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Monday, January 11, 2021

Rob Manfred: MLB teams should plan for spring training to start on time, full 162-game season to be played

Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred informed clubs Monday that they should be preparing for spring training to start on time in February and to plan on a full 162-game season being played, three people with direct knowledge of the conference call told USA TODAY Sports.

The people spoke only on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

Major League Baseball was hoping to delay the season by at least a month to provide more time for players and fans to receive COVID-19 vaccinations, enabling fans to get back into ballparks earlier. But the Major League Baseball Players Association vigorously fought it.

MLB does not have the legal right to unilaterally delay the start of the season without approval from the union because of the collective bargaining agreement, and the union made it clear it wouldn’t accept anything less than 100% pay for the season.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 11, 2021 at 07:52 PM | 57 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: rob manfred

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: January 11, 2021 at 08:30 PM (#5999124)
While maybe you don't have to make the decision right this second and/or maybe this is just negoatiation brinksmanship, I disagree with the union here. Barring a miracle in the next few weeks, it's irresponsible to hold spring training and unlikely that stadiums will be allowed to operate at full capacity when the season does start. I'm more anti-billionaire than most but even I know that if fans can't show up, there has to be some accommodation.
   2. Jack Sommers Posted: January 11, 2021 at 10:46 PM (#5999153)
7 Day moving average

Deaths per day, 7 Day moving average
Arizona 154
Florida 141

Cases per day, 7 day moving average
Arizona: 9,429
Florida: 15,985

Current Active Cases
Arizona: 531,482
Florida: 692,819

SOURCE: WORLD METERS

ARIZONA
FLORIDA
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 11, 2021 at 10:51 PM (#5999158)
Assuming the players and staff are vaccinated, I don't see why Spring training w/o fans isn't totally feasible.

By May, vaccination should be well advanced, so if they play 15-20 games at 30% capacity, that should be fine. April games rarely draw big crowds anyway.
   4. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 11, 2021 at 10:53 PM (#5999160)
Assuming the players and staff are vaccinated, I don't see why Spring training w/o fans isn't totally feasible.


And why would you assume that? Other than the usual American answer, which is that rich people get even the most basic #### before anybody else.
   5. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 11, 2021 at 11:11 PM (#5999164)
And why not? This is a small number of people who provide entertainment to millions of people. Giving them early vaccines seems like a great return on investment.
   6. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: January 11, 2021 at 11:16 PM (#5999165)
By May, vaccination should be well advanced...


After one month less than 3% of the US population has received the first dose. Whether you meant the beginning of May or the end, I'm not as sanguine. On the distribution front, so far Operation Warp Speed has been more of a casual stroll.
   7. Ron J Posted: January 11, 2021 at 11:58 PM (#5999170)
Same situation in Canada. There's an online app that estimates when you're likely to be vaccinated. I'm 65 (but with no special health issues, so third wave) and the earliest estimate is May.

Israel apparently has done a great job but it's the only success story I'm aware of.
   8. base ball chick Posted: January 12, 2021 at 12:07 AM (#5999174)
Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: January 11, 2021 at 11:16 PM (#5999165)

By May, vaccination should be well advanced...



After one month less than 3% of the US population has received the first dose


- and with all the morons refusing vaccines we ain't never gonna get no herd immunity. but you betcher sweetass that Husband is gonna get vaccinated and then i will first opportunity. if that vaccine is good enough for the rich White folks it is good enough for us
   9. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: January 12, 2021 at 12:09 AM (#5999175)
For simplicity of math, to get every American the first vaccination by May 1st would mean about 3M per day. Even ignoring vaccine supply, I have no idea if that's logistically possible in terms of locations for administration, administrators/other staff, and things like the 15-minute wait that's been added post-dosage to ensure no allergic reaction.
   10. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: January 12, 2021 at 12:42 AM (#5999177)
Israel apparently has done a great job but it's the only success story I'm aware of.


