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Saturday, January 11, 2020

Reds’ Bauer skirts arbitration after sour ’19 hearing vs CLE

CINCINNATI (AP) — Trevor Bauer agreed to a $17.5 million, one-year deal with the Cincinnati Reds on Friday, bypassing salary arbitration after the All-Star pitcher had a contentious hearing with Cleveland last offseason.

Bauer, acquired from the Indians in July, relished beating Cleveland in arbitration the past two offseasons but complained after last winter’s hearing that Major League Baseball labor relations staff attempted “character assassination” against him.

The right-hander was awarded $13 million over the Indians’ $11 million offer in 2019, a year after winning a raise to $6,525,000 against Cleveland’s $5.3 million offer. Bauer donated his extra winnings in 2018 to charity in what he called “69 days of giving” — an online campaign that leaned on sexual innuendo and a reference to marijuana to raise awareness.

Bauer said MLB labor relations department representatives attempted to use the operation to “demean my character” in the 2019 hearing.

Somehow, this really isn’t much of a surprise…..

 

QLE Posted: January 11, 2020 at 12:40 AM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: reds, trevor bauer

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   1. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 11, 2020 at 09:16 AM (#5914750)
2018 really sticks out on his playing record. Other than that he’s never had a year with an ERA under 4.00 and he was a disaster for the Reds. BBRef has a projection for 2020 for him with a 3.93 ERA and I’d be pretty comfortable betting on him being worse than that.
   2. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 13, 2020 at 04:05 AM (#5915059)

#1 He has a 3.92 career FIP. 3.60 over the past 3 seasons, 4.34 last year. 4.85 during his time with the Reds, which was driven by a very high HR rate. If he can get that back under control he should be ok there. CIN supposedly had a good defense last year (not sure if it's supposed to be good in 2020 too) but that should also help him.

He threw more innings in 2019 than he ever had before, even if you include his trips to the postseason with CLE. Not sure how much that had to do with his struggles with the Reds, if at all.
   3. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 13, 2020 at 11:30 AM (#5915094)
In those numbers 2018 is doing a fair amount of heavy lifting. The FIP climbs by nearly a quarter of a run (4.17) if you take out 2018 and obviously the last three years is heavily influenced by 2018. The HR rate was pretty bad last year and I'll accept that some rebound is possible, perhaps likely (though Cincinnati is a bandbox and everyone hits homers). But his FIP last year was 4.15 with Cleveland which is still higher than that 3.93 projection. I think he's highly likely to be better than he was for the Reds last year but Bauer has a bit of the AJ Burnett to him. People keep expecting him to be this Cy Young candidate and star but really he's just an average pitcher. That has value (Rick Porcello another example) and guys have those years (again; Porcello) but expecting about league average for him seems like the right call.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 13, 2020 at 11:42 AM (#5915097)
but expecting about league average for him seems like the right call.

League average quality, but in high volume, is a pretty good pitcher.
   5. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: January 13, 2020 at 12:24 PM (#5915103)
Crazy how math works, but if you take out a guy's best season, his career numbers don't look as good.
   6. SoSH U at work Posted: January 13, 2020 at 12:39 PM (#5915106)

Crazy how math works, but if you take out a guy's best season, his career numbers don't look as good.


It doesn't work the same for everybody. Mike Trout's best season is very close to the rest of his body of work, so you can remove it and nothing much changes at all.

Trevor Bauer's best season is an extreme outlier compared with the rest of his career, thus "it sticks out on his playing record."

   7. PreservedFish Posted: January 13, 2020 at 12:48 PM (#5915110)
In those numbers 2018 is doing a fair amount of heavy lifting.


It's doing the same lifting as 2017 and 2019.
   8. PreservedFish Posted: January 13, 2020 at 12:51 PM (#5915111)
Trevor Bauer's best season is an extreme outlier compared with the rest of his career, thus "it sticks out on his playing record."


It sticks out, but as you know, it's not proper to just ignore it as an aberration, as Jose seems to want us to do.
   9. SoSH U at work Posted: January 13, 2020 at 12:55 PM (#5915115)
It's doing the same lifting as 2017 and 2019.


