Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Wednesday, December 25, 2019

Report: Dellin Betances, Mets agree to deal

Dellin Betances, among baseball’s most dominant relievers when healthy, has reportedly agreed to terms with the New York Mets, according to SNY’s Andy Martino. The deal is for one-year that includes two player options, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The hard-throwing righty missed nearly all of 2019 with the New York Yankees while dealing with shoulder issues, then partially tore his Achilles tendon when he finally returned to the mound for two-thirds of an inning in September.

While the injury-riddled season could not have come at a worse time for Betances, the four-time All-Star is expected to make a full recovery in time for spring training after opting for rehab instead of surgery.

He will join a Mets bullpen that finished 25th in baseball with a 4.95 ERA last season and could slide into the setup role along with Seth Lugo.

As a side thought- any theories involving why the hot stove season has been so much warmer, compared to the last couple of years?

 

QLE Posted: December 25, 2019 at 01:09 AM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: contracts, dellin betances, hot stove, mets

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Walt Davis Posted: December 25, 2019 at 04:02 PM (#5910939)
This looks like a pretty terrible deal for the Mets, if the details at cot's are correct

year 1: $7.5
year 2: $6 M player option with $3 M buyout
year 3: vesting option that seems completely ignorable

Maybe I don't understand how the year 2 option is going to work, but it is reported as a 1/$10.5 guaranteed contract so as I read it:

If Betances is good in year 1, he gets $10.5 and walks
If Betances is not good or is hurt, he exercises the option and gets $13.5

There's no real upside there for the Mets. Now if the Mets can buy out scenario two for $3 M even if Betances exercises the player option then the deal almost kinda makes sense (i.e. it's the Mets risking Betances will be worth $10.5 in 2020) ... or maybe it's even a case where if Betances doesn't exercise the option, he doesn't get the buy out and the buy out is only in effect if the Mets want to reject the player option. That would make lots of sense but I don't know if there are any examples of such an option in the past. (and I wouldn't put that as 1/$10.5 guaranteed)
   2. Walt Davis Posted: December 25, 2019 at 04:14 PM (#5910941)
Ramblings on QLE's query ... I've got no idea. There are any number of possibilities:

1. Teams have decided that waiting until Feb is counter-productive (miss out on promotion opportunities, leave players/manager up in the air, maybe miss out on the FA if wait too long ... all while maybe not saving any money on big FAs)

2. Teams, agents, players are back on the same page in terms of value ... or even teams were expecting much higher starting asking prices and are pretty happy to get these guys at these prices.

3. Owners/teams have decided to play nice coming into the next negotiations and/or think the MLBPA has a strong enough collusion case that they might win their grievances.

4. (This is a bit convoluted and a stretch but ...) Maybe Trout's extension is serving as a "cap" in the way that ARod's first contract seemed to. ARod's first 10/$250 market was a good bit more than any other player's AAV (I think Manny was #2 at $20 per year) ... which was fine because he was the best player. It was a long time before anybody topped that AAV probably in part because nobody could argue they were better than ARod (also due to the post-9/11 economic slump). At least for this offseason, Trout's extension kinda put a limit on max AAV. But he already wasn't far ahead of others so we'll see if it survives Mookie's FA/extension.
   3. Adam Starblind Posted: December 25, 2019 at 09:07 PM (#5910962)

There's no real upside there for the Mets.


The upside is an excellent relief pitcher for a very bad bullpen. They're not buying pork bellies here.
   4. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 25, 2019 at 09:27 PM (#5910964)
Betances could be quite good, and the Mets will have first shot at negotiating a longer term deal if they are so inclined. Of course, paying fair market value is out of favor these days, but if a team doesn’t produce enough exploitable MLB-caliber talent on its own, they sometimes have to pay players what they are worth.
   5. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: December 25, 2019 at 10:00 PM (#5910967)
I'm going to miss Betances, but Christ, has any pitcher ever had a year as star-crossed as he did in 2019? Waits until September to make his first appearance, strikes out two batters as if he'd been doing it all year, then leaps off the mound in celebration and tears his Achilles tendon.

