The final piece.

Dansby thru 28: 255/321/417, 95 OPS+, +16 DRS, 14.5 WAR, 3.7 WAA
Baez thru 28: 265/307/477, 104 OPS+, +69 DRS, 23.4 WAR, 13 WAA
Story thru 28: 272/340/523, 112 OPS+, +69 DRS, 26.8 WAR, 16.9 WAA

Dansby 25-28: 11.5 WAR, 4.5 WAA
Baez 25-28: 18.4 WAR, 11.8 WAA
Story 25-28: 20 WAR, 13 WAA

Dansby 22-25: 245/318/385, 84 OPS+, 4.3 WAR, -1.3 WAA
Nico 22-25: 277/333/385, 98 OPS+, 6.6 WAR, 3.7 WAA in about half the playing time

The Cubs didn't think the homegrown Baez was worth keeping around (or bringing back) at 6/$140. Nor was it a good idea to replace him with Story at the same price. Hoerner is coming off an excellent year and has hit far better than anybody expected -- of course he's not gone, he's just presumably shifting to 2B.

Swanson was excellent last year and in 2020 -- maybe that's the new Swanson. And of course Baez cratered for the first half last year so maybe 2022 was the new Javy. Hoerner will be an excellent defensive 2B who should continue to hit OK so this indirectly fills one of the holes in the lineup and may free up Morel to be supersub. But still, I don't get the logic. It will surely work out better than the Heyward contract -- just because everything works out better than the Heyward contract -- and Swanson will be a perfectly adequate maybe even above-average member of the next good Cubs team but man this is underwhelming.

Dansby Swanson is available.

Downsides of this contract:
1) Swanson has only one season where he had more than 300 PAs and greater than 100 OPS+ in his career.
2) He'll be 36 when the contract expires.

Upsides of this contract:
1) His defense is pretty good.
2) Absolutely gorgeous hair.

Conclusion: worth it.

This has a Hendry-era MI-fetish feel to it - Swanson's a somewhat dubious major free agent signing, for the reasons Walt lays out. If he doesn't keep up his 2022 pace, Swanson probably doesn't even make them a whole lot better, and the Cubs org doesn't inspire any confidence that they can maximize anyone's offensive potential or really even help them maintain their previously established level. Basically, he lets them not worry too much about whether or not Madrigal figures things out.

More than anything, this seems like the pressure to make a major signing - from inside the organization as well as from media/fans - got to Hoyer and he got desperate. Would be interesting to see how much Swanson's other offers were for - not that I care if they overpaid, but it would be a bad sign for organizational competence if they decided they needed to get Swanson at all costs.

I dont really like it but also dont hate it. Gives the Cubs solid defense up the middle, its all about the bat. If he is close to last year for the first few years its worth it. If Javy out performs him going forward I will be mad. But at the end of the day its not my money being spent.

Yikes, of all the players who benefited from a good last season, this might be the most benefittest. As Walt noted, he was great in 2020, but outside of that and last season, he’s never even sniffed 3 bWAR.

Really, 95 career OPS+ with a career high of 115 says it all. I feel like it doesn’t take much for a player with that sort of offensive profile to crater and defense is a young man’s game. As the other comments allude, this seems like the sort of move of you have a championship window and need to upgrade at shortstop for a run. Not likely to look good in three years but you’d hopefully have gotten your value before that. Cubs don’t seem positioned to take advantage.

The Cubs and Red Sox seem to be doing something similar - building good but not great teams and spending a lot to do it. The Rockies used to take a lot of crap for that, but I think there's a lot to be said for putting a good product on the field vs the Orioles approach.

I watched Swanson a lot in Atlanta - very solid ballplayer. Don't think he's the offensive player he showed last year but perfectly cromulent. He's the kind of guy you want to surround your star players with, not be your star player.

I should add that, in the abstract and given the deals signed this year, I don't think it's a bad contract -- at least not a really bad one. But if you told me a couple of years ago that my choice was between extending Javy rather than trading him or Swanson a year later at 7/$177, that's a no-brainer. Javy wasn't the best bet going forward because the offense was prone to cratering so I could console myself it was the logical move and it has brought back a very good prospect in PCA. And then when Nico had his breakout year, I almost started to think Jed knew what he was doing -- why take an expensive risk with Javy if you've got the decent bat, good glove SS replacement already in house. But to take a bigger risk with Swanson just grates.

