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Monday, November 18, 2019

Ryan Thibs’ Hall of Fame Tracker

The Thibs Hall of Fame Tracker is back.

Baldrick Posted: November 18, 2019 at 12:27 PM | 1461 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame, son of gizmo

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   1001. cookiedabookie Posted: January 11, 2020 at 08:08 PM (#5914845)
Flip
   1002. Jaack Posted: January 11, 2020 at 08:23 PM (#5914849)
1. Does Larry Walker top 75%
No. He's toast.
2. Does Curt Schilling top 65%?
Eh. Probably.
3. Does Bobby Abreu top 5%?
Yes. He'll end up in th 6-8% range
4. Does Scott Rolen finish ahead of Omar Vizquel?
Nope. Private voters are at least a year behind the puclic ones, and it's more like 2-3 years.
5. Does Jeff Kent finish ahead of Andruw Jones?
Yes. Of all candidates, Kent seems to get votes at the same rate across all demographics.
6. Does Sammy Sosa finish ahead of Andy Pettitte?
I don't think so, but it's going to be close.
7. Does Gary Sheffield finish ahead of Todd Helton?
I'm going to say no here. Helton strikes me as the type of candidate that the real low information voters, who are mostly private, will randomly decide to vote for just because that's the way their brain synapses decided to vote that second.
8. Does Manny Ramirez finish ahead of Billy Wagner?
Probably. I hope Wagner finishes ahead of Manny tho.
   1003. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 11, 2020 at 08:57 PM (#5914853)
1. Does Larry Walker top 75%? Walker will be within 5 votes of the threshold for election, probably on the ‘over’ side.
2. Does Curt Schilling top 65%? Yes, in the 68-72% zone.
3. Does Bobby Abreu top 5%? Yes, 6.15%..
4. Does Scott Rolen finish ahead of Omar Vizquel? Yes.
5. Does Jeff Kent finish ahead of Andruw Jones? Yes.
6. Does Sammy Sosa finish ahead of Andy Pettitte? Yes.
7. Does Gary Sheffield finish ahead of Todd Helton? Yes.
8. Does Manny Ramirez finish ahead of Billy Wagner? Yes.

Only #s 1, 2 & possibly 4, matter.
   1004. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 11, 2020 at 11:03 PM (#5914870)
1. Does Larry Walker top 75% - I hope so, but my heart says he's less than 10 votes shy of induction
2. Does Curt Schilling top 65%? - Yes he will be close to 70%.
3. Does Bobby Abreu top 5%? - For the first time in this voting cycle. I'm feeling optimistic - so yes. (Now that this has happened we will slide 1 vote shy of being on the 2021 ballot)
4. Does Scott Rolen finish ahead of Omar Vizquel? No way, if it does, I will... hell I don't know, but it will be amazing.
5. Does Jeff Kent finish ahead of Andruw Jones? Yes by a (large) handful of votes.
6. Does Sammy Sosa finish ahead of Andy Pettitte? No
7. Does Gary Sheffield finish ahead of Todd Helton? Yes, but Helton will pass him in a couple of years.
8. Does Manny Ramirez finish ahead of Billy Wagner? Probably not, even though Manny is more deserving.
Ditto to 1003. Only 1, 2 and 4 will make any difference in the foreseeable future.
   1005. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 11, 2020 at 11:22 PM (#5914875)
Anonymous voters: Why not reveal who you are: Your ballots are really quite good (except for you #2, but with the arguments presented below, well I guess it's not horrible any many revealed are worse)
Voter 1 - You don't like steroids and didn't vote for any of those guys. I've got no objections with your ballot otherwise, provided you considered Jones and Kent but found them just short. I have them both over, but they are pretty much the last guys into my hall of fame.
Voter 2 - Small hall, don't like PED's, don't like sabermetrics. I really dislike your vote and stance, but Schilling and Jeter if you only vote for 2 aren't bad.
Voter 3 - You have no issues with PED's but don't like SABR stats (no Walker and Rolen). You like all time great defense (Jones but not Vizquel and can differentiate the two) and feel that Ramirez and Sheffield were such great hitters (which they were) that PED's allegations and failed drug tests don't matter. I like your ballot but please reconsider Rolen in the future.
Voter 4 - You don't like Schilling because of his politics, you like closers who are super effective in moderately long careers. Think of Sosa and Abreu often (if he survives), reconsider Schilling and you've got a near perfect ballot. I wouldn't vote for Wagner, but understand those who do.
Voter 5 - You are OK with PED's provided you didn't get suspended (twice). You are not small hall, but have a smaller hall than some seen by omissions of Abreu, Jones, Kent and Vizquel. It's not my ballot, but zero complaints here, as Abreu, Jones and Kent are borderline and Vizquel is way short.
Voter 6 - You've got 10. You've got Omar, but otherwise your selections are awesome. I'd have no Kent and Omar in exchange for Manny and Sosa, but depending on PED stance this is quite reasonable and a good ballot (if not the best)
Voter 7 - Are you me with an irrational hate for Schilling with an ever so slightly smaller hall that excludes Jones and Kent. Because your other 9 selections are absolutely perfect in my eyes.
   1006. SoSH U at work Posted: January 11, 2020 at 11:28 PM (#5914877)
Are you me with an irrational hate for Schilling


Hating Schilling is never irrational.

   1007. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 11, 2020 at 11:51 PM (#5914879)
Hating Schilling is never irrational.

Fair enough.
   1008. TomH Posted: January 12, 2020 at 08:28 AM (#5914893)
You can rationally despise Schilling without letting your hatred affect your vote.

I abhor Jeter's gold gloves and fanboy acclamation, but I would still vote for him, even if it meant I could be the one who kept him from being a 100% unanimous ballot guy. To let your personal feelings affect your judgment is a sign of... well, I won't print it.
   1009. The Duke Posted: January 12, 2020 at 09:24 AM (#5914899)
1008. Oh, but he hurt some people’s feelings which is the worst thing you can these days. Cancel him ! Erase him from the internet ! Ignore all his good works because that makes the character decision easier.
   1010. SoSH U at work Posted: January 12, 2020 at 09:42 AM (#5914901)
Edited: I don't want to derail the Tracker thread. I'll just say I wasn't advocating withholding a vote for Schill.
   1011. bachslunch Posted: January 12, 2020 at 10:35 AM (#5914906)
I believe it’s fine to choose your group of all players who are HoF qualified and then rank them however you choose.