Two bleeping batters in the whole goddam year. I hope his leads the Mets to the pennant.
   6. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 25, 2019 at 10:18 PM (#5910971)
Not the same for several reasons, but it reminded me at the time of Nate Pearson’s 2018. Considered maybe the steal of the ‘17 draft, he suffered an oblique injury and had his full season debut delayed... during which he got hit by a line drive in the second inning, missing the rest of the year. (He was fine in ‘19, posting a 2.30 ERA as a starter and he’s now considered the consensus top Jays prospect.)
   7. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: December 26, 2019 at 04:23 AM (#5910979)
1/10.5 for a healthy Betances would be a good deal at a position of need. I think that's easily more than enough to justify the risk that he claims an extra 3m while never healing or developing Edwin Diaz Syndrome.
   8. formerly dp Posted: December 26, 2019 at 08:32 AM (#5910985)
I hope his leads the Mets to the pennant.

Merry holidays to you too!
   9. formerly dp Posted: December 26, 2019 at 08:36 AM (#5910986)
Barring them getting in on players what would've required longer contracts, I don't see anything better for them to do with the Cespedes money. Between Betances & Lugo, they have a couple of options to close now if Diaz can't bounce back.
   10. billyshears Posted: December 26, 2019 at 12:31 PM (#5911023)
Now if the Mets can buy out scenario two for $3 M even if Betances exercises the player option then the deal almost kinda makes sense (i.e. it's the Mets risking Betances will be worth $10.5 in 2020) ... or maybe it's even a case where if Betances doesn't exercise the option, he doesn't get the buy out and the buy out is only in effect if the Mets want to reject the player option. That would make lots of sense but I don't know if there are any examples of such an option in the past. (and I wouldn't put that as 1/$10.5 guaranteed)


This is how I think it works.

Outside of the disastrous Diaz/Cano/Kelenic trade (Yes, other than that, Mrs. Lincoln . . . ), I kind of like what Van Wagenen has done. Last year, he focused on acquiring offensive depth to eliminate ABs to replacement level and below batters, and that was a major part of the team's success. This year, he's taking a similar approach to the pitching staff. This is a marked departure from Alderson's approach, which could mostly just be reduced to hoping for good health and performance. Call me crazy, but I think trying to not have to play actively shitty players often is a good strategy.
   11. formerly dp Posted: December 26, 2019 at 01:11 PM (#5911034)
Well...he cleared the deck for Broxton & Nido to get regular playing time, in the former case by dealing talent for Broxton and in the latter case by dealing away or cutting everyone who would have competed for the backup catcher job.

I agree with your general point, and what worked in Davis's case didn't work for Broxton, so I think the jury's still largely out on his ability to execute.
   12. Nasty Nate Posted: December 26, 2019 at 01:18 PM (#5911037)
Now if the Mets can buy out scenario two for $3 M even if Betances exercises the player option then the deal almost kinda makes sense (i.e. it's the Mets risking Betances will be worth $10.5 in 2020) ... or maybe it's even a case where if Betances doesn't exercise the option, he doesn't get the buy out and the buy out is only in effect if the Mets want to reject the player option. That would make lots of sense but I don't know if there are any examples of such an option in the past. (and I wouldn't put that as 1/$10.5 guaranteed)

This is how I think it works.
Maybe the reporting's wrong, but I think if the Mets had any choice it would be mentioned as a team option or described as a mutual option.

In essence I think it's 1/$10.5m with Betances able to add on 1/$3m if he chooses. "Buyout" is an imprecise word in this case, but used because if he does exercise the option his salaries will be $7.5m and $6.0m in the respective years rather than $10.5m and 3.0m.
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 26, 2019 at 01:27 PM (#5911039)
1/10.5 for a healthy Betances would be a good deal at a position of need.

The problem is he hasn't been healthy. The price of relief pitching continues to surprise me. If the Mets held the option year this would make a lot more sense.

