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Saturday, December 24, 2005

Robothal2000: Blue Jays, D-Backs reach tentative deal on Glaus

In return for Glaus, the Diamondbacks are expected to acquire second baseman Orlando Hudson and right-hander Miguel Batista. The Jays also might receive a prospect in the deal.

The Blue Jays now lead the Red Sox 4-3 in 3rd basemen. But the Boston holds a 2-1 lead in burning themselves up.

Darren Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:00 AM | 78 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: arizona, blue jays

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   1. Internet Commenter Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:08 AM (#1792469)
I love this deal.

Byrnes has freed up a ton of payroll, filled a hole at second and added some insurance for the rotation/bullpen. He also fixed that whole logjam thing, too.
   2. Darren Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:11 AM (#1792472)
Does this mean Tracy will start at 3B now? I assume so. Very nice move by Byrnes.
   3. Toolsy McClutch Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:12 AM (#1792475)
Woot! Go Jays go! Division title here we come!
   4. rr Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:13 AM (#1792476)
The Blue Jays apparently are going for it. Good for them.
   5. 1k5v3L Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:13 AM (#1792477)
The Jays also might receive a prospect in the deal.

Might? Weren't the Jays rumored as being interested in Koyie Hill? Not that he's a prospect, but he's really out of a job in Arizona. I wonder if he is the one (one of them?) going to the Jays.

I've said this a couple of times, but Shea should be traded ASAP. His value will never be higher, and he'll never be as good either. THat'll shave off 20 some GIDPs next year. Helps with rallies.

Glaus should DH. All this lip service of him playing 3b is non-sense. He's not better than Koskie defensively, and being the DH might help his knees. Hinske becomes glorified backup at 3b/1b, and DH.

For the Dbacks, I like this trade. I assume Counsell will move to SS, with Cintron playing against LHP, and Hudson at 2b, with occasional start vs. LHP by Andy Green or Easley. Should help the D#.

Batista gives flexibility. He'll probably be a starter in Arizona, but can move to the pen if there are injuries/suckitude there, or when Nippert is ready to claim a rotation job mid-summer.

Best part of this is that Batista AND El Duque could potentially be moved for spare parts (or even prospects) in the summer, when teams get really desperate for pitchers with October magic.

Caveat: still waiting to see who the prospect/suspect from AZ will be...
   6. the guy Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:13 AM (#1792478)
Hudson will be sorely missed here-- what a joy he is to watch!-- but this is another move the Jays had to make. Glaus's health really worries me, but if the Jays weren't gambling, there'd be no chance of getting out of their third-place rut. At least now there is. That's all anyone up here wanted.

Now JP, let's cut salary by getting rid of Koskie and Hinske, not Hillenbrand! If they could manage to hang onto Shea, then they'd really have something.
   7. 1k5v3L Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:15 AM (#1792480)
Assuming the Glaus to TOR deal goes through, AZ's 2006 lineup (so far):

C: Estrada/Snyder
1B: Jackson/Clark
2B: Hudson/Andy Green
SS: Counsell/Cintron
3B: Tracy/Easley
LF: Gonzo
RF: S. Green
CF: Terrero/ ? (DaVanon?)

That's 14 players. Solid backups at all infield positions, where Cintron/A Green can help out at 2b, 3b, ss in a pinch. Easley can help out at 3b, also 1b. Also, A. Green can help in the OF if that's what the team needs for an inning


We then would have 11 pitchers, 5 starters, 6 relievers. That's pretty normal for most teams. The rotation would be

Webb

And 4 other guys from:

Ortiz, El Duque, Batista, Halsey, Vargas, Nippert, Edgar Gonzalez, Gosling, etc.

And that's assuming Byrnes doesn't move some of these guys in other trades. There will be a lot of competition for the pen, where I'm guessing Valverde, Vizcaino and Grimsley might have some security, and three spots will be up for grabs.

Should be interesting...
   8. The Original SJ Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:19 AM (#1792484)
I can't believe Glaus isn't 30 yet, he seems like he has been around a long time.
   9. the guy Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:21 AM (#1792489)
I've said this a couple of times, but Shea should be traded ASAP. His value will never be higher, and he'll never be as good either. THat'll shave off 20 some GIDPs next year. Helps with rallies.


Meh... maybe you're right. If Koskie plays like he can, the difference in production shouldn't be so bad, I guess. But I don't know, the more bats they hold onto the better, and Hillenbrand was the best of a sorry lot last year.
   10. Free Rob Base Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:22 AM (#1792490)
I could be missing something, but I can't see that arizona team winning much more than 70 games, maybe 75 because they are in the NL West. Obviously the long term outlook looks better.
   11. Rough Carrigan Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:26 AM (#1792495)
Doesn't this undo the fielding improvement the Jays gained by adding Overbay? They've dropped their single best infielder, Hudson and put a guy who was lousy last year, Glaus, at another position.
   12. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:37 AM (#1792507)
When Glaus got injuerd with the Angels wasn't on diving on turf in Minnesota and another time diving on turf in Tampa? If so, Toronto is not a good fit.
   13. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:38 AM (#1792509)
If they could manage to hang onto Shea, then they'd really have something.

You better hope that Shea wants to stay, because in the past he has shown that he knows how to get GM's to trade him.
   14. Internet Commenter Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:43 AM (#1792515)
Glaus didn't do much diving in 2005.
   15. shozzlekhan Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:47 AM (#1792524)
What are the chances of Glaus putting up a line like 2000? Heh.

Oof, it hurts losing Hudson. A lot.

Your 2006 Toronto Blue Jays: AJ, BJ, Roy, and Troy. Sounds like a crappy sitcom.
   16. jonm Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:50 AM (#1792527)
I don't get this from the Blue Jays perspective. Why do they need Glaus? Batista and Hudson are unnecessary at this poin, but why get someone like Glaus when you could could get a DH like Thomas or Durazo for nothing?
   17. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:52 AM (#1792530)
Your 2006 Toronto Blue Jays: AJ, BJ, Roy, and Troy. Sounds like a crappy sitcom.

