User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Page rendered in 0.3420 seconds
48 querie(s) executed
| ||||||||
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
| ||||||||
Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Saturday, December 10, 2022Red Sox’s Chaim Bloom on losing Xander Bogaerts: ‘It got to a point we weren’t going to’ - masslive.comHere’s a great interview and article by Chris Cotillo. I’ve been hammering Red Sox ownership and giving Bloom a break because owners make the call on big contracts. After reading the article, I wonder how much responsibility Bloom has for some of the decisions. Although most people didn’t properly forecast this off-season market, the Red Sox offered Bogaerts a decidedly undermarket contract (as the market was perceived) during last off-season. For Bloom to say the Red Sox had a high priority to keep Bogaerts, while offering such a contract, is either a blatant lie or an incompetent estimate of Bogaets market value. In either case, Bloom and the Red Sox don’t look good. Going forward the team needs to do a better job in both evaluation and explaining to fans just what they are trying to do. Or, they can continue to get HAMMERED by their fans, while becoming a less attractive option for free agents.
jimfurtado
Posted: December 10, 2022 at 08:49 AM | 14 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Tags: chaim bloom, red sox |
Login to submit news.
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks. Hot TopicsNewsblog: OT - November* 2023 College Football thread
(253 - 12:38am, Dec 03) Last: Mayor Blomberg Newsblog: Who is on the 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot and what’s the induction process? (327 - 11:15pm, Dec 02) Last: chisoxcollector Newsblog: OT - NBA Redux Thread for the End of 2023 (119 - 10:11pm, Dec 02) Last: Tom Cervo, backup catcher Newsblog: Forbes: For MLB, Las Vegas, And Oakland, The A’s Name And Brand Should Stay Put (33 - 9:21pm, Dec 02) Last: Walt Davis Newsblog: Update on Yankees’ Juan Soto trade talks: Teams talking players, but not close on agreement (30 - 8:20pm, Dec 02) Last: The Yankee Clapper Newsblog: OT Soccer - World Cup Final/European Leagues Start (291 - 6:38pm, Dec 02) Last: Infinite Yost (Voxter) Newsblog: Hot Stove Omnichatter (52 - 3:21pm, Dec 02) Last: Howie Menckel Hall of Merit: Mock Hall of Fame 2024 Contemporary Baseball Ballot - Managers, Executives and Umpires (24 - 1:05pm, Dec 02) Last: cookiedabookie Newsblog: Zack Britton details analytics ‘rift’ that’s plaguing Yankees (8 - 8:11pm, Dec 01) Last: McCoy Hall of Merit: Hall of Merit Book Club (16 - 6:06pm, Dec 01) Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Newsblog: Jackson Chourio extension: Brewers closing in on historic deal with MLB's No. 7 prospect, per report (19 - 4:54pm, Dec 01) Last: Rally Newsblog: Sportsnet's Ben Wagner out as voice of Blue Jays radio broadcasts (4 - 3:04pm, Dec 01) Last: Ron J Newsblog: Former Yankee Luis Severino agrees to 1-year, $13 million deal with Mets: reports (25 - 1:49pm, Dec 01) Last: Howie Menckel Newsblog: OT: Wrestling Thread November 2014 (3019 - 12:21pm, Dec 01) Last: a brief article regarding 57i66135 Newsblog: Reds, RHP Nick Martinez agree to $26M deal, sources say (9 - 10:39am, Dec 01) Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) |
|||||||
About Baseball Think Factory | Write for Us | Copyright © 1996-2021 Baseball Think Factory
User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
| Page rendered in 0.3420 seconds |
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Rough Carrigan1 HR in every X AB:
2019: 1 in every 18.6 ab
2020: 1 in every 18.5 ab
2021: 1 in every 23.0 ab
2022: 1 in every 37.1 ab
ISO:
2019: .246
2020: .202
2021: .198
2022: .149
Hard Hit Rate:
2019: 47.3%
2020: 37.0%
2021: 43.1%
2022: 39.6%
Avg. Exit Velo:
2019: 91.1 mph
2020: 89.0 mph
2021: 89.6 mph
2022: 88.1 mph
As for the increase in OBP, look at his BABIP:
2019: .338
2020: .329
2021: .333
2022: .362 - an abnormally high BAPIP, despite a big drop in hard hit rate
K rate:
2019: 17.5%
2020: 18.2%
2021: 18.7%
2022: 18.7%
BB rate:
2019: 10.9%
2020: 9.3%
2021: 10.3%
2022: 9.0%
2019: .00903
2020: .00711
2021: .00813
2022: .00919
Is he declining? Certainly looks that way. But it also is somewhat exaggerated by choosing 2019 as a starting point given it was his best season ever with the bat. Will he continue to decline? Certainly, but how steeply remains to be seen. Is he going to drop from a 5 WAR per season player to a 2 WAR per season player in one year? Seems unlikely, but the drop in power may be exacerbated by moving to Petco, or it's possible enough of those doubles off the wall will turn into HR to mitigate. I'm very curious to see how he plays over the next few seasons. Hopefully he can help the Padres advance into the post season.
