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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Wednesday, September 21, 2022Royals fire Dayton Moore as president of baseball operations
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: September 21, 2022 at 03:06 PM | 51 comment(s)
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1. Dag Nabbit: Sockless Psychopath Posted: September 21, 2022 at 03:16 PM (#6097338)Here's the thread when he was hired
Before they won, Royals fans used to joke about trusting The Process -- the constant assumption that slow and steady wins the race, that underperformers will figure it out, that guys currently in the system are the long term answer, that guys who've had success will maintain it. From about 2012-2015, The Process worked beautifully. From about 2016-2019, it didn't work at all. From 2020 to present, they've gotten a lot of talent into the system, but the results haven't shown themselves on the field yet. The pitchers are definitely behind schedule; the hitters are just arriving.
“Understand this: The minor-league players, the players you’ll never know about, the players that never get out of rookie ball or High A, those players have as much impact on the growth of our game (as) 10-year or 15-year veteran players. They have as much opportunity to influence the growth of our game as those individuals who played for a long time because those individuals go back into their communities and teach the game, work in academies, are JUCO coaches, college coaches, scouts, coaches in pro baseball. They’re growing the game constantly because they’re so passionate about it. So we felt it was really, really important not to release one minor-league player during this time, a time we needed to stand behind them.”
The new GM will probably want a new manager, a new pitching coach, and a less sentimental approach to getting and paying players. Those are conventional baseball problems. But at the time Moore was hired, the Royals had nothing -- no good players (Greinke, Butler, and Gordon were in the system, but that's about it), no minor league system, no good staff, and no way of getting any of it. The expectation was somewhere between grinding, fruitless failure and demoralizing, abject failure.
16 years ago. I wrote just 4 lines. Times change eh?
Cashman....2007-2022....1 pennant...one World Championship
I hope that's true.
Sherman said all the right things at the press conference. Pretty clear he wants to bring the Royals up to speed in analytics and DM was getting in the way. Picollo has worked with DM for decades but supposedly has been the one pushing for more analytics. We'll see. I like that Sherman didn't use small market excuses and wants to bring the Royals up with the Rays, Brewers, and Guardians in pitcher development.
I think any organization that reduces (in particular) the Rays to "analytics" is overselling analytics. They're ruthless about being cost-effective (and that part is almost totally analytics) and can do so because they're very good at player development.
In a sense they remind me of the Orioles of the mid to late 60s and early 70s. Seems easy from afar but there's clearly a lot of good scouting and coaching happening.
This strikes me as obviously true. Analytics are no longer a market inefficiency. Anybody can hire twenty quants out of Berkeley and Cornell and have an effective analytics department. The secret sauce is elsewhere these days.
I also agree.
They must also be good at scouting. When you go through their Top 12 players, it's a bunch of guys who started elsewhere and then found a new level in Tampa. They must be good at identifying players they can develop.
Sherman said in the presser that they have the data, it's just not being used properly. He said it needs to be used in the draft, in development, and in making trades. I don't get the sense he's just saying analytics because it's a good buzzword, it seems like he learned a lot by being involved with the Cleveland ballclub as minority owner, and has talked a lot about using data - not just baseball statistics, but behavioral analysis, psychology - to improve development. We'll see, but I think this marks a finally sea change in the way this organization looks at analytics, they're finally looking forward instead of back to 1985.
If they lose those playoff games, they probably still keep their jobs, people were just so thrilled to make the playoffs. The Royals were 49-50 in late July that year - if they go .500 the rest of the way, Dayton Moore probably loses his job then.
1969-1975 - no playoffs
1976-1985 - 7 division titles, 2 WS appearance, 1 WS win (the final year) over a decade.
1986-2013 - nada, just once reaching 90 wins (pre-Wild Card so left in the cold)
2014-2015 - 2 times to the WS, winning it once.
2016-2022 - nada, best record was 500 in 2016
Feast or famine for the KC fans. A 28 year stretch in the wilderness with little to no hope.
A lot of teams have had ugly long stretches like that (15+ years with no playoffs). Pittsburgh went from 1993-2012 with no playoffs, Toronto 1994-2014, Detroit 1988-2005, Angels 1987-2001, and just one from 2010-2022 despite having Mike Trout for most of it and Ohtani as well the past few (8 straight right now). Phillies went from 1994-2006, and now from 2012-2021 (likely broken this year but could blow it still), Washington-Montreal went from 1982-2011, the Mets had a lot of long stretches, but not 15+ year horrid ones. I'm sure I'm missing a few, but there are long stretches of 'who cares' for teams. Meanwhile the Yankees haven't missed more than 2 years in a row since their dark era (fun for everyone else) from 1982-1994 (aka the Mattingly years). This is only from the 90's to now (with streaks starting in the 80's counted).