More like a rural-themed boy band. The Backwoods Boys.
   18. Internet Commenter Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:54 AM (#1792535)
HE IS A WORLD SERIES HERO
   19. The Hop-Clop Goes On (psa1) Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:56 AM (#1792540)
I believe the Milwaukee Brewers beat you all.

Bill Hall
Russ Branyan
Jeff Cirillo
Corey Hart
Zach Sorenson

That's five, count 'em, five third basemen, and there's a decent shot all five of them will be on the roster on opening day. (Granted, Hart will be there as backup OF, Sorenson as backup MI.)
   20. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: December 24, 2005 at 01:00 AM (#1792545)
Bill Hall
Russ Branyan
Jeff Cirillo
Corey Hart
Zach Sorenson


Also sound like boy band members. Well, maybe not Bill Hall, but the other ones.
   21. The District Attorney Posted: December 24, 2005 at 01:01 AM (#1792547)
Good deal for both teams, I think. One of the problems the Jays have had improving their team is that, although most everyone in their lineup was ok, no one was really great. Glaus, at least on offense, is that guy who can help the offense move up the ranks (and if his hitting improves going to the easier defensive position a la Thome, then it gets real scary.) And from AZ's perspective, they get salary relief, can really use Hudson, and have places to play all their kids now. Batista is not much of an issue. Jays certainly didn't need him for anything. Not sure how he fits into AZ's rebuilding, but maybe they can trade him midseason. Otherwise, they can just look at him and get fond memories, or ask him to read them poetry.
   22. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 24, 2005 at 01:04 AM (#1792550)
levski would make a lousy GM for the Yanks, Mets, or Red Sox. But he'd do a damned good job running the Blue Jays.

I don't get Blue Jay fans whining that Glaus doesn't fill a need on their team. Like hitting isn't a need on a team that had only three returning players with OPS+ > 100? He's the best hitter on your team. By a lot. Enjoy him, and the games he wins for you.
   23. J. Cross Posted: December 24, 2005 at 01:04 AM (#1792551)
Nice move for the D-Backs. This makes more sense for the Jays if they stick with Koskie at third, let Glaus DH and play Hill at 2nd.
   24. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: December 24, 2005 at 01:20 AM (#1792569)
Zach Sorensen doesn't really count as anything, Brewers fans ...

... anyway, I like this deal for both teams, but now I'm sad that we'll have to face Troy Glaus in nine games or whatever this year ...
   25. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 24, 2005 at 01:23 AM (#1792572)
Well, the Jays took on salary and got worse. That's special. What I don't get is why people think this is a good move for the Jays. They got rid of a decent enough starter and a really good second baseman for a good DH who they're going to stick at third. I really don't see the upside for Glaus that a lot of you do I guess, I certainly don't see him getting back to his 2000 level. They lose on the talent/production end of the trade and on the financial end of the trade. I was on the Jays bandwagon, hoping they could bounce the Sox out of second and they go and do some stupid #### like this. J.P. should go kill himself.
   26. NTNgod Posted: December 24, 2005 at 01:26 AM (#1792575)
<i>Zach Sorensen doesn't really count as anything, Brewers fans ...</o>

He's the obligatory yearly Angels waiver-wire pickup (Wise, Turnbow, Sorenson). Had to fill the quota.
   27. Barca Posted: December 24, 2005 at 01:28 AM (#1792576)
Well, I can safely eliminate the DBacks as Division winners in my predictions.
   28. Toolsy McClutch Posted: December 24, 2005 at 01:42 AM (#1792586)
Welp, Batista has no value imo. He failed as a starter and a reliever. I would have released him if we could have realised full salary relief.

So for me, it's Glaus + 5million for Hudson. Just on it's face, that's a fine deal. The fact that we have too many middle infielders only helps. The fact that there wasn't a real power threat in the whole lineup helps too. The fact that ODawg can be counted on for a gaping hole while on O helps as well. Play the kids up the middle, DH Glaus and unload Shea. If a new home can be found for Hinske, even better.

And I suspect there's another deal in the offing that will pair nicely with this one. I'd really like a decent outfielder, so if Rios needs to go that's ok with me.
   29. the guy Posted: December 24, 2005 at 01:48 AM (#1792589)
Chacon, Glaus rebounded well from shoulder surgery and he was 37-97-.... uh .258. . . but throw in 84 walks and that's exactly the kind of hitter the Jays needed to bring in. He's Schwarzenegger to Hinske's DeVito. And he's only 29. . . They tried going with a lineup that had no legitimate power hitter (a "scary bat" as the great Wilner would say) and it didn't work. Now we should see the kind of numbers out of Wells as we did back when teams preferred to pitch to him rather than watch Delgado step in. Glaus isn't Delgado, but he's a big step up from Hillenbrand in the 4 hole.

Batista is a spare part, so that's no big deal. The AZ fans are going to be thrilled with what they see in Hudson, and it hurts to lose him, but Hill is a better hitter already and could end up being a much better hitter. And his defence is solid. Not nearly as good, but good. I really hope they don't play this guy at third, though.
   30. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 24, 2005 at 02:20 AM (#1792614)
Here are my issues with the deal for the Blue Jays:

Hudson projects as a more valuable player off the bat IMO because he's been the better, healthier player for the last three year. Mgl has also stated (in the other thread) that Hudson projects better.

The Jays had a great pitching/defense team. Sure they're dealing from a strength, but losing O-dawg really takes away from that strength. He is one of the best defensive players in the Majors.

Hudson's weakness, his bat, is fine for 2nd base. It was exactly average for a second baseman last year. I don't see that as a problem at all, especially because he's the kind of player who probably has a career year around the corner because he's an average guy in his late 20s.

Hudson is a team leader and fan favorite. He's easily one of the most entertaining guys in the league to watch play baseball. He was underpaid and young enough to still improve. I don't see why you get rid of him now.

