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Monday, June 07, 2021

Report: Trevor Story Not Planning To Re-Sign With Rockies

Trevor Story is widely seen as one of the top trade candidates in baseball, and if the Rockies don’t move him prior to the July 30 trade deadline, they reportedly can’t count on him returning as a free agent for 2022 and beyond.  Story doesn’t plans to re-sign with the Rox when he hits the open market this winter, sources tell Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post.

The two sides hadn’t discussed an extension as of February 23, according to Story, though it isn’t known if any negotiations took place during March or even beyond Opening Day.  That said, given the amount of discussion that would go into working out a long-term deal worth well north of $200MM, the fact that the Rockies had yet to broach the subject even by late February of Story’s walk year could be seen as a sign that the team wasn’t counting on Story sticking around.

Frankly, it would be more surprising if Story did have designs on a return to Denver, considering that the Rockies are struggling through another losing season and seem closer to a rebuild than a return to contention.  Interim GM Bill Schmidt told Saunders and other reporters that the team has been showing some improvement on the field, and felt that the Rockies were just a few clutch hits away from having a much better record than their current 24-36 mark.  Even if Colorado was a few games closer to the second NL wild card slot than its current 10.5-game deficit, however, that still shouldn’t change the equation about how the Rockies seem overdue to reshuffle their roster.

Regardless, it’s clear that the Rockies haven’t publicly thrown in the towel on the 2021 season just yet, as Schmidt said that it’s “not necessarily” the case that Story or Jon Gray would be dealt.  Trade discussion has yet to pick up in general, as Schmidt said that “some clubs have reached out and expressed (interest), if we get to that point.  But there has not really been anything to talk about…There is nothing really to follow up on.”

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 07, 2021 at 01:22 PM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: trevor story

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   1. Tyhand7 Posted: June 07, 2021 at 04:22 PM (#6023018)
IF I was Trevor Story, I would be happy to leave the Rockies and test the market. I dont know how Story is perceived outside of Denver however this is a fast, good fielding SS that can also hit in the middle of a lineup.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: June 07, 2021 at 07:21 PM (#6023056)
Like most SS, guessing on his future value depends a lot on your guess about his future defensive value. He's been excellent so far and most excellent SS age pretty well defensively (barring injury) but if we're talking something like 8/$200-250 then the difference between a +10 SS and a 0 SS is many millions of dollars.

Then there's the eternal Coors question -- 978 OPS with about 6% HR/PA at home, 754 with about 4% HR/PA on the road. That's still worst-case a good defensive SS with a 100 OPS+ but that's not a guy worth "well north of $200M."

And the SS market will be flooded. One of Story's advantages over Javy Baez is his 341 OBP ... but on the road it's just 314 (still better than Javy's 302).

TS 2746 PA, 113 OPS+, +58 Rfield, 23 WAR, 18 oWAR through age 28
JB 2926 PA, 103 OPS+, +62 Rfield, 21 WAR, 15 oWAR through age 28

If (big if) Story's offensive advantage is Coors then those are two players as similar as can be; and even if not, we're talking about roughly half a win per year. I don't know what either guy is looking for or will have to settle for but if one is asking 8/$200 and the other is asking 5/$125 that's a pretty easy decision. For the record, assuming equivalent cost, the objective GM part of my mind prefers Story as I think Javy's offense will fall apart in an instant -- I don't know when that instant will occur but I'd rather not be holding the hot potato.
   3. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: June 07, 2021 at 11:19 PM (#6023123)
Story has been a better player up to this point than Corey Seager who is expected to get around $200m. Story could be a bargain. He could also be Tulowitzki 2.0, of course.
   4. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: June 07, 2021 at 11:25 PM (#6023124)
I wouldn't touch Story with a ten-foot pole. His home-road splits are terrifying.
   5. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: June 07, 2021 at 11:34 PM (#6023125)
I wouldn't touch Story with a ten-foot pole. His home-road splits are terrifying.


I get what you're saying, but don't most players hit better at home(not to that degree of course)? Also, haven't there been instances(Matt Holiday?) where players have left Coors and hit nearly as well once they settle in elsewhere?
   6. smileyy Posted: June 07, 2021 at 11:37 PM (#6023126)
Does playing at Coors suppress road stats due to being used to e.g., less ball movement from pitchers?
   7. SoSH U at work Posted: June 08, 2021 at 12:01 AM (#6023128)

Does playing at Coors suppress road stats due to being used to e.g., less ball movement from pitchers?


