: November 14, 2022 at 11:35 PM (#6105576)
At the moment, the 2023 Red Sox do not seem poised to truly compete, which makes me question the wisdom of signing a 36-year-old to a multiyear deal.

But also ...

I think the plan is to keep building the depth and quality of the farm system, filing in holes in the interim with (generally) short-term veterans.

They're not gonna sign Abreu for 5 years, they're gonna sign him for 2-3 as a "short-term veteran" to fill a hole at DH with some 1B. As a DH, it's nearly impossible he could even block somebody (as teams seem to hate restricting a young player to DH no matter how obvious it is that's his natural role).

It's certainly possible that Abreu on a 2-3 year deal won't be the optimal use of tens of millions but it would probably work out just fine and even if it's a bust, it's simply not going to be enough money to matter. Meanwhile Abreu could be a fun guy to watch hit in Fenway. It's only 128 PA but career 310/367/586 at Fenway -- oddly just 6 HR but a solid 14 doubles. He might make a run at the doubles record, that'll be fun. Admittedly I may be "biased" by his 346/408/641 career against the Cubs -- I'll be happy as long as he doesn't land in StL or Milw.

But hey, you cheapskates wouldn't front up for Schwarber ... or Mookie ... or X ... or Devers so I can see how important $/WAR is to you folks. :-)

   14. Darren Posted: November 15, 2022 at 03:24 PM (#6105655)
Also, it's sort of funny seeing them linked to multiyear deals for Abreu and Eovaldi while apparently hesitant about 30-year-old Bogaerts long term.

I'm not sure what you mean. They would love to have Bogaerts for more years at whatever AAV Eovaldi gets.


I'm not saying the situations are exactly analogous, nor do I think it's indefensible. It's just sort of weird to see that the most they've offered Bogaerts so far takes him through age 33, and Eovaldi's deal would start at age 33 and Abreu's at age 36.

Crowdsourcing expects Eovaldi and Abreu to sign for 2 years/$30-$35M, while Bogaerts is an 8 year/$250M investment.


See above. And crowdsourcing for Bogaerts is 6/168 for what it's worth.
   15. Raymondus Posted: November 28, 2022 at 03:33 AM (#6106992)
I suggest all guys stumble guys online. Maybe it belongs to your list
   16. Darren Posted: November 28, 2022 at 02:09 PM (#6107044)
It doesn't.
   17. Itchy Row Posted: November 28, 2022 at 02:16 PM (#6107046)
Apparently he's signing with the Astros. The all-important title of "Most career HR by a player who only played for the White Sox" will revert to Ron Karkovice.
   18. JJ1986 Posted: November 28, 2022 at 02:36 PM (#6107053)
The all-important title of "Most career HR by a player who only played for the White Sox" will revert to Ron Karkovice.
I think it's actually Tim Anderson. He's got 97 to 96 for Kark.
   19. Itchy Row Posted: November 28, 2022 at 02:56 PM (#6107056)
I guess I associate Tim Anderson with Jose Abreu so much, I mentally filtered TA7 out as also being gone. Eloy Jimenez could also pass Karko with a healthy season or two half-seasons.
   20. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: November 28, 2022 at 07:56 PM (#6107097)
At the moment, the 2023 Red Sox do not seem poised to truly compete, which makes me question the wisdom of signing a 36-year-old to a multiyear deal.

But also ...

I think the plan is to keep building the depth and quality of the farm system, filing in holes in the interim with (generally) short-term veterans.

They're not gonna sign Abreu for 5 years, they're gonna sign him for 2-3 as a "short-term veteran" to fill a hole at DH with some 1B. As a DH, it's nearly impossible he could even block somebody (as teams seem to hate restricting a young player to DH no matter how obvious it is that's his natural role).


I'm the person who wrote the seemingly-contradictory pair of statements, but as Abreu's contract details come out today, I feel even more confident that signing a guy like Abreu was exactly the wrong thing for the 2023 Red Sox to do.

It is reported as three years, $60m guaranteed. It may be $20m a year for three years, or it could be something like 3/$54m, with a $6m buyout of a 4th-year option. Let's call it $20m a year for three years.

As a Red Sox fan, the idea that management would give a 36-year-old DH a 3-year deal for that kind of money when they are reportedly $50m apart from signing Devers to a long-term deal is lunacy. I'd much rather take a chunk of that $20m a year and apply it to Devers' extension, and then fill DH with a cheap bat-only guy stuck in the minors. Heck, they may already have a guy kind of like that in Enmanuel Valdez, who they just acquired from Houston as part of the Vazquez deadline deal. He's a left-handed hitter; platoon him with a cheap right-handed hitter, and use the money to keep the young premium players we already have.
   21. SoSH U at work Posted: November 28, 2022 at 08:47 PM (#6107099)
I guess I associate Tim Anderson with Jose Abreu so much, I mentally filtered TA7 out as also being gone. Eloy Jimenez could also pass Karko with a healthy season or two half-seasons.



Odds are both of them will eventually be passed (ununpassed?) by Karkovice before their careers are over.

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