The Jays have a glut at DH/1st/3rd now. Why not trade one of those guys first before you get rid of your most marketable commodity. Or at least trade Hudson for a right fielder, which is something the team probably needs a bit more.

For all of Glaus' power and patience, he posted a .294 EQA last year. Color me unimpressed. I get that the Jays need to add some power and some on base skills. But even if Glaus is healthy, his upside (I'm gonna guess somewhere in the .305-.310 area) seems to unlikely and not high enough to warrant getting rid of Hudson. If he rebounds and posts a .320 EQA in 520 abs, I will happily admit that I was way off on him.

Even if Glaus hits well, he'll lose alot of value if the Jays stick him in the field and could very easily get hurt on the turf.

My impression of the Jay's middle infield guys is not a very good one. Russ Adams doesn't look like a very good hitter to me. I don't know much about him, so I could be way off. I also don't think he looks like a good defensive SS either. And I know alot of primates agree with me, there was a thread about his defensive inadequacies during the season. Aaron Hill is probably a better hitter then anyone in the Jays infield, except for Overbay. He can play SS, he can play third, he can play 2nd. The Jays are in a compete now mode. Why do they want to get rid of good overall production at 2nd and gamble on Adams takes leaps from last year and Koskie regaining his 2003 form? I guess you could argue that each of these guys has a higher upside the Hudson. But I think that it's pretty unlikely.

Glaus is probably the best option the Jays had to add offense, I just think the Jays ended up overpaying in terms of talent to get the bat that they needed. I am a huge O-dawg fan, probably more then is healthy considering I don't even like the Jays. I love watching him play 19 times a year when they play the Yanks, so I'm a bit pissed off by this. But I think he's being sold short right now. Maybe in a team sense (I don't really have a great grasp of the Blue Jays, particurlarly Adams and Hill, so I may be off, way off, here) this trade makes sense. Maybe the desperate need for a big bat makes up for all of what the Jays lose in Hudson. But as far as I can tell, I think the Jays got the short end of the deal.
   31. covelli chris p Posted: December 24, 2005 at 02:35 AM (#1792619)
The Jays have a glut at DH/1st/3rd now.

no they don't. they have 1 guy that you really care about keeping and a bunch of filler. i don't know much about koskie's d, so if he's really good with the glove then he's a good player, but waht to do with hinske and hillendbrand aren't worth losing sleep over.
   32. Darren Posted: December 24, 2005 at 02:36 AM (#1792620)
Nice summary J1F.
   33. Buzzards Bay Posted: December 24, 2005 at 02:56 AM (#1792632)
O dog.. not a game changer..not a season changer..superb complimentary player...Batista... well Batista......Glaus is the Ryun kick for JP...Glaus is the called Bank shot combination for JP.....Wells is a different hitter immediately.....this is a nicely crafted ballclub at heavy bread....they are players..real players in the race for 162 and they have the Total bases throughout the lineup in combination with a nice K/9 to compete in Oct.
   34. Internet Commenter Posted: December 24, 2005 at 03:01 AM (#1792639)
Even if Glaus hits well, he'll lose alot of value if the Jays stick him in the field and could very easily get hurt on the turf.

My guess is that's exactly the reason why Glaus is headed to Toronto - they're the only team that would guarantee him third base.
   35. Snowboy Posted: December 24, 2005 at 03:13 AM (#1792649)
Yeah, great summary J1F/Chacon. I agree completely. In the abstract, Glaus is a good hitter and a good addition. But he plays a position that is already covered. If he comes in to DH, it makes some sense, but if he insists on playing third (rumoured as part of the deal to get him to waive his no-trade), then it's almost a foolish trade.

I suppose I shouldn't be surprised that Riccardi traded Hudson, I don't think he's ever liked/appreciated O-Dawg. Trading a Gold Glove middle infielder who is years from free agency, and adequate with the bat, is a dumb move. Unless they were getting a premium LFer or good cheap young SP. But trading him for ANOTHER corner infielder is just plain dumb. And takes some shine off the signing of AJ Burnett, making the defense worse in front of a ground-baller.

The Jays have a glut at DH/1st/3rd now.

covelli wrote: no they don't. they have 1 guy that you really care about keeping and a bunch of filler. i don't know much about koskie's d, so if he's really good with the glove then he's a good player, but waht to do with hinske and hillendbrand aren't worth losing sleep over.

That's not "filler". What the Brewers have (listed above) is filler. These three are major league ballplayers that the Jays owe $15M next year, $10M in 2007. And they have no where to play. And very few teams that will take them in trade. Who needs a 3B? Who needs a 1B for $5M that can't hit 20 HRs?

More moves to come, obviously. But this trade doesn't work as well for Toronto as it does for Arizona, sweet trade for them.
   36. Daryn Posted: December 24, 2005 at 03:36 AM (#1792661)
I suppose I shouldn't be surprised that Riccardi traded Hudson, I don't think he's ever liked/appreciated O-Dawg.

JP never forgave him for the pimp comment. He's been a dead man walking for years.
   37. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 24, 2005 at 03:53 AM (#1792669)
This is a really good example, I think, of how sabermetric analysis has changed over the years. In 1999, most of us would have looked at the OBP and SLG of Glaus and Hudson, and said "clear win for Toronto; the overvalued 'gold glove' second baseman for an underappreciated slugging third baseman" Now, we're considering it in total baseball terms, and we see that doing so changes our over all evauation.
   38. BTF's left-wing cheering section (formerly_dp) Posted: December 24, 2005 at 04:04 AM (#1792678)
JP never forgave him for the pimp comment. He's been a dead man walking for years.

You're joking, I hope...
   39. Flynn Posted: December 24, 2005 at 04:07 AM (#1792681)
Trading a Gold Glove middle infielder who is years from free agency, and adequate with the bat, is a dumb move

But they also have Aaron Hill. And they needed a power bat.