How does Betances get over $10M, and Tyler Clippard gets under $3M?
   14. Howie Menckel Posted: December 26, 2019 at 01:48 PM (#5911047)
Betances, age 31, 2.36 ERA/177 ERA+, 621 K in 381 IP
TClippard, age 34, 3.14 ERA/131 ERA+, 905 K in 816 IP
   15. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: December 26, 2019 at 01:57 PM (#5911052)
Betances is expected to be ready for spring training and projects to an ERA 2 full runs lower than Clippard (at least according to Steamer).

Also, what Howie said.
   16. JAHV Posted: December 26, 2019 at 02:15 PM (#5911059)
That year two option is interesting. I'm curious what the range of performance is where Betances would exercise the option and the Mets would also not want to buy it out. If Betances bounces back and is good (or better), say something around 60 innings with an ERA lower than 4, good strikeout rates, and no extensive time missed with injury, he'd probably see if he can get three years at more than $6 million per year. If he's straight up bad or injured, the Mets are going to buy him out. But if he gives you those same 60-ish innings, an ERA between 4 and 5, maybe a significant dip in the K-rate to 10 or 11 K/9, some control issues - that might be enough to exercise the option and the Mets to think he's still a decent contributor to the pen with some upside for the next year or two.

I just wonder how narrow that band of performance is.
   17. Karl from NY Posted: December 26, 2019 at 03:00 PM (#5911072)
In essence I think it's 1/$10.5m with Betances able to add on 1/$3m if he chooses.

Not exactly - if Betances declines the player option, then it's just 1/$7.5m.
   18. Nasty Nate Posted: December 26, 2019 at 03:12 PM (#5911074)
In essence I think it's 1/$10.5m with Betances able to add on 1/$3m if he chooses.

Not exactly - if Betances declines the player option, then it's just 1/$7.5m.
Maybe. That would indicate that the "buyout" only happens if the Mets have the option to refuse his player option. I don't see anything (besides the use of the word "buyout") to indicate that the Mets can do that. The NY Times article interprets it like me: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/24/sports/baseball/dellin-betances-mets.html
Should Betances return from his injury and perform at his usual high level, he could decline the 2021 option and re-enter the free agent market having earned $10.5 million over one season.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: December 26, 2019 at 03:42 PM (#5911083)
And Cots follows that interpretation as well, listing it as 1/$10.5. But I suppose in a world where a recently-injured and not dominant on return Britton could get 3/$39 and the problematic and not dominant Familia could get 3/$30, Betances is worth a $10.5 gamble.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
BFFB
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogYasiel Puig is still a free agent
(33 - 1:22am, Feb 29)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogLawmakers push for Curt Flood’s enshrinement in Hall of Fame
(13 - 12:40am, Feb 29)
Last: Jaack

Hall of Merit2021 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(177 - 11:55pm, Feb 28)
Last: Jaack

NewsblogGary Sánchez Takes a Knee
(16 - 11:50pm, Feb 28)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogOT - NBA Thread 2020
(1506 - 11:45pm, Feb 28)
Last: Tin Angel

NewsblogWhiff: Nats closer Doolittle calmed by lavender oil on glove
(44 - 11:28pm, Feb 28)
Last: the Centaur Nipple Paradox (CoB).

NewsblogAwestruck Ted Simmons marvels at the Baseball Hall of Fame
(6 - 10:01pm, Feb 28)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogBregman becomes 7th Astros player hit by pitch in 5 games
(25 - 8:53pm, Feb 28)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogYouTube TV, Sinclair engaged in dispute impacting broadcasts of 15 teams
(38 - 8:51pm, Feb 28)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogBy 3 to 1 Margin Americans Say Astros Investigation was a Coverup and Players Need to Be Punished
(12 - 8:40pm, Feb 28)
Last: Astroenteritis

NewsblogDavid Ortiz selling baseball mementos, household items
(14 - 7:50pm, Feb 28)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 2-28-2020
(8 - 6:56pm, Feb 28)
Last: Hank Gillette

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1924 Ballot
(2 - 5:45pm, Feb 28)
Last: John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy

NewsblogOT - Soccer Thread - January, 2020
(701 - 4:44pm, Feb 28)
Last: AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 2-27-2020
(22 - 2:52pm, Feb 28)
Last: Itchy Row

Page rendered in 0.3389 seconds
46 querie(s) executed