I think both Schilling and Manny have a place in the HoF, but unless there are 8 or fewer other such players, they’re staying off my hypothetical ballot. Manny because he failed two drug tests after 2005 and Schilling because I see his endorsement of sportswriter whacking as a Character Clause issue. I see no reason to award either with a prime place on my ballot. YMMV.
   1012. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 12, 2020 at 12:23 PM (#5914916)
1. Does Larry Walker top 75%? No, I think he falls a couple of points short.
2. Does Curt Schilling top 65%? Yes.
3. Does Bobby Abreu top 5%? No.
4. Does Scott Rolen finish ahead of Omar Vizquel? God I hope so.
5. Does Jeff Kent finish ahead of Andruw Jones? Yes.
6. Does Sammy Sosa finish ahead of Andy Pettitte? Yes.
7. Does Gary Sheffield finish ahead of Todd Helton? Yes. But I have a hunch that Helton will make a big move next year with Walker off the ballot.
8. Does Manny Ramirez finish ahead of Billy Wagner? Yes, as he should.
   1013. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 12, 2020 at 01:06 PM (#5914923)
With 36.7% of the expected ballots reported, Rolen has now exceeded last year's overall vote total.
   1014. The Duke Posted: January 13, 2020 at 10:36 PM (#5915467)
How badly does this report now damage Beltran’s hall of fame case? The MLB went out of their way to name Beltran, I think the only player named, so I have to think that was deliberate. I wonder if his original denial a couple months back rankled the MLB as he was now in Management?

I have to think this might delay his induction. He seems to have said clearly that he did nothing wrong and now that has proven to be untrue. I suspect he gets dinged a bit on the character issue
   1015. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 13, 2020 at 11:59 PM (#5915490)
I have to think this might delay his induction. He seems to have said clearly that he did nothing wrong and now that has proven to be untrue. I suspect he gets dinged a bit on the character issue


I think your first sentence sounds right. We'll see. Maybe the writers will latch onto this as a huge sin a'la gambling and steroids. But I suspect that it'll be more of something that will prompt some writers to withhold a vote for Beltran for a year or two. I can think of two quasi-parallels.

Roberto Alomar missed somewhat narrowly his first year (73.7%), then got in with a huge total in his second try (90.0%) with some writers explicitly saying they withheld a first-ballot vote because of the incident where he spit on an umpire.

Gaylord Perry won over 300 games and a Cy Young award in each league but took three ballots to be elected (he debuted at 68.0%). Some of that was that Perry debuted on the ballot with Johnny Bench, Carl Yastrzemski, and Fergie Jenkins, and then Jim Palmer and Joe Morgan debuted the next year (Perry regularly out-polled Fergie and they were elected together). But I suspect he also lost a few votes because of the spitball.
   1016. Jaack Posted: January 14, 2020 at 12:34 AM (#5915498)
The one thing about Beltran is that I feel like a lot of voters (incorrectly) see him as a more borderline candidate. If not for this, I would have expected Beltran to debut like around 45-50%, climb to the mid 60s on ballot two, and cruise in year three. Now he'll probably debut more around 35-40% but have a lot harder time gaining traction.

Of course, the progressing electorate may feel less inclined to punish him. I still think he's likely in for a 5 or 6 year run on the ballot now.
   1017. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 14, 2020 at 01:14 AM (#5915500)
Beltrán has 3 more years before he’s on the HoF ballot, time which could affect how his Astrogate activity is perceived. One would think he’d avoid anything that might further blemish his record, but he probably wouldn’t get any breaks from MLB if he has any additional serious disciplinary issues. Beltrán should benefit from the less-crowded ballots expected in coming years, so I don’t think he will be affected as much as those who had to share a ballot with 10 less controversial worthies, although some writers in need of a column will likely attempt to seize the high moral ground by carving out some personal standard that excludes Beltrán.
   1018. DanG Posted: January 14, 2020 at 08:20 AM (#5915510)
Beltrán should benefit from the less-crowded ballots
This is why Beltran won't be in for a long ballot run. He is the only real candidate debuting in 2023. It's the year after we say goodbye to Bonds/Clemens/Schilling/Sosa, and the year after a debut class of Ortiz/ARod/Rollins/Teixeira/Nathan/Howard/Fielder. Unless the Eras Committees pick up the slack, the mid and late 20's are going to be lonely days at the Cooperstown podium.
   1019. The Duke Posted: January 14, 2020 at 09:00 AM (#5915515)
It’s been my view that the Era committees will need to be putting 1 to 2 in every year starting next year as the writer’s pool will dry up pretty soon. I only see schilling, rolen and Helton getting in via writers and Helton is a big maybe. Luckily there are about 10-15 guys that have been ignored by writers who deserve strong consideration like Grich, Whitaker, Parker, John, Kaat, Oliva, Boyer, Keith Hernandez, lofton, Edmonds, Garvey etc
   1020. Rally Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:05 AM (#5915539)
Saw on another thread about Buehrle, Hudson, Hunter the top new names on next year's ballot. All HOVG types. But wow, what a dropoff. 4th best by WAR is Dan Haren (35).

2022: A-Rod, Ortiz, Teixiera, Rollins, plus Joe Nathan, Papelbon

2023: Beltran, next is John Lackey (37). Also K-Rod, since save totals get you the most votes for the WAR

2024: Beltre, Mauer, Utley

2025: Ichiro, Sabathia, Kinsler, Tulo, Felix?

Then going out on a limb and trying to guess when active players will retire. The high-WAR active pitchers are all still effective, so I can't predict retirement after their contract is up. Just depends on how long their arms last. Verlander, Greinke, Max, Kershaw, Hamels.

For the hitters it's easier as most of the high WAR guys are not very good anymore and will probably last as long as their contracts do:

2026: no significant players retire after 2020 season

2027: Pujols, Pedroia

2028: Longoria

2029: Cano, Votto

Some of the pitchers will slot in those years, just hard to say who or when.

   1021. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:24 AM (#5915545)
What explains Rolen's surge in the vote? I'm happy about it, but very surprised. He's made HUGE gains this year.
   1022. SoSH U at work Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:34 AM (#5915549)
What explains Rolen's surge in the vote?


Most of all, ballot clearing. He was likely 11th-12th on numerous 10-person ballots last year, and this year opened those spots for him.

Changing electorate. The new voters are more advanced-metric conversant, and that's helping him. Likewise, the purging at the back end will also help (though I'm not sure how much that is reflected in the Tracker).

Also, focus. With the guys who went in last year, he's the most obvious down-ballot candidate for some kind of attention (like Edgar and Walker before him). He has no roids whispers or failed test, nor limitations the way Omar does.

