Seems like the mariners emptied the farm. Good deal for Reds and eliminates Seattle from the Soto sweepstakes

Having not dug into the prospects, on the surface this looks like a great return.

The Reds did very well here it seems. They're not going anywhere it seems until past when Castillo would be a FA anyhow and nobody is likely to beat that return in the offseason or perhaps even next season.

Seattle is making a legitimate push to make the playoffs and go somewhere in it. I can't complain about that from their side either.

Seattle gave up a lot here.

It’s somewhat tempered by the truth that acquiring a legit FOR starter helps protect the near-prospect capital that is the still developing talent of both George Kirby and Logan Gilbert.

OTOH, the Ms are still shy of a championship caliber offense. Giving up the top of the farm for pitching (Seattle’s developmental strong suit) doesn’t make getting there any easier.

You don't see teams moving top-20 prospects that often anymore. If any of the other guys are decent. seems like the Reds did super.

Anatomy of a trade reaction from a nominal Reds fan who hasn’t watched his favorite team since April:

1) Read stories of the inevitable Castillo trade. Wonder why the Reds would get rid of such a high-talent, low-cost talent. Wonder why they’re giving up on 2023 already.

2) Notice that both Moustakas (expected) and Votto (unexpected) are deadweight set to make around $40M next year. Give up internal protests about premature surrender.

3) Hear of Castillo trade from eldest son last night. Excited about the Reds just being notable for something.

4) #1, #3, and #5 prospects from Seattle? That sounds great!

5) Ew, the best prospect is only rated #18? That doesn’t sound like a superstar.

6) Oh God, they’re so young and far away.

7) Prospect experts seem to think this is a good haul. That seems good.

8) The Reds’ best management combo in my lifetime was headed by a woman who believed the Nazis were good at first. Regardless of how highly rated the prospects are, I have no confidence they will pan out…or if they do the rest of the team will suck. Resume discouragement until further notice.

You’d think Seattle would have learned their lesson from the Adam Jones / Chris Tillman / George Sherrill for Erik Bedard trade back in 2008. Castillo Is going from a home park that’s pretty good for hitters to one that’s pitcher friendly, so that’s in his favor. But pitchers are so volatile that I’d be real hesitant to empty my farm for one unless he was a beast ala prime Verlander. Is Castillo that kind of beast?

Is Castillo that kind of beast?

He's pretty close. Since 2019 he's got an ERA+ of 134 and 5.3 WAR per 162 games.

I think you also have to consider how long it's been since Seattle has done anything. They've got a legitimate chance to make the playoffs for the first time in two decades. I'd want to see them at least making a push if I were an M's fan.

Castillo is a guy the MLBPA should be concerned about. Coming out of 2020 and entering his arb period , he seems to have never missed a single start, has a 124 career ERA+ and about 3.5-4 WAR per full season ... and he gets just $4.2 M. He repeats that sort of performance in 2021 (4.5 WAR) and only gets a raise to $7.3? Rafael Devers had similar service time, had just one big season on his resume, got $4.6 in 2021 then a huge raise to $11 M in 2022 after a 3.5 WAR season. To date, Castillo has been paid more like he's been Schwarber or Benintendi or Max Kepler or Ian Happ.

It might be understandable if he'd been fragile but he hasn't missed a turn. It might make sense if this was a 5-year deal or something in that position players are more reliable. But this is a one year at a time system. I suspect he's not alone -- I just looked at some pitchers for the Musgrove thread and those guys generally got paid like this too -- at least they were a bit worse and more fragile than Castillo. Gerrit Cole too in his first 2 arb years only made about $11 M -- got a big raise to $13 after a 5 WAR season.

This felt like a bit of an overpay in prospect capital, made nearly necessary by the lack of pitching depth that was assembled over the off-season. (There’s literally no one in Tacoma that you would want to start a Major League Baseball game right now.) Hancock could come up from Arkansas and start a game or three, but he’s bumping up against innings limits fairly soon, just like Kirby and potentially Gilbert. (So could Dollard.)

The Mariners will miss their two best prospects, and still haven’t patched 2b or the lack of 3 healthy outfielders at any given time.

The playoff push is exciting, but we all know the Mariners are not in the same class as Astros and Yankees….

The Mariners will miss their two best prospects, and still haven’t patched 2b or the lack of 3 healthy outfielders at any given time.

The inability to develop/fix Kelenic is really glaring. There's your OF solution, but you know Seattle and hitting prospects.

I do agree about Seattle and hitting prospects, but Julio and Cal Raleigh show some recent change in the trend.

Yankees fans who dreamed of seeing Castillo pitch at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday will get their wish.

of course, he'll be in a Mariners uniform - and he'll face the Yanks again in Seattle five days later....

It is something of an odd trade in that the rotation has been one of Seattle's strong points. Without question, it's also full of guys you'd rather not have to rely coming down the stretch, including some big ERA-FIP discrepancies. And of course Castillo is a big step towards sorting out next year's rotation when hopefully Ray returns to form too so it's not just a win now move. But as noted above, this team could really use a big bat at either OF or DH. (There's probably not much you can do about Frazier at 2B other than hope he returns to form.) Obviously giving up these guys (and more) for Soto would have been a more obvious way to improve the team, but more costly. Who's the next biggest bat on the market, Contreras?

Still, there's a lot to like about the 2023 Mariners. Obviously they need most of Raleigh, France, Trammell, Gilbert and Kirby to repeat and hopefully they get Kelenic straightened out. But the oldest important players on next year's team will be just 31 -- that's an interesting looking team.

Wrong thread. Duh.

It is something of an odd trade in that the rotation has been one of Seattle's strong points.

Agreed. BUT Kirby pitched so few innings last year, that his load has to be managed, and Gilbert should be too. And the lack of folks to cover spot starts/injury subs is glaring.

Now that they've wiped out their prospect capital, they better spend on offense and/or magically fix Kelenic.

Raleigh, France, Trammell, Gilbert, Kirby will mostly need to repeat. Julio does also need to continue being Julio, most importantly of all.