I think the Jays figure they're going to have more than a good enough pitching staff anyway, so they can afford to plug in Hill, who won't be as good as Hudson, yet'll probably post the same .730 OPS anyway. But they needed the bopper.

I'm not as particularly bothered by this trade as others. The Jays aren't pennypinchers anymore, so they can afford to take on a mediocre contract if it gives them a shot - and it does, IMHO - at catching two deeply flawed teams ahead of them. If the Jays are in a pennant race, they'll sell so many damn tickets that Glaus' contract won't matter.
   40. the guy Posted: December 24, 2005 at 04:46 AM (#1792699)
It's crazy: the Leafs played tonight and sports talk radio in this city is getting flooded with people wanting to talk about the Jays. That's really significant.

The thing about trading Hudson and whether or not it was overpaying is that he's the only commodity that was tradeable for something so good. Like someone said, you're not moving Hillenbrand, Koskie and Sh*tske and winding up with bat like Glaus's. Bottom line: they're a much better team with Hill at second and another genuine hitter in the lineup. I'll miss Hudson a lot, but not if these moves translate to wins. They had to trade McGriff and Fernandez once too. . .

Plus, Hudson is far more expensive than Hill and Adams and much closer to being a free agent, which JP certainly notices. And he's a Gord Ash pick, while the other two were JP's. I hope that doesn't have anything to do with it, but people here seem to think it could.

To whoever asked, Koskie is a good fielder, though, like Glaus, he's a little injury prone to be diving all over the place.

If the Jays are in a pennant race, they'll sell so many damn tickets that Glaus' contract won't matter.

Very true, and this is worrying. Will I still be able to buy a $9 ticket and then sneak down behind the plate?
   41. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 24, 2005 at 05:37 AM (#1792730)
Based on what we know about the deal, it looks like an excellent deal for the Dbacks. Byrnes recognized that Glaus at third was a major defensive liability and that, coupled with his propensity for injury, made him expendable. But rather than dump him at the first possible opportunity (as some GMs might have done), he waited for the offseason to mature until an opportunity presented itself. After the Jays missed out on landing a big free agent hitter, he saw his opportunity and not only dumped Glaus' salary, but in Hudson he got one of the best defensive secondbasemen in the game and whose offense is acceptable (with lots of promise) for his position.

My only hesitation is that I'm a little concerned that Arizona might wind up giving the Jays one of their better prospects--in which case I'd like the trade somewhat less. But considering that they're exchanging a ticking time bomb like Glaus for a highly useful young, established player--it's hard to see how this trade doesn't prove to be a big win for Arizona.

As for the Jays... Ricciardi won't be the GM of the Jays by this time next year. He's committed a lot of payroll to two players who are likely to get injured plus a closer (who's a very good ace reliver, but not worth the money he'll make). The net loss of Hudson is nearly as great as the net gain of a healthy Glaus--if he breaks down, it's a major downgrade. Furthermore, despite the three big acquisitions, the Jays are far from likely contention. It's going to be a very expensive 85 win club that finishes either third or a distant second in the AL East.

Arizona still lacks the pitching to be a major threat to win a World Series, but they have as good a shot as any team in the NL West to win the division--possibly even better than any other rival. Very impressed by Byrnes so far. He managed to reverse one of the three major mistakes by Arizona's front office last year. If he can make Shawn Green and/or Russ Ortiz disappear, then I'd be ecstatic if I were a Dback fan.
   42. Snowboy Posted: December 24, 2005 at 05:44 AM (#1792735)
I've been thinking a little more about this trade, and it has the potential to work
_IF_ the Jays can move one or two of Koskie/Hinske/Hillenbrand
_IF_ Glaus is healthy

I'm worried about the defense with FCat in LF, Glaus at 3B, and Hill at 2B. (Happier if they moved Adams to 2B.) But if Glaus stays healthy, he really does solve the Jays problem they created for themselves when they let Delgado leave: a legitimate #4 hitter. It was a monster problem this year, and Glaus may solve it.

Oh, and reporter on MLB.com says the prospect going to Toronto will be SS Sergio Santos, Arizona's first pick in 2002 who had a disappointing 2005 year in AAA.
   43. Paul D(uda) Posted: December 24, 2005 at 05:46 AM (#1792737)
Rumour has it that Sergio Santos is the prospect Arizona's sending over.

As for the Jays... Ricciardi won't be the GM of the Jays by this time next year.

JP's position as the Jays GM this time next year is about as safe as any position in sports. You may not agree with that, you may think he should be fired, but you're not in charge. Rogers and Godfrey love JP and just gave him an extension.

I would be willing to make pretty much any wager you'd care to make that JP will be the Jays GM on Jan 1, 2007 (baring unforseen circumstances).
   44. Internet Commenter Posted: December 24, 2005 at 06:21 AM (#1792755)
This deal is so good that I couldn't care less what happens with Santos in the future. Granted, I don't think he'll ever make it to the majors...

If he can make Shawn Green and/or Russ Ortiz disappear, then I'd be ecstatic if I were a Dback fan.

I'm already thrilled with Byrnes. I'd love to see both of these guys gone; however, Green isn't the end of the world as long as he slides over to left come August/September and Gonzo slides out to pasture. Arizona's either going to trade Green or get some picks for him in the 2008 draft. Ortiz is a sunk cost, but he isn't blocking anyone. Byrnes solved the real problems, saved money and scared up some legit players in the process.
   45. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 24, 2005 at 06:52 AM (#1792771)
Oh, and reporter on MLB.com says the prospect going to Toronto will be SS Sergio Santos, Arizona's first pick in 2002 who had a disappointing 2005 year in AAA.