Still, while I said in last year's thread I expected him to be voted in eventually, I never imagined he would be pushing 50 percent of the vote this late into the balloting this year. Because the one thing that he didn't have on his side heading into the year's vote, which is often a factor in Hall cases that build, is meaningful momentum.

   1023. alilisd Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:41 AM (#5915553)
1020: I haven’t looked at it recently, and I agree Hudson and Buerhle are more HOVG types, but from a purely WAR/JAWS perspective they are remarkably similar to Sabathia. Perhaps this has changed a bit since I last looked, but I doubt it. I expect narrative to treat them quite differently though
   1024. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:54 AM (#5915560)
Most of all, ballot clearing. He was likely 11th-12th on numerous 10-person ballots last year, and this year opened those spots for him.

Changing electorate. The new voters are more advanced-metric conversant, and that's helping him. Likewise, the purging at the back end will also help (though I'm not sure how much that is reflected in the Tracker).

Also, focus. With the guys who went in last year, he's the most obvious down-ballot candidate for some kind of attention (like Edgar and Walker before him). He has no roids whispers or failed test, nor limitations the way Omar does.

Still, while I said in last year's thread I expected him to be voted in eventually, I never imagined he would be pushing 50 percent of the vote this late into the balloting this year. Because the one thing that he didn't have on his side heading into the year's vote, which is often a factor in Hall cases that build, is meaningful momentum.


I think Rolen specifically might also be benefiting from any extra attention that Walker is getting this year (as a guy close to election and in his last year). Their cases are very similar - well-balanced skill sets, the offensive skills are perhaps a little hidden / hard to quantify, outstanding fielding at a non-premium defensive position.
   1025. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:56 AM (#5915561)
By WAA they're virtually tied. (Sabathia is actually trailing, albeit by only one win.)

By WAR Sabathia has a small lead. (Four wins over Buehrle, five over Hudson.)

Considering that they're all right around the borderline for the hall, it wouldn't be any grave injustice if any or none of them make it. Although of course I agree with you that Sabathia will probably get in and the other two almost certainly will not.
   1026. SoSH U at work Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:56 AM (#5915562)
I think Rolen specifically might also be benefiting from any extra attention that Walker is getting this year (as a guy close to election and in his last year). Their cases are very similar - well-balanced skill sets, the offensive skills are perhaps a little hidden / hard to quantify, outstanding fielding at a non-premium defensive position.


Possibly. There could be some coattails there.
   1027. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:07 AM (#5915571)
By WAA they're virtually tied. (Sabathia is actually trailing, albeit by only one win.)

By WAR Sabathia has a small lead. (Four wins over Buehrle, five over Hudson.)

Considering that they're all right around the borderline for the hall, it wouldn't be any grave injustice if any or none of them make it. Although of course I agree with you that Sabathia will probably get in and the other two almost certainly will not.


Sabathia had the highest highs (he won a Cy Young, won the Brewers a playoff berth in two months) but also the lowest lows. If you zero out negative WAA/WAR, it barely affects Hudson and Buehrle (Hudson goes up to 31.5 WAA, Buehrle's up to 29.9), whereas Sabathia gains almost four full wins in WAA (32.5). There's also quite a bit more separation between Sabathia and the other two at Fangraphs. They have Sabathia at 66.5/68.8 fWAR (first is FIP, second is RA-9); Hudson's at 48.9/63.0; Buerhle's at 52.3/61.4.
   1028. Booey Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:08 AM (#5915572)
#1025 - Sabathia is Hudson/Buehrle with an extra 30 wins (putting him over 250) and 1000 k's (putting him over 3000), a CYA, twice as much black ink, and an actual peak (5 straight top 5 CYA finishes). I don't think they'll be seen as being all that comparable. And I'm fine with that.
   1029. flournoy Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:17 AM (#5915578)
Also, focus. With the guys who went in last year, [Rolen's] the most obvious down-ballot candidate for some kind of attention (like Edgar and Walker before him). He has no roids whispers or failed test, nor limitations the way Omar does.


I don't necessarily disagree, but what makes him more obvious in this manner than Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, or Jeff Kent? (All of whom have also seen big gains, I might add.)
   1030. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:26 AM (#5915590)
I think Rolen specifically might also be benefiting from any extra attention that Walker is getting this year (as a guy close to election and in his last year). Their cases are very similar - well-balanced skill sets, the offensive skills are perhaps a little hidden / hard to quantify, outstanding fielding at a non-premium defensive position.

Walker and Rolen also have in-season durability issues and similar career lengths (about 2,000 games for both in 16 seasons). I wonder if the voters have traditionally underrated the type of player to average 130 games a year at a non-premium position.

Considering that they're all right around the borderline for the hall, it wouldn't be any grave injustice if any or none of them make it. Although of course I agree with you that Sabathia will probably get in and the other two almost certainly will not.

I've mentioned before that Buehrle is an under the radar candidate for a number of reasons - the perfect game, ace of a WS winner, awesome fielding (which maybe explains the fWAR/bWAR discrepancy), etc. Plus his consistency and durability will be viewed favorably as we continue to see lighter SP workloads. He won't get Sabathia level support, but I can see him starting at 20% and building up over several years.
   1031. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:31 AM (#5915592)
I don't necessarily disagree, but what makes him more obvious in this manner than Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, or Jeff Kent? (All of whom have also seen big gains, I might add.)


In Thibs' Hall-of-Fame tracker, for guys with full ballots, there's a column to the right that lists other players the voter mentioned as guys they would have voted for but for the 10-player limit. On the 2019 sheet, Rolen got more mentions in that column (12) than anybody else (Wagner got 11, Kent got 10, there were a total of 94 mentions of guys who returned for the 2020 ballot if I counted everything correctly). Helton and Sheffield each had 9 mentions; Jones only had 7.

Per the quoted part - "He has no ... limitations" - I think Rolen has fewer clear negatives than most everybody else. What's the knock on Helton? Coors Field. What's the knock on Sheffield? Surly guy, used steroids, claimed to intentionally commit errors. Wagner? Relief pitcher, under 1,000 IP. Vizquel? Lousy hitter. Schilling? #######. Kent? Lousy defense. Jones? Got fat and lazy.

What's the knock on Rolen? There's nothing BAD in his resume. At best you're left with "sure, he was a pretty good hitter; just not a Hall-of-Fame hitter". His career was a little short "for a Hall-of-Famer" (he played over 2,000 games across 17 seasons; that's not exactly "short"). He "only" played 150 games five times.
   1032. flournoy Posted: January 14, 2020 at 11:58 AM (#5915616)
What's Rolen's reputation like in Philadelphia these days? I remember the Rolen/Phillies relationship being really terrible towards the end of his stay, which this article confirms in spades.

