That's a really reasonable deal, I expected Sale to be looking for Price or Greinke money (6-7 years, 200m+). I don't love opt outs, but this sets the Sox lineup for several years to come and allows them to consider what they should do with Bogaerts and Betts. If I were running the team I'd just sign them both.

Also sets the market for Jacob DeGrom, which should make the Mets happy. DeGrom at 5/130ish would seem reasonable given this deal.

DeGrom at 5/130ish would seem reasonable given this deal.

Why would deGrom get less than Sale? Age means very little for pitchers (it's less than one year anyway), and Sale has a lot more mileage on his arm, and more recent injury concerns.

Why would deGrom get less than Sale?

Because Sale is better?

How many good free agents are there going to be next offseason? Cole and Rendon are Boras clients, so that's probably 2. Everybody else is coming off the board.

How many good free agents are there going to be next offseason? Cole and Rendon are Boras clients, so that's probably 2. Everybody else is coming off the board.

Puig

JD Martinez (probably) and Xander Bogaerts

Donaldson
Goldschmidt
Ozuna
Bumgarner
Harvey
Didi

No franchise players though.

Scratch Goldschmidt from [7].

Because Sale is better?

Is he? Zips and Steamer both project them as nearly identical in value.

Sale has been better, for his career, but deGrom has thrown 600 fewer IP, and has been healthier lately.

ZiPS and Steamer both project Sale to be clearly superior (if not by giant margins) on an inning for inning basis. They just give deGrom an extra 15-20 innings. Which is reasonable, based on their aforementioned injury histories, but you can't say they project equally and then give deGrom extra credit for better health. It's double counting.

Also, Sale was only 1 year away from FA, while deGrom is 2 years away.

ZiPS and Steamer both project Sale to be clearly superior (if not by giant margins) on an inning for inning basis. They just give deGrom an extra 15-20 innings. Which is reasonable, based on their aforementioned injury histories, but you can't say they project equally and then give deGrom extra credit for better health. It's double counting.


No, I think it's two different health issues. 1) deGrom is likely to throw more innings in a season when both are healthy, and 2) Sale is more likely to suffer a catastrophic injury.

Also, Sale was only 1 year away from FA, while deGrom is 2 years away.

That's a fair point, though I'm not sure how much that has mattered in the AAV of recent extensions.

I'm puzzled by this deal. This is gonna be the last season Sale, Betts, Martinez, Porcello, and Bogaerts are all together, why not let the Sale prove he can still throw 200 innings before you start making decisions on who to keep?

I'm puzzled by this deal. This is gonna be the last season Sale, Betts, Martinez, Porcello, and Bogaerts are all together, why not let the Sale prove he can still throw 200 innings before you start making decisions on who to keep?

My overly simplistic answer is that good starting pitching is a. ####### expensive and b. seemingly no one is reaching free agency anymore. If there's trust and a relationship and they can get him at their number, it makes a lot of sense to do it.

1) deGrom is likely to throw more innings in a season when both are healthy,

Why? Last year, Sale lost about 5 starts to injury, but in the previous 3 years he threw 214, 226, and 208. deGrom has reached 30 starts three times in his career, and has thrown 217, 201, and 191.

As for sale having more IP on his arm, that's true, but the difference isn't as large as it looks. Minor league innings count as well, and Sale has a total of 14 minor league IP, while deGrom has over 300, so the total professional IP difference between the 2 is less than 300.

There's also no way deGrom accepts less that Sale just got, immediately after (deGrom) winning the Cy Young. Metrics will say what they will say, but they are entirely academic in this instance. Not happening.

The Mets should give him the identical deal and, hopefully, be done with it.

As a fellow Mets fan, I agree with that. ~5/150 is perfectly reasonable for both sides, and I'd be all for it.

If there's trust and a relationship and they can get him at their number, it makes a lot of sense to do it.