No it isn't.

It sticks out, but as you know, it's not proper to just ignore it as an aberration, as Jose seems to want us to do.


I don't think he's advising to ignore it. If so, then he would be wrong.
   10. PreservedFish Posted: January 13, 2020 at 01:05 PM (#5915121)
He wants to discount it. I don't.

As usual, if you're trying to figure out how good a player is, Fangraphs is a better resource than BR. And as usual, when you look at the FIP and xFIP of outlier seasons, they look less outliery.

Past 5 seasons by xFIP:

4.3, 4.1, 3.6, 3.1, 4.3

Projecting this guy to 3.9 doesn't seem terribly nuts to me.
   11. Itchy Row Posted: January 13, 2020 at 01:18 PM (#5915123)
This is the important part-
Bauer donated his extra winnings in 2018 to charity in what he called “69 days of giving” — an online campaign that leaned on sexual innuendo and a reference to marijuana to raise awareness.
   12. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 13, 2020 at 01:33 PM (#5915131)
That has value (Rick Porcello another example) and guys have those years (again; Porcello) but expecting about league average for him seems like the right call.

Sure, that's probably about right. His last 4 years ERA+ were 106-109-196-104, so expecting something at least a little better than league average seems appropriate, especially for a guy who should be entering his prime -- unless there was something mechanically off or whatever during his time with the Reds.

As someone whose performance swings are almost entirely driven by HR rate over the past two years, he seems like a guy who would benefit quite a bit if MLB fixes the rabbit ball in 2020.
   13. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: January 13, 2020 at 01:39 PM (#5915134)
Trevor should share the details every time he talks about it. AP services was apparently too timid to include details.

Bauer announced Wednesday (in a 69-second video) that he’s launching a charitable campaign called “69 Days of Giving” during which he’ll make 68 donations of $420.69 and one contribution of $69,420.69.

Bauer’s passion for the sex number and the weed number is so great that he wanted to file for a salary of either $6.9 million or $6,420,969.69 in arbitration this year, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports. Less sophomoric minds prevailed, though, and Bauer ended up filing at $6,525,000. The charitable donations will account for the difference between that number and the $6,420,969.69 he actually wanted to paid. (He’ll end up donating a total of $98,027.61, with the remaining $6,002.70 going to a guy named Taiki Green, who produced the video and will run the campaign’s website.)
   14. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 13, 2020 at 05:02 PM (#5915321)
I'm not saying ignore it, but recognize that it's seriously out of line. The 3.93 ERA would be the second best of Bauer's career (this will be his 7th full season). I'm not sure why he would project to have the second best year of his career in a good hitters' park and what seems to be an increased offensive era.

I'm skeptical of projections on players that have weird years as part of the trend lines. Bauer's 2018 is a massive outlier and anytime a player has that kind of season sticking out on his record I just mentally discount it heavily (either good or bad). Look at his track record;

4.18
4.55
4.26
4.19
2.21
4.48

Six full seasons, five years over 4.00. Forget about that as an ERA, just look at it as a series of numbers. The mean is 3.98, the median is 4.37. My feeling in this case is the median is a better indicator of his actual quality than the mean.
   15. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 13, 2020 at 05:03 PM (#5915322)
As someone whose performance swings are almost entirely driven by HR rate over the past two years, he seems like a guy who would benefit quite a bit if MLB fixes the rabbit ball in 2020.


I think this is a HUGE part of projecting the 2020 MLB season. There are players out there who are going to be better/worse by dramatic amounts I think because of changes to the ball. I think the teams that can identify that are going to be hugely successful.
   16. PreservedFish Posted: January 13, 2020 at 05:18 PM (#5915328)
I'm not saying ignore it, but recognize that it's seriously out of line.


You're saying that the data we have on Bauer from 2018 is of lesser quality (less reliable, less accurate) than data from other seasons. That's fallacious. The data is just as good.

I'm not sure why he would project to have the second best year of his career in a good hitters' park and what seems to be an increased offensive era.