Some gems:

Larry Bowa: If [Scott Rolen] even makes contact in either Boston loss [last weekend], we sweep the series. He's killing us.

Seth Levinson (Scott Rolen's agent): So the team struggles and all of a sudden they want to put it on him. Tell Bowa to rest easy. Soon enough, he won't have to worry about Scott at all.


And a bonus from Phil Rogers, the author: [Rolen] would be helpful on either side of Chicago but don't look for the Cubs to give up David Kelton to get him.
   1033. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: January 14, 2020 at 12:00 PM (#5915617)
Thinking about Rolen, I was looking over the 2004 MVP vote. Man what a crazy year. The top seven vote-getters all had OPSs over 1.000. I, for one, am in no hurry to return to that madness.

But here's the really striking thing about the vote: Adrian Beltre got six first-place votes (Pujols got one, and Rolen got one). That means that eight people decided to vote against the guy with the 812 slugging percentage. And who had just set the all-time record for on-base percentage. It's true that Beltre was only one win behind Bonds (and maybe the steroids story was a thing at that point), the difference on defense was pretty stark (22 Rfield for Beltre, -8 for Bonds, to say nothing of the positional difference). But to vote against the guy who just posted the best on-base percentage ever, and the fourth best slugging percentage ever, is just bonkers. Even his batting average, while not top 10, is on the list surrounded by names like Cap Anson and Pete Browning.
   1034. SoSH U at work Posted: January 14, 2020 at 12:02 PM (#5915622)
I've mentioned before that Buehrle is an under the radar candidate for a number of reasons - the perfect game, ace of a WS winner, awesome fielding (which maybe explains the fWAR/bWAR discrepancy), etc. Plus his consistency and durability will be viewed favorably as we continue to see lighter SP workloads. He won't get Sabathia level support, but I can see him starting at 20% and building up over several years.


Buehrle's a weird bird in that he has very little by-season peak, but his career is filled with high-peak moments that old-timey voters have been fond of (see Jack and others). The no-hitter, the very memorable perfect game, the record for most consecutive batters retired (since eclipsed by his former teammate), the fielding prowess, the working quickly thing in an era of increasingly longer games*, the best player on a WS winner distinction. I think like you do that he'll perform better with the voters than his near-equal counterpart Hudson, but ours seems to be very much in the minority.

* Never underestimate how much beat writers appreciate that.
   1035. SoSH U at work Posted: January 14, 2020 at 12:05 PM (#5915624)
But to vote against the guy who just posted the best on-base percentage ever, and the fourth best slugging percentage ever, is just bonkers.


He had won the three previous MVPs. Looked at from the perspective of historical MVP votes (see Willie Mays), to be able to overlook that and continue to vote for him was the bigger surprise.

   1036. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: January 14, 2020 at 12:06 PM (#5915625)
Looked up the batting average list. Post-integration, Bonds' 2004 mark is 26th. So, post-integration, here's where his 2004 ranks on the single-season leaders in slash categories: 26th/1st/2nd. Pre-integration, the only person to rank ahead of his 2004 in slugging percentage was Ruth.

Here are the post-integration seasons ahead of his 2004 in batting average:
Tony Gwynn 1994
Ted Williams 1957
Rod Carew 1977
Larry Walker 1999
Stan Musial 1948
Ichiro Suzuki 2004
Tony Gwynn 1997
Andres Galarraga 1993
Barry Bonds 2002
Ted Williams 1948
Tony Gwynn 1995
Jeff Bagwell 1994
Wade Boggs 1985
Larry Walker 1997
Rico Carty 1960
Joe Mauer 2009
Mickey Mantle 1957
Chipper Jones 2008
Rod Carew 1974
Larry Walker 1998
Wade Boggs 1987
John Olerud 1993
Magglio Ordonez 2003
Joe Torre 1971
Harry Walker 1947
   1037. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 14, 2020 at 12:36 PM (#5915643)
[1033] It’s not surprising to me. Bonds was already getting a lot of backlash for steroids at that point, he’d already won 6 MVPs and he wasn’t on a playoff team. And he still got a supermajority of votes anyway.
   1038. Rally Posted: January 14, 2020 at 12:40 PM (#5915646)
#1036, missing George Brett 1980
   1039. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 14, 2020 at 01:07 PM (#5915665)
He had won the three previous MVPs. Looked at from the perspective of historical MVP votes (see Willie Mays), to be able to overlook that and continue to vote for him was the bigger surprise.

Yeah, he also only started 140 games, while Beltre started 155 (although Bonds won the award the prior year despite only starting 128). And the Dodgers won the division by 2 games over the Giants.
   1040. Booey Posted: January 14, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5915668)
#1033 - I'd take the type of statistical "madness" that was 2004 over the 2019 type of madness every day of the week without hesitation.
   1041. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 14, 2020 at 02:35 PM (#5915692)
#1020

Interesting list.

A-Rod's going to slot in somewhere between Manny and Bonds/Clemens. He's got the second offense, but is inner-circle talent all the way. Say 40-45%.

Ortiz to me is a slightly lesser Sheffield, with different strengths and weaknesses (post-season, attitude in the media, didn't really field a position almost his entire career). I'm guessing he starts around 60% since the ballot will be more clear (Walker, Jeter in/off and Schilling a somewaht probable 2021 election) and anyone wanting to vote for him will ahve space on their ballot. He will be higher than Sheffield of course.

Teixeira and Rollins were great players, but come in a bit short, they may be able to hang on the back of a ballot, but it wouldn't surprise me if they were one and done.

The closers will warrant direct comparison to Wagner. Nathan did is as long and was nearly as effective, Papelbon was essentially as effective with a couple monster peak seasons but only has 725 IP in regular season. I think they both may fall off in year 1.

Beltran was a lock of the 80% variety in year one, now with the Astros scandal, it may take a couple more years.

Lackey's one and done.

K-Rod I actually believe gets a longer look than Nathan and Papelbon. He was similarly valued, but has the single season saves record and more innings than Wagner, Papelbon and Wagner and may have been on a "hall-of-fame track" since his early years. He could be over 5%.

Beltre's getting in >95%, Mauer should get in too, but will be closer. Utley's going to be a Rolen / Helton type case with a higher starting point because of the lack of ballot clogging. He won't get in right away, but could start in the 30-40% range or even higher (based on the growth we've seen from Helton and Rolen this year).

Ichiro! is first ballot but won't be unanimous.

Sabathia's going to be an interesting case. I think he gets in, but maybe not in year one. He does have a pretty normal career with a peak at 25-31, a Cy Young, many years of being an "ace" and has compiled a resonably graceful decline is a little less than full time work. He's like a lower peaking Halladay with more padding on the side with quite a few 3.5WAR or #2 pitcher type years.

