Good.

IMO, Greinke can use some volume to his career numbers, to better buttress his HoF credentials (he's not really adding much value, but volume can be good in and of itself).

I don’t think he needs anything else for the Hall. He should go in fairly quick.

"Bringing It All Back Home" - He Belongs to ... Royals Fans

He's got everything he needs,
He's an artist, he don't look back.
He's got everything he needs,
He's an artist, he don't look back.
He can take the dark out of the night time
And paint the corner black.

I thought he had a chance at 300 wins after 2019; 18 wins; really good ERA +; playing for a great team. Then 2020, short season; serviceable in 2021 and 2022; picked up 18 wins in 3 years.
Still, he's # 2 in wins among active pitchers; has a chance at 3K strikeouts; what more volume would you have?
Verlander at age 40 needs 56 wins for 300
Kershaw will be 35 needs a little over a 100 wins, but he's been injured so much the last few years, it doesn't look like he has any chance at getting 300. Accordingly, given how terrible my predictions are, Kershaw will regain health and get 300 w's.

76.5 bWAR, 223 wins, 1 or 2 years from 3000 k's, 1 Cy Young award, 6 All-Star Games, 6 gold gloves, 2 ERA titles (one in each league), just 14 black ink which hurts, but overall his resume looks very good. He'd obviously go in as a Royal, and coming back at the end for a few years there when he could've gone elsewhere adds to his story value (very important to writers voting). Funny thing - he has a 600+ winning percentage everywhere but KC where he is sub 500 despite a 115 ERA+.

Hopefully he has a strong year (10+ wins and 100+ K's) and comes back for more in 2024.

Greinke - - 137 IP, 2.6BWAR--$8mil
Jansen - -- 64 IP, .9 BWAR - $16mil

It's all pitching. What am I missing? And Greinke is a heck of lot more entertaining to watch. The Red Sox suck, that is all.

t's all pitching. What am I missing? And Greinke is a heck of lot more entertaining to watch. The Red Sox suck, that is all.

The one positive thing that could be said here, is maybe Greinke took an under-market deal to finish his career in the low-pressure environs of K.C.

The other thing that could be said is that all those Ivy League guys running front offices spend a lot more of their brainpower figuring out how to cover their behinds than actually running a baseball team, or the sport, for that matter.

Greinke - - 137 IP, 2.6BWAR--$8mil
Jansen - -- 64 IP, .9 BWAR - $16mil

It's all pitching. What am I missing? And Greinke is a heck of lot more entertaining to watch. The Red Sox suck, that is all.

Saves:
Jansen - 41
Greinke - 0

ERA:
Jansen - 3.38
Greinke - 3.68

Wins:
Jansen - 5
Greinke - 4

K's:
Jansen - 85
Greinke - 73

Betcha didn't expect Jansen to have more wins and strikeouts than Greinke last year, did you? ;-)

IMO, Greinke can use some volume to his career numbers, to better buttress his HoF credentials (he's not really adding much value, but volume can be good in and of itself).

...

Hopefully he has a strong year (10+ wins and 100+ K's) and comes back for more in 2024.

I'm among those who think Greinke has already punched his ticket to the HOF, but he's "only" 39 and reasonably healthy so it will be interesting to see how much he can add to his career numbers, and how much he can rise in the rankings.

At 223 wins, he's currently tied for 73rd. Here's who he could pass this year (though it seems unlikely he'll get more than 10 wins, given his team and modern usage):

62T. Clark Griffith, Waite Hoyt - 237
64. Whitey Ford - 236
65. Tommy Bond - 234
66. Charlie Buffinton - 233
67T. Sad Sam Jones, Luis Tiant, Will White - 229
70. George Mullin - 228
71T. Jim Bunning, Catfish Hunter - 224

His 2882 strikeouts are currently 20th, but he's 202 behind John Smoltz in 19th, and he doesn't strike out batters anymore so that's at least two years away.

His 71.5 pitching bWAR puts him 32nd at 71.5. Clayton Kershaw is right ahead of him at 73.1 and Max Scherzer is right behind him at 70.7 -- so even if he manages positive WAR this year, he could move down in the rankings. However, he has a shot at passing Old Hoss Radbourn (73.2) and Tom Glavine (73.9), and also Jim McCormick (76.0) if he has a really good year. Everyone above McCormick is a Hall of Famer, or kept out for non-baseball reasons.