I don't think the BR projection takes these things into account... regardless, a 3.93 is really not far off from the 4.18, 4.19 and 4.26.

Look at his track record;

4.18
4.55
4.26
4.19
2.21
4.48


Did you see my comment in #10? If you set aside pure ERA and look at the statistics that attempt to quantify ability rather than results, 2018 sticks out much less.
   17. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 13, 2020 at 05:19 PM (#5915330)
Look at his track record;

4.18
4.55
4.26
4.19
2.21
4.48
Seems like a 4.20 ERA would be the right prediction, in the totality of the circumstances.
   18. Greg Pope Posted: January 13, 2020 at 05:33 PM (#5915340)
I think this is a HUGE part of projecting the 2020 MLB season. There are players out there who are going to be better/worse by dramatic amounts I think because of changes to the ball. I think the teams that can identify that are going to be hugely successful.

Has there been any official announcement that they're changing the ball?
   19. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 13, 2020 at 06:39 PM (#5915366)

His FIPs over the past 4 years are 3.99, 3.88, 2.44, and 4.35. The Reds supposedly had a good defense in 2019 so I don't expect that to hurt him.

GABP played like an absolute bandbox in 2018, but in other years it's not *that* much worse of a HR park than Progressive Field. I would expect that to have an adverse effect on Bauer, however, so league average seems like a reasonable guesstimate.
   20. Sunday silence Posted: January 13, 2020 at 07:24 PM (#5915385)
the median is 4.37.


Its been a long time since I studied math but isnt the median the middle number? In this case somewhere betweeen 4.19 and 4.26..
   21. Baldrick Posted: January 13, 2020 at 07:38 PM (#5915390)
I'm not sure why he would project to have the second best year of his career in a good hitters' park and what seems to be an increased offensive era.

Because that's how projections work.

I don't know. Maybe the very smart people who build projection systems haven't thought of looking into big outlier seasons to assess whether they have less predictive value. But my guess is that they probably have thought of it, and assessed it. And on balance, I'm going to trust the people who built systems that assess huge numbers of results more than I will a gut feeling.
   22. PreservedFish Posted: January 13, 2020 at 08:06 PM (#5915403)
The BR system is an intentionally simple. They don't have factors to fudge the weight of outlier seasons. It just takes the numbers and spits out new ones.

But Bauer's 2018 season wasn't really as big as an outlier as it looks. It was his best season in every way, but the K rate and BB rate were not far off his established levels nor off the levels he maintained in 2019. The primary thing about 2018 was that his HR rate was crazy low, like Greg Maddux low, an obvious fluke, and nobody could ever expect him to keep that up.

But the genius of even a simple projection system is that it doesn't want to know that it was a fluke and discount the numbers. Look at the past 3 or 5 years of Bauer's career and his HR rate over that time - which includes the flukey 2018 and the non-flukey surrounding years - is our best guess as to his actual ability at limited homeruns.
   23. Jose Is Absurdly Chatty Posted: January 13, 2020 at 08:35 PM (#5915413)
20 - Oops. I was splitting the difference on the two midpoint numbers but I picked the 4th and 5th best rather than 3rd and 4th which I should have.

21 - I understand that’s not how projections work but I’m saying I question this projection for the reasons I’ve laid out. I’m not saying we should just ignore the numbers because they came from someone who odesn’t watch the games from his mom’s basement or something like that but we are capable of forming our own opinions.

Look, I’m not saying Bauer should be projecting to a 5.00 ERA or anything, just that I’d make 4.25 or so my starting point. To snapper’s point that plus his durability has value.
   24. Dock Ellis Posted: January 13, 2020 at 09:31 PM (#5915432)
Trevor is having a lot of fun on twitter tonight over the Astros, taunting Lance McCullers and Alex Bregman. Somehow Mike Clevinger has inserted himself in the middle too. It's kinda fun!
   25. Dock Ellis Posted: January 13, 2020 at 09:50 PM (#5915437)
idgaf about his xFIP, he is entertaining as hell

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