Kinsler is a guy who snuck up on everyone and the stats say he's almost qualified, but my recognition he's one and done. Depending on the ballot he could be around 5%.

Tulo peaked higher than Kinsler, but couldn't stay healthy, lots of parallels with Nomar, but I think he falls off in year 1.

Felix could stay on the ballot for many years depends on who else is eligible.

Pedroia might also be in here if he can't come back, it wouldn't surprise me to see him poll higher than Kinsler.

Longroia might not hit the ballot till later, depends on how he's doing but would only be 37 in 2022, he could conceivably play a couple more years.

Pujols is first ballot and may be unanimous

Votto will get in but will take a couple of years.

Cano's got PED issues but otherwise would seem to be a guy in the ALmoar or LArkin mode - with today's writers, probably in the low 90's.

The pitchers (Max, Verlander, Kershaw, Grienke) are locks the first 3 likely to be near 100%. Greinke's going to be in the 75-85% range. Hamels is more borderline and is unlikely to be a first ballot guy, but will stay on until he drops off or is elected.
   1042. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 14, 2020 at 03:20 PM (#5915712)
What's Rolen's reputation like in Philadelphia these days? I remember the Rolen/Phillies relationship being really terrible towards the end of his stay, which this article confirms in spades.

Yeah, it wasn't a love fest at the end. I remember a co-worker who went to every Sunday home game and was pissed that Rolen frequently sat those out. But it was such a long time ago now. His era is sandwiched between the prime eras of Phillies nostalgia - the '93 team and the Utley/Howard playoff teams - so there is no current discussion about him, good or bad. I can also see writers being more understanding towards a player who didn't get along with ogres like Bowa and LaRussa.
   1043. alilisd Posted: January 14, 2020 at 06:48 PM (#5915787)
Considering that they're all right around the borderline for the hall, it wouldn't be any grave injustice if any or none of them make it. Although of course I agree with you that Sabathia will probably get in and the other two almost certainly will not.


That's exactly how I look at as well, Ziggy
   1044. alilisd Posted: January 14, 2020 at 06:49 PM (#5915788)
Their cases are very similar - well-balanced skill sets, the offensive skills are perhaps a little hidden / hard to quantify, outstanding fielding at a non-premium defensive position.


And both, to some extent, had injury problems/difficulty staying on the field
   1045. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 14, 2020 at 07:27 PM (#5915791)
The Tracker still lags last year’s Tracker - 153 votes tallied now, compared to 170 mentioned very early on 1/14/2018 in last years thread. I suspect foul play.
   1046. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 14, 2020 at 07:29 PM (#5915792)
I think Rolen specifically might also be benefiting from any extra attention that Walker is getting this year (as a guy close to election and in his last year). Their cases are very similar - well-balanced skill sets, the offensive skills are perhaps a little hidden / hard to quantify, outstanding fielding at a non-premium defensive position.

Very slight counterpoint: Walker won three batting titles, and his 1997 season had more total bases than anyone had posted since Musial in '48.

Walker and Rolen are similar candidates in a lot of the respects you describe, but their offensive skill levels are not hidden in the same way; Walker has absurd numbers but everyone knows they came in an absurd park and that's hard to adjust for without advanced metrics. Rolen's batting prowess was more conventionally hidden.
   1047. reech Posted: January 14, 2020 at 07:39 PM (#5915796)
The Tracker still lags last year’s Tracker - 153 votes tallied now, compared to 170 mentioned very early on 1/14/2018 in last years thread. I suspect foul play.

Did the HOF request voters to withhold vote announcements to make the announcement more suspenseful?
   1048. The Duke Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:19 PM (#5915836)
I see zero 10 person ballots which don’t include walker/Jeter. So, I wonder whether we will see any 10 person ballots next year. I suppose you could still have people missing from your ballot but I’m guessing 10 person ballots may be a thing of the past. If schilling gets in I definitely don’t think we will see anymore 10 person ballots for quite a while
   1049. SoSH U at work Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:41 PM (#5915841)
So, I wonder whether we will see any 10 person ballots next year.


We'll still see some. Don Amore, for example, listed three additional people he would have voted for had he not maxed his ballot (Jones, Helton and Wagner). But they will dwindle considerably.



   1050. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 14, 2020 at 10:51 PM (#5915843)
So, I wonder whether we will see any 10 person ballots next year.


Sean Forman is another that would have 10 (at least) if Abreu survives as he's left Schilling and Sheffield off but would vote for them on an unlimited ballot.
Patrick Graham (if Abreu Survives) and Dan Hayes will also have 10.

There's also guys like Joe Posnanski - who as of last year could've reasonably voted for 15. Even will elections and guys falling off, I can't see him voting less than 9 in 2021. Lots of other guys who are well-versed in the analytics that will continue to support a bigger hall.

What I do expect is that the number of 8, 9 and 10 vote ballots will be about equal (although I expected that this year too) so we will see.
   1051. JL72 Posted: January 15, 2020 at 12:13 PM (#5915991)
A-Rod's going to slot in somewhere between Manny and Bonds/Clemens. He's got the second offense, but is inner-circle talent all the way. Say 40-45%.


I wonder if A-Rod having been suspended a year actually helps him. Arguably, he was already punished for PED usage, so it is not necessary to withhold a vote for him.

I suspect this argument won't sway too many voters, but I will be curious to see if there is any such effect on voters.
   1052. RJ in TO Posted: January 15, 2020 at 12:34 PM (#5916006)
Arguably, he was already punished for PED usage, so it is not necessary to withhold a vote for him.
This didn't seem to matter for Manny Ramirez.
   1053. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 15, 2020 at 12:48 PM (#5916018)
I think A-Rod's going to have a lotta trouble starting out as high as Manny will finish this year. With Bonds and Clemens there's mostly accusations. Smoke but not a hot blazing fire. With A-Rod he's got a failed test reported in 2002/3 (the leaked anonymous test that nabbed Ortiz as well) and then he flunked again and served his term. There's an easy narrative that he was just a product of steroids the whole way. There's not even much of a B/C argument of "well, he was already a HOFer when he likely started using." And, man, it seems like the press just loved to scourge him. And we all know how the writers like narratives.
   1054. Rally Posted: January 15, 2020 at 12:59 PM (#5916028)
Why would A-Rod finish below Ramirez? Both of them are proven guilty, having been caught multiple times. But A-Rod beat Manny by 140 homers and on defense it's at least a solid SS/3B against a comical corner outfielder.