I suspect this is partially an over-reaction to getting rid of the shift. Nico was outstanding on the other side of second last year -- the Cubs shifted intelligently, giving Hoerner the major defensive role and most ground to cover. With Bellinger, I think the Cubs are smitten with the ol' "great up the middle defense" bug. It's certainly a pitching and defense team as it stands -- which will be great when the wind's blowing in.

For crying out loud, Swanson even Ks 26% of the time. He beats Javy on hair bbut that's it

Cubs as they seem to stand ...

C -- Gomes, Higgins, Amaya I guess
1B -- Mervis and probably some Wisdom (still waiting for a Voit/Myers signing)
2B -- Hoerner/Morel/Madrigal
SS -- Dansby/Hoerner
3B -- Wisdom/Morel
LF -- Happ
CF -- Bellinger/Morel
RF -- Suzuki
DH -- Reyes

Assuming Amaya in AAA, that leaves a spot. Who have I forgotten? I guess McKinstry at season's start (IF/LF), eventually Davis or Canario or Velasquez I guess. For reasons that might even baffle Einstein, the Cubs have a Miles Mastrobuoni (now there's a name!) on the 40-man ... a 27-yo IF/OF out of Tampa's system. He's been pretty good at AAA for the last couple of years ... looks like they picked him up in a trade that kept him out of the rule 5 but he doesn't seem to be more than either a smart man's Zach McKinstry or an extra cheap man's Zach McKinstry.

SP -- Stroman, Taillon, Hendricks, Steele, Wesneski, Sampson, Kilian, Assad (I'm guessing in that order)
RP -- Thompson, Hughes, Heuer and 15 guys nobody cares about** (wow, Rowan Wick is still around)

That's a reasonably solid, deep rotation. Obviously not an elite #1/#2, Hendricks could be done, Steele could be a mirage and surely 2 guys will get hurt but the guys at the top don't suck and I've got to admit it's a pretty interesting mix of #4/5 guys each of whom has shown some flashes. The bullpen is as anonymous as can be but they pulled it off last year, maybe they know what they're doing. I can't remember the last time the Cubs went into a season without a "real" closer -- any David Robertson equivalent out there? A Kimbrel NRI? (OK, he still commands a guaranteed contract but he might be available on a cheap prove-it contract)

So I think the Cubs are planning on winning a lot of 4-3 and 3-2 games while getting out-HRd 210-54.

** I know, nobody but us Cub nerds care about Thompson, Hughes, Heuer either

any David Robertson equivalent out there?

Adam Ottavino's a FA.

For crying out loud, Swanson even Ks 26% of the time. He beats Javy on hair bbut that's it

I mean, if you don't want to look at Swanson's one-year hitting stats when they're to his benefit, maybe look at career stats here as well. (Swanson 24.2%, Baez 28.6%.)

Swanson over the last 3 years has K'd 26%.

Baez over the last 3 years is at 29.6%.

So basically, striking out is a weakness in both of their offensive games, if I'm understanding you both correctly. We can split hairs over exactly how similar they are on this issue, but it seems like the overall point still stands.

So basically, striking out is a weakness in both of their offensive games, if I'm understanding you both correctly. We can split hairs over exactly how similar they are on this issue, but it seems like the overall point still stands.

Sure. I have no idea if Swanson will be better than Baez moving forward, I just don't see the need to engage in hyperbole in making the case that Baez is the better option ("beats Javy on hair but that's it"). Leaving K-rate aside entirely, Swanson has missed 2 games in the last 3 years.

Good week for Swanson - he just got married to USWNT soccer player Mallory Pugh and now signs a $177M contract.

Swanson - he just got married to USWNT soccer player Mallory Pugh

one more couple and we'll have a trend story on MLB shortstops and USWNT players -- Swanson and Pugh, Nomar and Mia Hamm...

Dansby 25-28: 11.5 WAR, 4.5 WAA
Baez 25-28: 18.4 WAR, 11.8 WAA
Story 25-28: 20 WAR, 13 WAA

Going back 4 years (and using BBRef) might tilt this comparison a bit. Going back three, using fWAR:
Dansby 26-28: 12.0 WAR
Baez 26-28: 10.4 WAR
Story 26-28: 11.2 WAR

ZIPS is also quite a bit more optimistic about Dansby than the others. ZIPS projection in FA year:
Dansby 29: 4.5 WAR
Baez 29: 3.1 WAR
Story 29: 3.6 WAR

This seems like a good contract for the Cubs, especially given the current market.