His overall 76.5 bWAR (Greinke is a good hitter and fielder) is 75th overall, ahead of Kershaw, and he could potentially pass some very interesting names this year:

63. Tom Glavine - 80.7
64. Jeff Bagwell - 79.9
65. Pete Rose - 79.6
66. Curt Schilling - 79.5
67. Joe DiMaggio - 79.2
68. Dan Brouthers - 78.7
69. Brooks Robinson - 78.5
70. Arky Vaughn - 78.0
71T. Luke Appling - 77.6 (Justin Verlander is tied with Appling but I assume he'll stay ahead of Greinke)
73. Robin Yount - 77.4
74. Ozzie Smith - 76.9

Nothing else would complete the Hall better, in my opinion. He needs to get inside quite quickly.
redactle

Not quite a "WTF Hall of Famer," considering his pedigree and huge 2009, but through age 30 he looked like he was bound for the HOVG if all went well.

Baseball is better with this dude.

The one positive thing that could be said here, is maybe Greinke took an under-market deal to finish his career in the low-pressure environs of K.C.

He got better offers elsewhere and that's one of the reasons this took so long, he wanted the Royals to up their offer, but his preference was to stay in KC.

The other thing that could be said is that all those Ivy League guys running front offices spend a lot more of their brainpower figuring out how to cover their behinds than actually running a baseball team, or the sport, for that matter.

One of the dumbest ideas in baseball is that it's somehow worse to lose a game in the 9th inning than in the first 5. All innings count the same, and runs count the same. Everything else is CYA, as you say.

Greinke is a worthy HOFer, but there are some things that could keep him out:

1. Voters not giving respect since he’ll be nowhere close to 300 wins. They did need 6 tries to put in Mussina
2. Get busted for steroids
3. Accusation of doing something to cheat while with the Astros
4. Offending people with political social media posts
5. Keep coming back and delaying the day he’s eligible for election

That's a lot of guacamole!


People who watch him regularly, how is he doing this with that shrinking K rate?

14, in re: 1, that's precisely why I think he can only benefit from extra volume in his numbers (Greinke's peak case is pretty good, since his WAR 7 and JAWS scores are both above average. But an extra 100-125 innings, 80 Ks and 8 to 10 wins in 2023 will only help him get inducted faster).

Things can change, but right now, Verlander looks like he will beat Greinke on the big 4 HoF counting stats (he's already above him in Wins, WAR and Ks, and I would think Verlander will ultimately end up with more innings than Greinke).

Greinke, however, will be either the 2nd, 3rd or 4th best pitcher of his generation on those big 4 HoF counting stats (Greinke will probably end up as 2nd in Wins, 4th in WAR, 4th in Ks and 2nd in innings of his generation, which for my purposes would include Verlander, Scherzer and Kershaw, all of which should be inducted into Cooperstown).

which for my purposes would include Verlander, Scherzer and Kershaw, all of which should be inducted into Cooperstown).

All will be inducted. Verlander and Kershaw are first-ballot locks. Scherzer is close and Greinke will require no more than three ballots. I'd bet all of them go in first ballot, unless they happen to retire at once.

The only thing Roy Halladay has on any of them is an early death, and he sailed in first ballot.

Verlander and Kershaw are first-ballot locks. Scherzer is close

While his career is a little short on bulk, I think Scherzer's already a first-ballot lock even if he were hit by the proverbial bus today. Everyone with 3 Cy Young Awards (except Clemens and the active guys) has been elected on the first ballot, usually with a percentage in the high 90s.

The only thing Roy Halladay has on any of them is an early death, and he sailed in first ballot.

I'll agree with this on all but Greinke. I don't think Greinke has ever had a period where he's been commonly regarded as the best pitcher in baseball; the others on the list all have. Not saying that's justified, but for instance, in Cy Young shares, Verlander, Scherzer, and Kershaw are all in the top 6; Halladay is 11th, and I believe was still in the top 10 when he was elected. Greinke is 21st - still very good, but behind guys like Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez and David Price.