Is it just because 6 years on the ballot gets more votes than a debut?
   1055. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 15, 2020 at 01:20 PM (#5916041)
Rally, you're right. Just having a low HOF moment.
   1056. Qufini Posted: January 15, 2020 at 01:53 PM (#5916078)
Does anyone know when the results are scheduled to be announced?
   1057. SoSH U at work Posted: January 15, 2020 at 01:56 PM (#5916080)
Why would A-Rod finish below Ramirez? Both of them are proven guilty, having been caught multiple times. But A-Rod beat Manny by 140 homers and on defense it's at least a solid SS/3B against a comical corner outfielder.


Ultimately, Arod will finish ahead of Manny. But there could be some otherwise pro-steroid voters who issue a personal one-year ban.

   1058. Howie Menckel Posted: January 15, 2020 at 02:00 PM (#5916086)
announcement on Tuesday at 3 pm on MLB Network
   1059. Rally Posted: January 15, 2020 at 02:00 PM (#5916087)
Does anyone know when the results are scheduled to be announced?


I think it's one week from today

Edit: or from yesterday
   1060. Qufini Posted: January 15, 2020 at 02:01 PM (#5916088)
Thank you
   1061. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 15, 2020 at 06:15 PM (#5916253)
Bonds has two more votes than Clemens at the moment. This will of course not happen, but if voting ended right now Bonds would be in (75.3%) and Clemens out (74.0%). That would be hilarious.
   1062. Rally Posted: January 15, 2020 at 07:09 PM (#5916272)
I’d be quite happy with that, since it would almost certainly mean Clemens goes in next year.
   1063. The Duke Posted: January 16, 2020 at 01:43 PM (#5916550)
So Beltran decided his HOF chances were stronger just Slinking off into the night. Good call. In four years this will be forgotten but if he had stayed who knows what would have happened
   1064. Srul Itza Posted: January 16, 2020 at 05:12 PM (#5916711)
Given how poorly his last year went, I can see why he would have wanted an edge. Maybe it just didn't help him, or maybe he would have been even worse than -0.7 OWar.
   1065. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 16, 2020 at 05:19 PM (#5916714)

Maybe it just didn't help him

Helped him get a ring.
   1066. The Duke Posted: January 16, 2020 at 07:14 PM (#5916754)
If nothing else this scandal should reinforce why the PED guys shouldn’t be voted in. Level playing fields are critical to credibility. Altuve hugging his shirt looks a lot like canseco injecting drugs in bathroom stalls.
   1067. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 17, 2020 at 12:37 AM (#5916816)
Last year’s Tracker Thread reported 185 ballots tallied on the morning of January 17 (post #1119); we have 157 now. Seems like some voters no longer wish to be listed in advance, or at least not this far in advance. Might be a bunch of individual decisions, or perhaps the Bad Ballot Caucus could no longer withstand the scorn of BBTF.
   1068. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 17, 2020 at 12:50 AM (#5916819)
Last year’s Tracker Thread reported 185 ballots tallied on the morning of January 17 (post #1119); we have 157 now. Seems like some voters no longer wish to be listed in advance, or at least not this far in advance. Might be a bunch of individual decisions, or perhaps the Bad Ballot Caucus could no longer withstand the scorn of BBTF.


Ryan tweeted that he knew of at least one newspaper drop coming up tomorrow - I think he said 6 San Francisco writers. There could still be a few more newspapers planning to do mass releases maybe this weekend for the Sunday paper - is the Sunday paper still a thing? Although I just double-checked and last year's announcement was on January 22nd, so we're pretty much on the same calendar as last year. It wouldn't surprise me if some voters didn't like the incessant criticism - and the thing is, pretty much ANY ballot gets criticized by somebody somewhere for some reason.
   1069. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 17, 2020 at 09:07 AM (#5916834)

There's been more other stuff to write about this offseason, too. A lot more FA activity, the sign-stealing crap, etc.
   1070. The Duke Posted: January 17, 2020 at 09:08 AM (#5916835)
Are we ready to declare walker “in” yet. Seems like he is doing great with 40% in. What was his non-public % last year because he only needs 68% to get in . I suspect schilling falls a bit short but it seems like he gets to 70% this year ?
   1071. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 17, 2020 at 09:22 AM (#5916840)
No, he's still too close to call. Walker had a -11.3% delta between the pre-results and actuals. So he is very much on the line at 85.4%.
   1072. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 17, 2020 at 10:04 AM (#5916854)
The 6 from the SF Chronicle dropped. Two ballots are great(ish), Schulman (voted for Vizquel) and Slusser (who voted for Chavez). Two are poor (Jenkins and Shea) and two are terrible (Kroichick and Killion). But 5/6 voted for Walker whereas only 2/6 voted for him last year. That's right, Shea, Kroichick and Killion all added Walker. I wouldn't have expected that based on prior voting. So they are less terrible I guess.

Lots of Kent votes (and possibly Vizquel to a lesser extent) but makes sense given it's coming from San Francisco.
   1073. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 17, 2020 at 10:07 AM (#5916856)
Are we ready to declare walker “in” yet.


Definitely not, but it is encouraging to see Walker continue to convert voters at a very high rate, initially though it could be a sample size, but as more votes have come in (and flipped the vote on Walker), maybe it is sustainable. I'd suggest that those speculating that he'd top out at 68-70% are probably going to be wrong, he's going to be closer to the line than that.
   1074. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 17, 2020 at 10:23 AM (#5916860)
.
   1075. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 17, 2020 at 10:39 AM (#5916866)

Walker is improving on the non-public ballots. Last year he only got 40.9% of the post-announcement public ballots plus private ballots, but that was up from 27.6% in 2018 and 20.3% in 2017.
   1076. alilisd Posted: January 17, 2020 at 10:41 AM (#5916867)
1072: Jenkins is always bad! But he’s consistent so he’s got that going for him
   1077. Hot Wheeling American Posted: January 17, 2020 at 10:56 AM (#5916873)
Stark: Allow me to explain my 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot
The 10 I voted for

The first five names I checked were the simplest part of this process:

Derek Jeter — that’s a check! An easy check!

Larry Walker and Curt Schilling — two more checks!

Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens — two more checks!

I’ll discuss all of them later. But back to The Ballot, because the next two names weren’t quite as automatic:

Todd Helton — voted for him last year. He hasn’t made a single out since. Check!

Scott Rolen — as I wrote a year ago, I wanted to vote for him last year. Ran out of room on my list of 10. Glad that wasn’t a problem this year. Check!

But then came the final three votes, all of which involved way too much agonizing. More on that shortly. First, here they are:

Billy Wagner — check!