Yeah, I get that. I've just watched too many skinny, hard-throwing mutants pitch at an all-world level until they couldn't for me to feel comfortable about pushing that many chips on Sale when I know I have all these other markers coming due (pardon my mixed gambling metaphors). Verlander was nearly as productive as Sale last year and signed for about 3/4s the money -- yes, I know he's quite a bit older, but still... If you end up having to give Sale an extra $3 million a year for waiting to see if he's still got it, is that so terrible?

If you end up having to give Sale an extra $3 million a year for waiting to see if he's still got it, is that so terrible?

Maybe? The Sox seem to value the cost certainty here. If they don't sign Sale then they are hunting for pitching which means they are going to have to find a way to get a deGrom or trade for Greinke or whatever might be available down the road. Sale is a known commodity to the organization. With the decisions they have to make in the next 24 months the certainty has value. The fact is the Sox have the basis of a rotation for the next few years; Sale, Price, EdRod and Eovaldi are all signed for the next three years minimum. Injuries etc...but that's a pretty solid set up right there. Now the Sox can set to making decisions on Mookie, X and JDM.

Speaking of which I'm kinda surprised they haven't already worked out a new contract with JDM. I suppose they like to pretend they have payroll limits so maybe it's a choice between Bogaerts and him and they want to get a better feel for whether they can re-sign Bogaerts and at what price.

I should have thought of this similar before (he's even #1 at b-r for age 27 and current #5) but JDM is shockingly similar to George Foster. Both couldn't establish themselves until age 26 (Foster for rather different reasons) but from 26-30:

GF 302/369/560, 153 OPS+, 174 HR, 29 WAR, 20 WAA
JDM 307/371/586, 155 OPS+, 171 HR, 22 WAR, 12 WAA

The WAR/WAA difference is entirely 73 runs of Rfield in Foster's favor. Foster had a weird career after that -- 4 WAR player for ages 31-32, replacement level for 33-34, average for 35-36 ... added up to 12 WAR, 0 WAA.

Walt - I think the Sox rank them Mookie, Xander, JDM in terms of desire to keep them. I would put JD ahead of X (and I adore Bogaerts) but that’s the only think I can think of.

JDM and the Sox just negotiated a year ago, and are a year away from a potential opt out. It would be unusual, if not unprecedented, timing to renegotiate right now.

An contract with an opt-out is essentially an offer on the table. JDM can take it or opt out and continue negotiation. In the meantime, Boston's only moves are to wait until he decides, or to bid against themselves. I'd be shocked if they talk at all before end of the season.

@martinonyc is saying that deGrom has agreed something with the Mets, pending a physical. So I guess we get to answer some of the above speculation soon.
EDIT - 5 years, $137.5, says @JeffPassan.

Betts is clearly the highest priority among the impending FAs, but as for Bogaerts:

1) What do you think the "finished product" of Bogaerts is? How much do you think his 2018 season is a pretty good representation of what he'll be like for the next, say, 3-5 years?

2) What past shortstop do you think he is most like? I've thought that his career arch, if things went well, could be Robin Yount. Like Yount, he came up to the bigs at a young age. It took Yount a long time to get to the next level - the Brewers were extremely patient, as his first six years as a regular were fine - not much power, OPS+ a little below 100 most years. Yount was so young, though, that it took a long time to develop power. Age 26 (the age Bogaerts will be in 2019) was his big MVP year in 1982. If Bogaerts gets a little better in 2019 than he was in 2018, he'll be an MVP candidate (he finished 13th in the balloting in 2018).

3) How much would you pay him? Would you do a 5/$110 extension?

deGrom signed a 5-year extension for $137.5MM. Shows what I know.

@25, and quoting myself from a Sox Therapy thread:

Xander Bogaerts:
This is the toughest decision for me. He's been a consistent 3-4 WAR player over the last 4 years, and is only 26 entering this year. It's hard to find a comparable player who's gotten a free agent deal or long extension, since guys like Correa and Lindor are just now arb eligible.

