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Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Schoenfeld: Ketel Marte All-Stars

As is often the case, the real mystery is ... hitting coach Darnell Coles?

Walt Davis Posted: June 19, 2019 at 09:35 PM | 5 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: ketel marte, wascally wabbit balls

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: June 20, 2019 at 03:05 AM (#5853916)
I should add this is a couple of days old but nobody seemed to have posted it, sorry if I missed it.
   2. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 20, 2019 at 09:03 AM (#5853937)
I didn't even realize Jorge Soler was still in the majors. He's kind of representative of this group, as a DH who doesn't do much other than hit homers. Hitting 20 of them in less than half a season will get you some notice, but he's also at .243/.304/.522 on the season, for a 114 OPS+.
   3. Walt Davis Posted: June 20, 2019 at 09:13 AM (#5853944)
A 114 OPS+ would lead all Cubs' OF. The Royals are pretty much the perfect team for Soler, they can just let him sit there in the lineup, mash some HRs, maybe become a bit of a fan favorite, maybe become a genuinely good hitter (the talent has always seemed to be there). Same holds for Mancini and the O's.
   4. Jose Goes to Absurd Lengths for 50K Posted: June 20, 2019 at 09:22 AM (#5853947)
I like Schoenfeld but as the "surprise performer on the home run leaderboard" group goes there are a lot of guys there that don't seem surprising to me.

Bell hit 26 homers two years ago.
Lowe hit 28 homers last year (mostly in the minors)
Renfroe hit 26 homers each of the last two seasons
Soler has always been a slugging prospect who just hadn't found it yet

And that's not including guys who have always been seen as good prospects though perhaps not with this kind of power like Dietrich and Swanson. In a year where it seems pretty clear the ball is juiced this doesn't look like a particularly surprising list. There is no Kirby Puckett (4 to 31) or Phil Bradley (0 to 26) nonsense going on here. It's kind of interesting that Coles is the hitting coach, he was a teammate of Bradley's those two years in Seattle. A lot of these guys feel like guys where if you had to predict someone to have a breakout home run season this would have been the list. "If Soler can find some consistency..." or "If Bell can return to his 2017 level..."

   5. Walt Davis Posted: June 20, 2019 at 06:38 PM (#5854277)
#4 ... he pretty much says the same in the writeups. Of course one reason we don't see 4 to 31 or 0 to 26 anymore is that we don't see the 0s and 4s to begin with (or very rarely). Everybody who gets reasonable playing time manages to put at least 10 over the wall ... so 10 to 40 is the new 4 to 31.

OK, apparently a small exaggeration. From 2015-18 there have been 71 qualified seasons below 10 HR so nearly .6 players per team (probably about 1 out every 9 qualified batters). Alcides Escobar looks like the only guy to do it all 4 years. Dee Gordon's done it 3 times and LeMahieu impressively has done it twice despite playing in Coors.

The list include Christian Yelich who seems to have improved his power game. :-) (Not in a 4 sraight to 31 sense though) The second biggest breakout guy looks to be Didi 2015 who had 72 HR over the next 3 years.

Missing here is Max Muncy (presumably the captain of last year's team if there'd been one). Journeyman but now over 2018-19 he has 52 HR in 768 PA. In 2017 AAA, he has 12 HR in 369 PA and all told at AAA just 26 HR in 928 PA.

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