If it is Santos, then excellent trade for Arizona. Basically, he is redundant on a team that has Drew and (possibly) Upton as their long-term shortstop solution. Santos is still talented enough to be interesting, but I think that the Dbacks most likely won't regret letting him get away.
   46. spivey Posted: December 24, 2005 at 07:07 AM (#1792773)
especially because he's the kind of player who probably has a career year around the corner because he's an average guy in his late 20s.

Is this based on anything? I don't watch him much but haven't seen any reason why his offense is going to get better.
   47. Flynn Posted: December 24, 2005 at 07:50 AM (#1792779)
Furthermore, despite the three big acquisitions, the Jays are far from likely contention. It's going to be a very expensive 85 win club that finishes either third or a distant second in the AL East.

How? They won 80 games last year with a shitty offense and a hurt Halladay. Halladay doesn't his leg broken by a line drive and they possibly win 85 games. They have the makings of a very strong rotation - Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Towers and Bush has the potential to be one of the strongest 1-5s anywhere, and their bullpen was pretty good, let down only by a mediocre closer, and they sure as hell improved on that.

They're replacing Hudson with a guy who played shortstop in the minors and has a bat that's at least as good as Hudson's and is probably going to be much better. Hill posted basically the same numbers as Hudson last year in his ML debut and has been compared by some scouts to Hank Blalock (and since I doubt scouts are doing park adjustment figures in their head, I assume this means very strong line drive hitter). Wells could very well become an excellent hitter again - he's only 27 - and some of their underperforming guys (cough Koskie) will likely bounce back some.

They have a lot of question marks - health, guys with potential who haven't fulfilled it yet - but you're basically writing them off against a team that currently has no SS, no CF, Mike Lowell for a 3B, Dave Magadan II at 1B and whose pitching staff will be an utter shambles if a 39 year old fat guy who still hasn't recovered from ankle issues, a 33 year old reliever who had to have surgery on both knees, and a 26 year old with consistent blister problems fail to perform to expectations.

The other team you're writing them off against has a 42 year old with a balky back anchoring a rotation of a 37 year old pitcher who has been average the last two seasons, a youngster, a guy who pitched his butt off last year, and a couple of bad contracts. Their middle relief is still..uh..interesting. And their defense still sucks.

All three teams have some big-time flaws and health questions, and one team is going to stay healthy, get some bounceback years and win the thing. But I don't see how you can just write off the Blue Jays considering the other two contenders in the AL East have gaping flaws, particularly in pitching. Which just happens to be the Jays' strength.
   48. Snowboy Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:26 PM (#1792827)
Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, Towers and Bush

Bush is gone, Lilly is still there. Alternatives are McGowan, Marcum, etc.
I'm still having a little trouble looking at that staff of control pitchers and groundballers, and seeing Hudson and Koskie taken away from them. Glaus is a big bat when healthy...I guess we'll see how it works out.

Oh, and agree with Paul D, Riccardi is safe in his job for at least a couple more years, upper mgmt is under a spell.
   49. Johnny Tuttle Posted: December 24, 2005 at 12:58 PM (#1792833)
Batista and Hudson are unnecessary at this poin (sic)

So you'd also be a small Hall guy, too, no?
   50. Johnny Tuttle Posted: December 24, 2005 at 01:01 PM (#1792834)
I don't get Blue Jay fans whining that Glaus doesn't fill a need on their team. Like hitting isn't a need on a team that had only three returning players with OPS+ > 100? He's the best hitter on your team. By a lot. Enjoy him, and the games he wins for you.


It's no problem that the Jays have finally added a slugger. It's just that Hillenbrand was so shockingly unbad at DH and Hudson was seemingly so valuable to this club, that JP might bite to replace, say, the worst hitter in his line-up (Rios) rather than turfing aside two markedly average offensive fellas (Hillenbrand & Hudson).
   51. Johnny Tuttle Posted: December 24, 2005 at 01:04 PM (#1792835)
play Hill at 2nd.

I would much rather have Hill get to be SS; Adams had a fairly brutal year there last year, and I'd push his to the slightly less demanding position myself.

Small quibble.
   52. Russ Posted: December 24, 2005 at 01:15 PM (#1792839)
As I posted yesterday in a separate Pirate e-mail list, I think Craig Wilson will be returning to his roots in Toronto soon. Corey Koskie and Reed Johnson are too much to resist for David Littlefield. Two guys who are exactly his types of player (one guy who used to be good and another guy who can block two decent young players with better skill sets but less ML experience). Wilson is a better hitter than Hillenbrand and Hinske and he can fake a little RF as well. David Littlefield hates Craig Wilson because he doesn't look like a ballplayer and doesn't grunt when he swings. Mark my words, this trade will happen.
   53. Johnny Tuttle Posted: December 24, 2005 at 01:18 PM (#1792840)
This is a risky team JP's put together. A risky team indeed. But JP's job is very safe. And it's potentially a 95 win team if things break well.

I'll take the risk inherent in all four moves this year, I'll take the inherent risk in picking up 2 injury prone players (or at least potentially injury prone) because this is not signing or acquiring Orlando Merced, Otis Nixon, Carlos Garcia, or whomever from the desparate past 10 years during which the Blue Jays were far more the KC Royals or the Pittsburgh Pirates than the Seattle Mariners or New York Yankees.

This is not rolling over just because one behemoth in your own division clears $200 million in salary easily and another clears $150 million; this is taking a shot whilst those two Monty Burnses look vulnerable for a year or two.

Even if this all blows up, I respect it.
   54. Johnny Tuttle Posted: December 24, 2005 at 01:19 PM (#1792841)
And if mgl says Hudson is already more valuable than is Glaus, I'm inclined to believe him.
   55. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 24, 2005 at 02:16 PM (#1792853)
This seems like a pretty bad deal for the Blue Jays. Glaus hasn't played defense effectively for two years. His glove at third made him about an average 3B despite the bat. I'd rather have Hudson.