I won’t be shocked if this goes Fred Lynn on the Padres. A little decline, a little aging, a little park effect and I expect this not to be a great deal. And the Sox still should have signed him. The last few years the Sox have stopped being bold.
So, I don't have a problem with the Red Sox not matching the offer. I do have a problem with the team not locking up Betts early and not addressing Bogaerts last off-season when they could have signed him to a reasonable contract.
There is some value to locking up a player like Bogaerts to keep him on your team for his entire career. Fans are typically much more forgiving of the downside of such deals because the player (and team) have built up goodwill in the player's more productive years. I remember watching Yaz finish out his career. He was no longer a superstar but was still a productive contributor. Bogaerts, although not the same talent as Yaz, has been a consistent performer and fan favorite for some time, he certainly will age but I would have been good with it.
271/338/420 R
The gap in ISO appears to be equally split between doubles and HRs. Most hitters are better at home, but I don't think it's near that extreme.
Offense was down overall so I'm not sure how much concern there should be in those trends.
However - especially when you consider Bogaerts' agent is Scott Boras - it must be kept in mind that the closer a player gets to free agency, the less likely any deal is going to be struck prior to testing the market. Last winter was already almost certainly too late for Boston to avoid free agency for Bogaerts, because at that point, the player only has one year worth of injury risk (or other cause of performance decline) to weigh against the benefits of getting to free agency.
For Boston to have convinced Bogaerts (and Boras) to put off free agency, Boston had to make a convincing offer far earlier in Bogaerts' career. Of course, they already bought out a few years of free agency with a $20m/yr extension.
The problem for Boston? The opt-out after 2020 which everybody knew he was going to exercise. That is a Boras trademark - he wanted Bogaerts to have the security of a long-term deal if his client got hurt or became ineffective...but he also wanted his client to be able to test free agency for a peak-timing payday if Bogaerts had a good last few years...which he did.
There was 0% chance Boston could get Bogaerts to sign a 10-year deal a few years ago, unless either it a) was a much higher AAV, and/or 2) it was going to include some kind of opt-out by about 2024.
The reason the Rays and Braves have been able to get these long-term deals done with their homegrown prospects, generally, is because they make deals with players extremely early in their big-league careers, buying out arbitration years and a few years of free agency in exchange. (The Red Sox did this with Whitlock last year BTW...)
Those are great deals - when they work - because the young player gets protection against injury or ineffectiveness, while the team gets cost certainty during the arb years, and typically 1-2 years of delay in free agency.
But that's not what is happening here. This is a 30-year-old player who has been on the big league team for about a decade, who has already signed an extension before, and now sees the mega-payday within reach. This would never have been completed last off-season (unless the team offered mega-money); it could have been done three or four years ago...maybe.
His raw numbers will probably decline but according to his ZIPS projection, Bogaerts will be more valuable in SD than in Boston (4.0 WAR in Boston vs. 4.5 in SD). The ZIPS projection for him is pretty rosy overall, seeing him as improving at age 31 to 4.7 WAR, and amassing 30 WAR for the life of the contract. I have a hard time believing that.
--Power was down around the league in 2022, with ISOs down about 17 percent vs. the average of 2019-2021. Bogaerts was still down a bit more than that.
--He was reportedly dealing with a nagging back injury after a collision on May 21. Now being injured isn't a good thing, but it was sort of a fluke. And he wasn't really hitting for much power before that either. But it did seem in watching him that Bogaerts was not more focused on going the other way, beating the shift, and taking what the defense gave him this year. (I know that's pretty anecdotal.)
Bogaerts being able to still put up almost exactly the same overall offensive production by shifting his approach (if that's what's happened here) would be very impressive and a great sign for him as he ages.
It wouldn't surprise me if the presence of Story made Bogaerts look better. There are fewer missed plays up the middle if Story is ranging there; likewise, there are fewer balls through the 3B/SS hole if Bogaerts can position closer to it given he has Story to his left. DRS has always given Story high marks for his range. But, like, Bogaerts improved on throws. Unless it's on throws to second - which admittedly would have a big impact on runs saved if that's where the improvement was - I don't see how that would do it.
Maybe he doesn't like his head to be touched?
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main