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Thursday, May 16, 2019

Rosenthal: The lack of movement on Kimbrel and Keuchel; a Cubs revival; the Reds’ dangerous spot; more notes – The Athletic

I can’t see why any team would sign them this close to the draft. Later, maybe, but not before.

The Phillies, in theory, should be all over free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel. Four of their relievers — Victor Arano, Tommy Hunter, Edubray Ramos and David Robertson — are on the injured list. And Robertson, who is not a lockdown closer even when healthy, will be shut down at least three more weeks with a right flexor strain.

On a one-year deal in particular, finances should not be an issue for Team Stupid Money, even after its commitment of $403 million to Robertson and outfielders Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen in free agency. The sacrifice of a draft pick should not be an issue, either — the signing of Kimbrel would cost them only their third pick, No. 91 overall, after they forfeited their second choice for Harper.

...

Kimbrel, sources told The Athletic in mid-April, wants to be in the range of two recent free-agent relievers: Zack Britton (three years, $39 million) and Wade Davis (three years, $52 million). Keuchel, on the other hand, is believed to prefer a one-year deal, presumably above the $17.9 million qualifying offer he rejected from the Astros. The actual amount he receives, when prorated, would be considerably less (as would Kimbrel’s salary in year one). But at least he could re-enter the open market this offseason.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 16, 2019 at 06:28 AM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: notes, pay site

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   1. Dr. Vaux Posted: May 17, 2019 at 12:11 AM (#5842977)
Doesn't giving up their second round pick make their third round pick that much more valuable to them, not less?

Owners--and players--will just have to realize in the next CBA talks that draft picks are clearly more valuable than sportswriters, fans, and agents think.
   2. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: May 17, 2019 at 09:16 AM (#5842999)
its commitment of $403 million to Robertson and outfielders Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen in free agency

That's a totally reasonable way to describe those three contracts...
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 17, 2019 at 09:29 AM (#5843005)
Doesn't giving up their second round pick make their third round pick that much more valuable to them, not less?

Why? The surplus value of the pick is the surplus value. It's not like they're not going to be able to acquire talent by other means.
   4. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: May 17, 2019 at 09:30 AM (#5843006)
Doesn't giving up their second round pick make their third round pick that much more valuable to them, not less?

Well it might make it more valuable to them relatively speaking. But still not nearly enough, to offset the drop from giving up a third rounder instead of a second rounder. Giving up a second rounder will always be worse than giving up a third rounder, even if you additionally also already don't have a second.

Owners--and players--will just have to realize in the next CBA talks that draft picks are clearly more valuable than sportswriters, fans, and agents think.

Yes. Also, the notion that a team should just go '#### it' and throw 3/50 at a reliever, due to some temporary bullpen injuries is sort of insane.

Further, it is worth noting that "Team Stupid Money" is sneakily close to the tax threshold. Despite only being at 140m in payroll this season, they are less than 18m under the luxury tax (due to a bunch of guys being paid much less than their AAV this season), which I assume they would not want to go over, and start triggering escalating tax rates for future years. Especially if they plan on possibly being over in the future.
   5. Rusty Priske Posted: May 17, 2019 at 09:49 AM (#5843009)
Everyone keeps checking in on Kimbrel & Keuchel (fair enough), but whatever happened to Evan Gattis?
   6. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: May 17, 2019 at 09:52 AM (#5843010)
I appreciate what Kimbrel did with the Sox and that was a good trade but let's not pretend he's the pitcher he used to be either. He reminds me quite frankly a lot of Papelbon, a guy who was at one time dominant but was showing signs of slippage as he turned 30. Like Papelbon I expect Kimbrel to be good but not great for the next few years and $17 mil a year is a big chunk of dough. See also Wade Davis.

If I were a team I'd be willing to throw a big chunk of money at Kimbrel on a one year deal and try to convince him his best bet is to re-enter the market next off-season. I'd want to retain some flexibility.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 17, 2019 at 10:14 AM (#5843024)
If I were a team I'd be willing to throw a big chunk of money at Kimbrel on a one year deal and try to convince him his best bet is to re-enter the market next off-season. I'd want to retain some flexibility.

Something like 1/$12M, with a $15M team option, and a $3M buyout makes sense.
   8. . Posted: May 17, 2019 at 10:24 AM (#5843032)
Both these guys got really bad advice.

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