Greinke should still get in, but it wouldn't shock me if he waits a few years, especially if the other listed aces retire sequentially shortly after he does.

#14 - re: Greinke vs Mussina

Barring drastic changes to pitcher usage, no pitcher will ever get 300 wins again (and very few will even reach 200), so not even the most old school, traditionalist writers are going to use that as the standard going forward (if they ever did). Moose had 4 contemporaries with 300 wins - 2 over 350 - so his 270 might have looked a little light in comparison for some voters. Greinke also has some additional advantages in that he'll be debuting on much less stacked ballots, and he has a CYA and 2 ERA titles, so maybe he'll be seen as a little more dominant at his peak and a little less "compiler-ish" than Mussina was.

I've always found Greinke's career interesting in that he's pitched like a borderline HOFer for most of his career, but with 2 epic seasons 6 years apart thrown into the mix. It makes him a bit hard to rate on an all time list. Basically just add 2 prime Pedro or Maddux seasons to Tim Hudson's career and that's Greinke.

Yaz is a bit like that too. He's got 96.5 career WAR, but a full third of that came in just 3 massive seasons - 1967 (12.5), 1968 (10.5), and 1970 (9.5). The rest of his career he put up a borderline 64 WAR in 20 years. He's basically Dave Winfield or Andre Dawson with 3 peak Mays/Bonds/Trout seasons tacked on. Again, a hard player to rate historically.

Too lazy to look it up, but will Greinke be the first HOF starting pitcher to never win 20 games?

20, Verlander has a reasonable chance at 300.

#23 - Maybe, but even he pitched half his career in a different era before the bottom really fell out on starters innings. Look at his top IP totals - 251, 240, 238, 227, 224, 223, etc. We're never going to see that again from a pitcher who debuted post 2010. There will occasionally be a flukish 220 IP season like Alcantrara last year, but even the top workhorses in the game don't regularly get more than 200-205 anymore. Verlander is basically the last shot at another 300 game winner.

Raise your hand if you, at any point prior to checking the numbers, thought that Zach Greinke might retire with more WAR than Joe Dimaggio.

Too bad he's not allowed to hit anymore, but I'll always love him for his eephus pitch.

24, I agree that MLB would have to change materially for another starter after Verlander to have a chance at 300 wins.

#21 - I was doing a dorky project recently that required me to look at the season-by-season WAR of every HOFer, that this is true for the great majority of them; one or two really big seasons within a (usually) long career of being very good. It seems like a HOFer needs those to *feel* like a HOFer - or to be a friend of Frankie Frisch or Joe Morgan.

I want Greinke to do one of three things:

1. Inspired/annoyed by the fact shown in #6, ht becomes a closer this year and sets the record for most saves in a season (note: the Royals might not win that many games!)

2. In the most obvious idea ever, Greinke (who else) masters the knuckler and goes Niekro on us. 2300 innings and 140 wins later ....

3. He combines 1 and 2 and becomes the next Wilhelm, throws 120 innings of relief every year and, topping Wilhelm, takes the field at 50.

On HoF, the most obvious recent comps it seems to me are Smoltz and Schilling -- basically the same IP, same wins. He has the CYA that Schilling doesn't, Smoltz has the closer years that Greinke doesn't; they've got 3000 Ks and he's not quite there yet. In bWAR, he's right between them. Smoltz of course was first ballot, the closer turn might have cinched that; Schilling was gonna slog one way or the other but would have made it if not a jerk. It could end for any of them tomorrow but right now it looks like Greinke will hit the ballot before VSK which helps his chances of 1st ballot but, if he's not super-close on the first ballot, he'll probably get held up for a few years as they elect those 3 then might get stuck for a year or two as the residual "clearly no better than #4 of his generation" washes off.

The nightmare is probably something like:

year 1: debut at 60%, normally very promising
year 2: Verlander 1st ballot, Greinke drops to 50%
year 3: Greinke claws back to 58%
year 4: Scherzer 1st ballot, Greinke drops to 50% again
year 5: 58%
year 6: 64%
year 7: Kershaw 1st ballot, Greinke drops to 54%

and 3 years to move 21% (certainly doeable) with the possibility of a Cole or somebody entering the ballot as a guaranteed 1st ballot guy (which I think would take some work from Cole). Seems to me it's possible Greinke will be the last real pitcher inducted by the writers (in terms of year of induction).