I still think JP's had a very good offseason, I expect the Blue Jays to be a strong contender in the AL East, and I wouldn't be surprised if they ran away with the division. But I don't think this trade gets them particularly closer to that goal.
   56. Johnny Tuttle Posted: December 24, 2005 at 02:22 PM (#1792855)
Getting a RF to push Rios to fourth status should still be done.

Someone above correctly pointed out that too many Jays hitters are average offensively; this deal at least alleviates that. Both Glaus and now Wells should be effective middle of the order hitters.

I wonder what the line-up is?

Cat/Johnson
Overbay
Wells
Glaus
Koskie
Zaun
Hill
Adams
Rios
   57. Johnny Tuttle Posted: December 24, 2005 at 02:27 PM (#1792860)
A new RF to push Koskie et al lower would look very, very nice.

How crazy an idea is Larry Walker?
   58. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 24, 2005 at 02:47 PM (#1792872)
Walker seemed pretty serious about retirment. That and the turf would kill him. I don't think it's going to happen. Who's left out there on the market otherwise?
   59. Johnny Tuttle Posted: December 24, 2005 at 03:13 PM (#1792890)
Thank goodness no longer Mench for the Jays! That's a side benefit of this deal. This might be bad, but Mench for B & H would have been horrid.
   60. The Bones McCoy of THT Posted: December 24, 2005 at 03:14 PM (#1792892)
Rogers and Godfrey love JP and just gave him an extension.


Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Best Regards

John
   61. Daryn Posted: December 24, 2005 at 03:36 PM (#1792916)
You're joking, I hope...

yes.
   62. 1k5v3L Posted: December 24, 2005 at 03:53 PM (#1792922)
Santos? Maybe the Jays will keep him SS. Or move him to LF...

I like Santos more than anyone here, most likely. Oh well...
   63. Internet Commenter Posted: December 24, 2005 at 08:54 PM (#1793185)
You can stop pretending about Santos now, levski. ;)
   64. The Truth Posted: December 24, 2005 at 11:25 PM (#1793389)
I still can't believe that Brilliant Bill Stoneman(d)man didn't even try too retain him...oh wait Yes I can! this is the same dope that traded Edmonds, and signed GARRET Anderson for 44 million dollars.

He didn't even offer abritration...a year later and we still haven't replaced him.
   65. Dixiechick Posted: December 25, 2005 at 05:16 PM (#1793654)
This is a potentially fabulous deal for the Jays.

The Blue Jays were 11th out of 14 teams last year in EqA. They were extremely close to the bottom in offensive production.

They also have a surplus of middle infielders and Batista wasting $5 million. He is not a capable starter, and has never stuck in the rotation. As a closer he was poor. It's likely he would have ended up as the 11th or 12th man on the staff in 2006.

Hudson was a terrific fielder but his EqA last year was .249. Adams is a better hitter, and will hopefully be moved to second allowing Hill to play short. Hill should give a defensive improvement at short, and Adams should do better at second where his arm and range are not such issues. Overall, the defense will be worse, but perhaps only slightly.

Koskie now plays the dl as much as he plays third. His at bats have declined steadily for 5 years. This deal allows both him and Glaus significant DH time to avoid injuries on the field.

Glaus is righthanded, where the team needs power.

JP tried virtually every rightfielder possible to replace Rios. I suspect there is still a move to come there. With this move, he unloads Batista, improves the offense, sorts out the middle infield logjam, and puts Koskie and Glaus in a situation where they can get more at bats than they would have otherwise. His added cost this year is about 1.5 million.

Of course the move has risks. JP's in the AL East where his two main competitors spend two or three times as much as him. He needs possible high ceiling moves, and they'll always carry a risk because he doesn't have the option of eliminating risk by just outspending everyone by an extra 65 to 140 million a year, as his competitors do.

Overall, this has the potential to be an excellent move for Toronto.
   66. TVerik - Dr. Velocity Posted: December 25, 2005 at 05:18 PM (#1793659)
Is this Santos L. Halper?
   67. 1k5v3L Posted: December 25, 2005 at 05:39 PM (#1793682)
He is not a capable starter, and has never stuck in the rotation.

huh? last 4 years as a starter (2001-03, with az, 2004 with tor):
yeargsipera+

200118140136
2002
29185103
2003
29193132
2004
31199101 


career era+ 103. if batista gives you 190 ip with era+ of 103, he's worth $5m
   68. Snowboy Posted: December 25, 2005 at 10:07 PM (#1793836)
The Blue Jays were 11th out of 14 teams last year in EqA. They were extremely close to the bottom in offensive production.

Whose fault was that? It was Riccardi who signed Catalanotto for another two years, while waiving Phelps and letting Delgado walk. It was Riccardi who moved Rios from CF to RF and gave him the starting job. It was Riccardi who stunted Hudson's development by jerking him around. It was Riccardi who traded Felipe Lopez for Jason Arnold. It was Riccardi who gave Adams the starting job. It was Riccardi who moved Hinske to 1B by signing Koskie. It was Riccardi's team.

Hudson was a terrific fielder but his EqA last year was .249

I thought his EQA was .259? Is EQA the Davenport stat at Baseball Prospectus, or am I missing something (I could be)? I thought his EQA was better than Morneau, Burnitz, Atkins, Mark Grudz, Erstad, Shannon Stewart, O-Cab, the Boones, the Alex Gonzalezes, Sammy Sosa, Jason Kendall, Angel Berroa, Rotisserie Rolen, Mike Lowell, and a bunch of other guys who make more money and play easier positions.

Adams is a better hitter

He might be someday, but he was not last year.
Adams: 256/325/383
O-Dog: 271/315/412
O-Dog's EQA and GPA were better too.

Overall, the defense will be worse, but perhaps only slightly.

You are removing the Gold Glove at 2B, and wanting to replace him with a guy you think has arm and range issues. I think you are underestimating how different it is to play 2B than play SS, which Adams has done his whole career. You are seriously underestimating how good Hudson is defensively, and how important that is to the pitching staff. You are replacing Koskie's glove with Troy Glaus, the worst defender at his position last year according to UZR? That all sounds a lot worse, not "only slightly."