Jeff Kent — check!

Omar Vizquel — check!

That’s two men (Wagner and Kent) I’d voted for in the past — then ran out of room to vote for over a few cycles of overstuffed ballots — plus Vizquel, an excruciatingly difficult choice for my 10th and final slot.

To be honest, the decision to cast those final three votes took me hours of thought and internal debate over more than a week. What about Gary Sheffield? What about Andruw Jones? Did it make sense to vote for Bonds and Clemens but not Manny Ramirez and Sammy Sosa?
   1078. sgt23 Posted: January 17, 2020 at 11:48 AM (#5916898)
Looking like Andruw Jones might eventually get in. He got a huge increase in votes this time. I'm not sure what Alfonso Soriano did to piss so many writers off. He never fail a test, he has pretty good career numbers. I didn't think he would get in but I was sure he would get some votes.
   1079. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 17, 2020 at 11:54 AM (#5916900)
I understand it's a fool's errand to predict the VC voting, and making a guy wait too long stinks.

But I have to admit, I don't really get the hand-wringing over Walker. If he falls like three votes short—which essentially looks like the worst-case type of scenario—do we really think he won't be elected in pretty quick order? Gil Hodges is the one guy I can think of who got anywhere near that level of support and has yet to be elected.

Walker seemed to be well-liked, and I have to imagine they'll be considerable pressure to elect a guy who was thisclose to getting in via the writers.
   1080. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 17, 2020 at 12:04 PM (#5916905)
I'm not sure what Alfonso Soriano did to piss so many writers off. He never fail a test, he has pretty good career numbers. I didn't think he would get in but I was sure he would get some votes.


I wonder what Soriano's totals would be if he hadn't switched to the OF. I know Jeff Kent has a much better case via advanced statistics. But it still seems like a lot of people who vote for Kent mention him having the most HR by a second baseman as a reason. Does a Soriano with 412 HR as a second basemen move the needle?

Because honestly that's about all he has going for him. Defensive metrics don't like him. Had a horrible OBP (419th all-time among LFers)
   1081. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 17, 2020 at 12:05 PM (#5916907)
Been walking through Walker's math. Here's what I'm getting. Please let me know if you're getting the same results. I'm assuming that Thibs' 412-person electorate and 309 required votes hold up.

HARSH REALITY
Walker is currently on pace to fall about 3/4 votes short.

PATHWAY TO VICTORY 1
Walker gets 100% of returning 2019 YES votes
Walker gets the same percentage of private votes as last year
The three partial ballots at the bottom of the Tracker are for reals
No additional newbs or anons
UPSHOT: Walker needs a 62% flip rate among his 76 remaining flip opportunities. His current flip rate is 58%, so he would increase his flips as more ballots are revealed.

PATHWAY TO VICTORY 2
Walker gets 100% of returning 2019 YES votes
Walker holds his 58% flip rate
The three partial ballots at the bottom of the Tracker are for reals
No additional newbs or anons
UPSHOT: Walker needs 33% YES rate from an est 69 private voters. His YES rate last year was 28%. That would mean he'd need three or four flips from the privates.

Are others getting the same/similar results? Man this thing's close.
   1082. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 17, 2020 at 12:13 PM (#5916910)
#1078

If you think Jones is doing well, check out Helton, or especially Rolen and even Wagner. I'd suggest that Helton and ROlen have much better odds of being elected by the BBWAA.

Soriano's bringing homers, some steals and baserunning and a middling batting average to the table while playing some second base. His defense grades out as bad, he doesn't have extreme longevity and the OPS+ (of only 112) is hollow since he rarely took a walk. A .319 OBP in a relatively high offense era is pretty poor. He's above average in less than half of his seasons. Not that WAR is the end all or be all, but he's got 28.2 at bbref. I would've expected a bit higher, but he feels like a 35-40 WAR type of player having seen most of his career. His vote total reflects that quite well.
   1083. Rally Posted: January 17, 2020 at 12:18 PM (#5916913)
I'm not sure what Alfonso Soriano did to piss so many writers off. He never fail a test, he has pretty good career numbers. I didn't think he would get in but I was sure he would get some votes.


I would hope that voters could correctly determine that Soriano has no business being in the HOF even if they don't have any personal animus towards him.
   1084. Rally Posted: January 17, 2020 at 12:29 PM (#5916917)
28.2 WAR would be the 4th worst total ever for a HOF batter, with a 3000 PA minimum. Only Tommy McCarthy, Lloyd Waner, and High Pockets Kelly are worse. 3 of the most notorious HOF mistakes ever.

Using 3000 PA should filter out almost everyone whose HOF case is based on what he did as an MLB position player. All pitchers filter out except Cy Young, and of course I wouldn't want anyone who's in the HOF for their career in the Negro Leagues to end up on such a worst WAR list.
   1085. Rally Posted: January 17, 2020 at 12:32 PM (#5916921)
Soriano was a better player than Dave Kingman of course, another player who has no sabermetric case whatsoever but did hit over 400 homers. Kingman picked up 3 votes in 1992, and did in fact do things to piss a lot of people off.
   1086. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 17, 2020 at 12:33 PM (#5916922)
#1079
Don't disagree with this thinking, but if you're relying on 16 guys to come to a majority consensus, who knows. See Whitaker, Lou for years now. I know Whitaker didn't come close while he was on the ballot, but all major sabermetrics point to Whitaker being an obvious selection, not borderline. If Walker's on the ballot and the committee has 1 or 2 outspoken individuals who bash on Coors, despite his relative ranking and BBWAA voting history, it could take a while. It's not likely, but if the writers vote him in, we don't even have to go down that route.

#1081
My creaky system has him over the line and comfortably so, but I do not trust the results (for Walker), so think it will be quite close. Also assuming 412 person electorate.
Walker had 232 of 425 of 54.59%
Deceased voters were 3/7 for Walker, he's now at 229/418 or 54.78%
Voters lost eligibility were 2/7 for Walker, he's now at 227/411 or 55.23%
Actual new voters are 5/5, now at 232/416 or 55.77%
Estimated new voters (that haven't revealed a ballot) - guessing 5/7 (based on past new voter trends and flip rates of these specific voters-eg. 2017 new voters didn't add Walker right away, but did in 2018 or 2019) he's at 237/423 or 56.03%
Not voting (per tracker) Walker was 1/4. He's now at 236/419 or 56.32%
I'm assuming another 7 voters won't vote (to get to 412)- estimating 4/7 would've voted for Walker. He's now at 232/412 or 56.31%
No drops either. (I'm treating drops as a random event not to be extrapolated, given the exiting candidates (Mussina, Halladay, Rivera, McGriff, Martinez) greatly outweigh the new candidates (Jeter and Abreu with a sprinkling of other votes)).
That means Walker has 180 voters to convert. So far he is at 28/51 which translates to 98 conversions / adds out of 180. He gets 330 votes and 80.1%.