Excluding pre-divisional era.
Milwaukee 1983-2007, covering two leagues.
Seattle 2002-current but ending this year.
Miami - 2003-2019, ending with expanded playoffs in COVID year.
It's funny, from 1969-1984, the Royals were perpetually pretty good, but snakebit in the playoffs.
From 1985-2022, the Royals have been abjectly awful. They only have three seasons above 87 wins in that timespan. But if not for Madison Bumgarner, they win the World Series in all three of those years.
By the way, I got into the rabbit hole that is baseball-reference, and was on Lou Pinella's page. In transactions, it shows he was traded several times (it took teams a while to figure out what to do with him, so he didn't really get a chance to play until he was 26), but it shows that the first time he was traded was 1964, from the Washington Senators (the one that would become the Rangers) to the Baltimore Orioles.
Then, 36 years later, he was traded from Seattle to Tampa for Randy Winn.
A few questions:
1) Is that the longest stretch between first and last trade in baseball history? (I checked Chuck Tanner, and it was a longer stretch than him.)
2) He is obviously the only person in history to be traded by both the Seattle Pilots and the Seattle Mariners, right?
3) In 1974, Pinella was a full time player with a good batting average, but very little power, and stunningly poor results on the basepaths. He stole one base, and got caught 8 times - 1-for-9. I know I am cherry picking eligibility criteria, but is that the most caught stealings in a season for a guy who stole 0 or 1 base in a season?
To be fair, the guy they got in the Lou Piniella deal wasn't much either.
Now the Hal McRae pickup in 72 was a good example of the Royals' good work in the early 70s.
This is still the only time I can think of that a manager has been traded for a player. I'm sure the people around here will remember more, but it still strikes me as an utterly bizarre thing to have happened.
This "Dark era" included three 90-win seasons ('82, '83, '85) two more where they won 88 or 89 ('87 and '93) and a season where they were on pace for 99 ('94). Meaning that when the strike is accounted for, Mattingly played, (meaningfully) on as many 90 win teams as he did losing teams
The Yankees were the winningest team in baseball in the 1980s.
In the last 100 years, there are no dark "eras" for the Yankees, except in the minds of their fans who believe they have a divine right to the playoffs. There were two stretches where the Yankees were briefly bad and non-competitive (1989-1992, 1965-1969), but calling those "eras" is a lot.
The A's turned around and shipped him right back to Pittsburgh five months later. Weird.
I mean, by the standards of some Yankees fans I have known over the years, 2010-2021 counts as a "dark era" because the Yankees haven't won a WS in that time. Though of course fans are probably going to have adjust their expectation in the everybody-goes-to-the-playoffs world we now live in.
Sorry, Mariners fans.
Manager John Farrell was traded from Toronto to Boston (along with reliever David Carpenter) for Mike Aviles.
*Except the Rockies, apparently.
*Except the Rockies, apparently.
The problem with the Rockies is instead of Berkeley and Cornell, they're making all their quant hires from Liberty and Oral Roberts Universities.
Cashman....2007-2022....1 pennant...one World Championship
I hope that's true.
It is, and from 2006 (when Moore was hired mid-season) to 2022, Ca$hman also outspent the Royals by over ONE BILLION DOLLARS over that time according to Cot's.
I meant, 2007-2022 inclusive.
The Orioles didn't have a 500 season from 1998 to 2011. 1997 they did go to ALCS, and in 2012 they did go to ALDS. But in between it was an absolute brutal stretch, mirroring the Pirates for ineptitude. There were some pretty awful teams for a number of years in the 2000s, if you throw the Tigers and Royals into the mix.
Not sure, but the Royals also had four players from one draft start in their rotation last year - Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, and Jackson Kowar - and reporters said that had only been done three times previous:
1995 Mets (Bobby Jones, Bill Pulsipher, Jason Isringhausen, Jason Jacome)
1995 White Sox (Alex Fernandez, James Baldwin, Jason Bere, Rod Bolton)
2018 Cardinals (Jack Flaherty, Luke Weaver, Austin Gomber, Daniel Ponce de Leon)
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