Koskie now plays the dl as much as he plays third. His at bats have declined steadily for 5 years

Again, whose fault is this? Riccardi signed him. Yes, Glaus is a big hitter when healthy. But if Riccardi has to take away half of Koskie's value by moving him out of the field to DH, virtually all of Hinske's value by moving him from 3B to 1B to $5M/year corner IF backup, and weaken his pitching staff by trading the Gold Glove off 2B...it's a pretty high price for Glaus.

His added cost this year is about 1.5 million

Where are you getting this figure? Glaus is owed $9.25M this year. Batista $4.75M, Hudson ??? (they're saying he'll jump from $350,000 to $2M this winter, we'll see) Are you assuming Koskie/Hillenbrand/Hinske to be traded for minor leaguer?

This is a potentially fabulous deal for the Jays
Overall, this has the potential to be an excellent move for Toronto


True. But I noticed you used the word "potential" when describing the deal. It's not a slam-dunk for Toronto (although it is for Arizona, IMO). And let's not get too revisionist when describing the pre-2006 team: it was Riccardi's creation, and Hudson was a very important part of the team.
   69. 1k5v3L Posted: December 26, 2005 at 04:33 PM (#1794474)
Glaus deal isn't done yet, GM says

The Toronto Blue Jays put trade talks on hold yesterday but general manager J.P. Ricciardi said he remains optimistic he'd soon have the bat he was looking for in Arizona third baseman Troy Glaus.

"I am," Ricciardi said from his home in Worcester, Mass. "But we're taking the day off. Nothing's changed in the past 24 hours. We're still working on a lot of little things."

The trade, which came to life late last week when Glaus agreed to waive his limited no-trade clause, would bring the 29-year-old thumper to Toronto for Gold Glove second baseman Orlando Hudson and pitcher Miguel Batista.

The Jays would also get a prospect in the deal, believed to be 22-year-old shortstop Sergio Santos, who hit .239 with 12 homers and 68 RBIs for Triple-A Tucson last season.

Foremost among the "little things" to be ironed out, presumably, is how much — if any — of the $32.75 million (U.S.) Glaus is owed over the next three seasons the D-Backs are willing to pick up.

Despite injury-riddled 2003 and 2004 seasons with the Angels, the D-Backs signed Glaus to a four-year, $45 million gamble last December. He's still due $9.25 million this coming season, $10.75 million the next and $12.75 million in 2008.

Glaus, who led the AL with 47 home runs in 2000, has 219 career homers over 976 games, 37 of those last season despite a strained tendon in the back of his left knee that occasionally troubled him last season.
   70. 1k5v3L Posted: December 26, 2005 at 11:09 PM (#1794946)
Glaus undergoes physical in Toronto

PHOENIX -- The Blue Jays and Diamondbacks are expected to announce on Tuesday that they've completed a deal that would send third baseman Troy Glaus and prospect Sergio Santos to Toronto and pitcher Miguel Batista and second baseman Orlando Hudson to Arizona.

The two teams reached an agreement on the deal last Thursday, but the holiday weekend delayed the medical clearance part of the transaction. Glaus was in Toronto on Monday for his physical and is expected to remain there overnight for a press conference on Tuesday.
   71. Paul D(uda) Posted: December 27, 2005 at 12:08 AM (#1794993)
It was Riccardi who signed Catalanotto for another two years, while waiving Phelps and letting Delgado walk. It was Riccardi who moved Rios from CF to RF and gave him the starting job. It was Riccardi who stunted Hudson's development by jerking him around. It was Riccardi who traded Felipe Lopez for Jason Arnold. It was Riccardi who gave Adams the starting job. It was Riccardi who moved Hinske to 1B by signing Koskie. It was Riccardi's team.

What's wrong with Cat? He's been very productive the past couple of years.
And Phelps hasn't been able to do much for either the Indians or the Devil Rays, I'm not sure why you'd be crying about his loss.

What was wrong with Rios playing RF? I don't understand that criticism. I also don't understand how JP jerked Hudson around. He sent him down once after Spring Training, then he came up and stayed.

Lopez I'd give you, but there appear to be some personal stuff going on there. What was wrong with Adams getting the starting SS job? Would you rather Chris Woodward?
   72. MM1f Posted: December 27, 2005 at 01:29 AM (#1795113)
"It was Riccardi who ...waiv[ed] Phelps"

So? More power to JP (who im not all the big a fan of BTW)
Well, technically he didn't waive him. He dumped him for a fringey prospect who he then waived a year later. But so what? Yeah Phelps showed some promise and I thought he couldve gotten a little more for him but how are you saying that waiving him was a bad thing? Have you seen him since he got waived? Hell, have you seen him hit since 2003? He is crap now. He couldnt he AAA slop when i last saw him.

Would you blame a GM for waiving Ken Harvey or Randall Simon? What about Jeff Leifer? I doubt it, but Phelps is on that level of ability right now...actually I'd take Harvey over Phelps as far as present ability goes.

rant over

"I think you are underestimating how different it is to play 2B than play SS, which Adams has done his whole career"

You know something else about Russ ADams' whole SS playing career? Even back in college people said he needed to be moved to 2b. By all accounts, hes lucky to have made it to the bigs as an SS


As a side note, I would love to see Rios get one more year as a starter. I think hes got a lot of potential still. And i do think that Santos will be a mild surprise (and no im not levski)
   73. DCW3 Posted: December 27, 2005 at 03:39 AM (#1795239)
<span #0000BB"> Levski made blue font! Can I do it too?</span #0000BB">
   74. DCW3 Posted: December 27, 2005 at 03:41 AM (#1795241)
<div class="codeblock">
<span #0000BB">I guess not.</span><span #007700"> </span>
</div>


   75. Snowboy Posted: December 27, 2005 at 05:47 AM (#1795344)
What's wrong with Cat?
If I remember, F-Cat was on the 60-Day DL when JP signed him to another two year contract. It was in August? Exactly what was the rush here? He is terrible in the field, exactly what is the market for a DH who hits ten homers a year? Riccardi did this at the same time as he released Phelps, so I consider that part of the move, and I didn't like it.

