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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Tuesday, September 14, 2021Ryan Braun retires after 14 seasons
RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)
Posted: September 14, 2021 at 12:25 PM | 32 comment(s)
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1. Buck Coats Posted: September 14, 2021 at 12:33 PM (#6039612)There can't be many non-HOFers who never had an OPS+ under 100 in a long career.
I get that he's pretty despised around here. But one thing Braun did even knowing that his body probably wouldn't hold up is hustle and dive. Ran hard on all the hit balls. Went after stuff on defense. In one respect kind of dumb because he had to know he was likely going to end up on the IL. But then it was also admirable. FWIW on the field Braun always tried hard. As someone who watched Yuni pretend to play shortstop during a division race that made an impression. ####### lasagna
Good riddance.
I feel the same way about Atlanta.
Claims like this are always tough to assess. Braun made it to 7340 PA. "Never" comparisons to guys with 6500 PA and guys with 8000 PA are both unfair. In Braun's particular case, he's choosing (or being forced) to stop before he has that sub-100 season; some other equal player decides to go on and loses his "never" status. Then you get "season."
So, very first guy I checked was Al Oliver. His first "season" was going 1 for 8 in an age 21 very small cup of coffee, that's a -24 OPS+. Did he ruin his claim right there? Oliver followed that with 9,490 PA over 16 seasons where he didn't have one under 100 OPS+. Then for the last 280 PA of his career, he had a 75 OPS+. That certainly seems more impressively "consistently good not great" than Braun but by gettting that last chance (he was still under contract apparently), Oliver drops off the "never" list.
Dw Evans put up a 117 at age 20 but just a 93 at 21 ... then 18 seasons (>10,000 PA) of 100+ including a 119 in his final season. In Baltimore as an FA after 19 years in Boston, that was clearly by choice. After a bit of a rough start, Whitaker had 8300 PA never below 100, finishing with a 129 OPS+ in part-time play. Grich had 104 bad PA to start his career and a 98 OPS+ smack in the middle.
So if we said "how many HOVG players were consistently good from the ages 23-36" or "for a stretch of about 7200 PA", we'd find quite a few. If we impose on them criteria we're not applying to Braun (mainly how consistent were they before 23 and after 36) then lots of them fall away.
Now here's Braun vs Dick Allen:
RB 7340 PA, 1963 H, 352 HR, 296/358/532, 134 OPS+, 316 Rbat, 50 oWAR
DA 7315 PA, 1848 H, 351 HR, 292/378/534, 156 OPS+, 435 Rbat, 70 oWAR
Very close raw stats, vastly different contexts obviously.
Very different career lengths but Brauan is also roughly Sheffield with fewer walks.
Touché
His true comparable players are:
- Matt Holliday
- Lance Berkman, except Berkman walked nearly twice as much
- Jim Rice, except Rice has 1500 more PA
Being the 25th-best player all time at your position is notable, but he's not making the Hall of Merit.
and I still vote for him in Hall of Merit voting.
You're thinking of Eva. Happens all the time to Longoria too.
(I know that's not what we were talking about.)
Ryan Braun vs Ken Singleton
Braun was a first round pick (5th overall)
Singleton was a first round pick (3rd overall)
RB 7340 PA, 1963 H, 352 HR, 296/358/532, 134 OPS+, 316 Rbat, 50 oWAR
KS 8559 PA, 2029 H, 246 HR, 282/388/436, 132 OPS+, 326 Rbat, 49 oWAR
Games by position
RB OF-1528, 3B-112, DH-39, 1B-19
KS OF-1538, DH-477
MVP shares
RB 1.96 (1 win, 2 other top 10)
KS 1.43 (4 top 10)
Hall of Fame standards
Batting (avg HOF 50)
RB 39
KS 30
JAWS
RB (LF) 25th, 47.1 WAR, 42.9 JAWS
KS (RF) 26th, 41.8 WAR, 37.8 JAWS
Singleton fails the "never below 100 OPS+" test because he hit 99+ in his 69G debut season, and 62+ in his last, but he was 100+ in the other 13. (I feel like every player hits under 100+ in their last season? That's *why* it was their last season, unless they suffered an injury or ran off to join a vaudeville stage like Turkey Mike Donlin. Or got banned or blacklisted like Barry Lamar.)
Singleton retired after 1984, and was inducted into the Orioles Hall of Fame in 1986.
Singleton appeared on the Cooperstown HOF ballot in 1990, and didn't receive a single vote.
There were legitimate reasons for that, and a crowded ballot said more about Singleton's vote total than Singleton's value as a player, but Braun deserves roughly about the same treatment. The narrative of only ever playing for one team makes Braun a unique story these days, and he won an MVP after debuting as ROTY, and holds franchise records. It seems like all the ingredients are there, except for sodium bicarbonate. Turn the oven as hot as they like, Braun's cake still doesn't rise.
Singleton fails the "never below 100 OPS+" test because he hit 99+ in his 69G debut season, and 62+ in his last, but he was 100+ in the other 13. (I feel like every player hits under 100+ in their last season? That's *why* it was their last season, unless they suffered an injury or ran off to join a vaudeville stage like Turkey Mike Donlin. Or got banned or blacklisted like Barry Lamar.)
Yeah, that's why we were remarking on Braun (and Johnson, Clark and Canseco). It's pretty unusual never to have a season below 100 *and* not be a HOFer. I would say PED guys are the exception but, other than Bonds, I think all of them had a sub-100 season somewhere, even it was just 18 games at the very beginning of their career like McGwire.
Jeff Kent is another guy who just missed -- he had a 96 in his final season.
This year, it's the Return of Khris Davis.
Next year: Albert Pujols, minimum-wage Oakland Athletic.
Next year: Albert Pujols, minimum-wage Oakland Athletic.
That does feel right, doesn't it?
the ride ended with an 87-inning "Welcome Back, Kotter" effort with the Dodgers in 1988.
Or retired at or near their peak, before they really hit the skids (Ted Williams, Will Clark, Mike Mussina).
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