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Saturday, November 19, 2011

Rozner: For Cubs’ Sveum, stats are help not law

Didn’t even know Keith was involved. Congrats Klaw…huh? ohhh…

“When you’re talking about the ‘Moneyball’ thing, I’ve never seen (the movie). I’ve never read the book,” Sveum said Friday morning when he was officially introduced as the newest Cubs victim. “There’s times you have to create runs.

“If you have a lineup that just hits home runs and you have great hitters, then of course you don’t want to run into outs and give up outs. But sometimes when you have lineups and you’re trying to create runs then you have to try different things to do that.

“That’s just the bottom line. If you’re not gonna hit home runs then you create runs, so you have to do it by running and pushing the envelope sometimes.”

That’s a blasphemous notion to orthodox sabermetricians who believe in only the objective philosophy of baseball statistics. Just as many don’t and are realistic about the effects of numbers, balanced against scouting.

...“A lot of it’s good and a lot of it you have to be careful with because it’s too much if you try to give too much to the players. It’s way too much to rationalize how good it is and how bad it is. You can’t do that in your brain.

“Sometimes you just have to go out and play baseball.’’

Repoz Posted: November 19, 2011 at 01:41 AM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cubs, fantasy baseball, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. O Tempura, O Morays ('Spos) Posted: November 19, 2011 at 02:25 AM (#3996959)
orthodox sabermetricians

Name one.
   2. McCoy Posted: November 19, 2011 at 02:36 AM (#3996964)
All I really want from Dale is for him to work on the hitters and for him to run a happy clubhouse. Let Theo get a good pitching coach to watch over the pitchers and everything else adds up to diddlysquat. As long as Dale isn't some extreme guy who sac bunts all the time or never steals it just won't matter. Regardless of what MGL has to say about it.
   3. McCoy Posted: November 19, 2011 at 02:37 AM (#3996966)
Name one.

   4. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: November 19, 2011 at 02:39 AM (#3996967)
who's the patriarch of the Orthodox SABR church of the holy Burt Blyleven?
   5.  Posted: November 19, 2011 at 02:47 AM (#3996971)
That’s a blasphemous notion to orthodox sabermetricians

No it isn't.
   6. LionoftheSenate Posted: November 19, 2011 at 02:54 AM (#3996976)
A lot has changed since the mainstream press pickup their copy of Moneyball...even the stereotypes have changed.
   7. valuearbitrageur Posted: November 19, 2011 at 03:05 AM (#3996984)
Can't RTFA, blocked behind wall of annoyances.
   8. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: November 19, 2011 at 03:25 AM (#3996997)
target rich environment
   9. The_Ex Posted: November 19, 2011 at 01:33 PM (#3997131)
Asking about the "Moneyball" thing has become soooo cliche. And everyone in baseball knows the answer, "I look at both". That question needs to be left in the bat rack.
   10. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 19, 2011 at 02:23 PM (#3997134)
I am now a firm believer that bullpen management is one of the key skills needed by a manager

Even if Dale had managed in the minors that context is so different because of the goals of development and education a true read on a manager won't happen until the big leagues

Here's hoping the year with Ron sticks with him. Ron R did a solid job
   11. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: November 19, 2011 at 02:25 PM (#3997135)
Crash: "You gotta pay attention to the stats *and* the scouts."

Nuke: [flashes "You kidding me?" look]

Crash: "Yeah, I know, write it down."
   12. tshipman Posted: November 19, 2011 at 03:41 PM (#3997161)
I don't know what orthodox means in this context, but MGL and Tango wrote a book analyzing game decisions from a game theory perspective. I don't believe they ever advocate for doing something 100% of the time.

In addition, in 2003, 2004, MGL was working on play by play defensive value systems, which was hardly part of the perceived sabremetric orthodoxy. I actually don't believe there is such a thing as sabremetric orthodoxy, but if there were, it'd be someone like Joe Sheehan or Rob Neyer.
   13. Zonk demands an audit of your post Posted: November 19, 2011 at 05:10 PM (#3997213)
Cubs added Vitters, Szczur, Junior Lake and Jeff Beliveau to the 40 -- outrighted Kyle Smit, Louis (or Lou, I guess now) Montanez, and Esmailin Caridad off it.

I guess it doesn't matter all that much -- 40 man stands at 34 -- but I don't think Lake or Beliveau are eligible for the rule 5, and I think both are at least a year away (maybe Beliveau gets a look, since he's left-handed and was pretty dynamite at Tenn).

Whatever, though -- this isn't a Sisco situation where Theo/Jed (BTW - we really need a Bennifer for them... "Thed"?) have to be judicious about 40 man roster space.

Mildly surprised about Smit, who IS - I think - rule 5 eligible... not that I expect him to be taken, but he was one of the guys that came over in the Lilly deal. Caridad and Montanez are precisely the sort you should outright, I guess.

My feelings on Vitters are clear - but there's no sense giving him away for 25K (or whatever) so why not add him.
   14. Andere Richtingen Posted: November 19, 2011 at 09:43 PM (#3997444)
...Theo/Jed (BTW - we really need a Bennifer for them... "Thed"?)...

Jeo? I don't care if they're Kang and Kodos. Two people like this in the Cubs organization is a pretty remarkable step forward. As far as Sveum goes, who cares? Analysis is for putting together rosters, not managing them.

I actually don't believe there is such a thing as sabremetric orthodoxy, but if there were, it'd be someone like Joe Sheehan or Rob Neyer.

There was a pretty solid sabermetric orthodoxy until the early 2000s, and Sheehan and Neyer of course were probably the two most important web voices. What they said didn't stray too far from the orthodoxy you saw before that on Usenet, or from Bill James. I think access to lots and lots of data has led to sabermetrics going in a lot of different directions, which in the long run is probably a very good thing.
   15. zfan Posted: November 19, 2011 at 10:55 PM (#3997509)
Sveum seems to be a man who speaks so directly and blandly that he becomes a sort of Rohrshach test for the listener. Some writers have interpreted his words at that press conference to indicate he is big into statistical analysis, understands small sample size issues, and evaluates game strategies in depth against the book. Others have come away saying he's an old-school guy who did what he was told as a coach, isn't afraid to get up in a player's face, and recognizes that statistics are relatively meaningless for managing a game. I'm not overly impressed at this point, but hopeful.
   16. SouthSideRyan Posted: November 19, 2011 at 11:30 PM (#3997525)
[13] All 4 of them were rule 5 eligible. Smit was terrible last year and is just a guy. Whether he's rule 5 eligible or not is irrelevant, if a team wanted him, they'd claim him on waivers and not have to carry him on the 25 man roster all year.

Really surprised Flaherty wasn't rostered. Guess he won't be in the running at 3B. Wouldn't be shocked if we lose an arm or 2.
   17. Greg Franklin Posted: November 20, 2011 at 12:25 AM (#3997543)
Can't RTFA, blocked behind wall of annoyances.

Yeah, these Herald articles should be labeled "(RR)" since they have gone premium. But, I RTFAed by turning off Javascript. That seems to short-circuit their access checker.

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