I think that's really high and won't stay the course, but he can afford some drop off in conversions and still get there. If all this holds he needs 49 more converts from a pool of 129 or 38%. Which seems high, but he's at almost 55% through 51 conversion attempts, so that is now not an insignificant sample.

Based on his flip rate on public ballots, it would be statistically improbable that he would not flip any private voters.
   1087. taxandbeerguy Posted: January 17, 2020 at 12:48 PM (#5916927)
Perhaps the biggest takeaway regarding Walker is that he has managed to convert some of the "small hall" voters, voters who have only used 2-6 slots on the ballots. These may be representative of what we think of Private ballot voters, and yet Walker has converted some of them. See examples in Assenheimer (6 votes but included, because of past history), Golen, Greenberg, Guregian, Killion, Kovacevic, Kroichick, Vene - all of his have been very small ballots even in 2017/18 when the ballots were stacked. Comparing the average private ballot to these voters will show that the private ballot generally votes for more names than these voters, so if a decent sample of these "type" of voters are being converted, that should hold true among the private voters.
   1088. soc40 Posted: January 17, 2020 at 01:14 PM (#5916943)
Don't disagree with this thinking, but if you're relying on 16 guys to come to a majority consensus, who knows.


Exactly. Walker would have solid competition in McGriff, as he'll be in that same pool of today's game players and has better traditional stats, extremely likeable among his peers, and has a cool nickname.
   1089. Ithaca2323 Posted: January 17, 2020 at 02:54 PM (#5916985)
I might be mis-remembering, but I could have sworn that I read somewhere that one of the things the powers that be wanted the VC to consider was how a guy did on the BBWAA ballot. Not in the sense that they have to elect everyone close, or dismiss everyone who got no votes (obviously Baines proved that), but that it should be somewhat relevant.

I completely agree that BBWAA election just makes it all easier. But a fair number of people I've seen (not necessarily here) are acting as if his possible non-induction by them is some sort of death blow to his candidacy, and I just don't think that's the case.

   1090. sgt23 Posted: January 17, 2020 at 03:03 PM (#5916990)
Of course Kent will make it in before Jones, he has been on the ballot much longer. That is of course if either of them get in. My point was that Jones had a large increase in votes just for his second year on the ballot.
   1091. SoSH U at work Posted: January 17, 2020 at 03:09 PM (#5916992)
If Larry Walker doesn't get in via the BBWAA, he will be elected at first opportunity by the Vet's Committee. Of that I have no doubt.

   1092. The Yankee Clapper Posted: January 17, 2020 at 03:14 PM (#5916996)
Walker gets the same percentage of private votes as last year
The private ballot voters aren’t immune from the overall voting trends, just less affected by them. As a serious candidate in his last year of eligibility on a ballot with ‘more room’ than in recent years, Walker will almost certainly gain support among all voter categories. We just don’t know if it will be enough, although the results so far and the math in #1086 are encouraging.
   1093. The Duke Posted: January 17, 2020 at 04:11 PM (#5917021)
Stark gave the best vizquel summary I have seen and closed with this

“I’ve thought about this a lot. And you know what the Omar Vizquel debate feels like to me? It falls into a really strange category. It’s about a bunch of people using numbers to try to convince me that my eyes didn’t see what I thought they saw.“
   1094. Booey Posted: January 17, 2020 at 04:27 PM (#5917023)
#1093 - I actually find that amusing, cuz I feel like that's exactly what Vizquel's SUPPORTERS are doing, too. They're using a number - almost 3000 hits! - to try and convince the rest of us that our eyes were wrong and Omar wasn't really a bad hitter for his entire career. He was, though.
   1095. Rally Posted: January 17, 2020 at 04:37 PM (#5917026)
If Walker doesn’t make it this year, I think he’ll follow the example of Morris, Cepeda, Bunning and get in quickly by the VC. Gil Hodges is the only one who did very well by BBWAA and not make it, but he peaked around 60% and if Walker falls short it will certainly be with close to 75%.
   1096. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 17, 2020 at 04:54 PM (#5917029)
Rally, not to mention Nellie Fox and Lee Arthur Smith. It seems like go-time for Walker one way or the other.
   1097. RJ in TO Posted: January 17, 2020 at 04:56 PM (#5917030)
They're using a number - almost 3000 hits! - to try and convince the rest of us that our eyes were wrong and Omar wasn't really a bad hitter for his entire career. He was, though.
I don't think anyone is saying Omar was a good hitter, though. It's more along the lines of him being roughly the same quality of hitter overall as Ozzie (87 OPS+ for Ozzie, vs. 82 OPS+ for Omar, with the split being 87 vs. 84 for the age 23 to 41 years for roughly an equal number of PA), and his defense being good enough to justify selection even with his weak bat. I realize 3 or 5 points of OPS+ adds up to a notable difference over 12000 PA in terms of runs, but it's also effectively nothing when looking at two players career rate stats.
   1098. Qufini Posted: January 17, 2020 at 05:03 PM (#5917034)
Of course Kent will make it in before Jones, he has been on the ballot much longer. That is of course if either of them get in. My point was that Jones had a large increase in votes just for his second year on the ballot.
I'm not so sure Kent gets in. The fact that he's been on the ballot longer works against him. Kent only has 3 more years to climb up from the 30% or so that he's currently getting while Jones has 7. To me, that makes it more likely that Jones gets in via the writers' ballot than Kent. Kent probably still goes in through the Vets ballot- and possibly while Jones is still climbing his way up the writers' ballot.
   1099. Booey Posted: January 17, 2020 at 05:13 PM (#5917036)
#1097 - Almost 3000 hits is definitely one of the bullet points in just about every pro Vizquel argument. That implies his offense was actually a POSITIVE to his case, which of course it wasn't. It was and always will be the glaring negative to his candidacy, no matter how many hits he compiled.
   1100. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 17, 2020 at 05:30 PM (#5917042)
Exactly. Walker would have solid competition in McGriff, as he'll be in that same pool of today's game players and has better traditional stats...

Does he? McGriff has more hits, HR and RBI (he also has over 25% more PA). Walker has higher rate stats (including batting average), and also has more doubles, runs, and steals despite the shorter career. (Obviously run environment matters, but that's not traditional stats.)

Also, both of them could get in.
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