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Saturday, July 30, 2022

Report: San Diego Padres, Joe Musgrove closing in on 5-year, $100 million deal

All-Star right-hander Joe Musgrove is on the cusp of receiving a five-year, $100 million contract from his hometown San Diego Padres that would start next year.

“We’ve been working on this thing for a while. We’re definitely as close as we’ve been throughout the whole process, but I wouldn’t say it’s done,” Musgrove said after the Padres beat the Minnesota Twins 10-1 Friday night.

Two people with knowledge of the deal said before the game it should be finalized in the next few days. The people spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because the deal isn’t completed.

Musgrove said his agent has “made it easy on me” by taking the brunt of the negotiations during the season, “and then we talk at night and we go over what the options are, what it looks like, what the numbers would look like if we get there, is that going to do it, is it not going to do it?

“It’s been relatively easy. It’s been tiring,” Musgrove added. “I’m going to continue to go over it and stuff. Talking about it constantly has gotten a little tiring, but I’ve been excited about the whole thing. The better I pitch, the better position I put myself in. If a deal comes along the way, even better.”

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 30, 2022 at 09:23 AM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: joe musgrove, padres

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: July 30, 2022 at 06:09 PM (#6089014)
Hmmm ... he might be leaving a bit of money on the table but it seems to be in the neighborhood and the 5th year is nice (through age 34). For 2019-22 he's been durable, 115 ERA+ with the FIP to match, 8 WAR, 4 WAA, about 3 WAR per full season. Some rough sims from 2021-22 FAs and their 2018-21 numbers:

Guasman 5/$110, 111 ERA+, 9 WAR, through 35
Ray 5/$115, 112 ERA+, 9 WAR, 1 CYA, through 34
ERod 5/$77, 114 ERA+, 10 WAR, through 33, no 2020
Rodon 2/$44, 121 ERA+, 7 WAR, hurt a lot, through 30 with an opt-out
Stroman 3/$71, 116 ERA+, 7.5 WAR, missed half of 2018 and sat out 2020, through 33

ERod looked like the bargain but has been hurt and pitched terribly this year. I'm not sure why Stroman couldn't get a 4th year but he does have the highest AAV. I'm impressed nobody went overboard on Ray after his 2021.

So 5/$100 is close enough for both parties, certainly if Musgrove likes it in SD, no reason to risk something popping in the last 2 months or no other team offering the 5th year in hopes of maybe $10-15 M more. I recall thinking Musgrove (and the others) were ridiculously light return for Cole but he's become just sort of standard light return in that sort of deal. I have no idea how the Musgrove to the Padres deal is working out for the Pirates but Bednar is a good reliever at least.
   2. McCoy Posted: July 30, 2022 at 07:18 PM (#6089022)
I didn't think teams would even offer 5 year/100 million dollar contracts anymore.

That's basically a be average over the contract contract which I don't know why a team would want that with a long term contract.
   3. Walt Davis Posted: July 31, 2022 at 12:12 AM (#6089045)
As you can see, they're fairly popular for pitchers. It's really a #2 starter (or non-elite #1) type of deal. Given how few innings they pitch these days, 2-3 WAR a year is pretty well above average. Musgrove has averaged about 3 WAR, 1.5 WAA per 180 innings 2019-22.

For some time I've been thinking there must be a formula based on WAA that would more accurately price FA contracts. Something like the first WAR costs about $4M (a good bench player), the second WAR costs about $6 ($10 for an average player), then each WAA is something like $10 (or maybe $8 for the first one and then $10+ for more). I don't know what Musgrove projects to but 1.5 WAA per year might on its own be worth $15 M. And pitchers just don't age in the same way as hitters do.

Anyway, if Schwarber can get 4/$79 (ages 29-32) and Castallanos can get 5/$100 (ages 30-34), Musgrove should be able to get about 5/$100 too. For 2018-21, Castellanos had 8.9 WAR but just 1.7 WAA and per 650 PA just 2.7 WAR. Obviously Castallanos is more likely to give a "full" season of 650 PA than Musgrove is to give you a "full" season of 225 innings. So to maintain Musgrove's WAA you need some average relievers but those don't seem that hard to find or cost all that much. Admittedly, whether giving Castellanos a 5-year contract was a smart idea is another question.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 31, 2022 at 12:15 PM (#6089067)
I didn't think teams would even offer 5 year/100 million dollar contracts anymore.

That's basically a be average over the contract contract which I don't know why a team would want that with a long term contract.


Because they expect him to be above average and give them like 3 WAR per year. Musgrove wants the security, so take lower AAV than he might get on a shorter deal.
   5. Pirate Joe Posted: July 31, 2022 at 09:50 PM (#6089129)
I have no idea how the Musgrove to the Padres deal is working out for the Pirates but Bednar is a good reliever at least.


The best other player they got (so far) has been Endy Rodriguez, who actually came from the Mets (it was a three team trade). He's slashing .295/.390/.533 at A+ this season, mostly as a catcher but he's also played 2B, LF and a few games at 1B.

   6. The Honorable Ardo Posted: July 31, 2022 at 10:18 PM (#6089132)
I'd offer Musgrove 5/$110 on the open market. Both sides stand to gain from this deal if Joe likes his surroundings and support system in San Diego.
   7. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: July 31, 2022 at 11:11 PM (#6089137)
I'd offer Musgrove 5/$110 on the open market. Both sides stand to gain from this deal if Joe likes his surroundings and support system in San Diego.
He is a San Diego native and loves living there so a hometown discount is definitely in play.

I don’t think he would want to play for a team that doesn’t have tank top jerseys anyway.
   8. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: August 01, 2022 at 01:02 AM (#6089142)
He is a San Diego native and loves living there so a hometown discount is definitely in play.


Born in El Cajon, though I would imagine with his current earning power he's a bit closer to the beach around La Jolla; very nice digs if you can afford it.

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