That's the theory. It also can't help that 1/3 of their road games are played in three of the best pitching parks in the league.

   8. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: June 08, 2021 at 12:18 AM (#6023130)
#6 and #7, so needless to say you can't just look at home/road splits and conclude he is what he is. Obviously teams have access to some more granular information outside of the usual batted ball stats that we see like EV, launch angle, barrels, GB/FB/LD, etc. etc.

Just looking at Arenado, he's at 139 OPS+ in St. Louis and has never finished that high before; and IIRC he started slow this year.
   9. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: June 08, 2021 at 12:18 AM (#6023131)
I get what you're saying, but don't most players hit better at home(not to that degree of course)? Also, haven't there been instances(Matt Holiday?) where players have left Coors and hit nearly as well once they settle in elsewhere?
Oh, sure, Story's splits could equalize just fine, but he's going to want a contract commensurate with his Coors performance, and the team that gives it to him is going to regret it for every year he's wearing their jersey. No Rockies player becomes a better offensive player away from Coors, not Holliday, not Larry Walker, not Tulo, not CarGo, and -- I'd be willing to bet -- Story.

EDIT: I would be very surprised if Arenado were an exception.
   10. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 08, 2021 at 12:31 AM (#6023132)
The best way to estimate what Story is likely to do away from Coors is to look at his OPS+, which is pretty consistently in the 120s. His raw numbers will drop some, but the value isn't likely to be much different.
   11. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: June 08, 2021 at 12:45 AM (#6023133)
No Rockies player becomes a better offensive player away from Coors, not Holliday, not Larry Walker, not Tulo, not CarGo, and -- I'd be willing to bet -- Story.


Except for Holliday, those players are notably older than Story would be if traded or if he leaves by free agency. No one else who was good with the Rockies and then left at a comparable age comes to mind, except Holliday. With him, Tom's idea,

The best way to estimate what Story is likely to do away from Coors is to look at his OPS+...


shows Holliday improving in St. Louis, with a 138 OPS+ compared to his 131 with Colorado. Of course, that ensures nothing in either direction for Story.
   12. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: June 08, 2021 at 12:57 AM (#6023134)
No Rockies player becomes a better offensive player away from Coors, not Holliday, not Larry Walker, not Tulo, not CarGo, and -- I'd be willing to bet -- Story.


Players are what they are, it's the conditions at Coors that artificially inflate some of the rate stats whilst they play at home. If a player is in the top 10% of most batted ball stats, he's still going to hit no matter where he plays. Not sure what his expectations are for a long term contract, but if I were his agent, I'd be up front about what to expect. If he's in the top 10% of EV, barrels, LD%, etc. he'll still hit no matter where he goes(I'm too lazy to look up his individual stats compared to the rest of the league to see exactly where he sits).
This is always a tough one because as we have seen though, some guys actually do pretty well once they leave. The other issue of course is that all the really good hitters who left Coors left when they became FA and of course were closer in age to 30 then 20.

I'm not suggesting he'll be better, I'm suggesting he may not be as "bad" as his current road stats suggest. I think he's a player somewhere in between the home/road splits..and that's what you pay for.
   13. Cooper Nielson Posted: June 08, 2021 at 01:08 AM (#6023135)
No Rockies player becomes a better offensive player away from Coors, not Holliday, not Larry Walker, not Tulo, not CarGo, and -- I'd be willing to bet -- Story.

Andres Galarraga, in his late 30s, went from a .974 OPS in 1996 with the Rockies to a .991 OPS in 1997 with the Braves. His OPS+ jumped from an already very good 131 to a career-best 157.

I think every time a star player from the Rockies changes teams, our knee-jerk reaction is to say, "Watch out, he's a Coors Field illusion!" But actually, if you adjust for age and some basic park effects (which certainly every front office is doing these days), the players hit about as well as they did in Denver. Some are better, some are worse, but I don't think the ratio is particularly worse than it is for any other team. For every Tulowitzki, there's a LeMahieu.
   14. SoSH U at work Posted: June 08, 2021 at 01:26 AM (#6023136)
No Rockies player becomes a better offensive player away from Coors, not Holliday, not Larry Walker, not Tulo, not CarGo, and -- I'd be willing to bet -- Story.