These numbers are listed today and are the top 10 countries in vaccinations per 100 people.

Israel: 21.38
UAE: 11.8
Bahrain: 5.44
United Kingdom: 3.94
US: 2.72
Denmark: 2.0
Iceland: 1.43
Italy: 1.16
Slovenia: 0.99
Spain: 0.87

11. Canada: 0.85

I initially found numbers from a week ago, and the per-100 rate for many countries has gone up by about 50–100+%. For example, a week ago Israel was at 14/100 and Canada about 0.35/100. So some places are definitely getting better, whether it's working out the logistical kinks, getting more vaccines on hand, or both.
   11. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: January 12, 2021 at 08:16 AM (#5999187)
For simplicity of math, to get every American the first vaccination by May 1st would mean about 3M per day.

Let's break this down. Assuming it takes five minutes for each shot (including the administrative end; I mean, they're not just gonna line people up and let 'em have it), and that the clinics are open, say, 15 hours a day (6am to 9pm local time). That's only 180 shots per clinic per day, and that's assuming no supply problems. To get to 3M shots/day, you would need more than 16,000 clinics operating at full steam, all day, every day. So, no.

EDIT: the 15-minute wait that's been added post-dosage to ensure no allergic reaction.

OK, make that 50,000 clinics operating at full steam. Oh, hells no.
   12. Ron J Posted: January 12, 2021 at 08:35 AM (#5999188)
#11 And yet Israel shows us what's possible. Not sure why they're doing so much better than other places. I'm guessing that it's in no small part the national organization and smaller distances involved.
   13. Paul d mobile Posted: January 12, 2021 at 09:10 AM (#5999194)
There's no chance Toronto is playing at home in April. So I guess they'll play their games in Florida, at their spring training location. (Save the players some money on taxes I guess).
   14. McCoy Posted: January 12, 2021 at 09:18 AM (#5999197)
Um, you can have more than one person administering the shots.
   15. Paul d mobile Posted: January 12, 2021 at 09:20 AM (#5999199)
Having been tested for COVID a few times, I don't know why you wouldn't be able to deliver the same number of vaccines as tests (assuming you have the supply). A shot is quicker than the test
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 12, 2021 at 09:54 AM (#5999205)
And why would you assume that? Other than the usual American answer, which is that rich people get even the most basic #### before anybody else.

Because it's a couple of thousand doses to allow a decent sized industry to function. MLB on-field employees need to do their jobs in person, so they should be higher on the list than all the white collar people and others who can earn their living from home.
   17. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: January 12, 2021 at 10:00 AM (#5999207)
Um, you can have more than one person administering the shots.

That's a good point; it should be "50,000 people giving the shots, all day, every day." Still, that's a lot of people, no? (And you can't have vaccinators working 15 hours a day, so you'd have to at least triple that number. Where are you going to find 150K vaccinators?)

And yet Israel shows us what's possible. Not sure why they're doing so much better than other places. I'm guessing that it's in no small part the national organization and smaller distances involved.

Plus they have Gal Gadot.
   18. jmurph Posted: January 12, 2021 at 10:12 AM (#5999215)
"50,000 people giving the shots, all day, every day." Still, that's a lot of people, no?

No, that does not seem like a lot. Every random Walgreens, CVS, Target, Wal Mart, etc., pharmacy in the country has multiple people qualified to do this, and that's before we get to all of the nurses in doctor's offices all across the country, and that's before we get to the other public health types.

This article, for instance, refers to 200,000 pharmacy employees receiving a training from their association.

EDIT: There are, apparently, 3.8 million RNs in the US, according to google. The number of people qualified to give the vaccine is very clearly not the holdup here.

   19. DL from MN Posted: January 12, 2021 at 10:27 AM (#5999221)
to get every American the first vaccination by May 1st would mean about 3M per day


I don't think they are even planning on vaccinating ages 17 and under until June because the studies involving children won't have results until then.
   20. McCoy Posted: January 12, 2021 at 10:30 AM (#5999223)
Something like 160 million people get a flu shot during flu season in America in a normal year.
   21. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 12, 2021 at 10:53 AM (#5999225)
For simplicity of math, to get every American the first vaccination by May 1st would mean about 3M per day.