Baez over the last 3 years is at 29.6%.

Sure. I don't consider it news to anybody on planet earth that Javy Ks more than Swanson. I didn't even compare their K rates. But one less K a week is not exactly a game changer in contact.

The risk with Javy is that he Kd so much that the slightest wobble due to age could be disastrous to his offense. The risk with Swanson is that he's a less productive hitter than Javy who Ks so much that the slightest wobble due to age could be disastrous to his offense.

My claim was that Swanson Ks at 26% which he does. My earlier claim was that Swanson has a much worse track record than Javy which he does. Are you actually interested in trying to refute either point?

While one can make the case that last 4 years is little/no more predictive than last 3 in general, because 2020 was a <40% season, I am of the opinion that we need to use 4 years -- the sample size increase should offset any issues around increased "noise." Now I will concede that a Marcelian weighting is always a better idea than a straight average -- Swanson's big 2022 helps him a lot there in projections although Javy's 2021 was also very good.

Statcast swooned over Swanson this year at +16 runs. It's been positive but not nearly at that level before. I assume that's what Dan and apparently fangraphs are using these days??? Anyway, ZiPS projects him to +9 on defense and a gradual decline from there. DRS taks a much dimmer view. That's fine, I'll trust statcast over DRS (although I'm not entirely sure who statcast is comparing to). Anyway, if he's a consistent 2 dWAR per year player then, sure, he's a 4-5 WAR player, roughly Javy 2021. Conveniently enough:

JB 2021: 12 Rbat, 4 Rbase, -1 Rdp, 6 Rfield, 7 Rpos, 28 RAA
DS 2022: 12 Rbat, 3 Rbase, -1 Rdp, 9 Rfield, 10 Rpos, 32 RAA

So by bWAR, Swanson's career year was a bit better than Javy's 3rd-best year. The Rpos difference is mainly due to Swanson having about 30% more innings in the field and a bit to Javy moving mainly to 2B in favor of Lindor with the Mets.

C -- Gomes, Higgins, Amaya I guess
1B -- Mervis and probably some Wisdom (still waiting for a Voit/Myers signing)
2B -- Hoerner/Morel/Madrigal
SS -- Dansby/Hoerner
3B -- Wisdom/Morel
LF -- Happ
CF -- Bellinger/Morel
RF -- Suzuki
DH -- Reyes
SP -- Stroman, Taillon, Hendricks, Steele, Wesneski, Sampson, Kilian, Assad (I'm guessing in that order)
RP -- Thompson, Hughes, Heuer and 15 guys nobody cares about** (wow, Rowan Wick is still around)

The only thing you can assume for Amaya is four months on the injured list.
Not having Madrigal as a projected starter is a victory for the off-season.
I do love the defense on this team. Might as well go whole hog and pick up Hosmer for the minimum.
I thought we dumped Reyes.
Looks as if Smyly is coming back. That means Killian can be penciled into Iowa's rotation, and we've still got 8 legit starters going into ST.
Thompson and Alzolai can provide innings in the pen while Rossy can mix and match the rest.
I'd still love a starting catcher who provides a solid bat and great leadership at a reasonable cost, but they let him sign with the arch-rival.

Do not care for this and I really think the new FO completely missed the bus in terms of MI resigns, MI FA buys, and MI "we screwed the pooch so now what?".

Hoping Davis makes it back, PCA is for real, and then the OF looks to be in really good shape.

The pitching should be better than most Cub iterations - and maybe they've figured out how to develop pitchers (remains to be seen)... but the IF is basically a couple nice-to-have-arounds, a couple maybes, and a lot of spare parts.

At the end of the day, I'm now increasingly thinking the Cubs should have just gone "old school" and probably tossed gobs of money at the 2016 core. Those hindsight contracts don't look so bad and it feels like the spends are just expensive hole-patching for holes that were created by rebuilding.

IDK... At the end of the day, the Cubs really just need to prove they can actually develop some later round guys rather than leaning on high draft picks panning out.

I do know this -- if the next few years are going to be a middling team sniffing the playoffs when things break right? I'd rather be rooting for Bryzzo, Javy, Wily and company to make it happen.

The Cubs should see about trading Madrigal back to the White Sox.