Better as an actual offensive player, or post better numbers? Juan Pierre's highest OPS was put up during his three years in Denver. Those were also his worst years in terms of OPS+.

   15. dejarouehg Posted: June 08, 2021 at 07:25 AM (#6023142)
Andres Galarraga, in his late 30s, went from a .974 OPS in 1996 with the Rockies to a .991 OPS in 1997 with the Braves. His OPS+ jumped from an already very good 131 to a career-best 157.


Hmmmmmm...... I wonder what else might have been happening throughout baseball at this time that might have assisted players in thriving in their late 30's??????

   16. Cooper Nielson Posted: June 08, 2021 at 07:39 AM (#6023144)
Hmmmmmm...... I wonder what else might have been happening throughout baseball at this time that might have assisted players in thriving in their late 30's??????

Cancer?

Come on, now.
   17. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: June 08, 2021 at 08:22 AM (#6023146)
No Rockies player becomes a better offensive player away from Coors, not Holliday, not Larry Walker, not Tulo, not CarGo, and -- I'd be willing to bet -- Story.


Despite sucking this year DJ LeMahieu just went from a career 92 OPS+ with the Rockies to 133+ with the Yankees. Maybe he's just fluky, but he is a counterpoint to your argument.
   18. Ron J Posted: June 08, 2021 at 09:58 AM (#6023160)
#13 and others. I know years ago I was talking about this with people who did projections and at that point nobody could get better results by splitting rocky home and road totals.

Now projections have a pretty large error bar at the best of times but to my knowledge the best we can do is take story's overall numbers and adjust for age.
   19. The Duke Posted: June 08, 2021 at 02:00 PM (#6023193)
A lot of Rockies go elsewhere after they are already on the curve down. Arenado is proving the home-road thing is a mirage.
   20. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: June 08, 2021 at 02:09 PM (#6023198)
Despite sucking this year DJ LeMahieu just went from a career 92 OPS+ with the Rockies to 133+ with the Yankees. Maybe he's just fluky, but he is a counterpoint to your argument.
I think there are a lot of one-season counterpoints, but Story's not going to be signing for one season. So, he's going to be moving from Coors to somewhere else, he's going to be in decline, and he's going to want to be paid based off his Coors numbers. All of those things are red flags.
   21. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: June 08, 2021 at 04:32 PM (#6023217)
While the Rockies might want to keep Story at some price point, this is a team going nowhere right now, playing .400 ball in a division with three teams playing at a high level. They have no starting position players 25 or under; their offense lacks any real star or anchor around which to build a team; and the pitching is OK. Wouldn't they be better off trading Story to a team trying to win this year, get what they can back, and plan for the future? It is hard to see Story being star-salary good, say, three years from now.
   22. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: June 08, 2021 at 05:02 PM (#6023224)
I think there are a lot of one-season counterpoints, but Story's not going to be signing for one season. So, he's going to be moving from Coors to somewhere else, he's going to be in decline, and he's going to want to be paid based off his Coors numbers. All of those things are red flags.


How is wanting to get paid a lot a red flag? If you don't believe the park adjusted offensive numbers, offer less.

Agree that he looks to be in decline, though. His sprint speeds are down the past two years and his fielding now rates as just average per statcast. Given his age and fairly pedestrian numbers so far this year, I would be surprised to see him get more than 3 years.
   23. Cooper Nielson Posted: June 09, 2021 at 12:51 AM (#6023317)
and he's going to want to be paid based off his Coors numbers

I dunno, Coors Field has been around a long time and this home-road phenomenon is not exactly a secret. It's why Todd Helton's not in the Hall of Fame and why it took 10 years for Larry Walker to get in.

I'm pretty sure every GM in baseball, at minimum, is going to do park adjustments. More likely they'll be looking at the advanced metrics Hugh Jorgan mentions in #12. These guys aren't just looking at the backs of baseball cards.

Story might very well underperform his next contract, but it won't be because the GM was fooled by his Coors numbers.

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