I’m not an expert on this by any means, but you don’t really need to get everyone the vaccine — if I had to guess, 20% of the country has already had COVID and should have some immunity. At the current rate, probably another 5-10% are getting infected each month (200-250k confirmed cases per day, and I assume we’re only identifying one out of every 3-5 cases). And you don’t need to get to 100% coverage for herd immunity.

So we probably only need to administer vaccinations 40-50% of the population (we should ultimately vaccinate as many as possible, but that’s probably not necessary for a return to normal life). Ultimately, we’ll know when enough people have immunity (via infection or vaccination) when the new case numbers have petered out. We’re clearly nowhere near that right now but May doesn’t sound crazy to me.
   22. DL from MN Posted: January 12, 2021 at 11:46 AM (#5999235)
USA has about 50 million people over age 65 who are most at risk. There are about 80 million ages 45-64, 112M ages 18-44. Everyone gets vaccinated twice. That's ~520M doses. Assume 15 minutes per dose and we're at 130M hours of work. To get everyone vaccinated in the next 18.5 weeks will require 7M hours of labor per week or roughly 175,000 full time workers. To get 60% vaccinated requires 105,000 workers. There are roughly 88,000 pharmacies in the US. We can almost get it done if each pharmacy dedicates one worker full time to COVID vaccinations.
   23. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 12, 2021 at 11:49 AM (#5999237)
USA has about 50 million people over age 65 who are most at risk. There are about 80 million ages 45-64, 112M ages 18-44. Everyone gets vaccinated twice. That's ~520M doses. Assume 15 minutes per dose and we're at 130M hours of work. To get everyone vaccinated in the next 18.5 weeks will require 7M hours of labor per week or roughly 175,000 full time workers. To get 60% vaccinated requires 105,000 workers. There are roughly 88,000 pharmacies in the US. We can almost get it done if each pharmacy dedicates one worker full time to COVID vaccinations.

What about Dr's office and hospitals?
   24. Ron J Posted: January 12, 2021 at 11:55 AM (#5999241)
22,23 and others. What all this says to me is that the issue is supply chain management. Even the vaccines that don't require extreme cold require cold storage. So you can't just dump a 3 month supply at a lot of places.

Tricky, but the kind of thing the US is normally pretty good at.
   25. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 12, 2021 at 11:58 AM (#5999242)
[22] From what I’ve read, the first dose alone already has 90% efficacy. A second dose brings that up to 95%, but we only really need to administer one to everyone to reach herd immunity. Of course, somewhere around 30-40% of the population is going to refuse vaccinations which is the real obstacle to herd immunity.
   26. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 12, 2021 at 12:03 PM (#5999246)
Of course, somewhere around 30-40% of the population is going to refuse vaccinations which is the real obstacle to herd immunity.

I think that goes way down once people see there are no serious side-effects, and find out which is best. I intend to get vaccinated, but I'm in no rush.
   27. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 12, 2021 at 12:09 PM (#5999248)
#25 and of those who refuse vaccinations, I would guess at least 25% will have gotten infected — probably considerably more assuming some correlation with lack of other precautions. We can get to herd immunity without the refusers. It won’t be perfect (you’ll still have the occasional outbreak like you do with measles, I assume. But those will be localized and be containable.)
   28. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 12, 2021 at 12:12 PM (#5999249)
22,23 and others. What all this says to me is that the issue is supply chain management. Even the vaccines that don't require extreme cold require cold storage. So you can't just dump a 3 month supply at a lot of places.

Tricky, but the kind of thing the US is normally pretty good at.