I'll agree with this on all but Greinke. I don't think Greinke has ever had a period where he's been commonly regarded as the best pitcher in baseball; the others on the list all have. Not saying that's justified, but for instance, in Cy Young shares, Verlander, Scherzer, and Kershaw are all in the top 6; Halladay is 11th, and I believe was still in the top 10 when he was elected. Greinke is 21st - still very good, but behind guys like Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez and David Price.

Greinke should still get in, but it wouldn't shock me if he waits a few years, especially if the other listed aces retire sequentially shortly after he does.

How much does that change if Greinke gets a 2nd CY in 2015? Everyone seems to agree Santana had the ability, just didn't have enough of a career. Are there others out of the HOF with 2 CY's?

Are there others out of the HOF with 2 CY's?

Lincecum.

Joe Morgan.

Nearly half of Morgan's 100 career WAR came in 5 seasons -- consecutive though. (I don't recall Morgan as a 100 WAR guy before, anybody know if there was a recent tweak that pushed him over?)

Carew had a 5-year 39 WAR run; his other 7200 PA was about 42 WAR. 7200 PA and 42 WAR is roughly Zobrist or Brett Gardner, a good bit worse than Dustin Pedroia (52 WAR in 6800 PA). The difference between Alomar and Knoblauch is that from 31-33, Alomar had 20 WAR (his best 3-year run) while Knoblauch had roughly zero. I suppose on the other hand that half of Knoblauch's career WAR came in his 3 big seasons.

Billy Williams had 6-7 WAR seasons at 25, 27, 32 and 34.

#29-30 - Also Bret Saberhagen and Denny McLain.

McLain

Saberhagen should be in. Lincecum and McLain, no.

I'm among those who think Greinke has already punched his ticket to the HOF

4th best SP of your cohort should be automatic. That doesn't even fill out a rotation. The better question is who the 5th SP of this cohort is. Cole Hamels is going to get elected to the Hall of Merit but probably not the Hall of Fame.

#29-30 - Also Bret Saberhagen and Denny McLain.

And one day, Corey Kluber.

#35 - Does CC Sabathia count as the same "cohort"? He debuted just 3 years before Greinke (who debuted 4 years before Kershaw and Scherzer).

And one day, Corey Kluber.

Actually, with the amazing work Boston does with pitchers, I would think he's easily in line for his 3rd CY this year.

How much does that change if Greinke gets a 2nd CY in 2015?

If you swap his share of the 2015 vote with Arrieta's, he only goes up by 0.1 CY shares and moves into 19th. The real issue with Greinke's total isn't the lack of a second win, it's the lack of good down-ballot finishes beyond that. The 3-Cy trio have, respectively, 3 2nds and 1 3rd (Verlander), 2 and 1 (Kershaw), and 1 and 2 (Scherzer). If you give Greinke the 2015 award, his only other significant appearance in the Cy voting is 4th in 2017. Which more or less reflects his position on the WAR leaderboard; he finished first in his leagues in '09 and '15, but never higher than 4th otherwise (and only higher than 9th in two non-leading seasons).

Again, clear Hall of Famer and I'm not arguing otherwise. But his peak/prime is a step behind the others in the group.

Even if they don't induct Hamels (and honestly, I probably wouldn't either), 5 HOF starters (Sabathia, Greinke, Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer) to debut in an 8 season span (2001-2008) doesn't seem like an abnormally low number. And you can go back a few years earlier and add Halladay (1998), which makes it 6 HOF starters in 11 seasons (1998-2008), even if Hudson (1999) and Buehrle (2000) never get the call.

Compare that to 1971-1983 when exactly zero 60 WAR pitchers debuted and only one sub-par HOF starter (Morris), and the 2000's don't look like a historically weak era for pitching at all*.

* Position players on the other hand...

