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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Tuesday, November 02, 2021Rockies’ Extension Offer To Jon Gray Was In $35-40MM Range
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: November 02, 2021 at 11:55 AM | 6 comment(s)
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1. DarrenI suspect it comes down to peripherals, statcast, Coors adjustments, etc. As Tom notes, Gray's FIP is much better than the ERA which could mean he'll be more a 120 ERA+ pitcher in the future. The K-rate is high, the HR rate looks darn good for Coors (but maybe getting worse). Somewhat different shape but standard peripherals are pretty similar to Eovaldi (who led the AL in FIP this year). Seems to me Gray's reputation has always been higher than his outcomes which is usually a good thing for a FA pitcher. But maybe he is seen as more of a Gibson type.
So I'll guess he'll at least match that offer and more likely end up at $15+ AAV. The big question is probably whether he gets a 4th year (age 33). I will add that if you're worried about giving Gray 3/$50 then you are never going to sign any FA pitcher with a decent track record.
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