Management of the vaccination rollout is going to get a lot better in, oh, about eight days.
   29. puck Posted: January 12, 2021 at 01:51 PM (#5999281)
These numbers are listed today and are the top 10 countries in vaccinations per 100 people.


Ha! Suck it, Denmark!
   30. McCoy Posted: January 12, 2021 at 02:05 PM (#5999284)
Only about 151,000 have been fully vaccinated with about 9 million people getting one shot. We're at roughly 2.5%.

Biden wants to do 100 million people fully vaccinated in his first 100 days and his team is telling him it can't be done.
   31. Mayor Blomberg Posted: January 12, 2021 at 02:07 PM (#5999285)
What about Dr's office and hospitals?

And sick people go where?
   32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 12, 2021 at 02:44 PM (#5999296)
And sick people go where?

To the Dr., where they get the vaccines. Millions of people visit the Dr. every week, give the vaccine while they're there.

Hospitals and Drs. office have many, many RNs and phlebotomists, some can vaccinate while other treat patients.
   33. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: January 12, 2021 at 03:01 PM (#5999302)
Here in upstate NY, literally everyone is blaming everyone else for the lack of vaccines: the people are blaming the county, the county is blaming Cuomo, Cuomo is blaming the feds, etc. In my county of 330,000 people, we've been allocated...wait for it...100 shots per day, most of which have magically found their way into the arms of rich people and politicians. So, yeah.

Biden wants to do 100 million people fully vaccinated in his first 100 days and his team is telling him, "Dude, you can't even tie your shoes and avoid drooling all over the Oval Office desk, let alone vaccinate anybody."


Fixed.
   34. Ron J Posted: January 12, 2021 at 03:24 PM (#5999312)
#33 My reaction to your Biden comment is about the same as to Tom's. He's not personally going to be handing out doses. It's all down to the people he appoints and the mandate they're given. There are plenty of people who could do a great job with the rollout. There are a heck of a lot more who can't and it's often tough to identify the people who can do the job in advance.

It's a skillset that probably makes a person a great deal of money at FedEX or the like.
   35. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: January 12, 2021 at 03:48 PM (#5999315)
I read this morning that Israel is on pace to have half its population fully vaccinated by the end of March. That’s a country doing best by rate so far with a total population of 9 million. The US and other countries won’t be largely vaccinated for a while.

   36. tshipman Posted: January 12, 2021 at 04:00 PM (#5999319)
It's remarkably easier to succeed at vaccine distribution when you care about actually doing it.
   37. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: January 12, 2021 at 04:06 PM (#5999320)
If we want to get people vaccinated quickly then we should appeal to everyone’s greed. The federal government should be paying cash bounties to states, health care providers, and individual citizens for every person vaccinated. As soon as there is a significant direct financial reward all the roadblocks will be cleared real fast. If you give people a tax credit of $100 or whatever if you are vaccinated by June or whatever suddenly there will be many more people interested in getting the vaccine.

Trying to distribute things equitably and fairly is noble and logical. However, it is not the best way to get things done ASAP. We should stop pretending that America is good at getting stuff done for reasons other than greed and get on with it.
   38. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: January 12, 2021 at 04:18 PM (#5999322)
If you give people a tax credit of $100 or whatever if you are vaccinated by June or whatever suddenly there will be many more people interested in getting the vaccine.

You don't get it. It's not that people don't WANT to be vaccinated, it's that they CAN'T, because reasons. At the rate my county is getting the vaccine, the heat death of the universe will occur before everybody get one (let alone two!).
   39. Ron J Posted: January 12, 2021 at 04:31 PM (#5999324)
#38 Right. As it stands now, vaccination skepticism is a non-issue.