Compare that to 1971-1983 when exactly zero 60 WAR pitchers debuted

Rick Reuschel 1972, Eckersley 1975

Borderline just below 60 WAR 1971-1983: Tanana 1973, Stieb 1979

1980: Fernando Valenzuela. I know, only 41 WAR. But narrative!

Other pitchers I can think of that debuted in that timeframe or close to it:

Burt Hooton (1971): 35.6
Jerry Reuss (1969): 35.1 I was sure last time I checked that Reuss >> Hooton, which was conventional wisdom as well. Wonder what has changed, if any.
John Candelaria: 41.9
Frank Tanana (1973): 57.1, more WAR than I thought.
Scott McGregor(1976): 20.2
Mike Flanagan(1975): 25.5
Dave Stewart (1978): 26.5
Bob Welch (1978): 43.7
Rick Rhoden (1975): 35.4
Dave Righetti (1978): 21.3
Ron Guidry (1975): 47.8
Mario Soto (1977): 25.7

I've always found Greinke's career interesting in that he's pitched like a borderline HOFer for most of his career, but with 2 epic seasons 6 years apart thrown into the mix. It makes him a bit hard to rate on an all time list. Basically just add 2 prime Pedro or Maddux seasons to Tim Hudson's career and that's Greinke.

Yaz is a bit like that too. He's got 96.5 career WAR, but a full third of that came in just 3 massive seasons - 1967 (12.5), 1968 (10.5), and 1970 (9.5). The rest of his career he put up a borderline 64 WAR in 20 years. He's basically Dave Winfield or Andre Dawson with 3 peak Mays/Bonds/Trout seasons tacked on. Again, a hard player to rate historically.

I like the analogy! I think it's harder to rate pitchers as the role has changed so much over time (just look at the discussion here), but I think it's easier to do with position players like Yaz. Just calling out the rest of his career as "borderline 64 WAR" sells him short, I think. It's not fair to simply extract his peak from his prime, and career, and say he's more like Winfield or Dawson. He does have those peak seasons, and they come in an extended prime. He is not good as a rookie, but he's much better at 22. From 23 to 34, a 12 year prime, he's great almost every year. The only off season is 1972 and that's due to injury, not poor performance. He has black ink in 12 different counting stats in 6 different seasons to go along with black ink in 19 rate stats in 5 different seasons (from 3 batting titles, old school, to 4 OPS+ titles for more SABR-like stats). Overall a 145 OPS+ in 7754 PA's. On the WAR side it loves his defense, and you can look at 1962-1973 for a 12 year prime averaging 6.3 WAR per season and totaling 75.4, or just stick with the same period of 1963-1974 and it's still 6.2 and 74.8. At that point he's already in his mid-30's but he's still a good /average player for the next 5 years with one more big season of 5 WAR at 37. That's not a borderline HOF by any means, and he ranks 4th by JAWS for LF for good reason.

Raise your hand if you, at any point prior to checking the numbers, thought that Zach Greinke might retire with more WAR than Joe Dimaggio.

Not raising my hand, but let's give Joe D his WAR War credit and say he really should be more like 95 than 80.

#41 - Welp, missed Reuschel! And I meant to say STARTERS rather than PITCHERS deliberately to exclude Eck. So change that to zero 60 WAR starters debuting from 1973-1983 and the basic point stands! ;-)

Didn't see an answer to my #22 yet, but no starting pitcher has ever been elected to the HOF without at least one 20 win season, correct?

Edit: Double post

Didn't see an answer to my #22 yet, but no starting pitcher has ever been elected to the HOF without at least one 20 win season, correct?

I don't think so. Moose was probably the closest.

Looks like Greinke is already 3rd all time in wins for a non 20 game winner, behind only Dennis Martinez (245) and Frank Tanana (240)*

* Just in case you were wondering what this has to do with Frank Tanana

I don't think Greinke is moving the HOF needle very much these days, but he's still a lot of fun to watch.

Didn't see an answer to my #22 yet, but no starting pitcher has ever been elected to the HOF without at least one 20 win season, correct?

Satchel Paige is the only one, and he's obviously a special case.

Running a query, though, I ran across Bobby Wallace, who won 12 games in 1895 before converting to shortstop and third base. Second highest seasonal win total (to Ruth, obviously) for a player inducted as a position player.