And Phelps hasn't been able to do much for either the Indians or the Devil Rays, I'm not sure why you'd be crying about his loss.
I'm a Phelps fan. He had plenty of talent. I think I remember some bad luck (BABIP or something) with Toronto in 2004. And I also remember the hitting coach who screwed him up getting fired. He got into a funk against RHP, a bad split which he had never demonstrated in his career before. He was just fine with the Indians, they just didn't have a spot for him long-term. He was also decent for the Devil Rays, don't ask me to explain those guys. His splits against RHP were fine and returned to norm. They chose to promote Gomes over him, which is an acceptable move, but it's not his fault they chose to dump him in AAA and he never got the opportunity to play somewhere else.

Anyway, my points are to be taken in context of an answer to the previous poster. If they were a poor hitting team, there was no one to blame but the GM. The team consisted of two number-two hitter, five number-six hitters, and two bottom-of-the-order hitters. There was no one that opposing pitchers feared, no one to drive the ball with authority, and Riccardi replacing Delgado and Phelps with guys like F-Cat and Hillenbrand created a team the original poster called "extremely close to the bottom in offensive production."

What was wrong with Rios playing RF...what was wrong with Adams getting the starting SS job?
I didn't mean to be critical of Riccardi for these moves per se, I was just using them as examples of why the Jays were a poor hitting team. Rios was a CF in the minors, and he hit like one last year, even if he played RF. Adams hit like a rookie SS. Were we really expecting Sheffield and ARod?

I also don't understand how JP jerked Hudson around. He sent him down once after Spring Training, then he came up and stayed.
Hudson development path was an organizational zig-zag. They moved him from 2B to 3B and back and forth and back again. In 2002 he was ready to be the 2B, with Homer Bush blocking his way. They cut bait on Bush, but then left Hudson to cool his heels in Syracuse for a couple extra months while they ran Joe Lawrence out there everyday. It was probably more about organizational politics that the "smooth pimp" comment, but Hudson was ready. And all the while he was in AAA, they had him leading off. Then he gets to the majors, but never leads off. Is he a seventh hitter? Second? Ninth? Eighth? What's a fellas role, how's he supposed to prepare mentally to hit when he never knows where he'll be in the order? (Not all of this is Riccardi's fault, but he has influence, and he hired Carlos Tosca to run the field, so he's ultimately responsible.)

You know something else about Russ ADams' whole SS playing career? Even back in college people said he needed to be moved to 2b. By all accounts, hes lucky to have made it to the bigs as an SS
I don't understand your point here. Are you saying Adams has been proving the critics wrong for years that he needs to move off SS, and he should stay there? Or are you saying he was lucky to make it this far, and he'd better move off SS if he wants to stay in the bigs? If you mean the latter, I'll take the opportunity to reiterate my original point: converting a career SS to 2B at the major league level is a challenge, and I suspect will have a more negative impact on the Jays defense than is being assumed.
   76. guelphdad Posted: December 27, 2005 at 04:37 PM (#1795656)
It's crazy: the Leafs played tonight and sports talk radio in this city is getting flooded with people wanting to talk about the Jays. That's really significant.

I'd say I have to agree. Hell the Leafs don't even have to play, can take a full year off and they are "on topic" almost every call-in show.

The Jays are finally trying to take back the reins to this city they enjoyed for those heady '90s seasons.
   77. MM1f Posted: December 27, 2005 at 09:52 PM (#1796234)
"I don't understand your point here. Are you saying Adams has been proving the critics wrong for years that he needs to move off SS, and he should stay there? Or are you saying he was lucky to make it this far, and he'd better move off SS if he wants to stay in the bigs? If you mean the latter, I'll take the opportunity to reiterate my original point: converting a career SS to 2B at the major league level is a challenge, and I suspect will have a more negative impact on the Jays defense than is being assumed. "

Sorry about the abiguity. I meant the latter, and I do understand your point that it is a challenge but you have to weigh whether the conversion will hurt the D more than Adams might by leaving him at SS. ANd of course you have to factor in the diff in Adams D vs the other option(s) which in this case is Aaron Hill. Basically the Jays have to move one of them off SS to 2b so youre going to have to deal with the negative effects of the conversion regardless. But it shouldnt be a long lasting thing, it might hurt a little-but not too much this year-but will set them up better for thefuture.
   78. MM1f Posted: December 27, 2005 at 10:03 PM (#1796266)
"I'm a Phelps fan. He had plenty of talent. I think I remember some bad luck (BABIP or something) with Toronto in 2004. And I also remember the hitting coach who screwed him up getting fired. He got into a funk against RHP, a bad split which he had never demonstrated in his career before. He was just fine with the Indians, they just didn't have a spot for him long-term. He was also decent for the Devil Rays, don't ask me to explain those guys. His splits against RHP were fine and returned to norm. They chose to promote Gomes over him, which is an acceptable move, but it's not his fault they chose to dump him in AAA and he never got the opportunity to play somewhere else."

He was "fine" with the Indians but that was only in 76 atbats.
Then with the Devil Rays he put up 266/328/424 in the bigs and 270/329/550 in AAA in a sweet hitters park.

Not bad numbers but NOWHERE near what you have to do to stick in the bigs if you are a DH/bad 1b. Hes a AAAA slugger at this point-albeit one with a little upside.

And you say "dont ask me to explain the Devil Rays?" Just because theyve made alot of bad moves doesnt mean them sending a DH who was OPSing 750 to AAA is an unexplainable move.

Id agree with you if you wanted JP to get more in return when he dumped him but the dump itself looks like a solid move.

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