Don't want to be vaccinated? Next.
   40. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: January 12, 2021 at 04:34 PM (#5999325)
You don't get it. It's not that people don't WANT to be vaccinated, it's that they CAN'T, because reasons. At the rate my county is getting the vaccine, the heat death of the universe will occur before everybody get one (let alone two!).
What don’t I get? There are vaccines sitting unused because there are too many rules and roadblocks slowing distribution to a crawl. Most of these rules are focused on doing things “scientifically”, “fairly”, or “equitably”. That is noble, but misguided. Instead of creating rules just tell states and providers to vaccinate as many people as possible as fast as possible and send a firehouse of cash to incentivize states, providers, and taxpayers to vaccinate people ASAP.
   41. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 12, 2021 at 05:24 PM (#5999338)
Yeah, my parents live in Westchester, my father is a 73-year-old diabetic. New York just made people 65+ eligible for the vaccine today and he was able to get an appointment for...early April. I don't know what the bottleneck is -- this is way outside my area of expertise -- but that strikes me as nuts.

I do have three relatives in Florida (65-75 age group) who all were able to get the first dose of the vaccine last week. One of them had drove 5 hours round trip to get it, though.
   42. DL from MN Posted: January 12, 2021 at 05:32 PM (#5999341)
There are vaccines sitting unused because there are too many rules and roadblocks slowing distribution to a crawl.


I think it's more likely that the contractors have hired the bare minimum of personnel in order to distribute the vaccine in the most profitable manner. There were no incentives for vaccinating quickly which means federal government partners CVS and Walgreens will try to time it so they run out of vaccine the day before the next shipment arrives in order to level load their employees.
   43. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 12, 2021 at 05:48 PM (#5999345)
Don't want to be vaccinated? Next.
Unfortunately, it’s not that easy. Some places that administered about-to-expire vaccine to folks who weren’t on the priority list have been fined. Cuomo has threatened $1M fines for not observing New York’s vaccine priorities, which had the predictable effect of slowing everything down as eligibility is double or triple checked, and more paperwork required. The better practice would be to allow lower priority people to get vaccine that would otherwise be wasted, although there would likely be some abuse. Apparently there are more than a few vaccine skeptics among health care workers and first-responders, so there are issues with no-shows.
   44. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: January 12, 2021 at 06:01 PM (#5999346)
I think it's more likely that the contractors have hired the bare minimum of personnel in order to distribute the vaccine in the most profitable manner. There were no incentives for vaccinating quickly which means federal government partners CVS and Walgreens will try to time it so they run out of vaccine the day before the next shipment arrives in order to level load their employees.
I don’t think there is a single reason for this. The feds have been foolishly holding back millions of doses. States have implemented overly complicated and burdensome rules on who qualifies for vaccination. Providers have little incentive to get as many needles in arms as fast as possible.

We can fix this. Dump the complex rules and incentivize states, providers, and taxpayers with cash.
   45. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: January 12, 2021 at 06:27 PM (#5999350)
New York just made people 65+ eligible for the vaccine today and he was able to get an appointment for...early April.

I do have three relatives in Florida (65-75 age group) who all were able to get the first dose of the vaccine last week.


I'm sure that the fact that NY and FL have different political affiliations is just a coincidence.
   46. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 12, 2021 at 06:30 PM (#5999351)
Getting back to spring training baseball:
The health and safety guidelines will not be surprising to many observers of how outdoor professional sports have been treated for months. For instance, fans will be seated in pods six feet apart, and ballpark entrances will be open on a scheduled basis. Season-ticket holders will be given first access to tickets; as of now only a few teams are selling and processing season tickets, and no ballpark has put single-game tickets on sale.

But the intimacy many fans expect in spring training will be gone in 2021. Fans will not be allowed to view workouts or seek autographs. And in fact there will be a mandated six-feet buffer between players and fans (save the area around the dugouts, where there will be a 12-foot buffer between fans and players). That will take out the first three rows of the grandstand out of play.
I would probably go if I could get vaccinated beforehand, which currently seems a bit iffy for a ‘younger’ senior citizen without other health issues.
   47. Lassus Posted: January 12, 2021 at 06:54 PM (#5999357)
I do have three relatives in Florida (65-75 age group) who all were able to get the first dose of the vaccine last week.