The two guys who have reached free agency and have been as good or better than Bogaerts since 2014 are Brandon Crawford and Andrelton Simmons, who are significantly better defenders than Bogaerts but also significantly inferior hitters. They signed extensions of 6/75m buying out 2 years of arbitration and 7/58m buying out a year of pre-arb and all arb years respectively.

Then there's Jean Segura, who is more similar to Bogaerts offensively but still wasn't as good as Bogaerts is now (96 OPS+ with a career high of 122 when he signed his extension, compared to 106 OPS+ with a career high of 133) and who was also a year older. Segura signed for 5/70 w/ a club option to make it 6/87 and bought out 1 arb year.

So Bogaerts is going to be looking for more money than any of these guys unless he has a catastrophic season, since he's younger and every year is a FA year. And my general philosophy is that I don't want to give opt-outs due to the amount of downside risk it puts on the club, so that will also increase the total price. And he's a Boras client.

Given his age, the fact that he's been a part of two world series teams, and that he's been with the Sox org since he was 17, I'm fine with the fact that we're going to have to pay him, though. Something like 7/140m seems reasonable, for his age 27-34 seasons. I'd probably be willing to go up from that to an AAV in the ~25m/year range and/or 8 or 9 years, because the Sox have a ton of money and I think the hitting improvement last year is for real and so he'll hit enough to be able to move off SS when his merely average defense degrades as he ages into his middish-30s. So really, it could be anything from 140m to 200m.

deGrom accepted a deal that was pretty similar to Sale's, the big differences being that Sale was to be a FA after this season while deGrom is buying out an arb year. Both have a player opt out, both have an additional sixth option year, and the difference in money isn't that much. I'm well pleased by the agreement, deGrom's my favorite current Met.

I think the Sox rank them Mookie, Xander, JDM in terms of desire to keep them

So would I. It's more that X is FA after this year and unless there are promising negotiations going on as we speak, then he's going FA and there's never any guarantee you can re-sign him. So at this point, I don't think that can affect any decision on JDM. (And technically I'd put a buyout of Benintendi ahead of JDM but that's probably a small enough deal over the next few years that it doesn't really matter either.)

JDM and the Sox just negotiated a year ago, and are a year away from a potential opt out. It would be unusual, if not unprecedented, timing to renegotiate right now.

Seems perfectly normal/natural to me, especially with the opt-out. The main sticking point in the negotiations was basically "we're worried you're not really worth 5/$125 so we'll only guarantee X" vs. "what more do I have to do to prove I'm worth 5/$125? I'm only accepting X with an opt-out." Well, once again, what were the Sox looking for to convince themselves he's worth the commitment? But yes, it seems they'd rather take their chances next year.

And if you want to keep the player, it's way better to be negotiating against yourself than against a wider field -- as they will soon be reminded by Bogaerts.

It's not a direct comparison but teams were briefly quite fond of the "double dip" extension. Braun and the Brewers are an obvious example -- they signed him to an 8-year buyout in 2008 then in 2011 extended that another 5 years. (We didn't have opt-outs yet.) And we've just seen teams "move early" on Sale, Verlander, deGrom, Trout, etc.

On deGrom ... it appears to be a 4/$120 extenstion with an option for a 5th year at about $30. Given the first of those years is still an arb year, this is essentially a higher AAV than Sale but a year shorter ... but signs them through the same age.

Other than A Rod has any player actually opted out of their deal? It seems like a lot of people are assuming JDM is going to, but history isn't on his side.

Yes, JD Drew and Greinke. Also, others would have but instead had their contracts improved.

Cespedes also opted out, I believe. I'm not assuming Martinez will, but there's a decent probability.

What's up with Xander's defence? His dwar numbers were down last year by a lot.

Probably just a blip. Fielding stats are volatile, and have fairly high error bars to begin with.

FWIW, TZ and UZR both liked him a lot better last season than DRS did. Xander has never been a plus fielder at SS, but until I see more than a one year outlier, I wouldn't panic about it.