My mom is 77, my stepfather 83, and they've been playing the 1990's GET THE PRINCE AFTERSHOW TICKETS Vaccine Game in Florida for over a week so far.


I'm sure that the fact that NY and FL have different political affiliations is just a coincidence.

- FART NOISE - Shocking, truly.

New York's an admitted disaster so far and Cuomo's fucking the dog; but Florida isn't any kind of beacon either, from multiple reports, despite the bipartisan commentary from OAN news above.
   48. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: January 12, 2021 at 08:44 PM (#5999387)
I'm really glad I couldn't read #47.

Actually, I take back what I said in #45. There's no evidence (that I know of) that red states are any better than blue ones vis. the vaccine. But it's pretty damn frustrating to be (near) the epicenter of a pandemic AND having nobody running the joint have any freakin' idea what they're doing. And all Cuomo does is blame everybody else, whilst picking up his Emmy award for cramming thousands of people into nursing homes/death traps.

Heads should be rolling, but of course they never will.
   49. DL from MN Posted: January 12, 2021 at 10:17 PM (#5999402)
West Virginia is WAY ahead of everyone else because they opted out of the federal government plan.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/01/07/954409347/why-west-virginias-winning-the-race-to-get-covid-19-vaccine-into-arms
   50. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: January 12, 2021 at 10:42 PM (#5999404)
West Virginia is WAY ahead of everyone else because they opted out of the federal government plan.


The Wall Street Journal podcast called The Journal did an episode on this last week. I don't recommend the show in general because it's overly dramatic, but its short episodes sometimes help me know a little something about topics of which I'm ignorant and curious. In short, the WV governor took a different path largely for two reasons, the state having the highest percentage of people in nursing homes/elder care facilities along with the rural nature of the state meaning it has less of the health care infrastructure found in more urbanized areas.

15-Minute Episode Here
   51. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 13, 2021 at 09:34 AM (#5999445)
My parents were able to move their appointment up from April to late February. Progress!
   52. Mayor Blomberg Posted: January 13, 2021 at 01:27 PM (#5999497)
Federal governmente plan and Trump administration are two phrases that shouldn't be used together except to indicate an absence
   53. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 13, 2021 at 05:56 PM (#5999591)
Latest update - parents were able to make an appointment at a hospital one county over for next week.
   54. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: January 13, 2021 at 09:16 PM (#5999638)
My 70+yo folks got their 1st dose in WY this week, as the county had more doses delivered to the county than they do 1st line workers. My wife's 2nd comes this next week. There sure does seem to be premiums placed on batting order of distribution given the supplies don't appear to be scarce at all.
   55. Lassus Posted: January 13, 2021 at 09:20 PM (#5999639)
Well, in my county they added a new location and new appointments on... one day, the 15th, but as I wasn't staring at and refreshing the page every five minutes, I shockingly missed all... four hours of available spots. Whee. Perhaps I should move to Wyoming. Or just drive to Wyoming.
   56. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: January 13, 2021 at 10:09 PM (#5999645)
I do support the 90, 80, 70, 60, ...approach vs trying to administer any mental gymnastics routine to prioritize the right occupations. Seems like a needless impediment, threatening fines, tying up resources verifying qualifications, etc. Seems focus needs to be more shots administered quickly. Easy to screen the fact that your 82, 72, etc. Go, go, go.
   57. Hysterical & Useless Posted: January 18, 2021 at 12:52 PM (#6000282)
By May, vaccination should be well advanced


As of this morning, the information I've seen is that in New York State, 7 million people are eligible to get the vaccine. But the state is receiving only a quarter million doses per week. At that rate, it will take 28 weeks just to get those currently eligible their first dose, forget about the poor sods in the lower-risk groups. I'm sure players, wherever they reside, will be able to get vaccinated, but I don't see how they're going to be able to put many fannies in the seats with vaccination proceeding at that pace.

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